Day One of The Breeders' Cup - here at last! Here's the Late Pick Four play (with just some brief notes) that I'll be making today:
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Bobby’s Kitten (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Giovanni Boldini (ML 7-2)
# 4 Outstrip (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 13 Bashart (ML 6-1)
I’m leaning heavily on Bobby’s Kitten here, Lasix ban be damned. If he wins, I’m in great shape. If he loses, I still have a shot if one of the other logical contenders win. If a longshot upsets this field, then all my tickets become worthless.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Verrazano (ML 3-1)
# 11 Pants On Fire (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 4 Brujo de Olleros (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Broadway Empire (ML 12-1)
# 12 Goldencents (ML 4-1)
Verrazano seems to be the class of a very talented field, especially when one considers that this is a “catch distance” race for horses that have their problems handling the classic distances but don’t typically fare well in sprints. Pants On Fire seems to be in best form. Because those two are both starting from the far outside, I felt the need to spread a bit with some C’s. Had he not scratched # 1 Taptowne (ML 15-1) would have been among the C’s.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Chriselliam (ML 6-1)
# 14 My Conquestadory (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 Nesso (ML 20-1)
# 2 Al Thakhira (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vorda (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Street Sailing (ML 15-1)
# 10 Clenor (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Ready to Act (ML 8-1)
Juvenile fillies; are there any horses on the lot more inconsistent? Oh, yes, there is: juvenile fillies being taken off Lasix. I think Chriselliam has the best form in the field, while My Conquestadory has the best upside. I took a stand against # 12 Testa Rossi (Fr) (ML 8-1) and # 13 Sky Painter (ML 15-1), the Exacta in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, because I wasn’t impressed with that race; so if any of the four horses coming out of the Miss Grillo win this one, then my play is dead.
RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Royal Delta (ML 8-5)
# 5 Beholder (ML 5-2)
# 6 Princess of Sylmar (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 2 Authenticity (ML 8-1)
# 3 Close Hatches (ML 6-1)
There may not be much meat in this one, but what meat there is is all choice. If I should be fortunate enough to be alive to all four of the above when we get to this leg I’ll be sure to throw a deuce on # 1 Street Girl (ML 30-1) to Win, so that at worse I’ll break about even.
Putting it all together, if we play the all A’s ticket for a buck and the others for fifty cents, it should look something like this:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 4, 13
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 4, 6, 12
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10, 11
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 2, 3
Cost: $4.00
TOTAL COST: $ 61.00
And because it's The Breeders' Cup, here's a Pick Six ticket for those of you looking for some cheap action. Play it with all the confidence that you would a Power Ball ticket:
RACE 5: 12
RACE 6: 8, 9
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 10
RACE 9: 8, 14
RACE 10: 4, 5, 6
Cost: $12.00
Post Time for Race 5 is scheduled for 4:02 EDT / 1:02 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:25 EDT / 2:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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