Hope everyone is enjoying their Labor Day Holiday and, well, that's pretty much all I have as far as introductions go. So with that, let's take a look at today's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sweet Sunshine (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Seeking the West (ML 3-1)
# 9 Cravin Carats (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
Sweet Sunshine missed by a length of winning at this level last time out, and his off the pace running style should prove useful today.
Seeking the West has the type of career record I usually try to avoid playing on top: twelve starts, one win, four seconds, two thirds: a hanger. Seeking the West has also lost at this level in his last eight races. So why is he on this ticket? Because in his last race Seeking the West did something that he hadn't done in a long, long time: crossed the wire closer to the winner than he was at first call. You know the last time Seeking the West accomplished that feat? November 11, 2013, in the race right before he broke his maiden for his only career victory. Maybe lightening can strike twice.
Craving Carats' only prior career start on a synthetic surface was as a two year old in a Graded Stakes, so I don't think we can extract much from that performance. If Craving Carats' recent form on turf can transfer to the Polytrack, then he should be right in the mix today.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stormy Lucy (ML 5-1)
# 7 Parranda (ML 3-1)
# 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Stormy Lucy had a pair of Graded Stakes wins back in the Spring over the Santa Anita turf. Rafael Bejarano was her rider for both of those victories. Bejarano hasn't ridden Stormy Lucy since, and Stormy Lucy hasn't won since. Bejarano will be on her back again today.
In her last five turf starts Parranda has won three Graded Stakes. Miss Serendipity (Arg) is the only Grade 1 winner in today's field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Lucky Logan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ultimate Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flexible (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mischief Clem (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Lucky Logan is the only experienced runner in this field. He's been quick out of the gate in each of his two career starts, so maybe he can be gone before the other runners realize that they're in a race. Lucky Logan has undergone the ultimate equipment change, so perhaps that will help him stay focused until he reaches the wire.
Ultimate Luck is sired by Lucky J. H., the sire of Lucky S. J., who has begun his career a perfect two-for-two (albeit as a four year old).
Flexible's sire (Olmodavor) gets approximately 15% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Flexible's trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) gets approximately 34% winners from his first time runners. Mischief Clem's sire (Papa Clem) gets approximately 19% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Mischief Clem's trainer (Bob Hess) gets approximately 16% winners from his first time runners. Note that both Hollendorfer and Hess are using their go-to riders for this one (Bejarano and Desormeaux, respectively).
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 No Ez Money (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fight the Power (ML 12-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 9-2)
# 10 Red Man Run (ML 5-1)
C's
None
No Ez Money has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field and is taking a drop in class. If No Ez Money takes to the Del Mar surface he could be speed on the rail and long gone before the others hit the stretch.
Fight the Power and Tribal Dude are a combined two-for-three (with one Show) when racing on the Del Mar main track; and a combined oh-for-twenty-one when racing elsewhere. I think it's fair to say that they both love competing on this surface.
Red Man Run closed well in his last start, his first start ever over the Del Mar main track. There's a lot of early speed in this one, so if Red Man Run can close well again today he should be right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. That's because I think several of these events are wide open, and the inclusion of all the runners that I believe deserve to be considered "C" Contenders would make this play a budget buster. Indeed, this is probably a sequence that is best passed instead of played; but with great risk comes great reward, so sometimes you just have to roll the dice. So with that, here's our one ticket for today:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,9 with 1,7,9 with 3,4,8,9 with 1,6,9,10 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 1, 2014
Sunday, August 31, 2014
8/31/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 3 Diamond of Blue (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Derby - # 3 Midnight Storm (17.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Gold Medallion (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Halljoy (Ire) (3.30) - "A" Selection
Today's Del Mar Derby showed why a horse loose on the lead, even on turf, is always a tremendous force; as Jockey Tyler Baze had Midnight Storm in front of the pack all the way around the track. Meanwhile Jockey Martin Garcia had his mount, # 2 Sawyer's Hill (12.20) perched in second behind Midnight Storm for most of the race right up to the wire; those who were fortunate enough to have the Midnight Storm / Sawyer's Hill Exacta were rewarded with a return of $140.20 for their one dollar wager. Needless to say, I was not among those who had it.
Diamond of Blue and Halljoy (Ire) were Jockey Rafael Bejarano's fifth and sixth Wins on the day; so congrats to him on an outstanding performance. We were right to doubt # 7 Hawk's Eyes (0.80*) chances in Race 10, and it's always nice to bring home a non-Favorite "A" Selection, as we did with Halljoy; but you're not going to collect if you don't have any part of the Winner of the Featured Race, and that was our fate today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 1 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $1,267.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Del Mar Derby - # 3 Midnight Storm (17.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Gold Medallion (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Halljoy (Ire) (3.30) - "A" Selection
Today's Del Mar Derby showed why a horse loose on the lead, even on turf, is always a tremendous force; as Jockey Tyler Baze had Midnight Storm in front of the pack all the way around the track. Meanwhile Jockey Martin Garcia had his mount, # 2 Sawyer's Hill (12.20) perched in second behind Midnight Storm for most of the race right up to the wire; those who were fortunate enough to have the Midnight Storm / Sawyer's Hill Exacta were rewarded with a return of $140.20 for their one dollar wager. Needless to say, I was not among those who had it.
Diamond of Blue and Halljoy (Ire) were Jockey Rafael Bejarano's fifth and sixth Wins on the day; so congrats to him on an outstanding performance. We were right to doubt # 7 Hawk's Eyes (0.80*) chances in Race 10, and it's always nice to bring home a non-Favorite "A" Selection, as we did with Halljoy; but you're not going to collect if you don't have any part of the Winner of the Featured Race, and that was our fate today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 1 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $1,267.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/31/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
First things first: Tom Durkin's final call is today's Spinaway, Race 10 at Saratoga. Post Time is 5:47 EDT / 2:47 PDT. Be sure to schedule today's activities accordingly. Now onto the Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Diamond of Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Motown Men (ML 6-1)
Diamond of Blue grabbed the early lead his last time out over this main track and never let go, winning by over a half dozen lengths. Diamond of Blue is three-for five for his career over the Del Mar main track, but this is a pretty significant rise in class.
Warren's Joe T. has four lifetime Wins, three of which came over a synthetic surface. Warren's Joe T. took the Place at Sacramento last month on dirt in an Optional Claimer, and followed that up with a bullet work over the Golden Gate synthetic track on August 1. Steady works since suggest that he has kept his form, and his running style of pressing the pace should work well in this field. The addition of Victor Espinoza as rider is a plus.
Dr Action (Arg) was a Graded Stakes winner in Peru, but couldn't hit the board in three tries here in California; so this is a logical move down the class ladder. I don't know if Dr Action will take to the synthetic surface, but you have to respect a horse getting this kind of class relief.
Motown Men won at this level three starts back, and is one-for-two lifetime over the Del Mar main track. If Diamond of Blue falters, it could be Motown Men leading the pack around the track today.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Enterprising (ML 9-5)
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 6 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I see this one as a pretty wide open affair, as it's a Grade 2 stakes without a Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner in the field.
Talco (Fr) is stakes placed in his native France, and (based upon his relatively low Tomlinson Rating for Wet surfaces) should appreciate today's firm course. Note that the Trainer / Jockey tandem of John Sadler / Corey Nakatani has won approximately 23% of their mounts over the past couple of years.
Enterprising is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, having won the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course his last time out. Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby his last time out. Flamboyant defeated both Home Run Kitten and Enterprising back in April in the La Puente.
Home Run Kitten has been in the Trifecta in all three of his turf starts. Home Run Kitten misses by just a neck of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Adventor (Fr) is Group Stakes placed in his native France, and was much the best as the Post Time Favorite in his last contest.
RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 10-1)
# 7 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Gold Medallion (ML 7-2)
# 8 Two Is to Many (ML 10-1)
RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Diamond of Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Motown Men (ML 6-1)
Diamond of Blue grabbed the early lead his last time out over this main track and never let go, winning by over a half dozen lengths. Diamond of Blue is three-for five for his career over the Del Mar main track, but this is a pretty significant rise in class.
Warren's Joe T. has four lifetime Wins, three of which came over a synthetic surface. Warren's Joe T. took the Place at Sacramento last month on dirt in an Optional Claimer, and followed that up with a bullet work over the Golden Gate synthetic track on August 1. Steady works since suggest that he has kept his form, and his running style of pressing the pace should work well in this field. The addition of Victor Espinoza as rider is a plus.
Dr Action (Arg) was a Graded Stakes winner in Peru, but couldn't hit the board in three tries here in California; so this is a logical move down the class ladder. I don't know if Dr Action will take to the synthetic surface, but you have to respect a horse getting this kind of class relief.
Motown Men won at this level three starts back, and is one-for-two lifetime over the Del Mar main track. If Diamond of Blue falters, it could be Motown Men leading the pack around the track today.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Enterprising (ML 9-5)
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 6 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I see this one as a pretty wide open affair, as it's a Grade 2 stakes without a Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner in the field.
Talco (Fr) is stakes placed in his native France, and (based upon his relatively low Tomlinson Rating for Wet surfaces) should appreciate today's firm course. Note that the Trainer / Jockey tandem of John Sadler / Corey Nakatani has won approximately 23% of their mounts over the past couple of years.
Enterprising is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, having won the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course his last time out. Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby his last time out. Flamboyant defeated both Home Run Kitten and Enterprising back in April in the La Puente.
Home Run Kitten has been in the Trifecta in all three of his turf starts. Home Run Kitten misses by just a neck of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Adventor (Fr) is Group Stakes placed in his native France, and was much the best as the Post Time Favorite in his last contest.
RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 10-1)
# 7 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Gold Medallion (ML 7-2)
# 8 Two Is to Many (ML 10-1)
Woodmans Luck won the last race ever at Hollywood Park; and hasn't won since. But the abundance of early speed in this contest coupled with the drop in class makes him a contender in this field.
Hawk's Eyes (Brz) won at this level over this main track at today's distance his last time out. Hawk's Eyes has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; and the Beyer that he earned two starts back would also be the best last-out Beyer in this field. So why isn't Hawk's Eyes singled on my tickets? Because Hawk's Eyes needs the early lead in order to win; and I'm not so sure that he's going to get that early lead today.
Gold Medallion wired the field last time out against slightly less expensive, and with the rail draw could do a repeat performance today. Worth mentioning is that the Trainer / Jockey duo of Trainer Bob Hess / Jockey Kent Desormeaux has won approximately 23% of their starts over the past two years.
Two Is to Many won at this level three starts back, and won against slightly more expensive two starts back. Two Is to Many flopped horribly as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, which was also his debut on a synthetic surface. Perhaps he didn't like the surface; or perhaps he was too anxious to get the lead and couldn't relax. If it's the latter, taking the blinkers off today should help; if it's the former, watch for him when they get back to real dirt.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Halljoy (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Bijoux (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Charm Catcher (ML 6-1)
# 6 See Through (ML 9-2)
# 11 Nighttiming (ML 5-1)
See Through took the Place at this level last time out. This will be See Through's first race not charging down the Santa Anita hill. Halljoy (Ire) took the Place as the odds-on Favorite last time out in Great Britain; a good excuse as any to get out of town and go to the United States.
Charm Catcher finished in the money for the third time in her career at this level last time out; perhaps she just needed some time to figure things out. Bijoux took the Place as the Post Time Favorite at this level in her debut two starts back, and exits a key race. Nighttiming has taken the Place in two of her last three starts at this level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,6 with 5,7 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 1,8 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 5,6,11 $18.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 24, 2014
8/24/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 4 Burning Arch (Final Odds 4.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 5 Goldencents (1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 11 Shared Belief (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 World Famous Sam T (5.10) - "A" Selection
We had to wait out a Stewards' Inquiry in the Pacific Classic, but otherwise there was very little in the way of drama today, as the only runner above who didn't win by daylight was World Famous Sam T in the finale; but another of our "A" Selections, # 1 Industry Leader (3.20* ) took the Place right behind him. Shared Belief demonstrated why he is so highly thought of with his victory today, while Goldencents set a new track record of 1:20.99 while winning by as many as he pleased.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Industry Leader (3.20*) $128.25
# 4 Wholly Hughes (16.10) $317.80
# 5 Navarre (7.00) $204.80
# 6 Charisma Code (6.00) $190.15
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 11 / 12 paid $168.45 for a fifty cent wager, giving us a return of a little less than 3-2 on our $67.50 investment. It may not be much, but like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 5 Goldencents (1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 11 Shared Belief (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 World Famous Sam T (5.10) - "A" Selection
We had to wait out a Stewards' Inquiry in the Pacific Classic, but otherwise there was very little in the way of drama today, as the only runner above who didn't win by daylight was World Famous Sam T in the finale; but another of our "A" Selections, # 1 Industry Leader (3.20* ) took the Place right behind him. Shared Belief demonstrated why he is so highly thought of with his victory today, while Goldencents set a new track record of 1:20.99 while winning by as many as he pleased.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Industry Leader (3.20*) $128.25
# 4 Wholly Hughes (16.10) $317.80
# 5 Navarre (7.00) $204.80
# 6 Charisma Code (6.00) $190.15
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 11 / 12 paid $168.45 for a fifty cent wager, giving us a return of a little less than 3-2 on our $67.50 investment. It may not be much, but like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/14 GG R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, made it back-to-back Wins for Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo Sunday, getting up just in time to defeat Aliza's Dream (Final Odds 22.80) by a nose in Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields. According to the chart caller, City Chapel (7.20), running with a $20k price tag on his head, "had no speed, trailed to the turn, circled four then five wide to the stretch, rallied when set down for the drive and closed stoutly to get a desperate nod."
This marks City Chapel's seventh career Win, his sixth since being claimed by Trujillo for $4k almost exactly two years ago out of this race, where City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80. Today's victory was worth $10,800 in purse money, bringing City Chapel's total earning since running for Trujillo to $93,405.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This marks City Chapel's seventh career Win, his sixth since being claimed by Trujillo for $4k almost exactly two years ago out of this race, where City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80. Today's victory was worth $10,800 in purse money, bringing City Chapel's total earning since running for Trujillo to $93,405.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Moving our focus from East Coast back to West, as today is Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar. Unlike yesterday at Saratoga, there won't be an all Graded Stakes Pick Four today (though there easily could have been, by just moving the Del Mar Handicap from yesterday to today, and then changing the order of today's card; just sayin') but we still get a pretty good sequence for the Pick Four.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Burning Arch (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Burns Turn (ML 7-2)
# 9 Al Freej (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Burning Arch broke her maiden her last time out, but this isn't her first time against winners, as she competed in the Grade 3 Senorita back in June. Burning Arch is the only runner in this field with a Win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course (Zanbo was another, but she did not draw in off the Also Eligibles list), and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does a fine job of placing his runners who graduated last time out, winning over a quarter of the time with such.
Burns Turn moves up from the training ranks, where she has done well enough finding the Winners' Circle. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Burns Turn last time out when she won here on the Polytrack, gets the mount again today.
Al Freej did not fare well in her North American debut her last time out; perhaps she needed the race. Trainer Mike Pender wins with approximately 24% of his runners who are going second time off a layoff. I expect a much improved effort.
# 10 Baruta (ML 5-2) was the Post Time favorite in each of her five previous races, and she took the Place in all five. Maybe today is the day that she finally decides not to hang at the wire; if so, then this ticket will turn to trash, as I have no intention of using Baruta in my play today.
RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Fed Biz (ML 2-1)
# 5 Goldencents (ML 5-2)
# 7 Big Macher (ML 3-2)
C’s
None
I don't expect any surprises here, as I see this contest as being very formful. Last year's edition of this event saw Fed Biz getting up late to pass Goldencents approaching the wire; as both these runners are coming into today's race in shape, I see no reason why they couldn't form the Quinella yet again. Big Macher misses by just a half length of coming into this contest with three straight Graded Stakes wins (four straight wins overall); obviously he belongs, and is just as likely a winner today as the other two top contenders.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Majestic Harbor (ML 9-2)
# 9 Clubhouse Ride (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shared Belief (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Majestic Harbor easily took the Grade 1 Used To Be Hollywood Gold Cup his last time out, winning by over a half dozen lengths. The question is will that dirt form transfer to the synthetic today.
Clubhouse Ride took the Place behind Majestic Harbor in the Hey Stop Calling It Hollywood Gold Cup last time out. Clubhouse Ride lost ground in the stretch that day; and I like what Trainer Craig Lewis has done since that event. In an attempt to build Clubhouse Ride's stamina, Lewis has given his runner three seven furlong workouts along with one eight furlong workout. Will the extended works do the trick? We'll know for sure about two minutes after Post Time.
Shared Belief is a perfect five-for-five for his career, with four of those victories coming on a synthetic surface. Shared Belief and Clubhouse Ride are both sired by Candy Ride (Arg) who won this event exactly eleven years ago today, August 24, 2003.
# 5 Game On Dude (ML 3-1) is, sad to say, no longer the horse he once was. The Dude has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six starts. Game On Dude simply can no longer win without getting loose on the lead early; and I just don't see that happening today.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Industry Leader (ML 9-2)
# 4 Wholly Hughes (ML 8-1)
# 5 Navarre (ML 6-1)
# 6 Charisma Code (ML 8-1)
# 12 World Famous Sam T (ML 5-1)
C's
None
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Burning Arch (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Burns Turn (ML 7-2)
# 9 Al Freej (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Burning Arch broke her maiden her last time out, but this isn't her first time against winners, as she competed in the Grade 3 Senorita back in June. Burning Arch is the only runner in this field with a Win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course (Zanbo was another, but she did not draw in off the Also Eligibles list), and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does a fine job of placing his runners who graduated last time out, winning over a quarter of the time with such.
Burns Turn moves up from the training ranks, where she has done well enough finding the Winners' Circle. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Burns Turn last time out when she won here on the Polytrack, gets the mount again today.
Al Freej did not fare well in her North American debut her last time out; perhaps she needed the race. Trainer Mike Pender wins with approximately 24% of his runners who are going second time off a layoff. I expect a much improved effort.
# 10 Baruta (ML 5-2) was the Post Time favorite in each of her five previous races, and she took the Place in all five. Maybe today is the day that she finally decides not to hang at the wire; if so, then this ticket will turn to trash, as I have no intention of using Baruta in my play today.
RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Fed Biz (ML 2-1)
# 5 Goldencents (ML 5-2)
# 7 Big Macher (ML 3-2)
C’s
None
I don't expect any surprises here, as I see this contest as being very formful. Last year's edition of this event saw Fed Biz getting up late to pass Goldencents approaching the wire; as both these runners are coming into today's race in shape, I see no reason why they couldn't form the Quinella yet again. Big Macher misses by just a half length of coming into this contest with three straight Graded Stakes wins (four straight wins overall); obviously he belongs, and is just as likely a winner today as the other two top contenders.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Majestic Harbor (ML 9-2)
# 9 Clubhouse Ride (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shared Belief (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Majestic Harbor easily took the Grade 1 Used To Be Hollywood Gold Cup his last time out, winning by over a half dozen lengths. The question is will that dirt form transfer to the synthetic today.
Clubhouse Ride took the Place behind Majestic Harbor in the Hey Stop Calling It Hollywood Gold Cup last time out. Clubhouse Ride lost ground in the stretch that day; and I like what Trainer Craig Lewis has done since that event. In an attempt to build Clubhouse Ride's stamina, Lewis has given his runner three seven furlong workouts along with one eight furlong workout. Will the extended works do the trick? We'll know for sure about two minutes after Post Time.
Shared Belief is a perfect five-for-five for his career, with four of those victories coming on a synthetic surface. Shared Belief and Clubhouse Ride are both sired by Candy Ride (Arg) who won this event exactly eleven years ago today, August 24, 2003.
# 5 Game On Dude (ML 3-1) is, sad to say, no longer the horse he once was. The Dude has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six starts. Game On Dude simply can no longer win without getting loose on the lead early; and I just don't see that happening today.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Industry Leader (ML 9-2)
# 4 Wholly Hughes (ML 8-1)
# 5 Navarre (ML 6-1)
# 6 Charisma Code (ML 8-1)
# 12 World Famous Sam T (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Industry Leader was up near the pace in each of his last two starts against more expensive; perhaps he can be speed on the rail today. Wholly Hughes took the Place at this class level over this track last time out. Navarre goes first off the claim for Trainer Craig Dollase, who wins approximately 23% of the time with such.
Charisma Code is a perfect one-for-one in his career at the six and a half furlong distance. Charisma Code will be getting some class relief today. World Famous Sam T set the pace at this class level last time out before running out of gas; perhaps today, with blinkers off, he holds something in reserve until he gets to the wire.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. This does not represent a change in strategy, but rather reflects my opinion that the contenders in each leg were evenly matched (actually, there was one leg where I could have split between "A's" and "C's"; but splitting on just one leg means you're still covering all horses on all tickets). So with that, we get just one ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 2,5,7 with 7,9,11 with 1,4,5,6,12 $67.50
Total: $67.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)