Fun Fact: All three Southern California thoroughbred race tracks (Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos) have a Fall Meeting. This is opening weekend for the Del Mar session, which is slated to run through Sunday, December 2. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lucky Val (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 6 Majestic Authority (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Dressed in Prada (ML 8-1)
# 2 Sea Glass (ML 6-1)
# 3 Greater Glory (ML 20-1)
# 4 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 6-1)
# 5 Carrie's Success (ML 3-1)
# 8 Jabber Now (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cee Sam's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wicked Sunset (ML 20-1)
My better judgement says that I should spread wide in this leg. But my better judgement also says that I should spread wide in the final leg; and my budget says I can't spread wide in both. So here I'm going with just two, and hoping for the best.
Lucky Val showed good early speed last time out over this main track, and Lucky Val should appreciate the significant class relief that she is getting here. Majestic Authority missed victory by less than a length two starts back at this class level while taking the Show. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - [R] The Let It Ride $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Afleet Ascent (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Prince Earl (ML 5-2)
# 5 Extrordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Fight On (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Choo Choo (ML 5-1)
# 4 Risky Proposition (ML 10-1)
# 7 Calexman (ML 7-2)
The restriction for entry into this event is that a runner could not have been a winner of a stakes of $60k or over. excepting state bred, at a mile or longer since April 1.
Afleet Ascent has finished in the Exacta in each of his last three starts. Prince Earl, scratched by Trainer Phil D'Amato out of last week's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita, has done nothing wrong in either of his two career starts.
Fight On and Extraordinary Jerry filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta in a first level Optional Claiming contest last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shivermetimbers (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Curlin Road (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Mongolian Groom (ML 20-1)
# 3 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 4 Pepe Tono (ML 6-1)
# 6 Engram (ML 20-1)
# 7 Captain Scotty (ML 3-1)
I wrote the description above as it is in my Past Performances, but when you break it down this is just an OC $62.5k/N2X. Note for the record that Curlin Road, Ike Walker, and Engram are the three that are in for a tag.
Shivermetimbers took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, over six lengths in front of Show finisher Pepe Tono. Curlin Road could move up with the drop in class and the reduction in real estate. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Encanta (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Out of Balance (ML 5-1)
# 3 Giza Goddess (ML 15-1)
# 6 Bizwhacks (ML 4-1)
# 10 Tapwater (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Ask the Customer (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reachreachreach (ML 20-1)
# 5 Samandah (ML 20-1)
# 7 Landon (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hyde Park Corner (Ire) (ML 15-1)
Encanta missed victory be a neck charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out. Out of Balance took the Place at this class level charging down the hill last time out. Giza Goddess could improve with the move to the turf.
Bizwhacks took the Show in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf last time out. Tapwater took the Place sprinting on the main track in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,9,10 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 with 1 with 5 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,7 with 5 with 9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 1,4,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Sunday, November 4, 2018
11/4/18 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview
Sunday is closing day for the Fall Meet at Santa Anita, which means that it's mandatory payout day for all pools; and that includes the jackpot Rainbow Pick Six. As there is a carryover in that pool of over a million dollars, I would venture to say that the experiment with this wager was a success, and that we will be seeing it again in the upcoming Winter-Spring Meet. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.
RACE 5 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mayan Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Irish Polo (ML 6-1)
# 2 Runningwscissors (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 5 Take Charge Lucky (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mo Dinero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Violent Behavior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Empirical Data (ML 30-1)
# 10 S On My Chest (ML 20-1)
# 11 Diamond Blitz (ML 4-1)
# 12 Mr Bingley (ML 20-1)
# 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Forestation (ML 20-1) and # 13 Calder Vale (ML 6-1). Bring in # 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Big decision right off the bat: Do I single in the opening leg? Mayan Warrior really towers over this field on paper. However, much could have been said about Mayan Warrior last time out, when he failed by a half dozen lengths as the Post Time Favorite. If that happens again today, then this could be a very short play for me; but it won't be a first round knockout, as all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Perfectly Majestic (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Tiz a Billy (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Placido (ML 6-1)
# 4 K Thirty Eight (ML 20-1)
# 5 Hitters Park (ML 8-1)
# 6 Jan's Reserve (ML 20-1)
# 7 Lauren's Ladd (ML 8-1)
# 8 Allaboutmike (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Man Chuckles (ML 6-1)
# 10 Castle (ML 8-1)
I was very tempted to single here, as I believe that Perfectly Majestic should totally out-class this field. But the concern with Perfectly Majestic is he seems to settle for too many minor awards. Yes, a large part of that is because of the caliber of competition; but when you have to go back more than a year in order to find a runner's last visit to the winner's circle, then perhaps that runner shouldn't be a big ticket single. So onto the big ticket goes Tiz a Billy, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 For the Hustle (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Powerful Thirst (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Salutelute (ML 12-1)
# 3 Braggart (ML 20-1)
# 4 Silver Badge (ML 30-1)
# 5 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
# 7 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pastorelli (ML 4-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 6-1)
# 10 Supreme Giant (ML 30-1)
# 12 War Link (ML 20-1)
# 13 Castle View (ML 50-1)
# 14 Conversate (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Flynn (ML 10-1)
For the Hustle has finished in the Trifecta each of the last three times that he has competed at this class level. Powerful Thirst took the Show at this class level last time out; and while it may seem that Powerful Thirst has used up all his chances, the routes in his Past Performances can be crossed out, as there was no way Powerful Thirst was going around two turns. The backup "C" Selections are all others.
RACE 8 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Have At It (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Kazan (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 5 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Mayan Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Irish Polo (ML 6-1)
# 2 Runningwscissors (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 5 Take Charge Lucky (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mo Dinero (ML 8-1)
# 8 Violent Behavior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Empirical Data (ML 30-1)
# 10 S On My Chest (ML 20-1)
# 11 Diamond Blitz (ML 4-1)
# 12 Mr Bingley (ML 20-1)
# 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 7 Forestation (ML 20-1) and # 13 Calder Vale (ML 6-1). Bring in # 14 A Salute to Lt Dan (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Big decision right off the bat: Do I single in the opening leg? Mayan Warrior really towers over this field on paper. However, much could have been said about Mayan Warrior last time out, when he failed by a half dozen lengths as the Post Time Favorite. If that happens again today, then this could be a very short play for me; but it won't be a first round knockout, as all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Perfectly Majestic (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Tiz a Billy (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Placido (ML 6-1)
# 4 K Thirty Eight (ML 20-1)
# 5 Hitters Park (ML 8-1)
# 6 Jan's Reserve (ML 20-1)
# 7 Lauren's Ladd (ML 8-1)
# 8 Allaboutmike (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Man Chuckles (ML 6-1)
# 10 Castle (ML 8-1)
I was very tempted to single here, as I believe that Perfectly Majestic should totally out-class this field. But the concern with Perfectly Majestic is he seems to settle for too many minor awards. Yes, a large part of that is because of the caliber of competition; but when you have to go back more than a year in order to find a runner's last visit to the winner's circle, then perhaps that runner shouldn't be a big ticket single. So onto the big ticket goes Tiz a Billy, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 For the Hustle (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Powerful Thirst (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Salutelute (ML 12-1)
# 3 Braggart (ML 20-1)
# 4 Silver Badge (ML 30-1)
# 5 Doheny Beach (ML 20-1)
# 7 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pastorelli (ML 4-1)
# 9 Emotional Ride (ML 6-1)
# 10 Supreme Giant (ML 30-1)
# 12 War Link (ML 20-1)
# 13 Castle View (ML 50-1)
# 14 Conversate (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Flynn (ML 10-1)
For the Hustle has finished in the Trifecta each of the last three times that he has competed at this class level. Powerful Thirst took the Show at this class level last time out; and while it may seem that Powerful Thirst has used up all his chances, the routes in his Past Performances can be crossed out, as there was no way Powerful Thirst was going around two turns. The backup "C" Selections are all others.
RACE 8 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Have At It (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Kazan (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Majestic Eagle (ML 8-1)
# 5 Pubilius Syrus (ML 15-1)
# 5 Pubilius Syrus (ML 15-1)
# 6 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Epical (ML 20-1)
# 7 Epical (ML 20-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Andesh (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Andesh (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Prince Earl (ML 6-1)
Have At It ships in from the east, and if he runs as he did last time out while winning the Grade 2 Hill Prince, then this race will be a no contest. Kazan (Ire) and River Boyne (Ire) filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby last time out. Everyone else is being used as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Kylemore (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Lord Guinness (ML 4-1)
# 3 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 4 Pleasant d'Oro (ML 6-1)
# 6 Surfing Star (ML 7-2)
# 7 Paddock Pick (ML 8-1)
# 10 Longden (ML 6-1)
# 10 Longden (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Violent Ridge (ML 15-1)
# 5 Secret Touch (ML 15-1)
# 9 Major Cabbie (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Arch Prince (ML 12-1) and # 12 Ferguson (ML 12-1)
If you've got the budget, don't mess with this leg; just punch the "ALL" button. I relegated three in the field to backup "C" Selection status; but this one in my opinion is wide open, and you're better off (if you've got the bankroll) just going "ALL" in and moving on.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Neptune's Storm (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Weekly Call (ML 6-1)
# 4 Farquhar (ML 5-1)
# 9 Knight's Cross (ML 8-1)
# 10 Northwestern (ML 6-1)
# 13 Felix Leiter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Union Station (ML 20-1)
# 5 Speakerofthehouse (ML 8-1)
# 6 Dyf (ML 8-1)
# 8 Leader of Men (ML 10-1)
# 8 Leader of Men (ML 10-1)
# 11 Zorich (ML 12-1)
# 12 Red Valor (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 7 Salah (ML 12-1); bring in the Also Eligible, # 13 Felix Leiter (ML 6-1)
Neptune's Storm tries two turns for the second time; runners for Trainer Billy Morey tend to improve when doing such. Weekly Call took the Place at this approximate class level last time out. Farquhar could improve with the change in barn.
Knight's Cross deserves another chance with the hood in place. Northwestern and Felix Leiter are two debut runners that should do well on the turf. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 3 with 1,3 with 6,11 with 1,4,8 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,10 with 2,3,4,9,10,13 $100.80
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,14 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $2.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,12,13,14 with 1 with 8 with 2 $2.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 3,5,6,7,9,10 with 8 with 2 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 1,5,9 with 2 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 3 with 3 with 11 with 1 with 8 with 1,5,6,8,11,12 $1.20
Total: $110.80
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:20 EST / 1:20 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 3, 2018
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The BC Mile - # 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Final Odds 5.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 11 Monomoy Girl (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 2 Enable (GB) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 14 Accelerate (2.70*) - "B" Selection
Both Monomy Girl and Enable (GB) made me look foolish while winning, as either or both of them really should have been big ticket singles. And as it turned out, the combination of using all non-big ticket runners as backup "C" Selections in the final leg meant that I could have singled anybody in that race as well, and still have collected while spending much less on my play. But all that is just twenty-twenty hindsight voicing its observations; as the bottom line is the bottom line, and despite the mistakes I still cash instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other thirteen runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (14.50) - $375.90 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Roaring Lion (19.70) - $513.35 Finish: 14th
# 3 Catholic Boy (5.10) - $170.85 Finish: 13th
# 4 Gunnevera (30.80) - $943.95 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Lone Sailor (90.90) - $4,948.10 Finish: 6th
# 6 McKinzie (3.90) - $126.80 Finish: 12th
# 7 West Coast (6.60) - $177.65 Finish: 7th
# 8 Pavel (39.70) - $1,341.35 Finish: 10th
# 9 Mendelssohn (13.30) - $494.65 Finish: 5th
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (14.50) - $375.25 Finish: 4th
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (9.10) - $257.90 Finish: 11th
# 12 Axelrod (51.70) - $1,143.00 Finish: 9th
# 13 Discreet Lover (53.30) - $2,588.60 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 11 / 2 / 14 which paid $157.95 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $38.95 on my initial $119.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.33-1. Which may not be much; but believe me, it sure beats not cashing at all.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 11 Monomoy Girl (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 2 Enable (GB) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 14 Accelerate (2.70*) - "B" Selection
Both Monomy Girl and Enable (GB) made me look foolish while winning, as either or both of them really should have been big ticket singles. And as it turned out, the combination of using all non-big ticket runners as backup "C" Selections in the final leg meant that I could have singled anybody in that race as well, and still have collected while spending much less on my play. But all that is just twenty-twenty hindsight voicing its observations; as the bottom line is the bottom line, and despite the mistakes I still cash instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other thirteen runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (14.50) - $375.90 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Roaring Lion (19.70) - $513.35 Finish: 14th
# 3 Catholic Boy (5.10) - $170.85 Finish: 13th
# 4 Gunnevera (30.80) - $943.95 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Lone Sailor (90.90) - $4,948.10 Finish: 6th
# 6 McKinzie (3.90) - $126.80 Finish: 12th
# 7 West Coast (6.60) - $177.65 Finish: 7th
# 8 Pavel (39.70) - $1,341.35 Finish: 10th
# 9 Mendelssohn (13.30) - $494.65 Finish: 5th
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (14.50) - $375.25 Finish: 4th
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (9.10) - $257.90 Finish: 11th
# 12 Axelrod (51.70) - $1,143.00 Finish: 9th
# 13 Discreet Lover (53.30) - $2,588.60 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 11 / 2 / 14 which paid $157.95 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $38.95 on my initial $119.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.33-1. Which may not be much; but believe me, it sure beats not cashing at all.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Results
Race 4 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 9 Stormy Liberal (Final Odds 7.00) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - The BC Dirt Mile - # 1 City of Light (2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Roy H (2.70) - "B" Selection
Stormy Liberal's victory in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was close enough that it'll be awhile before I can complain about losing a photo again. Also, for those who wonder, this is why I prefer to play the Crist method in a modified fashion; because without combining all my "A" Selections with all my "B" Selections, I would have contributed instead of cashed.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Whitmore (6.80) - $657.80 Finish: 2nd
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (4.60) - $545.95 Finish: 4th
# 5 Imperial Hint (1.60*) - $226.15 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Limousine Liberal (4.80) - $519.70 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 6 / 9 which paid $253.25 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.25 on my initial $133.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.90-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Roy H (2.70) - "B" Selection
Stormy Liberal's victory in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was close enough that it'll be awhile before I can complain about losing a photo again. Also, for those who wonder, this is why I prefer to play the Crist method in a modified fashion; because without combining all my "A" Selections with all my "B" Selections, I would have contributed instead of cashed.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Whitmore (6.80) - $657.80 Finish: 2nd
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (4.60) - $545.95 Finish: 4th
# 5 Imperial Hint (1.60*) - $226.15 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Limousine Liberal (4.80) - $519.70 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 6 / 9 which paid $253.25 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.25 on my initial $133.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.90-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Preview
Just to be clear, this is the Pick Four that culminates with The Breeders' Cup Classic, Race 11 on Saturday's program. So with that settled let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1) Bring in the Also Eligibles.
Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg. I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook. For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one. But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.
I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start. Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)
B's
# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out. But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having. And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)
No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices. As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring. Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50
Total: $119.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1) Bring in the Also Eligibles.
Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg. I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook. For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one. But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.
I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start. Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)
B's
# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)
Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out. But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having. And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)
No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices. As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring. Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50
Total: $119.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Preview
There are four, yes four, Pick Four plays being offered at Churchill Downs Saturday for Day 2 of the 2018 Breeders' Cup. This preview is for for the second of the four; the one beginning with Race 4, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Hopefully very soon I'll be posting a preview for the Pick 4 which culminates with the Breeders' Cup Classic. So if all is clear let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.
RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)
C's
RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Ruby Notion (ML 20-1)
# 2 Bucchero (ML 10-1)
# 3 Hembreee (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vision Perfect (ML 15-1)
# 6 Rainbow Heir (ML 12-1)
# 8 Chanteline (ML 15-1)
# 11 World of Trouble (ML 6-1)
# 12 Richard's Boy (ML 12-1)
# 13 Will Call (ML 20-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Insta Erma (ML 30-1)
Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar. Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California. Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class. Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.
Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar. Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California. Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class. Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.
RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Catalina Cruiser (ML 8-5)
B's
# 1 City of Light (ML 5-2)
# 6 Seeking the Soul (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Trigger Warning (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)
# 4 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)
# 9 Giant Expectations (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Awesome Slew (ML 15-1)
This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.
Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light. Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.
This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.
Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light. Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wild Illusion (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 10 Magic Wand (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 14 Eziyra (Ire) (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Fourstar Crook (ML 5-1)
# 2 Thais (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)
# 9 Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 10-1)
Like the Turf Sprint above, this event will be a half furlong longer than it was when it was run last year at Del Mar.
Believe it or not, Sistercharlie (Ire), the Morning Line Favorite, was the one that I came closest to leaving off the big ticket. Sistercharlie has certainly done nothing wrong in her career; but I'm just not sure that she can handle this level of competition. As you can see, I ultimately decided to place her on the big ticket; we'll just have to wait and see if that was the right move. Note that this is the only leg of this sequence where the rest of the field is not being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Limousine Liberal (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Whitmore (ML 6-1)
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (ML 6-1)
# 5 Imperial Hint (ML 9-5)
# 9 Roy H (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 B Squared (ML 20-1)
# 4 Warrior's Club (ML 15-1)
# 6 Always Sunshine (ML 20-1)
# 7 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)
Limousine Liberal is a Lifetime six-for-eight over this main track, which is why he tops my selections for this contest. Had I been able to find a single in any one of the three prior events, I would be going "ALL" in for this leg. Instead, I settled for using everyone not on the big ticket as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,6,10 with 3,6,10,14 with 1,2,5,8,9 $120.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 8 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,4,7,8,9 with 3 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 1,2,4,9 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 3,4,6,7 $2.00
Total: $133.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 12:38 EDT / 9:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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