8/22 - 8/23/12 DMR - The Crowd Gets It Wrong

Race 1 at Del Mar on August 22 was a Starter Allowance (NW2L) for two year olds that drew what's known in California as a full field of four.  Crossing the wire first was the 6-5 favorite Monument, paying $4.40 / $2.60 / $2.00 (sorry, there's no Show wagering in California when only one of the entrants will finish out of the money).

Race 5 at Del Mar on August 23 was a Claiming Race ($10k-$9K) for three year olds and upward run over six and a half furlongs on the it's not really dirt main track.  The winner was the 9-5 favorite Celestic Night, paying $5.60 / $3.60 / $2.80.

Between those two events there were eleven races run at Del Mar.  And what did they all have in common?  Answer: None of them was won by the Post Time favorite.  For eleven straight races the public was unable to pick the winner.

Now, if I was better at math, I would tell you the exact probability of the Post Time favorite going on a double digit losing streak.  I mean, if you figure that the favorite, on average, wins approximately a third of the time, then it should win approximately three out of every ten races; so for the favorite to go eleven straight races without coming in first should happen only every, um, err....that is, it should occur with a frequency of once out of every, um......hmmm.....well, it just shouldn't happen all that often.  

For the record, here are the Post Time favorites for each of the eleven races, and where they finished:

RACE............................FAVORITE..................FINAL ODDS..........FINISH

8/22/12 DMR 2.............Half Dome Dude..............2.4-1.....................Fourth
8/22/12 DMR 3.............Glee (GB).......................2.8-1.....................Seventh
8/22/12 DMR 4.............Bold Agressor.................1.8-1.....................Third
8/22/12 DMR 5.............Toruk Makto...................1.5-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 6.............Budidinha.......................3.5-1......................Fifth
8/22/12 DMR 7.............Maker Or Breaker............1.2-1......................Second
8/22/12 DMR 8.............Bila Shaka......................3.4-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 1.............Miss Reditore..................1.5-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 2.............God Of War (BRZ)...........1.1-1......................Fourth
8/23/12 DMR 3.............Rhodium.........................1.0-1......................Third
8/23/12 DMR 4.............Missdealornodeal.............2.9-1.....................Second

Peace and Love,

Jimbo