11/27/16 Gulfstream Park West Rainbow Six - Results

Race 5 - # 1 General McGooby (Final Odds 6.20) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 5 Bama Bound (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Who's That Chick (29.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Ceeky (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Moonwalker (8.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Perfectress (4.80) - "B" Selection

We had a very good day, if you ignore the results of the odd-numbered races.  But, unfortunately, those count too; and while our z-pattern of selections may bode well for future results, for the present time it means that today was a day for us to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Six sequence of  1 / 5 / 2 / 2 / 4 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $27,000.76 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/27/16 Gulfstream Park West Rainbow Six - Preview

With significant rainfall forecast for Del Mar, I decided to switch things up a bit by shifting our focus from west coast to east.  Sunday is the final day of the Gulfstream Park West (nee Calder Race Course) meet, so everything must go; meaning all wagers are subject to mandatory payouts.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as we take a run at South Florida's Rainbow Pick Six.

RACE 5 - Md $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Chasing the Stars (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Arpinella (ML 4-1)
# 6 Lil' Charlie (ML 8-1)


C's

# 7 Il Nonno (10-1)
# 8 Gran Abarrio (ML 12-1)
# 10 Lord Ruler (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 A B G Mostro (ML 5-1)

Chasing the Stars too the Place at this class level over this turf course last time out.  Arpinella drops in for a tag for the first time.  Lil' Charlie could move up with a trip a little closer to the rail than last time out.

Il Nonno and Gran Abarrio are the ones that could be running best late.  Lord Ruler took the Show against slightly less expensive stock in his debut last time out.

RACE 6 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Bama Bound (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 8 Toh's Grey Cat (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Jaiden's Best (ML 6-1)

Bama Bound is typically the type of horse that I would single, having finished in the Exacta in each of his five races, the last two being at today's class level.  The problem is that all those top two finishes came for different connections; this will be Bama Bound's first start for a trainer who visits the Winner's Circle a lot less frequently than the one that Bama Bound just left.  So for that reason, we'll be using others in our play.

Toh's Grey Cat won at this class level back in September, and then disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his next three starts with today's price tag on his head.  Jaiden's Best won at today's class level two starts back, albeit for different connections.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Rara (ML 4-1)
# 6 Cowboy's Princess (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Little Twitch (ML 5-1)
# 7 Desert Bliss (ML 10-1)

Cowboy's Princess and Rara finished one-two last time out at this class level, separated by just a nose at the wire.  Little Twitch has finished in the Trifecta in six of her last seven races.  Desert Bliss took the Show against more expensive stock the last time that she competed on the grass.

RACE 8 - Md $12.5k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Ceeky (ML 3-1)

# 7 Mikes Muscle Man (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 One Classy Dude (ML 6-1)

# 3 Thegift From Haven (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 American Rocket (ML 20-1) and # 8 Hezapleasantspark (ML 12-1)

Ceeky took the Place against more expensive last time out.  Mikes Muscle Man drops in for a tag for his second career contest, as well as getting Lasix for the first time.

One Classy Dude is by a Forestry mare; descendants of Forestry tend to do well at seven furlongs.  Thegift From Haven took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  That so far has been the only time in Thegift From Haven's seven race career that he's picked up his feet.  If his connections can figure out why Thegift From Haven ran on that day when he hasn't on any other, they just might find themselves with a decent horse on their hands.

RACE 9 - OC 25k/C - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Incensed (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 6 Padilla (ML 10-1)

# 7 Our Independence (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Starship Thor (ML 6-1)

Incensed ships in from up north after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two races against pure Allowance company.  Padilla missed victory by just a neck the last time that he competed over a firm turf course.  Our Independence won by daylight at this approximate class level over this turf course last time out.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $10k - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Convertible (ML 12-1)

# 12 Matchbook Lilly (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Pefectress (ML 5-1)

# 15 You Can Do Magic (ML 10-1)

C's

# 5 Asplashofanna (ML 20-1)

# 9 Ms. B V I (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Song Memory (ML 9-5), # 10 Minnieminnie (ML 30-1), # 14 Shesahellcat (ML 30-1), and # 16 Honor the Madonna (ML 30-1).  Bring in # 13 Serket (ML 30-1) and # 15 You Can Do Magic (ML 10-1) off The Also Eligible List, as those two will run

Convertible took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Matchbook Lilly took the Show at this class level last time out.  Perfectress and Asplashofanna should be forwardly placed early.  You Can Do Magic took the Show at this class level last time out.  Ms. B V I has proven to be competitive at this class level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.

OK, that's the analysis.  Since today is a mandatory payout day we can press our "A" Selections without fear of killing our jackpot chances.  So with that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.40 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $3.20

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 3,4,6 with 5,8 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 6,7,9 with 3,4,12,15 $57.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 7,8,10 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $4.80

$0.20 P6: 4 with 2 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 4,7 with 2,7 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 1,3 with 9 with 4,12 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 4 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,7 with 9 with 5,9 $1.60

Total: $72.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 2:32 EST / 11:32 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Jimmy Durante - # 4 Journey Home (Final Odds 7.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Unique Bella (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Seabiscuit - # 7 Ring Weekend (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 One I'm Running To (2.40) - "A" Selection

We anticipated that the weather would create a high probability of an unusual occurrence in the grass contests; but I doubt that anyone could have possibly predicted what happened in The Jimmy Durante, as table tops from the infield blew onto the turf course, creating absolute chaos as horses were forced to steady and swerve as they attempted to avoid the various debris strewn across the grass around the first turn.  Thankfully there were no injuries, as it was reported that all horses and riders were safe upon their return.

Should the Jimmy Durante have been declared a no contest?  Well, needless to say, my opinion is biased, having as we did an investment in the outcome.  As can be seen by the notes in the chart of the race, the stewards ruled that "the majority of runners in the race were not affected by the debris"; a rather curious decision when one peruses the comments alongside each horse and sees that ten of the thirteen entrants were said to have encountered trouble due to the debris.  But we bettors agree prior to the race to abide by the decision of the stewards, not the chart callers; and since the results the opening leg of the sequence were allowed to stand, today was a day for us to contribute, and not collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 4 / 7 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $120.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Juveniles dominate the latter portion of Saturday's Del Mar card, with seventy-five percent of the final four races being contested by two year olds.  In addition, we expect to be looking skyward today; not just for divine guidance (though such is always welcome) but also to keep an eye out for the impending rains; so keep in mind that the two Graded Stakes scheduled for the turf today just may, may, wind up being taken off the lawn.  So with the backdrop laid let's get to it, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Jimmy Durante (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Defiant Honor (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 6 Partyinthepaddock (ML 15-1)
# 8 With Honors (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Defiant Honor graduated on a softened lawn in New York last time out, and should therefore appreciate any impending rainfall.  Partyinthepaddock closed well charging down the Santa Anita hill two starts back, which suggests that she should do well on the stretchout on the flats.  With Honors was a Listed Stakes winner the last time that she competed over this turf course.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Unique Bella (ML 7-5)
# 7 Mannerly (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Top Quality (ML 15-1)
# 5 Lady Mamba (ML 3-1)

Unique Bella, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out.  Mannerly, trained by Doug O'Neill, broke sharply and showed good early speed in her debut last time out.  Top Quality and Lady Mamba are a pair of first time starters whose sires (Quality Road and War Front, respectively) produce runners who tend to do well in their debuts.

RACE 8 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 What a View (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 10-1)
# 2 Stylistics United (ML 30-1)
# 3 Om (ML 5-2)
# 4 Vyjack (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hunt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Ring Weekend (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 10-1)

C's

None

What a View won a pair of Graded Stakes earlier this year at Santa Anita when there was a bit of a squish beneath his hooves; perhaps the raindrops Saturday will bring about a return to that form.  One thing for sure is that, be it wet or dry, What a View should be forwardly placed early.

The B's are everyone else.  Even without accounting for the weather, this looks to be a wide open affair; factor in the potential chaos that may be caused by the off going and it seems that the best move is to allow for the maximum possibility of catching the unexpected in this leg.

RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 One I'm Running To (ML 2-1)
# 5 Sawbuck (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Pampers n' Boots (ML 8-1)
# 7 Majestic Journey (ML 5-1)

Looks like a replay of our selections in the second leg, as we'll be using a pair of runners who have run well at this class level as our "A" Selections, while putting a pair of first time starters on a backup tickets as "C" Selections.  Interesting how that worked out; and let's hope that a few hours from now we'll be talking about how it did indeed "work out".

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4,7 with 5 with 4,5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6,8 with 4,7 with ALL with 4,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,5 with 5 with 4,5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,7 with 5 with 3,7 $2.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/24/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 6 Hot Market (Final Odds 4.90) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 7 Bad Ju Ju (2.30*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Red Carpet - # 1 Nuovo Record (Jpn) (5.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Big Champion (0.30*) - "A" Selection

We couldn't have been more right about our single in the finale, as Big Champion was never headed while winning the nightcap by as many as he pleased.  Unfortunately, we couldn't have been more wrong about Bad Ju Ju in the second leg, as her absence from our big ticket was the difference between us trashing or cashing today.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $86.70 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/24/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

“Acknowledging the good that you already have in your life is the foundation for all abundance.” - Eckhart Tolle

"Who does not thank for little will not thank for much." - Estonian Proverb

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles.  Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.

We have a holiday card today at Del Mar, with a Graded Stakes as the feature; The Red Carpet, to be precise.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 5 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Brandofthebartender (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Royal Privacy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Anatolian Heat (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hot Market (ML 4-1)
# 7 Family Code (ML 4-1)
# 9 Prohibition Repeal (ML 15-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 11 K Thirty Eight (No Line) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List

Brandofthebartender has taken the Place at this class level or higher in each of his last three starts.  Royal Privacy could be the controlling speed on the rail.  Anatolian Heat tries a one turn turf sprint for the first time, and looks as if he could benefit from the reduction in real estate.  Hot Market, a prior winner at this class level, seems to do his best running when having to go around just one turn.

Family Code tries grass for the first time, and he doesn't appear to have much of a turf pedigree; but it's my opinion that, when it comes to these short grass sprints, dirt form tends to carryover to the lawn more predictably than in the longer turf contests.  Continuing along that line of reasoning, we include Prohibition Repeal, who was victorious at this class level on the main track three starts back, albeit for different connections.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Lily Pod (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Stealth Drone (ML 5-1)

# 2 Brainspin (ML 4-1)

# 3 Forever Darling (ML 3-1)

C's

# 7 Bad Ju Ju (ML 4-1)

Lily Pad took the Show at this class level the last time that she competed on this main track.  Stealth Drone missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Brainspin took the Place at this class level last time out, and is a perfect two-for-two in her career over this main track.

Forever Darling is a Graded Stakes winner running in an Allowance contest off a layoff; while that's normally a red flag, I think the addition of blinkers here coupled with Forever Darling's more recent results against Graded Stakes competition suggests that Forever Darling is well meant here, rather than simply using this race as a prep for future contests.  Bad Ju Ju moves up the class ladder after winning by daylight against N1X company last time out.

RACE 7 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Arles (Fr) (ML 5-2)

# 5 Frenzified (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Nuovo Record (Jpn) (ML 3-1)

# 4 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 Swear by It (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 11 Backintheacademy (ML 30-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List

Arles (Fr) took the Place in the Grade 3 Glen Falls at Saratoga last time out at today's distance.  Frenzified was a Listed Stakes winner two starts back at today's distance over this turf course.

Nuovo Record (Jpn) was outclassed last time out and should improve against reduced company.  Generosidade (Uru) took the Place two starts back behind Frenzified in The CTT and TOC Handicap, and could move up off the freshening.  Swear by It has proven to be competitive against Graded Stakes company, and might move forward with the change in coasts.

RACE 8 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Big Champion (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Stormin Cowboy (ML 20-1)

# 5 Party Rule (ML 12-1)

# 6 Global Event (ML 7-2)

# 7 Julia's Summer (ML 12-1)

Big Champion took the Place at this class level three starts back.  Since then Big Champion has taken the Place against winners and the Show against non-claiming maidens.  I don't know why Big Champion's connections have chosen to return him to the lowest maiden claiming ranks rather than just using him to keep cashing the minor award checks against more expensive stock; but here Big Champion is, and he looks to me to be a clear head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.

So Big Champion will be a single on our big ticket, as I don't believe that any of the backups that we will be using have a high enough chance of victory to justify doubling the cost of our "All A Entries with All B Entries" purchase.  As regards our backups, Stormin Cowboy and Party Rule are first time starts whose sires (Cowboy Cal and Tribal Rule, respectively) tend to produce runners who do well at first asking.  Global Event goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such.  Julia's Summer could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,9 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 3 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 2,5 with 3 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 3 with 3 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 4,5,6,7 $4.00

Total: $55.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 3:59 EST / 12:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo