12/3/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 The Public Halo (Final Odds 7.20) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Avalanche (8.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 One Tuff Minister (2.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Joe Jackson (2.80*) - "A" & "B" Selection*

* # 6 Sizzling Evening, a "B" Selection, was a late scratch in Race 9.  I therefore received the Post Time Favorite, # 8 Joe Jackson, as his replacement on my tickets.

You know how this works: had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.  Make Avalanche a "B" Selection in the second leg and I collect; actually, thanks to the gate scratch of Sizzling Evening in the nightcap, I collect twice.  But playing it that way would have doubled the cost of the big ticket, as the second leg was where I had singled with # 2 Impression (1.00*), who took the Place in that contest, crossing under the wire a little more than two lengths behind Avalanche.  So instead of collecting Sunday I contribute, with the minor consolation that I won just as much as if I had just put it all on Impression to win.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 6 / 5 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $614.95 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/3/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Maidens are the focus of the back end of the card Sunday at Golden Gate, as three-quarters of the final four races are for non-winners of one.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Iwishiwaspecial (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 The Public Halo (ML 15-1)
# 4 Ernie Banks (ML 8-1)
# 6 Paul's Diva (ML 3-1)
# 8 Charlie Grey (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Dramatic Ride (ML 4-1)

Iwishiwaspecial took the Show at this class level last time out, over this main track, at today's distance.  The Public Halo could be quickest here; and having A. P. Indy as a grandsire suggests that The Public Halo may be able to go around two turns.

Ernie Banks closed well in his debut, and seems to have the breeding to stretch out to two turns.  Paul's Diva may have needed that last race; and Trainer Andy Mathis tends to do well with runners going second off the layoff.  Charlie Grey could be the one running best late.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Impression (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Brulee (ML 5-1)
# 6 Avalanche (ML 9-2)
# 7 Seau (ML 10-1)
# 8 Lion Command (ML 8-1)

Much like Saturday's contest, this event for non-claiming maidens is filled with shippers from downstate, who just couldn't wait for Boxing Day to get on some California grass.

Impression looks much the best here; but Impression is trying a route distance for the first time; and while that gave me pause when sorting out my play, I ultimately decided that the edge he has over the rest of the field, coupled with my desire to spread widely in the opening and closing legs of this sequence, warrants Impression's position as a big ticket single.

Brulee and Avalanche are two that could move up with the change of scenery.  Seau may improve now that he has a turf race under his belt, as runners for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tend to do well when trying grass for the second time.  Lion Command took the Place at this class level last time out, and may appreciate not having to face Six Cider again.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Spanish Eyes (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Mambo Rock (ML 6-1)
# 5 One Tuff Minister (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Chief Banker (ML 20-1)

# 7 West Coast Indy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Get Like Me (ML 4-1)

Spanish Eyes had a bit of a rough go of it last time out, and can be expected to improve off that effort.  Mambo Rock fits well here on class, and seems to bring his race with him regardless of surface.  One Tuff Minister produced some fine results when previously with the barn of Trainer Tim McCanna.

Chief Banker is racing above his conditions, having just graduated last time out (note that this is a N2X, not a N2L); but Chief Banker is also the only runner in this field to have finished in the money last time out.  West Coast Indy fits well here on class; but West Coast Indy seems to be  going through a down cycle, and may be in need of a freshening.

RACE 9 - Md $8k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Joe Jackson (ML 8-5)
# 10 Weiden (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Bold Charmant (ML 8-1)
# 3 Mon Camo (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ronton (ML 10-1)
# 5 Alicias King (ML 30-1)
# 6 Sizzling Evening (ML 10-1)
# 7 Be So Lucky (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Nationwide Fifteen (ML 20-1)
# 9 World Wide Blame (ML 10-1)

Joe Jackson appears best here in this field of juveniles, having taken the Place against more expensive stock in his debut last time out.  But that was back in July, and on dirt to boot; so this one could devolve into chaos.

Weiden ran the best race of his career the only prior time that he competed over this main track, taking the Place against more expensive stock.  Bold Charmant missed graduation by a nose at this class level two starts back.  Mon Camo could improve with the cutback in real estate.

