12/26/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"If you don't set goals high, you're not trying.  Always push yourself and go after your dreams." - Todd Helton

I hope all of you who celebrate had a very merry Christmas; and I hope all of you who don't celebrate had a super Saturday.  And just as sun follows moon and moon follows sun, so too does Boxing Day follow Christmas Day.  And as is traditional, Boxing Day brings with it Opening Day at Santa Anita, which is always a joyful occasion.  However, there is a cloud attached to this silver lining, as along with all his other gifts Santa brought Arcadia, California a whole lot of rain water; so all races that had been carded for the grass Sunday have been moved off the turf, including the three Graded Stakes.  So while the card won't be what we had hoped it would be, I'm not going to let circumstances rain on my parade; as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Livingmybestlife (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 4 Private Mission (ML 8-5)

# 5 Missy P. (ML 5-2)

# 6 Brilliant Cut (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Canoodling (ML 8-1)

# 2 Eddie's New Dream (ML 15-1)

# 3 Kalypso (ML 5-1)

Note that the connections of Eddie's New Dream, who was cross-entered in the Grade 1 American Oaks (Race 11 below) have chosen to run her here instead; a decision that was made prior to the American Oaks being moved off the turf.

Livingmybestlife appears to be in top form, and Livingmybestlife should not be disadvantaged by the turnback in distance.  Private Mission should benefit from the class relief, though seven furlongs may not be Private Mission's best distance.

Missy P. looks to improve with the return to the main track.  Brilliant Cut could do well off the freshening.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF

A's

# 1 Fantail (GB) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Super Game (ML 5-1)

# 6 Kalon (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Rapid Transit (ML 15-1)

# 8 Another Eddie (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 3 Ultimate Hy (ML 4-1); # 5 Glesga Gal (Ire) (ML 10-1); # 7 Inner Beauty (Ire) (ML 8-1); and # 9 Xmas Surprise (ML 8-1)

Even with the move to the main track, in my opinion Fantail (GB) looks best in this field, as Fantail's breeding and dirt works suggest that she will run just fine over the main track.  Super Game took the Place the last time she competed on dirt despite taking the scenic route to the wire.

Kalon, a daughter of Bernardini, should experience no problems with the surface switch.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Flightline (ML 4-5)

B's

# 4 Dr. Schivel (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Baby Yoda (ML 6-1)
# 2 Timeless Bounty (ML 20-1)
# 3 Stilleto Boy (ML 12-1)

# 6 Team Merchants (ML 20-1)
# 7 Triple Tap (ML 5-1)

If Flightline repeats the runs that he had in his first two career starts, then Flightline will get his picture taken again today.  But sometimes horses don't run as fast against stronger competition as they do against weaker opponents; so for that reason I've decided to include Dr. Schivel on my main ticket for this leg.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF

A's

# 6 Charges Dropped (ML 20-1)

B's

# 1 Fluffy Socks (ML 3-1)

# 4 Nicest (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 5 Going Global (Ire) (ML 9-5)

# 7 Burgoo Alley (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 9 Queen Goddess (ML 8-1)

# 11 Single Soul (GB) (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Core Values (ML 30-1)

# 3 Closing Remarks (ML 6-1)

# 8 Ivy League (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 10 Eddie's New Dream (No Line), who was cross-entered in Race 8 (above)

Charges Dropped is a daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, and Charges Dropped had a sharp four furlong bullet workout over this main track a week ago today; so why not?  Fluffy Socks had a nice workout over this main track last week as well, suggesting that Fluffy Socks should run well today.

Nicest (Ire) is a daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, so the main track breeding is certainly there.  Going Global (Ire) will be the one to beat if her turf form carries over to the main track; but it's fair to wonder if Going Global's lack of early speed will leave her with too much to do in the latter stages of this contest.

Burgoo Alley (Ire) had a nice workout over the Del Mar main track back in September, suggesting that Burgoo Alley can contend on the dirt.  Queen Goddess is a daughter of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker and is out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare.

Single Soul (GB) can certainly handle today's distance; if Single Soul can also handle the surface switch, then Single Soul could be the one still going strong while others are slowing down.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 1,2,6 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,6,7,9,11 $84.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3 with 1 with 5 with 6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,8 with 5 with 6 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 1,2,3,6,7 with 6 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 5 with 2,3,8 $1.50

Total: $91.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 5:44 EST / 2:44 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo