Quoting myself from back in February:
"As so often happens to favorites in the final race of the day on cards throughout the country, Compromising Txt was over-bet, leaving the gate at even money (Final Odds 1.0-1). Compromising Txt grabbed the early lead, but decided to call it a day before entering the stretch, finishing dead last, over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Tonzatrouble (12.4-1). For his effort, Compromising Txt was rewarded with new connections, as he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Daniel W Taylor. Don't be surprised if Compromising Txt's next outing is in a four-and-a-half furlong event at Los Alamitos."
Compromising Txt is scheduled to make his first start since that February event tonight, as he is entered in Race 7 at Los Alamitos, at a distance of four-and-a-half furlongs. The Morning Line Odds for Compromising Txt are 5-1.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 15, 2013
Sunday, June 9, 2013
June 9, 1973 - Secretariat Wins The Belmont Stakes
Didn't want to let the fortieth anniversary of this remarkable event pass without comment.
Listening to Chick Anderson’s call for me is a lot like watching Casablanca; the quotes are just so well known, and they stay with you forever:
"They’re on the turn, and Secretariat is blazing along! The first three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and four fifths. Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn! Sham is dropping back. It looks like they’ll catch him today, as My Gallant and Twice a Prince are both coming up to him now. But Secretariat is all alone! He’s out there almost a sixteenth of a mile away from the rest of the horses! Secretariat is in a position that seems impossible to catch. He’s into the stretch. Secretariat leads this field by 18 lengths, and now Twice a Prince has taken second and My Gallant has moved back to third. They’re in the stretch. Secretariat has opened a 22 length lead! He is going to be the Triple Crown winner! Here comes Secretariat to the wire. An unbelievable, an amazing performance! He hits the finish 25 lengths in front! It’s going to be Twice a Prince second, My Gallant third, Private Smiles fourth, and Sham, who had it today, dropped back to fifth."
Quoting from the official DRF chart of the 1973 Belmont:
“SECRETARIAT, sent up along the inside to vie for the early lead with SHAM to the backstretch, disposed of that one after three-quarters, drew off at will rounding the far turn and was under a hand ride from Turcotte to establish a record in a tremendous performance.”
Possibly the most difficult thing to teach a race horse is to go against its natural herd instinct. In the wild, leaving the herd is courting danger; safety is with the pack. Run too far away from the herd and you could be running right into the mouth of a predator.
So you try to teach the horse that it’s okay to run away from the pack when its on the race track; that there are no predators lying in wait for them down the home stretch. You also have to teach them that they’re not just out for an afternoon jog with their friends; that the other horses are competitors, and they need to leave those competitors as far behind as they can after passing them, and not slow down to give them a chance to catch up.
Most horses never really learn those things. It’s just too contrary to their survival instincts. Running far away from the herd goes totally against untold centuries of breeding in the wild.
Secretariat didn’t just beat a race that day. He beat Nature.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Listening to Chick Anderson’s call for me is a lot like watching Casablanca; the quotes are just so well known, and they stay with you forever:
"They’re on the turn, and Secretariat is blazing along! The first three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and four fifths. Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn! Sham is dropping back. It looks like they’ll catch him today, as My Gallant and Twice a Prince are both coming up to him now. But Secretariat is all alone! He’s out there almost a sixteenth of a mile away from the rest of the horses! Secretariat is in a position that seems impossible to catch. He’s into the stretch. Secretariat leads this field by 18 lengths, and now Twice a Prince has taken second and My Gallant has moved back to third. They’re in the stretch. Secretariat has opened a 22 length lead! He is going to be the Triple Crown winner! Here comes Secretariat to the wire. An unbelievable, an amazing performance! He hits the finish 25 lengths in front! It’s going to be Twice a Prince second, My Gallant third, Private Smiles fourth, and Sham, who had it today, dropped back to fifth."
Quoting from the official DRF chart of the 1973 Belmont:
“SECRETARIAT, sent up along the inside to vie for the early lead with SHAM to the backstretch, disposed of that one after three-quarters, drew off at will rounding the far turn and was under a hand ride from Turcotte to establish a record in a tremendous performance.”
Possibly the most difficult thing to teach a race horse is to go against its natural herd instinct. In the wild, leaving the herd is courting danger; safety is with the pack. Run too far away from the herd and you could be running right into the mouth of a predator.
So you try to teach the horse that it’s okay to run away from the pack when its on the race track; that there are no predators lying in wait for them down the home stretch. You also have to teach them that they’re not just out for an afternoon jog with their friends; that the other horses are competitors, and they need to leave those competitors as far behind as they can after passing them, and not slow down to give them a chance to catch up.
Most horses never really learn those things. It’s just too contrary to their survival instincts. Running far away from the herd goes totally against untold centuries of breeding in the wild.
Secretariat didn’t just beat a race that day. He beat Nature.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/13 BHP R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Paralyzing Eyes, the four year old filly that we've been following, made her eighth career start Saturday, in Race 2 at Hollywood Park, a $20k Maiden Claimer. The distance was seven furlongs, a first for Paralyzing Eyes; however, it had no effect on the result, as once again Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 85.50) finished out of the money.
So this was Paralyzing Eyes fourth race in which she was in for a tag of $20k. We'll continue to follow to see if she drops down further in class, or simply calls it a career.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So this was Paralyzing Eyes fourth race in which she was in for a tag of $20k. We'll continue to follow to see if she drops down further in class, or simply calls it a career.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
6/8/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results
Some days you're the windshield, and some days you're the bug. Saturday was definitely our day to be the bug.
Race 8 - The Just a Game saw most of our tickets die a quick death as our two A's, # 3 Centre Court (Final Odds 2.60*) and # 6 Mizdirection (3.00) finished fourth and fifth, respectively. But we still clung to life, as one of our C's, # 2 Stephanie Kitten (3.00), with John Velazquez on board, crossed the wire a half length ahead of # 7 Better Lucky (11.10). On a day without many bright spots, we can at least be pleased that the one entrant in the Just a Game that we left totally uncovered, # 5 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (6.80), finished dead last.
Race 9 - The Woody Stephens brought down our last remaining ticket, as # 7 Forty Tales (8.90), ridden by Joel Rosario, finished a half length in front of our two A's, # 1 Declan's Warrior (4.80) and # 9 Clearly Now (4.80). That result made moot the result of Race 10 - The Manhattan Handicap, won by # 1 Point of Entry (0.55*) by a length and a half over # 5 Optimizer (5.80), giving Johnny V his second win of the sequence. A bright spot for us is that, as in Race 8, the top five finishes in the Woody Stephens were the five horses that we had covered (in one form or another). However, in retrospect, there proved to be no justification for covering any horse other than Point of Entry in the Manhattan Handicap; our decision to do otherwise costing us an additional twelve dollars that would have been better saved for another day.
Finally (mercifully) we come to the final leg of the sequence, Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes, won by # 12 Palace Malice (13.80) and Jockey Mike Smith, with two of our A's, # 7 Oxbow (10.10) and # 5 Orb (2.20*) taking the Place and Show, respectively.
Which, in retrospect, was just as well; because if you're going to lose, you might as well lose without doubt. While I can go back to the previous three legs of this sequence and see things that I should have done better, there is no way that I can honestly tell you that, given a clearer thought process, I would have had Palace Malice on any of my tickets. If I were to have expanded my selections in the Belmont, I would have added # 2 Freedom Child, # 3 Overanalyze, and # 10 Will Take Charge to my tickets before I would have gotten around to adding Palace Malice to my play.
While you can excuse Palace Malice's performance in the Kentucky Derby due to the addition of blinkers in that race, how do you excuse his failure to hold on to win the Blue Grass in his race before that one? Or his defeat in the Louisiana Derby by Revolutionary by over seven lengths? Or that fact that, prior to Saturday, Palace Malice's only career win was when he broke his maiden back in August of last year? My hat's off to those who were wise enough to forecast Palace Malice winning the Belmont Stakes; but if I were to tell you that selecting Palace Malice to win Saturday was a play I could envision myself making, I would be lying through my teeth.
So splat went all our Pick Four tickets against the windshield, as we could only manage one winning A selection in the sequence. Meanwhile, those who correctly played the winning combination of 2 / 7 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $447.00 for every fifty cents wagered. May The Almighty bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Just a Game saw most of our tickets die a quick death as our two A's, # 3 Centre Court (Final Odds 2.60*) and # 6 Mizdirection (3.00) finished fourth and fifth, respectively. But we still clung to life, as one of our C's, # 2 Stephanie Kitten (3.00), with John Velazquez on board, crossed the wire a half length ahead of # 7 Better Lucky (11.10). On a day without many bright spots, we can at least be pleased that the one entrant in the Just a Game that we left totally uncovered, # 5 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (6.80), finished dead last.
Race 9 - The Woody Stephens brought down our last remaining ticket, as # 7 Forty Tales (8.90), ridden by Joel Rosario, finished a half length in front of our two A's, # 1 Declan's Warrior (4.80) and # 9 Clearly Now (4.80). That result made moot the result of Race 10 - The Manhattan Handicap, won by # 1 Point of Entry (0.55*) by a length and a half over # 5 Optimizer (5.80), giving Johnny V his second win of the sequence. A bright spot for us is that, as in Race 8, the top five finishes in the Woody Stephens were the five horses that we had covered (in one form or another). However, in retrospect, there proved to be no justification for covering any horse other than Point of Entry in the Manhattan Handicap; our decision to do otherwise costing us an additional twelve dollars that would have been better saved for another day.
Finally (mercifully) we come to the final leg of the sequence, Race 11 - The Belmont Stakes, won by # 12 Palace Malice (13.80) and Jockey Mike Smith, with two of our A's, # 7 Oxbow (10.10) and # 5 Orb (2.20*) taking the Place and Show, respectively.
Which, in retrospect, was just as well; because if you're going to lose, you might as well lose without doubt. While I can go back to the previous three legs of this sequence and see things that I should have done better, there is no way that I can honestly tell you that, given a clearer thought process, I would have had Palace Malice on any of my tickets. If I were to have expanded my selections in the Belmont, I would have added # 2 Freedom Child, # 3 Overanalyze, and # 10 Will Take Charge to my tickets before I would have gotten around to adding Palace Malice to my play.
While you can excuse Palace Malice's performance in the Kentucky Derby due to the addition of blinkers in that race, how do you excuse his failure to hold on to win the Blue Grass in his race before that one? Or his defeat in the Louisiana Derby by Revolutionary by over seven lengths? Or that fact that, prior to Saturday, Palace Malice's only career win was when he broke his maiden back in August of last year? My hat's off to those who were wise enough to forecast Palace Malice winning the Belmont Stakes; but if I were to tell you that selecting Palace Malice to win Saturday was a play I could envision myself making, I would be lying through my teeth.
So splat went all our Pick Four tickets against the windshield, as we could only manage one winning A selection in the sequence. Meanwhile, those who correctly played the winning combination of 2 / 7 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $447.00 for every fifty cents wagered. May The Almighty bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, June 8, 2013
6/8/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Belmont Stakes day in New York City; and while there will be no Triple Crown winner this year, it should still be an exciting event, with the Kentucky Derby Winner and the Preakness Stakes Winner squaring off as part of a field of fourteen. There's a full menu of wagering options being offered; I'll focus here on the middle Pick Four, comprised of all Graded Stakes. As time is short, I'll be brief.
RACE 8 - THE JUST A GAME
# 3 Centre Court (Morning Line 3-1) has been in the Exacta in each of her last ten starts; the last seven being Graded Stakes; the last three being victories.
# 6 Mizdirection (ML 7-2) has shown the ability in her career to win on the front end and to win by closing late. She'll be ridden today by Mike Smith; note that in her most recent ten races, her best Beyer Speed Figures are in the four races where Smith was on board.
# 1 Hungry Island (ML 4-1) has three career victories on the Belmont grass, and her Speed Figure pattern shows a nice, steady increase.
# 2 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2) loses the services of Julien Leparoux (who rode her to victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile her last time out) to Centre Court, but gets in return John Velazquez, who was on her back for all her prior stakes wins.
# 7 Better Lucky (ML 12-1) is no stranger to cashing in at big prices, as only one of her career wins has come at Final Odds of less than 6-1. Joel Rosario will be on board for the first time; if he can get Better Lucky to run as she did in winning the Grade 1 Matriarch, she could light up the tote board.
RACE 9 - THE WOODY STEPHENS
# 1 Declan's Warrior (ML 8-1) is just a neck away from being a perfect five-for-five for his career. He has two wins over the Belmont main track, and his come from behind style could work well against this bunch.
# 6 Zee Bros (ML 4-1) is the Bob Baffert entry in this contest. In his four race career Zee Bros has twice shown the ability to post triple digit Beyers, and twice shown the ability to tire in the drive. Toss a coin as to which one it will be today.
# 7 Forty Tales (ML 5-1) closed fast to win the Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs back in April. He's won at six furlongs and he's won at eight furlongs; but he's winless in two attempts at today's distance of seven furlongs. Still, his late running style makes him a contender in this field filled with early speed.
# 9 Clearly Now (ML 8-1) came from sixth place to win the Grade 3 Swale, and just missed beating Declan's Warrior to the wire in the Grade 3 Bay Shore.
# 11 Let Em Shine (ML 3-1) dominated his last time out over the artificial surface of Hollywood Park, posting a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Even if you toss that race, the 98 Beyer Let Em Shine posted in winning an Optional Claimer in his race before that on the Santa Anita dirt makes him a contender in this field. Edwin Maldonado makes the trip in from the West Coast to ride Let Em Shine today (as I type this, Let Em Shine is Maldonado's only mount on the card).
RACE 10 - THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP
#10 Point of Entry (ML 3-5) is the clear standout in this field; even if you’re looking at Past Performances for the first time in your life you can figure that out. But will he run? Point of Entry was scratched out of the Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill at the last minute (after the Pick Four had begun) because of track conditions. Will his connections do that again today?
# 4 Optimizer (ML 6-1) was second to Wise Dan in the aforementioned Turf Classic, and was less than a length behind Skyring at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie his last time out. Optimizer's Beyers have been consistent; a good sign that he's always going to fire.
# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1) has a pair of Grade 2 victories in his last three races, making him the only horse in this field besides Point of Entry to have earned a Grade 2 win.
RACE 11 - THE BELMONT STAKES
Not much to say here. You have your Derby winner # 5 Orb (ML 3-1) along with your Preakness winner # 7 Oxbow (ML 5-1); both are well matched, though neither should be getting the dream trips that they received in each of their respective victories. # 14 Golden Soul (ML 10-1) and # 9 Revolutionary (ML 9-2) were Place and Show (respectively) in the Kentucky Derby; if I had to single in this race, it would probably be Revolutionary, as his Beyer pattern makes him the most likely entrant to take another step forward. The filly, # 13 Unlimited Budget (ML 8-1) is bigger than many of the boys in this field; if she can last, she can win. # 6 Incognito (ML 20-1) in my wild card pick; Incognito's pedigree for the distance makes him a roll of the dice worth taking.
Running out of time; here goes:
One Dollar Tickets:
RACE 8: 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 9
COST: $1.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 7
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 6, 7, 11
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 6, 13, 14
COST: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - THE JUST A GAME
# 3 Centre Court (Morning Line 3-1) has been in the Exacta in each of her last ten starts; the last seven being Graded Stakes; the last three being victories.
# 6 Mizdirection (ML 7-2) has shown the ability in her career to win on the front end and to win by closing late. She'll be ridden today by Mike Smith; note that in her most recent ten races, her best Beyer Speed Figures are in the four races where Smith was on board.
# 1 Hungry Island (ML 4-1) has three career victories on the Belmont grass, and her Speed Figure pattern shows a nice, steady increase.
# 2 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2) loses the services of Julien Leparoux (who rode her to victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile her last time out) to Centre Court, but gets in return John Velazquez, who was on her back for all her prior stakes wins.
# 7 Better Lucky (ML 12-1) is no stranger to cashing in at big prices, as only one of her career wins has come at Final Odds of less than 6-1. Joel Rosario will be on board for the first time; if he can get Better Lucky to run as she did in winning the Grade 1 Matriarch, she could light up the tote board.
RACE 9 - THE WOODY STEPHENS
# 1 Declan's Warrior (ML 8-1) is just a neck away from being a perfect five-for-five for his career. He has two wins over the Belmont main track, and his come from behind style could work well against this bunch.
# 6 Zee Bros (ML 4-1) is the Bob Baffert entry in this contest. In his four race career Zee Bros has twice shown the ability to post triple digit Beyers, and twice shown the ability to tire in the drive. Toss a coin as to which one it will be today.
# 7 Forty Tales (ML 5-1) closed fast to win the Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs back in April. He's won at six furlongs and he's won at eight furlongs; but he's winless in two attempts at today's distance of seven furlongs. Still, his late running style makes him a contender in this field filled with early speed.
# 9 Clearly Now (ML 8-1) came from sixth place to win the Grade 3 Swale, and just missed beating Declan's Warrior to the wire in the Grade 3 Bay Shore.
# 11 Let Em Shine (ML 3-1) dominated his last time out over the artificial surface of Hollywood Park, posting a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Even if you toss that race, the 98 Beyer Let Em Shine posted in winning an Optional Claimer in his race before that on the Santa Anita dirt makes him a contender in this field. Edwin Maldonado makes the trip in from the West Coast to ride Let Em Shine today (as I type this, Let Em Shine is Maldonado's only mount on the card).
RACE 10 - THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP
#10 Point of Entry (ML 3-5) is the clear standout in this field; even if you’re looking at Past Performances for the first time in your life you can figure that out. But will he run? Point of Entry was scratched out of the Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill at the last minute (after the Pick Four had begun) because of track conditions. Will his connections do that again today?
# 4 Optimizer (ML 6-1) was second to Wise Dan in the aforementioned Turf Classic, and was less than a length behind Skyring at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie his last time out. Optimizer's Beyers have been consistent; a good sign that he's always going to fire.
# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1) has a pair of Grade 2 victories in his last three races, making him the only horse in this field besides Point of Entry to have earned a Grade 2 win.
RACE 11 - THE BELMONT STAKES
Not much to say here. You have your Derby winner # 5 Orb (ML 3-1) along with your Preakness winner # 7 Oxbow (ML 5-1); both are well matched, though neither should be getting the dream trips that they received in each of their respective victories. # 14 Golden Soul (ML 10-1) and # 9 Revolutionary (ML 9-2) were Place and Show (respectively) in the Kentucky Derby; if I had to single in this race, it would probably be Revolutionary, as his Beyer pattern makes him the most likely entrant to take another step forward. The filly, # 13 Unlimited Budget (ML 8-1) is bigger than many of the boys in this field; if she can last, she can win. # 6 Incognito (ML 20-1) in my wild card pick; Incognito's pedigree for the distance makes him a roll of the dice worth taking.
Running out of time; here goes:
One Dollar Tickets:
RACE 8: 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 9
COST: $1.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 7
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 6, 7, 11
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 6, 13, 14
COST: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, June 7, 2013
Chantal Sutherland Un-Retires
Since I noted here last October when Chantal Sutherland announced that she was retiring, I thought it only proper that I now note that Ms Sutherland returned to riding Friday. Sutherland was aboard Solidus (Final Odds 5.40) in Race 4 at Woodbine, riding the four year old gelding to a fifth place finish.
As to why she returned, Sutherland is quoted in the above linked article as saying, "I just started dreaming about it again. All of a sudden I started waking up at 4 a.m. I missed it too much; I love all the people at the racetrack."
I'm sure that you'll all join me in wishing Ms Sutherland the best of luck as she resumes her career in the saddle.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
As to why she returned, Sutherland is quoted in the above linked article as saying, "I just started dreaming about it again. All of a sudden I started waking up at 4 a.m. I missed it too much; I love all the people at the racetrack."
I'm sure that you'll all join me in wishing Ms Sutherland the best of luck as she resumes her career in the saddle.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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