Saturday, November 2, 2013

11/2/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Preview

Day Two of America's Day at the Races.  But before I go any further, I just want to be sure that everyone is aware of The Million Dollar Finish.  The goal of the contest is to pick the Top Ten finishers in order in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.  I estimate that your odds of actually winning are slightly less than your odds of having a three way with Kate Upton and Scarlett Johansson six nights in a row.  But it’s a million dollars; it’s free to register; so why not give it a shot?

RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Artemis Agrotera (Morning Line 3-1)
# 7 Untapable (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 9 Sweet Reason (ML 5-2)
# 10 She's a Tiger (ML 6-1)

Sweet Reason is going to be seriously compromised if the main track at Santa Anita plays Saturday as it did on Friday.  But even on a track that plays fair I see no reason why Artemis Agrotera can't beat Sweet Reason again.

RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Dank (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tiz Flirtatious (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 6 Marketing Mix (ML 7-2)
# 7 Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-1)

The invading champ versus the local hero: Dank vs Tiz Flirtatious.  Speaking as a fan, I'm really looking forward to this one.  Marketing Mix is in my opinion just a step below those two but with Stevens on board she may get the best trip; while Laughing just might steal it all on the front end.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dance to Bristol (ML 5-1)
# 12 Sweet Lulu (ML 8-1)

C’s

# 6 Ismene (ML 20-1)
# 10 Great Hot (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Groupie Doll (ML 5-2)

What a difference a year makes; or does it?  Groupie Doll is the Morning Line Favorite, but I think she can be beat (though I'm nowhere near brave enough to leave her off the ticket altogether).  Dance to Bristol would probably be my single A on a track playing fair.  Leaving Judy the Beauty off the tickets; I'm hoping today isn't the day that she gets her first win on real dirt.  Really rolling the dice on this one.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 12 Mizdirection (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 3 Chips All In (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reneesgotzip (ML 5-1)
# 6 Boat Trip (ML 8-1)

She did it before and she can do it again.  Mizdirection's form heading into today's event looks almost identical to her form going into this race last year.  Reneesgotzip should improve off her performance last year; a Mizdirection / Reneesgotzip Exacta looks like a good play.

OK, putting it all together:

Play this one for one dollar:

RACE 4: 1, 7

RACE 5: 1, 3

RACE 6: 5, 8, 12

RACE 7: 12

Cost: $12.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 4: 9, 10

RACE 5: 1, 3

RACE 6: 5, 8, 12

RACE 7: 12

Cost: $6.00

RACE 4: 1, 7

RACE 5: 6, 7

RACE 6: 5, 8, 12

RACE 7: 12

Cost: $6.00

RACE 4: 1, 7

RACE 5: 1, 3

RACE 6: 6, 10, 11

RACE 7: 12

Cost: $6.00

RACE 4: 1, 7

RACE 5: 1, 3

RACE 6: 5, 8, 12

RACE 7: 3, 4, 6

Cost: $18.00

TOTAL COST: $48.00

And just for fun, here's a small $2 Pick Six Ticket you can use to get some cheap Saturday afternoon action:

RACE 7: 12

RACE 8: 6, 13

RACE 9: 4, 8

RACE 10: 7. 9

RACE 11: 8

RACE 12: 9

Cost: $16.00

Post Time for Race 4 is scheduled for 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT.  Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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