Ronton could move up with the return to the main track.  Alicias King lost all chance at the break in his debut last time out; perhaps he does better today.  Sizzling Evening is a first time starter with Indian Charlie as a grandsire, suggesting that he may be ready to roll at first go round.  Be So Lucky has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two starts.  The "C's" are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 2 with 2 with 8,10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7,8 with 2 with 2,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,6,7,8 with 2 with 8,10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 3,7 with 8,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 2 with 2,9 $1.00

Total: $69.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/2/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 5 Glory and Power (Final Odds 2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Gold Rush - # 10 City Plan (24.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Sixes (2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Bornonvalentineday (2.80) - "A" Selection

Was it the first time Lasix that made the difference for City Plan Saturday?  Or was it the change of surface that allowed City Plan to make up the thirteen lengths that he had finished behind # 7 Ayacara (GB) (0.90*) last time out in the Grade 1 Frontrunner?  Well, whatever it was that gave the Godolphin owned City Plan the edge today, the three quarters of a length difference between him and Ayacara at the wire was the difference Saturday between me collecting or contributing.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 10 / 7 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $3,881.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/2/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

It's back to Golden Gate Fields this weekend, where Saturday's featured race is the $75k Gold Rush for juveniles.  I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Paddy Jean (Morning Line 7-2)

# 10 Bee Sweet (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Glory and Power (ML 4-1)

# 9 Gee Street (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Christiana's Song (ML 6-1)
# 7 Boldest Vow (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 C C Rocks (ML 15-1) who was entered for the main track only

There are quite a few shippers coming in from downstate for this contest, no doubt motivated by the fact that there's no turf racing in SoCal until after Christmas.  Paddy Jean should move up with the return to the flats, while Bee Sweet should move up with a cleaner trip.  Glory and Power may appreciate the change in locale.

Gee Street disappointed as the Post Time Favorite with the blinkers on last time out.  Saturday the hood comes off as Gee Street makes her first start for Trainer Steve Sherman, who tends to do well with such.  Christiana's Song and Boldest Vow filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out.

RACE 7 - The Gold Rush $75k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Night At the Opera (ML 10-1)

# 8 Respect the Hustle (ML 9-2)

B's

# 6 Vutzak (ML 5-1)

# 7 Ayacara (GB) (ML 2-1)

# 9 Afleet Ascent (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Generally Lucky (ML 15-1)

# 3 Mesa Jones (ML 20-1)

# 5 La Waun (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Zippy Groom (ML 30-1)

Respect the Hustle and Night At the Opera filled out the Exacta in the Oak Tree Juvenile back in September.  Night At the Opera has the added bonus of having won his only prior try over this main track.

Vutzak took a big step forward last time out, his first time on a synthetic surface; perhaps he likes the way it feels.  Ayacara (GB) should appreciate the class relief.  Afleet Ascent fought back well last time out.

Generally Lucky seems to hold his for well regardless of the surface, and may be quick enough to hold the rail position.  Mesa Jones could be the one running best late.  La Waun probably prefers real dirt; but La Waun may get a nice stalking trip in this contest.

RACE 8 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Sahara Storm (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Monsajem Pervade (ML 6-1)

# 7 Sixes (ML 2-1)

C's

# 12 Kittenmeister (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Singaprayer (ML 20-1) and # 14 This Town (ML 10-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, # 1 Six Gun Smokin (ML 30-1), # 2 The Ref (ML 30-1), # 5 Smoked too Many (ML 12-1), and # 6 Monsajem Pervade (ML 6-1) are the four runners in this field to have visited the winner's circle more than once.

Sahara Storm took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Monsajem Pervade has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Sixes graduated with ease last time out over the main track, and could be the quickest in this field.  Kittenmeister took the Place at this class level two starts back behind a next out winner.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Big Base (ML 5-2)

# 6 Bornonvalentineday (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 8 Californiafusaichi (ML 15-1)

# 9 She's an Eagle (ML 8-1)

Big Base won the speed duel but lost the race in her debut last time out.  Bornonvalentineday took the Show at this class level last time out.  Californiafusaichi was quick early in her debut last time out.  She's an Eagle showed some early foot last time out, perhaps a sign that she's ready to roll.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,10 with 2,8 with 4 with 1,6 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5,9,10 with 2,6,7,8,9 with 4,6,7 with 1,6 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,8 with 4 with 1,6 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,3,5 with 4 with 1,6 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 2,8 with 12 with 1,6 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 2,8 with 4 with 8,9 $4.00

Total: $86.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Divisor (Final Odds 3.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 8 Off Limits (Ire) - (4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Allianna (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 2 Analyze It (0.50*) - "A" Selection

As is often the case, a race that appears to be indecipherable is correctly solved by the public; as the opening leg, which looked oh so complex on paper, is won by the Post Time Favorite, Divisor.  Fortunately I didn't panic and punch the "ALL" button for that contest; but I did err in not having the winner as an "A" Selection, and it cost me.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 5 Armour Plate (26.70) - $1,164.45 Finish: 10th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 8 / 6 / 2  which paid $47.95 for a fifty cent wager.  Since my initial investment was $60.50, I cash at a loss of twelve dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/26/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

And so we reach the end of the holiday weekend; which, as it turns out, is also the final day of Del Mar's Fall meeting.  As was the case Saturday, there are three Graded Stakes on the Del Mar card Sunday; two of which are among the final four contests.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Secret Touch (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Quality Line (ML 8-1)
# 6 Desert General (ML 9-2)
# 9 Divisor (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 5 Upperclassman (ML 5-1)
# 8 Street to Indy (ML 6-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; no exemptions.

Secret Touch has taken the Show at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Quality Line could move up with the return to one turn racing over this main track.  Desert General missed victory by a nose at this class level two starts back.

Divisor broke his maiden last time out; Trainer Phil D'Amato tends to do well when placing his last out graduates.  Also note that Divisor is the only runner in this field that did not compete at this class level in his last race.

Rolls Royce Deal took the Place at this class level last time out.  Street to Indy and Upperclassman filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire within a half length of each other.

RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Cambodia (ML 3-1)
# 8 Off Limits (Ire) (ML 5-1)

B's

# 9 Rubilinda (ML 10-1)
# 12 Kitten's Roar (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Lull (ML 5-1)
# 3 Pretty Girl (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Mrs McDougal (ML 15-1)

Cambodia took the Show in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf over this course last time out.  Off Limits (Ire) has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire in each of her last eight races.  Rubilinda, like Off Limits, is trained by Chad Brown; and while Rubilinda enters this event having won a pair of Listed Stakes, she may not yet be on the same class level as her stablemate.

Kitten's Roar was the easy winner of the Grade 2 Goldikova over this turf course last time out.  Lull and Hawksmoor (Ire) are two that should be forwardly placed early, while Pretty Girl (Arg) is one that could be running best late. 

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Allianna (ML 5-2)

B's

# 8 Uno Trouble Maker (ML 12-1)
# 11 Tell Your Mama (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Zusha (ML 12-1)

# 5 Toinette (ML 12-1)

# 7 Pacific Kitty (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 13 Travieza (ML 6-1) and # 14 Mischievous Song (ML 4-1), as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible list.

Allianna, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level in her debut last time out.  Uno Trouble Maker is sired by Successful Appeal, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Also note that Uno Trouble Maker's dam (Hope and Vow) also produced Ethan's Baby, who was a debut winner as well as a Listed Stakes winner as a two year old.

Tell Your Mama returns to a more realistic class level after barely picking up her feet in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Zusha and Toinette have the pedigree to suggest that they will do well at first asking, while Pacific Kitty looks to have been handling the track well in her morning workouts.

RACE 9 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Analyze It (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Amour Plate (ML 8-1)

C's

# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 5-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Inscom (ML 7-2)

Analyze it did nothing wrong last time out in his Belmont debut for Trainer Chad Brown.  A repeat of that performance should get Analyze It into the Winner's Circle today.

Amour Plate took the Show in the Zuma Beach last time out, and seems well suited to today's distance.  Pubilius Syrus in each of his three turf starts.  Choo Choo ran well last time out after being steadied at the start.  Inscom was within a nose of Pubilius Syrus at the wire two starts back, and won for fun last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,6,9 with 7,8,9,12 with 6,8,11 with 2,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,8 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,10 with 6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 3,5,7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 6,8,9 $3.00

Total: $60.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo