Race 6 - # 8 Overcomer (Final Odds 13.40) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Mongolian Shopper (9.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Ynez - # 8 Midnight Bisou (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Red Livy (Ire) (1.30*) - "A" Selection
When you completely whiff on half the sequence, you know it wasn't a good day. With the benefit of twenty / twenty hindsight, a decent case could be made to have included Overcomer in my play based on the class drop. On the other hand, Mongolian Shopper is a much harder find, as typically those whose success comes primarily from one turn sprints tend to run out of gas before the wire when charging down the Santa Anita hill. But Mongolian Shopper had no problems with stamina Sunday, leading the field down the hill and pulling away in the stretch to win the second leg.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 2 / 8 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $650.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 7, 2018
1/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 2 Santa Ynez is Sunday's featured race in Arcadia, as sophomore fillies take some early steps on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. I'll be taking a look at the Santa Ynez below as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $10k B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Rim Ditch (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 5-2)
# 6 Winning Causeway (ML 6-1)
C's
# 12 Indavidualist (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Chin Tu (ML 50-1) and # 11 Proud Zoning (ML 50-1)
This contest is restricted to trainers with twenty or fewer horses in their care in California. So don't think this is for small trainers only; as this race is also conditioned to draw shippers from trainers who have large stables outside of the state of California.
This is one of the race conditions that The Stronach Group, the owners of Santa Anita Park (and Golden Gate Fields, and Gulfstream Park, and, well, others) said that they were bringing to the track in an effort to increase the horse racing population in the state. Will it serve that purpose? Well, I'll let time be the judge of that. For now, speaking as a horse player, I see a race with a full competitive field; and I'm all for that.
Airfoil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six contests, all at this approximate class level. Rim Ditch may find six furlongs to be a bridge too far; but if Rim Ditch can hold on 'til the wire, he just might get his picture taken today. Also note that Rim Ditch ran one of his best races in quite some time last time out, while also running for the first time in quite some time without front leg wraps. Perhaps that's just a coincidence; perhaps not.
Lewys Vaporizer is getting significant class relief here, and should be an early pace presence, if not indeed the leader of the pack. Winning Causeway is two-for-six lifetime on the Turf and one-for-sixteen lifetime elsewhere; since today's contest is elsewhere, it would appear that Winning Causeway is misplaced. But Winning Causeway has proven to be competitive on the dirt at this class level, and is therefore worthy of consideration. Indavidualist has run well over this main track in the past.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
# 5 Snow Chief (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Allsquare (ML 8-1)
# 7 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Del Mar Ann (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 6 - Clm $10k B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Rim Ditch (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 5-2)
# 6 Winning Causeway (ML 6-1)
C's
# 12 Indavidualist (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Chin Tu (ML 50-1) and # 11 Proud Zoning (ML 50-1)
This contest is restricted to trainers with twenty or fewer horses in their care in California. So don't think this is for small trainers only; as this race is also conditioned to draw shippers from trainers who have large stables outside of the state of California.
This is one of the race conditions that The Stronach Group, the owners of Santa Anita Park (and Golden Gate Fields, and Gulfstream Park, and, well, others) said that they were bringing to the track in an effort to increase the horse racing population in the state. Will it serve that purpose? Well, I'll let time be the judge of that. For now, speaking as a horse player, I see a race with a full competitive field; and I'm all for that.
Airfoil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six contests, all at this approximate class level. Rim Ditch may find six furlongs to be a bridge too far; but if Rim Ditch can hold on 'til the wire, he just might get his picture taken today. Also note that Rim Ditch ran one of his best races in quite some time last time out, while also running for the first time in quite some time without front leg wraps. Perhaps that's just a coincidence; perhaps not.
Lewys Vaporizer is getting significant class relief here, and should be an early pace presence, if not indeed the leader of the pack. Winning Causeway is two-for-six lifetime on the Turf and one-for-sixteen lifetime elsewhere; since today's contest is elsewhere, it would appear that Winning Causeway is misplaced. But Winning Causeway has proven to be competitive on the dirt at this class level, and is therefore worthy of consideration. Indavidualist has run well over this main track in the past.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
# 5 Snow Chief (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Allsquare (ML 8-1)
# 7 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Del Mar Ann (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Girl Downstairs fits well here on class; now it's just a question as to how she'll handle the hill. Snow Chief (Ire) took the Show charging down the hill last time out against classier competition.
Allsquare took the Place against less expensive stock charging down the hill last time out. Peace Cove (NZ) goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such. Del Mar Ann has run well in the past charging down the hill.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Ynez (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 War Heroine (ML 4-1)
# 8 Midnight Bisou (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Yesterday's News (ML 8-1)
# 7 Win the War (ML 8-1)
# 7 Win the War (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Artistic Diva (ML 6-1)
War Heroine made it look easy in her debut last time out, winning by as many as she wanted. Midnight Bisou has twice lost to Dream Tree by a nose, and moves up just by virtue of not having to face that rival again today.
Yesterday's News took the Place behind Dream Tree in the Grade 1 Starlet last time out. Win the War ships in from north of the border for Trainer Make Casse. If Win the War can transfer her synthetic form to real dirt, then she can be a real contender here.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Red Livy (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Lookinforadanger (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liar's Smoker (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Rosie My Rosie (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fruity (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Sturdy One (ML 5-1). Bring in # 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list; but don't bring in # 13 Miss Boom Boom (ML 9-2) nor # 14 Kennedie Sky (ML 20-1), as they are both scratched.
Red Livy (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time that she charged down the hill. Lookinforadanger, ambitiously placed last time out, could improve at a more realistic class level for her talent. Liar's Smoker showed good tactical speed last time out, and has been working well for her return off the freshening.
Rosie My Rosie, one-for-fourteen lifetime on the grass, fits well here on class, though this may not be an ideal placing for her. Fruity (Ire) could improve with the return to turf. Gemini Journey took the Show against classier competition the last time that she charged down the hill.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,10 with 1,5,6,7,11 with 5,8 with 1,9,10 $60.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 2,11,12 $6.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
A’s
# 10 Red Livy (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Lookinforadanger (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liar's Smoker (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Rosie My Rosie (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fruity (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Sturdy One (ML 5-1). Bring in # 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list; but don't bring in # 13 Miss Boom Boom (ML 9-2) nor # 14 Kennedie Sky (ML 20-1), as they are both scratched.
Red Livy (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time that she charged down the hill. Lookinforadanger, ambitiously placed last time out, could improve at a more realistic class level for her talent. Liar's Smoker showed good tactical speed last time out, and has been working well for her return off the freshening.
Rosie My Rosie, one-for-fourteen lifetime on the grass, fits well here on class, though this may not be an ideal placing for her. Fruity (Ire) could improve with the return to turf. Gemini Journey took the Show against classier competition the last time that she charged down the hill.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,10 with 1,5,6,7,11 with 5,8 with 1,9,10 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 2,11,12 $6.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 6, 2018
1/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Sapphire Kid (Final Odds 5.40) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Pica (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Instant Reflex (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Pica, the winner of the third leg, wasn't too many dollars away from being the public's top choice in that contest. So considering Saturday's sequence very nearly contained three Post Time Favorites, the fact that it paid as well as it did is something for which to be grateful. Of course, it's also evidence that the sequence was perhaps not nearly as difficult as I had originally imagined; but no need to go into that.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Beau Square (9.20) - $458.00 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Cash Prize (5.70) - $412.10 Finish: 5th
# 7 Phantom Proton (10.90) - $857.15 Finish: 9th
# 8 C. C. Zip (6.60) - $383.50 Finish: 11th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 10 which paid $145.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $74.40 on my initial $71.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.04-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Pica (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Instant Reflex (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Pica, the winner of the third leg, wasn't too many dollars away from being the public's top choice in that contest. So considering Saturday's sequence very nearly contained three Post Time Favorites, the fact that it paid as well as it did is something for which to be grateful. Of course, it's also evidence that the sequence was perhaps not nearly as difficult as I had originally imagined; but no need to go into that.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Beau Square (9.20) - $458.00 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Cash Prize (5.70) - $412.10 Finish: 5th
# 7 Phantom Proton (10.90) - $857.15 Finish: 9th
# 8 C. C. Zip (6.60) - $383.50 Finish: 11th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 10 which paid $145.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $74.40 on my initial $71.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.04-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Wintry weather continues to cause havoc on North American thoroughbred racing; but in Southern California the track is Fast and the turf is Firm, so that's where I'll be keeping my action this weekend. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Karmic Affinity (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 3 Dee Way to Go (ML 15-1)
# 6 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sapphire Kid (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Impecunious (ML 7-2)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 4-1)
While neither her pedigree nor her connections suggest that Karmic Affinity will be firing at first asking, Karmic Affinity has been working lights out for her debut here. Of course, you always have to be cautious when using a first time starter in a Maiden Claiming contest, especially one that was purchased at auction for more than the tag she that has on her head today. After all, it's fair to reason, if Karmic Affinity is so good, why are her connections so willing to let her go at a loss without having ever seen her compete? But with that said, I think the quality of this field suggests that a first time runner should do well; and Karmic Affinity certainly looks ready to roll.
Dee Way to Go, Whatyouciswhatuget, and Sapphire Kid all ran well this past Summer before being shut down. If any of the three can pick up where they left off before going on the shelf, then they can win here.
Impecunious, one of several here running first time for a tag, could improve with the move to real dirt. Super Patriot, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to have done her best racing on the turf going around two turns (and, yes, charging down the Santa Anita hill involves going around two turns), so she may not be a good fit in a dirt sprint; but a Baffert runner dropping in for a tag for the first time always deserves at least some consideration.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Isotherm (ML 7-2)
# 7 He Will (ML 4-1)
# 9 Free Rose (ML 10-1)
Itsinthepost (Fr) can win from anywhere, and should improve off the freshening. Flamboyant (Fr), winner of this event back in 2016, seems to be rounding nicely into form.
Isotherm won the Grade 2 San Marcos over this turf course the last time that he competed on the lawn. He Will could improve with the increase in real estate. Free Rose should be prominent early, and might get a nice stalking trip.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scathing (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 8 Pica (ML 7-2)
# 9 Devil's Beauty (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Kiss My Lulu (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sea Myrtle (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pashalitsa (ML 8-1)
Scathing was a clear winner last time out, and has run well in the past over this main track. Devil's Beauty and Pica were separated by just a length at the wire last time out with a higher price tag on their respective heads.
Kiss My Lulu could improve with the return to real dirt. Sea Myrtle could move up with the return to one turn racing. Pashalitsa has run well in the past when making the seven furlong trip.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Cash Prize (ML 6-1)
# 10 Instant Reflex (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Beau Square (ML 5-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 15-1)
# 8 C. C. Zip (ML 6-1)
C's
# 9 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rooms (ML 20-1)
# 12 Salten Sapity (ML 8-1)
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Karmic Affinity (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 3 Dee Way to Go (ML 15-1)
# 6 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sapphire Kid (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Impecunious (ML 7-2)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 4-1)
While neither her pedigree nor her connections suggest that Karmic Affinity will be firing at first asking, Karmic Affinity has been working lights out for her debut here. Of course, you always have to be cautious when using a first time starter in a Maiden Claiming contest, especially one that was purchased at auction for more than the tag she that has on her head today. After all, it's fair to reason, if Karmic Affinity is so good, why are her connections so willing to let her go at a loss without having ever seen her compete? But with that said, I think the quality of this field suggests that a first time runner should do well; and Karmic Affinity certainly looks ready to roll.
Dee Way to Go, Whatyouciswhatuget, and Sapphire Kid all ran well this past Summer before being shut down. If any of the three can pick up where they left off before going on the shelf, then they can win here.
Impecunious, one of several here running first time for a tag, could improve with the move to real dirt. Super Patriot, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to have done her best racing on the turf going around two turns (and, yes, charging down the Santa Anita hill involves going around two turns), so she may not be a good fit in a dirt sprint; but a Baffert runner dropping in for a tag for the first time always deserves at least some consideration.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Isotherm (ML 7-2)
# 7 He Will (ML 4-1)
# 9 Free Rose (ML 10-1)
Itsinthepost (Fr) can win from anywhere, and should improve off the freshening. Flamboyant (Fr), winner of this event back in 2016, seems to be rounding nicely into form.
Isotherm won the Grade 2 San Marcos over this turf course the last time that he competed on the lawn. He Will could improve with the increase in real estate. Free Rose should be prominent early, and might get a nice stalking trip.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scathing (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 8 Pica (ML 7-2)
# 9 Devil's Beauty (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Kiss My Lulu (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sea Myrtle (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pashalitsa (ML 8-1)
Scathing was a clear winner last time out, and has run well in the past over this main track. Devil's Beauty and Pica were separated by just a length at the wire last time out with a higher price tag on their respective heads.
Kiss My Lulu could improve with the return to real dirt. Sea Myrtle could move up with the return to one turn racing. Pashalitsa has run well in the past when making the seven furlong trip.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Cash Prize (ML 6-1)
# 10 Instant Reflex (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Beau Square (ML 5-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 15-1)
# 8 C. C. Zip (ML 6-1)
C's
# 9 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rooms (ML 20-1)
# 12 Salten Sapity (ML 8-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Mongolian Shopper (ML 4-1) and # 14 Tweeting (ML 8-1)
Cash Prize has proven competitive at this class level, and has run well in the past charging down the hill. Instant Relex took the Show in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy two starts back.
Beau Square took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit on the flats at Del Mar. Phantom Proton could improve off the freshening. C. C. Zip was victorious in her only prior try charging down the hill.
Siberian Iris (Ire) and Rooms each try the hill for the first time, both having done well previously on the flats. Salten Sapity graduated over this turf course two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8,11 with 1,8 with 4,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,10 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 6,7,9 with 4 with 6,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 1,2,7 with 6,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 9,11,12 $1.50
Total: $71.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, January 1, 2018
1/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Ax Man (Final Odds 1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Joe Hernandez - # 2 Pee Wee Reese (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Utah Ute (9.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Shazara (20.70) - No Selection
For a few moments there, it looked like 2018 was going to be kicked off on a winning note; but # 8 How About Zero (2.10*) ran out of gas just a bit too soon, and got nipped on the line in the final leg by # 1 Shazara.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 4 Antonina (Per) (29.40) - $ 1,252.45 Finish: 10th
# 6 Sasini (GB) (7.80) - $368.15 Finish: 8th
# 7 Ms Wakaya (20.70) - $909.10 Finish: 5th
# 8 How About Zero (2.10*) - $141.35 Finish: 2nd
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (2.70) - $169.05 Finish: 4th
# 10 Be Mine (3.60) - $183.85 Finish: 6th
Had How About Zero held on to win, the above payout would have been trebled, as I would have cashed to "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 2 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1,093.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Joe Hernandez - # 2 Pee Wee Reese (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Utah Ute (9.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Shazara (20.70) - No Selection
For a few moments there, it looked like 2018 was going to be kicked off on a winning note; but # 8 How About Zero (2.10*) ran out of gas just a bit too soon, and got nipped on the line in the final leg by # 1 Shazara.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 4 Antonina (Per) (29.40) - $ 1,252.45 Finish: 10th
# 6 Sasini (GB) (7.80) - $368.15 Finish: 8th
# 7 Ms Wakaya (20.70) - $909.10 Finish: 5th
# 8 How About Zero (2.10*) - $141.35 Finish: 2nd
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (2.70) - $169.05 Finish: 4th
# 10 Be Mine (3.60) - $183.85 Finish: 6th
Had How About Zero held on to win, the above payout would have been trebled, as I would have cashed to "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 2 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1,093.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You're doing things you've never done before, and more importantly, you're doing something." - Neil Gaiman
Happy New Year everyone; and Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. While the year is beginning the weekend is ending; and I'll be finishing up where I began, at Santa Anita. The featured race Monday in Arcadia is the $75k Joe Hernandez, a charge down the hill for runners four years old and upward. I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ax Man (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Shanghai Billy (ML 3-1)
# 8 More Honor (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Italian (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elevated Knight (ML 8-1)
Ax Man, a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, must have an interesting backstory; at least, that's how it seems looking at his workout history. Ax Man was working well at Los Alamitos this Summer when he was shut down after a fine July 7 workout. Ax Man then goes back on the work tab at Los Al in November, where he's again working well; which, well, is what you would expect from a two year old Baffert trainee.
So why didn't Ax Man make his debut at Los Al? Well, and I'm just guessing here, I would say something happened either during or after that November 24 workout. Notice that, even though the Los Al thoroughbred meet is still in progress, Ax Man gets moved to Santa Anita; and his next work, on December 2, his first at Santa Anita, is, to be kind, not good. Maybe they went easy on him because they were concerned that he may have re-injured himself; or maybe he just had to get something that wasn't right out of his system. But it does show why Ax Man didn't debut during the Los Al meet in December.
After that December 2 "work", things appear to get serious; as we see Ax Man back on the track at Santa Anita just five days later with a bullet work; and then, the very next day (!) Ax Man is working out again, this time from the gate. In an era where workouts tend to be very evenly spaced, every seven days, that's some old school stuff Baffert was laying on this juvenile.
So with all that, I have to presume that Ax Man is ready to roll in his debut Monday; which is the primary reason why I'll be using him as a big ticket single. The other reason why Ax Man gets singled on the big ticket is because, in my opinion, there's no clear second choice behind Ax Man in this field; so it would either be use one or use five (or more).
Shanghai Billy, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, is the only experienced runner that I'll be using in my play in this leg. The other three "C" Selections are first time starters who can be expected to do well based upon breeding and/or connections. But in my opinion this race goes through Ax Man; and while I expect Ax Man to be a very short price, I just don't see the point of expanding the cost of this play in an effort to beat him.
RACE 7 - The Joe Hernandez $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 3-1)
# 8 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
Happy New Year everyone; and Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. While the year is beginning the weekend is ending; and I'll be finishing up where I began, at Santa Anita. The featured race Monday in Arcadia is the $75k Joe Hernandez, a charge down the hill for runners four years old and upward. I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ax Man (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Shanghai Billy (ML 3-1)
# 8 More Honor (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Italian (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elevated Knight (ML 8-1)
Ax Man, a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, must have an interesting backstory; at least, that's how it seems looking at his workout history. Ax Man was working well at Los Alamitos this Summer when he was shut down after a fine July 7 workout. Ax Man then goes back on the work tab at Los Al in November, where he's again working well; which, well, is what you would expect from a two year old Baffert trainee.
So why didn't Ax Man make his debut at Los Al? Well, and I'm just guessing here, I would say something happened either during or after that November 24 workout. Notice that, even though the Los Al thoroughbred meet is still in progress, Ax Man gets moved to Santa Anita; and his next work, on December 2, his first at Santa Anita, is, to be kind, not good. Maybe they went easy on him because they were concerned that he may have re-injured himself; or maybe he just had to get something that wasn't right out of his system. But it does show why Ax Man didn't debut during the Los Al meet in December.
After that December 2 "work", things appear to get serious; as we see Ax Man back on the track at Santa Anita just five days later with a bullet work; and then, the very next day (!) Ax Man is working out again, this time from the gate. In an era where workouts tend to be very evenly spaced, every seven days, that's some old school stuff Baffert was laying on this juvenile.
So with all that, I have to presume that Ax Man is ready to roll in his debut Monday; which is the primary reason why I'll be using him as a big ticket single. The other reason why Ax Man gets singled on the big ticket is because, in my opinion, there's no clear second choice behind Ax Man in this field; so it would either be use one or use five (or more).
Shanghai Billy, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, is the only experienced runner that I'll be using in my play in this leg. The other three "C" Selections are first time starters who can be expected to do well based upon breeding and/or connections. But in my opinion this race goes through Ax Man; and while I expect Ax Man to be a very short price, I just don't see the point of expanding the cost of this play in an effort to beat him.
RACE 7 - The Joe Hernandez $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 3-1)
# 8 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Mr. Roary (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tribalist (ML 9-2)
# 7 Om (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tribalist (ML 9-2)
# 7 Om (ML 7-2)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Smokey Image (ML 15-1), #12 Sycamore Lane (ML 15-1), and #13 Conquest Daddyo (ML 20-1)
Pee Wee Reese, winner of the Grade 2 American two starts back, was a winner in his only prior try charging down the Santa Anita hill. Richard's Boy, Place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, has down well in the past competing down the hill. The "C" Selections, Mr. Roary, Tribalist, and Om, filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Eddie D over this course back in September.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - OC 40k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
# 7 Royal Bar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1)
# 9 Treasure Hunter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Royal Bar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1)
# 9 Treasure Hunter (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)
# 12 For Him (ML 8-1)
This contest is an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, and it's written as follows: first requirement is the three year old must have started for a claiming price of $50k or less. That's the Starter Allowance provision. After that hurdle is cleared, it's an N2L Optional Claimer; if your horse has just one victory, then it runs without fear of being claimed. More than one lifetime Win, and he runs with a $40k price tag on his head. For the record, # 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1), # 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1), and # 11 Ima Take Charge (ML 8-1) are the three runners in this contest with more than one visit to the Winner's Circle, and therefore eligible to be claimed.
Utah Ute goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such. Treasure Hunter, Royal Trump, and Royal Bar filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta in an OC 50k at Del Mar back in November.
Get Em Up Scout may be outclassed here; but I think Get Em Up Scout ran well enough last time out to merit strong consideration here. Zippy Groom graduated over this main track last time out with ease, albeit while going around two turns. For Him could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 How About Zero (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Antonia (Per) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sasini (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ms Wakaya (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Be Mine (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Bombilate (ML 3-1), # 12 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 6-1), # 13 Hacktivism (ML 8-1), and # 14 Achira (ML 12-1)
How About Zero gets some much needed class relief. Antonia (Per) could benefit greatly from the cutback in distance. Sasini (GB) seems a notch below many here; but Sasini could find herself with a nice trip, getting first run at the leaders turning for home. Ms Wakaya was a clear winner the last time that she competed on the lawn.
The Tulip (Ire) is making her first North American start, and she seems well meant here. Be Mine has disappointed three times in her seven race career as the Post Time Favorite; not exactly a stellar recommendation, but the talent to win at this level is certainly there.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 1,6,7,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,9,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,8,9,10 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,5,7 with 6 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 3,12 with 8 $2.00
Total: $39.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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