Saturday, February 4, 2017

2/4/17 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Fabozzi (Final Odds 7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Avicii (2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The San Antonio - # 1 Hoppertunity (2.50) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The San Marcos - # 11 Isotherm (7.60) - No Selection

Back on October 12, 2013 Jockey Corey Nakatani swept The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita, getting his picture taken after each contest, without having been on the Post Time Favorite in any one of the four races.  Saturday, Jockey Flavien Prat turned that same trick.  Unfortunately for us, our tickets only had Prat's horse as the selection for three of those four events, thus making it a day for us to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the two runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 5 Texas Ryano (2.20*) - $152.85 - Finish: 6th
# 12 Hi Happy (Arg) (5.30) - $609.20 - Finish: 4th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 6 / 1 / 11  were rewarded with a payout of $421.45 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/4/17 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

As expected, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire's return to racing has scared away a significant number of runners from today's Kentucky Derby prep.  What wasn't expected was that those runners were scared away from the Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita, since Classic Empire is making his return in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.  But all that is just a secondary concern to us, as we focus on the final four races on the Santa Anita card as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Play Hard to Get (Morning Line 5-1)
# 12 Gangster (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 5 Zip the Monkey (ML 15-1)
# 6 Path of David (ML 6-1)
# 8 Fabozzi (ML 6-1)
# 9 Curlin Rules (ML 7-2)

C's

# 10 Kenjistorm (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 11 Hoffenheim (ML 8-1) and # 14 Sugar Buzz (ML 15-1).  Bring in # 13 Sawyer's Hill (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list.

Play Hard to Get gets some class relief for his 2017 debut, and there should be enough pace in here for him to chase.  The only concern for Play Hard to Get is if eight furlongs is enough real estate for him to shift into his highest gear.

Gangster and Zip the Monkey are two that could benefit from the cutback in distance.  Path of David gets some much needed class relief.  Fabozzi moves up in class after winning by daylight last time out.  Kenjistorm goes first time for the barn of Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.

Curlin Rules would rate much higher in my book if he wasn't adding blinkers today, as the one prior race in which Curlin Rules wore the hood resulted in the worst defeat of his career.  But that contest was also the only time that Curlin Rules tried Graded Stakes company, so it's possible that the equipment change wasn't to blame.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/C - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Plane Lucky (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Calm the Sea (ML 7-2)
# 6 Avicii (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Plane Lucky took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, with Calm the Sea taking the Show behind him.  Calm the Sea could move up today going second off the freshening for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.  Avicii goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who's been winning everything in sight of late.

RACE 8 - The San Antonio (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Hoppertunity (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 El Huerfano (ML 12-1)
# 7 Accelerate (ML 5-2)


C's

# 5 Mor Spirit (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dalmore (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 3 Prospect Park (ML 10-1)

Hopportunity's poor outing last time out in the Grade 1 Clark could be the start of an inevitable decline; or it could be just a one off poor performance from which he will no doubt rebound.  Needless to say, my opinion rests with the latter rather than the former, which is one reason why Hoppertunity sits atop my selections for this contest.  But the primary reason why I have Hoppertunity as an "A" Selection here is because, even if he's not at his best, Hoppertunity is clearly the best horse in this field.

El Huerfano could be the speed of the speed here, and could steal it on the front end if today's distance proves to be insufficient to allow Hoppertunity to hit his best stride.  Accelerate could find himself with a good stalking trip, getting first run at the early leaders.

Mor Spirit, the "other" Baffert, tries older opponents for the first time.  Dalmore took the Show behind Accelerate in the Grade 2 San Pasquale last time out.

RACE 9 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Texas Ryano (ML 3-1)
# 12 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 10-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 4 Blue Tone (ML 12-1); # 7 Gustnado (ML 20-1); # 9 Conquest Daddyo (ML 12-1); # 10 Some in Tieme (Brz) (ML 15-1); and # 14 Frank Consequence (ML 6-1)

Texas Ryano won the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup by as many as he wanted to last time out.  Hi Happy (Arg) could improve off his North American debut with the increase in real estate.

A Red Tie Day has enough early foot that he could find himself with a nice rail trip here.  Flamboyant (Fr) won last year's running of this event.  Itsinthepost (Fr) could get a nice stalking trip here, with first run at the early leaders.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 1 with 5,12 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,8,9,12 with 2,5,6 with 1,4,7 with 5,12 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 1 with 5,12 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 5,6 with 5,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 1 with 1,2,3 $3.00

Total: $66.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, January 29, 2017

1/29/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 6 Silver Beauty (Final Odds 10.20) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 1 Bronzino (Fr) (1.80*) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 8 Tiz Buff (28.50) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Simply Charming (15.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Mi Bouchon (7.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Cherokee in Me (2.90*) - "A" Selection

We used half the field in Race 7 and still managed to miss the winner; worse still, we used three quarters of the field in Race 6 and had no part of the winner in that one either.  Needless to say, not a great day of handicapping on our part; thus making Sunday a day for us to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  6 / 1 / 8 / 1 / 7 / 7  were non-existent.  Nobody had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence today.  Those who correctly picked five out of six were rewarded with a payout of $10 454.90 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/29/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

It's the final Sunday in January, and that's all I've got by way of introduction.  So let's get to it, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at the place where the Bay comes to play.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Hay Dolly (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 3 She's Pretty Windy (ML 2-1)

C's

# 4 Hellacious Hadlee (ML 8-5)
# 6 Silver Beauty (ML 15-1)


I made Hay Dolly my "A" Selection here because I don't trust either of the top two Morning Line Selections to make it around two turns.  I give She's Pretty Windy the benefit of the doubt with the class drop; but Hellacious Hadlee has stopped both times that she's gone beyond six furlongs.  Silver Beauty has proven that she can make the distance, and she may upset; but Silver Beauty has finished behind Hay Dolly enough times that I think that we're best served making her a "C" Selection.

RACE 5 - Alw 40000s N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Village Kitten (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Eddie and the King (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Bronzino (Fr) (ML 8-5)
# 3 John Paul's Bet (ML 3-1)

# 7 Tacola (ML 10-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career but with an exception (N2X) as runners get a pass for having one win against winners, provided that it was for $16k or less.  So in this contest five entrants have two lifetime wins; # 2 Journey to Run (ML 10-1) and # 7 Tacola (ML 10-1) are the two in this field with just one career victory.

Village Kitten took the Place at this class level last time out.  There appears to be more than enough early speed here for Village Kitten to close into.  Eddie and the King is another that could be running well late.

Bronzino (Fr) ships in from downstate, going first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such.  John Paul's Best could move up stretching out to two turns for the first time.  Tacola took the Place at this class level two starts back.

RACE 6 - Md $25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Sheer Prince (ML 12-1)
# 2 Atticism (ML 9-2)

# 5 Pick One (ML 7-5)

B's

# 6 I'mrockingthislife (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Meet the Truth (ML 8-1)
# 7 Pete and Jack (ML 4-1)


Sheer Prince and Atticism are first time starters conditioned by trainers (Blaine Wright and Ed Moger Jr, respectively) who tend to do well when sending out debut runners.  Pick One goes first off the claim for Trainer Bob Hess, Sr, who tends to do well with such.

I'mrockingthislife took the Place at this class level last time out.  Meet the Truth showed good early speed last time out.  Pete and Jack is another first time starter that could be ready to roll.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Spot N the Line (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 3 Semper Gumby (ML 3-1)
# 8 Say Neigh (ML 10-1)

C's

# 6 Knust (ML 5-2)

Spot N the Line took the Place at this class level last time out.  Semper Gumby gets some class relief while going first time for the barn of Trainer Steve Sherman.  Say Neigh took the Show at this class level last time out, his last time racing around just one turn.  Knust has proven that he fits at this class level, though it seems that he's willing to settle for too many minor awards.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 5 Pulmarack (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Mi Bouchon (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Logan's Moon (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sir Vronski (ML 8-1)
# 4 Brownie Finale (ML 9-2)

Pulmarack took the Show at this class level for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer last time out.  Mi Bouchon faces winners for the first time after winning his debut last time out.  Note that Mi Bouchon's trainer, Bill Delia, tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Logan's Moon has shown an affinity for the synthetic surface since shipping in from downstate.  Sir Vronski and Brownie Finale are both horses for the course, though their best efforts have come primarily against weaker competition.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Cherokee in Me (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Silver Spectacle (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bow Tie Belle (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Letmetakeaselfie (ML 6-1)
# 3 Loves the Crowd (ML 3-1)

# 9 Pretty Emma (ML 5-1)

Cherokee in Me won at this class level last time out, with Silver Spectacle crossing under the wire less than a length behind her.  Bow Tie Belle gets some significant class relief here.

Letmetakeaselfie drops down the class ladder into this one; but Letmetakeaselfie seems to prefer the turf over the plastic.  Loves the Crowd is another that fits well here on class, but may prefer running over the grass.  Pretty Emma won by as many as she wanted over this main track last time out at today's distance, albeit against cheaper stock for different connections.

OK, that's the analysis.  While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket.  While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected.  I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up.  So with that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 7 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 5 with 7 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 3,7 with 4,5 with 1,2,5,6 with 3,5,8 with 5,7 with 4,5,7 $57.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 4,6 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 5 with 7 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 7 with 1,3,7 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 5 with 7 $1.80
$0.20 P6: 7 with 5 with 4,7 with 5 with 5 with 7 $0.40
$0.20 P6: 7 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 6 with 5 with 7 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 7 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 1,3,4 with 7 $1.80
$0.20 P6: 7 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 5 with 2,3,9 $1.80

Total: $68.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, January 28, 2017

1/28/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 2 Thirty Pepperonis (Final Odds 2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 1 Positive Outcome (1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Pure Comedy (14.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 River of Champagne (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Emmy and I (4.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Perfect Come Back (2.70*) - "C" Selection*

* - While Perfect Come Back was not on our tickets for Race 9, Perfect Come Back was the Post Time Favorite, and therefore replaced # 4 Passed by Paul when Passed by Paul became a gate scratch.

We made some good calls in our play Saturday; we got our big ticket single, River of Champagne, home in the fourth leg; and the leg where we punched the "ALL" button was won by the largest price in that field, as well as the largest price in the sequence.  We even had all the winners on our tickets.  However, we didn't have all the winners on any one ticket, which is ultimately all that matters; and for that reason, Saturday was a day for us to contribute instead of collect.


Oh well; onto the next race.


Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  2 / 1 / 4 / 1 / 5 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $1,609.62 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

1/28/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

Arrogate and California Chrome, the two best horses currently in training, are having their Breeders' Cup rematch Saturday at Gulfstream Park, as part of a monster card centered around the inaugural running of The Pegasus World Cup.  Meanwhile, Santa Anita, where the rain has finally stopped and the sunshine has returned, is having, appropriately enough, their version of The Sunshine Millions, with several California Cup Stakes.

So with all that, why are we playing Golden Gate, where two thirds of the Pick Six sequence is for lifetime non-winners of one? Well, my thinking is that last week playing Golden Gate we found ourselves on the side of Providence; so why not see if we can find ourselves there once again.  So for this weekend our action will be in Northern California, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at the place where the Bay comes to play.

RACE 4 - Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Italian Fling (Morning Line 7-5)

B's

# 5 Cosmo's Sunset (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Thirty Pepperonis (ML 2-1)

Scratch # 3 Money Mine (ML 15-1)

Races 4 and 7 are two divisions of the same contest, both carded for three year olds.  Italian Fling should improve with the increase in real estate.  Italian Fling will almost definitely be leading the field early, and quite probably late.

Cosmo's Sunset flashed some early speed in his debut last time out.  Thirty Pepperonis ships in from down state and should benefit from the class relief; provided, of course, that he takes to the surface.

RACE 5 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Positive Outcome (ML 2-1)
# 4 Hopesky (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Starting Lineup (ML 3-1)
# 5 Mookie's Wish (ML 6-1)

Positive Outcome and Hopesky each disappointed at this class level (in separate contests) as the Post Time Favorite; however, it's fair to say of each that they both needed their respective last race.  Likewise for Mookie's Wish, who took the Place last time out against cheaper stock in his first contest after a year and a half vacation.  Starting Lineup fits well with these on class, though it appears that Starting Lineup is better suited to shorter distances.

RACE 6 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Mal Verde (ML 5-2)
# 5 Allaboutaction (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Top Pirana (ML 2-1)
# 3 Hypnatique (ML 8-1
# 4 Pure Comedy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Awesome Silver (ML 3-1)

C's

None

The entire field of six for this contest comes out of the same last race, where five of them were within a length of each other as they crossed under the wire.  Mal Verde and Allaboutaction seem to me to be the ones most likely to move forward off that effort; but, really, this is a group of runners that seem to just enjoy taking turns beating each other.

RACE 7 - Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 River of Champagne (ML 1-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Loma Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Hubel Heights (ML 20-1)
# 7 Sierra Sierra (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Chatty Carl (ML 10-1)

Races 4 and 7 are two divisions of the same contest, both carded for three year olds.  River of Champagne disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, when he had to settle for the Place, a little over two lengths in front of Show horse Loma Cat.

Hubel Heights is a first time starter by Swiss Yodeler, whose progeny tend to do reasonably well at first asking.  Sierra Sierra flashed brief early foot in his debut last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Redneck Girl (ML 8-1)
# 7 Matter of Luck (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Breakaway Dixie (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Kelly (ML 8-1)
# 5 Emmy and I (ML 5-1)
# 8 Run for Retts (ML 7-2)
# 9 Meet Miss Kitty (ML 4-1)

Redneck Girl won at this class level last time out; thanks to being a California bred, she gets to compete under these conditions again, though she has to carry some extra weight.  Matter of Luck returns after a bit of a freshening; Matter of Luck seems to do well when she has a chance to get some rest.

Breakaway Dixie took the Show at this class level last time out.  Kelly moves up in class after winning for the third time in her last five starts.  Emmy and I fits at this class level, but seems to have become camera shy.

Run for Retts ships in from downstate to try the synthetic surface for the first time (though she did work over this main track back on the 22nd).  Meet Miss Kitty has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last three starts.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 White Falcon (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 Gallant Heat (ML 9-2)
# 8 Iz Invincible (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Passed by Paul (ML 3-1)
# 5 Whisky N Roses (ML 6-1)
# 9 Pambled (ML 8-1)

White Falcon has finished in the Trifecta at this class level since entering into two turn racing.  Gallant Heat took the Place at this class level two starts back, and could be speed on the rail.  Iz Invincible took the Show at this class level last time out.

Passed by Paul ships in from downstate for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who has been having success doing that with runners of late.  Whisky N Roses tries the synthetic track for the first time.  Pambled took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, albeit while going around just one turn.

OK, that's the analysis.  While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket.  While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected.  I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up.  So with that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 4 with 1,4 with 1,5 with 1 with 4,7 with 7 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 4,5 with 1,4 with ALL with 1 with 3,4,7 with 1,7,8 $43.20

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2 with 1,4 with 1,5 with 1 with 4,7 with 7 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3,5 with 1,5 with 1 with 4,7 with 7 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 4 with 1,4 with 1,5 with 4,5,7 with 4,7 with 7 $4.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 1,4 with 1,5 with 1 with 2,5,8,9 with 7 $3.20
$0.20 P6: 4 with 1,4 with 1,5 with 1 with 4,7 with 4,5,9 $4.80

Total: $67.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo