Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

We're almost there!  Just a few more days until the biggest race of the year.  So you all know what that means, right?  Yup; as I promised in my very first post, this blog will now go dark.

Well, maybe not totally dark.  I downloaded the Google blogger app, so if I can get it to work properly, I will take time prior to Saturday's big race to let you know my selection.  I doubt if there'll be a lengthy analysis attached; in fact, odds are there won't be any analysis attached; but at least you'll know where the bulk of my money is going.

At this time (now that Code West is officially out) the only horse I have any rooting interest in is Golden Cents; and that only because I think it would be incredibly cool if a horse I touted right after his debut would go on to win the Kentucky Derby.  But sentiment aside, here're the things I'll be looking for in my Derby selection:

BREEDING:  Can he go the ten furlongs?  Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest.  Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) .  And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.

BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them.  Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.

POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two.  Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.

TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races!  In fact, watch Friday's races as well.  If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.

FINALLY - ENJOY!  This is the biggest race of the year.  Take in all the excitement, and be sure to have some fun; 'cos, like Christmas, it only comes but once a year.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update

Here's something to consider as you pore over your Kentucky Derby Past Performances: how long did it typically take for prior winners of the Derby to break their maidens?  

The chart below is pretty basic: Year / Kentucky Derby Winner / Number of tries needed to obtain their first career victory.  A "1" means that they broke their maiden in their debut; a "2" means that they got their first career win in their second career race; and so on.

2012 - I'll Have Another - 1
2011 - Animal Kingdom - 2
2010 - Super Saver - 2
2009 - Mine That Bird - 2
2008 - Big Brown - 1
2007 - Street Sense - 2
2006 - Barbaro - 1
2005 - Giacomo - 2
2004 - Smarty Jones - 1
2003 - Funny Cide - 1
2002 - War Emblem - 1
2001 - Monarchos - 3
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 2
1999 - Charismatic - 6
1998 - Real Quiet - 7
1997 - Silver Charm - 2
1996 - Grindstone - 1
1995 - Thunder Gulch - 2
1994 - Go For Gin - 3
1993 - Sea Hero - 4
1992 - Lil E. Tee - 2
1991 - Strike the Gold - 3
1990 - Unbridled - 1
1989 - Sunday Silence - 2
1988 - Winning Colors - 1
1987 - Alysheba - 3
1986 - Ferdinand - 4
1985 - Spend a Buck - 1
1984 - Swale - 2
1983 - Sunny's Halo - 1

Debut Winners - 11
Second Attempt - 11
Third Try - 4
Fourth Attempt - 2
Sixth Attempt - 1
Seventh Attempt - 1

Twenty-two of the last thirty Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden in either their debut or their second career race, with an even split of eleven horses falling into each category.  Four others needed three tries to garner their first victory, and another pair needed four attempts to get off the schneid.  Charismatic made five fruitless attempts at winning before taking the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in his sixth career start in order to get his first victory; while Real Quiet didn't make it to the Winner's Circle until his seventh career race (though two of those seven races were competitions against winners, rather than fellow maidens).

So while not a hard and fast rule, it seems clear that the Run for the Roses is usually won by a horse that figures out early that the goal is to finish ahead of the pack; not with the pack.  On the other hand, the two horses in the above list who took the longest to break their maidens are also two that would go on to win the Preakness and come tantalizingly close to being Triple Crown winners.

So make of the above what you will; and, as always, if you think you see an error in my work, please let me know.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/27/13 Churchill Down Races 9 & 10 - Results

Thanks be to The Almighty, and to Jockey Joel Rosario, our Double play comes through and our bottom line goes up.

Race 9 at Churchill Downs Saturday night saw # 3 Horned Frog (Final Odds 0.70) gain, then lose, then re-gain the lead in the stretch, battling with # 8 Biker Boy (3.60) right down to the wire before sticking a head in front and winning by a neck.  Race 10 featured another photo finish, as # 4 Forty Tales (3.10) came on from being sixth (seven lengths back) at the half to grab the lead near the wire and then just hold on to win by a neck over # 6 Capo Bastone (4.90) who had come from even further back, having been in eighth place (seventeen and a half lengths back) at the half.

So it was Rosario in the first half of the Double followed by Rosario in the second half of the Double, which made for a $14.80 payout for every two dollars wagered.  Since we had it for five bucks on our ticket, we cashed out for $37.00, making for a $19.00 profit off our initial $18.00 investment.  Not exactly what I would call a score, but rest assured you will never see me turn my nose up at profit.  Besides, as my close personal friend J L Sullivan likes to say, "No one ever went broke cashing tickets."

I hope you all had it with me.

Incidentally, Joel Rosario also rode the winner in the race immediately before and in the race immediately after the Double that we played, thus making for an all-Rosario Pick Four.  Those who were sharp enough to play the winning sequence of  6 / 3 / 4 / 11 in the late Pick Four were rewarded with a payout of $36.25 for a fifty cent wager.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/27/13 Churchill Down Races 9 & 10 - Preview

As I type this the track is fast and the turf is good for Churchill Downs on Opening Night; but the forecast still calls for thunderstorms.  So no Pick Four analysis tonight, as I have no idea when the rains will come.

I am liking # 3 Horned Frog (ML 9-5) in Race 9; he just missed at this level his last time out at Keeneland.  Horned Frog is two-for-three on the Churchill Downs main track, and has always finished in the Exacta (two Wins and two Places) whenever he's tried tonight's distance.  The last four times Horned Frog has run on the dirt, his Beyer Speed Figures have been 83 / 85 / 84 / 81, which is approximately what it takes to win at this level.

I also think # 2 Gallant Pleasure (ML 5-1) rates an upset chance in Race 9; it's just a question of whether his last outing was a fluke, or an injury.  Gallant Pleasure won at this level at tonight's distance two back with an 85 Beyer; if he can return to that form, he just might get his picture taken when the race is over.

Gotta respect the Baffert with the triple digit Beyer (Zee Bros, ML 5-2) in Race 10, the Derby Trial;  but that race looks like a closer's dream; in which case I like # 4 Forty Tales (3-1) best, with a little # 6 Capo Bastone (ML 5-1) and # 1 Officer Alex (ML 8-1) tossed in.

If we stick with just a Race 9 / Race 10 Double, we could do something like this:

$5 DBL 3 / 3, 4

$2 DBL 3 / 1, 6

$1 DBL 2 / 1, 3, 4, 6

Total Cost: $18

Post time for Race 9 @ Churchill Downs is 10:11 EDT / 7:11 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Results

Well, that was nice.  Yes, thanks be to God, that was nice, indeed.

We successfully managed to get our A's home in Races 7, 8, and 10; and while we didn't get the horse we loved the most on top in the featured 9th, we cashed anyway, as we had all the bases covered in that one.  For the record, the winners of the late Pick Four at Keeneland Saturday in order were:

RACE 7 - Awesome Flower (1.20)

RACE 8 - Sweet Cassiopeia (2.10)

RACE 9 - Winning Cause (6.80)

RACE 10 - Suyeta (1.70)

The winning sequence of  4 / 9 / 1 / 3 paid out $150.40 for a fifty cent wager.  So playing it the way I detailed in the preview meant that our initial investment of $19.50 yielded a profit of $130.90.  I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 3 Lexington, one of the "Wild Card" races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, will be run Saturday at Keeneland Park.  And while that promises to be a very competitive event, I think we can have some fun today on the cheap by putting in a Pick Four ticket that includes the feature race.

Taking them one at a time:

RACE 7

# 2 Queen of Mambo (Morning Line 7-2) has just missed at this level (Alw N1X) twice, losing by a neck in each of her last two races.  As that pair were two turns on the grass, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not her form will carry in today's contest, her first try on the synthetic.  

# 4 Awesome Flower (ML 3-1) won a Claiming Race (Clm $30K N2L) her last time out with a Beyer Speed Figure that's slightly better than par for this level of competition; her Beyer the race prior was even better.  

# 5 Clear Danger (ML 10-1) just missed at this level at this distance over this track back in October, three races back.  This will be her first start on a synthetic surface since that event.

RACE 8 - THE GIANT'S CAUSEWAY

# 2 Extravaganza (ML 5-1) comes off a win in the Happy Ticket Stakes at Fair Grounds with a Beyer that ties for best last-out in this field.  Extravaganza should do much better today than she did in this event last year.

# 5 Sensible Lady (ML 4-1) has multiple wins at this level, and has never finished out of the Trifecta in a turf sprint.  She's coming off a long layoff, but that didn't stop her last year as she won the first time off the bench after a greater than four month vacation.

# 9 Sweet Cassiopeia (ML 5-2) ties with Extravaganza for best last-out Beyer, having earned hers in an Allowance Race where she crossed the wire a neck in front of odds-on favorite Stopshoppingmaria.  Sweet Cassiopeai's Beyer was even better in her victory in the race before that one, which would prove to be a key race (that is, a race in which more than one of the entrants would go on to win their next race).  Sweet Cassiopeia has yet to finish out of the Exacta on the grass.

RACE 9 - THE LEXINGTON

# 11 Pure Fun (ML 7-2) is the girl taking on the boys.  More importantly, she's the Grade 1 winner in an event that has no other Graded Stakes winners.  She's much improved since moving off the grass, and that Grade 1 victory was earned on a synthetic surface.  

RACE 10

# 3 Suyeta (ML 3-1) drops back to a level more in line with his ability, after finishing fourth in a $20k Optional Claimer with a Beyer (81) that should be good enough to win this event today.  Suyeta is three-for-six on the Keeneland main track, two-for-three at today's distance, and will have Rosario on board for the ride.

# 9 Ghost Chapel (ML 5-1) won at this level last time out, but with a Beyer below par for this level.

I still think The Lexington is wide open; and the finale needs some spreading as well.  But I'm going to try to go cheap here, and see if I can get by with three singles as A's, and then go heavy on the C's.  Here's the Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing, beginning with the all A's:

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Play that one for $2.50, and it'll cost you $5.00.

Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:

RACE 7: 5

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $0.50

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 2, 5

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $2.00

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $9.00

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 2, 8, 9

Total Cost: $3.00

Total Cost of Pick Four Tickets: $19.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:11 EDT / 1:11 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo