"We win races, we lose races. You have to be able to handle disappointment as well as success." - Linda Rice
Race 9 - The Ballston Spa - # 3 Abaco (Final Odds 4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The King's Bishop - # 7 The Big Beast (2.85) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Ballerina - # 1 Artemis Agrotera (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The Travers - # 4 V. E. Day ( 19.50) - "C" Selection
Considering that I really liked our chances today, there's not much to say after failing to bring a single "A" contender home. Still, in all fairness, the betting public didn't fare much better; as not only wasn't there a single Post Time Favorite among the four winners, but two of the four Post Time Favorites actually finished dead last. Anyway, had # 7 Wicked Strong (2.65) held off his stable mate at the wire we would have had an "A" Selection winner; but then all we would have gotten from it was two tickets with three correct choices apiece; all of which would have had the same net result on our bottom line.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,153.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 23, 2014
8/23/14 Saratoga All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Travers Day at the Spa, the annual highlight of the Saratoga meet; and NYRA has gifted us with a card that includes an all Graded Stakes Pick Four, Races 9-12 (inclusive).
RACE 9 - (F) The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Mellon Turf Course
A’s
# 7 Filimbi (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Abaco (ML 4-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dayatthespa (ML 5-2) has been scratched. Also note that this race has been moved from the inner to the outer turf.
Filimbi has done nothing wrong since arriving in North America from France. A repeat of her last out effort in the De La Rose Stakes should get the job done here.
Abaco closed well in both the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley; and while the projected pace in this one doesn't flatter her, she should appreciate the class relief. I also like her most recent works here. Strathnaver (GB) should improve over her most recent outing in the Diana and run closer to her effort in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes, where she lost the photo to Coffee Clique.
RACE 10 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Coup de Grace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Noble Cornerstone (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Big Beast (ML 5-2)
Coup de Grace looked very good in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this track last time out, and has been working well since. The Big Beast took a big step forward last time out in his first try against winners. Have to respect his chances due to his speed figures and his connections; but I don't think The Big Beast can get the early lead today, and that certainly compromises his chances.
Noble Cornerstone is making a big leap up the class ladder, entering this field off efforts in state-bred allowance company; but it's not as if he's come out of nowhere, as Noble Cornerstone did show this potential as a two year old. Noble Cornerstone's speed figures mark him as a contender here, and while this is a Grade 1 stakes, it's a Grade 1 that lacks a prior Grade 1 winner.
RACE 11 - (F) The Ballerina (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Miss Aurelia (ML 3-1)
# 5 Willet (ML 6-1)
# 6 La Verdad (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (ML 5-1)
# 2 Better Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Kipling's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 8 Hot Stones (ML 6-1)
# 9 Geeky Gorgeous (ML 20-1)
My Miss Aurelia is certainly the class of this field. The question is has she come back from her injuries that limited her to just one race in all of 2013 and just two races over the past year and a half? If you go back to her 2012 campaign, you'll see that she used an effort in a restricted stakes similar to her most recent performance as a springboard to a Grade 1 Win and the Place in the Breeders' Cup Distaff / Ladies Classic. Certainly a return to that form gets the job done here today.
Willet enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is can Willet carry her form from state bred contests into Graded Stakes company. Willet certainly fits here on speed figures and she definitely likes this track, having finished in the Exacta in all five of her races here at Saratoga.
La Verdad couldn't make the lead in her last contest, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; that's troubling. Some have blamed the mud, which sounds reasonable until you consider that La Verdad had won all of her previous five efforts on an off track. La Verdad certainly worked well on the 17th; but that was her only work since the Honorable Miss. If La Verdad rebounds to her prior form she wins here; but there are enough question marks here to suggest that La Verdad may not be in her best shape.
The C's are everyone else. As I don't believe that this field contains any standouts, this one looks to be a wide open affair.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bayern (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tonalist (ML 3-1)
# 7 Wicked Strong (ML 7-2)
# 10 Mr Speaker (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 1 Commanding Curve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Charge Now (ML 15-1)
# 4 V. E. Day (ML 15-1)
# 5 Viva Majorca (ML 20-1)
# 8 Kid Cruz (ML 12-1)
# 9 Ulanbator (ML 30-1)
Bayern is the early speed here, and a repeat of either of his two prior efforts will see him run the rest of this field off their feet. Can Bayern make ten furlongs? I don't see why not. His sire was Offlee Wild, who made ten furlongs while winning the 2005 Suburban Handicap against a field that included Funny Cide. Bayern's broodmare sire is Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, along with the 1995 running of this event. So I have no concerns about Bayern making ten furlongs; my concern is with Bayern maintaining the early lead. Because that's the real problem with horses like Bayern: they can only run on the lead; they can't rate. Once they're passed, they're done. So if you think Bayern can make a clear early lead here, you can probably single him in this leg and be done. But if you think a blinkered Wicked Strong can pressure Bayern earlier and keep him from getting comfortable on the front end, then you'll see that this event can potentially go in several different directions.
Wicked Strong donned blinkers for the first time last time out, raced up on the pace, and won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy by daylight. Since Wicked Strong had been a prior Grade 1 winner, it's not really accurate to say that he took a step forward with the new equipment; but it is fair to say that Wicked Strong added a new dimension to his game, one that will suit him well here, as he needs to stay close enough to Bayern to keep that one from leading the field from gate to wire.
Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan in the slop, and then got up just in time to hit the wire a head in front of Commission in the Belmont Stakes, finishing less than two lengths ahead of the three footed California Chrome. Last time out Tonalist had the length of the stretch to get by Wicked Strong but could not. I expect Tonalist to improve off that last effort; even more so if the main track fails to dry by the time this contest is run.
Mr Speaker is the only runner in this field with a victory in a race at exactly ten furlongs, albeit on grass. Mr Speaker is also one of only four Grade 1 winners in this field. In addition to being a Grade 1 winner, Mr Speaker is a multiple Graded Stakes winner. He has a dirt pedigree and has been working well over the main track. Mr Speaker may not be Animal Kingdom, and I certainly don’t think that he’s a more likely winner than either Bayern or Wicked Strong; but I do think that Mr Speaker is a legitimate contender, and his stock goes up if the early pace completely falls apart.
The C's are everyone else. If Wicked Strong and Tonalist have to go after Bayern early there's a significant chance that they could all cook each other on the front end. If that happens, this could be anyone's race, as there are several quality closers here.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to shake things up a bit today. As I think the first two legs of this contest will be more formful than the latter two, I'm going to punch tickets that reflect that opinion. But I'm also going to be holding a ticket that covers the possibility that the Travers runs exactly as it looks on paper, and thus spread a little wider in the middle events. It means going over our usual budget, but I really like our chances of connecting here. So with that we get:
A Entries in first half; Everyone in second half
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL $40.00
A and C Entries in first half; A Entries in second half
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 4,7,8 with 4,5,6 with 2,6,7,10 $54.00
Formful Ballston Spa and Travers Ticket
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,7 $30.00
Total: $124.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:59 EDT / 12:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - (F) The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Mellon Turf Course
A’s
# 7 Filimbi (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Abaco (ML 4-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dayatthespa (ML 5-2) has been scratched. Also note that this race has been moved from the inner to the outer turf.
Filimbi has done nothing wrong since arriving in North America from France. A repeat of her last out effort in the De La Rose Stakes should get the job done here.
Abaco closed well in both the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley; and while the projected pace in this one doesn't flatter her, she should appreciate the class relief. I also like her most recent works here. Strathnaver (GB) should improve over her most recent outing in the Diana and run closer to her effort in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes, where she lost the photo to Coffee Clique.
RACE 10 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Coup de Grace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Noble Cornerstone (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Big Beast (ML 5-2)
Coup de Grace looked very good in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this track last time out, and has been working well since. The Big Beast took a big step forward last time out in his first try against winners. Have to respect his chances due to his speed figures and his connections; but I don't think The Big Beast can get the early lead today, and that certainly compromises his chances.
Noble Cornerstone is making a big leap up the class ladder, entering this field off efforts in state-bred allowance company; but it's not as if he's come out of nowhere, as Noble Cornerstone did show this potential as a two year old. Noble Cornerstone's speed figures mark him as a contender here, and while this is a Grade 1 stakes, it's a Grade 1 that lacks a prior Grade 1 winner.
RACE 11 - (F) The Ballerina (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Miss Aurelia (ML 3-1)
# 5 Willet (ML 6-1)
# 6 La Verdad (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (ML 5-1)
# 2 Better Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Kipling's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 8 Hot Stones (ML 6-1)
# 9 Geeky Gorgeous (ML 20-1)
My Miss Aurelia is certainly the class of this field. The question is has she come back from her injuries that limited her to just one race in all of 2013 and just two races over the past year and a half? If you go back to her 2012 campaign, you'll see that she used an effort in a restricted stakes similar to her most recent performance as a springboard to a Grade 1 Win and the Place in the Breeders' Cup Distaff / Ladies Classic. Certainly a return to that form gets the job done here today.
Willet enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is can Willet carry her form from state bred contests into Graded Stakes company. Willet certainly fits here on speed figures and she definitely likes this track, having finished in the Exacta in all five of her races here at Saratoga.
La Verdad couldn't make the lead in her last contest, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; that's troubling. Some have blamed the mud, which sounds reasonable until you consider that La Verdad had won all of her previous five efforts on an off track. La Verdad certainly worked well on the 17th; but that was her only work since the Honorable Miss. If La Verdad rebounds to her prior form she wins here; but there are enough question marks here to suggest that La Verdad may not be in her best shape.
The C's are everyone else. As I don't believe that this field contains any standouts, this one looks to be a wide open affair.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bayern (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tonalist (ML 3-1)
# 7 Wicked Strong (ML 7-2)
# 10 Mr Speaker (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 1 Commanding Curve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Charge Now (ML 15-1)
# 4 V. E. Day (ML 15-1)
# 5 Viva Majorca (ML 20-1)
# 8 Kid Cruz (ML 12-1)
# 9 Ulanbator (ML 30-1)
Bayern is the early speed here, and a repeat of either of his two prior efforts will see him run the rest of this field off their feet. Can Bayern make ten furlongs? I don't see why not. His sire was Offlee Wild, who made ten furlongs while winning the 2005 Suburban Handicap against a field that included Funny Cide. Bayern's broodmare sire is Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, along with the 1995 running of this event. So I have no concerns about Bayern making ten furlongs; my concern is with Bayern maintaining the early lead. Because that's the real problem with horses like Bayern: they can only run on the lead; they can't rate. Once they're passed, they're done. So if you think Bayern can make a clear early lead here, you can probably single him in this leg and be done. But if you think a blinkered Wicked Strong can pressure Bayern earlier and keep him from getting comfortable on the front end, then you'll see that this event can potentially go in several different directions.
Wicked Strong donned blinkers for the first time last time out, raced up on the pace, and won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy by daylight. Since Wicked Strong had been a prior Grade 1 winner, it's not really accurate to say that he took a step forward with the new equipment; but it is fair to say that Wicked Strong added a new dimension to his game, one that will suit him well here, as he needs to stay close enough to Bayern to keep that one from leading the field from gate to wire.
Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan in the slop, and then got up just in time to hit the wire a head in front of Commission in the Belmont Stakes, finishing less than two lengths ahead of the three footed California Chrome. Last time out Tonalist had the length of the stretch to get by Wicked Strong but could not. I expect Tonalist to improve off that last effort; even more so if the main track fails to dry by the time this contest is run.
Mr Speaker is the only runner in this field with a victory in a race at exactly ten furlongs, albeit on grass. Mr Speaker is also one of only four Grade 1 winners in this field. In addition to being a Grade 1 winner, Mr Speaker is a multiple Graded Stakes winner. He has a dirt pedigree and has been working well over the main track. Mr Speaker may not be Animal Kingdom, and I certainly don’t think that he’s a more likely winner than either Bayern or Wicked Strong; but I do think that Mr Speaker is a legitimate contender, and his stock goes up if the early pace completely falls apart.
The C's are everyone else. If Wicked Strong and Tonalist have to go after Bayern early there's a significant chance that they could all cook each other on the front end. If that happens, this could be anyone's race, as there are several quality closers here.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to shake things up a bit today. As I think the first two legs of this contest will be more formful than the latter two, I'm going to punch tickets that reflect that opinion. But I'm also going to be holding a ticket that covers the possibility that the Travers runs exactly as it looks on paper, and thus spread a little wider in the middle events. It means going over our usual budget, but I really like our chances of connecting here. So with that we get:
A Entries in first half; Everyone in second half
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL $40.00
A and C Entries in first half; A Entries in second half
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 4,7,8 with 4,5,6 with 2,6,7,10 $54.00
Formful Ballston Spa and Travers Ticket
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,7 $30.00
Total: $124.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:59 EDT / 12:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 16, 2014
8/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 3 Yard Line (Final Odds 2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 4 Personal Diary (9.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Adriatic Skye (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 In Excessiveness (16.00) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Pick Four Will Pays for the three horses to which we were alive going into the finale:
# 4 True Visionary - $1217.05
# 8 Zim N the Mailman - $5562.70
# 9 Classified Weapon - $688.95
Can't get overly upset about any multi-race wager in which you're still alive heading into the last leg; especially one that contains only one winning Post Time Favorite. And while my analysis of the Del Mar Oaks was hardly perfect, it did prove to be correct about a great many runners, not to mention yielding a winner that kept us alive in the sequence. But all that was for naught once In Excessiveness got loose on the lead right from the gate in the finale.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,234.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 4 Personal Diary (9.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Adriatic Skye (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 In Excessiveness (16.00) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Pick Four Will Pays for the three horses to which we were alive going into the finale:
# 4 True Visionary - $1217.05
# 8 Zim N the Mailman - $5562.70
# 9 Classified Weapon - $688.95
Can't get overly upset about any multi-race wager in which you're still alive heading into the last leg; especially one that contains only one winning Post Time Favorite. And while my analysis of the Del Mar Oaks was hardly perfect, it did prove to be correct about a great many runners, not to mention yielding a winner that kept us alive in the sequence. But all that was for naught once In Excessiveness got loose on the lead right from the gate in the finale.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,234.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Big doings across the USA this Saturday, as you have the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes in New York; Arlington Million Day in Chicago; and the Del Mar Oaks in SoCal. So plenty of top action for horseplayers to choose from today. As for me, I'll be focusing my attention on the happenings at Del Mar.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetics
A’s
# 3 Yard Line (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Big Tire (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Big Sunshine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Southern Freedom (ML 6-1)
Yard Line sure didn't like the turf last time out; today we'll see how much he likes the synthetic stuff. A repeat of his effort two starts back should get Yard Line the Win today.
Big Tire took the Show at this level over this main track last time out, after dropping down from Graded Stakes company. There's certainly class here, and Big Tire's off the pace running style could prove decisive in a field with more than its fair share of front runners.
Sweet Sunshine returns from a nine month vacation, though he has been working well over this main track. Sweet Sunshine has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed around two turns. This will be Sweet Sunshine's first try against winners.
Southern Freedom has four career races, all of which have been run over this main track; and he's finished in the Trifecta in each of them. Southern Freedom will be competing against winners for the first time; but he's the only one in this field with a win over this track, and the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith must be respected.
RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sea Queen (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Famous Alice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Personal Diary (ML 8-1)
# 3 Istanford (ML 5-1) won Friday's Sandy Blue Handicap here, and therefore has been scratched from today's contest. The scratch of Istanford leaves this field devoid of any horse that has a Win on this turf course. # 9 Maibaby (Ire) (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Sea Queen invades from the East, where she’s been doing just fine, finishing in the Exacta in all but one of her six career starts. Sea Queen can lead the field around the track or she can sit off the pace; with Istanford and Maibaby (Ire) scratched Sea Queen may lead the pack in the early going by default; though Famous Alice may choose to contest the early lead. Sea Queen is the Morning Line Favorite, and I expect her to go to Post at odds well below 2-1.
Famous Alice could benefit from the absence of Istanford, as a softer early pace could allow this daughter of Kitten's Joy to sit close and pounce at just the right moment. Note that the only time that Famous Alice has finished out of the Exacta on the grass was when the turf was less than firm.
Personal Diary would probably have been better served with Istanford in the field, as Personal Diary does her best running late, and a blistering early pace would certainly help her cause. Still, Personal Diary's chances must be respected, as she was able to cross the wire third (placed second due to DQ) in the Grade 3 Regret, just behind Aurelia's Belle, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks.
# 1 Diversy Harbor (ML 9-2) and # 6 My Conquestadory (ML 5-1) are a pair that showed great promise when they began their young careers, but have not developed as hoped. While both have the back class and breeding to contend in this spot, the only way either can win here would be to take a big step forward off their most recent efforts. Perhaps one or both of them will; but I'll be betting against that today.
# 7 Tepin (ML 12-1) is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt making her third career start on turf; and, quite frankly, I think she should keep off the grass. Yes, she did take the Place behind Istanford in the Grade 2 San Clemente on this course last month; but that was back when they had the grass shaved so close that it looked like a billiard table. Just my opinion, of course, but the connections of Tepin would do much better by this horse to move her back to competing on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 6-1)
# 4 Golden Celestial (ML 12-1)
# 6 Adriatic Skye (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bird In Love (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hollywood Producer (ML 20-1)
# 7 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Lakota Road (ML 9-2)
Moscato Girl took the Place against more expensive over this main track two starts back. This is the cheapest tag that Moscato Girl has run for in her career.
Hollywood Producer, Golden Celestial, and Adriatic Style all exit the same last race, which saw Hollywood Producer and Adriatic Skye fight on the lead with the eventual winner (Tim's Go Girl) while Golden Celestial swooped in late to take the Place. Adriatic Skye gets the edge today in my opinion due to the switch back to Trainer Vann Belvoir, who re-claimed her from the last event after having lost her in her prior contest. In addition Adriatic Skye shows a bullet work over this main track on August 12, which means that she's ready to fire again. Should Adriatic Skye not fire, Hollywood Producer could be the one leading the pack around the track; while if things get frantic again, Golden Celestial could be the only horse still running at the finish.
Bird in Love (GB) is the only runner in this field with a Win over this main track, and she enters this contest with the best last out Beyer (also earned over this main track).
Brandon's Princess took the Show at this class level her last time out. Brandon's Princess has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but in a field without a standout, it's not hard to imagine her winning while the rest of the field backs away from the Finish Line.
Lakota Road runs for a tag for the first time since her debut after posting her lowest career Beyer Speed Figure since her debut. The public work on August 9 doesn't inspire confidence, other than that is it a public work, so she can't be too off form. Anyway, if Lakota Road can run back to any of the Beyers that she was earning earlier this year, she'll win this one by daylight; but it's far more likely that she doesn't.
# 5 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) experienced a noticeable drop in her Beyer Speed Figures in her last contest compared to those from her prior two starts. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Coconut Cream Pie was also sporting front leg wraps for the first time in her career in her last race. Since Coconut Cream Pie shows no public works since that last contest, it's easy to presume that she is not in her top form. In addition, Coconut Cream Pie earned her lowest career Beyer in her only prior race on the Del Mar main track. Therefore, Coconut Cream Pie, despite being the Morning Line Favorite, will not be on any on my tickets today; so if she wins, I lose.
RACE 10 - Md $40k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 True Visionary (ML 4-1)
# 8 Zim N the Mailman (ML 15-1)
# 9 Classified Weapon (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 10 Silent Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 12 Well Insulated (ML 10-1)
True Visionary and Classified Weapon are among several here making the big drop from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. True Visionary adds blinkers for Trainer Mike Puype, who gets approximately 23% winners from such. In addition True Visionary shows a fine work over this track on August 3, so he should handle the surface switch okay. Meanwhile, Classified Weapon posted a bullet work here on August 2, so he should be ready to fire as well.
Zim N the Mailman had been running against state bred company, so this move isn't much of a drop. But Trainer Tim Yakteen wins more than his fair share of Maiden Claiming events, as well as contests on synthetic surfaces. The rider switch to Fernando Hernandez Perez, who has been having a fine meet, adds to the appeal.
Silent Ruler is the Desormeaux Brothers entry. Trainer Keith and Jockey Kent have been doing well this meet, so their entry must be respected, though it is worth noting that Silent Ruler has had his chances against claiming competition.
Well Insulated, another making the big drop, goes for Trainer Eric Kruljac, who wins with approximately 22% of such. Well Insulated had a fine work hear on August 8, and the experience competing on the synthetic upstate at Golden Gate should be a plus.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 3,7,12 with 4,8,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 10,12 $8.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetics
A’s
# 3 Yard Line (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Big Tire (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Big Sunshine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Southern Freedom (ML 6-1)
Yard Line sure didn't like the turf last time out; today we'll see how much he likes the synthetic stuff. A repeat of his effort two starts back should get Yard Line the Win today.
Big Tire took the Show at this level over this main track last time out, after dropping down from Graded Stakes company. There's certainly class here, and Big Tire's off the pace running style could prove decisive in a field with more than its fair share of front runners.
Sweet Sunshine returns from a nine month vacation, though he has been working well over this main track. Sweet Sunshine has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed around two turns. This will be Sweet Sunshine's first try against winners.
Southern Freedom has four career races, all of which have been run over this main track; and he's finished in the Trifecta in each of them. Southern Freedom will be competing against winners for the first time; but he's the only one in this field with a win over this track, and the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith must be respected.
RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sea Queen (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Famous Alice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Personal Diary (ML 8-1)
# 3 Istanford (ML 5-1) won Friday's Sandy Blue Handicap here, and therefore has been scratched from today's contest. The scratch of Istanford leaves this field devoid of any horse that has a Win on this turf course. # 9 Maibaby (Ire) (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Sea Queen invades from the East, where she’s been doing just fine, finishing in the Exacta in all but one of her six career starts. Sea Queen can lead the field around the track or she can sit off the pace; with Istanford and Maibaby (Ire) scratched Sea Queen may lead the pack in the early going by default; though Famous Alice may choose to contest the early lead. Sea Queen is the Morning Line Favorite, and I expect her to go to Post at odds well below 2-1.
Famous Alice could benefit from the absence of Istanford, as a softer early pace could allow this daughter of Kitten's Joy to sit close and pounce at just the right moment. Note that the only time that Famous Alice has finished out of the Exacta on the grass was when the turf was less than firm.
Personal Diary would probably have been better served with Istanford in the field, as Personal Diary does her best running late, and a blistering early pace would certainly help her cause. Still, Personal Diary's chances must be respected, as she was able to cross the wire third (placed second due to DQ) in the Grade 3 Regret, just behind Aurelia's Belle, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks.
# 1 Diversy Harbor (ML 9-2) and # 6 My Conquestadory (ML 5-1) are a pair that showed great promise when they began their young careers, but have not developed as hoped. While both have the back class and breeding to contend in this spot, the only way either can win here would be to take a big step forward off their most recent efforts. Perhaps one or both of them will; but I'll be betting against that today.
# 7 Tepin (ML 12-1) is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt making her third career start on turf; and, quite frankly, I think she should keep off the grass. Yes, she did take the Place behind Istanford in the Grade 2 San Clemente on this course last month; but that was back when they had the grass shaved so close that it looked like a billiard table. Just my opinion, of course, but the connections of Tepin would do much better by this horse to move her back to competing on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 6-1)
# 4 Golden Celestial (ML 12-1)
# 6 Adriatic Skye (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bird In Love (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hollywood Producer (ML 20-1)
# 7 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Lakota Road (ML 9-2)
Moscato Girl took the Place against more expensive over this main track two starts back. This is the cheapest tag that Moscato Girl has run for in her career.
Hollywood Producer, Golden Celestial, and Adriatic Style all exit the same last race, which saw Hollywood Producer and Adriatic Skye fight on the lead with the eventual winner (Tim's Go Girl) while Golden Celestial swooped in late to take the Place. Adriatic Skye gets the edge today in my opinion due to the switch back to Trainer Vann Belvoir, who re-claimed her from the last event after having lost her in her prior contest. In addition Adriatic Skye shows a bullet work over this main track on August 12, which means that she's ready to fire again. Should Adriatic Skye not fire, Hollywood Producer could be the one leading the pack around the track; while if things get frantic again, Golden Celestial could be the only horse still running at the finish.
Bird in Love (GB) is the only runner in this field with a Win over this main track, and she enters this contest with the best last out Beyer (also earned over this main track).
Brandon's Princess took the Show at this class level her last time out. Brandon's Princess has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but in a field without a standout, it's not hard to imagine her winning while the rest of the field backs away from the Finish Line.
Lakota Road runs for a tag for the first time since her debut after posting her lowest career Beyer Speed Figure since her debut. The public work on August 9 doesn't inspire confidence, other than that is it a public work, so she can't be too off form. Anyway, if Lakota Road can run back to any of the Beyers that she was earning earlier this year, she'll win this one by daylight; but it's far more likely that she doesn't.
# 5 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) experienced a noticeable drop in her Beyer Speed Figures in her last contest compared to those from her prior two starts. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Coconut Cream Pie was also sporting front leg wraps for the first time in her career in her last race. Since Coconut Cream Pie shows no public works since that last contest, it's easy to presume that she is not in her top form. In addition, Coconut Cream Pie earned her lowest career Beyer in her only prior race on the Del Mar main track. Therefore, Coconut Cream Pie, despite being the Morning Line Favorite, will not be on any on my tickets today; so if she wins, I lose.
A’s
# 4 True Visionary (ML 4-1)
# 8 Zim N the Mailman (ML 15-1)
# 9 Classified Weapon (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 10 Silent Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 12 Well Insulated (ML 10-1)
True Visionary and Classified Weapon are among several here making the big drop from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. True Visionary adds blinkers for Trainer Mike Puype, who gets approximately 23% winners from such. In addition True Visionary shows a fine work over this track on August 3, so he should handle the surface switch okay. Meanwhile, Classified Weapon posted a bullet work here on August 2, so he should be ready to fire as well.
Zim N the Mailman had been running against state bred company, so this move isn't much of a drop. But Trainer Tim Yakteen wins more than his fair share of Maiden Claiming events, as well as contests on synthetic surfaces. The rider switch to Fernando Hernandez Perez, who has been having a fine meet, adds to the appeal.
Silent Ruler is the Desormeaux Brothers entry. Trainer Keith and Jockey Kent have been doing well this meet, so their entry must be respected, though it is worth noting that Silent Ruler has had his chances against claiming competition.
Well Insulated, another making the big drop, goes for Trainer Eric Kruljac, who wins with approximately 22% of such. Well Insulated had a fine work hear on August 8, and the experience competing on the synthetic upstate at Golden Gate should be a plus.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 3,7,12 with 4,8,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 10,12 $8.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 10, 2014
8/10/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 10 Magic Beam (Final Odds 4.90) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Manahatta (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The John C. Mabee - # 5 Moulin de Mougin (8.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hidden Zensation - (5.90) - No Selection
We had three "A" Selections in the opening leg; all three finished out of the money. We had two "A" Selections in the second leg; both of those finished out of the money. We had two "A" selections in the final leg; both of those finished out of the money. In the featured 8th Race one of our two "A's", # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (1.80*) finished last. Our only "A" Selection to finish in the money was # 3 Wishing Gate (2.40) who took the Place in the John C. Mabee.
Needless to say, it was not one of our better efforts. Still, we did have three of the four winners on our tickets; so it's not as if we were totally asleep at the wheel. In addition, two of our "A" Selections, # 4 Diva Express (3.90) in Race 7, and # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) were bothered enough in their respective races to require the stewarts to review the running, though no change was made in either event. So our failure wasn't quite as spectacular as it could have been. Still, lose one or lose 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line, as all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 1 / 5 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1,533.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 1 Manahatta (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The John C. Mabee - # 5 Moulin de Mougin (8.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hidden Zensation - (5.90) - No Selection
We had three "A" Selections in the opening leg; all three finished out of the money. We had two "A" Selections in the second leg; both of those finished out of the money. We had two "A" selections in the final leg; both of those finished out of the money. In the featured 8th Race one of our two "A's", # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (1.80*) finished last. Our only "A" Selection to finish in the money was # 3 Wishing Gate (2.40) who took the Place in the John C. Mabee.
Needless to say, it was not one of our better efforts. Still, we did have three of the four winners on our tickets; so it's not as if we were totally asleep at the wheel. In addition, two of our "A" Selections, # 4 Diva Express (3.90) in Race 7, and # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) were bothered enough in their respective races to require the stewarts to review the running, though no change was made in either event. So our failure wasn't quite as spectacular as it could have been. Still, lose one or lose 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line, as all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 1 / 5 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1,533.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/10/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
“Don't confuse poor decision-making with destiny. Own your mistakes. It’s ok; we all make them. Learn from them so they can empower you!” ― Steve Maraboli
Staying in SoCal, but switching from early to late: taking a run at Sunday's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Too Fast to Pass (Morning Line 8-1)
# 3 Motown Men (ML 3-1)
# 7 Gladding (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Wildcat Moon (ML 6-1)
# 10 Magic Beam (ML 6-1)
Too Fast to Pass has been in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Del Mar main track. Too Fast to Pass is two-for-two in his career at today's distance, two-for-four on synthetic surfaces, and had a bullet work 7/28 over this main track.
Motown Men missed by a neck at this level at today's distance last time out. Motown Men won his only prior race over this main track, and had a bullet workout here 8/4. This will be Motown Men's first race since last November, but Trainer Phillip D'Amato wins over thirty-five percent of the time with runners coming back from a vacation of over six months.
Gladding drops in for the lowest price tag of his career; nothing suspicious, as his connections are simply trying to get him his first win since July 1, 2012. Gladding took the Show in his only prior start over this main track, but the 86 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day would certainly put him in the mix in today's contest.
Wildcat Moon was within a length of the winner in each of his last four starts, all at a higher class level than today's contest. Wildcat Moon took the Place in each of his two career races over this main track, and has finished in the money in nine of his eleven career starts on synthetics. You may choose to leave Wildcat Moon off your multi-race tickets, but you certainly want to be sure to use him in your vertical wagers.
Magic Beam is three-for-eight competing on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money all times but once in those eight races. Magic Beam owns the career best Beyer Speed Figure for this main track in today's field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Diva Express (ML 3-1)
# 5 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Manahatta (ML 5-2)
Diva Express and Maybellene finished second-third (respectively) in their mutual debut over this main track last month. If either repeats their performance that day today, they'll win.
Manahatta debuts for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins about a third of the time with such. Manahatta is by Old Fashioned, whose progeny win approximately fifteen percent of their initial tries. Note also the back-to-back bullet workouts over this main track on 7/31 and 8/6.
RACE 8 - The John C. Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wishing Gate (ML 7-2)
# 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Every Way (ML 6-1)
# 5 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 8 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cozze Up Lady (ML 9-2)
Wishing Gate is two-for-four (with one Place) for her career on the Del Mar turf. Wishing Gate has a pair of Graded Stakes wins on the grass, though it should be noted that Gary Stevens, who will not be riding today, was on her back for both of those wins.
Miss Serendipity (Arg) won the Grade 1 Gamely her last time out at Santa Anita at today's distance. While Miss Serendipity has been ridden by today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, previously, and was also previously ridden by Gary Stevens, it should be noted that the only times that she has finished in the money in North America have been with Jockey Brice Blanc on her back.
Every Way has either won or been within a half length of the winner in each of her last five races. Expect Every Way to be forwardly placed early.
Moulin de Mougin, a daughter of Curlin, is the only multi-time winner at today's distance on the grass in this field.
Stormy Lucy will be ridden for the first time today by Jockey Corey Nakatani. Stormy Lucy has a pair of Graded Stakes wins, but both of those victories came with Jockey Rafael Bejarano riding her.
Cozze Up Lady has won and taken the Show in her two career tries on the Del Mar turf. With the program scratch of # 4 Miss Ellany (Ire) Cozze Up Lady could find herself controlling the pace in the early going.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Juliet's Tizzy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Intoclassymischief (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 11 Broadcaster (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Juliet's Tizzy goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with nearly thirty percent of such. Juliet's Tizzy had a Place and a Show finish four and two starts back, respectively, against more expensive stock.
Intoclassymischief has demonstrated early speed in several of his previous races, including those against non-claiming Maidens. This will be the first start of the year for Intoclasssymischief; if he has matured during his time away from racing, he just may run these off their feet.
Broadcaster (Ire) proved that he didn't like the dirt his last time out. Broadcaster has shown himself to be competitive on the grass, so it's a jump ball as to whether or not he'll take to the Del Mar Polytrack.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1 with 3,6 with 2,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 2,5,8,9 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 11 $6.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Staying in SoCal, but switching from early to late: taking a run at Sunday's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Too Fast to Pass (Morning Line 8-1)
# 3 Motown Men (ML 3-1)
# 7 Gladding (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Wildcat Moon (ML 6-1)
# 10 Magic Beam (ML 6-1)
Too Fast to Pass has been in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Del Mar main track. Too Fast to Pass is two-for-two in his career at today's distance, two-for-four on synthetic surfaces, and had a bullet work 7/28 over this main track.
Motown Men missed by a neck at this level at today's distance last time out. Motown Men won his only prior race over this main track, and had a bullet workout here 8/4. This will be Motown Men's first race since last November, but Trainer Phillip D'Amato wins over thirty-five percent of the time with runners coming back from a vacation of over six months.
Gladding drops in for the lowest price tag of his career; nothing suspicious, as his connections are simply trying to get him his first win since July 1, 2012. Gladding took the Show in his only prior start over this main track, but the 86 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day would certainly put him in the mix in today's contest.
Wildcat Moon was within a length of the winner in each of his last four starts, all at a higher class level than today's contest. Wildcat Moon took the Place in each of his two career races over this main track, and has finished in the money in nine of his eleven career starts on synthetics. You may choose to leave Wildcat Moon off your multi-race tickets, but you certainly want to be sure to use him in your vertical wagers.
Magic Beam is three-for-eight competing on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money all times but once in those eight races. Magic Beam owns the career best Beyer Speed Figure for this main track in today's field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Diva Express (ML 3-1)
# 5 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Manahatta (ML 5-2)
Diva Express and Maybellene finished second-third (respectively) in their mutual debut over this main track last month. If either repeats their performance that day today, they'll win.
Manahatta debuts for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins about a third of the time with such. Manahatta is by Old Fashioned, whose progeny win approximately fifteen percent of their initial tries. Note also the back-to-back bullet workouts over this main track on 7/31 and 8/6.
RACE 8 - The John C. Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wishing Gate (ML 7-2)
# 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Every Way (ML 6-1)
# 5 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 8 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cozze Up Lady (ML 9-2)
Wishing Gate is two-for-four (with one Place) for her career on the Del Mar turf. Wishing Gate has a pair of Graded Stakes wins on the grass, though it should be noted that Gary Stevens, who will not be riding today, was on her back for both of those wins.
Miss Serendipity (Arg) won the Grade 1 Gamely her last time out at Santa Anita at today's distance. While Miss Serendipity has been ridden by today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, previously, and was also previously ridden by Gary Stevens, it should be noted that the only times that she has finished in the money in North America have been with Jockey Brice Blanc on her back.
Every Way has either won or been within a half length of the winner in each of her last five races. Expect Every Way to be forwardly placed early.
Moulin de Mougin, a daughter of Curlin, is the only multi-time winner at today's distance on the grass in this field.
Cozze Up Lady has won and taken the Show in her two career tries on the Del Mar turf. With the program scratch of # 4 Miss Ellany (Ire) Cozze Up Lady could find herself controlling the pace in the early going.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Juliet's Tizzy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Intoclassymischief (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 11 Broadcaster (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Juliet's Tizzy goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with nearly thirty percent of such. Juliet's Tizzy had a Place and a Show finish four and two starts back, respectively, against more expensive stock.
Intoclassymischief has demonstrated early speed in several of his previous races, including those against non-claiming Maidens. This will be the first start of the year for Intoclasssymischief; if he has matured during his time away from racing, he just may run these off their feet.
Broadcaster (Ire) proved that he didn't like the dirt his last time out. Broadcaster has shown himself to be competitive on the grass, so it's a jump ball as to whether or not he'll take to the Del Mar Polytrack.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1 with 3,6 with 2,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 2,5,8,9 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 11 $6.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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