1/30/22 Sam Houston Race Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“If you really want to learn the attitude of how to handle risk, losing, and failure, go to San Antonio and visit the Alamo.  The Alamo is a great story of brave people who chose to fight, knowing there was no hope of success against overwhelming odds.” - Robert Kiyosaki

Sunday is Houston Racing Festival Day, the premier day of the Sam Houston Race Park live racing season.  To mark the occasion the good people in Southeast Texas have put together a tremendous card, chock full of stakes and full fields.  So let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Sam Houston Race Park.

RACE 8 - The John B Connally Turf Cup (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Tide of the Sea (Morning Line 10-1)

B's

# 1 Conviction Trade (ML 20-1)

# 4 Strong Tide (ML 12-1)

# 8 Logical Myth (ML 6-1)

# 9 Another Mystery (ML 8-1)

# 11 Ajourneytofreedom (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Hierarchy (ML 5-1)
# 5 Decision Maker (ML 15-1)

# 6 Fantasioso (Arg) (ML 9-2)

# 7 Maithael (ML 12-1)

# 10 Dyn O Mite (ML 20-1)
# 12 Parrot Head (ML 30-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Shady McGee (Ire) and # 14 Celerity (ML 50-1)

Tide of the Sea, trained by Mike Maker, won the $100k Japan Turf Cup at Laurel Park last Fall at today's distance.  Expect Tide of the Sea to be up near the pace early, perhaps right behind Conviction Trade, who took the Show in the 2021 running of this event.

Strong Tide did well in winning his tune-up race on the main track at Oaklawn Park.  Logical Myth ditches the hood for Trainer Joe Sharp, whose runners tend to improve when he makes that move.  Logical Myth also looks like a good candidate to improve with the increase in distance.

Another Mystery fits well at this class level.  Ajourneytofreedom missed winning this event last year by just a neck to Spooky Channel.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Stonerside Sprint $75k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Greeley and Ben (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 County Final (ML 9-2)

# 5 Kneedeepinsnow (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Direct Dial (ML 8-1)
# 4 Red N Wild (ML 20-1)

# 6 Top Funner (ML 15-1)

# 10 Mr Money Bags (ML 12-1)

# 11 Bybee (ML 30-1)

# 12 Give It Everything (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 7 Isolate (ML 8-1); # 8 Mojo Man (ML 12-1); and # 9 Verb (ML 20-1)

Were I playing the Jackpot Pick Six rather than The Late Pick Four, I would probably make Greeley and Ben a big ticket single.  However, the fact that Greeley and Ben has never run over this main track is enough reason for me to spread a bit in this leg.

County Final, trained by Steve Asmussen, has good early speed, and County Final could improve with the return to a Fast track.  Kneedeepinsnow will be very tough to beat if he repeats his last out performance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Jersey Lily $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Breeze Rider (ML 7-2)

B's

# 7 Catch a Bid (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Maid of Honor (ML 8-1)
# 3 Lavender (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 4 She'sskysthelimit (ML 15-1)
# 5 Arm Candy (ML 6-1)

# 6 Brandons Babe (ML 20-1)

# 8 Quinn Ella (ML 20-1)
# 9 Shirley's Temple (ML 50-1)

# 10 Lady Gwen (ML 30-1)

# 11 Barista (ML 12-1)

# 13 Valentines Day (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 12 Empress Eleanor (ML 15-1) and # 14 Dr Frances (ML 50-1)

As you can see above, I'm not anticipating any surprises in this leg.  Breeze Rider wanted nothing to do with the sloppy main track at Oaklawn Park last time out, and should return to form with this reunion with the turf.  Catch a Bid went too fast too soon last time out.  Catch a Bid could get the job done today with a nice pressing trip.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 7 Public Information (ML 9-5)

B's

# 8 Paynter Party (ML 9-2)

# 11 Half Ours to Keep (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Hornswoggle (ML 30-1)

# 3 Stans Hookin Bull (ML 15-1)

# 4 Old Sot (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sweet Medicine (ML 15-1)

# 6 Lethal Move (ML 20-1)

# 12 Champs Success (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Horn of Plenty (ML 20-1); # 9 Charlies Ticket (ML 50-1); and # 10 Jackman (ML 10-1)

Public Information looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Paynter Party ran well in her first try over this turf course last time, winning by open lengths.  Half Ours to Keep is going first off the claim for Trainer Steve Asmussen, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 2 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,8,9,11 with 1,2,5 with 2,7 with 7,8,11 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7,10,12 with 2 with 2 with 7 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,4,6,10,11,12 with 2 with 7 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 7 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,12 $3.00

Total: $69.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:23 EST / 3:23 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo