"Be on time, bust your butt, play smart, and have some laughs while you're at it." - Whitey Herzog
A full plate of chores meant no post from me this past weekend. Since I didn't want to wait until next weekend to practice my typing skills, I decided to put together the following weekday play, which features a $100k Stakes for Pennsylvania bred runners being held in Erie, PA. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Presque Isle Downs.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $5k B - Eight and a Third Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rolling Mo (Morning Line 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Hoxie (ML 10-1)
# 2 Animauxselle (ML 12-1)
# 4 Midnight Leap (ML 20-1)
# 5 At Least (ML 9-2)
# 6 Thisaintjumpstreet (ML 9-5)
# 7 Lacee (ML 8-1)
# 8 Troll Crossing (ML 20-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies and mares who have either:
1) Not won two races after December 31, 2020; OR
2) Which have not won a race since July 26, 2021.
Honest, I really did try to beat the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, Rolling Mo. I certainly don't see Rolling Mo getting the nice, easy set up that she did her last go round. But on the other hand, I couldn't find a legitimate reason to select one of the longshots in this field, other than to just stab and pray. Likewise, I didn't see any justification to double the cost of my main ticket by adding the other short priced runner, Thisaintjumpstreet, as I don't think that Thisaintjumpstreet, who has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two races, is up to the task at hand.
Feeding my confidence in Rolling Mo is the solid five furlong work that she put in over this main track on the 15th. So I'm beginning the sequence by using Rolling Mo all by herself on the main ticket, with the rest of the field relegated to being backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Lumi (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Megan Makin Money (ML 6-1)
# 7 Roaringlikethunder (ML 8-1)
# 8 Devra Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Swag Is On (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Indian Spideroo (ML 15-1)
# 3 Win With a Rose (ML 8-1)
# 5 Warrior's Ransom (ML 5-1)
# 6 Keystone Warrior (ML 4-1)
# 10 Peach Street (ML 15-1)
So we go from a single to using half the field. Yeah, this one strikes me as being pretty wide open; so those of you with larger budgets may wish to spread wider.
Lumi took the Show in her debut two starts back, and will get the blinkers put back on for this contest. The key for Lumi will be if she can maintain interest after completing the turn. Roaringlikethunder showed less than nothing in her debut at Laurel last time out. Perhaps the change of scenery along with wearing the hood will prompt Roaringlikethunder to actually try today.
The others that I'm using on the main ticket are those debut runners that strike me as most qualified, with the remainder of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] The Hard Spun 100k - Eight and a Third Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Nimitz Class (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Wait for It (ML 9-2)
# 5 Nice Ace (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Cool Comedian (ML 15-1)
# 6 Good On Ya (ML 6-1)
# 7 Viski Jones (ML 8-1)
# 7 Viski Jones (ML 8-1)
# 8 Newstome (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 1 Valentine Bug (ML 10-1)
Were I a braver man, Nimitz Class would be a single here. Nimitz Class took the Place in the $100k open company Concern Stakes at Laurel Park last time, and in the race prior to that was victorious in the PA bred only $100k Danzig Stakes. At the risk of being redundant, Nimitz Class strikes me as the class of this field.
But there are some concerns with Nimitz Class. This will be the first time that Nimitz Class will be competing on a synthetic surface. This will also be Nimitz Class' first time at a route distance. So I thought it best to include a couple of others on the main ticket, while using all others as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - Md $7.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Temple Owl Liam (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Gaisgeach (ML 20-1)
# 3 Chipper Ron (ML 10-1)
# 4 Call Me Peak (ML 5-1)
# 6 Shirley's Sherman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Dun Right (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Grays Jungle (ML 15-1)
# 8 Nathaniel's Hope (ML 6-1)
# 8 Nathaniel's Hope (ML 6-1)
# 9 Hero Dragon (ML 20-1)
Again I'm using more than half the field; though I'm not as confident that this contest is as wide open as the non-Claiming Maiden contest above. Perhaps with a little more sleep I could have done a better job of narrowing this one down.
Temple Owl Liam has shown good early speed in his races against more expensive stock. Gaisgeach ran well last time out in his first try over a synthetic surface, and Gaisgeach could improve further with the class drop.
Chipper Ron is dropping in for a tag for the first time. Chipper Ron also ran well over the grass at Mountaineer; so maybe he'll take to the synthetic surface here.
Call Me Peak was up on the pace for the first time in his career last time out; maybe Call Me Peak is starting to figure this out. Shirley's Sherman could be the one running best late.
Dun Right has show steady improvement in each of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 4 with 3 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,4,7,8,9 with 3,4,5 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 with 4 with 3 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,5,6,10 with 3 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 2,6,7,8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 3 with 5.8.9 $1.50
Total: $55.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 3:18 EDT / 12:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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