While I liked the look of the card at Gulfstream Park Saturday, I didn't like the look of the weather; I figure there'll be time enough to deal with the South Florida rains. Having not seen anything I liked on Saturday's card at Hollywood Park, I decided to focus my efforts on Sunday's Pick Five in SoCal.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
Sugar Spice projects to be the quickest out of the gate in this field. Sugar Spice hit a hot streak after first donning blinkers, winning three out of four, with the only setback coming on the wet dirt at Santa Anita. She tried a first level allowance two starts back and was outclassed, though she was still able to make a clear lead at the start. Sugar Spice was back at today’s level in her last start, where she took the Place as the Post Time Favorite.
Sugar Spice is definitely an “A”; Inner Groove, taking a big class drop, is probably an “A” as well. Tempted to drop Rossi Reserve from the contenders list, as conditioner Javier Sierra does not often get his picture taken after contests. On the other hand, Rossi Reserve just missed her last two times out at this approximate class level; so it’s probably a good idea to make room for her on the ticket.
RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)
Echo Zulu, trained by Peter Miller, is getting some huge class relief here after competing in ungraded stakes in three of his last four contests. Takem by Surprise should be the early front runner and could get loose on the lead. Heyyoucan (also trained by Miller) and Clouds Clearing both took the Place in separate contests at this class level in their respective last starts.
Echo Zulu could be a single “A” based on the class drop; but my confidence in two year olds, especially at this level, isn’t especially high. Will probably pair up in the “A” category with the other part of the uncoupled Peter Miller entry, though Takem by Surprise deserves some consideration for that role as well, based upon his early speed.
RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)
Kobe’s Back exited his debut a stakes winner after coming from dead last at the half to win the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes over this main track back in June. It should be noted that, despite the way that victory was obtained, Kobe’s Back may not be a true closer in running style, but rather may have just been the victim of a poor break; note the bullet gate work on October 30. So don’t be surprised if Kobe’s Back is closer to the pace in the early going in today’s event.
Papa Turf and Shared Belief each broke their maidens with Beyer Speed Figures that set them well apart from the rest of the field. Shared Belief has the added bonus of having the best Tomlinson Rating in the field for today’s seven furlong distance. I expect to be using all three contenders as “A’s”.
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf
Contenders:
# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)
English Crossing, Fantastic Mizz, and Ricspretentiousgal all show a victory at this level or higher within the last three races in their form. Meltarib took the Place behind Ricspretentiousgal her last time out with a trip that was far from smooth. High Jinks (Brz) is the Wild Card here, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while adding blinkers.
Tempted to make the John Sadler trained Ricspretentiousgal a single “A” based upon the addition of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle (note that the Sadler/Bejarano duo has produced more than thirty percent winners over the past couple of years). But there are several ways to go here, so this will be a game time decision.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
Tribal Dress defeated older last time out, and took the place over this track at today’s distance against more expensive. Firendesire took the Place at a higher class level last time out, and defeated cheaper two back. Both of Tribal Peace’s victories have come over this main track; but they’ve also come against state-bred competition. Anita Marie was claimed by Owner and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer her last time out for $25k; that was a quick love affair. Still, the presence of Bejarano in the saddle suggests that Anita Marie deserves some consideration for the top spot.
Currently leaning towards making Tribal Dress a single “A” here; though her half-sister Tribal Peace may join her in that category. If I do go single “A” here there’s a good chance that I’ll add a some more entrants to the “C” list.
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my Pick Five tickets posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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