Race 9 - The Miss America (Division 2) - # 4 Psycho Sister (Final Odds 1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Bear Fan - # 5 The Spiral Jetter (8.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Wish You Were Mine (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 3 Gleefuly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Pretty much a meh day. I was able to get a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection home; and my suggestion to go "ALL" in The Bear Fan looks like pretty good advice in light of the result. But using six of the nine runners in the Miss America just to watch the 11-10 Post Time Favorite win for fun is generally not considered good handicapping; and the second time starter that won the nightcap certainly deserved greater consideration than that which I gave her.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 6 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $311.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 8, 2018
12/8/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
The Southern California thoroughbred racing circuit moves on to Los Alamitos this week, where the minimum wager for Pick Fours remains a dollar; double that which my budget can afford. Therefore, my action moves upstate to Golden Gate, where, for the second week in a row, I find myself playing a track that is having a closing weekend for its Fall Meet. In addition, the final four races on the Golden Gate program have been carded for distaff runners; that should help keep things interesting. Finally, some late information: all grass races have been moved to the main track. So with all that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 9 - (F) Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Division 2) (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 8 Bella Luma (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 2 Impasse (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fizzy Friday (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
Bella Luma closed well in the Grade 3 Berkley over this main track last time out, and there should be enough pace for her to chase Saturday; with Psycho Sister probably being the speed of the speed. The other big ticket selections are out of town shippers who all look well meant here; while the backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) [S] The Bear Fan $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Isa Firecracker (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Spring Heat (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bako Sweets (ML 10-1)
# 10 Impecunious (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Meet Miss Kitty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)
# 5 The Spiral Jetter (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bezzy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Helen's Tiger (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Queen Bee to You (ML 9-2) and # 11 Claudia Mae (ML 8-1)
Many of the entrants here are often found competing in allowance races at this track, where they tend to take turns defeating each other. So if you have a sizable budget, you may want to give strong consideration to just going "ALL" in this leg. In my opinion, Isa Firecracker looks best here, especially since she won't be running on a Fast dirt track. But if Isa Firecracker turns out to be a dud, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, where you could catch a nice price.
RACE 11 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 6 Wish You Were Mine (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Our Slick Chick (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Sophia Del Sol (ML 10-1)
# 2 Oursensationalgirl (ML 2-1)
# 3 Cattering (ML 6-1)
# 5 Senorita Cometa (ML 20-1)
# 7 Another Redhead (ML 20-1)
# 8 Red Glitter (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Wahine (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total. For the record, Sophia Del Sol, Senorita Cometa, Wish You Were Mine, and Wicked Wahine are the four runners in this field with only one lifetime Win.
Wish You Were Mine and Our Slick Chick are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; look for Our Slick Chick early and Wish You Were Mine late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Plum Wild (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 May Song (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 9 - (F) Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic (Division 2) (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 8 Bella Luma (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 1 Bernina Star (ML 6-1)
# 2 Impasse (ML 10-1)
# 3 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 4 Pyscho Sister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fizzy Friday (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 6 Blazinbeauty (ML 20-1)
# 7 Music Babe (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 20-1)
# 7 Music Babe (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 20-1)
Bella Luma closed well in the Grade 3 Berkley over this main track last time out, and there should be enough pace for her to chase Saturday; with Psycho Sister probably being the speed of the speed. The other big ticket selections are out of town shippers who all look well meant here; while the backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) [S] The Bear Fan $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Isa Firecracker (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Spring Heat (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bako Sweets (ML 10-1)
# 10 Impecunious (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Meet Miss Kitty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)
# 5 The Spiral Jetter (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bezzy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Helen's Tiger (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 8 Queen Bee to You (ML 9-2) and # 11 Claudia Mae (ML 8-1)
Many of the entrants here are often found competing in allowance races at this track, where they tend to take turns defeating each other. So if you have a sizable budget, you may want to give strong consideration to just going "ALL" in this leg. In my opinion, Isa Firecracker looks best here, especially since she won't be running on a Fast dirt track. But if Isa Firecracker turns out to be a dud, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, where you could catch a nice price.
RACE 11 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for Turf)
A’s
# 6 Wish You Were Mine (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Our Slick Chick (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Sophia Del Sol (ML 10-1)
# 2 Oursensationalgirl (ML 2-1)
# 3 Cattering (ML 6-1)
# 5 Senorita Cometa (ML 20-1)
# 7 Another Redhead (ML 20-1)
# 8 Red Glitter (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Wahine (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 15-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total. For the record, Sophia Del Sol, Senorita Cometa, Wish You Were Mine, and Wicked Wahine are the four runners in this field with only one lifetime Win.
Wish You Were Mine and Our Slick Chick are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; look for Our Slick Chick early and Wish You Were Mine late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Plum Wild (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 May Song (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Callmejessiejames (ML 8-1)
# 2 Alpine Strawberry (ML 20-1)
# 3 Gleefully (ML 9-2)
# 4 Secretly Paranoide (ML 10-1)
# 5 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 6 Listen to Blue (ML 20-1)
# 7 Scott's Best Beth (ML 10-1)
# 8 Gothic Girl (ML 8-1)
# 2 Alpine Strawberry (ML 20-1)
# 3 Gleefully (ML 9-2)
# 4 Secretly Paranoide (ML 10-1)
# 5 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 6 Listen to Blue (ML 20-1)
# 7 Scott's Best Beth (ML 10-1)
# 8 Gothic Girl (ML 8-1)
Plum Wild has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two career starts at this class level. May Song showed good early speed in her debut last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 2,3,9,10 with 4,6 with 9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7,9 with 3 with 6 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,9 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $4.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:45 EST / 3:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, December 2, 2018
12/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Kate's Princess (Final Odds 5.50) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 13 Uni (GB) (5.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Calexman (8.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Loomis (7.60) - "B" Selection
In the nightcap my "A" Selection # 11 Mobou (2.90) was certainly game, as he fought for the lead and then desperately tried to hold on; but unfortunately the wire didn't arrive in time, and Mobou was just a half length too late to allow me to collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 11 Mobou (2.90) - $1,605.70 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 13 / 4 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $3,845.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Sunday is closing day for the Fall Meet at Del Mar, with the Grade 1 Matriarch serving as the featured race. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as well as a pair of contests for juvenile non-Winners of One, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Kate's Princess (Morning Line 5-1)
B's
# 2 Don'tbeboisterous (ML 7-2)
# 5 Lucky Lately (ML 6-1)
# 7 Adorably Sweet (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Twirling Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 3 Sierra Sunrise (ML 8-1)
# 6 She's a Brewer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Comegowithme (ML 8-1)
# 9 Dr Wysong (ML 12-1)
# 10 Daddys Real Diva (ML 20-1)
Kate's Princess ran well in her debut once she realized there was a race going on and she was in it. Don'tbeboisterous could improve with the return to one turn racing on the dirt.
Lucky Lately and Adorably Sweet are a pair of first time starters that have been working well for this event. Trainer Phil D'Amato has a pair of first time starters (She's a Brewer and Dr Wysong) that I may later regret not using on the big ticket. But I just didn't like their workouts enough to use those two on the main ticket, so on they go with the rest of the field into the backup "C" Selection file.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 13 Uni (GB) (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Vasilika (ML 7-2)
# 12 Dona Bruja (Arg) (ML 8-1)
# 14 Rymska (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Excellent Sunset (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 2 Valadorna (ML 15-1)
# 3 Fahan Mura (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 20-1)
# 5 Quidura (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 20-1)
# 8 Insta Irma (ML 12-1)
# 10 Mission Impassible (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Luminoso (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 20-1)
This contest drew quite well in terms of quality as well as quantity, as you will note that I have relegated some very fine runners to backup "C" Selection status. But ultimately I decided to limit the big ticket selections to those few that I think will be running best late, as this field has no shortage of early speed. Were I to go deeper on the big ticket, I would move Quidora (GB) and/or Mission Impassible (Ire) up to "B" status; but I think I've got this one right.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Red Lightning (ML 7-2)
# 5 Greyvitos (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Apalachee Bay (ML 10-1)
# 3 Captain Scotty (ML 2-1)
# 4 Calexman (ML 8-1)
# 6 Street Vision (ML 20-1)
Lord Simba returns from a fifteen month layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert; and if Lord Simba is back to the form the he showed last year, then Lord Simba could win for fun here. However, if Lord Simba isn't quite in top form, then I see this contest as either Red Lightning early or Greyvitos late. Just in case, all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Mobo (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Loomis (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 5-1)
# 12 Jefe (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Autumn Isabella (ML 30-1)
# 5 Felix Leiter (ML 8-1)
# 6 Leader of Men (ML 8-1)
# 9 Noble Nebraskan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Mystical Moon (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Emotional Wreck (ML 30-1), # 7 Caecilius (ML 12-1); # 8 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)
Mobou tries the turf as well as two turn racing for the first time Sunday; Mobou's breeding suggests that he'll do just fine with both. Loomis projects to be running well late if he doesn't get trapped on the inside. Speakerofthehouse closed well to take the Place at this class level last time out.
Jefe is trying grass for the first time; if Jefe can bring his main track form to the turf then he will certainly contend here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,7 with 9,12,13,14 with 2,5,7 with 1,4,11,12 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10,11 with 7 with 11 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 1,3,4,6 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 2,5,6,9,10 $2.50
Total: $109.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Kate's Princess (Morning Line 5-1)
B's
# 2 Don'tbeboisterous (ML 7-2)
# 5 Lucky Lately (ML 6-1)
# 7 Adorably Sweet (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Twirling Diamond (ML 6-1)
# 3 Sierra Sunrise (ML 8-1)
# 6 She's a Brewer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Comegowithme (ML 8-1)
# 9 Dr Wysong (ML 12-1)
# 10 Daddys Real Diva (ML 20-1)
Kate's Princess ran well in her debut once she realized there was a race going on and she was in it. Don'tbeboisterous could improve with the return to one turn racing on the dirt.
Lucky Lately and Adorably Sweet are a pair of first time starters that have been working well for this event. Trainer Phil D'Amato has a pair of first time starters (She's a Brewer and Dr Wysong) that I may later regret not using on the big ticket. But I just didn't like their workouts enough to use those two on the main ticket, so on they go with the rest of the field into the backup "C" Selection file.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 13 Uni (GB) (ML 9-2)
B's
# 9 Vasilika (ML 7-2)
# 12 Dona Bruja (Arg) (ML 8-1)
# 14 Rymska (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Excellent Sunset (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 2 Valadorna (ML 15-1)
# 3 Fahan Mura (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 20-1)
# 5 Quidura (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 20-1)
# 8 Insta Irma (ML 12-1)
# 10 Mission Impassible (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 11 Luminoso (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 20-1)
This contest drew quite well in terms of quality as well as quantity, as you will note that I have relegated some very fine runners to backup "C" Selection status. But ultimately I decided to limit the big ticket selections to those few that I think will be running best late, as this field has no shortage of early speed. Were I to go deeper on the big ticket, I would move Quidora (GB) and/or Mission Impassible (Ire) up to "B" status; but I think I've got this one right.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Red Lightning (ML 7-2)
# 5 Greyvitos (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Apalachee Bay (ML 10-1)
# 3 Captain Scotty (ML 2-1)
# 4 Calexman (ML 8-1)
# 6 Street Vision (ML 20-1)
Lord Simba returns from a fifteen month layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert; and if Lord Simba is back to the form the he showed last year, then Lord Simba could win for fun here. However, if Lord Simba isn't quite in top form, then I see this contest as either Red Lightning early or Greyvitos late. Just in case, all others are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Mobo (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Loomis (ML 8-1)
# 4 Speakerofthehouse (ML 5-1)
# 12 Jefe (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Autumn Isabella (ML 30-1)
# 5 Felix Leiter (ML 8-1)
# 6 Leader of Men (ML 8-1)
# 9 Noble Nebraskan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Mystical Moon (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Emotional Wreck (ML 30-1), # 7 Caecilius (ML 12-1); # 8 Silent Musketier (ML 30-1)
Mobou tries the turf as well as two turn racing for the first time Sunday; Mobou's breeding suggests that he'll do just fine with both. Loomis projects to be running well late if he doesn't get trapped on the inside. Speakerofthehouse closed well to take the Place at this class level last time out.
Jefe is trying grass for the first time; if Jefe can bring his main track form to the turf then he will certainly contend here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,7 with 9,12,13,14 with 2,5,7 with 1,4,11,12 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10,11 with 7 with 11 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 1,3,4,6 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 13 with 7 with 2,5,6,9,10 $2.50
Total: $109.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 1, 2018
12/1/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Sauce On Side (Final Odds 2.90) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Kingly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Super Patriot (7.00) - "B" Selection
Sometimes you know right away when it's not going to be your day. So it was Saturday in the opening leg of the sequence, when all three of my big ticket selections managed to avoid finishing in the Superfecta. That outcome, combined with each of my "A" Selections avoiding the winner's circle, made it a day to just say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $215.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Kingly (4.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Super Patriot (7.00) - "B" Selection
Sometimes you know right away when it's not going to be your day. So it was Saturday in the opening leg of the sequence, when all three of my big ticket selections managed to avoid finishing in the Superfecta. That outcome, combined with each of my "A" Selections avoiding the winner's circle, made it a day to just say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 6 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $215.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
12/1/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Welcome to December! And also welcome to closing weekend for Del Mar's Fall meet, which means that Saturday's featured race is the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mongolian Humor (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 7 Gypsy Blu (ML 8-1)
# 8 Vallestina (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Sauce On Side (ML 3-1)
# 3 Pied N True (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tapitha Bonita (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tiz Toffee (ML 5-2)
# 6 Tiz Wonderfully (ML 12-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career; a factoid which, unfortunately, is not included in most past performances. The absence of this information is especially unfortunate because we're more accustomed to seeing these races in California carded for non-Winners of Two, rather than this contest, which is for non-Winners of Three. And while we're on the subject of the conditions for this race, note that three entrants (Sauce On Side, Tiz Toffee, and Tiz Wonderfully) are racing above their conditions, as those three have only one career victory apiece.
Mongolian Humor was a open length winner last time out, and could benefit from the return to one turn racing. Gypsy Blu returns to the main track where she won her debut. Vallestina could improve with a return to the dirt. The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Have At It (ML 6-1)
# 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Carrick (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Risky Proposition (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 7 Instilled Regard (ML 12-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Way Early (ML 30-1)
# 12 Pubilius Syrus (ML 30-1)
# 13 Prince Earl (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 14 Californiagoldrush (ML 12-1)
River Boyne (Ire), Have At It, and Desert Stone (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in November's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. Raging Bull picked up a couple of Graded Stakes victories at Saratoga this Summer, and could benefit from the freshening. Carrick, winner of the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park, may have found the course too soft last time out; and while the grass in Del Mar probably won't be firm Saturday, the turf condition should be no worse than Good. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Stretford End (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mongolian Humor (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 7 Gypsy Blu (ML 8-1)
# 8 Vallestina (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Sauce On Side (ML 3-1)
# 3 Pied N True (ML 12-1)
# 4 Tapitha Bonita (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tiz Toffee (ML 5-2)
# 6 Tiz Wonderfully (ML 12-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career; a factoid which, unfortunately, is not included in most past performances. The absence of this information is especially unfortunate because we're more accustomed to seeing these races in California carded for non-Winners of Two, rather than this contest, which is for non-Winners of Three. And while we're on the subject of the conditions for this race, note that three entrants (Sauce On Side, Tiz Toffee, and Tiz Wonderfully) are racing above their conditions, as those three have only one career victory apiece.
Mongolian Humor was a open length winner last time out, and could benefit from the return to one turn racing. Gypsy Blu returns to the main track where she won her debut. Vallestina could improve with a return to the dirt. The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Have At It (ML 6-1)
# 6 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Carrick (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Kazan (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Risky Proposition (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 7 Instilled Regard (ML 12-1)
# 9 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Way Early (ML 30-1)
# 12 Pubilius Syrus (ML 30-1)
# 13 Prince Earl (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 14 Californiagoldrush (ML 12-1)
River Boyne (Ire), Have At It, and Desert Stone (Ire) filled out the Trifecta in November's Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. Raging Bull picked up a couple of Graded Stakes victories at Saratoga this Summer, and could benefit from the freshening. Carrick, winner of the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington Park, may have found the course too soft last time out; and while the grass in Del Mar probably won't be firm Saturday, the turf condition should be no worse than Good. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Stretford End (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Nolo Contesto (ML 9-2)
# 2 Green Fleet (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mutineer (ML 20-1)
# 4 Kingly (ML 3-1)
# 3 Mutineer (ML 20-1)
# 4 Kingly (ML 3-1)
# 5 Mo Reserve (ML 6-1)
# 6 My Mandate (ML 12-1)
# 7 American Camp (ML 8-1)
# 9 Moonoverthebayou (ML 20-1)
# 10 Nolde (ML 20-1)
# 7 American Camp (ML 8-1)
# 9 Moonoverthebayou (ML 20-1)
# 10 Nolde (ML 20-1)
Seven of the ten entrants in this contest are debut runners; and it would be very helpful to know how the public will be wagering on those runners. But, of course, that is unknowable prior to placing wagers for this multi-race sequence. Some of the first time starters here certainly deserve consideration; for example, both Bob Baffert trained runners look good; Trainer Phil D'Amato's Mo Reserve certainly looks like he will run well; and the Bob Hess Jr trained American Camp had a nice sharp work Monday.
But ultimately I decided to make Stretford End, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, a big ticket single. Those of you with larger budgets may decide to include one of the aforementioned first timers, or even perhaps one or more that I didn't mention, in your play. But I felt that it was more important to spread in the two turf contests that are a part of this sequence; and for that reason only one in this race goes on the big ticket, while everyone else gets used as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Marjorie E (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Speakers (ML 8-1)
# 3 Drop the Mic (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sapphire Kid (ML 6-1)
# 8 Absolutely Perfect (ML 6-1)
# 10 Thalia (ML 9-2)
# 11 Super Patriot (ML 6-1)
# 11 Super Patriot (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Quinnie (ML 10-1)
# 6 Tenthousandreasons (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kenndie Sky (ML 20-1)
# 6 Tenthousandreasons (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kenndie Sky (ML 20-1)
# 9 Emmy and I (ML 12-1)
Sapphire Kid and Marjorie E filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Of the two, I give the edge to Marjorie E due to her two prior Wins over this turf course.
Speakers goes first off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who tends to do well with such. Drop the Mic and Absolutely Perfect both graduated last time out, and could upset a field filled with runners who tend to hit the board while avoiding the winner's circle. Thalia could move up with the return to turf. Super Patriot could improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,4,6,8,11 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,8,10,11 $52.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6 with 4 with 8 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,3,5,7,9,10,12,13 with 8 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 8 with 5,6,7,9 $2.00
Total: $66.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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