So here we are, the big day, the first Saturday in May. Enjoy it, horse players, because this day was meant for us; with not just the biggest racing event of the year on tap, but an absolute plethora of wagering options to support it. So with all that let's just get to it, as we take a run at the mid-card Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Oscar Performance (Morning Line 7-2)
# 10 Good Samaritan (ML 5-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Holiday Stone (ML 15-1)
# 2 Big Score (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 11 La Coronel (ML 8-1), winner of yesterday's Edgewood
Oscar Performance and Good Samaritan filled out two thirds of the Trifecta in last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. This will be Good Samaritan's first start since that event; but Trainer Bill Mott tends to do well when bringing his runners back from an extended leave.
Oscar Performance has had a start in 2017, in last month's Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland; a start which you can just toss, in my opinion, as Oscar Performance lost all chance at the break. This is also why I rate the chances of Big Score and Holiday Stone somewhat below those of Oscar Performance today, even though Big Score and Holiday Stone filled out the Exacta in front of Oscar Performance in the Transylvania last time out.
RACE 10 - The Churchill Downs (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Awesome Slew (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Masochistic (ML 5-2)
# 12 Denman's Call (ML 8-1)
C's
# 5 Clearly Now (ML 6-1)
# 7 Solid Wager (ML 30-1)
# 13 Tom's Ready (ML 15-1)
Awesome Slew closed well in winning the Grade 3 Commonwealth last time out, and should find plenty of pace to chase here as well. Denman's Call and Masochistic filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out, and they could very well do likewise again here today.
Clearly Now responded well to the rider switch last time out. Solid Wager could rebound with the return to one turn racing. Tom's Ready could be the one running best late should Awesome Slew get stuck in traffic.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Bal a Bali (ML 6-1)
# 8 Beach Patrol (ML 5-1)
# 11 Can'thelpbelieving (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 Divisidero (ML 4-1)
# 4 Conquest Panthera (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Oscar Nominated (ML 15-1)
# 9 Enterprising (12-1)
Scratch # 7 World Approval (ML 6-1)
Bal a Bali won the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile in his 2017 debut last time out. Beach Patrol, Place finisher in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap last time out, could find himself with an uncontested lead early, and possibly late. Can'thelpbelieving makes his 2017 debut after winning the Grade 3 Cliff Hanger for fun last time out.
Divisidero has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last three starts; but Divisidero's ability to win on Kentucky Derby Day at Chruchill Downs is well documented. Conquest Panthera has closed well in each of his 2017 starts, and he should appreciate the increase in distance. Enterprising and Oscar Nominated have proven to be approximate equals to each other of late; perhaps their form will hold as they move up in class together.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 17 Irish War Cry (ML 6-1)
# 18 Gormley (ML 15-1)
B's
# 2 Thunder Snow (ML 20-1)
# 5 Always Dreaming (ML 5-1)
# 8 Hence (ML 15-1)
# 14 Classic Empire (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 Irap (ML 20-1)
# 10 Gunnevera (ML 15-1)
# 11 Battle of Midway (ML 30-1)
# 13 J Boys Echo (ML 20-1)
# 15 McCraken (ML 5-1)
# 16 Tapwrit (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 21 Royal Mo (ML 20-1) and # 22 Master Plan (ML 50-1)
Irish War Cry and Gormley, in my opinion, give me the best on the East Coast and the best on the West Coast as my top selections. In a Derby field that seems to lack a real standout, these are the two that have, in my analysis, best demonstrated the ability to defeat quality competition on more than one occasion.
The “B” Selections give us six for this leg on the big ticket. And while it’s hard to be certain about anything in a race this wide open, I like our coverage with these half dozen runners, should we be fortunate enough to still be in the game after the first three legs.
As for the “C” Selections, the deep backups, if you will, the six I've selected give us an even dozen entrants for this leg. And while twelve runners are certainly a lot to use in a single leg in any multi-race wager, keep in mind that using twelve in a field of twenty is just slightly more than half the field, which seems like appropriate percentage of use in a race this wide open.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, am I over budget. But this is the Kentucky Derby, and a wide open Kentucky Derby at that. So let's just roll with it. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $12.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,2,12 with 2,4,6,8,11 with 2,5,8,14,17,18 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 5,7,13 with 6,8,11 with 17,18 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 3,9 with 17,18 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1 with 6,8,11 with 9,10,11,13,15,16 $18.00
Total: $148.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 6, 2017
Friday, May 5, 2017
5/5/17 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Five - Results
Race 7 - The Twin Spires Turf Sprint - # 12 Green Mask (Final Odds 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Eight Belles - # 1 Benner Island (3.40*) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Task Force Glory (30.60) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Edgewood - # 1A La Coronel (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Kentucky Oaks - # 13 Abel Tasman (9.20) - "C" Selection
I feel kinda bad that I missed what everyone else saw in Benner Island, betting her down as they did from her Morning Line Odds of 10-1 to be the Post Time Favorite. On the other hand, I saw what everyone else saw in the Kentucky Oaks Post Time Favorite, # 4 Paradise Woods (1.20*), only for all of us to see her burn herself out on the front end.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Oaks Pick Five sequence of 12 / 1 / 5 / 1 / 13 were rewarded with a payout of $32,855.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Eight Belles - # 1 Benner Island (3.40*) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Task Force Glory (30.60) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Edgewood - # 1A La Coronel (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Kentucky Oaks - # 13 Abel Tasman (9.20) - "C" Selection
I feel kinda bad that I missed what everyone else saw in Benner Island, betting her down as they did from her Morning Line Odds of 10-1 to be the Post Time Favorite. On the other hand, I saw what everyone else saw in the Kentucky Oaks Post Time Favorite, # 4 Paradise Woods (1.20*), only for all of us to see her burn herself out on the front end.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Oaks Pick Five sequence of 12 / 1 / 5 / 1 / 13 were rewarded with a payout of $32,855.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/5/17 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Five - Preview
What's this? Kentucky Derby weekend and this blog has not gone dark? Well, long story short, health issues have forced me to be a scratch from this year's activities with The Derby Crew at Green Valley Ranch. Rest assured, it's nothing serious, and Good Lord willing I'll be out there once again in 2018. But for now I'm here and you're there, so let's get to it as we take a run at The Mid Card Pick Five ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
RACE 7 - The Twin Spires Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Pure Sensation (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Holding Gold (ML 4-1)
# 4 Why Two (ML 5-1)
# 12 Green Mask (ML 3-1)
C's
# 10 Black Bear (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 2 Platinum Prince (ML 20-1) and Maniacal (ML 12-1)
Pure Sensation's last start was in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, where his Show finish ended a three race winning streak. Pure Sensation has demonstrated the ability in the past to win at this level on a softened turf.
Holding Gold won the Grade 2 Shakertown last time out, with Green Mask just a neck behind. Why Two has been working well for this, his 2017 debut. Black Bear should do well with the surface switch.
RACE 8 - (F) The Eight Belles (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Union Strike (ML 3-1)
# 10 Ghalia (ML 7-2)
B's
# 14 Cajun Delta Dawn (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Lovely Bernadette (ML 30-1)
# 4 Pretty City Dancer (ML 8-1)
# 7 Golden Mischief (ML 12-1)
# 9 Florida Fabulous (ML 9-2)
Union Strike did quite well for herself in her first start of 2017 last time out, and she has been working well for this event. Ghalia, undefeated in three tries, should do well in the off going. Cajun Delta Dawn, three-for-four lifetime on un-Fast tracks, shows a nice, steady workout pattern heading into this contest.
Lovely Bernadette and Pretty City Dancer could each improve with the return to one turn racing. Golden Mischief could be the one running best late if Union Strike gets caught in traffic. Florida Fabulous shows nothing but ones in both of her career starts, and could give Ghalia a tough time in the early going.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 River Echo (GB) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Taketothestreets (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tom's d'Etat (ML 7-2)
# 12 Goats Town (ML 6-1)
C's
# 10 Langdarma (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 11 Pinson (ML 12-1); but don't bring in any of the Also Eligibles; as # 13 Gangster (ML 7-2), # 14 Rich Daddy (ML 20-1), and # 15 Homespun Hero (ML 8-1) all get to sit this one out.
River Echo (GB) has shown a marked improvement since switching to the dirt for Trainer Peter Miller. Taketothestreets was a winner at this approximate class level two starts back at Oaklawn Park, and could be the speed of the speed here.
Tom's d'Etat has run well wherever he has shipped. Goats Town took the Place behind Taketothestreets two starts back, and could move up on the wet surface. Langdarma has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six starts.
RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dream Dancing / # 1A La Coronel (ML 8-5)
# 6 Stallion Heiress (ML 6-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Bernadiva (ML 12-1)
# 7 Proctor's Ledge (ML 5-1)
# 8 Storm the Hill (ML 12-1)
Yes, La Coronel, winner of the Grade 3 Appalachian last time out, will run here, rather than in Saturday's American Turf (apparently La Coronel's connections didn't like the outside draw that they pulled for tomorrow's contest). La Coronel and her entry mate, Dream Dancing, winner of the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride two starts back, make a formidable pair.
Stallion Heiress, undefeated in three lifetime starts, looks like the one that they'll have to catch. Bernadiva made a nice move forward last time out. Bernadiva has also down well in the past on a softened course.
Proctor's Ledge took the Show behind La Coronel in the Appalachian last time out. Storm the Hill is undefeated since moving to the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Paradise Woods (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Farrell (ML 5-1)
# 10 Miss Sky Warrior (ML 9-2)
# 13 Abel Tasman (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 15 Summer Luck (ML 30-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet." - Damon Runyon.
Had her connections chosen to run her in tomorrow's Derby, Paradise Woods would have to have been considered a strong contender. Here, she seems to simply out-class the rest of the field. But, this being her first time on an off going, it seems prudent to have some backup just in case.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 3,4,8,12 with 2,10,14 with 3,4,7,12 with 1,6 with 4 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 10 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 3,4,7,9 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 10 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 2,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 7,10,13 $6.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:00 EDT / 11:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Twin Spires Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Pure Sensation (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Holding Gold (ML 4-1)
# 4 Why Two (ML 5-1)
# 12 Green Mask (ML 3-1)
C's
# 10 Black Bear (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 2 Platinum Prince (ML 20-1) and Maniacal (ML 12-1)
Pure Sensation's last start was in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, where his Show finish ended a three race winning streak. Pure Sensation has demonstrated the ability in the past to win at this level on a softened turf.
Holding Gold won the Grade 2 Shakertown last time out, with Green Mask just a neck behind. Why Two has been working well for this, his 2017 debut. Black Bear should do well with the surface switch.
RACE 8 - (F) The Eight Belles (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Union Strike (ML 3-1)
# 10 Ghalia (ML 7-2)
B's
# 14 Cajun Delta Dawn (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Lovely Bernadette (ML 30-1)
# 4 Pretty City Dancer (ML 8-1)
# 7 Golden Mischief (ML 12-1)
# 9 Florida Fabulous (ML 9-2)
Union Strike did quite well for herself in her first start of 2017 last time out, and she has been working well for this event. Ghalia, undefeated in three tries, should do well in the off going. Cajun Delta Dawn, three-for-four lifetime on un-Fast tracks, shows a nice, steady workout pattern heading into this contest.
Lovely Bernadette and Pretty City Dancer could each improve with the return to one turn racing. Golden Mischief could be the one running best late if Union Strike gets caught in traffic. Florida Fabulous shows nothing but ones in both of her career starts, and could give Ghalia a tough time in the early going.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 River Echo (GB) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Taketothestreets (ML 6-1)
# 7 Tom's d'Etat (ML 7-2)
# 12 Goats Town (ML 6-1)
C's
# 10 Langdarma (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 11 Pinson (ML 12-1); but don't bring in any of the Also Eligibles; as # 13 Gangster (ML 7-2), # 14 Rich Daddy (ML 20-1), and # 15 Homespun Hero (ML 8-1) all get to sit this one out.
River Echo (GB) has shown a marked improvement since switching to the dirt for Trainer Peter Miller. Taketothestreets was a winner at this approximate class level two starts back at Oaklawn Park, and could be the speed of the speed here.
Tom's d'Etat has run well wherever he has shipped. Goats Town took the Place behind Taketothestreets two starts back, and could move up on the wet surface. Langdarma has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six starts.
RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dream Dancing / # 1A La Coronel (ML 8-5)
# 6 Stallion Heiress (ML 6-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Bernadiva (ML 12-1)
# 7 Proctor's Ledge (ML 5-1)
# 8 Storm the Hill (ML 12-1)
Yes, La Coronel, winner of the Grade 3 Appalachian last time out, will run here, rather than in Saturday's American Turf (apparently La Coronel's connections didn't like the outside draw that they pulled for tomorrow's contest). La Coronel and her entry mate, Dream Dancing, winner of the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride two starts back, make a formidable pair.
Stallion Heiress, undefeated in three lifetime starts, looks like the one that they'll have to catch. Bernadiva made a nice move forward last time out. Bernadiva has also down well in the past on a softened course.
Proctor's Ledge took the Show behind La Coronel in the Appalachian last time out. Storm the Hill is undefeated since moving to the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Paradise Woods (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Farrell (ML 5-1)
# 10 Miss Sky Warrior (ML 9-2)
# 13 Abel Tasman (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 15 Summer Luck (ML 30-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet." - Damon Runyon.
Had her connections chosen to run her in tomorrow's Derby, Paradise Woods would have to have been considered a strong contender. Here, she seems to simply out-class the rest of the field. But, this being her first time on an off going, it seems prudent to have some backup just in case.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 3,4,8,12 with 2,10,14 with 3,4,7,12 with 1,6 with 4 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 10 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 3,4,7,9 with 4 with 1,6 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 10 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 2,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 8 with 2,10 with 4 with 1,6 with 7,10,13 $6.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:00 EDT / 11:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 30, 2017
4/30/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
Back to trying to pick a half dozen in a row on a Sunday card at Golden Gate Fields that contains a pair of state bred stakes on some California grass. Speaking of picking six, the following was part of a press release this past week by the California Horse Racing Board:
"The Board approved a request from the California Authority of Racing Fairs (CARF) to run
five of the northern fair meets as one combined fair race meet, which among other things will
allow for Pick Six carryovers from meet to meet, culminating in Fresno. As allocated, those
venues and dates are: Oak Tree at Pleasanton from June 21 through July 11, the State Fair at
Cal Expo (July 12-August 1), the Humboldt County Fair in Ferndale (August 25-September
3), CARF with Oak Tree at Pleasanton (September 20-October 3), and the Big Fresno Fair
(October 4-17)"
Personally, I like it, as it will allow for the possibility of the pool to grow into a sizable amount. But that's the future; let's return to the present, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 4 - (F) [S] The Campanile $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Miss Sunset (Morning Line 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Radish (ML 4-1)
# 5 Shari (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lucky Christina (ML 2-1)
Miss Sunset won the Sweet Life charging down the Santa Anita Hill back in February. Miss Sunset should improve with the return to turf.
Radish won the photo for the Place over Miss Sunset last time out in the Evening Jewel last time out, which was run over the main Santa Anita dirt track. Shari and Lucky Christina, both sired by Lucky Pulpit, could move up in their turf debut.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $6.25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Upended (ML 7-5)
B’s
# 4 Secret Agent Girl (ML 9-2)
# 5 Stormy Endeavor (ML 5-2)
C's
# 7 Hillside Queen (ML 6-1)
Upended took the Show against more expensive last time out. Secret Agent Girl tries winners for the first time after winning handily in her first start of 2017. Stormy Endeavor took the Place at this class level last time out. Hillside Queen flashed a bit of early speed against more expensive last time out.
RACE 6 - [S] The Silky Sullivan $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Mr. Hinx (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tribal Storm (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Grecian Fire (ML 6-1)
# 3 More Power to Him (ML 9-2)
# 4 Ninety Nine Proof (ML 15-1)
# 6 Elwood J (ML 3-1)
# 7 B Squared (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Mr. Hinx and Tribal Storm are the only two in this field that have won competing on the grass. Three of the starters here are making their turf debuts. The longest shot on the Morning Line, Ninety Nine Proof, has lost just once in four career starts. Quite frankly, I think this contest is wide open; so rather than trying to be ultra fine, let's just put everyone on our big ticket and try to get a price.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Mah Gellin (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Allaboutaction (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Malibu Alex (ML 6-1)
# 6 Top Pirana (ML 5-1)
Mah Gellin has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Allaboutaction looks to be the quickest in this field, and could steal it on the front end. Malibu Alex has been competitive with Mah Gellin in each of his last two outings, and could turn the tables on that rival today. Top Pirana could get a nice stalking trip from the outermost post.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Lazzam (GB) (ML 8-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Post Rock (ML 4-1)
# 5 Alamo Pintado (ML 30-1)
# 7 Tacola (ML 10-1)
# 11 Thermopylae (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 13 Neptune's Spear (ML 2-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Lazzam (GB) ships in from downstate, and is being priced to sell with a massive class drop off the layoff; which is certainly a huge red flag, but Trainer John Martin tends to win with such.
Alamo Pintado took the Show against classier the last time that he competed on the turf. Post Rock has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in three of his last four starts. Tacola could improve with the return to turf. Thermopylae took the Show behind Post Rock last time out.
RACE 9 - Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Storm Fashion (ML 7-2)
# 10 Smokin' Steve (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 One Tuff Minister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Venturi (ML 9-2)
# 9 Himalaya Star (ML 10-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 11 North Pacific (No Line), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since March 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have come in either this month or last (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 4 One Tuff Minister (ML 3-1), # 5 Venturi (ML 9-2), and # 8 Wake (ML 20-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Storm Fashion is getting some much needed class relief. Smokin' Steve goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who has been winning most everything in sight.
One Tuff Minister took the Place at this approximate class level two starts back, and could be the one running best late. Venturi could move up going third off the freshening. Himalaya Star looks to be the speed of the speed, and could steal this one on the front end.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket. While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2,4,5 with ALL with 4,5 with 6 with 1,4,5,9,10 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 4,5,6 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $2.40
$0.20 P6: 1 with 7 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 2,6 with 6 with 1,10 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 4,5,7,11 with 1,10 $3.20
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:18 EDT / 2:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"The Board approved a request from the California Authority of Racing Fairs (CARF) to run
five of the northern fair meets as one combined fair race meet, which among other things will
allow for Pick Six carryovers from meet to meet, culminating in Fresno. As allocated, those
venues and dates are: Oak Tree at Pleasanton from June 21 through July 11, the State Fair at
Cal Expo (July 12-August 1), the Humboldt County Fair in Ferndale (August 25-September
3), CARF with Oak Tree at Pleasanton (September 20-October 3), and the Big Fresno Fair
(October 4-17)"
Personally, I like it, as it will allow for the possibility of the pool to grow into a sizable amount. But that's the future; let's return to the present, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 4 - (F) [S] The Campanile $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Miss Sunset (Morning Line 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Radish (ML 4-1)
# 5 Shari (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lucky Christina (ML 2-1)
Miss Sunset won the Sweet Life charging down the Santa Anita Hill back in February. Miss Sunset should improve with the return to turf.
Radish won the photo for the Place over Miss Sunset last time out in the Evening Jewel last time out, which was run over the main Santa Anita dirt track. Shari and Lucky Christina, both sired by Lucky Pulpit, could move up in their turf debut.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $6.25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Upended (ML 7-5)
B’s
# 4 Secret Agent Girl (ML 9-2)
# 5 Stormy Endeavor (ML 5-2)
C's
# 7 Hillside Queen (ML 6-1)
Upended took the Show against more expensive last time out. Secret Agent Girl tries winners for the first time after winning handily in her first start of 2017. Stormy Endeavor took the Place at this class level last time out. Hillside Queen flashed a bit of early speed against more expensive last time out.
RACE 6 - [S] The Silky Sullivan $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Mr. Hinx (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tribal Storm (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Grecian Fire (ML 6-1)
# 3 More Power to Him (ML 9-2)
# 4 Ninety Nine Proof (ML 15-1)
# 6 Elwood J (ML 3-1)
# 7 B Squared (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Mr. Hinx and Tribal Storm are the only two in this field that have won competing on the grass. Three of the starters here are making their turf debuts. The longest shot on the Morning Line, Ninety Nine Proof, has lost just once in four career starts. Quite frankly, I think this contest is wide open; so rather than trying to be ultra fine, let's just put everyone on our big ticket and try to get a price.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Mah Gellin (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Allaboutaction (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Malibu Alex (ML 6-1)
# 6 Top Pirana (ML 5-1)
Mah Gellin has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Allaboutaction looks to be the quickest in this field, and could steal it on the front end. Malibu Alex has been competitive with Mah Gellin in each of his last two outings, and could turn the tables on that rival today. Top Pirana could get a nice stalking trip from the outermost post.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Lazzam (GB) (ML 8-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Post Rock (ML 4-1)
# 5 Alamo Pintado (ML 30-1)
# 7 Tacola (ML 10-1)
# 11 Thermopylae (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 13 Neptune's Spear (ML 2-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Lazzam (GB) ships in from downstate, and is being priced to sell with a massive class drop off the layoff; which is certainly a huge red flag, but Trainer John Martin tends to win with such.
Alamo Pintado took the Show against classier the last time that he competed on the turf. Post Rock has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in three of his last four starts. Tacola could improve with the return to turf. Thermopylae took the Show behind Post Rock last time out.
RACE 9 - Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Storm Fashion (ML 7-2)
# 10 Smokin' Steve (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 One Tuff Minister (ML 3-1)
# 5 Venturi (ML 9-2)
# 9 Himalaya Star (ML 10-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 11 North Pacific (No Line), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since March 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have come in either this month or last (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 4 One Tuff Minister (ML 3-1), # 5 Venturi (ML 9-2), and # 8 Wake (ML 20-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Storm Fashion is getting some much needed class relief. Smokin' Steve goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who has been winning most everything in sight.
One Tuff Minister took the Place at this approximate class level two starts back, and could be the one running best late. Venturi could move up going third off the freshening. Himalaya Star looks to be the speed of the speed, and could steal this one on the front end.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket. While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2,4,5 with ALL with 4,5 with 6 with 1,4,5,9,10 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 4,5,6 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $2.40
$0.20 P6: 1 with 7 with 1,5 with 4 with 6 with 1,10 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 2,6 with 6 with 1,10 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 1 with 2 with 1,5 with 4 with 4,5,7,11 with 1,10 $3.20
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:18 EDT / 2:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 29, 2017
4/29/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Pepper and Salt (Final Odds 2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The San Francisco Mile - # 6 Alert Bay (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Mended (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 If You Like It (16.20) - No Selection
We hit the "ALL" button in the opening leg just to see our "A" Selection cross under the wire a neck in front of the Post Time Favorite, # 7 Proudtobesicilian (2.00*); so perhaps that contest wasn't such a mess after all. Instead it turned out to be the nightcap which we didn't fully grasp, having as we did no part of either the winner or the Place runner, # 3 Brookys Star (4.40).
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (15.60) - $60.30 Finish: 3rd
# 4 Ryder’s Starlight (5.70) - $38.35 Finish: 6th
# 5 Top Tizzy (5.50) - $21.75 Finish: 5th
# 7 An Unusual Group (1.00*) - $15.35 Finish: 4th
Since a victory by Ryder's Starlight or An Unusual Group would have allowed us to collect our "All A Selections" ticket in addition to our big ticket, the payouts given above would have been trebled had either of those two won.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 6 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $31.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The San Francisco Mile - # 6 Alert Bay (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Mended (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 If You Like It (16.20) - No Selection
We hit the "ALL" button in the opening leg just to see our "A" Selection cross under the wire a neck in front of the Post Time Favorite, # 7 Proudtobesicilian (2.00*); so perhaps that contest wasn't such a mess after all. Instead it turned out to be the nightcap which we didn't fully grasp, having as we did no part of either the winner or the Place runner, # 3 Brookys Star (4.40).
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (15.60) - $60.30 Finish: 3rd
# 4 Ryder’s Starlight (5.70) - $38.35 Finish: 6th
# 5 Top Tizzy (5.50) - $21.75 Finish: 5th
# 7 An Unusual Group (1.00*) - $15.35 Finish: 4th
Since a victory by Ryder's Starlight or An Unusual Group would have allowed us to collect our "All A Selections" ticket in addition to our big ticket, the payouts given above would have been trebled had either of those two won.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 6 / 2 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $31.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/29/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
Graded Stakes competition comes to Northern California Saturday, as the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile is the featured race on the Golden Gate card. We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Pepper and Salt (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 1 V F Beestrong (ML 20-1)
# 2 Tuscan Warrior (ML 4-1)
# 5 Get Like Me (ML 3-1)
# 6 Smoke and Burn (ML 10-1)
# 7 Proudtobesicillian (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Ron Again (ML 5-1)
There are three reasons why I won't be putting in a Golden Pick Six play Saturday. Those three reasons are Races 4, 5, and 6. Race 4 is a contest for two year old juveniles, in which the entire field is making their career debut. Race 5 is carded for non-claiming state bred Maidens, three years old and upward, scheduled to be run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on some California grass. None of the entrants in Race 5 has ever previously raced on the turf.
So any selections I would make in Races 4 and 5 would be pure pedigree plays; and while that can be an entertaining challenge in a leg of a sequence wager, having two such legs fall into that category tends to make a six race play either too expensive, or more stabbing than selecting. Still, I might have been tempted to give it a go were it not for Race 6.
As you can see above, we're using everyone on our big ticket for the opening leg of The Late Pick Four. While we could reasonably whittle down the contenders by eliminating a couple of starters from our play, I don't think such a move is in our best interests in a contest this competitive. Had Race 6 contained a clear standout or pair of standouts, we might possibly have put together a reasonably priced Golden Pick Six play using all or most of the fields of Races 4 and 5. But in my opinion Race 6 on paper is just too close to call; so rather than turn this into a lottery and stab at numbers in Races 4, 5, and 6, we'll simply set the bar lower today and focus on the final four events on the card.
RACE 7 - The San Francisco Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 G. G. Ryder (ML 5-1)
# 6 Alert Bay (ML 8-5)
B's
# 4 Many Roses (ML 8-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 3 Patentar (Fr) (ML 5-2)
G. G. Ryder, winner of this event two years back, is making his first turf start since last year's running of this contest, and could improve with the surface switch. Alert Bay, winner of last year's running of this contest, looks to be in top form with his win in a no-condition Allowance race over the Tapeta main track last time out, in a field that contained many that Alert Bay will be facing again today. Many Roses looks to be quickest by far in this field, and could steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Mended (ML 1-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Aly's Last Magic (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sea Myrtle (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bow Tie Belle (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 5 French Tart (ML 15-1)
Mended is a perfect three-for-three since joining the barn of Trainer John Martin, and there's little reason to think that she can't make it four in a row. Aly's Last Magic was victorious last time out in a field that contained a few that are entered in this event. Sea Myrtle defeated open (non-conditioned) claimers last time out and could be the one running best late. Bow Tie Belle, who lost all chance at the break last time out, took the Place in a troubled trip behind Mended two starts back.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 32k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Ryder's Starlight (ML 10-1)
# 7 An Unusual Group (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Top Tizzy (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
Ryder's Starlight got her picture taken three of the last four times that she competed on the turf. An Unusual Group was a winner over this turf course two starts back, and seems to fit best on class. Russian Radiance (GB) will be making her first turf start since coming to North America. Top Tizzy returns off the freshening and will try to take this field from gate to wire.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 2 with 4,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,6 with 2 with 1,4,5,7 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 4,7 $6.00
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:21 EDT / 3:21 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Pepper and Salt (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 1 V F Beestrong (ML 20-1)
# 2 Tuscan Warrior (ML 4-1)
# 5 Get Like Me (ML 3-1)
# 6 Smoke and Burn (ML 10-1)
# 7 Proudtobesicillian (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Ron Again (ML 5-1)
There are three reasons why I won't be putting in a Golden Pick Six play Saturday. Those three reasons are Races 4, 5, and 6. Race 4 is a contest for two year old juveniles, in which the entire field is making their career debut. Race 5 is carded for non-claiming state bred Maidens, three years old and upward, scheduled to be run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on some California grass. None of the entrants in Race 5 has ever previously raced on the turf.
So any selections I would make in Races 4 and 5 would be pure pedigree plays; and while that can be an entertaining challenge in a leg of a sequence wager, having two such legs fall into that category tends to make a six race play either too expensive, or more stabbing than selecting. Still, I might have been tempted to give it a go were it not for Race 6.
As you can see above, we're using everyone on our big ticket for the opening leg of The Late Pick Four. While we could reasonably whittle down the contenders by eliminating a couple of starters from our play, I don't think such a move is in our best interests in a contest this competitive. Had Race 6 contained a clear standout or pair of standouts, we might possibly have put together a reasonably priced Golden Pick Six play using all or most of the fields of Races 4 and 5. But in my opinion Race 6 on paper is just too close to call; so rather than turn this into a lottery and stab at numbers in Races 4, 5, and 6, we'll simply set the bar lower today and focus on the final four events on the card.
RACE 7 - The San Francisco Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 G. G. Ryder (ML 5-1)
# 6 Alert Bay (ML 8-5)
B's
# 4 Many Roses (ML 8-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 3 Patentar (Fr) (ML 5-2)
G. G. Ryder, winner of this event two years back, is making his first turf start since last year's running of this contest, and could improve with the surface switch. Alert Bay, winner of last year's running of this contest, looks to be in top form with his win in a no-condition Allowance race over the Tapeta main track last time out, in a field that contained many that Alert Bay will be facing again today. Many Roses looks to be quickest by far in this field, and could steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Mended (ML 1-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Aly's Last Magic (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sea Myrtle (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bow Tie Belle (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 5 French Tart (ML 15-1)
Mended is a perfect three-for-three since joining the barn of Trainer John Martin, and there's little reason to think that she can't make it four in a row. Aly's Last Magic was victorious last time out in a field that contained a few that are entered in this event. Sea Myrtle defeated open (non-conditioned) claimers last time out and could be the one running best late. Bow Tie Belle, who lost all chance at the break last time out, took the Place in a troubled trip behind Mended two starts back.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 32k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Ryder's Starlight (ML 10-1)
# 7 An Unusual Group (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Top Tizzy (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
Ryder's Starlight got her picture taken three of the last four times that she competed on the turf. An Unusual Group was a winner over this turf course two starts back, and seems to fit best on class. Russian Radiance (GB) will be making her first turf start since coming to North America. Top Tizzy returns off the freshening and will try to take this field from gate to wire.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 2 with 4,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,6 with 2 with 1,4,5,7 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 4,7 $6.00
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:21 EDT / 3:21 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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