Today's Super Derby Day at Louisiana Downs, and to celebrate they're offering a $100k guaranteed all-stakes Pick Four in Races 8 - 10 (inclusive). So while the fields are small, there may be value to be found.
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 7, 2013
9/7/13 LaD 7 - The River Cities - Preview
While it's not a part of the all-stakes Pick Four at Louisiana Downs that I expect to be playing Saturday, I thought the following contest was worth a look:
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 2, 2013
9/1/13 GG R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel is the four year old gelding that we've been following since he was claimed by Trainer Victor Trujillo out of this race last August; a race in which City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80, and finished fifth. Saturday, City Chapel made his sixteenth start for the Trujillo barn, in Race 4 at Golden Gate (Clm $8k NW2L Maiden, Claiming and Starter races for $6,250 or less not considered) run over a distance of five and a half furlongs on the synthetic surface.
Breaking last from the gate Saturday, City Chapel (Final Odds 2.00) came three wide into the stretch and was closing at the wire; but not quickly enough, taking the Show, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Ol' Steely Blue (6.50). The outcome marked the third race in a row (and seventh out of his last nine) that City Chapel has finished in the money. The third place finish was worth $1260 in purse money to City Chapel's connections, thus bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Trujillo for $4,000 to $30,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking last from the gate Saturday, City Chapel (Final Odds 2.00) came three wide into the stretch and was closing at the wire; but not quickly enough, taking the Show, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Ol' Steely Blue (6.50). The outcome marked the third race in a row (and seventh out of his last nine) that City Chapel has finished in the money. The third place finish was worth $1260 in purse money to City Chapel's connections, thus bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Trujillo for $4,000 to $30,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/2/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Three out of four. I'm sensing a trend here.
Actually, three out of four is more than just a little misleading; as the one we missed we never really had a chance of having (unless we had decided to go "ALL" in that leg). But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Race 8 saw us get off to a good start, as one of our two "A" selections, # 2 Minds Eyes (4.40) finished a neck in front of our other "A", # 5 Heir Kitty (3.80). At least as good, we handicapped this one well enough to not give "A" contender status to the Post Time Favorite, # 4 Hail Mary (1.40*), as the pace meltdown we anticipated came to pass.
We had the winner in Race 9, # 1 Ethnic Dance (5.90), as one of our "C" selections. Ethnic Dance did what we anticipated he might in our analysis, as he took control of a paceless group and led them gate to wire around the track. However, since we had him as a "C", it meant we had to work without a net in the final two legs, and get our "A" contenders home.
And we did just that in Race 11, as our lone "A" contender in that leg, # 11 With a Miracle (2.40*) took the finale by finishing a half length in front of # 8 Gelila (7.80). So if we could have clicked with either of our two "A" selections in the third leg of the Pick Four, we would have collected.
But we did not; as we did not do a good job of handicapping Race 10. We had anticipated that the first time starters would have an edge in this one, and thus made two of them, # 8 Missing Groom (6.90) and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh (1.10*) our "A" selections for the race. But while we did accurately pick the two first time starters that would run the best out of the four debuters in this contest, we were totally off base as to how the experienced runners would perform; as all four slots in the Superfecta were filled by entrants who had previously competed; with # 2 Storm Reveler (30.50) crossing the wire first, winning the photo from # 7 California Jade (14.30), with # 4 Ajac (3.60) less than a length behind. So we totally blew that one; not just by not even considering either of the two horses that made up the Quinella, but by totally misreading the ability of the experienced runners in the field relative to those competing for the first time.
So while we were holding this ticket with three of the four winners:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
in the end it was just as worthless as the others we were holding, giving us a net loss of $40.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who did have the correct winning sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,148.95 for their fifty cent wager. And among those who did have it were my good buddy Justin T, who had the handicapping smarts to use # 2 Storm Reveler in Race 10 as an "A" selection. May God bless Justin T and all others who had it as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Actually, three out of four is more than just a little misleading; as the one we missed we never really had a chance of having (unless we had decided to go "ALL" in that leg). But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Race 8 saw us get off to a good start, as one of our two "A" selections, # 2 Minds Eyes (4.40) finished a neck in front of our other "A", # 5 Heir Kitty (3.80). At least as good, we handicapped this one well enough to not give "A" contender status to the Post Time Favorite, # 4 Hail Mary (1.40*), as the pace meltdown we anticipated came to pass.
We had the winner in Race 9, # 1 Ethnic Dance (5.90), as one of our "C" selections. Ethnic Dance did what we anticipated he might in our analysis, as he took control of a paceless group and led them gate to wire around the track. However, since we had him as a "C", it meant we had to work without a net in the final two legs, and get our "A" contenders home.
And we did just that in Race 11, as our lone "A" contender in that leg, # 11 With a Miracle (2.40*) took the finale by finishing a half length in front of # 8 Gelila (7.80). So if we could have clicked with either of our two "A" selections in the third leg of the Pick Four, we would have collected.
But we did not; as we did not do a good job of handicapping Race 10. We had anticipated that the first time starters would have an edge in this one, and thus made two of them, # 8 Missing Groom (6.90) and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh (1.10*) our "A" selections for the race. But while we did accurately pick the two first time starters that would run the best out of the four debuters in this contest, we were totally off base as to how the experienced runners would perform; as all four slots in the Superfecta were filled by entrants who had previously competed; with # 2 Storm Reveler (30.50) crossing the wire first, winning the photo from # 7 California Jade (14.30), with # 4 Ajac (3.60) less than a length behind. So we totally blew that one; not just by not even considering either of the two horses that made up the Quinella, but by totally misreading the ability of the experienced runners in the field relative to those competing for the first time.
So while we were holding this ticket with three of the four winners:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
in the end it was just as worthless as the others we were holding, giving us a net loss of $40.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who did have the correct winning sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,148.95 for their fifty cent wager. And among those who did have it were my good buddy Justin T, who had the handicapping smarts to use # 2 Storm Reveler in Race 10 as an "A" selection. May God bless Justin T and all others who had it as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 1, 2013
9/1/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
Analysis can be found in the previous post. Went with # 11 With a Miracle as my single "A" in the finale; was tempted to do likewise with Den's Legacy in the 2nd Division of The Del Mar Derby, but decided listing Dice Flavor in the "A" column was the wiser move. So with all that, here's the way that I'll be playing today's Pick Four at Del Mar:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $2.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3, 4
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 3, 5, 6, 10
Cost: $16.00
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $2.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3, 4
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 3, 5, 6, 10
Cost: $16.00
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/1/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Sunday, right in the middle of a three day Labor Day weekend. It's also Del Mar Derby Day in SoCal Sunday, with four of the eleven races being stakes. Anyway, with that said, let's get to our preview of today's Pick Four:
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Hail Mary (Morning Line 5-2) may be the fastest horse in this event. She certainly has the best Beyer Speed Figures in this field, being the only entrant to have ever earned a Beyer in the nineties; and she’s done it twice in her six race career. The problem with Hail Mary is that she (so far) has done her best running on the front end; and there are several in this group that will be fighting for the lead in the early going, including # 3 Tribal Gal (ML 10-1); # 6 Zia Zia Zia (ML 8-1); and # 8 Kinz Funky Monkey (ML 6-1). There is definitely a high probability of pace meltdown in this one.
# 2 Minds Eyes (ML 3-1) is making her third start for Trainer John Sadler; overall career start number eight. In her last outing Minds Eyes came within a length of victory at this class level; the time before that, also at this level, she missed by just a half length to Tasty Treat, who in turn went on to win The Daisycutter Handicap. Minds Eyes does her best running late, so the anticipated pace meltdown should be to her benefit. Note that the rider today is Bejarano; as Leparoux, who rode her those last two times out, will be on top of Hail Mary today.
# 5 Heir Kitty (ML 3-1) returns to the track after a six month vacation. Trainer Peter Miller does quite well with horses coming off a long freshening, clicking with a Winning Percentage above .30 for entrants returning after being away more than 180 days. Heir Kitty will be getting some class relief here, after having competed against stakes competition in seven of her nine career contests. Like Minds Eyes, Heir Kitty does her best running late; if she’s ready to fire, she could be the one getting her picture taken when this is all over.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (2nd Division) (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
# 1 Ethnic Dance (ML 12-1) makes a pretty big jump in class in this one, having done all his previous running against state bred competition. On the other hand, Ethnic Dance’s Beyers certainly fit in with the rest of this field, and his early running style gives him an advantage over what looks to be a pretty paceless affair. If Ethnic Dance can break clean from the rail and smoke the grass early, he just might steal this one before the others can get into gear.
# 6 Olympic Blue (ML 15-1) is another, like Ethnic Dance, that can go early if need be. Olympic Blue does have prior stakes experience, having taken the Show in both the Oceanside and the Tsunami Slew. Olympic Blue is definitely a long shot in this one; but you never want to casually dismiss a Jerry Hollendorfer trained entrant.
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 6-1) could find himself leading the pack early, if either Ethnic Dance or Olympic Blue fail to fire. The more likely scenario is that Den’s Legacy will be sitting right off the pace early, pressing some very easy fractions, and then find himself with a lot left in the tank as he leads the field into the stretch.
# 9 Dice Flavor (ML 9-2) came from the clouds to nip Den’s Legacy at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The question is will Dice Flavor, a deep closer, have enough pace to chase in this one in order to make a late charge to the finish line. Garrett Gomez, who was on board for the La Jolla win, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington Park his last time out, isn’t a deep closer like Dice Flavor; but Infinite Magic does do his best running late, and therefore he may also be compromised by today’s anticipated pace scenario. Note that Admiral Kitten, who took the Place behind Infinite Magic in the American Derby, came back to win the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes his next time out.
# 8 Kid Dreams (ML 8-1) finished off the board in his only stakes attempt; but he merits consideration as he enters this contest with the best last out Beyer. While today’s event is a furlong longer than that contest, Kid Dreams was sired by 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid; so the extra eighth of a mile shouldn’t pose any difficulties.
Currently leaning towards using # 4 Den's Legacy and # 9 Dice Flavor as my two "A" contenders in this one.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Unusually Green (ML 10-1) barely picked up his feet in his debut back in June; but he goes for a barn that gets one third of its entrants home when coming back after a two-three month vacation, with an ROI of $3.44. Couple that with the rider switch from Quinonez to Pedroza, and factor in the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and you have to give Unusually Green at least a puncher’s chance in this one.
# 3 Belgata (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Adam Kitchingman, who hits approximately 17% of the time with debuters. The offspring of Belgata’s sire, Good Journey, win approximately 11.6% of the time in their initial tries.
# 4 Ajac (ML 5-1) took the Show at this level his last time out at five and a half furlongs over this track; the extra half-furlong today should help, as Ajac has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field. And as much as I love Chantal Sutherland, the rider switch to Rafael Bejarano must be seen as a positive.
# 5 Oh Daddy Oh (ML 5-2) makes his career debut for a barn that wins 23% of the time with first time starters. Oh Daddy Oh was sired by Scat Daddy, whose descendants get their picture taken after their first race approximately 14% of the time. Oh Daddy Oh’s public workouts are somewhat lacking in quantity, beginning as they do less than two months ago; but the works show no obvious breaks in pattern, which is definitely a plus.
# 8 Missing Groom (ML 9-2) was sired by Colonel John; whose offspring (in a very small sample size) have won approximately 18% of the time in their first attempts. Missing Groom is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who gets wins from his first time starters approximately one fourth of the time.
# 9 Charisma Code (ML 5-1) had a horrible trip his last time out and finished dead last. In each of his two prior tries at this level, both on synthetic surfaces, Charisma Code finished in the money.
None of the experienced runners in this contest has ever earned a Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of par for this level; nor have any of the experienced runners ever been the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior events. For those reasons, it makes sense to give strong consideration to the first time starters in this one; and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh and # 8 Missing Groom strike me as the two best in that category. Expect me to lean on those two when it comes time to make my Pick Four play.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 11 With a Miracle (ML 7-2) took the Place her last time out (as the Post Time Favorite), in a contest at this level but half a furlong shorter in length. In addition to having the best last out Beyer in this field, With a Miracle also has the best career Beyer on a synthetic surface among those competing in this event.
# 5 Flashy Dame (ML 9-2) took the Show behind With a Miracle her last time out, crossing the wire approximately three quarters of a length behind that one. The third place finish was Flashy Dame’s first in the money finish since breaking her maiden back in June 2012; not so coincidentally, it was also Flashy Dame’s first time in for tag in her career.
# 7 Chestnut Moon (8-1) goes first off the claim for Trainer Matthew Chew, who is one for five with such. The five times that Chestnut Moon has finished in the Exacta in her seventeen race career have all come in two turn events; so it’ll be interesting to see how she does in today’s one turn sprint for her new trainer.
# 6 Tiz Anna (ML 8-1) is trained by Vladimir Cerin, who has yet to get a winner home in the current Del Mar meet (though his horses have taken the Place eight times in twenty-nine tries). Tiz Anna will be trying winners for the first time today; but her Beyers do match up well with the rest of the field, and she has finished in the Trifecta in all four of her prior races on synthetic surfaces.
# 10 Dolphin Shorts (ML 8-1) is another trying winners for the first time today, albeit in a much shorter career than Tiz Anna; as Dolphin Shorts was able to break her maiden in just her second try. Dolphin Shorts is trained by Mike Mitchell, who gets his winners to do it again their next time out approximately 22% of the time.
# 3 Willetta (ML 12-1) took the Place over this track her last time out, albeit against cheaper ($16k N2L). Willetta gets a change in rider today, as the apprentice Irving Orozco is swapped out for Chantal Sutherland.
Right now I’m leaning towards making # 11 With a Miracle my single “A” contender in this one, as that will go a long way towards keeping costs down. But it’s very likely that I’ll also use # 5 Flashy Dame as an “A”; which will mean a lot shorter spread in the other contests. Certainly a matter requiring more thought.
Post Time for Race 8, which kicks off the Pick Four, is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my play posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Hail Mary (Morning Line 5-2) may be the fastest horse in this event. She certainly has the best Beyer Speed Figures in this field, being the only entrant to have ever earned a Beyer in the nineties; and she’s done it twice in her six race career. The problem with Hail Mary is that she (so far) has done her best running on the front end; and there are several in this group that will be fighting for the lead in the early going, including # 3 Tribal Gal (ML 10-1); # 6 Zia Zia Zia (ML 8-1); and # 8 Kinz Funky Monkey (ML 6-1). There is definitely a high probability of pace meltdown in this one.
# 2 Minds Eyes (ML 3-1) is making her third start for Trainer John Sadler; overall career start number eight. In her last outing Minds Eyes came within a length of victory at this class level; the time before that, also at this level, she missed by just a half length to Tasty Treat, who in turn went on to win The Daisycutter Handicap. Minds Eyes does her best running late, so the anticipated pace meltdown should be to her benefit. Note that the rider today is Bejarano; as Leparoux, who rode her those last two times out, will be on top of Hail Mary today.
# 5 Heir Kitty (ML 3-1) returns to the track after a six month vacation. Trainer Peter Miller does quite well with horses coming off a long freshening, clicking with a Winning Percentage above .30 for entrants returning after being away more than 180 days. Heir Kitty will be getting some class relief here, after having competed against stakes competition in seven of her nine career contests. Like Minds Eyes, Heir Kitty does her best running late; if she’s ready to fire, she could be the one getting her picture taken when this is all over.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (2nd Division) (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
# 1 Ethnic Dance (ML 12-1) makes a pretty big jump in class in this one, having done all his previous running against state bred competition. On the other hand, Ethnic Dance’s Beyers certainly fit in with the rest of this field, and his early running style gives him an advantage over what looks to be a pretty paceless affair. If Ethnic Dance can break clean from the rail and smoke the grass early, he just might steal this one before the others can get into gear.
# 6 Olympic Blue (ML 15-1) is another, like Ethnic Dance, that can go early if need be. Olympic Blue does have prior stakes experience, having taken the Show in both the Oceanside and the Tsunami Slew. Olympic Blue is definitely a long shot in this one; but you never want to casually dismiss a Jerry Hollendorfer trained entrant.
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 6-1) could find himself leading the pack early, if either Ethnic Dance or Olympic Blue fail to fire. The more likely scenario is that Den’s Legacy will be sitting right off the pace early, pressing some very easy fractions, and then find himself with a lot left in the tank as he leads the field into the stretch.
# 9 Dice Flavor (ML 9-2) came from the clouds to nip Den’s Legacy at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The question is will Dice Flavor, a deep closer, have enough pace to chase in this one in order to make a late charge to the finish line. Garrett Gomez, who was on board for the La Jolla win, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington Park his last time out, isn’t a deep closer like Dice Flavor; but Infinite Magic does do his best running late, and therefore he may also be compromised by today’s anticipated pace scenario. Note that Admiral Kitten, who took the Place behind Infinite Magic in the American Derby, came back to win the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes his next time out.
# 8 Kid Dreams (ML 8-1) finished off the board in his only stakes attempt; but he merits consideration as he enters this contest with the best last out Beyer. While today’s event is a furlong longer than that contest, Kid Dreams was sired by 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid; so the extra eighth of a mile shouldn’t pose any difficulties.
Currently leaning towards using # 4 Den's Legacy and # 9 Dice Flavor as my two "A" contenders in this one.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Unusually Green (ML 10-1) barely picked up his feet in his debut back in June; but he goes for a barn that gets one third of its entrants home when coming back after a two-three month vacation, with an ROI of $3.44. Couple that with the rider switch from Quinonez to Pedroza, and factor in the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and you have to give Unusually Green at least a puncher’s chance in this one.
# 3 Belgata (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Adam Kitchingman, who hits approximately 17% of the time with debuters. The offspring of Belgata’s sire, Good Journey, win approximately 11.6% of the time in their initial tries.
# 4 Ajac (ML 5-1) took the Show at this level his last time out at five and a half furlongs over this track; the extra half-furlong today should help, as Ajac has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field. And as much as I love Chantal Sutherland, the rider switch to Rafael Bejarano must be seen as a positive.
# 5 Oh Daddy Oh (ML 5-2) makes his career debut for a barn that wins 23% of the time with first time starters. Oh Daddy Oh was sired by Scat Daddy, whose descendants get their picture taken after their first race approximately 14% of the time. Oh Daddy Oh’s public workouts are somewhat lacking in quantity, beginning as they do less than two months ago; but the works show no obvious breaks in pattern, which is definitely a plus.
# 8 Missing Groom (ML 9-2) was sired by Colonel John; whose offspring (in a very small sample size) have won approximately 18% of the time in their first attempts. Missing Groom is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who gets wins from his first time starters approximately one fourth of the time.
# 9 Charisma Code (ML 5-1) had a horrible trip his last time out and finished dead last. In each of his two prior tries at this level, both on synthetic surfaces, Charisma Code finished in the money.
None of the experienced runners in this contest has ever earned a Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of par for this level; nor have any of the experienced runners ever been the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior events. For those reasons, it makes sense to give strong consideration to the first time starters in this one; and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh and # 8 Missing Groom strike me as the two best in that category. Expect me to lean on those two when it comes time to make my Pick Four play.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 11 With a Miracle (ML 7-2) took the Place her last time out (as the Post Time Favorite), in a contest at this level but half a furlong shorter in length. In addition to having the best last out Beyer in this field, With a Miracle also has the best career Beyer on a synthetic surface among those competing in this event.
# 5 Flashy Dame (ML 9-2) took the Show behind With a Miracle her last time out, crossing the wire approximately three quarters of a length behind that one. The third place finish was Flashy Dame’s first in the money finish since breaking her maiden back in June 2012; not so coincidentally, it was also Flashy Dame’s first time in for tag in her career.
# 7 Chestnut Moon (8-1) goes first off the claim for Trainer Matthew Chew, who is one for five with such. The five times that Chestnut Moon has finished in the Exacta in her seventeen race career have all come in two turn events; so it’ll be interesting to see how she does in today’s one turn sprint for her new trainer.
# 6 Tiz Anna (ML 8-1) is trained by Vladimir Cerin, who has yet to get a winner home in the current Del Mar meet (though his horses have taken the Place eight times in twenty-nine tries). Tiz Anna will be trying winners for the first time today; but her Beyers do match up well with the rest of the field, and she has finished in the Trifecta in all four of her prior races on synthetic surfaces.
# 10 Dolphin Shorts (ML 8-1) is another trying winners for the first time today, albeit in a much shorter career than Tiz Anna; as Dolphin Shorts was able to break her maiden in just her second try. Dolphin Shorts is trained by Mike Mitchell, who gets his winners to do it again their next time out approximately 22% of the time.
# 3 Willetta (ML 12-1) took the Place over this track her last time out, albeit against cheaper ($16k N2L). Willetta gets a change in rider today, as the apprentice Irving Orozco is swapped out for Chantal Sutherland.
Right now I’m leaning towards making # 11 With a Miracle my single “A” contender in this one, as that will go a long way towards keeping costs down. But it’s very likely that I’ll also use # 5 Flashy Dame as an “A”; which will mean a lot shorter spread in the other contests. Certainly a matter requiring more thought.
Post Time for Race 8, which kicks off the Pick Four, is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my play posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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