10/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 3 Coco Kisses (Final Odds 2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The California Distaff - # 10 Love a Honeybadger (2.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Two Fifty Coup (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Lightning Dove (4.10) - "C" Selection

While I strongly considered Lightning Dove for inclusion on the big ticket, I ultimately decided to use # 13 Snaked (9.80) instead, because I didn't like the way Lightning Dove had run in her two most recent races when going around just one turn on the flats.  But while failing to give a spot on the big ticket to Lightning Dove was a mistake, it was just one mistake.  Going five deep in the opening leg just to watch the Favorite romp was another notable error, as was doubling the cost of the big ticket by not making Two Fifty Coup a single in the penultimate contest.  Correcting either of those two errors would have allowed for Lightning Dove's inclusion on the big ticket, and made Saturday a day to collect, rather than contribute.  But such was not to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Well Hello (1.80) - $53.60 Finish: 3rd
# 12 Tyfosha (1.30*) - $42.10 Finish: 2nd
# 13 Snaked (9.80) - $334.05 Finish: 4th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 10 / 4 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $63.05 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's a rainy day in Southern California; everything is off the grass, and the main track is (at this time) listed as Wet Fast.  Generally, I try to avoid playing a card on such days; but it's raining most everywhere (it seems) in North America, so I figured I'd just keep it at the track where I had already printed the Past Performances.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Absolutely Perfect (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 3 Coco Kisses (ML 5-2)
# 4 Paprika (ML 3-1)
# 5 Lovely Finish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Smoovie (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Into Rissa (ML 10-1)

# 2 Encountress (ML 12-1)

# 6 Tribal Ann (ML 10-1)

This contest (at least, so far) has remained clean; which, looking at the field, makes sense, as none of the entrants has shown themselves to be a standout as of yet, so why not try the off footing and see what happens.  With that in mind, I decided to go with a first time starter as my top selection in this race; and in my opinion the best of the debut runners is Absolutely Perfect, who has been working well leading up to today, and seems well bred to handle to off going.

Coco Kisses has the talent to win at this level, though she seems to settle for too many minor awards.  Paprika ran well over this main track in the past, albeit during drier times.  Lovely Finish has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two career starts, both at this class level.  Smoovie could be quickest here, especially with the hood being added.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] The California Distaff $100k - Five Furlongs Dirt (Originally Scheduled For Turf)

A’s

# 9 S Y Sky (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Meet and Greet (ML 5-1)

# 10 Love a Honeybadger (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Hailey Rachele (ML 20-1)

# 6 Ismelucky (ML 12-1)

# 7 How About Zero (ML 4-1)

# 8 Late 'n Left (ML 30-1)

# 11 Family Girl (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Princess Roi (ML 8-1) and # 3 Beau Square (ML 10-1)

EDIT:  # 4 Helen's Tiger (ML 12-1), originally my "A" Selection, has been scratched.  # 9  S Y Sky is now my "A" Selection; the tickets below have been updated accordingly.

This seems like a good time to point out that the Morning Line that I'm using is from when these Past Performances were first released; so, needless to say, with the scratches and the change in conditions, they really don't mean much.  So don't expect to be getting 12-1 on Helen's Tiger, though that would be very nice.

Helen's Tiger fits well here on class, and has run quite well at today's distance in the past.  Meet and Gret's only career loss came right before she went on the shelf for close to eight months.

S Y Sky misses by just a length of being four-for-four for her career; but I'm not sure if she can get there in time at today's shortened distance.  Love a Honeybadger looks to be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Two Fifty Coup (ML 8-5)

# 13 Mr. Class (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Bonsail Treasure (ML 15-1)
# 2 Redrock Trail (ML 7-2)

# 3 Samurai Jack (ML 6-1)
# 5 Warrensdirtydancer (ML 30-1)

# 7 Lifesbeengoodsofar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Nations Hope (ML 12-1)
# 9 Jonathantoquick (ML 12-1)
# 10 Empirical Data (ML 20-1)
# 11 Magic Bro (ML 15-1)

# 12 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 6 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 20-1)

Two Fifty Coup and Mr. Class each look to be much the best here, and there seems little reason to choose between the two, as the scratches in the other legs have eliminated many contenders.  Just to be safe, the remainder of the field are being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt (Originally Scheduled For Downhill Turf)

A’s

# 2 Well Hello (ML 5-1)

B's

# 12 Tyfosha (ML 12-1)

# 13 Snaked (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Demigoddess (ML 50-1)
# 6 Lightning Dove (ML 10-1)

# 8 Clearly Gone (ML 20-1)

# 10 Media Tone (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 3 Great Return (ML 3-1); # 4 Ladybug (ML 4-1); # 5 Pursuing The Dream (Ire) (ML 12-1); # 7 Navajo Dreamer (Ire) (ML 8-1); # 9 Chatty (ML 6-1); # 11 Nice Ice (ML 8-1); # 14 Easy Grader (ML 5-1)

Looking at the conditions, this looks like a pretty typical OC $40k/N1X written out in a very complicated manner.  Anyway, the most important thing to note is that none of these are in for a tag.

Well Hello looks classiest here, and should improve with the return to one turn racing.  Tyfosha could be quickest here.  Snaked is undefeated since joining the barn of Trainer Steve Knapp.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 4,13 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8 with 5,9,10 with 4,13 with 2,12,13 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,6 with 9 with 4,13 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,6,7,8,11 with 4,13 with 2 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 2 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 4,13 with 1,6,8,10 $4.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:48 EDT / 3:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 7 Nevermissesabeat (Final Odds 6.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 I Belong to Becky (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Secret Spice (3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Swingtime - # 10 Fahan Mura (2.80*) - "A" Selection

The good news is that I got a pair of "A" Selections home in Sunday's sequence.  The not so good news is that they were the two Post Time Favorites in the sequence, so everyone else had them too.  The worse news is that they were the only two selections from my main ticket to find their way to the Winner's Circle.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 4 / 7 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $358.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

A Listed Stakes, as well as a pair of contests for state bred lifetime non-winners of one, are among the races comprising the final four events on the program in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at each of them below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Red Envelope (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 9 Sir Eddie (ML 4-1)

# 10 Ostini (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Valiant (ML 20-1)

# 3 Raise the Gamble (ML 50-1)

# 4 Cool Your Jets (ML 6-1)

# 6 Thomas Henry (ML 10-1)

# 7 Nevermissesabeat (ML 4-1)

# 8 Captain Buzzkill (ML 12-1)
# 11 Reckless Gravity (ML 20-1)

# 12 Dynamic Duo (ML 50-1)

Scratch # 5 Astonishing Tweet (ML 5-1); # 13 Leroy Pegasus (ML 50-1); and # 14 Atonarun (ML 6-1)

This is as good a place as any to mention that in California state bred only races are actually open not just to any runners that are California bred but also to those that are California sired.  That's why Captain Buzzkill is eligible to compete here despite being Kentucky bred; because Captain Buzzkill's sire, Ministers Wild Cat, stands at Tommy Town Thoroughbreds in California.

Red Envelope has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his two career starts; and Red Envelope seems well bred to handle the move to the lawn.  Sir Eddie has taken the Place in each of his three prior tries charging down the hill.  Ostini has shown good early speed when routing on the flats; such tend to do well when charging down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 I Belong to Becky (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Stay in Yo Lane (ML 5-2)

# 6 Starring John Wain (ML 4-1)

# 7 Concord Jet (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Poppy's C Note (ML 8-1)
# 2 Calder Vale (ML 8-1)
# 3 Unplayable (ML 12-1)
# 8 S On My Chest (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 Forestation (ML 20-1)

I Belong to Becky and Stay in Yo Lane filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Starring John Wain adds the blinkers and drops in for a tag for the first time.  Concord Jet took the Show behind a next out winner last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Just Grazed Me (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 5 Ransomed (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Starr of Quality (ML 4-1)
# 3 Whirling (ML 8-1)

# 4 Danushka's My Girl (ML 8-1)

# 6 Jest a Princess (ML 10-1)
# 7 Secret Spice (ML 5-2)

Just Grazed Me took the Place last time out in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Ransomed seems to be in good form as she's been working her way up the class ladder, and Trainer Vann Belvoir tends to do well when placing his last out winners.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Swingtime $70k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Fahan Mura (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Way to Versailles (ML 7-2)

# 6 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 9 Cordiality (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Impasse (ML 20-1)
# 3 Okinawa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Quebec (ML 10-1)

# 5 Barleysugar (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 7 Melissa Jane (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tonahutu (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 11 Achira (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 12 India Mantuana (ML 20-1) and # 13 Shehastheritestuff (ML 20-1)

Fahan Mura took the Show in the Grade 2 John C Mabee last time out, and is undefeated in four tries over this turf course.  Way to Versailles won the Grade 2 Royal North last time out, albeit while going around just one turn.

The Tulip (Ire) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Cordiality took the Show in the Grade 3 Wilshire over this turf course two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,9,10 with 4,5,6,7 with 1,5 with 1,6,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12 with 4 with 1 with 10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,3,8 with 1 with 10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 10 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,11 $3.50

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 8 Awesome Anywhere (Final Odds 5.40) - No Selection

Race 9 - The City of Hope Mile - # 8 Sharp Samurai (1.20*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 7 Michael Mundo (19.50) - "C" Selection

Race 11 - # 6 Courteous (23.00) - No Selection

With one backup "C" Selection and two outright misses among the winners, it's fair to say that I did not have a handle on today's sequence.  But then, judging by the payouts, it's also fair to say that neither did most everyone else.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 8 / 7 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $9,753.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 City of Hope Mile is Saturday's featured race in Southern California; named in honor of City of Hope comprehensive cancer center in Duarte, CA.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Best Two Minutes (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 12 Jungle Warfare (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Solid Wager (ML 5-1)

# 6 Jan's Reserve (ML 12-1)

# 7 Boy Howdy (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 K Thirty Eight (ML 6-1); # 10 Microrithms (ML 7-2); and # 11 The Rule of King's (ML 50-1)

Best Two Minutes, popular at the claim box, took the Place behind a next out winner the last time that he competed at this class level.  Solid Wager, Jan's Reserve and Jungle Warfare each took the Place at this class level in their respective last time out.  Of the three, I think Jungle Warfare is the most likely to improve.  Boy Howdy could improve with the return to the Santa Anita main track, where all three of his career Wins have occurred.

RACE 9 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 8 Sharp Samurai (ML 2-1)

# 9 Fly to Mars (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Double Touch (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 2 White Flag (ML 5-1)
# 3 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 20-1)

# 5 Ohio (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Psycho Sister (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mithqaal (ML 12-1)

Fly to Mars and Sharp Samurai finished second and third in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile, though their placings were reversed due to a disqualification .  Flamboyant (Fr) won the Grade 3 San Francisco up at Golden Gate the last time that he only had to go eight furlongs.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Zapana's Game (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Downside Up (ML 8-1)

# 3 Katzumoto (ML 6-1)

# 4 Aquila (ML 8-1)

# 14 Latitude (ML 6-1)

C's

# 6 Pacific Song (ML 8-1)

# 7 Michael Mundo (ML 15-1)

# 9 Psychedelicat (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 5 Royal Seeker (ML 15-1)

Zapana's Game and Katzumoto filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta for a higher price tag last time out.  Downside Up, also in that contest, disappointed as the Post Time Favorite; but Downside Up did take the Show at that same level two starts back.

Aquila is getting some much needed class relief here, as well as going around just one turn for the first time in his career.  Latitude took the Place for a higher price tag last time out.

Pacific Song returns to one turn racing as well as to a more realistic class level.  Michael Mundo took the Show against classier competition two starts back.  Psychedelicat could improve with the class drop.

RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Colonial Creed (ML 8-5)

B's

# 1 Hyde Park Corner (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 11 Noble Contessa (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Encanta (ML 8-1)

# 4 Discreet Diva (ML 6-1)

# 5 Hello Bubbles (ML 12-1)

# 7 Bellazano (ML 30-1)

# 9 Barbadolla (ML 12-1)

# 10 Archana (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Velvet Queen (ML 12-1) and # 14 True Validity (ML 6-1)

Colonial Creed has taken the Place at this class level in each of her two career starts.  Hyde Park Corner (Ire) and Noble Contessa filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level two starts back.

Encanta was quick early in her debut on the dirt last time out.  Discreet Diva took the Show at this class level sprinting on the flats in her debut last time out.  Hello Bubbles could improve with the blinkers coming off.

Bellazano is a first time starter for Trainer Mick Ruis, whose debut runners tend to do well.  Barbadolla and Archana are both trained by Phil D'Amato, who tends to do well with runners on the grass.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 8,9 with 11 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,12 with 4,8,9 with 1,3,4,11,14 with 1,2,11 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 8,9 with 11 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,5,6,7 with 11 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 8,9 with 6,7,9 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 8,9 with 11 with 3,4,5,7,9,10 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:14 EDT / 4:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo