Early last month, while writing about Goldencents' debut, I recommended that Wild Dude, who had also debuted in that same race, be placed on everyone's respective watch list. My recommendation was based on Wild Dude having taken the Place behind Goldencents by over two lengths over the rest of the field in that five and a half furlong sprint.
Well, Wild Dude made his second career start (and his first on real dirt) in Sunday's curtain jerker at Santa Anita. Leaving the gate at Final Odds of 2.8-1, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained two year old colt broke mid-pack and raced evenly throughout the seven furlongs contest; never further back than three lengths from the lead, yet never closer than two lengths from the front. Wild Dude eventually finished fourth, two and a half lengths behind the winner, Super Ninety Nine (4.2-1). Not a performance that does much to flatter Goldencents; but an adequate performance, none-the-less; and certainly one that his connections can build on for the future.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, October 8, 2012
10/6/12 SA Race 7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
About six weeks ago I wrote about Crown Over, a four year old gelding who was claimed for $25k out of Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 by Trainer James Kasparoff. Since Crown Over had left the gate that day at Final Odds of 32.2-1, I was intrigued that a horse that the public viewed as totally over-matched at that class level would be claimed for that price (if you follow this blog regularly, you already know that fascination with longshot claims is a recurring theme).
On Saturday, October 6, Crown Over made his first start off the claim for Kasparoff, running down the hill in Race 7 at Santa Anita Park. The race was a Starter Allowance (NW2L), so it was a step up the class ladder for Crown Over, who went to Post at Final Odds of 12.9-1. According to the chart caller, Crown Over broke ninth, pulled early, was steadied, closed fast on the inside, and finished seventh, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Bev N Bud (5.5-1).
Crown Over's seventh place finish was worth $350 in purse money to his new connections, so he still a ways to go before he brings back that $25k investment to Kasparoff. Or maybe he doesn't. Note that when Crown Over was claimed on August 25, Kasparoff was named as both the new trainer and the new owner. But the chart for Saturday's race lists the owner as Calvin Nguyen. So perhaps Kasparoff has already made his money back on a private sale; or, maybe it was Nguyen's claim all along, and Kasparoff was listed as the new owner as a snafu, or perhaps simply to expedite the paperwork (by the way, if anyone reading this has the full story, please fill us in via the comment section; or, if you prefer, you can just shoot me an email).
Anyway, I'll be keeping Crown Over on my watch list, if for no other reason than to see if he ever does return back the $25k that was shelled out to get him to change barns. Anyone want to offer a prediction on whether or not he'll turn a profit before he changes connections again?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
On Saturday, October 6, Crown Over made his first start off the claim for Kasparoff, running down the hill in Race 7 at Santa Anita Park. The race was a Starter Allowance (NW2L), so it was a step up the class ladder for Crown Over, who went to Post at Final Odds of 12.9-1. According to the chart caller, Crown Over broke ninth, pulled early, was steadied, closed fast on the inside, and finished seventh, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Bev N Bud (5.5-1).
Crown Over's seventh place finish was worth $350 in purse money to his new connections, so he still a ways to go before he brings back that $25k investment to Kasparoff. Or maybe he doesn't. Note that when Crown Over was claimed on August 25, Kasparoff was named as both the new trainer and the new owner. But the chart for Saturday's race lists the owner as Calvin Nguyen. So perhaps Kasparoff has already made his money back on a private sale; or, maybe it was Nguyen's claim all along, and Kasparoff was listed as the new owner as a snafu, or perhaps simply to expedite the paperwork (by the way, if anyone reading this has the full story, please fill us in via the comment section; or, if you prefer, you can just shoot me an email).
Anyway, I'll be keeping Crown Over on my watch list, if for no other reason than to see if he ever does return back the $25k that was shelled out to get him to change barns. Anyone want to offer a prediction on whether or not he'll turn a profit before he changes connections again?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 6, 2012
10/6/12 BEL - Race 8 - The Champagne - Results
Shanghai Bobby (Final Odds 1.65-1), with Jockey Rosie Napravnik on board, made it a perfect four-for-four for his career Saturday by winning The Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park by a comfortable five lengths, paying $5.30 / $2.90 / $2.10. Goldencents (3.70-1) set the early pace, covering the first half mile in 47.45 seconds, and held on for the Place, paying $5.40 / $3.20. Finishing a length behind Goldencents was Fortify (6.20-1) paying $3.20 to Show. The Shanghai Bobby / Goldencents Exacta paid $13.00 for a buck, while the Shanghai Bobby / Goldencents / Fortify Trifecta returned $39.50 for every dollar wagered.
As I mentioned in the preview, The Champagne was a "Win & You're In" race, so Shanghai Bobby has his ticket punched to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; that is, if his connections want it. In this article by David Grening at DRF.com, Jack Wolf, founder of Starlightracing (owner of Shanghai Bobby) is quoted as saying, "I was a believer then [in 2001, with Shanghai Bobby's sire Harlan's Holiday], and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said. “With the exception of last year; last year was unbelievable how they came back. We’ll take our time and decide. I really don’t know what the right answer is right now.” So we'll have to wait and see if Shanghai Bobby will make the trip to Santa Anita next month.
Anyway, there's nothing like hitting a Trifecta cold to help you believe that you might actually know what you're talking about. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while those who prefer their charts in the Daily Racing Form format may view theirs here. If you go to the article by David Grening that I linked to above, you should be able to view a replay of The Champagne.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
As I mentioned in the preview, The Champagne was a "Win & You're In" race, so Shanghai Bobby has his ticket punched to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; that is, if his connections want it. In this article by David Grening at DRF.com, Jack Wolf, founder of Starlightracing (owner of Shanghai Bobby) is quoted as saying, "I was a believer then [in 2001, with Shanghai Bobby's sire Harlan's Holiday], and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said. “With the exception of last year; last year was unbelievable how they came back. We’ll take our time and decide. I really don’t know what the right answer is right now.” So we'll have to wait and see if Shanghai Bobby will make the trip to Santa Anita next month.
Anyway, there's nothing like hitting a Trifecta cold to help you believe that you might actually know what you're talking about. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while those who prefer their charts in the Daily Racing Form format may view theirs here. If you go to the article by David Grening that I linked to above, you should be able to view a replay of The Champagne.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/6/12 BEL - Race 8 - The Champagne - Preview
Saturday's 8th race at Belmont Park is the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, a contest for two year olds run at a distance of eight furlongs over the main dirt track. The race is one of the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races, along with being a Breeders' Cup "Win & You’re In" race. Drawn for a field of seven, six are currently scheduled to enter the gate, as #6 Bern Identity has been scratched.
Any analysis of this field must begin with the trio of entrants trained by Todd Pletcher: #4 Archwarrior (Morning Line 5-2); #2 Shanghai Bobby (ML 3-1), and #7 Micromanage (ML 5-1). Pletcher has trained the Champagne Stakes winner on three separate occasions and, with half of today's field being from his stable, must be considered likely to add another to that number [TRIVIA QUESTION: Which trainer has won the Champagne Stakes the most times? Answer below].
Archwarrior was sired by Arch, the damsire of 2010 Champagne Stakes winner Uncle Mo. Beyond that bit of history, it's hard to see why the racing secretary would make Archwarrior the Morning Line Favorite over Shanghai Bobby, the winner of the Hopeful Stakes last month at Saratoga; if the public should bet according to the Morning Line, Shanghai Bobby would be a very attractive wager indeed. The third horse in Pletcher's stable, Micromanage (ML 5-1), had been cross-entered in the Dover Stakes, where he no doubt would have been the heavy favorite; Pletcher opts instead to face the stiffer competition here, a decision no doubt (at least somewhat) influenced by the favorable outside draw for this one turn mile.
I wrote about #1 Goldencents (ML 3-1) in this blog last month after his impressive debut at Del Mar. I like the courage that Trainer Doug O'Neill shows in shipping this colt cross-country, rather than keeping him at home in Southern California. Goldencents draws the rail, always a concern with young horses; however, keep in mind that Goldencents did his best running late in his debut, suggesting that Jockey Kevin Krigger can allow him to drop back in the early going, rather than fighting for the lead on the inside. It's worth noting that Goldencents' sire, Into Mischief, won twice in three askings as a two year old, including a victory in the 2007 Grade 1 CashCall Futurity.
#5 Fortify (ML 6-1) is certainly one to watch based on pedigree. Fortify's grandsire, Forty Niner, won this race back in 1987, as part of an impressive five-for-six two year old season, which included four graded stakes victories. Fortify's damsire is A. P. Indy, winner of the 1991 Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity as a two year old, and sire of 2000 Champagne Stakes winner A P Valentine. Fortify has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field; and, should the weather turn bad, he also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this group for wet surfaces. Jockey Ramon Dominguez gets the mount today; in his two prior career starts, Fortify was ridden by Joe Bravo
#3 Chief Havoc (ML 15-1) also does well in the pedigree department. The above mentioned A. P. Indy is his damsire; and Chief Havoc's sire is Giant's Causeway, who also sired 2005 Champagne Stakes winner First Samurai. Chief Havoc is the only entrant in this field to have previously competed at today's distance, having twice gone eight furlongs; once on grass, and once on plastic. With all that, it's important to note that Chief Havoc is still a maiden, which makes his placing here rather ambitious.
If all odds were even, my selection here would be #2 Shanghai Bobby; but that's not how this game is played. I've already written of my fondness for #1 Goldencents; if the New York bettors disregard this California invader, he could be a huge overlay. If I choose to play purely for price, then #5 Fortify gets the nod, especially if he gets ignored on the board. I can tell you that my top pick will be one of these three; and if I were playing the multi-race wagers at Belmont today, this is the trio that I would use for this leg. I'll try to post my play in this race prior to post in the Comments section.
Good luck to all.
ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The trainer with the most wins in the Champagne Stakes is Nick Zito, with five (1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2007).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Any analysis of this field must begin with the trio of entrants trained by Todd Pletcher: #4 Archwarrior (Morning Line 5-2); #2 Shanghai Bobby (ML 3-1), and #7 Micromanage (ML 5-1). Pletcher has trained the Champagne Stakes winner on three separate occasions and, with half of today's field being from his stable, must be considered likely to add another to that number [TRIVIA QUESTION: Which trainer has won the Champagne Stakes the most times? Answer below].
Archwarrior was sired by Arch, the damsire of 2010 Champagne Stakes winner Uncle Mo. Beyond that bit of history, it's hard to see why the racing secretary would make Archwarrior the Morning Line Favorite over Shanghai Bobby, the winner of the Hopeful Stakes last month at Saratoga; if the public should bet according to the Morning Line, Shanghai Bobby would be a very attractive wager indeed. The third horse in Pletcher's stable, Micromanage (ML 5-1), had been cross-entered in the Dover Stakes, where he no doubt would have been the heavy favorite; Pletcher opts instead to face the stiffer competition here, a decision no doubt (at least somewhat) influenced by the favorable outside draw for this one turn mile.
I wrote about #1 Goldencents (ML 3-1) in this blog last month after his impressive debut at Del Mar. I like the courage that Trainer Doug O'Neill shows in shipping this colt cross-country, rather than keeping him at home in Southern California. Goldencents draws the rail, always a concern with young horses; however, keep in mind that Goldencents did his best running late in his debut, suggesting that Jockey Kevin Krigger can allow him to drop back in the early going, rather than fighting for the lead on the inside. It's worth noting that Goldencents' sire, Into Mischief, won twice in three askings as a two year old, including a victory in the 2007 Grade 1 CashCall Futurity.
#5 Fortify (ML 6-1) is certainly one to watch based on pedigree. Fortify's grandsire, Forty Niner, won this race back in 1987, as part of an impressive five-for-six two year old season, which included four graded stakes victories. Fortify's damsire is A. P. Indy, winner of the 1991 Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity as a two year old, and sire of 2000 Champagne Stakes winner A P Valentine. Fortify has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field; and, should the weather turn bad, he also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this group for wet surfaces. Jockey Ramon Dominguez gets the mount today; in his two prior career starts, Fortify was ridden by Joe Bravo
#3 Chief Havoc (ML 15-1) also does well in the pedigree department. The above mentioned A. P. Indy is his damsire; and Chief Havoc's sire is Giant's Causeway, who also sired 2005 Champagne Stakes winner First Samurai. Chief Havoc is the only entrant in this field to have previously competed at today's distance, having twice gone eight furlongs; once on grass, and once on plastic. With all that, it's important to note that Chief Havoc is still a maiden, which makes his placing here rather ambitious.
If all odds were even, my selection here would be #2 Shanghai Bobby; but that's not how this game is played. I've already written of my fondness for #1 Goldencents; if the New York bettors disregard this California invader, he could be a huge overlay. If I choose to play purely for price, then #5 Fortify gets the nod, especially if he gets ignored on the board. I can tell you that my top pick will be one of these three; and if I were playing the multi-race wagers at Belmont today, this is the trio that I would use for this leg. I'll try to post my play in this race prior to post in the Comments section.
Good luck to all.
ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The trainer with the most wins in the Champagne Stakes is Nick Zito, with five (1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2007).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, October 5, 2012
The Road to the Kentucky Derby
As I'm sure most of you reading this are already aware, qualifying for next year's Kentucky Derby is going to be somewhat different than it has been in years past. Actually, it's going to be a lot different.
Previously, entrants to the Kentucky Derby (of which there are a maximum of twenty) were determined based upon who had the most graded-stakes earnings. Starting in 2013, qualifying entrants will be determined based upon a new system that rewards points to the top four finishers in thirty-six designated races. Included among the three dozen designated races are every graded-stakes scheduled to be run in 2013 for three year olds on a dirt track, at a distance of a mile or more, prior to the first Saturday in May. Well, not every race in that category. Can you guess who got screwed?
Anyway, the chase for the Kentucky Derby has already begun, with last month's running of Royal Lodge Stakes in Newmarket, England, along with the race formerly known as the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. Current standings in the chase can be found here.
OK; the new system was announced this summer; the chase races began last month: so why am I blogging about this today? Well, it's because I just stumbled upon what I think is a pretty neat graphic of The Road to the Kentucky Derby, which I'm going to try to share here. So here goes:
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Infographic
And let's not forget the ladies:
Road to the Kentucky Oaks - Infographic
Hopefully the above show up OK. If not, please let me know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Previously, entrants to the Kentucky Derby (of which there are a maximum of twenty) were determined based upon who had the most graded-stakes earnings. Starting in 2013, qualifying entrants will be determined based upon a new system that rewards points to the top four finishers in thirty-six designated races. Included among the three dozen designated races are every graded-stakes scheduled to be run in 2013 for three year olds on a dirt track, at a distance of a mile or more, prior to the first Saturday in May. Well, not every race in that category. Can you guess who got screwed?
Anyway, the chase for the Kentucky Derby has already begun, with last month's running of Royal Lodge Stakes in Newmarket, England, along with the race formerly known as the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. Current standings in the chase can be found here.
OK; the new system was announced this summer; the chase races began last month: so why am I blogging about this today? Well, it's because I just stumbled upon what I think is a pretty neat graphic of The Road to the Kentucky Derby, which I'm going to try to share here. So here goes:
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Infographic
And let's not forget the ladies:
Road to the Kentucky Oaks - Infographic
Hopefully the above show up OK. If not, please let me know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
9/29/12 STK Race 8 - The Crowd Gets It Right
On one or two occasions in this blog, I've pointed out times when the California betting public had lost its way with regards to properly predicting the outcome of a race. That being the case, it seems only fair that I make mention of a race that the crowd absolutely nailed.
The finale at Stockton this past Saturday was a $4,000 Claiming event for three year old and upward, non-winners of two lifetime. It was run at a distance of eight furlongs over God-made dirt, with seven horses going to post. Jockey Russell Baze was aboard the winner (surprise, surprise) giving him his third win on the day.
So what was it that made this race so special? Well, take a look at the complete order of finish, along with each entrant's Final Odds:
Bespoke Suit.....................0.90
Jones Brother....................1.50
Mustang Casino...............12.80
Idoitmyway Baby..............14.00
Fishing My Way...............16.00
El Tejon...........................17.40
Heray Lucky Pulpit...........20.40
The favorite, the public's top choice according to their wagering dollars, was victorious. The public's second choice took the Place. The public's third choice took the Show. And so on, all the way down the line; each of the seven horses in the race finished in the exact order of their final odds.
Well done, betting public; well done. That just doesn't happen all that often in races where more than a half dozen entrants leave the gate.
The public's reward for being perfectly correct in predicting the outcome of the race is that a lot of people got to cash a lot of tickets for not a lot of money. The prices for Race 8:
#.......HORSE..................WIN.........PLACE..........SHOW
8.......Bespoke Suit........$3.80.........$2.20.............$2.20
5.......Jones Brother........................$2.60..............$2.40
7.......Mustang Casino..........................................$4.00
$1 Exacta ------------------- $3.70
$2 Quinella ----------------- $4.40
$1 Trifecta ---------------- $14.00
$1 Superfecta ----------- $59.50
$1 Super High Five ---$105.10
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here. And, since it's such a special event, let's throw in a link to the Brisnet chart of the race as well, which can be found over here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The finale at Stockton this past Saturday was a $4,000 Claiming event for three year old and upward, non-winners of two lifetime. It was run at a distance of eight furlongs over God-made dirt, with seven horses going to post. Jockey Russell Baze was aboard the winner (surprise, surprise) giving him his third win on the day.
So what was it that made this race so special? Well, take a look at the complete order of finish, along with each entrant's Final Odds:
Bespoke Suit.....................0.90
Jones Brother....................1.50
Mustang Casino...............12.80
Idoitmyway Baby..............14.00
Fishing My Way...............16.00
El Tejon...........................17.40
Heray Lucky Pulpit...........20.40
The favorite, the public's top choice according to their wagering dollars, was victorious. The public's second choice took the Place. The public's third choice took the Show. And so on, all the way down the line; each of the seven horses in the race finished in the exact order of their final odds.
Well done, betting public; well done. That just doesn't happen all that often in races where more than a half dozen entrants leave the gate.
The public's reward for being perfectly correct in predicting the outcome of the race is that a lot of people got to cash a lot of tickets for not a lot of money. The prices for Race 8:
#.......HORSE..................WIN.........PLACE..........SHOW
8.......Bespoke Suit........$3.80.........$2.20.............$2.20
5.......Jones Brother........................$2.60..............$2.40
7.......Mustang Casino..........................................$4.00
$1 Exacta ------------------- $3.70
$2 Quinella ----------------- $4.40
$1 Trifecta ---------------- $14.00
$1 Superfecta ----------- $59.50
$1 Super High Five ---$105.10
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here. And, since it's such a special event, let's throw in a link to the Brisnet chart of the race as well, which can be found over here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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