Sunday, July 15, 2018

7/15/18 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 5 Dancing Harbor (Final Odds 4.80) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Jens de Ville (4.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Shylock Eddie (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Lucky Outcome (1.20*) - "A" Selection

While having the Post Time Favorite win the nightcap wasn't exactly the lucky outcome that I was hoping for, the fact that the play was salvaged from total defeat by just a neck and a head in the middle two legs means that I have little to complain about (it's worth noting that Dancing Harbor's victory in the opening leg was also by just a neck; but the Place finisher in that contest was backup "C" Selection # 4 Oh Jerry (6.20), so the play would still have cashed even if that result was reversed).

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 3 She's Over the Top (3.00) - $143.85 Finish: 3rd
# 4 Marina Rose (7.80) - $420.10 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Daylur Bold (39.60) - $1,080.30 Finish: 4th
# 8 Quadrillionaire (3.90) - $128.70 Finish: 6th
# 9 Check Six (9.70) - $196.40 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 6 / 6 / 7  which paid $60.45 for a fifty cent wager.  Since my initial investment was $80, I cash at a loss of nineteen dollars and fifty-five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/15/18 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Preview

It's day two of a two day weekend; and, seriously, I have absolutely nothing by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Sacramento.

RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 El Chavo Del Ocho (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Major Implications (ML 2-1)
# 2 Union Rebel (ML 4-1)
# 5 Dancing Harbor (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Cats Surfin (ML 10-1)
# 4 Oh Jerry (ML 8-1)

El Chavo Del Ocho returns after an extended vacation, and goes first time for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with both those angles.  Major Implications and Dancing Harbor were less than a length apart at the wire while filling out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out.

Union Rebel took the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Jens de Ville (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 He's a Tiger (ML 5-2)
# 7 Mesa Jones (ML 4-1)

C's

# 5 Royal Alexei (ML 9-2)

This contest is open to runners three years old and upward which have not won two races in 2018.  It's worth noting that in this field of seven, three of the runners are racing above their conditions.  # 2 On Fire (ML 8-1); # 3 Stocked (ML 6-1); and # 4 Yes I’m Wild (ML 10-1) have won zero races in 2018; meaning that they’re eligible to compete in races for horses which have not won any races in 2018 (for example, Clm $3.2k N1Y).  In fact, Stocked has only one Win in his career, meaning that he’s still eligible to compete in races with a N2L (non-winners of two lifetime) condition.

Now, sometimes things of this nature (having horses race above their conditions) are done by trainers as a favor to the racing secretary in order to get the race to go.  After all, if you take these three runners out of this contest you’re left with a field of four before scratches; which almost certainly means that the race would be dropped from the card.  And, of course, racing above their conditions does not mean that none of those three horses can win.  After all, lightweights have been known to occasionally defeat middleweights.  It’s just that there is rarely a compelling reason to take on a battle where the odds are stacked against you in this manner.

I mention all this to point out one of the reason why some trainers seem to visit the Winner’s Circle so much more frequently than others.  Yes, having better horses is the key component in that equation; but a lot of that is also that trainers with high Winning Percentages tend to put their runners in spots where they have a legitimate chance to compete, rather than needlessly forcing them to swim in the deep end of the pool.

Jens de Ville ran well over the dirt at Pleasanton while winning last time out.  He's a Tiger took the Place at this class level last time out.  Mesa Jones defeated open claimers with a more expensive price tag on their heads two starts back, albeit on the synthetic main track at Golden Gate.  Royal Alexei goes first off the claim for Trainer Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with such.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Shylock Eddie (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Seaside Song (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Felony One (ML 4-1)
# 5 Amers (ML 7-2)

Shylock Eddie was victorious at this class level last time out.  Seaside Song could move up with the class drop.  Felony One finished in the Trifecta in four of her five prior dirt starts.  Amers could improve going third off the layoff.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 She's Over the Top (ML 9-2)
# 7 Lucky Outcome (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Marina Rose (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dayjur Bold (ML 20-1)
# 8 Quadrillionaire (ML 3-1)
# 9 Check Six (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Lostmysister (ML 15-1)
# 2 American Sheriff (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Mexicat (ML 20-1)

She's Over the Top took the Place at this class level last time out.  Lucky Outcome showed good early speed against classier foes down at Santa Anita last time out.  Marina Rose could move up with the class drop.

Dayjur Bold could improve going third off the layoff.  Quadrillionaire could improve with the surface switch.  Check Six is a first time starter in a field where the experienced runners haven't shown a whole lot.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 6 with 6 with 3,7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6 with 1,6,7 with 1,6 with 3,4,5,7,8,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 6 with 6 with 3,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 6 with 3,7 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 3,5 with 3,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 6 with 1,2 $1.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, July 14, 2018

7/14/18 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 2 Mirror Image (Final Odds 3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 2 Nap Lajoie (5.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 3 We Will Re Joyce (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Courtship (3.10) - "B" Selection

As mentioned in the preview, Mirror Image was victorious in his only other try over this track; in retrospect, that should have been sufficient to warrant Mirror Image's inclusion on the big ticket.

Sill, the addition of Mirror Image by itself would not have been enough to keep the big ticket from becoming trash, as Nap Lajoie was not a part of my play; and, in retrospect, does not seem to have deserved to be a part of my play.  In his most recent start prior to Saturday, Nap Lajoie was defeated by less expensive stock; and in his two most recent tries on a Fast dirt track, Nap Lajoie had finished 8th and 7th, a combined fifty-nine lengths behind the winner.  It's difficult to imagine Nap Lajoie finding his way onto the big ticket under any scenario that does not involve the "ALL" button.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 2 / 3 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $194.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/14/18 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the final weekend of the Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Meet, along with their twice as expensive Late Pick Four; therefore my action these next two days can be found in Northern California, as the State Fair meet moves to the state capital.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Sacramento.

RACE 5 - Clm $10k N4L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Mister Mojo (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 6 Particle of Energy (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Mirror Image (ML 7-2)
# 3 One Son of a Chief (ML 3-1)

Mister Mojo looks quickest here, and Mister Mojo has run well in the past over Fast dirt tracks.  Particle of Energy ships in from out of state while exiting a key race.  Mirror Image was victorious in his only other try over this track.  One Son of a Chief could improve going second off the freshening.

RACE 6 - OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Bay Area (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 6 Nowhere Man (ML 5-2)

C's

# 4 Declassified (ML 5-1)
# 7 Tap Fever (ML 4-1)


Bay Area has finished in the Trifecta seven of the eight times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track.  Nowhere Man fits well here if he can improve upon his prior dirt form.  Declassified could improve with the return to two turn racing.  Tap Fever, make his first try on a Fast dirt track, looks well bred for the surface.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $16k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 We Will Re Joyce (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Allotment (ML 9-2)
# 2 I Love Romance (ML 4-1)

# 8 Peppered Jo (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Perfectus (ML 12-1)
# 6 Gambler's Appeal (ML 10-1)
# 7 Holy Diver (ML 15-1)


Scratch # 5 Colonel Deering (ML 7-2)

We Will Re Joyce was victorious last time out at this class level; Trainer Victor Trujillo tends to do well with claimers trying to do it again.  Allotment took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.

I Love Romance goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such.  Peppered Jo was victorious in both of her prior tries over a Fast dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Md $5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 The Ice Box Kid (ML 3-1)
# 8 Genuwine Wine (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 The Six Grandkids (ML 8-1)
# 6 Terrell's Pen Pal (ML 9-2)
# 7 Courtship (ML 5-2)


C's

# 3 Multiple Suns (ML 12-1)
# 4 Brite Sierra (ML 15-1)
# 5 Redneck Stranger (ML 12-1)


The Ice Box Kid makes his first start for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.  The Ice Box Kid is also adding the hood, another move with which Trainer Morey often succeeds.

Genuwine Wine tries to make the twentieth time the charm Saturday.  Genuwine Wine has the talent, now just needs the desire.

The Six Grandkids has good early speed, and might be able to ride the rail ahead of all the rest.  Terrell's Pen Pal might improve going third off the layoff.  Courtship ships in from downstate and drops sharply down the class ladder.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 3 with 2,8 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,8 with 1,2,6,7,8 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1 with 3 with 2,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,7 with 3 with 2,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 4,6,7 with 2,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 3 with 3,4,5 $1.50

Total: $50.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, July 8, 2018

7/8/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 Cash Driven (Final Odds 4.80) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Game Star (3.80) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Easter Dream (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Darkstream (0.60*) - "A" Selection

In the second leg, "B" Selection # 3 Pepper Sings (4.00) was a head too slow in getting under the wire; and that head was all the difference Sunday between collecting and contributing, as the other three winners were all to be found on the big ticket.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 7 / 3 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $235.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/8/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Sunday, the final day of the racing meet at the Alameda County Fairgrounds; well, at least until Autumn.  For those of you with your eyes on the jackpot pools, keep in mind that, even though this is the final day of the meet, there is no mandatory payout today.  Any jackpot not scooped Sunday will carryover to the State Fair at Sacramento, where racing begins on Friday the 13th.  Anyway, all that is merely a public service announcement for those interested; so with that out of the way let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 6 - Clm $4k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Borden County (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Cash Driven (ML 4-1)
# 8 Singaprayer (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Atticism (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 5 Gone My Way (ML 5-1)

Border County and Singaprayer filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out while running with a higher price tag on their heads.  Cash Driven took the Place at this class level last time out.  Atticism took the Place at this class level two and three starts back.

RACE 7 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Dominate Warrior (ML 2-1)

B's

# 3 Pepper Sings (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Ur Not My President (ML 15-1)
# 2 Wild Rival (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nevada Wild Cat (ML 6-1)
# 7 Game Star (ML 8-1)
# 8 Starting Lineup (ML 10-1)


Scratch # 6 King of Leon (Arg) (ML 5-1)

Dominate Warrior disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts, taking the Place both times; perhaps the third time is the charm.  Pepper Sings took the Show at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Sharona Sunset (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Clean Living (ML 4-1)
# 3 Easter Dream (ML 3-1)
# 4 Hub Cap (ML 12-1)
# 5 Swanee (ML 9-2)
# 6 Mariposa Brava (ML 5-1)


C's

None

Scratch # 7 Sunset Melody (ML 6-1)

Note for future reference that, while this contest was carded for open company, all entrants are California bred.

Sharona Sunset took the Show at this class level last time out.  Clean Living could improve going second off the layoff.  Easter Dream could move up with the class drop and the added equipment.  Hub Cap could be the one running best late.

Swanee showed good early speed against more expensive stock last time out.  Mariposa Brava set all the fractions while winning her debut last time out.  Yeah, that all of them; so the "ALL" button it is.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Darkstream (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Admonition (ML 4-1)
# 3 Tribal Finale (ML 7-2)

C's

# 5 Bellaasario (ML 10-1)
# 6 Fire Command (ML 9-2)
# 7 Oursensationalgirl (ML 10-1)


Scratch # 1 Night of Idiots (ML 12-1) and # 4 Girlinexcess (ML 6-1)

Darkstream took the Place at this class level last time out.  Admonition took the Show against non-claiming maidens over this track last time out; however, last time out was last September, and the drop into the maiden claiming ranks after the long layoff is a bit of a red flag.

Tribal Finale and Fire Command filled out the final two rungs of the Trifecta against California bred company last time out.  Bellasario is on the tickets because everyone else is.  Oursensationalgirl drops in for a tag for the first time.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 3,4 with ALL with 2,3,8 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 2 with 8 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,5,7,8 with 2 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 5,6,7 $1.50

Total: $59.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo