"Our task is not to bring order out of chaos, but to get work done in the midst of chaos." - George Peabody
Taking an overview of the Final Four sequence in Florence, KY this evening, in my opinion each of the contests appear to be quite competitive. Such would suggest that the sequence will yield multiple winners at above average odds. It should be noted that there have been times in the past, indeed, more times than I care to recall, that I have considered a forthcoming sequence to be chaotic, only to watch it turn into a chalk parade. By the same token, there have been too many times when I predicted that a sequence would be extremely formful, only to watch long shot after long shot light up the tote board. With that cautionary review in mind, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N2X - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Tiberius Mercurius (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Cool Rags (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Buy Me Candy (ML 7-2)+
# 3 Seventyseven Stone (ML 20-1)
# 8 Global Sensation (ML 3-1)+
For the benefit of all whom may be curious, # 4 Max Express (ML 30-1) and Tiberius Mercurius are the only two entrants in this field who are running with the $40k price tag on their head.
With the Morning Line Favorite, Tiberius Mercurius, as my "A" Selection, it stands to reason that I should have given strong consideration to making Tiberius Mercurius a big ticket single. And it's quite likely that I may find myself later today regretting not having done so.
But my pre-race assessment is that Cool Rags is deserving of a place on my main ticket. Cool Rags tends to perform well when competing at a distance of ten furlongs on the synthetic. Cool Rags can also be expected to go to Post at a very nice price; most likely at a higher price than his Morning Line odds. So it'll be two deep for me on my main ticket in this opening leg.
RACE 7 - The Big Daddy $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Candy Overload (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Here Mi Song (ML 3-1)
# 4 Night Time (ML 4-1)+
C's
# 1 Bad Beat Brian (ML 12-1)+
# 2 Gun It (ML 12-1)
# 5 Anaconda (ML 4-1)
# 6 Pole Setter (ML 30-1)
# 7 Nobody Listens (ML 7-2)
# 9 Detroit City (ML 12-1)+
I think I could have spread wider in this leg, as I don't anticipate any of the contenders going to Post at less than 5-2. Having said that, I think I've got the coverage that I need with just three runners on my main ticket. But just in case, all entrants in this field will be used in some capacity; because, having decided that this race will be highly competitive, I should position myself for the possibility that this highly competitive race will produce a winner that is, for the most part, ignored by the wagering public.
RACE 8 - Clm $18k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Union Gen. George (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Can't Hide From Me (ML 6-1)+
# 6 Military Force (ML 4-1)+
C's
# 1 On a Spree (ML 10-1)
# 3 Heirloom Kitten (ML 20-1)
# 4 P H Factor (ML 6-1)+
# 7 Graded On a Curve (ML 20-1)+
# 10 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 5-1)+
# 11 Patriot Drive (ML 15-1)
# 12 Graceful Kitten (ML 30-1)
# 12 Graceful Kitten (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Malibu Time (ML 15-1) and # 13 Happy Camper (ML 10-1)
Another leg where I'm using all runners in some capacity. Note that whoever sets the Morning Line on the Turfway Park contests also thinks this will be a wild one, as they decided that 4-1 is the appropriate odds for the Morning Line Favorite, Military Force.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Gold Ghost (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Talkin' Cash (ML 7-2)
# 4 Pearse (ML 10-1)
# 5 Loyal Company (ML 9-2)
C's
# 8 Regal Rey (ML 12-1)
# 9 Furious Anger (ML 12-1)
# 10 Isocline (ML 8-1)+
# 13 Roenick (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 12 David's Tuition (ML 20-1) and # 14 Big Elm (ML 12-1)
I wasn't impressed with the three experienced runners going to Post in this contest (Isocline, Regal Rey, and Roenick); therefore, the four that I'm using on my main ticket here are all making their racing debut. I also feel justified in using both of the (likely) short priced entrants, Gold Ghost (trained by Wesley Ward) and Talkin' Cash (trained by Brad Cox), as I am anticipating my main ticket having winners at odds high enough to still provide value even should a very low odds runner emerge victorious in the nightcap.
Alright; here are the above selections in colorful chart form:
And, with a tip of the cap to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 8 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 4,8 with 5,6,8 with 1 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 3,4,8 with 2,5,6,8 with 1,2,4,5 $48.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 4,8 with 5,6,8 with 1 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,9 with 5,6,8 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4,8 with 4,7,10 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4,8 with 5,6,8 with 10 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 8 with 1 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,5,6,7 with 8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 1,3,11,12 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 8 with 8,9,13 $1.50
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 8:25 EST / 5:25 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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