Race 8 - # 3 Diamond of Blue (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Derby - # 3 Midnight Storm (17.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Gold Medallion (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Halljoy (Ire) (3.30) - "A" Selection
Today's Del Mar Derby showed why a horse loose on the lead, even on turf, is always a tremendous force; as Jockey Tyler Baze had Midnight Storm in front of the pack all the way around the track. Meanwhile Jockey Martin Garcia had his mount, # 2 Sawyer's Hill (12.20) perched in second behind Midnight Storm for most of the race right up to the wire; those who were fortunate enough to have the Midnight Storm / Sawyer's Hill Exacta were rewarded with a return of $140.20 for their one dollar wager. Needless to say, I was not among those who had it.
Diamond of Blue and Halljoy (Ire) were Jockey Rafael Bejarano's fifth and sixth Wins on the day; so congrats to him on an outstanding performance. We were right to doubt # 7 Hawk's Eyes (0.80*) chances in Race 10, and it's always nice to bring home a non-Favorite "A" Selection, as we did with Halljoy; but you're not going to collect if you don't have any part of the Winner of the Featured Race, and that was our fate today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 3 / 1 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $1,267.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 31, 2014
8/31/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
First things first: Tom Durkin's final call is today's Spinaway, Race 10 at Saratoga. Post Time is 5:47 EDT / 2:47 PDT. Be sure to schedule today's activities accordingly. Now onto the Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Diamond of Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Motown Men (ML 6-1)
Diamond of Blue grabbed the early lead his last time out over this main track and never let go, winning by over a half dozen lengths. Diamond of Blue is three-for five for his career over the Del Mar main track, but this is a pretty significant rise in class.
Warren's Joe T. has four lifetime Wins, three of which came over a synthetic surface. Warren's Joe T. took the Place at Sacramento last month on dirt in an Optional Claimer, and followed that up with a bullet work over the Golden Gate synthetic track on August 1. Steady works since suggest that he has kept his form, and his running style of pressing the pace should work well in this field. The addition of Victor Espinoza as rider is a plus.
Dr Action (Arg) was a Graded Stakes winner in Peru, but couldn't hit the board in three tries here in California; so this is a logical move down the class ladder. I don't know if Dr Action will take to the synthetic surface, but you have to respect a horse getting this kind of class relief.
Motown Men won at this level three starts back, and is one-for-two lifetime over the Del Mar main track. If Diamond of Blue falters, it could be Motown Men leading the pack around the track today.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Enterprising (ML 9-5)
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 6 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I see this one as a pretty wide open affair, as it's a Grade 2 stakes without a Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner in the field.
Talco (Fr) is stakes placed in his native France, and (based upon his relatively low Tomlinson Rating for Wet surfaces) should appreciate today's firm course. Note that the Trainer / Jockey tandem of John Sadler / Corey Nakatani has won approximately 23% of their mounts over the past couple of years.
Enterprising is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, having won the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course his last time out. Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby his last time out. Flamboyant defeated both Home Run Kitten and Enterprising back in April in the La Puente.
Home Run Kitten has been in the Trifecta in all three of his turf starts. Home Run Kitten misses by just a neck of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Adventor (Fr) is Group Stakes placed in his native France, and was much the best as the Post Time Favorite in his last contest.
RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 10-1)
# 7 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Gold Medallion (ML 7-2)
# 8 Two Is to Many (ML 10-1)
RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Diamond of Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Motown Men (ML 6-1)
Diamond of Blue grabbed the early lead his last time out over this main track and never let go, winning by over a half dozen lengths. Diamond of Blue is three-for five for his career over the Del Mar main track, but this is a pretty significant rise in class.
Warren's Joe T. has four lifetime Wins, three of which came over a synthetic surface. Warren's Joe T. took the Place at Sacramento last month on dirt in an Optional Claimer, and followed that up with a bullet work over the Golden Gate synthetic track on August 1. Steady works since suggest that he has kept his form, and his running style of pressing the pace should work well in this field. The addition of Victor Espinoza as rider is a plus.
Dr Action (Arg) was a Graded Stakes winner in Peru, but couldn't hit the board in three tries here in California; so this is a logical move down the class ladder. I don't know if Dr Action will take to the synthetic surface, but you have to respect a horse getting this kind of class relief.
Motown Men won at this level three starts back, and is one-for-two lifetime over the Del Mar main track. If Diamond of Blue falters, it could be Motown Men leading the pack around the track today.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Enterprising (ML 9-5)
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 6 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I see this one as a pretty wide open affair, as it's a Grade 2 stakes without a Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner in the field.
Talco (Fr) is stakes placed in his native France, and (based upon his relatively low Tomlinson Rating for Wet surfaces) should appreciate today's firm course. Note that the Trainer / Jockey tandem of John Sadler / Corey Nakatani has won approximately 23% of their mounts over the past couple of years.
Enterprising is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, having won the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course his last time out. Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby his last time out. Flamboyant defeated both Home Run Kitten and Enterprising back in April in the La Puente.
Home Run Kitten has been in the Trifecta in all three of his turf starts. Home Run Kitten misses by just a neck of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Adventor (Fr) is Group Stakes placed in his native France, and was much the best as the Post Time Favorite in his last contest.
RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 10-1)
# 7 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Gold Medallion (ML 7-2)
# 8 Two Is to Many (ML 10-1)
Woodmans Luck won the last race ever at Hollywood Park; and hasn't won since. But the abundance of early speed in this contest coupled with the drop in class makes him a contender in this field.
Hawk's Eyes (Brz) won at this level over this main track at today's distance his last time out. Hawk's Eyes has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; and the Beyer that he earned two starts back would also be the best last-out Beyer in this field. So why isn't Hawk's Eyes singled on my tickets? Because Hawk's Eyes needs the early lead in order to win; and I'm not so sure that he's going to get that early lead today.
Gold Medallion wired the field last time out against slightly less expensive, and with the rail draw could do a repeat performance today. Worth mentioning is that the Trainer / Jockey duo of Trainer Bob Hess / Jockey Kent Desormeaux has won approximately 23% of their starts over the past two years.
Two Is to Many won at this level three starts back, and won against slightly more expensive two starts back. Two Is to Many flopped horribly as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, which was also his debut on a synthetic surface. Perhaps he didn't like the surface; or perhaps he was too anxious to get the lead and couldn't relax. If it's the latter, taking the blinkers off today should help; if it's the former, watch for him when they get back to real dirt.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Halljoy (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Bijoux (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Charm Catcher (ML 6-1)
# 6 See Through (ML 9-2)
# 11 Nighttiming (ML 5-1)
See Through took the Place at this level last time out. This will be See Through's first race not charging down the Santa Anita hill. Halljoy (Ire) took the Place as the odds-on Favorite last time out in Great Britain; a good excuse as any to get out of town and go to the United States.
Charm Catcher finished in the money for the third time in her career at this level last time out; perhaps she just needed some time to figure things out. Bijoux took the Place as the Post Time Favorite at this level in her debut two starts back, and exits a key race. Nighttiming has taken the Place in two of her last three starts at this level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,6 with 5,7 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 1,8 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 5,6,11 $18.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 24, 2014
8/24/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 4 Burning Arch (Final Odds 4.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 5 Goldencents (1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 11 Shared Belief (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 World Famous Sam T (5.10) - "A" Selection
We had to wait out a Stewards' Inquiry in the Pacific Classic, but otherwise there was very little in the way of drama today, as the only runner above who didn't win by daylight was World Famous Sam T in the finale; but another of our "A" Selections, # 1 Industry Leader (3.20* ) took the Place right behind him. Shared Belief demonstrated why he is so highly thought of with his victory today, while Goldencents set a new track record of 1:20.99 while winning by as many as he pleased.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Industry Leader (3.20*) $128.25
# 4 Wholly Hughes (16.10) $317.80
# 5 Navarre (7.00) $204.80
# 6 Charisma Code (6.00) $190.15
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 11 / 12 paid $168.45 for a fifty cent wager, giving us a return of a little less than 3-2 on our $67.50 investment. It may not be much, but like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 5 Goldencents (1.70) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 11 Shared Belief (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 World Famous Sam T (5.10) - "A" Selection
We had to wait out a Stewards' Inquiry in the Pacific Classic, but otherwise there was very little in the way of drama today, as the only runner above who didn't win by daylight was World Famous Sam T in the finale; but another of our "A" Selections, # 1 Industry Leader (3.20* ) took the Place right behind him. Shared Belief demonstrated why he is so highly thought of with his victory today, while Goldencents set a new track record of 1:20.99 while winning by as many as he pleased.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Industry Leader (3.20*) $128.25
# 4 Wholly Hughes (16.10) $317.80
# 5 Navarre (7.00) $204.80
# 6 Charisma Code (6.00) $190.15
Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 11 / 12 paid $168.45 for a fifty cent wager, giving us a return of a little less than 3-2 on our $67.50 investment. It may not be much, but like my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/14 GG R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, made it back-to-back Wins for Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo Sunday, getting up just in time to defeat Aliza's Dream (Final Odds 22.80) by a nose in Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields. According to the chart caller, City Chapel (7.20), running with a $20k price tag on his head, "had no speed, trailed to the turn, circled four then five wide to the stretch, rallied when set down for the drive and closed stoutly to get a desperate nod."
This marks City Chapel's seventh career Win, his sixth since being claimed by Trujillo for $4k almost exactly two years ago out of this race, where City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80. Today's victory was worth $10,800 in purse money, bringing City Chapel's total earning since running for Trujillo to $93,405.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This marks City Chapel's seventh career Win, his sixth since being claimed by Trujillo for $4k almost exactly two years ago out of this race, where City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80. Today's victory was worth $10,800 in purse money, bringing City Chapel's total earning since running for Trujillo to $93,405.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Moving our focus from East Coast back to West, as today is Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar. Unlike yesterday at Saratoga, there won't be an all Graded Stakes Pick Four today (though there easily could have been, by just moving the Del Mar Handicap from yesterday to today, and then changing the order of today's card; just sayin') but we still get a pretty good sequence for the Pick Four.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Burning Arch (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Burns Turn (ML 7-2)
# 9 Al Freej (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Burning Arch broke her maiden her last time out, but this isn't her first time against winners, as she competed in the Grade 3 Senorita back in June. Burning Arch is the only runner in this field with a Win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course (Zanbo was another, but she did not draw in off the Also Eligibles list), and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does a fine job of placing his runners who graduated last time out, winning over a quarter of the time with such.
Burns Turn moves up from the training ranks, where she has done well enough finding the Winners' Circle. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Burns Turn last time out when she won here on the Polytrack, gets the mount again today.
Al Freej did not fare well in her North American debut her last time out; perhaps she needed the race. Trainer Mike Pender wins with approximately 24% of his runners who are going second time off a layoff. I expect a much improved effort.
# 10 Baruta (ML 5-2) was the Post Time favorite in each of her five previous races, and she took the Place in all five. Maybe today is the day that she finally decides not to hang at the wire; if so, then this ticket will turn to trash, as I have no intention of using Baruta in my play today.
RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Fed Biz (ML 2-1)
# 5 Goldencents (ML 5-2)
# 7 Big Macher (ML 3-2)
C’s
None
I don't expect any surprises here, as I see this contest as being very formful. Last year's edition of this event saw Fed Biz getting up late to pass Goldencents approaching the wire; as both these runners are coming into today's race in shape, I see no reason why they couldn't form the Quinella yet again. Big Macher misses by just a half length of coming into this contest with three straight Graded Stakes wins (four straight wins overall); obviously he belongs, and is just as likely a winner today as the other two top contenders.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Majestic Harbor (ML 9-2)
# 9 Clubhouse Ride (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shared Belief (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Majestic Harbor easily took the Grade 1 Used To Be Hollywood Gold Cup his last time out, winning by over a half dozen lengths. The question is will that dirt form transfer to the synthetic today.
Clubhouse Ride took the Place behind Majestic Harbor in the Hey Stop Calling It Hollywood Gold Cup last time out. Clubhouse Ride lost ground in the stretch that day; and I like what Trainer Craig Lewis has done since that event. In an attempt to build Clubhouse Ride's stamina, Lewis has given his runner three seven furlong workouts along with one eight furlong workout. Will the extended works do the trick? We'll know for sure about two minutes after Post Time.
Shared Belief is a perfect five-for-five for his career, with four of those victories coming on a synthetic surface. Shared Belief and Clubhouse Ride are both sired by Candy Ride (Arg) who won this event exactly eleven years ago today, August 24, 2003.
# 5 Game On Dude (ML 3-1) is, sad to say, no longer the horse he once was. The Dude has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six starts. Game On Dude simply can no longer win without getting loose on the lead early; and I just don't see that happening today.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Industry Leader (ML 9-2)
# 4 Wholly Hughes (ML 8-1)
# 5 Navarre (ML 6-1)
# 6 Charisma Code (ML 8-1)
# 12 World Famous Sam T (ML 5-1)
C's
None
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Burning Arch (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Burns Turn (ML 7-2)
# 9 Al Freej (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Burning Arch broke her maiden her last time out, but this isn't her first time against winners, as she competed in the Grade 3 Senorita back in June. Burning Arch is the only runner in this field with a Win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course (Zanbo was another, but she did not draw in off the Also Eligibles list), and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does a fine job of placing his runners who graduated last time out, winning over a quarter of the time with such.
Burns Turn moves up from the training ranks, where she has done well enough finding the Winners' Circle. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Burns Turn last time out when she won here on the Polytrack, gets the mount again today.
Al Freej did not fare well in her North American debut her last time out; perhaps she needed the race. Trainer Mike Pender wins with approximately 24% of his runners who are going second time off a layoff. I expect a much improved effort.
# 10 Baruta (ML 5-2) was the Post Time favorite in each of her five previous races, and she took the Place in all five. Maybe today is the day that she finally decides not to hang at the wire; if so, then this ticket will turn to trash, as I have no intention of using Baruta in my play today.
RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Fed Biz (ML 2-1)
# 5 Goldencents (ML 5-2)
# 7 Big Macher (ML 3-2)
C’s
None
I don't expect any surprises here, as I see this contest as being very formful. Last year's edition of this event saw Fed Biz getting up late to pass Goldencents approaching the wire; as both these runners are coming into today's race in shape, I see no reason why they couldn't form the Quinella yet again. Big Macher misses by just a half length of coming into this contest with three straight Graded Stakes wins (four straight wins overall); obviously he belongs, and is just as likely a winner today as the other two top contenders.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Majestic Harbor (ML 9-2)
# 9 Clubhouse Ride (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shared Belief (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Majestic Harbor easily took the Grade 1 Used To Be Hollywood Gold Cup his last time out, winning by over a half dozen lengths. The question is will that dirt form transfer to the synthetic today.
Clubhouse Ride took the Place behind Majestic Harbor in the Hey Stop Calling It Hollywood Gold Cup last time out. Clubhouse Ride lost ground in the stretch that day; and I like what Trainer Craig Lewis has done since that event. In an attempt to build Clubhouse Ride's stamina, Lewis has given his runner three seven furlong workouts along with one eight furlong workout. Will the extended works do the trick? We'll know for sure about two minutes after Post Time.
Shared Belief is a perfect five-for-five for his career, with four of those victories coming on a synthetic surface. Shared Belief and Clubhouse Ride are both sired by Candy Ride (Arg) who won this event exactly eleven years ago today, August 24, 2003.
# 5 Game On Dude (ML 3-1) is, sad to say, no longer the horse he once was. The Dude has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six starts. Game On Dude simply can no longer win without getting loose on the lead early; and I just don't see that happening today.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Industry Leader (ML 9-2)
# 4 Wholly Hughes (ML 8-1)
# 5 Navarre (ML 6-1)
# 6 Charisma Code (ML 8-1)
# 12 World Famous Sam T (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Industry Leader was up near the pace in each of his last two starts against more expensive; perhaps he can be speed on the rail today. Wholly Hughes took the Place at this class level over this track last time out. Navarre goes first off the claim for Trainer Craig Dollase, who wins approximately 23% of the time with such.
Charisma Code is a perfect one-for-one in his career at the six and a half furlong distance. Charisma Code will be getting some class relief today. World Famous Sam T set the pace at this class level last time out before running out of gas; perhaps today, with blinkers off, he holds something in reserve until he gets to the wire.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. This does not represent a change in strategy, but rather reflects my opinion that the contenders in each leg were evenly matched (actually, there was one leg where I could have split between "A's" and "C's"; but splitting on just one leg means you're still covering all horses on all tickets). So with that, we get just one ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 2,5,7 with 7,9,11 with 1,4,5,6,12 $67.50
Total: $67.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 23, 2014
8/23/14 Saratoga All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results
"We win races, we lose races. You have to be able to handle disappointment as well as success." - Linda Rice
Race 9 - The Ballston Spa - # 3 Abaco (Final Odds 4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The King's Bishop - # 7 The Big Beast (2.85) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Ballerina - # 1 Artemis Agrotera (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The Travers - # 4 V. E. Day ( 19.50) - "C" Selection
Considering that I really liked our chances today, there's not much to say after failing to bring a single "A" contender home. Still, in all fairness, the betting public didn't fare much better; as not only wasn't there a single Post Time Favorite among the four winners, but two of the four Post Time Favorites actually finished dead last. Anyway, had # 7 Wicked Strong (2.65) held off his stable mate at the wire we would have had an "A" Selection winner; but then all we would have gotten from it was two tickets with three correct choices apiece; all of which would have had the same net result on our bottom line.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,153.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Ballston Spa - # 3 Abaco (Final Odds 4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The King's Bishop - # 7 The Big Beast (2.85) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Ballerina - # 1 Artemis Agrotera (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The Travers - # 4 V. E. Day ( 19.50) - "C" Selection
Considering that I really liked our chances today, there's not much to say after failing to bring a single "A" contender home. Still, in all fairness, the betting public didn't fare much better; as not only wasn't there a single Post Time Favorite among the four winners, but two of the four Post Time Favorites actually finished dead last. Anyway, had # 7 Wicked Strong (2.65) held off his stable mate at the wire we would have had an "A" Selection winner; but then all we would have gotten from it was two tickets with three correct choices apiece; all of which would have had the same net result on our bottom line.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,153.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/23/14 Saratoga All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Travers Day at the Spa, the annual highlight of the Saratoga meet; and NYRA has gifted us with a card that includes an all Graded Stakes Pick Four, Races 9-12 (inclusive).
RACE 9 - (F) The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Mellon Turf Course
A’s
# 7 Filimbi (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Abaco (ML 4-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dayatthespa (ML 5-2) has been scratched. Also note that this race has been moved from the inner to the outer turf.
Filimbi has done nothing wrong since arriving in North America from France. A repeat of her last out effort in the De La Rose Stakes should get the job done here.
Abaco closed well in both the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley; and while the projected pace in this one doesn't flatter her, she should appreciate the class relief. I also like her most recent works here. Strathnaver (GB) should improve over her most recent outing in the Diana and run closer to her effort in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes, where she lost the photo to Coffee Clique.
RACE 10 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Coup de Grace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Noble Cornerstone (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Big Beast (ML 5-2)
Coup de Grace looked very good in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this track last time out, and has been working well since. The Big Beast took a big step forward last time out in his first try against winners. Have to respect his chances due to his speed figures and his connections; but I don't think The Big Beast can get the early lead today, and that certainly compromises his chances.
Noble Cornerstone is making a big leap up the class ladder, entering this field off efforts in state-bred allowance company; but it's not as if he's come out of nowhere, as Noble Cornerstone did show this potential as a two year old. Noble Cornerstone's speed figures mark him as a contender here, and while this is a Grade 1 stakes, it's a Grade 1 that lacks a prior Grade 1 winner.
RACE 11 - (F) The Ballerina (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Miss Aurelia (ML 3-1)
# 5 Willet (ML 6-1)
# 6 La Verdad (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (ML 5-1)
# 2 Better Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Kipling's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 8 Hot Stones (ML 6-1)
# 9 Geeky Gorgeous (ML 20-1)
My Miss Aurelia is certainly the class of this field. The question is has she come back from her injuries that limited her to just one race in all of 2013 and just two races over the past year and a half? If you go back to her 2012 campaign, you'll see that she used an effort in a restricted stakes similar to her most recent performance as a springboard to a Grade 1 Win and the Place in the Breeders' Cup Distaff / Ladies Classic. Certainly a return to that form gets the job done here today.
Willet enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is can Willet carry her form from state bred contests into Graded Stakes company. Willet certainly fits here on speed figures and she definitely likes this track, having finished in the Exacta in all five of her races here at Saratoga.
La Verdad couldn't make the lead in her last contest, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; that's troubling. Some have blamed the mud, which sounds reasonable until you consider that La Verdad had won all of her previous five efforts on an off track. La Verdad certainly worked well on the 17th; but that was her only work since the Honorable Miss. If La Verdad rebounds to her prior form she wins here; but there are enough question marks here to suggest that La Verdad may not be in her best shape.
The C's are everyone else. As I don't believe that this field contains any standouts, this one looks to be a wide open affair.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bayern (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tonalist (ML 3-1)
# 7 Wicked Strong (ML 7-2)
# 10 Mr Speaker (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 1 Commanding Curve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Charge Now (ML 15-1)
# 4 V. E. Day (ML 15-1)
# 5 Viva Majorca (ML 20-1)
# 8 Kid Cruz (ML 12-1)
# 9 Ulanbator (ML 30-1)
Bayern is the early speed here, and a repeat of either of his two prior efforts will see him run the rest of this field off their feet. Can Bayern make ten furlongs? I don't see why not. His sire was Offlee Wild, who made ten furlongs while winning the 2005 Suburban Handicap against a field that included Funny Cide. Bayern's broodmare sire is Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, along with the 1995 running of this event. So I have no concerns about Bayern making ten furlongs; my concern is with Bayern maintaining the early lead. Because that's the real problem with horses like Bayern: they can only run on the lead; they can't rate. Once they're passed, they're done. So if you think Bayern can make a clear early lead here, you can probably single him in this leg and be done. But if you think a blinkered Wicked Strong can pressure Bayern earlier and keep him from getting comfortable on the front end, then you'll see that this event can potentially go in several different directions.
Wicked Strong donned blinkers for the first time last time out, raced up on the pace, and won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy by daylight. Since Wicked Strong had been a prior Grade 1 winner, it's not really accurate to say that he took a step forward with the new equipment; but it is fair to say that Wicked Strong added a new dimension to his game, one that will suit him well here, as he needs to stay close enough to Bayern to keep that one from leading the field from gate to wire.
Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan in the slop, and then got up just in time to hit the wire a head in front of Commission in the Belmont Stakes, finishing less than two lengths ahead of the three footed California Chrome. Last time out Tonalist had the length of the stretch to get by Wicked Strong but could not. I expect Tonalist to improve off that last effort; even more so if the main track fails to dry by the time this contest is run.
Mr Speaker is the only runner in this field with a victory in a race at exactly ten furlongs, albeit on grass. Mr Speaker is also one of only four Grade 1 winners in this field. In addition to being a Grade 1 winner, Mr Speaker is a multiple Graded Stakes winner. He has a dirt pedigree and has been working well over the main track. Mr Speaker may not be Animal Kingdom, and I certainly don’t think that he’s a more likely winner than either Bayern or Wicked Strong; but I do think that Mr Speaker is a legitimate contender, and his stock goes up if the early pace completely falls apart.
The C's are everyone else. If Wicked Strong and Tonalist have to go after Bayern early there's a significant chance that they could all cook each other on the front end. If that happens, this could be anyone's race, as there are several quality closers here.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to shake things up a bit today. As I think the first two legs of this contest will be more formful than the latter two, I'm going to punch tickets that reflect that opinion. But I'm also going to be holding a ticket that covers the possibility that the Travers runs exactly as it looks on paper, and thus spread a little wider in the middle events. It means going over our usual budget, but I really like our chances of connecting here. So with that we get:
A Entries in first half; Everyone in second half
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL $40.00
A and C Entries in first half; A Entries in second half
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 4,7,8 with 4,5,6 with 2,6,7,10 $54.00
Formful Ballston Spa and Travers Ticket
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,7 $30.00
Total: $124.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:59 EDT / 12:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - (F) The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Mellon Turf Course
A’s
# 7 Filimbi (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Abaco (ML 4-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dayatthespa (ML 5-2) has been scratched. Also note that this race has been moved from the inner to the outer turf.
Filimbi has done nothing wrong since arriving in North America from France. A repeat of her last out effort in the De La Rose Stakes should get the job done here.
Abaco closed well in both the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley; and while the projected pace in this one doesn't flatter her, she should appreciate the class relief. I also like her most recent works here. Strathnaver (GB) should improve over her most recent outing in the Diana and run closer to her effort in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes, where she lost the photo to Coffee Clique.
RACE 10 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Coup de Grace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Noble Cornerstone (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Big Beast (ML 5-2)
Coup de Grace looked very good in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this track last time out, and has been working well since. The Big Beast took a big step forward last time out in his first try against winners. Have to respect his chances due to his speed figures and his connections; but I don't think The Big Beast can get the early lead today, and that certainly compromises his chances.
Noble Cornerstone is making a big leap up the class ladder, entering this field off efforts in state-bred allowance company; but it's not as if he's come out of nowhere, as Noble Cornerstone did show this potential as a two year old. Noble Cornerstone's speed figures mark him as a contender here, and while this is a Grade 1 stakes, it's a Grade 1 that lacks a prior Grade 1 winner.
RACE 11 - (F) The Ballerina (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Miss Aurelia (ML 3-1)
# 5 Willet (ML 6-1)
# 6 La Verdad (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (ML 5-1)
# 2 Better Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Kipling's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 8 Hot Stones (ML 6-1)
# 9 Geeky Gorgeous (ML 20-1)
My Miss Aurelia is certainly the class of this field. The question is has she come back from her injuries that limited her to just one race in all of 2013 and just two races over the past year and a half? If you go back to her 2012 campaign, you'll see that she used an effort in a restricted stakes similar to her most recent performance as a springboard to a Grade 1 Win and the Place in the Breeders' Cup Distaff / Ladies Classic. Certainly a return to that form gets the job done here today.
Willet enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is can Willet carry her form from state bred contests into Graded Stakes company. Willet certainly fits here on speed figures and she definitely likes this track, having finished in the Exacta in all five of her races here at Saratoga.
La Verdad couldn't make the lead in her last contest, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; that's troubling. Some have blamed the mud, which sounds reasonable until you consider that La Verdad had won all of her previous five efforts on an off track. La Verdad certainly worked well on the 17th; but that was her only work since the Honorable Miss. If La Verdad rebounds to her prior form she wins here; but there are enough question marks here to suggest that La Verdad may not be in her best shape.
The C's are everyone else. As I don't believe that this field contains any standouts, this one looks to be a wide open affair.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bayern (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tonalist (ML 3-1)
# 7 Wicked Strong (ML 7-2)
# 10 Mr Speaker (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 1 Commanding Curve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Charge Now (ML 15-1)
# 4 V. E. Day (ML 15-1)
# 5 Viva Majorca (ML 20-1)
# 8 Kid Cruz (ML 12-1)
# 9 Ulanbator (ML 30-1)
Bayern is the early speed here, and a repeat of either of his two prior efforts will see him run the rest of this field off their feet. Can Bayern make ten furlongs? I don't see why not. His sire was Offlee Wild, who made ten furlongs while winning the 2005 Suburban Handicap against a field that included Funny Cide. Bayern's broodmare sire is Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, along with the 1995 running of this event. So I have no concerns about Bayern making ten furlongs; my concern is with Bayern maintaining the early lead. Because that's the real problem with horses like Bayern: they can only run on the lead; they can't rate. Once they're passed, they're done. So if you think Bayern can make a clear early lead here, you can probably single him in this leg and be done. But if you think a blinkered Wicked Strong can pressure Bayern earlier and keep him from getting comfortable on the front end, then you'll see that this event can potentially go in several different directions.
Wicked Strong donned blinkers for the first time last time out, raced up on the pace, and won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy by daylight. Since Wicked Strong had been a prior Grade 1 winner, it's not really accurate to say that he took a step forward with the new equipment; but it is fair to say that Wicked Strong added a new dimension to his game, one that will suit him well here, as he needs to stay close enough to Bayern to keep that one from leading the field from gate to wire.
Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan in the slop, and then got up just in time to hit the wire a head in front of Commission in the Belmont Stakes, finishing less than two lengths ahead of the three footed California Chrome. Last time out Tonalist had the length of the stretch to get by Wicked Strong but could not. I expect Tonalist to improve off that last effort; even more so if the main track fails to dry by the time this contest is run.
Mr Speaker is the only runner in this field with a victory in a race at exactly ten furlongs, albeit on grass. Mr Speaker is also one of only four Grade 1 winners in this field. In addition to being a Grade 1 winner, Mr Speaker is a multiple Graded Stakes winner. He has a dirt pedigree and has been working well over the main track. Mr Speaker may not be Animal Kingdom, and I certainly don’t think that he’s a more likely winner than either Bayern or Wicked Strong; but I do think that Mr Speaker is a legitimate contender, and his stock goes up if the early pace completely falls apart.
The C's are everyone else. If Wicked Strong and Tonalist have to go after Bayern early there's a significant chance that they could all cook each other on the front end. If that happens, this could be anyone's race, as there are several quality closers here.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to shake things up a bit today. As I think the first two legs of this contest will be more formful than the latter two, I'm going to punch tickets that reflect that opinion. But I'm also going to be holding a ticket that covers the possibility that the Travers runs exactly as it looks on paper, and thus spread a little wider in the middle events. It means going over our usual budget, but I really like our chances of connecting here. So with that we get:
A Entries in first half; Everyone in second half
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL $40.00
A and C Entries in first half; A Entries in second half
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 4,7,8 with 4,5,6 with 2,6,7,10 $54.00
Formful Ballston Spa and Travers Ticket
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,7 $30.00
Total: $124.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:59 EDT / 12:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 16, 2014
8/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 3 Yard Line (Final Odds 2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 4 Personal Diary (9.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Adriatic Skye (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 In Excessiveness (16.00) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Pick Four Will Pays for the three horses to which we were alive going into the finale:
# 4 True Visionary - $1217.05
# 8 Zim N the Mailman - $5562.70
# 9 Classified Weapon - $688.95
Can't get overly upset about any multi-race wager in which you're still alive heading into the last leg; especially one that contains only one winning Post Time Favorite. And while my analysis of the Del Mar Oaks was hardly perfect, it did prove to be correct about a great many runners, not to mention yielding a winner that kept us alive in the sequence. But all that was for naught once In Excessiveness got loose on the lead right from the gate in the finale.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,234.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 4 Personal Diary (9.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Adriatic Skye (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 In Excessiveness (16.00) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Pick Four Will Pays for the three horses to which we were alive going into the finale:
# 4 True Visionary - $1217.05
# 8 Zim N the Mailman - $5562.70
# 9 Classified Weapon - $688.95
Can't get overly upset about any multi-race wager in which you're still alive heading into the last leg; especially one that contains only one winning Post Time Favorite. And while my analysis of the Del Mar Oaks was hardly perfect, it did prove to be correct about a great many runners, not to mention yielding a winner that kept us alive in the sequence. But all that was for naught once In Excessiveness got loose on the lead right from the gate in the finale.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,234.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Big doings across the USA this Saturday, as you have the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes in New York; Arlington Million Day in Chicago; and the Del Mar Oaks in SoCal. So plenty of top action for horseplayers to choose from today. As for me, I'll be focusing my attention on the happenings at Del Mar.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetics
A’s
# 3 Yard Line (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Big Tire (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Big Sunshine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Southern Freedom (ML 6-1)
Yard Line sure didn't like the turf last time out; today we'll see how much he likes the synthetic stuff. A repeat of his effort two starts back should get Yard Line the Win today.
Big Tire took the Show at this level over this main track last time out, after dropping down from Graded Stakes company. There's certainly class here, and Big Tire's off the pace running style could prove decisive in a field with more than its fair share of front runners.
Sweet Sunshine returns from a nine month vacation, though he has been working well over this main track. Sweet Sunshine has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed around two turns. This will be Sweet Sunshine's first try against winners.
Southern Freedom has four career races, all of which have been run over this main track; and he's finished in the Trifecta in each of them. Southern Freedom will be competing against winners for the first time; but he's the only one in this field with a win over this track, and the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith must be respected.
RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sea Queen (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Famous Alice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Personal Diary (ML 8-1)
# 3 Istanford (ML 5-1) won Friday's Sandy Blue Handicap here, and therefore has been scratched from today's contest. The scratch of Istanford leaves this field devoid of any horse that has a Win on this turf course. # 9 Maibaby (Ire) (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Sea Queen invades from the East, where she’s been doing just fine, finishing in the Exacta in all but one of her six career starts. Sea Queen can lead the field around the track or she can sit off the pace; with Istanford and Maibaby (Ire) scratched Sea Queen may lead the pack in the early going by default; though Famous Alice may choose to contest the early lead. Sea Queen is the Morning Line Favorite, and I expect her to go to Post at odds well below 2-1.
Famous Alice could benefit from the absence of Istanford, as a softer early pace could allow this daughter of Kitten's Joy to sit close and pounce at just the right moment. Note that the only time that Famous Alice has finished out of the Exacta on the grass was when the turf was less than firm.
Personal Diary would probably have been better served with Istanford in the field, as Personal Diary does her best running late, and a blistering early pace would certainly help her cause. Still, Personal Diary's chances must be respected, as she was able to cross the wire third (placed second due to DQ) in the Grade 3 Regret, just behind Aurelia's Belle, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks.
# 1 Diversy Harbor (ML 9-2) and # 6 My Conquestadory (ML 5-1) are a pair that showed great promise when they began their young careers, but have not developed as hoped. While both have the back class and breeding to contend in this spot, the only way either can win here would be to take a big step forward off their most recent efforts. Perhaps one or both of them will; but I'll be betting against that today.
# 7 Tepin (ML 12-1) is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt making her third career start on turf; and, quite frankly, I think she should keep off the grass. Yes, she did take the Place behind Istanford in the Grade 2 San Clemente on this course last month; but that was back when they had the grass shaved so close that it looked like a billiard table. Just my opinion, of course, but the connections of Tepin would do much better by this horse to move her back to competing on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 6-1)
# 4 Golden Celestial (ML 12-1)
# 6 Adriatic Skye (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bird In Love (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hollywood Producer (ML 20-1)
# 7 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Lakota Road (ML 9-2)
Moscato Girl took the Place against more expensive over this main track two starts back. This is the cheapest tag that Moscato Girl has run for in her career.
Hollywood Producer, Golden Celestial, and Adriatic Style all exit the same last race, which saw Hollywood Producer and Adriatic Skye fight on the lead with the eventual winner (Tim's Go Girl) while Golden Celestial swooped in late to take the Place. Adriatic Skye gets the edge today in my opinion due to the switch back to Trainer Vann Belvoir, who re-claimed her from the last event after having lost her in her prior contest. In addition Adriatic Skye shows a bullet work over this main track on August 12, which means that she's ready to fire again. Should Adriatic Skye not fire, Hollywood Producer could be the one leading the pack around the track; while if things get frantic again, Golden Celestial could be the only horse still running at the finish.
Bird in Love (GB) is the only runner in this field with a Win over this main track, and she enters this contest with the best last out Beyer (also earned over this main track).
Brandon's Princess took the Show at this class level her last time out. Brandon's Princess has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but in a field without a standout, it's not hard to imagine her winning while the rest of the field backs away from the Finish Line.
Lakota Road runs for a tag for the first time since her debut after posting her lowest career Beyer Speed Figure since her debut. The public work on August 9 doesn't inspire confidence, other than that is it a public work, so she can't be too off form. Anyway, if Lakota Road can run back to any of the Beyers that she was earning earlier this year, she'll win this one by daylight; but it's far more likely that she doesn't.
# 5 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) experienced a noticeable drop in her Beyer Speed Figures in her last contest compared to those from her prior two starts. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Coconut Cream Pie was also sporting front leg wraps for the first time in her career in her last race. Since Coconut Cream Pie shows no public works since that last contest, it's easy to presume that she is not in her top form. In addition, Coconut Cream Pie earned her lowest career Beyer in her only prior race on the Del Mar main track. Therefore, Coconut Cream Pie, despite being the Morning Line Favorite, will not be on any on my tickets today; so if she wins, I lose.
RACE 10 - Md $40k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 True Visionary (ML 4-1)
# 8 Zim N the Mailman (ML 15-1)
# 9 Classified Weapon (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 10 Silent Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 12 Well Insulated (ML 10-1)
True Visionary and Classified Weapon are among several here making the big drop from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. True Visionary adds blinkers for Trainer Mike Puype, who gets approximately 23% winners from such. In addition True Visionary shows a fine work over this track on August 3, so he should handle the surface switch okay. Meanwhile, Classified Weapon posted a bullet work here on August 2, so he should be ready to fire as well.
Zim N the Mailman had been running against state bred company, so this move isn't much of a drop. But Trainer Tim Yakteen wins more than his fair share of Maiden Claiming events, as well as contests on synthetic surfaces. The rider switch to Fernando Hernandez Perez, who has been having a fine meet, adds to the appeal.
Silent Ruler is the Desormeaux Brothers entry. Trainer Keith and Jockey Kent have been doing well this meet, so their entry must be respected, though it is worth noting that Silent Ruler has had his chances against claiming competition.
Well Insulated, another making the big drop, goes for Trainer Eric Kruljac, who wins with approximately 22% of such. Well Insulated had a fine work hear on August 8, and the experience competing on the synthetic upstate at Golden Gate should be a plus.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 3,7,12 with 4,8,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 10,12 $8.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetics
A’s
# 3 Yard Line (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Big Tire (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Big Sunshine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Southern Freedom (ML 6-1)
Yard Line sure didn't like the turf last time out; today we'll see how much he likes the synthetic stuff. A repeat of his effort two starts back should get Yard Line the Win today.
Big Tire took the Show at this level over this main track last time out, after dropping down from Graded Stakes company. There's certainly class here, and Big Tire's off the pace running style could prove decisive in a field with more than its fair share of front runners.
Sweet Sunshine returns from a nine month vacation, though he has been working well over this main track. Sweet Sunshine has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed around two turns. This will be Sweet Sunshine's first try against winners.
Southern Freedom has four career races, all of which have been run over this main track; and he's finished in the Trifecta in each of them. Southern Freedom will be competing against winners for the first time; but he's the only one in this field with a win over this track, and the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith must be respected.
RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sea Queen (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Famous Alice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Personal Diary (ML 8-1)
# 3 Istanford (ML 5-1) won Friday's Sandy Blue Handicap here, and therefore has been scratched from today's contest. The scratch of Istanford leaves this field devoid of any horse that has a Win on this turf course. # 9 Maibaby (Ire) (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Sea Queen invades from the East, where she’s been doing just fine, finishing in the Exacta in all but one of her six career starts. Sea Queen can lead the field around the track or she can sit off the pace; with Istanford and Maibaby (Ire) scratched Sea Queen may lead the pack in the early going by default; though Famous Alice may choose to contest the early lead. Sea Queen is the Morning Line Favorite, and I expect her to go to Post at odds well below 2-1.
Famous Alice could benefit from the absence of Istanford, as a softer early pace could allow this daughter of Kitten's Joy to sit close and pounce at just the right moment. Note that the only time that Famous Alice has finished out of the Exacta on the grass was when the turf was less than firm.
Personal Diary would probably have been better served with Istanford in the field, as Personal Diary does her best running late, and a blistering early pace would certainly help her cause. Still, Personal Diary's chances must be respected, as she was able to cross the wire third (placed second due to DQ) in the Grade 3 Regret, just behind Aurelia's Belle, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks.
# 1 Diversy Harbor (ML 9-2) and # 6 My Conquestadory (ML 5-1) are a pair that showed great promise when they began their young careers, but have not developed as hoped. While both have the back class and breeding to contend in this spot, the only way either can win here would be to take a big step forward off their most recent efforts. Perhaps one or both of them will; but I'll be betting against that today.
# 7 Tepin (ML 12-1) is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt making her third career start on turf; and, quite frankly, I think she should keep off the grass. Yes, she did take the Place behind Istanford in the Grade 2 San Clemente on this course last month; but that was back when they had the grass shaved so close that it looked like a billiard table. Just my opinion, of course, but the connections of Tepin would do much better by this horse to move her back to competing on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 6-1)
# 4 Golden Celestial (ML 12-1)
# 6 Adriatic Skye (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bird In Love (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hollywood Producer (ML 20-1)
# 7 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Lakota Road (ML 9-2)
Moscato Girl took the Place against more expensive over this main track two starts back. This is the cheapest tag that Moscato Girl has run for in her career.
Hollywood Producer, Golden Celestial, and Adriatic Style all exit the same last race, which saw Hollywood Producer and Adriatic Skye fight on the lead with the eventual winner (Tim's Go Girl) while Golden Celestial swooped in late to take the Place. Adriatic Skye gets the edge today in my opinion due to the switch back to Trainer Vann Belvoir, who re-claimed her from the last event after having lost her in her prior contest. In addition Adriatic Skye shows a bullet work over this main track on August 12, which means that she's ready to fire again. Should Adriatic Skye not fire, Hollywood Producer could be the one leading the pack around the track; while if things get frantic again, Golden Celestial could be the only horse still running at the finish.
Bird in Love (GB) is the only runner in this field with a Win over this main track, and she enters this contest with the best last out Beyer (also earned over this main track).
Brandon's Princess took the Show at this class level her last time out. Brandon's Princess has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but in a field without a standout, it's not hard to imagine her winning while the rest of the field backs away from the Finish Line.
Lakota Road runs for a tag for the first time since her debut after posting her lowest career Beyer Speed Figure since her debut. The public work on August 9 doesn't inspire confidence, other than that is it a public work, so she can't be too off form. Anyway, if Lakota Road can run back to any of the Beyers that she was earning earlier this year, she'll win this one by daylight; but it's far more likely that she doesn't.
# 5 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) experienced a noticeable drop in her Beyer Speed Figures in her last contest compared to those from her prior two starts. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Coconut Cream Pie was also sporting front leg wraps for the first time in her career in her last race. Since Coconut Cream Pie shows no public works since that last contest, it's easy to presume that she is not in her top form. In addition, Coconut Cream Pie earned her lowest career Beyer in her only prior race on the Del Mar main track. Therefore, Coconut Cream Pie, despite being the Morning Line Favorite, will not be on any on my tickets today; so if she wins, I lose.
A’s
# 4 True Visionary (ML 4-1)
# 8 Zim N the Mailman (ML 15-1)
# 9 Classified Weapon (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 10 Silent Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 12 Well Insulated (ML 10-1)
True Visionary and Classified Weapon are among several here making the big drop from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. True Visionary adds blinkers for Trainer Mike Puype, who gets approximately 23% winners from such. In addition True Visionary shows a fine work over this track on August 3, so he should handle the surface switch okay. Meanwhile, Classified Weapon posted a bullet work here on August 2, so he should be ready to fire as well.
Zim N the Mailman had been running against state bred company, so this move isn't much of a drop. But Trainer Tim Yakteen wins more than his fair share of Maiden Claiming events, as well as contests on synthetic surfaces. The rider switch to Fernando Hernandez Perez, who has been having a fine meet, adds to the appeal.
Silent Ruler is the Desormeaux Brothers entry. Trainer Keith and Jockey Kent have been doing well this meet, so their entry must be respected, though it is worth noting that Silent Ruler has had his chances against claiming competition.
Well Insulated, another making the big drop, goes for Trainer Eric Kruljac, who wins with approximately 22% of such. Well Insulated had a fine work hear on August 8, and the experience competing on the synthetic upstate at Golden Gate should be a plus.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 3,7,12 with 4,8,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 10,12 $8.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 10, 2014
8/10/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 10 Magic Beam (Final Odds 4.90) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Manahatta (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The John C. Mabee - # 5 Moulin de Mougin (8.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hidden Zensation - (5.90) - No Selection
We had three "A" Selections in the opening leg; all three finished out of the money. We had two "A" Selections in the second leg; both of those finished out of the money. We had two "A" selections in the final leg; both of those finished out of the money. In the featured 8th Race one of our two "A's", # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (1.80*) finished last. Our only "A" Selection to finish in the money was # 3 Wishing Gate (2.40) who took the Place in the John C. Mabee.
Needless to say, it was not one of our better efforts. Still, we did have three of the four winners on our tickets; so it's not as if we were totally asleep at the wheel. In addition, two of our "A" Selections, # 4 Diva Express (3.90) in Race 7, and # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) were bothered enough in their respective races to require the stewarts to review the running, though no change was made in either event. So our failure wasn't quite as spectacular as it could have been. Still, lose one or lose 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line, as all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 1 / 5 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1,533.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 1 Manahatta (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The John C. Mabee - # 5 Moulin de Mougin (8.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hidden Zensation - (5.90) - No Selection
We had three "A" Selections in the opening leg; all three finished out of the money. We had two "A" Selections in the second leg; both of those finished out of the money. We had two "A" selections in the final leg; both of those finished out of the money. In the featured 8th Race one of our two "A's", # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (1.80*) finished last. Our only "A" Selection to finish in the money was # 3 Wishing Gate (2.40) who took the Place in the John C. Mabee.
Needless to say, it was not one of our better efforts. Still, we did have three of the four winners on our tickets; so it's not as if we were totally asleep at the wheel. In addition, two of our "A" Selections, # 4 Diva Express (3.90) in Race 7, and # 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) were bothered enough in their respective races to require the stewarts to review the running, though no change was made in either event. So our failure wasn't quite as spectacular as it could have been. Still, lose one or lose 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line, as all our tickets turned into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 1 / 5 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1,533.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/10/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
“Don't confuse poor decision-making with destiny. Own your mistakes. It’s ok; we all make them. Learn from them so they can empower you!” ― Steve Maraboli
Staying in SoCal, but switching from early to late: taking a run at Sunday's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Too Fast to Pass (Morning Line 8-1)
# 3 Motown Men (ML 3-1)
# 7 Gladding (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Wildcat Moon (ML 6-1)
# 10 Magic Beam (ML 6-1)
Too Fast to Pass has been in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Del Mar main track. Too Fast to Pass is two-for-two in his career at today's distance, two-for-four on synthetic surfaces, and had a bullet work 7/28 over this main track.
Motown Men missed by a neck at this level at today's distance last time out. Motown Men won his only prior race over this main track, and had a bullet workout here 8/4. This will be Motown Men's first race since last November, but Trainer Phillip D'Amato wins over thirty-five percent of the time with runners coming back from a vacation of over six months.
Gladding drops in for the lowest price tag of his career; nothing suspicious, as his connections are simply trying to get him his first win since July 1, 2012. Gladding took the Show in his only prior start over this main track, but the 86 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day would certainly put him in the mix in today's contest.
Wildcat Moon was within a length of the winner in each of his last four starts, all at a higher class level than today's contest. Wildcat Moon took the Place in each of his two career races over this main track, and has finished in the money in nine of his eleven career starts on synthetics. You may choose to leave Wildcat Moon off your multi-race tickets, but you certainly want to be sure to use him in your vertical wagers.
Magic Beam is three-for-eight competing on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money all times but once in those eight races. Magic Beam owns the career best Beyer Speed Figure for this main track in today's field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Diva Express (ML 3-1)
# 5 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Manahatta (ML 5-2)
Diva Express and Maybellene finished second-third (respectively) in their mutual debut over this main track last month. If either repeats their performance that day today, they'll win.
Manahatta debuts for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins about a third of the time with such. Manahatta is by Old Fashioned, whose progeny win approximately fifteen percent of their initial tries. Note also the back-to-back bullet workouts over this main track on 7/31 and 8/6.
RACE 8 - The John C. Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wishing Gate (ML 7-2)
# 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Every Way (ML 6-1)
# 5 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 8 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cozze Up Lady (ML 9-2)
Wishing Gate is two-for-four (with one Place) for her career on the Del Mar turf. Wishing Gate has a pair of Graded Stakes wins on the grass, though it should be noted that Gary Stevens, who will not be riding today, was on her back for both of those wins.
Miss Serendipity (Arg) won the Grade 1 Gamely her last time out at Santa Anita at today's distance. While Miss Serendipity has been ridden by today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, previously, and was also previously ridden by Gary Stevens, it should be noted that the only times that she has finished in the money in North America have been with Jockey Brice Blanc on her back.
Every Way has either won or been within a half length of the winner in each of her last five races. Expect Every Way to be forwardly placed early.
Moulin de Mougin, a daughter of Curlin, is the only multi-time winner at today's distance on the grass in this field.
Stormy Lucy will be ridden for the first time today by Jockey Corey Nakatani. Stormy Lucy has a pair of Graded Stakes wins, but both of those victories came with Jockey Rafael Bejarano riding her.
Cozze Up Lady has won and taken the Show in her two career tries on the Del Mar turf. With the program scratch of # 4 Miss Ellany (Ire) Cozze Up Lady could find herself controlling the pace in the early going.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Juliet's Tizzy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Intoclassymischief (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 11 Broadcaster (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Juliet's Tizzy goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with nearly thirty percent of such. Juliet's Tizzy had a Place and a Show finish four and two starts back, respectively, against more expensive stock.
Intoclassymischief has demonstrated early speed in several of his previous races, including those against non-claiming Maidens. This will be the first start of the year for Intoclasssymischief; if he has matured during his time away from racing, he just may run these off their feet.
Broadcaster (Ire) proved that he didn't like the dirt his last time out. Broadcaster has shown himself to be competitive on the grass, so it's a jump ball as to whether or not he'll take to the Del Mar Polytrack.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1 with 3,6 with 2,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 2,5,8,9 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 11 $6.00
Total: $68.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Staying in SoCal, but switching from early to late: taking a run at Sunday's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Too Fast to Pass (Morning Line 8-1)
# 3 Motown Men (ML 3-1)
# 7 Gladding (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Wildcat Moon (ML 6-1)
# 10 Magic Beam (ML 6-1)
Too Fast to Pass has been in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on the Del Mar main track. Too Fast to Pass is two-for-two in his career at today's distance, two-for-four on synthetic surfaces, and had a bullet work 7/28 over this main track.
Motown Men missed by a neck at this level at today's distance last time out. Motown Men won his only prior race over this main track, and had a bullet workout here 8/4. This will be Motown Men's first race since last November, but Trainer Phillip D'Amato wins over thirty-five percent of the time with runners coming back from a vacation of over six months.
Gladding drops in for the lowest price tag of his career; nothing suspicious, as his connections are simply trying to get him his first win since July 1, 2012. Gladding took the Show in his only prior start over this main track, but the 86 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day would certainly put him in the mix in today's contest.
Wildcat Moon was within a length of the winner in each of his last four starts, all at a higher class level than today's contest. Wildcat Moon took the Place in each of his two career races over this main track, and has finished in the money in nine of his eleven career starts on synthetics. You may choose to leave Wildcat Moon off your multi-race tickets, but you certainly want to be sure to use him in your vertical wagers.
Magic Beam is three-for-eight competing on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money all times but once in those eight races. Magic Beam owns the career best Beyer Speed Figure for this main track in today's field.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Diva Express (ML 3-1)
# 5 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Manahatta (ML 5-2)
Diva Express and Maybellene finished second-third (respectively) in their mutual debut over this main track last month. If either repeats their performance that day today, they'll win.
Manahatta debuts for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins about a third of the time with such. Manahatta is by Old Fashioned, whose progeny win approximately fifteen percent of their initial tries. Note also the back-to-back bullet workouts over this main track on 7/31 and 8/6.
RACE 8 - The John C. Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wishing Gate (ML 7-2)
# 6 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Every Way (ML 6-1)
# 5 Moulin de Mougin (ML 8-1)
# 8 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cozze Up Lady (ML 9-2)
Wishing Gate is two-for-four (with one Place) for her career on the Del Mar turf. Wishing Gate has a pair of Graded Stakes wins on the grass, though it should be noted that Gary Stevens, who will not be riding today, was on her back for both of those wins.
Miss Serendipity (Arg) won the Grade 1 Gamely her last time out at Santa Anita at today's distance. While Miss Serendipity has been ridden by today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, previously, and was also previously ridden by Gary Stevens, it should be noted that the only times that she has finished in the money in North America have been with Jockey Brice Blanc on her back.
Every Way has either won or been within a half length of the winner in each of her last five races. Expect Every Way to be forwardly placed early.
Moulin de Mougin, a daughter of Curlin, is the only multi-time winner at today's distance on the grass in this field.
Cozze Up Lady has won and taken the Show in her two career tries on the Del Mar turf. With the program scratch of # 4 Miss Ellany (Ire) Cozze Up Lady could find herself controlling the pace in the early going.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Juliet's Tizzy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Intoclassymischief (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 11 Broadcaster (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Juliet's Tizzy goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with nearly thirty percent of such. Juliet's Tizzy had a Place and a Show finish four and two starts back, respectively, against more expensive stock.
Intoclassymischief has demonstrated early speed in several of his previous races, including those against non-claiming Maidens. This will be the first start of the year for Intoclasssymischief; if he has matured during his time away from racing, he just may run these off their feet.
Broadcaster (Ire) proved that he didn't like the dirt his last time out. Broadcaster has shown himself to be competitive on the grass, so it's a jump ball as to whether or not he'll take to the Del Mar Polytrack.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 2,7 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 1 with 3,6 with 2,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 2,5,8,9 with 2,7 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 4,5 with 3,6 with 11 $6.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 9, 2014
8/9/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 1 Rosewhitenblue (Final Odds 1.90) - "C" Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Sunny Kat (5.30) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Heyyoucan (23.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Om (22.40) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The La Jolla - # 6 Enterprising (1.50*) - "A" Selection
We had a nice finish, bringing two "A's" home in the final two legs. Om showed that being the only experienced runner with early speed makes for a nice advantage in a Maiden race, while Enterprising proved that "class on the grass" is still a valid precept. We also started well enough, getting home one of the two horses that we used in the opening leg; albeit our "C" Selection.
But Races 2 and 3; man, each of those was a big swing and a miss.
As strange as this may sound, I think omitting Heyyoucan from the ticket was a bigger mistake than not using Sunny Kat. Heyyoucan was one of only two runners in Race 3 that had previously won on the Del Mar main track. In addition, Heyyoucan had a clear pace advantage over the field, being the one legitimate closer in the field (yeah, # 2 Pressure Time (3.00) had also shown the ability to rate, but he was adding blinkers today, while Heyyoucan was shedding the hood). So Heyyoucan is one that really belonged in our play.
On the other hand, Sunny Kat is one that I can forgive myself for not using. Yes, Sunny Kat is by Kitten's Joy, so naturally the turf breeding is there. But Sunny Kat had four races on the grass prior to today (two of which were at today's distance) and managed to finish out of the money in all four. I'm not quite sure how I could have deduced that today would be the day that the turf gene would finally kick in. Of course, it could be said that I simply totally mis-handicapped this event. After all, the four runners that I used in this field of seven were the four runners that finished out of the money.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 1 / 3 / 6 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $53,812.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 3 Sunny Kat (5.30) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Heyyoucan (23.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Om (22.40) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The La Jolla - # 6 Enterprising (1.50*) - "A" Selection
We had a nice finish, bringing two "A's" home in the final two legs. Om showed that being the only experienced runner with early speed makes for a nice advantage in a Maiden race, while Enterprising proved that "class on the grass" is still a valid precept. We also started well enough, getting home one of the two horses that we used in the opening leg; albeit our "C" Selection.
But Races 2 and 3; man, each of those was a big swing and a miss.
As strange as this may sound, I think omitting Heyyoucan from the ticket was a bigger mistake than not using Sunny Kat. Heyyoucan was one of only two runners in Race 3 that had previously won on the Del Mar main track. In addition, Heyyoucan had a clear pace advantage over the field, being the one legitimate closer in the field (yeah, # 2 Pressure Time (3.00) had also shown the ability to rate, but he was adding blinkers today, while Heyyoucan was shedding the hood). So Heyyoucan is one that really belonged in our play.
On the other hand, Sunny Kat is one that I can forgive myself for not using. Yes, Sunny Kat is by Kitten's Joy, so naturally the turf breeding is there. But Sunny Kat had four races on the grass prior to today (two of which were at today's distance) and managed to finish out of the money in all four. I'm not quite sure how I could have deduced that today would be the day that the turf gene would finally kick in. Of course, it could be said that I simply totally mis-handicapped this event. After all, the four runners that I used in this field of seven were the four runners that finished out of the money.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 1 / 3 / 6 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $53,812.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/9/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Preview
They'll be running on some California grass Saturday at Del Mar, with the seventy-fourth running of the Grade 3 La Jolla scheduled for Race 5 being the featured race. In honor of that event, today we'll be taking a look at the early half of the card, and take a shot at the Pick Five.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 No Tricks for Jack (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Rosewhitenblue (ML 7-2)
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
No Tricks for Jack won at this level last time out at the Oak Tree meet at Pleasanton. Throw out the race two back, which was a sprint and at a higher class level, and No Tricks for Jack has run three routes at this class level, and has finished in the money in all three. Rosewhitenblue has finished in the money ten out of fourteen tries on synthetic surfaces, and has shown the ability to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 2 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Spring Action (ML 3-1)
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Anxious Times (ML 5-1)
# 5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Spring Action took the Show at this level in his last start, also a turf route. Snuggley Bear is taking his eleventh shot at breaking his maiden; not a good sign. But only three of his previous ten starts were on the grass, and he finished in the money in all three. To put an even finer point on it, only one of Snuggley Bear's prior starts was a turf route, and he took the Place in that contest.
Action Times is by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare, so he shouldn't have any problems with his first career route (indeed, his Tomlinson Rating for the distance is the best in this field). Action Times has also been working well over the main track at Del Mar; perhaps he's better suited to the Polytrack?
Badasmywifeletsmeb has no business being on this ticket, expect for the fact that he's sired by Unusual Heat, and for whatever reason the progeny of Unusual Heat tend to do ridiculously well on this turf course.
RACE 3 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pressure Time (ML 3-1)
# 3 World Famous Sam T (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pressure Time gets some class relief here, and the workout on 8/2 suggests that the synthetic surface should not be a problem. World Famous Sam T was a winner in his only prior try on a synthetic surface.
Tribal Dude showed that sometimes the thirteenth time's the charm, finally getting a win in what was (not so coincidentally) a race in which he ran for the lowest price tage of his career. Tribal Dude's form looks much better when you consider that he is is one-for-two in his career on synthetic surfaces, and undefeated in his solo effort on this main track. I like that Tribal Dude got the win without earning a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure, and I think he's well suited to today's class level.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 No Tricks for Jack (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Rosewhitenblue (ML 7-2)
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
No Tricks for Jack won at this level last time out at the Oak Tree meet at Pleasanton. Throw out the race two back, which was a sprint and at a higher class level, and No Tricks for Jack has run three routes at this class level, and has finished in the money in all three. Rosewhitenblue has finished in the money ten out of fourteen tries on synthetic surfaces, and has shown the ability to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 2 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Spring Action (ML 3-1)
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Anxious Times (ML 5-1)
# 5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Spring Action took the Show at this level in his last start, also a turf route. Snuggley Bear is taking his eleventh shot at breaking his maiden; not a good sign. But only three of his previous ten starts were on the grass, and he finished in the money in all three. To put an even finer point on it, only one of Snuggley Bear's prior starts was a turf route, and he took the Place in that contest.
Action Times is by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare, so he shouldn't have any problems with his first career route (indeed, his Tomlinson Rating for the distance is the best in this field). Action Times has also been working well over the main track at Del Mar; perhaps he's better suited to the Polytrack?
Badasmywifeletsmeb has no business being on this ticket, expect for the fact that he's sired by Unusual Heat, and for whatever reason the progeny of Unusual Heat tend to do ridiculously well on this turf course.
RACE 3 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pressure Time (ML 3-1)
# 3 World Famous Sam T (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pressure Time gets some class relief here, and the workout on 8/2 suggests that the synthetic surface should not be a problem. World Famous Sam T was a winner in his only prior try on a synthetic surface.
Tribal Dude showed that sometimes the thirteenth time's the charm, finally getting a win in what was (not so coincidentally) a race in which he ran for the lowest price tage of his career. Tribal Dude's form looks much better when you consider that he is is one-for-two in his career on synthetic surfaces, and undefeated in his solo effort on this main track. I like that Tribal Dude got the win without earning a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure, and I think he's well suited to today's class level.
RACE 4 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Calculator (ML 9-2)
# 2 Iron Fist (ML 7-2)
# 3 Om (ML 15-1)
# 6 American Pharoah (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 One Lucky Dane (ML 8-1)
# 8 Daddy D T (ML 5-1)
Calculator missed by a length of graduating in his debut over this main track, and owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field.
Iron Fist has that very impressive seven figure price tag that he was purchased for at auction last year, not to mention the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. But while he made up a lot of ground in his debut, Iron Fist runs for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, whose horses tend to do better their first time out as opposed to when they have to try again.
Om is the only experienced runner in this field to have shown early speed in his debut. In addition, Om has been working well over this main track since that first time effort. There are others here that I prefer more, but I don't want to sell this one too short.
One Lucky Dane and American Pharoah are a pair of first time starters going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with such about one out of every four tries. One Lucky Dane is by Lookin At Lucky, while American Pharoah is by Pioneerof the Nile; the progeny of both those sires tend to win more than their fair share in their debuts.
Daddy D T is by Scat Daddy, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts. Daddy D T is trained by John Sadler, who wins approximately 24% of the time with first time starters. Daddy D T shows a steady work tab, and should be ready to fire.
RACE 5 - The La Jolla (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enterprising (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 7-2)
# 2 Schoolofhardrocks (ML 5-2)
Enterprising is four for five in his career when racing on some California grass, and is the only runner in today's field with a win on this turf course. The only question I see for Enterprising today is how much did that charge from the clouds in the Oceanside take out of him.
Argyle Cut seems to have developed seconditis, settling for the Place in four of his last five starts; the only win in that sequence coming in an Optional Claimer at Golden Gate with Russel Baze on his back when he went off at less than even money.
Schoolofhardrocks defeated older two starts back; but that win was sandwiched between two starts where he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,5 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 4,8 with 6 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2 $24.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 3, 2014
8/3/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Inexcess Time (Final Odds 7.70) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Blue Tone (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Best Pal - # 7 Skyway (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Wrightwood (6.50) - "A" Selection
Thanks to the scratches in Race 6, we made the right call in putting Inexcess Time on our tickets; though, of course, there's no telling what the results would have been sans scratches. For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 Hall of Fame (4.90) - $342.40
# 5 Noble Bird (2.80*) - $371.30
So we not only beat the Morning Line Favorite in the finale, # 8 Alamo (2.80) but we also got the head bob to the biggest payout, as the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 7 / 1 returns $509.05 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Blue Tone (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Best Pal - # 7 Skyway (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Wrightwood (6.50) - "A" Selection
Thanks to the scratches in Race 6, we made the right call in putting Inexcess Time on our tickets; though, of course, there's no telling what the results would have been sans scratches. For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the other two horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 Hall of Fame (4.90) - $342.40
# 5 Noble Bird (2.80*) - $371.30
So we not only beat the Morning Line Favorite in the finale, # 8 Alamo (2.80) but we also got the head bob to the biggest payout, as the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 7 / 1 returns $509.05 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/3/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Switching coasts from East to West, as Del Mar is featuring the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes today. As sometimes happens we're pressed for time; so this will be relatively brief.
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Dream Police (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1)
# 10 Cherokee Band (ML 10-1)
# 11 Remo (ML 3-1)
Dream Police took the Place in his debut as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, and will get blinkers on and a rider switch for today's contest; moves that in general tend to be neutral, but often help a second time starter focus better on his task. Life On Riveria is by a sire (Hold Me Back) and from a trainer (Peter Miller) who both do quite well with debut runners. EDIT: # 8 Life On Riveria (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
# 10 Cherokee Band goes out for Trainer Cody Autrey, who does quite well with both juveniles and first time starters. I also like that this one sold this past March at auction for $115k from off a $5k sire fee.
I downgraded # 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1) and # 11 Remo (ML 3-1) because they are second time starters from trainers (Walther Solis and Doug O'Neill) whose juvenile runners tend to either win in their debuts, or not until after several more starts. I did not eliminate them completely, because after all the scratches, I don't believe this field is especially strong.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blue Tone (ML 4-1)
# 8 Patrioticandproud (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 3 Friendswith K Mill (ML 5-1)
# 9 Stormberg (ML 15-1)
Friendswith K Mill misses by a half length of being perfect in his last three starts that weren't Graded Stakes. A concern is that this is his first time facing older. Blue Tone hasn't competed since October; but he has worked well over this track (note the seven furlong move on July 20) and is the only runner in this contest with a win over this main track.
Patrioticandproud has three wins in his career on the synthetics, and has finished in the money in ten of his fourteen career starts on the plastic. Patrioticandproud was also a winner in two of his last three races that weren't Graded Stakes. Stromberg runs first time for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Story to Tell (ML 5-2)
# 7 Skyway (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 Two Six Wins (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Bigluck E (ML 5-1) and # 5 Rowdy Dylan (ML 7-2) have been scratched.
Story to Tell misses by less than a length of being a perfect three-for-three for his career. Story to Tell is also the only non-restricted stakes winner in the field. Skyway is the only runner in this contest with a win on a synthetic surface. Skyway also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. Two Six Wins has been working well over the Del Mar surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Wrightwood (ML 5-1)
# 4 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1)
# 5 Noble Bird (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Opsec (ML 6-1)
# 3 Surfer Moon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Clickjab (ML 10-1)
# 7 J Serino (ML 6-1)
# 8 Alamo (ML 5-2)
# 9 Native Ride (ML 15-1)
Wrightwood has finished in the money both times that he's tried today's distance at this class level. Hall of Fame both took the Place at this level their last times out, and come back after not competing in July. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as I think this one is completely wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,9 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 3 with 1,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,9 $12.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Dream Police (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1)
# 10 Cherokee Band (ML 10-1)
# 11 Remo (ML 3-1)
Dream Police took the Place in his debut as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, and will get blinkers on and a rider switch for today's contest; moves that in general tend to be neutral, but often help a second time starter focus better on his task. Life On Riveria is by a sire (Hold Me Back) and from a trainer (Peter Miller) who both do quite well with debut runners. EDIT: # 8 Life On Riveria (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
# 10 Cherokee Band goes out for Trainer Cody Autrey, who does quite well with both juveniles and first time starters. I also like that this one sold this past March at auction for $115k from off a $5k sire fee.
I downgraded # 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1) and # 11 Remo (ML 3-1) because they are second time starters from trainers (Walther Solis and Doug O'Neill) whose juvenile runners tend to either win in their debuts, or not until after several more starts. I did not eliminate them completely, because after all the scratches, I don't believe this field is especially strong.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blue Tone (ML 4-1)
# 8 Patrioticandproud (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 3 Friendswith K Mill (ML 5-1)
# 9 Stormberg (ML 15-1)
Friendswith K Mill misses by a half length of being perfect in his last three starts that weren't Graded Stakes. A concern is that this is his first time facing older. Blue Tone hasn't competed since October; but he has worked well over this track (note the seven furlong move on July 20) and is the only runner in this contest with a win over this main track.
Patrioticandproud has three wins in his career on the synthetics, and has finished in the money in ten of his fourteen career starts on the plastic. Patrioticandproud was also a winner in two of his last three races that weren't Graded Stakes. Stromberg runs first time for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Story to Tell (ML 5-2)
# 7 Skyway (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 Two Six Wins (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Bigluck E (ML 5-1) and # 5 Rowdy Dylan (ML 7-2) have been scratched.
Story to Tell misses by less than a length of being a perfect three-for-three for his career. Story to Tell is also the only non-restricted stakes winner in the field. Skyway is the only runner in this contest with a win on a synthetic surface. Skyway also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. Two Six Wins has been working well over the Del Mar surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Wrightwood (ML 5-1)
# 4 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1)
# 5 Noble Bird (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Opsec (ML 6-1)
# 3 Surfer Moon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Clickjab (ML 10-1)
# 7 J Serino (ML 6-1)
# 8 Alamo (ML 5-2)
# 9 Native Ride (ML 15-1)
Wrightwood has finished in the money both times that he's tried today's distance at this class level. Hall of Fame both took the Place at this level their last times out, and come back after not competing in July. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as I think this one is completely wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,9 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 3 with 1,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,9 $12.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 2, 2014
8/2/14 Saratoga Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt - # 1 Palace (Final Odds 2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Test - # 7 Sweet Reason (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Whitney - # 3 Moreno (10.00) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Lure - # 4 Big Blue Kitten (1.70*) - "A" Selection
We were right to have our concerns about the Post Time Favorite in The A G Vanderbilt, # 5 Happy My Way (1.60*), as he was up by two in the stretch but could not hold on against the pace-pressing Palace. On the other hand, our concerns about Big Blue Kitten in the finale proved to be unfounded, as he showed he was indeed ready off the bench, winning by daylight. Likewise no surprises in The Test, as Sweet Reason picks up her third Grade 1 win.
As for The Whitney, # 5 Palace Malice (0.65*) never fired and # 1 Will Take Charge (4.10) couldn't get there in time, as Moreno simply led the field all the way around the track. Post-race DRF's David Grening tweeted out a quote from Jockey John Velazquez stating Palace Malice "just went through the motions; never put in an effort." Palace Malice himself had no comment on his performance.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $221.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Test - # 7 Sweet Reason (2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Whitney - # 3 Moreno (10.00) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Lure - # 4 Big Blue Kitten (1.70*) - "A" Selection
We were right to have our concerns about the Post Time Favorite in The A G Vanderbilt, # 5 Happy My Way (1.60*), as he was up by two in the stretch but could not hold on against the pace-pressing Palace. On the other hand, our concerns about Big Blue Kitten in the finale proved to be unfounded, as he showed he was indeed ready off the bench, winning by daylight. Likewise no surprises in The Test, as Sweet Reason picks up her third Grade 1 win.
As for The Whitney, # 5 Palace Malice (0.65*) never fired and # 1 Will Take Charge (4.10) couldn't get there in time, as Moreno simply led the field all the way around the track. Post-race DRF's David Grening tweeted out a quote from Jockey John Velazquez stating Palace Malice "just went through the motions; never put in an effort." Palace Malice himself had no comment on his performance.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $221.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/2/14 Saratoga Late Pick Four - Preview
I was afraid that this was going to be another washout weekend in the east, especially with Monmouth Park announcing they were off the turf almost right at sunup. But Weather Underground is offering a reasonably dry forecast for Saratoga this afternoon, with only a slight chance of thunderstorm; so with it being Whitney Day up at the Spa, let's pray for sunshine and take a run at the all-stakes Late Pick Four.
RACE 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Bahamian Squall (ML 8-1)
# 5 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Bakken (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Palace, winner of the Grade 2 True North, has finished in the money all but once in the dozen times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Palace has also been in the money all three times that he's run at Saratoga. Bahamian Squall took the Place in this event last year, earning his best career Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
Happy My Way has earned triple-digit Beyers in each of his last five races, and (with the scratch of Bakken) could find himself all alone on the front end today. But this will be the first time that Happy My Way is competing at this level and at Saratoga, and his work over this track on July 27 was far from impressive.
RACE 9 - (F) The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fiftyshadesofgold (ML 8-1)
# 5 Southern Honey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sweet Reason (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Fiftyshadesofgold turns back to her preferred distance; note that she's four-for-five in her career in races at less than a mile. Fiftyshadesofgold also shows a series of bullet works heading into this one.
Southern Honey owns the best career Beyer in a Grade 1 field where none of the entrants has ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer Speed Figure. Note also that Southern Honey earned that figure defeating older in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. The only question is how much did that race take out of her.
Sweet Reason is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, and she's done it twice. Sweet Reason has also won both times that she's competed at Saratoga.
RACE 10 - The Whitney (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Palace Malice (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 4-1)
Palace Malice is the clear class standout here, having matured into an even better runner than he was in his three year old campaign. Will Take Charge has never finished out of the Exacta with Luis Saez on his back; nor has Will Take Charge ever finished out of the Exacta when competing at today's distance.
RACE 11 - [R] The Lure $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 4 Big Blue Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Swift Warrior (ML 10-1)
# 6 Plainview (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bio Pro (ML 12-1)
# 11 Rouge Romance (ML 20-1)
Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field; but he's been on a nine month vacation, and it's fair to presume that his connections have him pointed towards bigger races than this restricted stakes.
Swift Warrior won a pair of Graded Stakes on the grass last year. Plainview is three-for three on the Saratoga grass, and his front-running style tends to play well on this inner turf course. Bio Pro is another that should be forwardly placed, and seems to have responded well to the move from West to East.
Rogue Romance has run just one race since finishing two lengths behind Ron the Greek in the 2012 Stephen Foster Handicap. But Rogue Romance is a Graded Stakes winner on the grass, and has won on the Saratoga grass (albeit on the outer turf course). In addition, Rogue Romance has won after a long hiatus, winning an Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park after having not run since taking the Show in the prior year's Risen Star.
Again, Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field, and should win easy; but if he doesn't fire, this becomes a wide open affair.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to play our tickets a little differently today. We'll have our usual "All A Entries"; but in addition to that we'll have just one other ticket combing all entries. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4 $9.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,11 $45.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:40 EDT / 1:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Bahamian Squall (ML 8-1)
# 5 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Bakken (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Palace, winner of the Grade 2 True North, has finished in the money all but once in the dozen times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Palace has also been in the money all three times that he's run at Saratoga. Bahamian Squall took the Place in this event last year, earning his best career Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
Happy My Way has earned triple-digit Beyers in each of his last five races, and (with the scratch of Bakken) could find himself all alone on the front end today. But this will be the first time that Happy My Way is competing at this level and at Saratoga, and his work over this track on July 27 was far from impressive.
RACE 9 - (F) The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fiftyshadesofgold (ML 8-1)
# 5 Southern Honey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sweet Reason (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Fiftyshadesofgold turns back to her preferred distance; note that she's four-for-five in her career in races at less than a mile. Fiftyshadesofgold also shows a series of bullet works heading into this one.
Southern Honey owns the best career Beyer in a Grade 1 field where none of the entrants has ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer Speed Figure. Note also that Southern Honey earned that figure defeating older in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. The only question is how much did that race take out of her.
Sweet Reason is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, and she's done it twice. Sweet Reason has also won both times that she's competed at Saratoga.
RACE 10 - The Whitney (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Palace Malice (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 4-1)
Palace Malice is the clear class standout here, having matured into an even better runner than he was in his three year old campaign. Will Take Charge has never finished out of the Exacta with Luis Saez on his back; nor has Will Take Charge ever finished out of the Exacta when competing at today's distance.
RACE 11 - [R] The Lure $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 4 Big Blue Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Swift Warrior (ML 10-1)
# 6 Plainview (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bio Pro (ML 12-1)
# 11 Rouge Romance (ML 20-1)
Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field; but he's been on a nine month vacation, and it's fair to presume that his connections have him pointed towards bigger races than this restricted stakes.
Swift Warrior won a pair of Graded Stakes on the grass last year. Plainview is three-for three on the Saratoga grass, and his front-running style tends to play well on this inner turf course. Bio Pro is another that should be forwardly placed, and seems to have responded well to the move from West to East.
Rogue Romance has run just one race since finishing two lengths behind Ron the Greek in the 2012 Stephen Foster Handicap. But Rogue Romance is a Graded Stakes winner on the grass, and has won on the Saratoga grass (albeit on the outer turf course). In addition, Rogue Romance has won after a long hiatus, winning an Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park after having not run since taking the Show in the prior year's Risen Star.
Again, Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field, and should win easy; but if he doesn't fire, this becomes a wide open affair.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to play our tickets a little differently today. We'll have our usual "All A Entries"; but in addition to that we'll have just one other ticket combing all entries. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4 $9.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,11 $45.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:40 EDT / 1:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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