8/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 4 Ultimate Holiday (Final Odds 6.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The John C Mabee - # 8 Elektrum (Ire) (3.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Nextdoorneighbor (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 2 Barbs Angel (1.80*) - "A" Selection

We were wrong about # 9 Black Betsy (4.10) getting the early lead in the opening leg of the sequence.  Of course, she had to run the entire backstretch and into the turn ten wide (in a nine horse field!) to do it, but Black Betsy did have the early lead.  Anyway, we went six deep in a nine horse field and still managed to miss the winner; definitely not a good showing.  We also missed the winner of the J C Mabee; congrats to the trip handicappers who recognized Elektrum (Ire) would do better today with some running room; indeed, they thought well enough of her to bet her down to nearly half of her Morning Line 6-1 odds.

So we managed to whiff on half of our picks.  Too bad we didn't just take our bankroll and just put it all on the Late Double.  But that wasn't the pool that we were swimming in, and you don't get credit for having Gin when you're playing Hearts.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 8 / 7 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $201.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Big doings on the East Coast today, as they're running The Whitney at Saratoga.  Meanwhile Del Mar is offering a pair of Graded Stakes on its card: The Best Pal for two year olds, which will be Race 5, and The John C Mabee, for fillies and mares on the grass.  The latter is carded for Race 8, which makes it a part of the Pick Four that we'll be chasing at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Power of Ten (Morning Line 6-1)
# 7 Discatsonthesquare (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 8 Fast and Foxy (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Frisco Fog (ML 12-1)

# 5 Pearl de Vere (ML 3-1)

# 9 Black Betsy (ML 6-1)

Power of Ten's last eleven races have been at the OC 62k/N2X level, in which she finished in the money six times, including one win.  Power of Ten now drops back down to the N1X level and gets a a change in rider, the combination of which could get her to the Winner's Circle today.

Discatsonthesquare has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last two races.  Fast and Foxy and Frisco Fog look to be the primary speed in this contest.  Black Betsy got burnt in a speed duel last time out; perhaps new rider Tyler Baze will be able to get her to sit back and wait.

Pearl de Vere earned a pair of Beyer Speed Figures in her last two races that, if either were to be repeated, could see her crossing the wire first today.  But both those Beyers were earned by charging down the hill at Santa Anita; Pearl de Vere's more recent dirt form has been much less impressive.

RACE 8 - (F) The John C Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Emotional Kitten (ML 4-1)

# 3 Fanticola (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Stormy Lucy (ML 4-1)

# 5 Personal Diary (ML 15-1)

# 6 Gusto Dolce (Uru) (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

It looks like this one boils down to either Fanticola early or Emotional Kitten late.  These two strike me as the best two in this field; now it's just a matter of which performs better at their preferred running style.

Stormy Lucy could be the one catching Fanticola late if Emotional Kitten fails to fire.  Personal Diary ran the best race of her life almost one year ago today when she won the Del Mar Oaks in her only prior contest on this turf course.  Perhaps the return to this setting will inspire Personal Diary to excel today.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs

A’s

# 7 Nextdoorneighbor (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 War Academy (ML 8-1)

# 6 Sacred Ovation (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Real Heat (ML 12-1)

# 9 Expo and Fig (ML 4-1)

Nextdoorneighbor is 5-1-1 in the seven contests that he's run since being claimed by Trainer Peter Miller.  War Academy takes a huge drop down the class ladder and could be speed on the rail.  If Sacred Ovation can return to the form that he showed in his two races prior to his most recent, then he could be getting his picture taken today.  

Real Heat earned a Beyer Speed Figure two starts back that could get the job done today if repeated.  However, Real Heat has earned only one Beyer within a dozen points of that number in his most recent twelve starts.  Expo and Fig has won each of his last two races convincingly, albeit against much cheaper competition.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Barbs Angel (ML 2-1)

B's

# 9 Unwarrented (ML 20-1)

# 12 Chicago Angel (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 My Moment Too (ML 20-1)

# 5 Lady Juliet (ML 8-1)

# 7 Miss Green Pond (ML 10-1)

# 13 Felicity Doll (ML 20-1) and # 14 Stormys' Blazer (ML 20-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Barbs Angel took the Place last time against more expensive, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  Unwarrented is a home bred debut runner who looks to be well meant.  Chicago Angel has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last four races, and seeks to prove that the fourteenth time is the charm.

My Moment Too took the Show at this level two starts back, albeit some sixteen months ago.  Lady Juliet drops in for the lowest price tag of her career.  Miss Green Pond took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 7 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 2,3 with 1,6,7 with 2,9,12 $27.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 3,5,9 with 2,3 with 7 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 2,9 with 2 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 7 with 3,5,7 $6.00

Total: $46.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/2/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 I'll Wrap It Up (Final Odds 2.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Blameitonthelaw (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 One More (9.50) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Flat Gone (1.50*) - "A" Selection

As sometimes happens, we had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.  Our failure to recognize I'll Wrap It Up and Blameitonthelaw as "A" contenders doomed our play to failure.  Yes, upgrading One More from a "C" to a "B" would also have led us to the cashier's window; but failing to recognize the winners of the first two legs as top contenders seems in retrospect to have been the more egregious error.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 3 / 7 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $271.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/2/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Big doings on the East Coast, as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah returns to competition in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.  As for us, we'll be turning our attention to the West, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Cervaro (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Silver Torch (ML 8-1)
# 4 All Run (ML 6-1)
# 9 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Apostle Paul (ML 12-1)
# 11 Commander King (ML 6-1)

# 7 Lambo Luxx (No Line) is a program scratch.   That allows Commander King to draw in off the Also Eligible List; but # 12 Derby Glass (ML 5-1) and # 13 Mister Blue (ML 8-1) don't draw in, and get to hang out in the barn.

Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least not until they finally fix that flaw).

Cervaro goes first off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who wins with approximately 35% of such.  Silver Torch closed well two starts back while taking the Show at this class level.

I'll Wrap It Up and All Run took the Place and Show, respectively, their last time out, charging down the Santa Anita hill at this class level.  Apostle Paul and Commander King finished a head apart while filling out the Superfecta last time out at this class level.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Semper Fortis (ML 4-1)
# 9 Who's Out (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Blameitonthelaw (ML 5-2)

C's

# 7 Global Event (ML 7-2)

# 1 Street Rules (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

This one's for juveniles, with all but one of the entrants (# 4 Phantom Heat (ML 20-1)) being first time starters.

Semper Fortis is sired by Distorted Humor; Who's Out is sired by Tale of Ekati; the get of both those sires do quite well in their first attempts.  

Blameitonthelaw is trained by John Sadler, who wins a little over twenty percent of the time that he sends out a debut runner.  Blameitonthelaw is sired by Blame, whose progeny win about eighteen percent of the time at first asking.  The concern with Blameitonthelaw is distance, as he may need more than five and a half furlongs to show his best stuff.

Global Event is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia; the Baffert / Garcia combo scored with first time starter One Last Shot in yesterday's Race 7 here at Del Mar at odds of 5-1.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Artistic Charm (GB) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Royal Temptress (Ire) (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Mangita (ML 12-1)

# 7 One More (ML 6-1)

# 5 All Star Bub (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Artistic Charm (GB) steps up in class after defeating OC N1X company on the turf by daylight last time out.  Artistic Charm does her best running on the front end, so the rail draw should suit her well.

Royal Temptress has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two races.  Expect Royal Temptress to be running well late.

Mangita turned in a fine effort two starts back and could improve off that effort if she can avoid an early pace due.  One More has finished in the money each of the last two times that she competed at this class level.

RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 With the Breeze (ML 6-1)

# 5 Flat Gone (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Cowtownmary (ML 15-1)

# 12 Go First (ML 5-1)

C's

None

# 13 Dive Down (ML 10-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

With the Breeze has had only one prior race on a fast dirt track.  That race went around two turns; and despite fading badly in the stretch, With the Breeze earned a Beyer Speed Figure in that contest that tops the career best for most of his opponents in this field.  A repeat of that effort could land With the Breeze in the Winner's Circle today.

Flat Gone took the Place against more expensive last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  Cowtownmary could be the quickest out of what looks to be a pretty paceless group.  Go First looks like he's positioned to move forward off his last race.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,9 with 3,8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5,8,12 $48.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 1,11 with 8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 1,4 with 3,5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 8,9 with 6,7 with 3,5 $4.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:40 EDT / 4:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/1/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 4 One Last Shot (Final Odds 5.10) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Clement L Hirsch - # 1 Beholder (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Smooth Roller (2.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 2 Win the Space (5.50) - No Selection

We managed to get an "A" Selection home, and a single "A" at that.  But that's about it for the good news today; as we underestimated the winner of the opener, and totally whiffed on the winner of the finale.  Today would have been a good day to just put all our money on our single "A", as that play would have given us profit, while our Pick Four play today brings us nothing but heartache.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 1 / 8 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $241.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/1/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

A new month begins; and, as with all things new, hope is re-born.  The featured race today at Del Mar is the Clement L Hirsch, a Grade 1 for older fillies and mares.  The C L Hirsch is Race 8 on the card, so it's part of the Pick Four that we'll be chasing at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Seaside Glory (Morning Line 12-1)
# 2 Oh Great Idea (ML 5-2)
# 8 Corps de Ballet (ML 15-1)
# 10 Shakti (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Flying Tinkerbell (ML 15-1)
# 9 Two Steps of Glory (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Forever Darling (ML 8-1)
# 4 One Last Shot (ML 3-1)

None of the horses on the Also Eligible List (#11 Miss Priss (ML 20-1); # 12 Asian's Way (No Line); # 13 My Dynamo (ML 20-1); # 14 Touch and Smile (ML 5-1)) draw in.

This one is for two year old fillies, with eight of the ten runners going to the post for the first time in their respective careers.  There seems to be a lot of young talent here; I'll be very much surprised if this contest doesn't turn into a key race.  

Seaside Glory is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins approximately thirty percent of the time that he sends out a debut runner.  Oh Great Idea and Shakti are two first time starters trained by Peter Miller.  Both Oh Great Idea and Shakti have posted bullet workouts over this main track within the past two weeks.  Corps de Ballet, another first time starter, is sired by Speightstown, whose progeny win approximately seventeen percent of their debut tries.  Note that Seaside Glory is also sired by Speightstown.

One Last Shot, a debut runner trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, is sired by Any Given Saturday, whose progeny win at first asking slightly less than eleven percent of the time.  The concern with One Last Shot is the almost two week gap between her works of 7/11 and 7/24.

Flying Tinkerbell is a first time starter that has earned a pair of bullet works over the Del Mar main track.  Two Steps of Glory is sired by Two Step Salsa, whose get win nearly twenty percent of their debuts.  Forever Darling is a first time starter sired by Congrats, whose offspring win approximately twelve percent of their debuts.

RACE 8 - (F) The Clement L Hirsch (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Beholder (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C's

None

# 9 Gusto Dolce (Uru) (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Beholder is the best horse in this race.  If Beholder brings her "A" game, she wins.  If Beholder brings her "B" game, she probably still wins.  So this is our play; if Beholder loses, then so do we, as she's going to be the only runner from this contest on our tickets.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Old Man Lake (ML 8-1)

# 6 Downtown C. T. (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 5 Just Kidding (ML 5-1)

# 7 Perfect Set (ML 3-1)

# 8 Smooth Roller (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Yahoo Tahoe (ML 10-1)

# 4 Seeking the West (ML 5-1)

# 10 Red Button (ML 10-1)

Old Man Lake took the Show against state-bred stakes company last time out.  Downtown C. T. took the Place at this approximate class level last time out.

Just Kidding is trying winners for the first time; but he has been showing consistent steady improvement since moving to two turn races on the dirt.  Perfect Set, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has shown sharp improvement since donning the blinkers.  Smooth Roller won his career debut last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that fits in well with these.

Yahoo Tahoe fits well with this group on class; but the switch to real dirt from the synthetic surface is a concern.  Seeking the West has settled for a lot of minor awards in the past; maybe the light bulb turns on today.  Red Button is getting some huge class relief here; though Red Button's best races heretofore have been on the grass.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Second Summer (ML 6-1)

# 7 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Rosicky (ML 7-2)

# 5 Mixio (ML 20-1)

# 11 Tirpitz (ML 5-1)

Second Summer closed well and took the Show at this class level in his only prior career try on the grass, which was over this turf course.  Dylan Ward, now trained by Phil D'Amato, took the Place at this class level last time out.

Rosicky, who finished in the money in all four of his prior career starts, tries the grass for the first time.  Mixio is a first time starter sired by Arch, whose progeny win approximately eleven percent of the time at first asking.  Tirpitz has twice finished in the money at this class level, both times charging down the Santa Anita hill.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,2,8,10 with 1 with 3,6 with 4,7 $16.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,8,9,10 with 1 with 3,5,6,7,8 with 4,7 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 1 with 3,6 with 4,7 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8,10 with 1 with 1,4,10 with 4,7 $12.00

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8,10 with 1 with 3,6 with 1,5,11 $12.00

Total: $74.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo