“All of us might wish at times that we lived in a more tranquil world, but we don't. And if our times are difficult and perplexing, so are they challenging and filled with opportunity.” - Robert F. Kennedy
Welcome to March! And with March comes no more Wednesday evening thoroughbred racing in Florence, KY. So with that option gone, I look to Thursday's card for success, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Gamer (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 6 Son of Thunder (ML 10-1)
# 7 Pancake House (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Captain Hank (ML 10-1)
# 8 Manchester (ML 12-1)
# 9 The Thunderer (ML 8-1)+
# 11 Kansas Comet (ML 4-1)
First things first: Best of luck to Turfway Park track announcer Jimmy McNerney with keeping Son of Thunder separate from The Thunderer. As to my opinion regarding the expected short priced runners, I relegated the Dale Romans trained Kansas Comet to backup "C" status. I could be proven wrong, but I think Kansas Comet could use another race off the extended layoff; an opinion which is somewhat supported by the lack of a public work for Kansas Comet since his race of February 11, where he took the Show behind Gamer.
My hope for a price here is the aforementioned Son of Thunder. While Son of Thunder, to put it kindly, has had difficulties making it into the starting gate, Son of Thunder has been consistent when competing at route distances. So if it all falls apart up front, then Son of Thunder could be the one running best late.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 50k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Queridinha (ML 12-1)
B's
# 1 Illiogami (ML 4-1)+
# 4 Fancy Martini (ML 10-1)
# 5 Bali Belle (ML 10-1)+
C's
# 2 Fair Game (ML 8-1)
# 6 Vezpa (Brz) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Ravella (ML 2-1)+
Scratch # 8 New Roo (ML 6-1)
For those who note such things, none in this field are in for the $50k price tag.
Since I'm using more than half the field on my main ticket, it's pretty clear that I consider this contest to be wide open. I would not criticize any punter that resorted to punching the "ALL" button in this leg; though I personally chose to go in a slightly different direction.
Since I consider this contest to be wide open, it made sense to me to give priority to those entrants expected to go off at a price. After all, if this handicapper's preference was towards those favored by the public, then it really wouldn't be considered such a wide open contest; would it?
For that reason, I've relegated Vezpa (Brz) and Ravella to backup status, rather than giving either a position on my main ticket. A wide open contest, by definition, means that runners at high odds have an expectation of winning that is very close to, if not indeed equal to, those that will pay a much lower price. It therefore appears reasonable to me that, while both Vezpa and Ravella have an excellent chance of winning, their payout potential relative to their win expectation doesn't justify increasing the cost of my investment. Is that the correct opinion? Well, I'll know for sure soon enough.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Sweet Lady Ivanka (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 10 Jubilee Bridge (ML 7-2)
# 11 Batyah (ML 4-1)+
# 12 Story Hour (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Puffin (ML 15-1)
# 2 Capital Allocation (GB) (ML 30-1)+
# 3 Music Amore (ML 30-1)
# 5 Classic Coyne (ML 3-1)+
# 6 Rosia Bay (ML 6-1)
# 7 Glacken's Cause (ML 30-1)+
# 8 French Cuffs (ML 12-1)+
# 9 Supertaleofhoudini (ML 30-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 De Joria (ML 6-1) and # 14 Hashtag Winner (ML 15-1)
Music Amore and Glacken's Cause are the only two runners in this field available for purchase at the $25k claiming price.
Ravella's performance in the preceding Race 6 could provide a nice insight into how Story Hour does in this event. With that said, this is another race that appears to me to be quite contentious. Unlike the previous contest, however, I don't see the public's money going towards any one or two specific runners. Rather, I see this race as one that could have a Post Time Favorite in the 4-1 neighborhood. For that reason, I did not avoid using on my main ticket those with short prices on the Morning Line. Instead, this is a leg where I believe that one can simply focus on those with the highest expectations of winning, and let the odds take care of themselves.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Daring Do (ML 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Climb to Glory (ML 20-1)
# 8 Exhibit Hall (ML 8-1)
# 12 Never Tell Patti (ML 10-1)+
# 13 Midnight Meghan (ML 4-1)+
Scratch # 1 Running Doe (ML 10-1); # 4 Rapping Wish (12-1); # 10 Wild Acclaim (ML 7-2); and # 14 Active Lane (ML 15-1).
Daring Do, trained by Wesley Ward, took the Show in her debut last time out, finishing behind Place runner Lady Lowery, who graduated in her next race. I'd be very much surprised to see Daring Do leave the gate at odds higher to 3-5. With that opinion in mind, I don't see any point to using any other runner with Daring Do on the main ticket. I mean, you either think Daring Do is going to win at very low odds, and thus make her a single; or you think Daring Do is a vulnerable odds-on Favorite, in which case you relegate her to backup status, lest she cost you more to use than she promises to return in victory. But again, that's just my opinion.
Alright; for those who like charts and/or don't have the time for all the above verbiage, here are my Selections in living color:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here's how I translated the above Selections into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 3 with 4 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,3,5 with 4,11 with 2 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,10 with 1,3,4,5 with 4,10,11,12 with 2 $24.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,3,5 with 4,11 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 7 with 4,11 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,3,5 with 2,5,7,8 with 2 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,3,5 with 4,11 with 12,13 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,8,11 with 3 with 4 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,6 with 4 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 1,3,6,9 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 4 with 3,8 $1.00
Total: $52.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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