Race 1 - # 1 Rosewhitenblue (Final Odds 1.90) - "C" Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Sunny Kat (5.30) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Heyyoucan (23.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Om (22.40) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The La Jolla - # 6 Enterprising (1.50*) - "A" Selection
We had a nice finish, bringing two "A's" home in the final two legs. Om showed that being the only experienced runner with early speed makes for a nice advantage in a Maiden race, while Enterprising proved that "class on the grass" is still a valid precept. We also started well enough, getting home one of the two horses that we used in the opening leg; albeit our "C" Selection.
But Races 2 and 3; man, each of those was a big swing and a miss.
As strange as this may sound, I think omitting Heyyoucan from the ticket was a bigger mistake than not using Sunny Kat. Heyyoucan was one of only two runners in Race 3 that had previously won on the Del Mar main track. In addition, Heyyoucan had a clear pace advantage over the field, being the one legitimate closer in the field (yeah, # 2 Pressure Time (3.00) had also shown the ability to rate, but he was adding blinkers today, while Heyyoucan was shedding the hood). So Heyyoucan is one that really belonged in our play.
On the other hand, Sunny Kat is one that I can forgive myself for not using. Yes, Sunny Kat is by Kitten's Joy, so naturally the turf breeding is there. But Sunny Kat had four races on the grass prior to today (two of which were at today's distance) and managed to finish out of the money in all four. I'm not quite sure how I could have deduced that today would be the day that the turf gene would finally kick in. Of course, it could be said that I simply totally mis-handicapped this event. After all, the four runners that I used in this field of seven were the four runners that finished out of the money.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 1 / 3 / 6 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $53,812.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 9, 2014
8/9/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Preview
They'll be running on some California grass Saturday at Del Mar, with the seventy-fourth running of the Grade 3 La Jolla scheduled for Race 5 being the featured race. In honor of that event, today we'll be taking a look at the early half of the card, and take a shot at the Pick Five.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 No Tricks for Jack (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Rosewhitenblue (ML 7-2)
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
No Tricks for Jack won at this level last time out at the Oak Tree meet at Pleasanton. Throw out the race two back, which was a sprint and at a higher class level, and No Tricks for Jack has run three routes at this class level, and has finished in the money in all three. Rosewhitenblue has finished in the money ten out of fourteen tries on synthetic surfaces, and has shown the ability to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 2 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Spring Action (ML 3-1)
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Anxious Times (ML 5-1)
# 5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Spring Action took the Show at this level in his last start, also a turf route. Snuggley Bear is taking his eleventh shot at breaking his maiden; not a good sign. But only three of his previous ten starts were on the grass, and he finished in the money in all three. To put an even finer point on it, only one of Snuggley Bear's prior starts was a turf route, and he took the Place in that contest.
Action Times is by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare, so he shouldn't have any problems with his first career route (indeed, his Tomlinson Rating for the distance is the best in this field). Action Times has also been working well over the main track at Del Mar; perhaps he's better suited to the Polytrack?
Badasmywifeletsmeb has no business being on this ticket, expect for the fact that he's sired by Unusual Heat, and for whatever reason the progeny of Unusual Heat tend to do ridiculously well on this turf course.
RACE 3 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pressure Time (ML 3-1)
# 3 World Famous Sam T (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pressure Time gets some class relief here, and the workout on 8/2 suggests that the synthetic surface should not be a problem. World Famous Sam T was a winner in his only prior try on a synthetic surface.
Tribal Dude showed that sometimes the thirteenth time's the charm, finally getting a win in what was (not so coincidentally) a race in which he ran for the lowest price tage of his career. Tribal Dude's form looks much better when you consider that he is is one-for-two in his career on synthetic surfaces, and undefeated in his solo effort on this main track. I like that Tribal Dude got the win without earning a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure, and I think he's well suited to today's class level.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 No Tricks for Jack (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Rosewhitenblue (ML 7-2)
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
No Tricks for Jack won at this level last time out at the Oak Tree meet at Pleasanton. Throw out the race two back, which was a sprint and at a higher class level, and No Tricks for Jack has run three routes at this class level, and has finished in the money in all three. Rosewhitenblue has finished in the money ten out of fourteen tries on synthetic surfaces, and has shown the ability to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 2 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Spring Action (ML 3-1)
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Anxious Times (ML 5-1)
# 5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Spring Action took the Show at this level in his last start, also a turf route. Snuggley Bear is taking his eleventh shot at breaking his maiden; not a good sign. But only three of his previous ten starts were on the grass, and he finished in the money in all three. To put an even finer point on it, only one of Snuggley Bear's prior starts was a turf route, and he took the Place in that contest.
Action Times is by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare, so he shouldn't have any problems with his first career route (indeed, his Tomlinson Rating for the distance is the best in this field). Action Times has also been working well over the main track at Del Mar; perhaps he's better suited to the Polytrack?
Badasmywifeletsmeb has no business being on this ticket, expect for the fact that he's sired by Unusual Heat, and for whatever reason the progeny of Unusual Heat tend to do ridiculously well on this turf course.
RACE 3 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pressure Time (ML 3-1)
# 3 World Famous Sam T (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pressure Time gets some class relief here, and the workout on 8/2 suggests that the synthetic surface should not be a problem. World Famous Sam T was a winner in his only prior try on a synthetic surface.
Tribal Dude showed that sometimes the thirteenth time's the charm, finally getting a win in what was (not so coincidentally) a race in which he ran for the lowest price tage of his career. Tribal Dude's form looks much better when you consider that he is is one-for-two in his career on synthetic surfaces, and undefeated in his solo effort on this main track. I like that Tribal Dude got the win without earning a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure, and I think he's well suited to today's class level.
RACE 4 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Calculator (ML 9-2)
# 2 Iron Fist (ML 7-2)
# 3 Om (ML 15-1)
# 6 American Pharoah (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 One Lucky Dane (ML 8-1)
# 8 Daddy D T (ML 5-1)
Calculator missed by a length of graduating in his debut over this main track, and owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field.
Iron Fist has that very impressive seven figure price tag that he was purchased for at auction last year, not to mention the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. But while he made up a lot of ground in his debut, Iron Fist runs for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, whose horses tend to do better their first time out as opposed to when they have to try again.
Om is the only experienced runner in this field to have shown early speed in his debut. In addition, Om has been working well over this main track since that first time effort. There are others here that I prefer more, but I don't want to sell this one too short.
One Lucky Dane and American Pharoah are a pair of first time starters going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with such about one out of every four tries. One Lucky Dane is by Lookin At Lucky, while American Pharoah is by Pioneerof the Nile; the progeny of both those sires tend to win more than their fair share in their debuts.
Daddy D T is by Scat Daddy, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts. Daddy D T is trained by John Sadler, who wins approximately 24% of the time with first time starters. Daddy D T shows a steady work tab, and should be ready to fire.
RACE 5 - The La Jolla (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enterprising (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 7-2)
# 2 Schoolofhardrocks (ML 5-2)
Enterprising is four for five in his career when racing on some California grass, and is the only runner in today's field with a win on this turf course. The only question I see for Enterprising today is how much did that charge from the clouds in the Oceanside take out of him.
Argyle Cut seems to have developed seconditis, settling for the Place in four of his last five starts; the only win in that sequence coming in an Optional Claimer at Golden Gate with Russel Baze on his back when he went off at less than even money.
Schoolofhardrocks defeated older two starts back; but that win was sandwiched between two starts where he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,5 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 4,8 with 6 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2 $24.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 3, 2014
8/3/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Inexcess Time (Final Odds 7.70) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Blue Tone (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Best Pal - # 7 Skyway (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Wrightwood (6.50) - "A" Selection
Thanks to the scratches in Race 6, we made the right call in putting Inexcess Time on our tickets; though, of course, there's no telling what the results would have been sans scratches. For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 Hall of Fame (4.90) - $342.40
# 5 Noble Bird (2.80*) - $371.30
So we not only beat the Morning Line Favorite in the finale, # 8 Alamo (2.80) but we also got the head bob to the biggest payout, as the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 7 / 1 returns $509.05 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Blue Tone (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Best Pal - # 7 Skyway (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Wrightwood (6.50) - "A" Selection
Thanks to the scratches in Race 6, we made the right call in putting Inexcess Time on our tickets; though, of course, there's no telling what the results would have been sans scratches. For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 Hall of Fame (4.90) - $342.40
# 5 Noble Bird (2.80*) - $371.30
So we not only beat the Morning Line Favorite in the finale, # 8 Alamo (2.80) but we also got the head bob to the biggest payout, as the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 7 / 1 returns $509.05 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/3/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Switching coasts from East to West, as Del Mar is featuring the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes today. As sometimes happens we're pressed for time; so this will be relatively brief.
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Dream Police (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1)
# 10 Cherokee Band (ML 10-1)
# 11 Remo (ML 3-1)
Dream Police took the Place in his debut as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, and will get blinkers on and a rider switch for today's contest; moves that in general tend to be neutral, but often help a second time starter focus better on his task. Life On Riveria is by a sire (Hold Me Back) and from a trainer (Peter Miller) who both do quite well with debut runners. EDIT: # 8 Life On Riveria (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
# 10 Cherokee Band goes out for Trainer Cody Autrey, who does quite well with both juveniles and first time starters. I also like that this one sold this past March at auction for $115k from off a $5k sire fee.
I downgraded # 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1) and # 11 Remo (ML 3-1) because they are second time starters from trainers (Walther Solis and Doug O'Neill) whose juvenile runners tend to either win in their debuts, or not until after several more starts. I did not eliminate them completely, because after all the scratches, I don't believe this field is especially strong.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blue Tone (ML 4-1)
# 8 Patrioticandproud (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 3 Friendswith K Mill (ML 5-1)
# 9 Stormberg (ML 15-1)
Friendswith K Mill misses by a half length of being perfect in his last three starts that weren't Graded Stakes. A concern is that this is his first time facing older. Blue Tone hasn't competed since October; but he has worked well over this track (note the seven furlong move on July 20) and is the only runner in this contest with a win over this main track.
Patrioticandproud has three wins in his career on the synthetics, and has finished in the money in ten of his fourteen career starts on the plastic. Patrioticandproud was also a winner in two of his last three races that weren't Graded Stakes. Stromberg runs first time for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Story to Tell (ML 5-2)
# 7 Skyway (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 Two Six Wins (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Bigluck E (ML 5-1) and # 5 Rowdy Dylan (ML 7-2) have been scratched.
Story to Tell misses by less than a length of being a perfect three-for-three for his career. Story to Tell is also the only non-restricted stakes winner in the field. Skyway is the only runner in this contest with a win on a synthetic surface. Skyway also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. Two Six Wins has been working well over the Del Mar surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Wrightwood (ML 5-1)
# 4 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1)
# 5 Noble Bird (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Opsec (ML 6-1)
# 3 Surfer Moon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Clickjab (ML 10-1)
# 7 J Serino (ML 6-1)
# 8 Alamo (ML 5-2)
# 9 Native Ride (ML 15-1)
Wrightwood has finished in the money both times that he's tried today's distance at this class level. Hall of Fame both took the Place at this level their last times out, and come back after not competing in July. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as I think this one is completely wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,9 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 3 with 1,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,9 $12.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Dream Police (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1)
# 10 Cherokee Band (ML 10-1)
# 11 Remo (ML 3-1)
Dream Police took the Place in his debut as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, and will get blinkers on and a rider switch for today's contest; moves that in general tend to be neutral, but often help a second time starter focus better on his task. Life On Riveria is by a sire (Hold Me Back) and from a trainer (Peter Miller) who both do quite well with debut runners. EDIT: # 8 Life On Riveria (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
# 10 Cherokee Band goes out for Trainer Cody Autrey, who does quite well with both juveniles and first time starters. I also like that this one sold this past March at auction for $115k from off a $5k sire fee.
I downgraded # 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1) and # 11 Remo (ML 3-1) because they are second time starters from trainers (Walther Solis and Doug O'Neill) whose juvenile runners tend to either win in their debuts, or not until after several more starts. I did not eliminate them completely, because after all the scratches, I don't believe this field is especially strong.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blue Tone (ML 4-1)
# 8 Patrioticandproud (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 3 Friendswith K Mill (ML 5-1)
# 9 Stormberg (ML 15-1)
Friendswith K Mill misses by a half length of being perfect in his last three starts that weren't Graded Stakes. A concern is that this is his first time facing older. Blue Tone hasn't competed since October; but he has worked well over this track (note the seven furlong move on July 20) and is the only runner in this contest with a win over this main track.
Patrioticandproud has three wins in his career on the synthetics, and has finished in the money in ten of his fourteen career starts on the plastic. Patrioticandproud was also a winner in two of his last three races that weren't Graded Stakes. Stromberg runs first time for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Story to Tell (ML 5-2)
# 7 Skyway (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 Two Six Wins (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Bigluck E (ML 5-1) and # 5 Rowdy Dylan (ML 7-2) have been scratched.
Story to Tell misses by less than a length of being a perfect three-for-three for his career. Story to Tell is also the only non-restricted stakes winner in the field. Skyway is the only runner in this contest with a win on a synthetic surface. Skyway also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. Two Six Wins has been working well over the Del Mar surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Wrightwood (ML 5-1)
# 4 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1)
# 5 Noble Bird (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Opsec (ML 6-1)
# 3 Surfer Moon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Clickjab (ML 10-1)
# 7 J Serino (ML 6-1)
# 8 Alamo (ML 5-2)
# 9 Native Ride (ML 15-1)
Wrightwood has finished in the money both times that he's tried today's distance at this class level. Hall of Fame both took the Place at this level their last times out, and come back after not competing in July. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as I think this one is completely wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,9 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 3 with 1,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,9 $12.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 2, 2014
8/2/14 Saratoga Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt - # 1 Palace (Final Odds 2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Test - # 7 Sweet Reason (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Whitney - # 3 Moreno (10.00) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Lure - # 4 Big Blue Kitten (1.70*) - "A" Selection
We were right to have our concerns about the Post Time Favorite in The A G Vanderbilt, # 5 Happy My Way (1.60*), as he was up by two in the stretch but could not hold on against the pace-pressing Palace. On the other hand, our concerns about Big Blue Kitten in the finale proved to be unfounded, as he showed he was indeed ready off the bench, winning by daylight. Likewise no surprises in The Test, as Sweet Reason picks up her third Grade 1 win.
As for The Whitney, # 5 Palace Malice (0.65*) never fired and # 1 Will Take Charge (4.10) couldn't get there in time, as Moreno simply led the field all the way around the track. Post-race DRF's David Grening tweeted out a quote from Jockey John Velazquez stating Palace Malice "just went through the motions; never put in an effort." Palace Malice himself had no comment on his performance.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $221.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Test - # 7 Sweet Reason (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Whitney - # 3 Moreno (10.00) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Lure - # 4 Big Blue Kitten (1.70*) - "A" Selection
We were right to have our concerns about the Post Time Favorite in The A G Vanderbilt, # 5 Happy My Way (1.60*), as he was up by two in the stretch but could not hold on against the pace-pressing Palace. On the other hand, our concerns about Big Blue Kitten in the finale proved to be unfounded, as he showed he was indeed ready off the bench, winning by daylight. Likewise no surprises in The Test, as Sweet Reason picks up her third Grade 1 win.
As for The Whitney, # 5 Palace Malice (0.65*) never fired and # 1 Will Take Charge (4.10) couldn't get there in time, as Moreno simply led the field all the way around the track. Post-race DRF's David Grening tweeted out a quote from Jockey John Velazquez stating Palace Malice "just went through the motions; never put in an effort." Palace Malice himself had no comment on his performance.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $221.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/2/14 Saratoga Late Pick Four - Preview
I was afraid that this was going to be another washout weekend in the east, especially with Monmouth Park announcing they were off the turf almost right at sunup. But Weather Underground is offering a reasonably dry forecast for Saratoga this afternoon, with only a slight chance of thunderstorm; so with it being Whitney Day up at the Spa, let's pray for sunshine and take a run at the all-stakes Late Pick Four.
RACE 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Bahamian Squall (ML 8-1)
# 5 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Bakken (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Palace, winner of the Grade 2 True North, has finished in the money all but once in the dozen times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Palace has also been in the money all three times that he's run at Saratoga. Bahamian Squall took the Place in this event last year, earning his best career Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
Happy My Way has earned triple-digit Beyers in each of his last five races, and (with the scratch of Bakken) could find himself all alone on the front end today. But this will be the first time that Happy My Way is competing at this level and at Saratoga, and his work over this track on July 27 was far from impressive.
RACE 9 - (F) The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fiftyshadesofgold (ML 8-1)
# 5 Southern Honey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sweet Reason (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Fiftyshadesofgold turns back to her preferred distance; note that she's four-for-five in her career in races at less than a mile. Fiftyshadesofgold also shows a series of bullet works heading into this one.
Southern Honey owns the best career Beyer in a Grade 1 field where none of the entrants has ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer Speed Figure. Note also that Southern Honey earned that figure defeating older in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. The only question is how much did that race take out of her.
Sweet Reason is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, and she's done it twice. Sweet Reason has also won both times that she's competed at Saratoga.
RACE 10 - The Whitney (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Palace Malice (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 4-1)
Palace Malice is the clear class standout here, having matured into an even better runner than he was in his three year old campaign. Will Take Charge has never finished out of the Exacta with Luis Saez on his back; nor has Will Take Charge ever finished out of the Exacta when competing at today's distance.
RACE 11 - [R] The Lure $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 4 Big Blue Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Swift Warrior (ML 10-1)
# 6 Plainview (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bio Pro (ML 12-1)
# 11 Rouge Romance (ML 20-1)
Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field; but he's been on a nine month vacation, and it's fair to presume that his connections have him pointed towards bigger races than this restricted stakes.
Swift Warrior won a pair of Graded Stakes on the grass last year. Plainview is three-for three on the Saratoga grass, and his front-running style tends to play well on this inner turf course. Bio Pro is another that should be forwardly placed, and seems to have responded well to the move from West to East.
Rogue Romance has run just one race since finishing two lengths behind Ron the Greek in the 2012 Stephen Foster Handicap. But Rogue Romance is a Graded Stakes winner on the grass, and has won on the Saratoga grass (albeit on the outer turf course). In addition, Rogue Romance has won after a long hiatus, winning an Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park after having not run since taking the Show in the prior year's Risen Star.
Again, Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field, and should win easy; but if he doesn't fire, this becomes a wide open affair.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to play our tickets a little differently today. We'll have our usual "All A Entries"; but in addition to that we'll have just one other ticket combing all entries. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4 $9.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,11 $45.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:40 EDT / 1:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Bahamian Squall (ML 8-1)
# 5 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Bakken (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Palace, winner of the Grade 2 True North, has finished in the money all but once in the dozen times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Palace has also been in the money all three times that he's run at Saratoga. Bahamian Squall took the Place in this event last year, earning his best career Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
Happy My Way has earned triple-digit Beyers in each of his last five races, and (with the scratch of Bakken) could find himself all alone on the front end today. But this will be the first time that Happy My Way is competing at this level and at Saratoga, and his work over this track on July 27 was far from impressive.
RACE 9 - (F) The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fiftyshadesofgold (ML 8-1)
# 5 Southern Honey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sweet Reason (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Fiftyshadesofgold turns back to her preferred distance; note that she's four-for-five in her career in races at less than a mile. Fiftyshadesofgold also shows a series of bullet works heading into this one.
Southern Honey owns the best career Beyer in a Grade 1 field where none of the entrants has ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer Speed Figure. Note also that Southern Honey earned that figure defeating older in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. The only question is how much did that race take out of her.
Sweet Reason is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, and she's done it twice. Sweet Reason has also won both times that she's competed at Saratoga.
RACE 10 - The Whitney (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Palace Malice (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 4-1)
Palace Malice is the clear class standout here, having matured into an even better runner than he was in his three year old campaign. Will Take Charge has never finished out of the Exacta with Luis Saez on his back; nor has Will Take Charge ever finished out of the Exacta when competing at today's distance.
RACE 11 - [R] The Lure $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 4 Big Blue Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Swift Warrior (ML 10-1)
# 6 Plainview (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bio Pro (ML 12-1)
# 11 Rouge Romance (ML 20-1)
Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field; but he's been on a nine month vacation, and it's fair to presume that his connections have him pointed towards bigger races than this restricted stakes.
Swift Warrior won a pair of Graded Stakes on the grass last year. Plainview is three-for three on the Saratoga grass, and his front-running style tends to play well on this inner turf course. Bio Pro is another that should be forwardly placed, and seems to have responded well to the move from West to East.
Rogue Romance has run just one race since finishing two lengths behind Ron the Greek in the 2012 Stephen Foster Handicap. But Rogue Romance is a Graded Stakes winner on the grass, and has won on the Saratoga grass (albeit on the outer turf course). In addition, Rogue Romance has won after a long hiatus, winning an Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park after having not run since taking the Show in the prior year's Risen Star.
Again, Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field, and should win easy; but if he doesn't fire, this becomes a wide open affair.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to play our tickets a little differently today. We'll have our usual "All A Entries"; but in addition to that we'll have just one other ticket combing all entries. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4 $9.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,11 $45.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:40 EDT / 1:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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