2013 Breeders' Cup - How Will the Main Track Play?

My initial impression while viewing the races yesterday was that there was track bias favoring early speed in effect at Santa Anita.  A closer look at Thursday's Charts seems to confirm that was the case.

Now keep in mind that, because the sample size is so small (since there are so few dirt races on a typical day) it’s impossible to state with one hundred percent certainty that there was in fact a track bias, either favoring or opposing early speed.  After all, anything can happen in any given race.  However, a close examination of Thursday’s results seems to suggest that there was a bias favoring early speed in effect, as every winner in the five races on the main dirt track was either in the lead or within a length of the lead at the half mile mark.  No horse that was in the lead in the stretch in the five races on the dirt Thursday was passed before reaching the wire.  Only one of those five horses was the Post Time Favorite; three of the five paid greater than eighteen dollars to Win.  Such data would indicate that there was a track bias favoring early speed.

Looking at the Place horses in those five races likewise seems to confirm the bias in favor of early speed.  In four of the five dirt races the Place horse was either on the lead or in second at the first quarter mark (i.e. the point of the race two furlongs past the starting gate).  The one exception was Race 2; where, ironically, it was the Post Time Favorite (Frandontjudge) who was passed by not one but two horses in the stretch, eventually finishing fourth.

Phrasing the above data another way: in four of the five races on the main dirt track at Santa Anita Thursday the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and second at the half mile mark of the race.  In the one exception, the eventual Exacta was comprised of the horses who were first and third at the half mile mark.

So what does that mean for the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday?  Possibly nothing.  After all, while the trend is clear, the sample size is small.  Also keep in mind that track officials watch the races too.  They may decide to do some maintenance on the track in order to get it to play more fair.

There will be three races on the main dirt track Friday prior to the Breeders’ Cup events.  Hopefully those will provide us with the answers we need as to how the track will play the rest of the day.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo