11/2/18 Churchill Downs All Breeders' Cup Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 6 Newspaperofrecord (Final Odds 0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 7 Jaywalk (5.50) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 5 Line of Duty (Ire) (3.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The BC Juvenile - # 9 Game Winner (1.00*) - "A" Selection

Getting three Aces home means that had I used Line of Duty (Ire) in any capacity in my play, I would have collected.  But I remarked in the preview that with fields this large using all non-big ticket runners in all legs as backup "C" Selections is just too expensive a proposition.  Of course, had # 2 Uncle Benny (8.00) gotten to the wire a half length sooner in the Juvenile Turf, or had the stewards ruled that the check that Uncle Benny received from Line of Duty in the stretch was more than just incidental contact, then I would have collected.  But such was not to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 5 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $91.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/18 Churchill Downs All Breeders' Cup Pick Four - Preview

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 2 The Mackem Bullet (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 14 East (GB) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Concrete Rose (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lily's Candle (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Just Wonderful (ML 4-1)
# 5 La Pelosa (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 11 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 12 Summering (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Pivottina (FR) (ML 30-1) and # 16 Winning Envelope (ML 30-1)

New for the Breeders' Cup this year is that all the juvenile contests have been grouped together into Day One of the event for what is being called Future Stars Friday.  So the fact that all four of these races are comprised of two year old runners adds a large degree of, well I won't say chaos, but let's say chance, to the ultimate outcomes.  Just something to keep in mind as these events unfold.

Newspaperofrecord (Ire) probably should be a single here; something that I could probably say regarding my top choice in most legs of this sequence.  But, again, these are juveniles, so it seems prudent to spread at least a bit in each contest.

Newspaperofrecord's two career starts have both been in the US despite Newspaperofrecord being Irish bred.  Conversely, Just Wonderful is Kentucky bred, though this will be Just Wonderful's first North American contest.  Note that the large fields preclude using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections in each and every leg; so in this leg I'm just using those that I think might possibly upset the apple cart in the opening stanza.

RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Jaywalk (ML 7-2)
# 10 Bellafina (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Reflect (ML 15-1)
# 2 Serengeti Empress (ML 7-2)
# 3 Vibrance (ML 10-1)
# 4 Restless Rider (ML 9-2)
# 5 Cassies Dreamer (ML 30-1)
# 6 Baby Nina (ML 30-1)
# 8 Sippican Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 9 Splashy Kisses (ML 20-1)

It's East (Jaywalk) versus West (Bellafina); and which of the two you prefer in this contest probably reflects more upon what you think of the quality of horse racing on the two coasts rather than the specific merits of each of these two runners.  But Jaywalk and Bellafina certainly appear to be standouts in this field, though I am using all the others as backup "C" Selections just in case.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 14 Anthony Van Dyck (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Uncle Benny (ML 15-1)
# 4 Forty Under (ML 5-1)
# 11 King of Speed (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Arthur Kitt (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Much Better (ML 10-1)
# 7 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 12-1)
# 13 Marie's Diamond (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Tracksmith (ML 30-1) and # 16 Order and Law (ML 30-1)

This is another contest where my top selection, Anthony Van Dyck, could work very well as a big ticket single.  But these are juveniles, it's turf, so spreading seems prudent.

Uncle Benny should improve with the stretch out.  Forty Under has won on both firm and soft going.  King of Speed may raise his game to match the level of competition.  The backup "C" Selections are those I view as the best of the rest.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Game Winner (ML 8-5)

B's

# 5 Well Defined (ML 20-1)
# 6 Complexity (ML 5-2)

C's

# 4 Tight Ten (ML 30-1)
# 7 Mind Control (ML 20-1)
# 10 Knicks Go (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 Code of Honor (ML 5-1)

Another East (Complexity) versus West (Game Winner) battle; I wonder how much time the television announcers will devote to playing that angle up?

Well Defined probably doesn't belong on the big ticket, as Well Defined was a well beaten third in his only race against open company.  But Well Defined's speed figures look good with both Beyer and Brisnet; and you have to presume that Mike Smith wouldn't be hopping on his back if he didn't think that Well Defined had at least a chance of winning.  The best of the rest (in my humble opinion) comprise the backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 14 with 9 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,14 with 7,10 with 2,4,11,14 with 5,6,9 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,11,12 with 7,10 with 14 with 9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 14 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 1,3,7,13 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,10 with 14 with 4,7,10 $3.00

Total: $55.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 11 North County Guy (Final Odds 2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Hard Arch (25.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Comma To The Top - # 7 Battle of Midway (1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Breakers Isle (3.50) - "B" Selection

So including Battle of Midway on the big ticket proved to be the right decision; as the class drop was just what the doctor ordered, with Battle of Midway looking very much like his old self.  And yet, it could be said that as far as the overall Late Pick Four play was concerned, including Battle of Midway on the big ticket was actually the wrong decision, as it made a losing wager more expensive; because there was no way that I was finding Hard Arch without hitting the "ALL" button.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 9 / 7 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $791.95 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Comma To The Top, a Listed Stakes scheduled for two turns over the main track, is Sunday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 11 North County Guy (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Fashionably Fast (ML 3-1)

# 7 Silver Summer (ML 20-1)

# 8 Hollywood Square (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 12-1)

# 2 Love My Bud (ML 15-1)

# 5 Preacher Roe (ML 8-1)
# 6 Shaymin (ML 12-1)
# 9 Duke of Fallbrook (ML 50-1)

# 10 Nevermissesabeat (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 4 Plain Wrap (ML 30-1)

Note that this race is restricted to runners that are California bred OR California sired; so since Love My Bud was sired by Tizbud (who stands at Harris Farms), Love My Bud is eligible to run here despite being Kentucky bred.

North County Guy tries the Santa Anita Hill for the first time, after closing well in his turf debut at Del Mar last time out.  If Fashionably Fast can carry his dirt form onto the turf, then Fashionably Fast should win by the length of the stretch.

Silver Summer has proven to be a model of inconsistency throughout his career; but if Silver Summer can summon his best today, then he'll be the one getting his picture taken.  Hollywood Square was victorious in his one prior try charging down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k B - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Haylord (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 5 Topgallant (ML 4-1)

# 6 Premium Forest (ML 15-1)

# 7 Glorious Crown (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Original Intent (ML 6-1)

# 3 Livin On Prayer (ML 6-1)

# 4 Point Guard (ML 4-1)

# 8 Lucky Patrick (ML 50-1)
# 9 Hard Arch (ML 15-1)

The conditions for this one state that if your horse is four years old or older, he cannot run here if he has won two or more races in his lifetime.  However, if your horse is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction.  Note that Premium Forest is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle twice in his career.

Haylord has taken the Place at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts.  Topgallant could move up with a return to the main track.  Premium Forest is getting some class relief here.  Glorious Crown looks to be in good form, and tends to run well on both turf and dirt.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The Comma To The Top $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Tatters to Riches (ML 9-5)

B's

# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 4-1)

# 7 Battle of Midway (ML 8-5)

C's

# 3 Roman Rosso (Arg) (ML 4-1)

# 5 All Out Blitz (ML 12-1)

# 6 Very Very Stella (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 Curlin Road (ML 20-1)

Tatters to Riches had no problems going around two turns for the first time last time out, and should do well with the rail draw today.  St. Joe Bay could improve with the return to two turn racing.

Battle of Midway, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, is obviously not the horse now that he was then.  I say obviously because if he was, Battle of Midway would be running next week at Churchill Downs in this year's edition of The Breeders' Cup.  In his two starts since un-retiring from stud duty due to being sub-fertile, Battle of Midway has been less than impressive.  But perhaps Battle of Midway will wake up with the class drop; and while I certainly don't expect Battle of Midway to return to his 2017 form today, I think he just may get back to a point where he'll be able to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Falcone (ML 9-5)

B's

# 10 Breakers Isle (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Causeididitmyway (ML 10-1)
# 4 Starship Chewy (ML 50-1)
# 5 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 6 Super Classic (ML 30-1)
# 7 Magnum Maduro (ML 50-1)
# 8 Mr. Esken (ML 50-1)
# 9 Implicitly (ML 4-1)

# 11 Bitter Ring Home (ML 4-1)
# 12 Hachiman (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Pointed (ML 12-1) and # 13 Aussie Fox (ML 6-1)

Falcone has taken the Place in each of his last three races, again both claiming and non-claiming maidens.  Breakers Isle took the Show against non-claiming maidens two starts back.  Everyone else goes on a backup ticket as a "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 1 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,8,11 with 2,5,6,7 with 1,4,7 with 3,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,9,10 with 2 with 1 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1,3,4,8,9 with 1 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 3,5,6 with 3 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 1 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12 $4.50

Total: $60.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:12 EDT / 3:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 9 Acker (Final Odds 3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Madame Vestal (7.40) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Autumn Miss - # 5 Toinette (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 4 Ketos (4.50) - "B" Selection

Since I often bemoan how frequently the final cut when paring down my list of contenders winds up costing me a win, it seems only right that I point out that Ketos was a late addition to the big ticket, added only because # 1 Reverend Al was a vet scratch from the final leg earlier today.  So maybe those things do even out over the long haul.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 8 St. Reno (2.90*) - $138.05 Finish: 6th

Note that # 11 Lambo Luxx was also on the big ticket; but Lambo Luxx was a post parade scratch by the veterinarian; and since St. Reno was the Post Time Favorite, he became Lambo Luxx's replacement.  So if St. Reno had won the nightcap, I would have collected the above Will Pay twice; once for having St. Reno on the big ticket, and once for having Lambo Luxx on the big ticket.

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 9 / 5 / 4  which paid $411.40 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $347.90 on my initial $63.50 investment, or approximate odds of 5.48-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 3 Autumn Miss, a two turn turf contest for three year old fillies, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - Clm $35k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Acker (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Buckstopper Kit (ML 5-1)
# 2 Uber Star (ML 8-1)
# 3 Incredible Luck (ML 6-1)
# 5 Impression (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cats Blame (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 So Be It (ML 20-1)
# 6 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)
# 7 Iron Alex (ML 12-1)
# 10 Upper Room (ML 12-1)

Acker is getting some much needed class relief here, and could improve going second off the layoff.  Buckstopper Kit defeated unconditioned claimers two starts back over the Del Mar course.  Uber Star took the Show against first level Allowance company upstate at Golden Gate.  Incredible Luck could move up with the drop in class.

Impression moved to the main track four starts back, and in those four starts earned his two career victories and also grabbed a Show.  So why in the world would you move him back to the turf?  Well, the short answer is because that's where the money is.   While Impression is still a maiden on the grass, he has actually earned more money per start when on the turf rather than the dirt.  Impression hasn't run poorly in his prior turf starts, so perhaps his recent dirt form will carry over to the grass.

Cats Blame took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit for a different barn.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Honeyfromthesouth (ML 8-5)

B's

# 9 Madame Vestal (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Posit (ML 6-1)
# 6 Twirling Diamond (ML 15-1)
# 7 Miss Alegria (ML 20-1)
# 11 Slewgoodtobetrue (ML 4-1)

Honeyfromthesouth and Madame Vestal, two of the four experienced juveniles in this field, have both taken the Place in each of their two career starts.  Both also failed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, which is why it's hard to have too much faith in either as a big ticket single.  Note that I am not using everyone else in the field as a backup "C" Selection, because that's just too expensive a proposition to do in every race when every field has ten or more entrants.

RACE 10 - (F) The Autumn Miss (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Toinette (ML 9-5)

B's

# 4 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 4-1)
# 8 West Palm Beach (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 3 Streetwithnoname (ML 30-1)
# 9 Streak of Luck (ML 10-1)
# 10 Movie Moment (ML 30-1)
# 13 Flammetta (ML 12-1)
# 14 Hey Negrita (ML 10-1)

Toinette is best here by enough where you could give serious consideration to making her a big ticket single.  But Ms Bad Behavior could be far enough in front early that Toinette may have too much to do late.  On the other hand it could all fall apart up front; in which case West Palm Beach (Ire) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the ones I consider the best of the rest.

RACE 11 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Lambo Luxx (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Ketos (ML 5-1)
# 8 St. Reno (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Bitte (ML 8-1)
# 3 Baby Bear's Soup (ML 12-1)
# 5 Towards the Light (ML 20-1)
# 6 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Reverend Al (ML 12-1)

Lambo Luxx misses by a head of entering this contest with a three race winning streak.  Ketos could improve with the blinkers coming back off.  St. Reno was victorious one level below today's late time out.  The best of the rest make up the backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 5 with 5 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,8,9 with 5,9 with 4,5,8 with 4,8,11 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7,10 with 5 with 5 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,6,7,11 with 5 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 5 with 3,9,10,13,14 with 11 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 5 with 5 with 2,3,5,6 $2.00

Total: $63.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo