10/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Buckys Pick (Final Odds 6.30) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - The Sunny Slope - # 3 Sparky Ville (2.10) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 10 Our Slick Chick (2.50*) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Erotic (11.50) - "C" Selection

Well, I was half right.  My single in the third leg, # 7 K P's Smokin (3.70) spent most of the race trapped behind a wall of horses, leaving her with too much to do in the stretch.  Meanwhile my top pick in the nightcap, # 6 Shaky Alibi (3.30), was able to get to the line well in front of both the Morning Line Favorite # 10 Pitino (3.40) and the Post Time Favorite # 9 Factorial (2.40*); but that was still only good enough for a fifth place finish.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 3 / 10 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $976.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The good news is that Sunday's featured race in Southern California, the Sunny Slope Stake for juveniles, has been carded among the final four contests on the day.  The bad news is that, while eleven were nominated for this event, only four will be leaving the gate.  The puzzling news is, shouldn't the Sunny Slope be run down the hill, rather than over the main track?  Anyway, all that aside, let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 7 Worthy Turk (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Snazzy Dresser (ML 4-1)

# 3 Exultation (ML 5-1)

# 5 Offshore (ML 4-1)

# 8 Buckys Pick (ML 8-1)

# 9 Spa Shackalacka (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Heartfullofstars (ML 20-1)

# 6 Wild Wild Kingdom (ML 6-1)

# 10 Stylistics United (ML 50-1)

# 11 Zapana's Game (ML 50-1)

Scratch # 1 Catch Fire (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions.  None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.

Worthy Turk is the only entrant in this field to have defeated winners, as Worthy Turk's solo score came at this class level back in July at Del Mar.  Snazzy Dresser was less than a length behind Worthy Turk at the line last time out while competing on the flats.  Exultation was much improved on the dirt last time out; perhaps that form will carryover to the Santa Anita hill.

Buckys Pick took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track.  Spa Shackalacka showed good early speed while routing over the Del Mar grass last time out; often such performances precede a notable effort in first tries down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - [R] The Sunny Slope $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Savagery (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Seven Scents (ML 8-5)

# 2 Shark (ML 15-1)

# 3 Sparky Ville (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Rickey B (ML 6-1) and # 6 Principe Carlo (ML 20-1)

Seriously, how is the Sunny Slope not carded for the downhill turf?  Anyway, the restriction on this race is  that it's open only to juveniles that have not won a Graded Stake.

With defections and scratches, this event is down to just for runners; so I'm just going "ALL" in for this leg.  I made Savagery my top pick here despite the fact that he's exiting a Maiden Claiming contest, because I think Savagery's pace figures last time out are just too good to ignore.  But seriously, with only four runners, I think it's best not to spend too much time analyzing this race.  

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 K P's Smokin (ML 6-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 C. R. Golden Queen (ML 50-1)
# 2 Reinahermosa (ML 20-1)

# 3 Cee Sam's Girl (ML 20-1)

# 4 Girl Drama (ML 7-2)

# 5 Summer Down Now (ML 12-1)

# 6 Inland Empire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Atrevida (ML 3-1)

# 9 Pray for Corday (ML 8-1)

# 10 Our Slick Chick (ML 4-1)

The conditions for this one is that if your filly or mare is four years old or older, she cannot have won two races in her lifetime.  If your filly is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction.  Note that Atrevida is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle twice in her career.

K P's Smokin won by the length of the stretch the last time that she routed on a Fast dirt track.  K P's Smokin now goes first off the claim for Trainer Steve Knapp, who tends to do well with such.  If K P's Smokin repeats, or even comes close to, that prior effort around two turns, then she should win easily Sunday.  But just in case, everyone else in the field is being used as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Shaky Alibi (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Blitzkrieg (ML 8-1)

# 9 Factorial (ML 4-1)

# 10 Pitino (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Paladar (ML 12-1)
# 4 Raging Tiger (ML 15-1)
# 5 Blaze of Glory (ML 15-1)
# 7 Erotic (ML 12-1)
# 8 Big Buzz (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Persuasive Cat (ML 12-1)

Shaky Alibi and Blitzkrieg both showed good early speed when routing over the flats; such tend to do well when charging down the hill.  Factorial ran well enough last time out in his first hill try that any move forward off that effort could put Factorial in the winner's circle Sunday.  If Pitino can bring the form that he showed in either of his two prior races to the hill, then Pitino can certainly win Sunday.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 5 with 7 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,7,8,9 with ALL with 7 with 2,6,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,10,11 with 5 with 7 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 6 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 7 with 3,4,5,7,8 $2.50

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:08 EDT / 3:08 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Baby Ice (Final Odds 2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Posh Holly (Ire) (2.00) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Tough But Nice (6.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Vantastic (2.90) - "A" Selection

Baby Ice really should have been a single in the opening leg; her pace figures from her victory last time out were really that good.  Still, we are talking about a non-Favorite in an N2L field; so being overly cautious is forgivable; especially when you collect anyway.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Storms River (5.80) - $228.00 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 8 / 8 / 5  which paid $150.90 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $93.40 on my initial $57.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.62-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The final four sequence for Saturday's card in Acadia leans heavily on those who have rarely or never visited the winner's circle; as we have one contest for lifetime non-winners of two, along with a pair of juvenile events for runners with even fewer victories.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Baby Ice (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 1 As a Rule (ML 8-1)
# 2 Dressed in Prada (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Fellina (ML 30-1)
# 5 Sharona Sunset (ML 2-1)
# 7 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 6 Wicked Sunset (ML 10-1)

Fellina is one-for-twenty in her career, while Sharona Sunset and Swallows Inn Gal are each one-for-eighteen lifetime.  That's why they're the backup "C" Selections; they've already shown that winning isn't something that rates high on their lists of things to do.  Baby Ice and Dressed in Prada both graduated last time out, while As a Rule got her solo victory two starts back.  As those three haven't yet shown a real reluctance for getting their picture taken, I'll be using them on the big ticket.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Fairy Tale Bliss (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Flying Blue (ML 10-1)
# 8 Posh Holly (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 9 Ask the Customer (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Unbridled Huntress (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mercy Mercy (ML 10-1)
# 5 Hurley (ML 12-1)
# 7 Shes All Woman (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 6 Bellazano (ML 12-1)

Fairy Tale Bliss and Flying Blue each ran well in their debuts at Del Mar and Golden Gate, respectively.  Posh Holly (Ire) took the Show behind a next out winner in her last race before shipping to North America.

Ask the Customer didn't show much in her turf debut two starts back; but Ask the Customer did run well on the main track last time out, so perhaps the poor grass effort was a matter of form rather than surface.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Ninety Nine Proof (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 4 Fire to the Wire (ML 4-1)
# 6 King Abner (ML 3-1)
# 8 Tough But Nice (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Hot Perfection (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tanners Pride (ML 12-1)
# 7 Minoso (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Older Brother (ML 8-1)

For those curious, this contest allows California sired runners as well as California breds to enter; which is why Kentucky bred Tough But Nice is eligible to compete here, as his sire, Good Journey, stood at Magali Farms.

Ninety Nine Proof won at this level last time out, with King Abner and Tough But Nice filling out the Trifecta behind him.  Note that Ninety Nine Proof is the only runner in this contest that's in for a tag.

Fire to the Wire defeated open N3L company last time out over this main track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Vantastic (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Storms River (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Temple Secret (ML 5-1)
# 3 Platinum Nights (ML 6-1)
# 4 Afleeting Life (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bold Endeavor (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bob and Jackie (ML 6-1)
# 8 Volubile (ML 6-1)
# 9 Indy Jones (ML 20-1)

Seven of the nine entrants in the contest are first time starters, and neither of the two experienced runners has ever competed on the grass.  So if you've got deep pockets, you'll probably want to spread as wide as possible in this leg.  I decided to go with Vantastic, the better of the two experienced combatants, and Storms River, who looks best among the first time starters, and just sit back and see what happens.  As you probably already guessed, the backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 1 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3 with 2,4,8,9 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 2 with 1 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,3,5,7 with 1 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 2,3,7 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9 $3.50

Total: $57.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:08 EDT / 3:08 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 R Cha Cha (Final Odds 1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Miss Bennet (23.80) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Surfing Star (2.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Afleet Ascent (2.00) - "B" Selection

The sequence began well enough; though it's clear that most everyone else saw what I saw in the opening leg, betting R Cha Cha down from his Morning Line of 8-1 to his Final Odds of 8-5.  Unfortunately it was all downhill from there for me, as Sunday became a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 2 / 4 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $848.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

As I type this, it appears that things have dried out in Arcadia, as races Sunday are back on the turf, including the down the hill course.  Since half of today's final four races are carded for the downhill course, I'm hopeful that will not change, since if those races are moved to the main track, I'll then have to effectively re-handicap my entire play.  So with that said let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $35k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 R Cha Cha (Morning Line 8-1)

B’s

# 2 David's Memory (ML 6-1)
# 4 Cats Blame (ML 5-2)
# 6 Invasion Looming (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Westwood's Wizard (ML 4-1)
# 5 Zippy Groom (ML 15-1)
# 7 Silver Summer (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 King Cause (ML 5-1)

R Cha Cha has run well in the past charging down the Santa Anita hill, and looks to be the best here, provided that he's recovered from what caused the voided claim last time out followed by six weeks on the shelf.  David's Memory's two career victories have come over this downhill course, and David's Memory should appreciate the class relief.

Cats Blame has run well in the past when charging down the hill; but the hood removal is a bit of a concern, as it appears that his connections are trying to get Cats Blame re-focused.  Invasion Looming is another getting some much needed class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Show Hostess (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Tiz a Sharpie (ML 6-1)
# 5 Samandah (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Miss Bennet (ML 12-1)
# 3 Sold It (ML 3-1)
# 6 Orca (ML 6-1)
# 7 Discrete Stevie B (ML 30-1)
# 9 Soothing (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Enaya Alrabb (ML 9-2)

Show Hostess and Samandah look to have been working best among the debut runners in this field, as there doesn't appear to be a true standout amongst the experienced entrants.  Tiz a Sharpie was a well beaten third in her debut last time out; but Tiz a Sharpie may move up with the increase in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Avanti Bello (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Drizzy (ML 10-1)
# 2 Plain Wrap (ML 6-1)

# 3 Ground Attack (ML 5-1)
# 4 Surfing Star (ML 9-2)
# 6 Carville (ML 4-1)
# 7 California Journey (ML 5-1)

Avanti Bello looks much the best here.  Were I to double the cost of the big ticket by adding another entrant, it would probably be Plain Wrap, as he appears to be the most talented among the rest of the field.  But Plain Wrap is a career one-for-twenty-four, and I'm going to take a change that he doesn't decide Sunday to make that two-for-twenty-five.  So Plain Wrap goes in with the backup "C" Selections, along with all the others in this bunch who aren't Avanti Bello.

RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 7 Calexman (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Little Juanito (ML 8-1)

# 2 Denman's Call (ML 12-1)

# 3 Brandothebartender (ML 12-1)

# 4 Artie B Good (ML 8-1)
# 5 Eric the Trojan (ML 4-1)

# 6 Flip the Coin Jan (ML 4-1)

# 8 Tule Fog (ML 8-1)

# 9 Afleet Ascent (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Calexman, Show finisher in the Grade 3 LaJolla, looks best here; but not much the best, in my opinion.  So I'm just not going to fool with this leg.  I've got my single above; so for this event, it's everybody into the pool as I punch the "ALL" button.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 8 with 5 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,8 with 4,5,8 with 5 with ALL $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 8 with 5 with 7 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,6,7,9 with 5 with 7 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 with 7 $3.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EDT / 3:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo