I suppose one longshot claim deserves another: One day after Trainer James Kasparoff purchased Crown Over out of a race at Golden Gate where Crown Over went to post at 32.2-1, Trainer Victor Trujillo plunks down four grand to scoop up City Chapel out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Sunday; a race in which City Chapel ran at Final Odds of 29.8-1.
Like Crown Over, City Chapel is a gelding; so this is not a claim that was made with future breeding prospects in mind. As regards City Chapel's career, he debuted as a two year old in the fourth race at Sacramento on July 16, 2011, finishing dead last at Final Odds of 36.2-1. That race would be the first of City Chapel's fifteen tries at the Maiden Claiming level. City Chapel finally found the winner's circle three months ago, in Race 6 at Golden Gate, paying $10.80. The August 26 contest was his second since that victory, thus giving City Chapel one career win in seventeen tries, with two seconds and two thirds. His career earnings to date are $15,861; an average of less than one thousand per race.
The one thing you can say about a longshot claim is that the new connections think they see something in their new horse that the betting public and the horse's previous connections do not. Only time can tell whether or not that something is real or imagined; but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on to find out. At least, in my humble opinion.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
8/25/12 GG Race 9 - Horse Watch
Crown Over, a four year old gelding by Suggest, began his career in March of 2011 at Golden Gate Fields, debuting in a six furlong Maiden Claimer ($32k-$30k). Crown Over, fourth at the top of the stretch, managed to finish a neck in front of the rest of the field that day at longshot odds, paying $36.40 to win.
Over his next thirteen races, Crown Over would compete without a price tag on his head; he would also fail to win again. But he was always competitive, despite the level. Crown Over took the Place in a first level allowance race; he took the Show in an overnight stakes; he finished in the money in half of the starter allowances in which he ran. In other words, this is a horse that can usually be counted on to run just well enough to lose.
This past Saturday, in the nightcap at Golden Gate, Crown Over, for the first time since his debut, was entered for a tag; and this time, he got picked up. Crown Over now belongs to the barn of James Kasparoff, the former trainer of (among others) Bob Black Jack and Made to Love Her.
Now, a horse getting claimed from a race in which he goes to post at odds of over thirty-to-one certainly gets my attention; especially when it's a gelding, because you know he wasn't bought to be sent to the breeding shed. Therefore, I'm going to keep an eye on Crown Over; at least for his next few starts; not because I expect Kasparoff to suddenly turn this perpetually loser into a winner (though I'm open to the possibility that could happen); but because I think Kasparoff can slot Crown Over back into allowance and overnight stakes company, where he can again hit the board at nice odds to fill out some well paying vertical wagers.
Or so I hope.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Over his next thirteen races, Crown Over would compete without a price tag on his head; he would also fail to win again. But he was always competitive, despite the level. Crown Over took the Place in a first level allowance race; he took the Show in an overnight stakes; he finished in the money in half of the starter allowances in which he ran. In other words, this is a horse that can usually be counted on to run just well enough to lose.
This past Saturday, in the nightcap at Golden Gate, Crown Over, for the first time since his debut, was entered for a tag; and this time, he got picked up. Crown Over now belongs to the barn of James Kasparoff, the former trainer of (among others) Bob Black Jack and Made to Love Her.
Now, a horse getting claimed from a race in which he goes to post at odds of over thirty-to-one certainly gets my attention; especially when it's a gelding, because you know he wasn't bought to be sent to the breeding shed. Therefore, I'm going to keep an eye on Crown Over; at least for his next few starts; not because I expect Kasparoff to suddenly turn this perpetually loser into a winner (though I'm open to the possibility that could happen); but because I think Kasparoff can slot Crown Over back into allowance and overnight stakes company, where he can again hit the board at nice odds to fill out some well paying vertical wagers.
Or so I hope.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 26, 2012
8/26/12 DMR - Race 9 - The Pacific Classic - Results
In my preview of this race (below), I wrote that I didn't think Game On Dude liked the surface of the Del Mar main track. Well, The Dude proved me wrong; very wrong, in fact, as he ran The Pacific Classic Stakes in record breaking time, covering the ten furlongs quicker than Acclamation had in setting the previous track record last year in this event. However, fortunately for me, Game On Dude does not now hold the track record at Del Mar for a mile and a quarter. That honor belongs to Dullahan, who reached the wire a half-length ahead of Game On Dude to win The Pacific Classic, paying $12.60 / $5.20 / $3.40.
So congratulations to Dullahan, who is now three-for-three on artificial surfaces; all three being Grade 1 victories. I would also like to publicly thank Dullahan and his connections for their help in fostering the belief that I do (at least occasionally) know what I'm talking about when it comes to thoroughbreds.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF version of events can be viewed here. DRF also has available online an article by Jay Privman recapping The Pacific Classic, which can be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So congratulations to Dullahan, who is now three-for-three on artificial surfaces; all three being Grade 1 victories. I would also like to publicly thank Dullahan and his connections for their help in fostering the belief that I do (at least occasionally) know what I'm talking about when it comes to thoroughbreds.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF version of events can be viewed here. DRF also has available online an article by Jay Privman recapping The Pacific Classic, which can be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/26/12 DMR - Race 9 - The Pacific Classic - Preview
No time for lengthy analysis, so this will be brief: Richard's Kid (ML 7-2) and Game On Dude (ML 5-2) are the obvious top contenders, and with good reason; but I'm going to try to beat them. I don't think The Dude likes this surface (forget that workout on the 20th; this is a totally different track in the AM hours), and I think he's going to find the front end crowded with Riveting Reason (ML 30-1) and Rail Trip (ML 10-1). Meanwhile, The Kid just might find it difficult getting a clearing from which to close, especially if Jockey Rafael Bejarano forgets that he's a professional, and uses Trainer Bob Baffert's other horse, Jaycito, to get in The Kid's way. Suggestive Boy (Arg) is intriguing; the four year old colt has the Storm Cat genes, so he should take to the plastic; if Trainer Ron McAnally was having a better meet, I may have been tempted to go that route.
But the horse I landed on here is Dullahan (ML 6-1). The Dale Romans trained three year old is two-for-two on make believe dirt, with both victories coming in Grade 1 events. Real dirt is not Dullahan's surface, but he still came within two lengths of winning this year's Kentucky Derby. I'll be looking for him late, and hopefully he won't be too late.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
But the horse I landed on here is Dullahan (ML 6-1). The Dale Romans trained three year old is two-for-two on make believe dirt, with both victories coming in Grade 1 events. Real dirt is not Dullahan's surface, but he still came within two lengths of winning this year's Kentucky Derby. I'll be looking for him late, and hopefully he won't be too late.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, August 23, 2012
8/22 - 8/23/12 DMR - The Crowd Gets It Wrong
Race 1 at Del Mar on August 22 was a Starter Allowance (NW2L) for two year olds that drew what's known in California as a full field of four. Crossing the wire first was the 6-5 favorite Monument, paying $4.40 / $2.60 / $2.00 (sorry, there's no Show wagering in California when only one of the entrants will finish out of the money).
Race 5 at Del Mar on August 23 was a Claiming Race ($10k-$9K) for three year olds and upward run over six and a half furlongs on the it's not really dirt main track. The winner was the 9-5 favorite Celestic Night, paying $5.60 / $3.60 / $2.80.
Between those two events there were eleven races run at Del Mar. And what did they all have in common? Answer: None of them was won by the Post Time favorite. For eleven straight races the public was unable to pick the winner.
Now, if I was better at math, I would tell you the exact probability of the Post Time favorite going on a double digit losing streak. I mean, if you figure that the favorite, on average, wins approximately a third of the time, then it should win approximately three out of every ten races; so for the favorite to go eleven straight races without coming in first should happen only every, um, err....that is, it should occur with a frequency of once out of every, um......hmmm.....well, it just shouldn't happen all that often.
For the record, here are the Post Time favorites for each of the eleven races, and where they finished:
RACE............................FAVORITE..................FINAL ODDS..........FINISH
8/22/12 DMR 2.............Half Dome Dude..............2.4-1.....................Fourth
8/22/12 DMR 3.............Glee (GB).......................2.8-1.....................Seventh
8/22/12 DMR 4.............Bold Agressor.................1.8-1.....................Third
8/22/12 DMR 5.............Toruk Makto...................1.5-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 6.............Budidinha.......................3.5-1......................Fifth
8/22/12 DMR 7.............Maker Or Breaker............1.2-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 8.............Bila Shaka......................3.4-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 1.............Miss Reditore..................1.5-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 2.............God Of War (BRZ)...........1.1-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 3.............Rhodium.........................1.0-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 4.............Missdealornodeal.............2.9-1.....................Second
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 5 at Del Mar on August 23 was a Claiming Race ($10k-$9K) for three year olds and upward run over six and a half furlongs on the it's not really dirt main track. The winner was the 9-5 favorite Celestic Night, paying $5.60 / $3.60 / $2.80.
Between those two events there were eleven races run at Del Mar. And what did they all have in common? Answer: None of them was won by the Post Time favorite. For eleven straight races the public was unable to pick the winner.
Now, if I was better at math, I would tell you the exact probability of the Post Time favorite going on a double digit losing streak. I mean, if you figure that the favorite, on average, wins approximately a third of the time, then it should win approximately three out of every ten races; so for the favorite to go eleven straight races without coming in first should happen only every, um, err....that is, it should occur with a frequency of once out of every, um......hmmm.....well, it just shouldn't happen all that often.
For the record, here are the Post Time favorites for each of the eleven races, and where they finished:
RACE............................FAVORITE..................FINAL ODDS..........FINISH
8/22/12 DMR 2.............Half Dome Dude..............2.4-1.....................Fourth
8/22/12 DMR 3.............Glee (GB).......................2.8-1.....................Seventh
8/22/12 DMR 4.............Bold Agressor.................1.8-1.....................Third
8/22/12 DMR 5.............Toruk Makto...................1.5-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 6.............Budidinha.......................3.5-1......................Fifth
8/22/12 DMR 7.............Maker Or Breaker............1.2-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 8.............Bila Shaka......................3.4-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 1.............Miss Reditore..................1.5-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 2.............God Of War (BRZ)...........1.1-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 3.............Rhodium.........................1.0-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 4.............Missdealornodeal.............2.9-1.....................Second
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 19, 2012
8/19/12 DMR - Results
I wrote that I was playing against Winding Way in the Rancho Bernardo Handicap because "in order to win today, Winding Way is going to have to do something she hasn't yet done: pass another horse." Well, Winding Way didn't pass another horse today; she passed all the horses today. After completely blowing the start, Winding Way was dead last, eight lengths behind the leader at the half. Winding Way then proceeded to come five wide into the stretch, cut off my horse Rumor, and catch Sugarinthemorning near the wire to win by half a length, paying $4.80 / $3.40 / $2.60.
There was a stewards inquiry into the stretch run, but since this is Southern California, there was no change in the result. Which is just as well; because, while I can accept losing because I made a conscious decision to play against Winding Way, I would have been extremely upset at myself for not using a very logical contender in Sugarinthemorning.
Needless to say, after having lost the first leg of the Pick 3, the next two stanzas were victorious without a sweat; as I not only had the winner in each, but the Place horse as well, without any of those four horses being the Post Time favorite. For those who were smart enough to include Winding Way on their tickets, the Pick 3 of Winding Way / Truly Marie / Halo Dolly paid $39.60 for a buck.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those interested can click the links for the Equibase charts of races six, seven, and eight; while those who prefer the DRF version of events can find those here, here, and here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
There was a stewards inquiry into the stretch run, but since this is Southern California, there was no change in the result. Which is just as well; because, while I can accept losing because I made a conscious decision to play against Winding Way, I would have been extremely upset at myself for not using a very logical contender in Sugarinthemorning.
Needless to say, after having lost the first leg of the Pick 3, the next two stanzas were victorious without a sweat; as I not only had the winner in each, but the Place horse as well, without any of those four horses being the Post Time favorite. For those who were smart enough to include Winding Way on their tickets, the Pick 3 of Winding Way / Truly Marie / Halo Dolly paid $39.60 for a buck.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those interested can click the links for the Equibase charts of races six, seven, and eight; while those who prefer the DRF version of events can find those here, here, and here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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