6/5/21 Belmont Park Belmont Stakes Pick Four - Preview

"To maintain success, stamina is more important than talent. You have to learn to be a marathon runner." - Joan Rivers

When the Belmont Stakes was run last year the winner of the Kentucky Derby was unknown, as that contest had yet to be run.  This year, on Belmont Stakes Day, the winner of the Kentucky Derby is in doubt, as Medina Spirit's failed drug tests make it quite likely that he will be disqualified.  But so much for that, at least for now, as it's time to turn our attention to the third leg of the Triple Crown, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.

RACE 8 - (F) The Just a Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A's

# 4 Regal Glory (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 1 Zofelle (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 30-1)

# 9 Summer Romance (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 5 Always Shopping (ML 12-1)

# 6 Pocket Square (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Abscond (ML 20-1)
# 8 Althiqa (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 10 Tamahere (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 12 New York Girl (Ire) (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Sweet Bye and Bye (ML 12-1) and # 11 Blowout (GB) (ML 4-1)

Regal Glory appears to be in top form entering this event.  Zofelle (Ire) could be the one running best late.  Daddy Is a Legend could move up going second off the layoff.

With the scratch of Blowout (GB), Summer Romance (Ire) projects to be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Knicks Go (ML 6-5)

B's

# 1 Mischevious Alex (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Dr Post (ML 9-2)

# 3 Silver State (ML 7-2)

# 4 Lexitonian (ML 20-1)

# 5 By My Standards (ML 10-1)

If Knicks Go returns to the form he showed prior to the Saudi Cup, then Knicks Go will win this contest before the others even know that a race is being run.  However, should Knicks Go falter, I think that Mischevious Alex is the one most likely to get his picture taken when this event is over.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 10 Colonel Liam (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Domestic Spending (GB) (ML 3-1)

# 6 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 8 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 City Man (ML 15-1)
# 2 Bye Bye Melvin (ML 30-1)
# 3 Masteroffoxhounds (ML 20-1)

# 5 Master Piece (Chi) (ML 6-1)

# 7 Channel Cat (ML 12-1)

# 9 Gufo (ML 5-1)

Colonel Liam and Domestic Spending (GB) dead heated last time out in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs; and it would shock no one if those two were to do it again today.  I give a slight edge to Colonel Liam based upon the increased distance.

Rockemperor (Ire) has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in four of his last five starts.  But while Rockemperor seems to settle for far too many minor awards, Rockemperor is not easily tossed, as he is far too talented to leave off the main ticket.  Tribhuvan (Fr) surprised with some early foot last time out; perhaps 2021 will be a big year for Tribhuvan.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 Rombauer (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Essential Quality (ML 2-1)

# 4 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 7-2)

# 6 Known Agenda (ML 6-1)

# 7 Rock Your World (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Bourbonic (ML 15-1)

# 5 France Go de Ina (ML 30-1)

# 8 Overtook (ML 20-1)

Rombauer had been showing steady improvement leading up to his victory in the Preakness last time out, and there's no reason why that Rombauer shouldn't continue to improve.  Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta last time out in the Kentucky Derby, and both could benefit from the freshening of having skipped the Preakness.

If Known Agenda can find the form that he showed in winning the Florida Derby two starts back, then Known Agenda can certainly pull the upset today.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of early speed in this field; so if Rock Your World can dispose of France Go de Ina early, then Rock Your World will be tough to run down late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 6 with 10 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1,6 with 4,6,8,10 with 2,3,4,6,7 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6,7,8,10,12 with 6 with 10 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,5 with 10 with 3 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7,9 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 10 with 1,5,8 $1.50

Total: $90.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo