7/7/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 7 Daddysprize (Final Odds 0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 3 Belligerent (3.10) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Everett Nevin - # 7 Luck's Royal Flush (9.70) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Uncle Hal (3.40) - "B" Selection

Among the many features that handicapping shares with chess is that, even when you win, you could have done better.  Saturday, I could have done much better.

My initial inclination when putting my play together was to single Daddysprize on the big ticket ("All A and All B Selections") in the opening leg.  Instead, I chose to hedge and include # 3 La Waun (5.40) as well.  La Waun took the Show.

# 9 Excentra (11.20) in the second leg, originally intended to be a backup "C" Selection, was a late addition to the big ticket.  I thought Excentra could return to the form that she showed two starts back.  Instead Excentra did very little running, and finished 7th.

# 1 Ride Into the Sky (7.10) in the nightcap was another late addition to the big ticket.  This one was a tough call, for while Ride Into the Sky was dropping in for the lowest claiming price of his career, Ride Into the Sky really hadn't shown much in his four races since graduating back in April.  As it turned out Ride Into the Sky, who had broken well in each of his last three starts against more expensive stock, had no speed Saturday and finished fourth.

Of course, it's always going to be much easier to know which horses should be tossed after the race is run than it is prior to them crossing under the wire.  But the point is that, even when you win, there are still lessons to be learned.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Ride Into the Sky (7.10) - $331.40 Finish: 4th

# 2 Sierra Dance (12.70) - $846.15 Finish: 6th

# 5 Zucchini (10.40) - $337.40 Finish: 3rd

# 7 Jimmythisnjimthat (2.10) - $107.80 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 3 / 7 / 4  which paid $220.90 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $111.90 on my initial $109 investment, or approximate odds of 1.03-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/7/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

The $100k Everett Nevin for Cal breds juveniles is Saturday's featured race at the Alameda County Fairgrounds.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Daddysprize (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 3 La Waun (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Rewired (ML 10-1)

# 4 Irish Sky (ML 4-1)

# 6 Royal Charm (ML 6-1)

Daddysprize and La Waun were last out winners at this class level last time out.  I give the edge today to Daddysprize, as I think La Waun will be hard pressed to stay up on the pace today.

Rewired took the Show behind Daddysprize two starts back.  Irish Sky could improve getting off the grass.  Royal Charm could be the one running best late.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Say Your Grace (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Blazin On By (ML 6-1)

# 3 Belligerent (ML 3-1)

# 4 Ruled by Girls (ML 2-1)
# 9 Excentra (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Storming Reese (ML 12-1)

Say Your Grace took the Place at this class level last time out, and might be quickest here.  Belligerent and Blazin On By filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.

Ruled by Girls goes first time for the barn of Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such.    Excentra took the Place against a next out winner at this class level two starts back.  Storming Reese may have needed one over the track.

RACE 8 - [S] The Everett Nevin $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Cozze Kid (ML 3-1)
# 5 Mr Paytience (ML 2-1)

B's

# 3 Carnivorous (ML 4-1)

# 7 Luck's Royal Flush (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Leadville (ML 12-1)

# 6 Call Waiting (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Amity Harbor (ML 15-1)

Cozze Kid beat the boys in her debut last time out, and there's no reason why she can't do it again today.  Mr Paytience won by as many as he wanted for Trainer Doug O'Neill in his debut last time out.

Carnivorous and Luck's Royal Flush were just a neck apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta back in May at Santa Anita.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.  These are juveniles, and it's only July; so they all have a lot of growing up to do, and some of them may do it during the running of this race.

RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Jimmythisnjimthat (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Ride Into the Sky (ML 8-1)

# 2 Sierra Dance (ML 10-1)
# 4 Uncle Hal (ML 6-1)
# 5 Zucchini (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Tiz Proof (ML 15-1)

# 6 Stormin G A (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 8 Jacks Masterpiece (ML 5-2)

Jimmythisnjimthat and Ride Into the Sky are two taking a tumble down the class ladder.  Sierra Dance, Uncle Hal, and Zucchini all ran well while graduating last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 6 with 1,5 with 7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,3,4,6,9 with 1,3,5,7 with 1,2,4,5,7 $100.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6 with 6 with 1,5 with 7 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 1,5 with 7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6 with 2,6 with 7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6 with 1,5 with 3,6 $2.00

Total: $109.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 6 Special Season (Final Odds 1.10*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Sir Vronski (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Oak Tree Sprint - # 2 Annie's Candy (7.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Acrimonius (2.10*) - "B" Selection

In the featured 8th race, my big ticket single, #3 My Friend Emma (0.80*) crossed under the wire first, well clear of Annie's Candy.  Unfortunately, My Friend Emma did so while riderless, having tossed Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez off his back shortly after the break (fortunately, Gonzalez popped right back up on his feet after the incident, and all indications are horse and rider are okay).  It was just one of those racing luck things that you can't do anything about, other than shrugging your shoulders and saying,

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 1 / 2 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $165.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/4/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. - The Declaration of Independence

Happy Birthday USA!  Here's hoping that all Americans, as well as all freedom-loving people everywhere throughout the world, spend the day enjoying life and liberty while pursuing happiness.  For me, the pursuit of happiness leads me to Wednesday's races at the Alameda County Fairgrounds, where the Oak Tree Sprint is the featured event on the card.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 6 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Night's Watch (Morning Line 8-1)
# 4 Burger and Fries (Fr) (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Capes Hot Rocket (ML 10-1)
# 7 Sojurn (ML 9-2)

C's

# 3 Forever the Chief (ML 12-1)
# 5 At Ease (ML 4-1)
# 6 Special Season (GB) (ML 2-1)

Night's Watch has finished in the Trifecta six of the twelve times that he has raced over a Fast dirt track, and is the only entrant in the field with a victory while competing over real dirt.  Burger and Fries (Fr) was within a length of the winner at the wire last time out over this main track.

Capes Hot Rocket and Sojurn appear on paper to be over matched; but these two are a combined three-for-eleven lifetime, demonstrating an ability to find the Winner's Circle in relatively few tries; unlike many others here that seem to go all out to avoid getting their picture taken.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - Clm $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sir Vronski (ML 8-5)
# 2 Awhitesportscoat (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 4 Awesome Anywhere (ML 5-1)
# 5 Karma King (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Pure Comedy (ML 4-1)

Sir Vronski, winner of half of his eight career starts over a Fast Dirt track, misses by just a length of entering this contest with an eight race winning streak, going back to last Fall.  Awhitesportscoat took the show in the $50k Albany last time out, and could move up with the change of surface.

Awesome Anywhere has finished in the Exacta all three times that he has competed on a Fast dirt track.  Karma King, two lengths back of Sir Vronski at the wire last time out, goes first off the claim for Trainer Samuel Calvario, who tends to do well with such.  Pure Comedy has been a notch below a couple of these of late; perhaps that will change with the surface switch.

RACE 8 - The Oak Tree Sprint $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 My Friend Emma (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Taima the Hawk (ML 8-1)
# 2 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)
# 4 Tribal Storm (ML 7-2)
# 5 Run Away (ML 5-2)

My Friend Emma, winner of The Albany on the turf last time out, has run well in the past over this track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as it's a very small field.

RACE 9 - Md $12.5k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Pepperino (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Gold and Guns (ML 30-1)
# 3 Mon Camo (ML 12-1)
# 6 Acrimonious (ML 9-2)
# 8 Soul Obsession (ML 6-1)
# 10 Kona Breeze (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Scene Enuf (ML 10-1)
# 5 El Nino Fable (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Burn thewhiteflag (ML 8-1) and # 7 Full Flask (ML 8-1)

Pepperino took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back.  Acrimonious, Mon Camo, and Gold and Guns filled out the bottom three rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out.

Full Flask drops in for a tag for the first time.  Soul Obsession took the Place in his debut last time out.  Kona Breeze looks best on paper, but may be camera shy.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 1,2 with 3 with 9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,5 with 3 with 2,3,6,8,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6 with 1,2 with 3 with 9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 3 with 3 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,2 with 3 with 1,5 $4.00

Total: $68.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/1/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 The Spiral Jetter (Final Odds 2.90) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Fullbridled Jet (7.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Touched by Autism (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Desert Express (2.80) - "A" Selection

And that's why you play backup tickets.

Actually, it might be more fitting to categorize today's victory as, "I'd rather be lucky than good."  My big ticket single, # 6 Smiling Ann (2.10*) showed little in the opening leg and finished fifth; while I got my "A" Selection home in the second leg, a leg which had confounded me so much that I went "ALL" on the big ticket.  Go figure.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap (which was the Post Time Favorite due to my other "A" Selection, # 5 Moonlight Blue, being a late scratch):

# 7 Native Chieftain (2.30*) - $289.35 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct very easy to remember Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 2 / 3 / 4  which paid $355.50 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $300.50 on my initial $55 investment, or approximate odds of 5.46-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/1/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Sunday at the Alameda County Fairgrounds; and that's pretty much all I have today by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 6 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Smiling Ann (Morning Line  3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 The Spiral Jetter (ML 7-2)
# 2 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 8-1)
# 3 Hal's Buddy (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reginella (ML 9-2)
# 7 Madam Sophia (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Ragazza Di Vola (ML 6-1)

Smiling Ann won by enough last time out to suggest that she can handle the rise is class.  The Spiral Jetter fits well at this class level, and ran reasonably well last summer on the dirt at Del Mar.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as this field (typical of most first level Allowance races) contains more than a few runners who consistently hit the board at this class level while managing to avoid the Winner's Circle; suggesting that they have the talent to win, but often not the desire.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Fullbridled Jet (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Meet Ya in Ky (ML 15-1)
# 3 A Brides Song (ML 3-1)
# 4 Dayjur Bold (ML 15-1)
# 5 She's an Eagle (ML 5-2)
# 6 American Sheriff (ML 6-1)
# 7 Filina (ML 10-1)
# 8 She Perfect (ML 12-1)
# 9 She's Over the Top (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Fullbridled Jet could be the speed of the speed here.  Also note in the running lines how Fullbridled Jet's early speed has allowed her to be in front closer and closer to the wire in each successive race.  The "B" Selections are everyone else, as I go "ALL" on the big ticket for this leg.

RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Touched by Autism (ML 5-1)
# 5 Kitten's Royal (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Saxon Lord (ML 4-1)
# 6 More Power to Him (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Crazy Prophet (ML 2-1)
# 4 Sunset Dragunn (ML 8-1)

Touched by Autism and Kitten's Royal, the only two last out winners in this field, both ran well enough to suggest that they can repeat.  Note also that Kitten's Royal is a career two-for-two over this track.

Saxon Lord, one-for-two in his career over this track, appears to be in top form.  More Power to Him has run well in the past over a Fast dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Desert Express (ML 9-2)
# 5 Moonlight Blue (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Full Access (ML 6-1)
# 7 Native Chieftain (ML 3-1)
# 8 Manila Mischief (ML 5-1)

Desert Express has run well over Fast dirt tracks in the past, including a Win in his only prior try over this track.  Moonlight Blue goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.

Full Access ran well enough in victory last time out to suggest that he can handle the class rise.  Manila Mischief and Native Chieftain filled out the Exacta last time out while crossing under the wire just a nose apart.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 3,5 with 4,5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6 with ALL with 2,3,5,6 with 4,5 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,7 with 2 with 3,5 with 4,5 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 1,4 with 4,5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 3,5 with 6,7,8 $3.00

Total: $55.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo