5/25/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Charles Whittingham - # 3 Marckie's Water (Final Odds 2.40) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - The Triple Bend - # 6 Air Strike (12.70) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 2 Jamminwithbrandon (22.10) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - # 8 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (3.10) - "A" Selection

My play certainly started well and ended well, with "A" Selections taking both turf contests.  But I had no part, except as backup picks, of the Jockey Norberto Arroyo Jr Double in the middle (a Double which, incidentally, was worth $602.80 for a two dollar wager).  Had "A" Selection # 2 Cistron (5.90) been a head quicker in getting under the wire in the Triple Bend then I would have collected; but he wasn't; and for that reason, Saturday was instead a day for me to contribute.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 6 / 2 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $4,416.95 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/25/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God such men lived." -George S. Patton

It's Memorial Day Weekend (formerly Decoration Day) in the USA, and my hope for each of you is that, wherever you may be, you are free to peacefully enjoy this weekend (as well as each and every day) in a manner of your own choosing.  For me, a large part of the enjoyment this day and everyday comes from playing the ponies; so with that, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - The Charles Whittingham (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Marckie's Water (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 1 Prime Attraction (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Morse Code (ML 12-1)

# 4 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 8-1)
# 5 United (ML 6-1)

# 6 Tizarunner (ML 7-2)

# 7 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 4-1)

Marckie's Water, a winner last time out in an $80k Optional Claimer and Show runner in the Grade 2 San Luis Rey two starts back, looks to be in top form and appears to be best here.  Prime Attraction is getting some substantial class relief here, and Prime Attraction projects as the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - The Triple Bend (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Cistron (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 American Anthem (ML 5-2)

# 5 Nero (ML 5-1)

# 7 The Hardest Way (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 4 Majestic Eagle (ML 15-1)
# 6 Air Strike (ML 10-1)

# 8 All Out Blitz (ML 8-1)

Cistron was much the best in his return to the main track last time out in the Grade 2 Kona Gold.  American Anthem and Nero are the Bob Baffert trained pair; and while American Anthem is clearly the more accomplished of the two, Nero has shown enough in his brief career to suggest that he can compete at this level.

The Hardest Way is getting a pretty stiff class test here; but if The Hardest Way runs today as he did last time out at Keeneland, then he's going to be right in the mix.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 California Journey (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Rogallo (ML 8-1)

# 6 Meistermind (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Jamminwithbrandon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Beaumarchais (ML 8-1)

# 4 Cool Bobby (ML 3-1)

# 5 Show Me Da Lute (ML 6-1)

# 8 Shaky Alibi (ML 8-1)

California Journey has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Rogello is trying winners for the first time; but he was a debut winner last time out, so, who knows; maybe Rogello is the real deal.

Meistermind took the Place in a first level Allowance at Oaklawn Park last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 He Will (ML 12-1)

# 2 Sejo (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Kenjisstorm (ML 6-1)

# 6 Starting Bloc (ML 8-1)

# 9 The Hunted (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Full of Luck (Chi) (ML 15-1)

# 5 Tule Fog (ML 8-1)

# 7 Maestro Dearte (ML 10-1)

# 10 Unapologetic (ML 8-1)

Oscar Dominguez (Ire) looks best here, as he appears to be rounding into top form.  He Will closed well to win last time out, and He Will could benefit from the added real estate.

Sejo (Ire) and Starting Bloc took the Show at this class level in separate contests last time out.  Kenjisstorm wanted no part of the dirt last time out, and should appreciate a return to the turf.  The Hunted, winner of a state bred only stakes last time out, could improve with the added distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 7 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 1,2,5,7 with 1,6,7 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 7 with 8 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,4,6,8 with 7 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 2,3,4,5,8 with 8 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 7 with 3,5,7,10 $2.00

Total: $82.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:03 EDT / 4:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/18/19 Pimlico Preakness Pick 4 - Results

Race 10 - The Galorett - # 4 Mitchell Road (Final Odds 2.10*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Chick Lang - # 1 Lexitonian (17.00) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The Dixie - # 12 Catholic Boy (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 13 - The Preakness - # 1 War of Will (6.10) - "C" Selection

If you're going to miss, might as well miss spectacularly; for while I did get an "A" Selection home with Catholic Boy in the Dixie, the fact that I used two others along with him on the big ticket shows that I did not have the confidence in him that I should have.  One positive point about missing spectacularly is that I have no reason to feel bad about playing against an obvious contender in War of Will, as my tickets were already resting comfortably in the dustbin by then.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Preakness Pick Four sequence of  4 / 1 / 12 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $1,040.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/18/19 Pimlico Preakness Pick 4 - Preview

Neither winner of this year's Kentucky Derby will be running Saturday in the featured race at Pimlico; thus guaranteeing that the controversy surrounding the Run for Roses earlier this month won't extend into a Triple Crown winner with an asterisk next to his name.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Pimlico ending with the Preakness Stakes.

RACE 10 - (F) The Gallorette (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 I'm So Fancy (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 2 Inflexibility (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Thewayiam (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Mitchell Road (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dynatail (ML 12-1)
# 7 In the Lee (ML 10-1)
# 8 Viva Vegas (ML 5-1)
# 9 Barkaa (Fr) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 6 Hogan's Holiday (ML 15-1)

I'm So Fancy, a Group Stakes winner in her native Ireland, appears to have a class edge over the rest of this field.  Inflexibility, trained by Brad Cox, is making her 2019 debut, and Inflexibility could benefit from her extended vacation.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Chick Lang (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Pyron (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Malpais (ML 3-1)
# 6 Gladiator King (ML 6-1)
# 8 Preamble (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
# 2 Still Dreaming (ML 12-1)
# 4 Admiral Lynch (ML 10-1)
# 5 Cabot (ML 15-1)

# 9 Confessor (ML 15-1)

Pyron and Preamble are both undefeated in their respective careers, while Gladiator King has visited the winner's circle as often as those two have between them.  While Malpais was an easy winner last time out, it's possible that he could improve off that effort with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Dixie (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Catholic Boy (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Just Howard (ML 10-1)

# 11 Inspector Lynley (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Admission Office (ML 12-1)

# 4 Paret (Aus) (ML 20-1)

# 5 Have At It (ML 6-1)

# 7 Real Story (ML 10-1)

# 8 Phlash Phelps (ML 12-1)

# 9 Something Awesome (ML 15-1)

# 10 O Dionysus (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Twenty Four Seven (ML 20-1) and # 6 Flameaway (ML 8-1)

Catholic Boy, a Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf, would probably be a big ticket single here if not for the extended layoff coupled with the far outside draw.  Inspector Lynley is another that, while undeniably capable of winning at this class level, could be disadvantaged by the far outside post.  For that reason I decided to include Just Howard on the big ticket; for while Just Howard is not as classy as Catholic Boy and Inspector Lynley, Just Howard could find himself enjoying a much smoother trip.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Owendale (ML 10-1)

B's

# 4 Improbable (ML 5-2)

# 7 Alwaysmining (ML 8-1)

# 8 Signalman (ML 30-1)

# 11 Laughing Fox (ML 20-1)

# 12 Anothertwistafate (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 War of Will (ML 4-1)

# 2 Bourbon War (ML 12-1)

# 3 Warrior's Charge (ML 12-1)

# 6 Market King (ML 30-1)

# 9 Bodexpress (ML 20-1)

# 10 Everfast (ML 50-1)

# 13 Win Win Win (ML 15-1)

Owendale projects to be one that will be running well late; so for most of this contest, Owendale will probably look like a really poor selection.  Hopefully Owendale won't look like a really poor selection after the race is over.

Improbable is a very good horse who doesn't always run to his potential.  In fact, if you're feeling adventurous, you can cut down on the cost of this play by playing against the Morning Line Favorite and leaving Improbable off the big ticket, as he will be heavily played well beyond his probability of winning.  I'm not in an adventurous type mood; at least, not that adventurous; but if you feel like going for a smaller play with a potential big return, it's something to consider.

Alwaysmining is the local hero, and local heroes tend to do poorly in the Preakness.  But  Alwaysmining is talented enough that he just might pull the upset.  Singnalman and Anothertwistafate should be up close early, while Laughing Fox, like Owendale, is one that will be doing his best running late.

War of Will will once again be disadvantaged by the rail draw; though certainly not to the extent that he was two weeks ago.  But even if Jockey Tyler Gaffalione can work out a trip, War of Will's tactical speed probably won't be enough to get him to the wire in time.  So for that reason, War of Will won't be a part of my main ticket, but will rather join all the others who are also not on the main ticket as a backup "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 7 with 12 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3,6,7,8 with 2,11,12 with 4,5,7,8,11,12 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8,9 with 7 with 12 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5,9 with 12 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 12 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,13 $3.50

Total: $85.50

Post Time for Race 10 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/22/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 7 Jaimi James (Final Odds 3.30) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 If I Had a Nickel (3.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Springtime Dance (2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 El Monarca (41.70) - "C" Selection

In the opening leg, "B" Selection # 5 Rolinga (5.90) was just a head too late in getting to the line and therefore had to settle for the Show.  Certainly not an ideal way to begin a sequence; but it all proved to be moot in the end, as the only way that I was finding El Monarca in the final leg would have been by punching the "ALL" button.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Incidentally, note that, while I wasn't swimming in that pool, The Late Pick Five had zero winners, creating a carryover of $31,804.34 into Sunday's card.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 3 / 6 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $1,318.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/22/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Long story short: I looked at the diminished field sizes of the final four contests on the Santa Anita card, and I decided that I'd rather keep my action in the northern part of the state.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Rolinga (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Aleda Lutz (ML 2-1)
# 6 Simply Perfect (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Princess Vivian (ML 6-1)
# 3 Bounty of Gold (ML 10-1)
# 4 Sweet Susan B (ML 15-1)
# 7 Jaimi James (ML 6-1)

Rolinga may have needed that last race, which was her 2019 debut.  Aleda Lutz may improve off the freshening.  Simply Perfect showed good early speed in her debut last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $3.2k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 If I Had a Nickel (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Lil Awecim (ML 7-2)
# 5 Mia's Storm (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 War Union (ML 4-1)
# 2 Simply Charming (ML 8-1)
# 6 Baby You Got It (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 7 Madi's Thunderbird (ML 5-2)

If I Had a Nickel and Lil Awecim are two that should benefit from the class relief they are getting today.  Mia's Storm, a mare taking on the boys, looks like the one that will be running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Check Six (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Acclaim the Queen (ML 6-1)
# 6 Springtime Dance (ML 7-2)
# 7 Oursensationalgirl (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Red Glitter (ML 30-1)
# 4 Pulpitinthesky (ML 8-1)
# 5 Vacaville Special (ML 10-1)
# 8 Becomes a Queen (ML 8-1)

Check Six and Acclaim the Queen filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track.  Springtime Dance ran well last time out in her first ever try on the turf.  Oursensationalgirl could move up with the return to the lawn.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 When Jesus Walked (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 My Alta (ML 20-1)
# 5 Redneck Stranger (ML 4-1)
# 9 Planet Nine (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Aerial Decoy (ML 2-1)
# 3 Maple Bar (ML 20-1)
# 4 El Monarca (ML 15-1)
# 6 Captain d'Artagnan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Empire Rocket (ML 12-1)

When Jesus Walked will be trying to prove that the eighteenth time's the charm, as he runs for the cheapest tag of his career.  My Alta has shown good early speed in the past against more expensive stock.

Redneck Stranger could be the one running best late.  Planet Nine will be going around two turns for the first time; Planet Nine's breeding suggests that he'll handle the stretch out just fine.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 3 with 3 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,6 with 3,4,5 with 1,3,6,7 with 2,5,7,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,7 with 3 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,6 with 3 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 2,4,5,8 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 3 with 1,3,4,6,8 $2.50

Total: $81.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:48 EDT / 3:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/4/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 3 Digital Age (Ire) (Final Odds 8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Pat Day Mile - # 7 Mr. Money (7.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 12 Bricks and Mortar (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 20 Country House (65.20) - via DQ* - "C" Selection

* # 7 Maximum Security (4.50) crossed under the wire first in Race 12 but was disqualified and placed 17th.

Needless to say, the big story is that, for the first time ever, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was disqualified for interference during the running of the race.  I have my own opinion on the matter; an opinion which is obviously biased by my wagers apart from my Pick Four play, which had gone belly up in the second leg.  But as with any sporting event, the only opinions that matter are those of the officials; and regardless of what anyone may think about how they may have ruled, once that "Official" sign lights up, that's all she wrote.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  3 / 7 / 12 / 20  were rewarded with a payout of $11,325.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/4/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

It's here at last, the first Saturday in May; and now we can see just how well all those winter and early spring prep races have done in pointing us towards the top three year old in North America's biggest race of the year.  This is the horse race where even those who have to stop and think about how many legs your average equine runner has will be tuning in to see what happens.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 A Thread of Blue (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Social Paranoia (ML 10-1)
# 3 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Avie's Flatter (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Marquee Prince (ML 10-1)
# 5 Seismic Wave (ML 8-1)
# 6 Forever Mo (ML 15-1)
# 7 Casa Creed (ML 6-1)
# 9 War Film (ML 15-1)
# 10 Henley's Joy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Weekly Call (ML 30-1)
# 12 The Black Album (Fr) (ML 12-1)
# 13 Louder Than Bombs (ML 20-1)

A Thread of Blue, victor in four of his last five contests, showed last time out that he can win without being the pacesetter; a trait that could prove handy today, as the horse to his immediate left, Social Paranoia, looks to be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.

Digital Age (Ire) could be the one running best late.  Avie's Flatter, winner of the Grade 3 Transylvania last time out, is one that I was tempted to leave off the big ticket, as I didn't think much of that event.  But Avie's Flatter has found the winner's circle in every race of his career but one; and that makes it just too difficult to pass over.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Instagrand (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Durkin's Call (ML 15-1)
# 2 Market King (ML 15-1)
# 3 Dream Maker (ML 15-1)
# 4 Mr Money Bags (ML 20-1)
# 5 Dunph (ML 12-1)
# 6 Tobacco Road (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mr. Money (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 10-1)
# 9 Captain Von Trapp (ML 15-1)
# 11 Frolic More (ML 20-1)
# 12 Everfast (ML 20-1)
# 13 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 30-1)
# 14 Last Judgement (ML 5-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Global Campaign (ML 5-1)

First, good luck to track announcer Travis Stone, who hopefully won't confuse Mr Money Bags with Mr. Money during the call of this race.  As to my play, Instagrand is clearly the best here on paper.  I also don't see a clear standout among the rest; so even if I were to double the cost of my main play by adding another runner to the big ticket, it would just be a stab, as the rest of the field looks to be pretty evenly matched.  So if I'm to cash my main ticket today, then Instagrand must win; but as a hedge, the rest of the field will be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Bricks and Mortar (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 5 Markitoff (ML 10-1)
# 7 Prime Attraction (ML 10-1)
# 9 Synchrony (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 3 Multiplier (ML 20-1)
# 4 Sabador (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Clyde's Image (ML 15-1)
# 8 Breaking the Rules (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ticonderoga (ML 8-1)
# 11 March to the Arch (ML 20-1)
# 13 Next Shares (ML 12-1)

Bricks and Mortar, trained by Chad Brown, enters this contest with a three race winning streak, the last two coming in Graded Stakes.  Qurbaan could improve going second off the layoff.

Markitoff was just a nose behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out.  Prime Attraction has run well on the grass before, and Prime Attraction just might be heading towards the winner's circle before the others can hit their best stride.

Synchrony could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Maximum Security (ML 10-1)

B's

# 2 Tax (ML 20-1)
# 3 By My Standards (ML 20-1)
# 5 Improbable (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vekoma (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tacitus (ML 10-1)
# 14 Win Win Win (ML 15-1)
# 16 Game Winner (ML 5-1)
# 17 Roadster (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 War of Will (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gray Magician (ML 50-1)
# 9 Plus Que Parfait (ML 30-1)
# 10 Cutting Humor (ML 30-1)
# 13 Code of Honor (ML 15-1)
# 15 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 50-1)
# 18 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)
# 19 Spinoff (ML 30-1)
# 20 Country House (ML 30-1)
# 21 Bodexpress (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 Haikal (ML 30-1) and # 12 Omaha Beach (ML 4-1)

Every year I tell myself that I'm only going to use a few runners in the Derby; and every year, well....

Of course, whenever the Post Time Favorite scratches, in any race, that adds a certain amount of chaos to the process.  But even before it was announced that Omaha Beach would not break from the gate, I thought Maximum Security had the best chance of winning.  But then we get closer to the actual date, confidence begins to wane, and, well, there you have it; slightly less than half the field ends up on the big ticket.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8 with 10 with 1,5,7,9,12 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,14,16,17 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 with 10 with 12 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 12 with 7 $6.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 2,3,4,6,8,10,11,13 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 1,4,9,10,13,15,18,19,20,21 $5.00

Total: $111.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/3/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four -

Race 8 - The La Troienne - # 1 She's a Julie (Final Odds 5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Cummings (22.30) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Turf Sprint - # 6 World of Trouble (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Kentucky Oaks - # 13 Serengeti Empress (13.00) - "B" Selection

Mistakes were plentiful Friday.  She's a Julie, winner of the Grade 3 Bayakoa last time out, certainly deserved more consideration than that which I gave her.  I remarked in the preview that World of Trouble should probably have been a big ticket single; and the four year old colt proved that there was no probably about it, winning the Turf Sprint easily.  Even Serengeti Empress, whom I correctly placed on the big ticket, must be included as part of the mistake brigade, because of the multiple times in the preview that I referred to her as Serengeti Express (at least that error I was able to correct).

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Oaks Pick Four sequence of  1 / 3 / 6 / 13  were rewarded with a payout of $2,141.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/3/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four - Preview

Kentucky Derby weekend is now upon us, as Friday the best three year old fillies in the land will be competing for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, highlighting a card chock full of stakes.  As I type this the third race in the sequence that I'm discussing, the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, has not yet been taken off the lawn; but even if that contest should be moved off the grass, my picks will remain as they are.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

RACE 8 - (F) The La Troienne (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Secret Spice (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Teresa Z (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 She's a Julie (ML 7-2)
# 3 Divine Miss Grey (ML 7-2)
# 4 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Mopotism (ML 15-1)
# 6 Chocolate Martini (ML 15-1)
# 10 Viva Forever (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 8 Golden Award (ML 12-1)

Secret Spice looks to be in top form, coming off a daylight victory in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile.  Teresa Z probably needed that last race, and should improve off that effort.

Blue Prize (Arg) is making her 2019 debut, which is why I've made her a "B" Selection here rather than my top pick.  I'm quite certain that Blue Prize is the most talented runner in this field; but Blue Prize showed that she needed one last year when she made her 2018 debut, and that was off a much shorter layoff.  Still, if Blue Prize is ready to roll, this event is hers for the taking.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Solid Wager (ML 5-2)
# 15 Soul Streit (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Knights Key (ML 10-1)
# 12 Fuel the Bern (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 American Tattoo (Arg) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Cummings (ML 12-1)
# 4 Musical America (ML 20-1)
# 6 Strolling (ML 15-1)
# 8 Home Base (ML 15-1)
# 9 Mojo Man (ML 10-1)
# 10 Gray Sky (ML 15-1)
# 11 Tiz Mischief (ML 20-1)
# 13 Transatlantic Kiss (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1A Funny Duck (ML 4-1); # 2 Rugbyman (ML 6-1); and # 14 Cove Blue (ML 15-1)

Solid Wager seems to flourish at the seven furlongs distance, and could be the one running best late.  Soul Streit seems to be advancing well through his conditions after being outclassed in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

Knights Key seems to enjoy the off going, and could be competing with Solid Wager for best late running honors.  Fuel the Bern could improve going second off the layoff.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 2) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 World of Trouble (ML 1-1)

B's

# 8 Undrafted (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Smart Remark (ML 30-1)
# 4 Jazzy Times (ML 20-1)
# 5 Chaos Theory (ML 12-1)
# 7 Angaston (ML 15-1)
# 9 Will Call (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Bound for Nowhere (ML 3-1) and # 2 Mr. Crow (ML 10-1)

World of Trouble looks to be much the best here, and probably should be a big ticket single.  But it is a sprint (turf or not to be determined), and thus the possibility for an upset is that much heightened.  Therefore I'm also including Undrafted on the big ticket, as I think Undrafted has the best shot here at catching World of Trouble on the line.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Bellafina (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Out for a Spin (ML 15-1)
# 7 Jaywalk (ML 8-1)
# 11 Jeltrin (ML 15-1)
# 13 Serengeti Empress (ML 8-1)
# 14 Restless Rider (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Chocolate Kisses (ML 20-1)
# 3 Lady Apple (ML 20-1)
# 5 Flor de La Mar (ML 20-1)
# 6 Positive Spirit (ML 30-1)
# 8 Motion Emotion (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liora (ML 20-1)
# 10 Champagne Anyone (ML 6-1)
# 12 Street Band (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Dunbar Road (ML 5-1) and # 16 Point of Honor (ML 20-1)

The last time Bellafina was the Post Time Favorite over this main track she finished a disappointing fourth, behind both Jaywalk and Restless Rider.  So well Bellafina once again looks clear best among these, it makes sense to be prepared should lightning strike twice.

Out for a Spin could be speed on the rail.  Jeltrin shocked everyone last time out while winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale; maybe she can shock everyone again.  Serengeti Empress bled despite the Lasix last time out, which is more than just a small concern.  But Serengeti Empress has been working extremely well since then; and if she's healthy, Serengeti Empress can definitely win here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,9 with 5,7,12,15 with 6,8 with 1,4,7,11,13,14 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,10 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 with 4 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 3,4,5,7,9 with 4 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12 $8.00

Total: $97.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 2:53 EDT / 11:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo