5/14/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

"My mom is my hero. [She] inspired me to dream when I was a kid, so anytime anyone inspires you to dream, that's gotta be your hero." - Tim McGraw

Happy Mother's Day all!  Hopefully all are doing well and enjoying the day in an appropriate manner, as we dream of good things for the days still to come.  Speaking of dreams, some lucky player certainly had theirs come true yesterday, as they scooped The Golden Pick Six jackpot to the tune of $218,795.84.  So today I'm going to use the lack of a jackpot carryover as an excuse to lighten my workload just a bit, as I set my sights a little lower and take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Global Event (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Undeniable U (ML 2-1)
# 2 Junior G Man (ML 6-1)
# 4 Architop (ML 3-1)

C's

# 6 Journey to Run (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, Undeniable U and # 5 Chanted (ML 12-1) are the only two runners in this field to have made just one trip to the Winner's Circle in their career.

Global Event moves up in class after getting his picture taken last time out; and while I'm generally suspicious of early speed holding up as a runner rises in the class ranks, Global Event just seems to be so much quicker than the rest of his rivals today that it's difficult not to foresee him winning in gate to wire fashion.

Undeniable U is getting some much needed class relief here.  Junior G Man should improve with the move back to the main track.  Architop was victorious at this level two starts back, albeit for different connections.  Journey to Run looks to be the one that will be running best late.

RACE 7 - The Alcatraz $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 More Power to Him (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Harvest a Storm (ML 8-1)
# 2 Grecian Fire (ML 7-2)
# 7 Anyportinastorm (ML 2-1)

C's

None

More Power to Him and Grecian Fire exit the $100k Silky Sullivan, where they were both outclassed.  Expect each of them to move up against a softer field today.

Harvest a Storm is the only runner in this field to have actually won on the grass.  Anyportinastorm is stretching out to a mile for the first time; but that's somewhat misleading, as Anyportinastorm did charge down the two turn Santa Anita Hill in the $75k Baffle back in February.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Simmy's Temple (GB) (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 4 Eccentric Spinster (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Fiery Lady (ML 5-1)
# 3 Smiling Ann (ML 10-1)
# 6 Sheeza Sassy Girl (ML 6-1)

Simmy's Temple (GB) looks best here, though the rail draw could prove problematic for this late runner.  Eccentric Spinster and Fiery Lady are two that are trying winners for the first time after graduating by as many as they wanted to last time out.  I give the edge to Eccentric Spinster as she appears to be the quicker of the two; indeed, Eccentric Spinster may be the quickest in this field.

Smiling Ann should improve with the return to the main track.  Sheeza Sassy Girl may get the jump on Simmy's Temple late thanks to the outside draw.

RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Satin Ruler (ML 9-2)
# 6 If Ur Not Early (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 3 Shoshoni Storm (ML 5-2)
# 4 Lookin' for Fame (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Compadre Sam (ML 20-1)
# 5 Academic Code (ML 4-1)

Satin Ruler and If Ur Not Early appear to be the quickest here.  Shoshoni Storm took the Show at this class level last time out, and may appreciate the cutback in distance.  Lookin' for Fame goes first time for the barn of Steve Sherman, who tends to do well with such.

Compadre Sam drops in class while going third off the year long layoff.  Academic Code could improve with the barn change.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 1 with 2,6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,4 with 2,3,4,6 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1 with 2,6 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2,3,6 with 2,6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1 with 1,5 $1.00

Total: $71.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:48 EDT / 3:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 1 Nahem (Final Odds 5.60) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Johnny Reb (3.30) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Oil (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Golden Poppy - # 6 Lady Valeur (Ire) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 J C's Nightcap (12.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Unusual Taste (2.50) - "A" Selection

I thought enough of Johnny Reb's chances in the second leg to use him in my play; but I didn't think enough of him to put him on the big ticket.  So Johnny Reb wiring the field in Race 5, crossing under the wire a length in front of "A" Selection # 5 Nightime Olympics (2.10), was the difference Saturday between collecting or contributing; because it's not enough to have all the winners on your tickets; you have to have them all on the same ticket if you want to get paid.

So I ended up with five of the six winners on my big ticket; which, as you all already know, pays just as much as if I had none of the six winners on my big ticket.  But you really can't be too hard on yourself for missing it on a day when everyone else missed it too.

Well, almost everyone else.

Oh well; onto the next race.

And, yes, the jackpot got scooped Saturday, as the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  1 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 9 / 5  pays out $218,795.84 for a twenty cent wager to a single winning ticket holder.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

The Golden Poppy, scheduled to be run on some California grass, is Saturday's featured race at Golden Gate; and, spoiler alert, that's where my big ticket single resides.  So if I'm right about that one, well, then I just have to be right about the other five as well, and then I can collect.  Anyway, let's get to it, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 4 - Clm $6.25k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Curly Boy (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Nahem (ML 8-1)
# 5 Star Express (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Giant Mark (ML 9-2)
# 3 Invertigo (ML 4-1)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 9-2)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since April 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have come in either this month or last (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record, # 2 Giant Mark (ML 9-2), # 3 Invertigo (ML 4-1), and # 5 Star Express (ML 3-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.

Curly Boy returns from an extended leave after having defeated classier stock (this claiming price but with no restrictions) in his more recent starts.  Nahem looks to be speed on the rail and could win this one leading from gate to wire.

Star Express finished in the Exacta in six of his last seven races; but all those starts were for Trainer John Martin, from whom Star Express was claimed last time out; so it's fair to wonder how Star Express will perform for his new barn.  Giant Mark looks like the one that will be running best late if Curly Boy doesn't fire.

Invertigo is on the ticket because everyone else in this field is.  Volkonsky was within a length of the winner at the wire the last time that he competed on this synthetic main track.

RACE 5 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Nightime Olympics (ML 5-2)
# 7 Letithappen (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Johnny Reb (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 6 Sir Vronski (ML 2-1)

Nightime Olympics and Letithappen have won two of their last three starts, and were within a length of the winner at the wire in their respective loss in that sequence.  Johnny Reb has done well in the past over this turf course, and may have needed that last race off the layoff.

RACE 6 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Luck Lasts (ML 2-1)
# 4 Oil (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Merle (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Luck Lasts was victorious at this approximate class level last time out (lower claiming price but no restrictions) and will be going first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.  Oil took the Place at this class level last time out behind next out winner Nightime Olympics (who is running again today, in Race 5).  Merle looks to be the one that will be running best late in a field that features a lot of early speed.

RACE 7 - (F) The Golden Poppy $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Blushing Bug (ML 30-1)
# 8 Dreamarcher (ML 3-1)
# 10 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Street Surrender (ML 8-1)

Lady Valeur (Ire) was a stakes winner the last time that she shipped in here from downstate, albeit over the main synthetic track.  Lady Valeur appears to have a clear class advantage over the rest of this field.

Blushing Bug took a big step forward last time out, and could improve on that effort with the surface switch.  Dreamarcher and Peach Cove (NZ) are a pair that could improve with the cutback in distance.   Street Surrender enters this event with a three race winning streak, and may be able to work out a nice stalking trip, even with the far outside draw.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Regal Born (ML 3-1)
# 6 On Trust (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 River House (ML 8-1)
# 7 Cut (ML 4-1)
# 9 J C's Nightcap (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Elegant Tanner (No Line), who is slated to run in Race 4 on Sunday.  Scratch also # 3 The Perfect Square (ML 20-1) and # 4 Skidoo (ML 20-1)

Regal Born should be the fastest early, especially with the scratch of Skidoo.  On Trust ran well in his debut last time out, once he figured out that there was a race going on and he was in it.

River House is a first time starter sired by Many Rivers, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Cut, shipping in from downstate, had a nice work over this main track last Saturday.  J C's Nightcap took the Place against older last time out.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Unusual Taste (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 4 Southern Freedom (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Anythingscookin (ML 7-2)
# 3 Unusually Green (ML 5-1)

Unusual Taste was victorious at this class level last time out.  Southern Freedom took the Show against classier competition (albeit on the main track) last time out.

Anythingscookin was victorious at this class level the last time that he competed over this turf course.  Unusually Green seems to fit well at this class level.

OK, that's the analysis.  While this is a jackpot wager, I won't be putting all my selections on one ticket.  While I still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of my life, budgetary constraints must be respected.  I think it's also safe to presume that my "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so I should be safe in pressing those up.  So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,4,5 with 5,7 with 3,4,5 with 6 with 2,5,6,7,9 with 4,5 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,3,6 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $4.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 3 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 5 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 3,8,10,11 with 5,6 with 5 $6.40
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 3,4 with 6 with 5,6 with 2,3 $3.20

Total: $59.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:45 EDT / 2:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 1 My Discretion (Final Odds 2.80) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Motutapo (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Mon Petite (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Fort Cady (5.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Ted Oliver (19.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 1 It Girl (2.30) - "A" Selection

Getting "A" Selections home in half the legs may not be half bad, but it sure ain't good.  We completely whiffed on Fort Cady, whose prior proficiency at today's distance coupled with his working the "two sprints to a route" angle should have warranted him stronger consideration.  We also completely whiffed on Ted Oliver; but, truth be told, if I had to do it all over again, I'd probably still leave him off our tickets; as Ted Oliver's win seemed to owe a great deal more to # 2 Synnin (3.20) getting stuck in traffic late rather than to his own ability.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  1 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $2,584.40 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

With the first leg of this year's Triple Crown in the books, we return our focus back to our usual base of operations on the West Coast.  So let's get to it, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 4 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Solomon Bay (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Midnight Destiny (ML 9-2)
# 3 Fly Lexis Fly (ML 5-2)
# 4 Pepper Crown (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 My Discretion (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fair Advantage (ML 8-1)

Solomon Bay goes for a cheaper price than in his two prior starts where he took the Place; but you really can't call it a class drop, as he'll be facing some of the same today as he did in those two contests.  Midnight Destiny has been closing well in his recent one turn races.  The surface switch may allow Pepper Crown to finally get past Solomon Bay before the wire.

Fly Lexus Fly should probably be racing on a real dirt track somewhere; however, Fly Lexus Fly is capable at this level on the grass.  My Discretion will try to be the pace on the rail; but he may not be as quick as Solomon Bay, and could get caught in traffic in the stretch.  Fair Advantage is on the ticket because everyone else in this field is.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Motutapu (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Spanish Doll (ML 2-1)
# 4 Prophetinparadise (ML 6-1)

Montutapu has certainly shown an affinity for this main track, winning twice since shipping in from downstate.  Spanish Doll should be the one running best late.  There is no good reason why Prophetinparadise shouldn't lead this field from gate to wire.  However, you could have made that same statement about several of Prophetinparadise's more recent races, where she has run out of gas before the wire.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Mon Petite (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Elegant Bel (ML 4-1)
# 7 Charming Starlet (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Mon Petite, Elegant Bel, and Charming Starlet all seem to be petty evenly matched, be the surface turf or synthetic; so this one in my opinion is probably going to come down to pace.  With # 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 5-1) in the field, Elegant Bel will have some competition on the front end early; but there may not be enough pace for Charming Starlet to close into; so I'm giving the edge to Mon Petite, who should get first run on the leaders.  But again, these three appear to be quite evenly matched, so it could just be a matter of which one is on their game today.

RACE 7 - Clm $3.2k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Amp and Adrenalin (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 7 The Sandman (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Lamaan (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 4 Mr. Cartagena (ML 5-2)

Amp and Adrenalin was victorious last time out at this approximate class level (higher claiming price in that contest, but with conditions); Trainer Bill Delia tends to do well when bringing his winners back.  The Sandman is making a huge class drop; but The Sandman really hasn't shown much since leaving the barn of Trainer Larry Jones back east.  Lamaan could be the one running best late.

RACE 8 - Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Synnin (ML 3-1)
# 7 Kronwall (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Olympic Jumble (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances in California, this contest has no lifetime win restrictions for entry.  So any runner that has starter for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Synnin was victorious at this class level last time out, crossing the wire over three lengths in front of Kronwall, who took the Show; however, the change of surface and the reduction in real estate could work in Kronwall's favor today.  Olympic Jumble found the Winner's Circle last time out after a seven month vacation; but he'll need to improve off that effort to catch the top two contenders.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $6.25k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 It Girl (ML 9-5)
# 9 C J Knows Best (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Peppered Gold (ML 5-1)
# 4 Dancing Lindsay (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 5 Princess Leia (ML 8-1)

It Girl took the Place at this class level last time out.  C J Knows Best drops in class after taking the Show against more expensive last time out.  Peppered Gold looks to be the quickest in this field.  Dancing Lindsay took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket.  While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected.  I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up.  So with all that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 6 with 3 with 2 with 1 with 2,7 with 1,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 2,3,4,6 with 3 with 1,2,7 with 1,7 with 2,5,7 with 1,3,4,9 $57.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 1,5 with 3 with 2 with 1 with 2,7 with 1,9 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 6 with 1,4 with 2 with 1 with 2,7 with 1,9 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 6 with 3 with 2 with 3 with 2,7 with 1,9 $0.80

Total: $65.60

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:51 EDT / 2:51 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/6/17 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 6 Arklow (Final Odds 15.00) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Churchill Downs - # 9 Limousine Liberal (13.20) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 2 Divisidero (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 5 Always Dreaming (4.70*) - "B" Selection

So after all the talk about this being a wide open Kentucky Derby (including from Your's Truly) the Post Time Favorite wins for the fifth year in a row.  Congrats to the connections of Always Dreaming; especially to former NYRA track announcer Tom Durkin, who is part of the Always Dreaming ownership group, and perhaps the greatest ambassador that the sport of horse racing has.  It's hard to be too upset when something this good happens to someone that nice; so as regards our play, we'll just shrug our shoulders and say,

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  6 / 9 / 2 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $3,441.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo