9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Turf Sprint - # 10 Totally Boss (Final Odds 4.40) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Ladies Turf - # 9 Ms Bad Behavior (7.30) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Ladies Sprint - # 7 Morticia (5.00) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup - # 9 Zulu Alpha (2.10) - "B" Selection

Turf racing in general tends to be more difficult to handicap than thoroughbreds on the dirt.  Boutique meets are always difficult; and the unique layout of the Kentucky Downs turf course makes handicapping there even more of a challenge.  So with all those obstacles standing in the way of victory, it's very tempting to claim that superior handicapping skill was what led to Saturday's favorable result.

But, truth be told, a lot of luck and good fortune was behind Saturday's win; as the first three victors in the sequence simply rode a early speed bias, while the featured final race was perhaps the most formfully run contest on the afternoon.  But no matter; be it good handicapping or good luck, the bottom line is that Saturday was a day for me to cash instead of contribute.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 10 Arklow (1.60*) - $588.80 Finish: 2nd

# 11 Campaign (4.20) - $834.50 Finish: 3rd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 9 / 7 / 9  which paid $431.95 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $298.45 on my initial $133.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.235-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

The thoroughbred horse racing circuit in Southern California moves onto Los Alamitos Race Course; where, courtesy of their one dollar minimum Pick Fours, I am priced out of the game.  So my action moves elsewhere; and for those of you who like to look ahead, good Lord willing next week will see me playing Remington Park in Oklahoma City.  As for today, what better spot to play than the track less than an hour away from Music City; especially on Kentucky Turf Cup Day, where the final four contests on the card are all Graded Stakes.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky.

RACE 7 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Stormy Liberal (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 3 Imprimis (ML 4-1)
# 8 Leinster (ML 3-1)
# 10 Totally Boss (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Wet Your Whistle (ML 8-1)
# 2 Cautious Giant (ML 15-1)
# 4 Smart Remark (ML 20-1)
# 5 Undrafted (ML 10-1)
# 6 White Flag (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jazzy Times (ML 15-1)

Stormy Liberal, Show runner in the Grade 3 Green Flash at Del Mar last time out, could move up with the increase in real estate.  Imprimis may need a race upon his return from Ascot; but Imprimis certainly has the class to win here.

Leinster and Totally Boss are both trained by Rusty Arnold; and as both are coming off solid stakes victories last time out, I see no reason to try to choose between the two.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Ladies Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Simply Breathless (GB) (ML 5-1)

B's

# 5 Storm the Hill (ML 3-1)
# 7 Mitchell Road (ML 5-2)
# 9 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Kallio (ML 10-1)
# 4 Viva Vegas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sensitive (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Coachwhip (ML 20-1)

Simply Breathless (GB) found nine and a half furlongs a distance too far last time out in the Grade 3 Modesty; but she still hung on for the Show.  I expect Simply Breathless to be much improved today with the reduction in real estate.  Storm the Hill, Show runner behind Simply Breathless in the Grade 3 Wilshire back in June, could turn the tables on that rival, as Storm the Hill may not have been in top form for the Wilshire, coming as she was off a half-year layoff.

Mitchell Road can have her last outing forgiven as she was simply out classed.  Ms Bad Behavior is another whose form is much improved by ignoring her most recent start.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Ladies Sprint (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 6 Painting Corners (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Morticia (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cool Beans (ML 10-1)
# 10 Ruby Notion (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Raven's Lady (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Pastime (ML 20-1)
# 4 A Little Bit Me (ML 10-1)
# 5 Coexistence (ML 15-1)
# 9 Tiny Tina (ML 10-1)
# 11 Stillwater Cove (ML 20-1)
# 12 May Lily (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 La Dame Blanche (ML 20-1); # 14 Therighttobeararms (ML 50-1); # 15 She's All Skeet (ML 30-1)

Painting Corners appears to be entering this contest in top form; and Painting Corners has run well at this distance in the past.  Oleksandra (Aus) enters this contest having won three of her last four starts; and Oleksandra looks well meant here.

Morticia has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of her last eight starts; but Morticia is just too classy to not use on the main ticket.  Cool Beans looks outclassed here; but Cool Beans could benefit from the cutback in distance, and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Brad Cox / Florent Geroux is doing too well to ignore.

Ruby Notion won last year's running of this contest; though if one was looking to save some coin by dropping her from the main ticket, such a decision could be justified by Ruby Notion having finished behind Oleksandra in each of her last two starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A's

# 10 Arklow (ML 5-2)

B's

# 9 Zulu Alpha (ML 9-2)
# 11 Campaign (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Bostwana (ML 20-1)
# 2 My Boy Jack (ML 12-1)
# 3 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)
# 4 Gliding Alone (ML 50-1)
# 6 Factor This (ML 12-1)
# 7 Pillar Mountain (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 8 Hello Don Julio (ML 15-1)
# 12 Noble Thought (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Bigger Picture (ML 8-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Golden Dragon (ML 50-1) and # 14 Zero Gravity (ML 30-1)

Arklow, winner of last year's running of this event, is Graded Stakes placed in each of his last three starts, crossing under the wire less than a length behind the winner in each contest.  Zulu Alpha was less than a length away from Arklow at the wire last time out, and Zulu Alpha missed victory in the Grade 1 United Nations by just a neck two starts back.

Campaign has won both times that he's competed over this turf course; so Campaign is definitely not disadvantaged by the change in surface.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,8,9,10 with 2,5,7,9 with 3,6,7,8,10 with 9,10,11 $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,6,8 with 6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,9,11,12 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,12 $4.00

Total: $133.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:53 EDT / 1:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/31/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The John C Mabee - # 1 Vasilika (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 American Theorem (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Debutante - # 5 Bast (2.80) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 2 Jamming Eddy (3.20) - "A" Selection

So for the second week in a row I needlessly doubled the cost of my main ticket.  I also went "ALL" in the nightcap just to watch my "A" Selection win by daylight.  Such mistakes are not easily overcome; and therefore I find myself with tickets having three of the four winners, meaning that I once again contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 5 / 5 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $118.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/31/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Follow your passion, be prepared to work hard and sacrifice, and, above all, don’t let anyone limit your dreams.” - Donovan Bailey

It's Labor Day weekend in the USA, and concurrent with this three day celebration comes the final weekend of the Summer Del Mar meet.  To help celebrate the occasion the good folks in Southern California have written a card with two Graded Stakes, both of which can be found in the final four contests on the program.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) The John C Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Vasilika (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

# 10 Meal Ticket (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Paved (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Toinette (ML 3-1)
# 5 Ahimsa (ML 8-1)
# 6 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 30-1)
# 7 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Quebec (ML 15-1)
# 9 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Vasilika looks best here; but then, Vasilika always looks best.  And for good reason: because she usually is best, including when she won last year's running of this event.  So Vasilika should probably be a single here; but, for the second week in a row, I'm doubling the cost of my main ticket by adding another runner to the big Favorite in the Grade 2 contest in the sequence.

As can be seen above, the "B" Selection that I'm pairing up with Vasilika on the main ticket is Meal Ticket.  While Meal Ticket has been defeated multiple times in the past by Vasilika, Meal Ticket has shown an affinity for this turf course; and Meal Ticket is a proven winner at Saturday's distance.  In addition, Meal Ticket is most likely going to leave the gate as the longest shot on the board.

So, in what will quite probably be proven to be a foolish decision when this race is run, I will be going two deep in this leg, slotting the rest of the field into place as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Backshot (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Zimba Warrior (ML 12-1)
# 6 Hydrogen (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Thunder Code (ML 20-1)
# 4 Honor Among Men (ML 8-1)
# 5 American Theorem (ML 3-1)
# 7 Three Footer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Whirl Candy (ML 7-2)
# 9 Big Hoof Dynamite (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles, with only two experienced runners in the field: Zimba Warrior and Hydrogen, who both took the Show at this class level (in separate contests) in their respective debuts.  Backshot, like Hydrogen, is trained by Bob Baffert; and Backshot looks best among the first timers.  Indeed, Backshot has been working well enough that I believe that he is the most likely winner in this field.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Inspiressa (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Comical (ML 12-1)
# 4 Leucothea (ML 3-1)
# 5 Bast (ML 7-2)
# 6 Powerfulattraction (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Pure Xena (ML 6-1)
# 8 Stellar Sound (ML 6-1)

Inspiressa and Bast filled out the Exacta in their respective debuts on August 11.  Comical is the only runner here to have defeated winners, doing so in the Grade 3 Schuylerville at Saratoga.

Trainer Peter Miller had to drop Leucothea in for a tag in order for her to graduate; but Leucothea won so convincingly that it seems fair to presume that she can compete with these.  Powerfulattraction took the Place in the Grade 2 Sorrento last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Jamming Eddy (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Loaded Joe (ML 4-1)
# 3 Play Money (ML 5-1)
# 5 Fredikstad (ML 8-1)
# 8 No Parking Here (ML 12-1)
# 9 Bud Knight (ML 12-1)
# 10 Fravel (ML 3-1)
# 11 Cool Your Jets (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Endless Tale (No Line); # 6 Watch the Dip (ML 15-1); and # 7 Cafe Clara (ML 20-1)

Yeah, I'm going "ALL" here.  Probably not the wisest of moves; but if by some miracle I get Meal Ticket home, and guess right in both juvenile contests, I deserve to collect.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 7 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 1,3,6 with 2,4,5,6,7 with ALL $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3 with 7 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,5,7,8,9 with 7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,8 with 2 $1.50

Total: $129.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:15 EDT / 5:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/24/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 7 Greg's Diva (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 5 Fashionably Fast (6.10) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 7 Catalina Cruiser (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 2 M Town Gem (15.80) - "C" Selection

The Pat O'Brien saw an epic throw down between Catalina Cruiser and # 4 Great Expectations (3.90), with the Favorite needing to give all that he had to get under the wire just a head in front.  So, on the one hand, I was correct in my prediction that Great Expectations would "give Catalina Cruiser a serious run for his money."  But on the other hand, the odds on favorite did win, meaning I could have significantly cut the cost of my play by making Catalina Cruiser a big ticket single.

The nightcap saw another tight finish, with just a head separating the top three finishers.  So change the results of the second half of the sequence by a head each and this could have been a profitable day; but the two heads proved to be too much, making Saturday a day to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:

# 1 Tartini (6.30) - $120.70 Finish: 7th

# 4 Combat Zone (2.50*) - $56.05 Finish: 3rd

# 5 River God (7.60) - $145.55 Finish: 8th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 5 / 7 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $270.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/24/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 Pat O'Brien, named for the famed actor and one of the founding partners of Del Mar Racetrack, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Greg's Diva (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 4 Perfect Rush (ML 6-1)
# 6 Eclair (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Le Tub (ML 20-1)
# 2 Undisturbed (ML 20-1)
# 3 Dipping In (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lovely Lilia (ML 6-1)
# 8 Cherry City (ML 5-1)
# 9 I Give Up (ML 20-1)
# 10 Establish Justice (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Pacific Crossing (ML 10-1)

These are juvenile fillies, with the majority of the field being first time starters; while none of the experienced runners have ever competed on the grass.  So if your budget allows, you might want to give strong consideration to just punching the "ALL" button for this leg.  Or perhaps not.  I'm going to try to get by on the cheap in this contest, hoping that the runners that showed speed on the main track will be able to do so while switching to the turf.

Greg's Diva has taken the Place at this class level in each of her two dirt starts.  Perfect Rush is a debut runner trained by John Sadler, who's been winning most everything here of late.

Eclair, trained by Bob Baffert, showed good early foot in her debut last time out.  Eclair is also shedding the hood; Baffert tends to do well when he takes the blinkers off his runners.  Of course, Baffert tends to do well, period.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 13 Camby (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Coil Me Home (ML 5-1)
# 2 Cool Bobby (ML 7-2)
# 3 Royal Trump (ML 8-1)
# 5 Fashionably Fast (ML 9-2)
# 7 Cruel Intention (ML 3-1)
# 9 Oakland Mills (ML 20-1)

C's

# 6 Posterize (ML 20-1)
# 8 Getaloadofthis (ML 15-1)
# 10 Boogalute (ML 20-1)
# 11 Heartfullofstars (ML 20-1)
# 12 Grinning Tiger (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Candy Cornell (ML 8-1)

For those who like to be kept aware of such things, none of the runners in this field will be leaving the gate with the $40k price tag on their head.  If any were, then they would be running for a purse of $52k, rather than $64k.  But they're not; so they won't.

Camby took the Show at this class level last time out, and Camby's breeding suggests that he could improve with the additional furlong.  Coil Me Home and Cool Bobby are both taking the blinkers off for a pair of trainers (Richard Baltas and Peter Eurton, respectively) whose runners tend to do well when the hood is removed.

Royal Trump, winner of two of his last three, looks capable of handling this step up in class.  Fashionably Fast won by enough last time out to suggest that he can compete against open, rather than just state bred, company.

Cruel Intention, trained by Bob Baffert, could improve going third off the layoff.  Oakland Mills tries winners for the first time after graduating by open lengths last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Catalina Cruiser (ML 4-5)

B's

# 4 Giant Expectations (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Chief Cicatriz (ML 20-1)

# 3 Jalen Journey (ML 5-1)

# 5 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)

# 6 American Anthem (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Lieutenant Dan (ML 20-1)

Those of you who went "ALL" in on the opening leg can save some money here by just singling Catalina Cruiser.  Indeed, Catalina Cruiser, winner of the 2018 running of this event by over seven lengths, and winner of two more Graded Stakes since that contest, looks to be clear best in this field.

But I'm going to double the cost of my main play by adding Giant Expectations to the big ticket.  I think that Giant Expectations is to going to benefit enough from the cutback in distance to give Catalina Cruiser a serious run for his money.  So it's two deep for me in this leg, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 River God (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 1 Tartini (ML 5-1)

# 4  Combat Zone (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)

# 3 Union Ride (ML 20-1)

# 7 Hootie (ML 8-1)

# 8 Storm the Bastille (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Boru (ML 9-2)

# 10 Reedley (ML 8-1)

# 11 Soul Beam (ML 12-1)

# 12 Into a Hot Spot (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Call You Tomorrow (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions.  Each entrant in this field has visited the winner's circle one time, and one time only.

River God took the Place at this class level last time out.  Tartini could move up with the drop in class.  Combat Zone fits well at this level; though it appears that Combat Zone settles for too many minor awards.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 13 with 7 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,13 with 4,7 with 1,4,5 $63.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,8,10,11,12 with 7 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 13 with 2,3,5,6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 13 with 7 with 2,3,7,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:15 EDT / 5:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo