“You will never find anybody who can give you a clear and compelling reason why we observe daylight saving time.” - Dave Barry
Welcome to the first Saturday in March; and (for most US residents) the final day of standard time, not to be experienced again in these parts again until November. So with that bit of current events out of the way let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Purple Martin (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 1 Athary (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 9 Complete (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Untapped Fire (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nessum Dorma (ML 8-1)
# 4 Bird Key (ML 15-1)
# 5 Eden (ML 3-1)
# 6 Mollys Melodie (ML 20-1)
# 8 Smashville (ML 30-1)
# 10 Alexandra Thirteen (ML 15-1)
Purple Martin took the Show at this class level at today's distance last time out. Complete and Athary (Ire) (the only runner in this field not bred in Kentucky) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.
I don't know why, but Nessum Dorma is listed in my Past Performances as having the equipment change "Blinkers On;" which is kinda odd, since Nessum Dorma has worn blinkers in each of her two more recent races. If that is something other than a human error somewhere, please let us know in the comments below. Anyway, the backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field, including Nessum Dorma.
RACE 6 - Clm $7.5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Pioneer Dancer (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Solo Drink (ML 8-1)
# 3 High Powered (ML 8-1)
# 4 Big Iron (ML 4-1)
# 6 Purr Cat (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Gunny Roo (ML 15-1)
# 8 Barin (ML 8-1)
# 9 Resistance Jak (ML 30-1)
# 10 Fred's Country Boy (ML 20-1)
# 11 Fighting for Grace (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Grade (ML 9-2)
Pioneer Dancer should benefit from the class drop, as well as from going third off the layoff. Note also that Pioneer Dancer was victorious two of the previous three times that he competed over this track.
Solo Drink took took the Place at this class level two starts back in front of a next out winner. High Powered seemed to wake up with the class drop last time out, flashing some early foot. Big Iron could improve with the return to synthetic.
Purr Cat took the Place at this class level last time out in front of a next out winner. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Surreptitious (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Island Betty (ML 30-1)
# 2 Seminole Sisters (ML 10-1)
# 3 Sway to Go (ML 6-1)
# 4 Claudette Nonstop (ML 7-2)
# 5 Just a Look (ML 3-1)
# 6 Daisy Jane (ML 30-1)
# 7 Thrombocytopenia (ML 12-1)
# 8 La Monse (ML 20-1)
# 9 Moonlight Dancing (ML 6-1)
Surreptitious took the Place against the boys at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire a half length in front of a next out winner. If you'd rather not single here, there are certainly other good runners in this field (for example, Claudette Nonstop, Just a Look, and Moonlight Dancing) but, in my humble opinion, Surreptitious looks clearly best here. So I'll be going one deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N1Y - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Henny Hefner (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Heat Road (ML 8-1)
# 2 Confection Fortune (ML 7-2)
# 4 Salty Rim (ML 4-1)
# 6 Stately Oak (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 J Dub (ML 10-1)
# 5 Forrest Warrior (ML 30-1)
# 7 Hugh B (ML 15-1)
# 8 Triple Delight (ML 12-1)
# 10 Northern Ranger (ML 20-1)
# 11 Dujac (ML 20-1)
# 12 A Nice Rendition (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 1A Zen Papa (was part of an entry) and # 13 Pequeno Grande (ML 8-1)
The Past Performances that I have give this contest as an N1X; but the conditions, which state that this race is restricted to runners which have not won a race since March 7, 2019, indicate that this is actually an N1Y. Note that when determining eligibility races for $4k or less don't count; just in case you were wondering why Confection Fortune, who has visited the Winner's Circle multiple times in the past three hundred and sixty-six days, is allowed to run here.
Henny Hefner, Heat Road, and Confection Fortune could benefit from the reduction in real estate that they will have to cover compared to their last out contest. I'm giving the edge to Henny Hefner, but I would be comfortable with any one of those three as my top pick.
Salty Rim could move up with the class drop. Stately Oak could be the speed of the speed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 7 with 10 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,7,9 with 2,3,4,6,7 with 10 with 1,2,4,6,9 $37.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 7 with 10 with 9 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,8,9,10,11 with 10 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 9 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 7 with 10 with 3,5,7,8,10,11,12 $3.50
Total: $52.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment