Race 1 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Race 2 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Race 3 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Race 4 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Race 5 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Race 6 - Cancelled - Track Conditions
Ten minutes prior to Post Time for Race 1, The Meadowlands announced that racing had been cancelled for the evening, as the riders were unhappy with the condition of the turf course.
So we break even. Which is okay, as some of us could use the money.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 25, 2014
10/25/14 Meadowlands Jersey Shore Pick 6 - Preview
Technically it's the Monmouth-at-Meadowlands Thoroughbred meet, which helps explain why the Jackpot Pick Six wager is referred to as the Jersey Shore; but what I guess you really want explained is what are we doing here? Well, there are two things in play here. One is that I wanted to try something a little different this weekend; just a little change to break up the normal routine of playing the SoCal tracks on the weekend. The other reason for taking a shot at the New Jersey Jackpot Pick Six is that I wanted a chance to practice some turf handicapping, an area I feel that I could use some work (though I'm sure that there are several regular readers of this blog who feel, "Believe us Jimbo; there isn't just one area of your game that could use some work").
So hopefully we'll have some fun with this evening's card; because, believe me, we ain't doing this for the prize fund. That's because there's no real money to be made with this jackpot bet. Actually, let me re-phrase that: there's no money, real or otherwise, to be made here. And I mean NO money. As mentioned above, it's a ten cent jackpot wager, and the TOTAL pool last Saturday was under two grand. So even if, by the grace of The Almighty, we should hit, we're probably not going to collect all that much. But with that said, if we have some fun and learn a thing or two that may prove useful down the road, then it'll all be worth it. So let's get to it.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $5k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1A Free d'Or (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Sunset Time (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Free d'Or is one-for-two lifetime over this turf course, and took the Show last month against open $10k Claimers at Delaware Park. In addition, Free d'Or won last time out against higher price (though conditioned) Claimers at tonight's distance over this turf course.
Sunset Time is two-for-two lifetime over this turf course, those two races being the two most recent races of her career. Sunset time won by over two lengths last time out at this class level.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Wine Burglar (ML 8-5)
C's
# 8 Corinthian Luck (ML 5-1)
Wine Burglar took the Show against more expensive last time out at Saratoga. This will be Wine Burglar's first start off the claim for Trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who wins with approximately 28% of such.
Corinthian Luck broke her maiden by over three lengths last time out at Delaware Park. Corinthian Luck is trained by Juan Vazquez, who gets back-to-back wins from his runners about a fifth of the time.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) Md $35k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Daddy's Crazy Girl (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 My Buddy Zip (ML 8-1)
# 6 Don's Escapade (ML 7-2)
# 7 Silver Bouquet (ML 10-1)
Daddy's Little Girl is the only runner in this juvenile field with a grass race on her resume. Daddy's Little Girl has been working her way progressively down the class ladder, and takes a pretty steep drop here, not just going for a cheaper price tag, but also moving from open company to state-bred only. Daddy's Little Girl flashed some earlier speed last time out, so it seems clear that the weaker fields have sparked her competitive juices.
My Buddy Zip is a first time starter; the work tab is light but the breeding is there.
Don's Escapade has finished in the money in two of her three career starts, all against higher company; if she can keep her form on the grass, she'll be tough her. Don's Escapade's trainer, Terri Pompay, has a .19 Winning Percentage in Turf Sprints, with a positive ROI.
Silver Bouquet makes her second career start for Trainer Russell Cash, who does quite well with such, as well as with debut turf runners, albeit in a small sample size.
RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Dubai Time (ML 7-2)
# 7 Hyman Roth (ML 5-1)
# 8 George Cross (ML 4-1)
C's
None
The conditions limit the field to runners who have not won a race in 2014, or which have never won three races. So you could write it in shorthand as Clm $16k N1Y or N3L.
Dubai Time has finished in the money in four of his five career races over this turf course. Dubai Time disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts, so he could be a hanger; but the talent must be respected. Perhaps the change in rider to Carol Cedeno will keep him focused through the wire.
Hyman Roth is a career three for nine on the grass, as well as being two-for-four at tonight's distance. Hyman Roth will also be getting some much needed class relief here.
George Cross has finished in the money in each of his last four races, twice disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. George Cross is another that may benefit from a rider change, in this case to Matthew Rispoli.
RACE 5 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Oak Bluffs (ML 6-1)
# 8 Jersey Jet (ML 5-1)
# 9 Papadopalous (ML 9-2)
# 10 Ride Ride Ride (ML 15-1)
# 11 Chaser (ML 4-1)
C's
None
So hopefully we'll have some fun with this evening's card; because, believe me, we ain't doing this for the prize fund. That's because there's no real money to be made with this jackpot bet. Actually, let me re-phrase that: there's no money, real or otherwise, to be made here. And I mean NO money. As mentioned above, it's a ten cent jackpot wager, and the TOTAL pool last Saturday was under two grand. So even if, by the grace of The Almighty, we should hit, we're probably not going to collect all that much. But with that said, if we have some fun and learn a thing or two that may prove useful down the road, then it'll all be worth it. So let's get to it.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $5k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1A Free d'Or (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Sunset Time (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Free d'Or is one-for-two lifetime over this turf course, and took the Show last month against open $10k Claimers at Delaware Park. In addition, Free d'Or won last time out against higher price (though conditioned) Claimers at tonight's distance over this turf course.
Sunset Time is two-for-two lifetime over this turf course, those two races being the two most recent races of her career. Sunset time won by over two lengths last time out at this class level.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Wine Burglar (ML 8-5)
C's
# 8 Corinthian Luck (ML 5-1)
Wine Burglar took the Show against more expensive last time out at Saratoga. This will be Wine Burglar's first start off the claim for Trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who wins with approximately 28% of such.
Corinthian Luck broke her maiden by over three lengths last time out at Delaware Park. Corinthian Luck is trained by Juan Vazquez, who gets back-to-back wins from his runners about a fifth of the time.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) Md $35k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Daddy's Crazy Girl (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 My Buddy Zip (ML 8-1)
# 6 Don's Escapade (ML 7-2)
# 7 Silver Bouquet (ML 10-1)
Daddy's Little Girl is the only runner in this juvenile field with a grass race on her resume. Daddy's Little Girl has been working her way progressively down the class ladder, and takes a pretty steep drop here, not just going for a cheaper price tag, but also moving from open company to state-bred only. Daddy's Little Girl flashed some earlier speed last time out, so it seems clear that the weaker fields have sparked her competitive juices.
My Buddy Zip is a first time starter; the work tab is light but the breeding is there.
Don's Escapade has finished in the money in two of her three career starts, all against higher company; if she can keep her form on the grass, she'll be tough her. Don's Escapade's trainer, Terri Pompay, has a .19 Winning Percentage in Turf Sprints, with a positive ROI.
Silver Bouquet makes her second career start for Trainer Russell Cash, who does quite well with such, as well as with debut turf runners, albeit in a small sample size.
RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Dubai Time (ML 7-2)
# 7 Hyman Roth (ML 5-1)
# 8 George Cross (ML 4-1)
C's
None
The conditions limit the field to runners who have not won a race in 2014, or which have never won three races. So you could write it in shorthand as Clm $16k N1Y or N3L.
Dubai Time has finished in the money in four of his five career races over this turf course. Dubai Time disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts, so he could be a hanger; but the talent must be respected. Perhaps the change in rider to Carol Cedeno will keep him focused through the wire.
Hyman Roth is a career three for nine on the grass, as well as being two-for-four at tonight's distance. Hyman Roth will also be getting some much needed class relief here.
George Cross has finished in the money in each of his last four races, twice disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. George Cross is another that may benefit from a rider change, in this case to Matthew Rispoli.
RACE 5 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Oak Bluffs (ML 6-1)
# 8 Jersey Jet (ML 5-1)
# 9 Papadopalous (ML 9-2)
# 10 Ride Ride Ride (ML 15-1)
# 11 Chaser (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Oak Bluffs gets a fast turnaround after taking the Place over this turf course at tonight's distance last week. Jersey Jet has been in the Exacta in both his career starts on this turf course. Papadopalous gets some much need class relief.
Ride Ride Ride is a career one-for-two over this turf course, and his Tomlinson Rating for the distance suggests that he'll appreciate having to cover less real estate. Chaser crossed the wire first last time out on this turf course at tonight's distance, but got DQ'd back to last.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Fifth Ave Fancy (ML 9-5)
# 9 The High Priest (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Kipling Boy (ML 8-1)
# 4 Money Zapper (ML 6-1)
Kipling Boy took the Show against more expensive two starts back. Money Zapper took the Place in his only prior turf start. The High Priest gets some much needed class relief.
Fifth Ave Fancy missed by less than a length at this level last time out, and has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure by a lot. But look out; the last two times Fifth Ave Fancy earned a Beyer of 70 or higher he finished well out of the money next time out, even without changing class levels.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$0.10 P6: 1,6 with 5 with 9 with 2,7,8 with 6,8,9,10,11 with 5,9 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.10 P6: 1,6 with 8 with 9 with 2,7,8 with 6,8,9,10,11 with 5,9 $6.00
$0.10 P6: 1,6 with 5 with 5,6,7 with 2,7,8 with 6,8,9,10,11 with 5,9 $18.00
$0.10 P6: 1,6 with 5 with 9 with 2,7,8 with 6,8,9,10,11 with 2,4 $6.00
Total: $36.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/24/14 GG R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, took a step up in the world, both literally and figuratively, as he headed back upstate to Golden Gate Fields to compete in Race 7 Friday, a $25k Optional Claimer (City Chapel was not in for a tag).
Breaking widest in a field of ten, City Chapel (Final Odds 13.70) continued to run wide around the first turn and through the backstretch. City Chapel made a nice middle move through the second turn, but didn't have enough left for the drive and finished fifth, six and a half lengths behind the winner, Yahoo Tahoe (7.00). For his efforts City Chapel earned $600 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo to $110,205.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking widest in a field of ten, City Chapel (Final Odds 13.70) continued to run wide around the first turn and through the backstretch. City Chapel made a nice middle move through the second turn, but didn't have enough left for the drive and finished fifth, six and a half lengths behind the winner, Yahoo Tahoe (7.00). For his efforts City Chapel earned $600 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo to $110,205.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, October 20, 2014
10/19/14 SA R1 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
They gave her a quick six day turnaround; they moved her back to the turf; they moved her back up to MSW; and they brought back Jockey Iggy Puglisi to sit on her back. A lot of changes; but the result was pretty much what you've come to expect.
Paralyzing Eyes, the five year old maiden mare trained by Bruce Jackson and owned by Marie Jackson that we've been following, made her third start of 2014 in Race 1 at Santa Anita Sunday after having just competed the previous Monday, October 13. After being fractious in the gate, Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 98.20) was second at the break, fell back to seventh by the time they hit the first quarter mark, and crossed the wire after eight furlongs last in the field of eight, twenty lengths behind the winner, Demonica (3.80). The loss brings Paralyzing Eyes career mark to oh-for-sixteen.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Paralyzing Eyes, the five year old maiden mare trained by Bruce Jackson and owned by Marie Jackson that we've been following, made her third start of 2014 in Race 1 at Santa Anita Sunday after having just competed the previous Monday, October 13. After being fractious in the gate, Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 98.20) was second at the break, fell back to seventh by the time they hit the first quarter mark, and crossed the wire after eight furlongs last in the field of eight, twenty lengths behind the winner, Demonica (3.80). The loss brings Paralyzing Eyes career mark to oh-for-sixteen.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 19, 2014
10/19/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Uniformity - # 7 Red Outlaw (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Windy Forecast (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Frensham (3.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Posh Girl (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Sometimes you do better than the results may indicate. This was one of those times where we did much worse then you may gather by looking at just the results.
Yes, we managed to capture three "A's", which sure looks impressive on the scoreboard. But we failed to identify Red Outlaw as a standout in the Uniformity, in which he was an easy winner; we underestimated the ability of the experienced runners in the second leg of the sequence; and the finale, a race we thought was pure chaos, turned out to be one of the most formful contests of this weekend. We went over budget on a play where our only winning selections were chalk. So while we connected three of the four dots, it most definitely was not a good showing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 10 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $51.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Windy Forecast (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Frensham (3.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Posh Girl (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Sometimes you do better than the results may indicate. This was one of those times where we did much worse then you may gather by looking at just the results.
Yes, we managed to capture three "A's", which sure looks impressive on the scoreboard. But we failed to identify Red Outlaw as a standout in the Uniformity, in which he was an easy winner; we underestimated the ability of the experienced runners in the second leg of the sequence; and the finale, a race we thought was pure chaos, turned out to be one of the most formful contests of this weekend. We went over budget on a play where our only winning selections were chalk. So while we connected three of the four dots, it most definitely was not a good showing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 10 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $51.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/19/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita has a pair of races charging down the hill, including a stakes event. There's also a pair of maiden contests, one of which looks like a race that nobody will win. I strongly suspect this play is going to go over budget; but we'll see.
RACE 6 - The Uniformity $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 2 Forever Juanito (Morning Line 8-1)
# 7 Red Outlaw (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Daraybi (ML 7-2)
# 5 Street Icon (ML 3-1)
Red Outlaw has won all five of his prior career starts, including an ungraded stakes win charging down the hill in February. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner charging down the hill.
Daraybi (Fr) is a stakes winner in Europe. Daraybi occasionally flashed early speed while racing in France; such type often do well in North America. Street Icon won an OC 80k/N1X charging down the hill in January; but that was for a different barn, and with a different jockey.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Windy Forecast (ML 5-2)
# 8 Suva Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 9 Girl Downstairs (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Lilies and Roses (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lady Dedlock (ML 12-1)
# 7 La Mexicana (ML 50-1) has been scratched.
Windy Forecast took the Place at this level in her debut two starts back, and then tried Grade 1 company with significantly poorer results.
Suva Harbor and Girl Downstairs are both making their second career starts for trainers (David Hofmans and Bob Baffert, respectively) who do quite well with such. Both runners performed well in their respective debuts, finishing within two lengths of the winner at this class level.
Lilies and Roses is a first time starter sired by Super Saver, whose progeny win approximately 12.5% of their debuts. Lilies and Roses had a sharp workout over this track on the 15th, and the presence of Elvis Trujillo in the saddle suggests that she may be ready to roll.
Lady Dedlock is a first time starter for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with approximately 19% of such. Lady Dedlock also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for today's distance.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Gangnam Guy (ML 4-1)
# 3 Law Dog (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 8 Lucky Views (ML 6-1)
# 1 El Tovar (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
As I did for yesterday's Race 8, I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances; but, again, reading the conditions, it's pretty clear that it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Gangnam Guy just missed by a head of being a stakes winner charging down the hill. Gangnam Guy has taken the Place in both of his turf sprints on this course.
Law Dog gets some class relief in his first try on this turf course. He also gets Rafael Bejarano on his back, which is certainly not a negative.
Lucky Views, like Gangnam Guy, is trained by Michael Machowsky. Lucky Views has finished in the Trifecta in two of his three starts on this turf course. Lucky Views demonstrated the ability to gain on the leaders late in his last start; that's a trait that may serve him well in this contest.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Jo's Approval (ML 9-2)
# 2 Turn On (ML 4-1)
# 7 Push Girl (ML 8-5)
# 8 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Pink Laces (ML 30-1)
# 4 She'smorethanalady (ML 6-1)
# 6 Miners Lass (ML 12-1)
# 5 Groovy Journey (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Jo's Approval had her best race two starts back in her only prior start with Mario Gutierrez on her back. Only one opponent in this field has a better career Beyer Speed Figure than the one Jo's Approval earned in that race.
Turn On had two sharp workouts prior to her last start; so how did the public react? They sent her off at over 50-1. And, to her credit, Turn On ran like a horse that deserved to go off at over 50-1. Anyway, this is her first time in for a tag; perhaps this afternoon she'll run like she did on those two mornings.
Push Girl was able to make the early lead against more expensive in her debut last time out. Today she'll run without blinkers; perhaps that'll help her save something for the stretch.
Southern Owah finished ninth in a field of ten in her debut at this level last time out; and, believe it or not, she earned in that effort the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
The "C's" are everyone else. While I'm not convinced, I feel confident that one of these seven horses will win this race. Probably.
OK, that's the analysis; and, yeah, we're over budget. I don't have the confidence to single Red Outlaw in Race 6 because I don't think much of the level of competition that he's beaten so far. I don't want to drop the first time starters in Race 7 because none of the experienced runners have come all that close to earning a speed figure within par for the class. And the finale is pure chaos; I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for that one. But, this is the way I see it. We'll be playing our tickets as usual using the Crist method, but without doubling down on the "All A Entries" wager. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 8 with 1,2,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 3,4,6 $18.00
Total: $94.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - The Uniformity $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 2 Forever Juanito (Morning Line 8-1)
# 7 Red Outlaw (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Daraybi (ML 7-2)
# 5 Street Icon (ML 3-1)
Red Outlaw has won all five of his prior career starts, including an ungraded stakes win charging down the hill in February. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner charging down the hill.
Daraybi (Fr) is a stakes winner in Europe. Daraybi occasionally flashed early speed while racing in France; such type often do well in North America. Street Icon won an OC 80k/N1X charging down the hill in January; but that was for a different barn, and with a different jockey.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Windy Forecast (ML 5-2)
# 8 Suva Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 9 Girl Downstairs (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Lilies and Roses (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lady Dedlock (ML 12-1)
# 7 La Mexicana (ML 50-1) has been scratched.
Windy Forecast took the Place at this level in her debut two starts back, and then tried Grade 1 company with significantly poorer results.
Suva Harbor and Girl Downstairs are both making their second career starts for trainers (David Hofmans and Bob Baffert, respectively) who do quite well with such. Both runners performed well in their respective debuts, finishing within two lengths of the winner at this class level.
Lilies and Roses is a first time starter sired by Super Saver, whose progeny win approximately 12.5% of their debuts. Lilies and Roses had a sharp workout over this track on the 15th, and the presence of Elvis Trujillo in the saddle suggests that she may be ready to roll.
Lady Dedlock is a first time starter for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with approximately 19% of such. Lady Dedlock also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for today's distance.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Gangnam Guy (ML 4-1)
# 3 Law Dog (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 8 Lucky Views (ML 6-1)
# 1 El Tovar (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
As I did for yesterday's Race 8, I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances; but, again, reading the conditions, it's pretty clear that it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Gangnam Guy just missed by a head of being a stakes winner charging down the hill. Gangnam Guy has taken the Place in both of his turf sprints on this course.
Law Dog gets some class relief in his first try on this turf course. He also gets Rafael Bejarano on his back, which is certainly not a negative.
Lucky Views, like Gangnam Guy, is trained by Michael Machowsky. Lucky Views has finished in the Trifecta in two of his three starts on this turf course. Lucky Views demonstrated the ability to gain on the leaders late in his last start; that's a trait that may serve him well in this contest.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Jo's Approval (ML 9-2)
# 2 Turn On (ML 4-1)
# 7 Push Girl (ML 8-5)
# 8 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Pink Laces (ML 30-1)
# 4 She'smorethanalady (ML 6-1)
# 6 Miners Lass (ML 12-1)
# 5 Groovy Journey (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Jo's Approval had her best race two starts back in her only prior start with Mario Gutierrez on her back. Only one opponent in this field has a better career Beyer Speed Figure than the one Jo's Approval earned in that race.
Turn On had two sharp workouts prior to her last start; so how did the public react? They sent her off at over 50-1. And, to her credit, Turn On ran like a horse that deserved to go off at over 50-1. Anyway, this is her first time in for a tag; perhaps this afternoon she'll run like she did on those two mornings.
Push Girl was able to make the early lead against more expensive in her debut last time out. Today she'll run without blinkers; perhaps that'll help her save something for the stretch.
Southern Owah finished ninth in a field of ten in her debut at this level last time out; and, believe it or not, she earned in that effort the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
The "C's" are everyone else. While I'm not convinced, I feel confident that one of these seven horses will win this race. Probably.
OK, that's the analysis; and, yeah, we're over budget. I don't have the confidence to single Red Outlaw in Race 6 because I don't think much of the level of competition that he's beaten so far. I don't want to drop the first time starters in Race 7 because none of the experienced runners have come all that close to earning a speed figure within par for the class. And the finale is pure chaos; I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for that one. But, this is the way I see it. We'll be playing our tickets as usual using the Crist method, but without doubling down on the "All A Entries" wager. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 8 with 1,2,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 3,4,6 $18.00
Total: $94.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 18, 2014
10/18/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Backstreet Lisa (Final Odds 9.80) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Unblunted (9.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Chilada (3.40) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Ferrero (8.10) - No Selection
We had hoped that # 1 Condition (8.60 ) would be speed on the rail in the finale; but that did not come to pass, as he could not make the lead and soon quit (incidentally, the first four finishers in that last race were all first time starters). We also had no part of the NJ bred in the opening leg who was speed on the rail, as Backstreet Lisa was never headed in her victory. We were correct in our preference for Unblunted and # 6 Kantune (3.00) in Race 7, as those two came running late to form an Exacta that paid $49 for a buck; but the bottom line is that you need to connect four winners to cash, and we failed to do that today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 4 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $3,944.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 7 Unblunted (9.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Chilada (3.40) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Ferrero (8.10) - No Selection
We had hoped that # 1 Condition (8.60 ) would be speed on the rail in the finale; but that did not come to pass, as he could not make the lead and soon quit (incidentally, the first four finishers in that last race were all first time starters). We also had no part of the NJ bred in the opening leg who was speed on the rail, as Backstreet Lisa was never headed in her victory. We were correct in our preference for Unblunted and # 6 Kantune (3.00) in Race 7, as those two came running late to form an Exacta that paid $49 for a buck; but the bottom line is that you need to connect four winners to cash, and we failed to do that today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 1 / 7 / 4 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $3,944.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/18/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Saturday, the Breeders' Cup is just two weeks away, and I really don't have anything else to say in way of introduction. So let's just get to today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Vow Me Over (Morning Line 3-1)
# 4 Educating (ML 7-2)
# 8 Satin Cinnamon (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
# 12 Madam Aamoura (Morning Line 2-1) did not draw in. If she had, she would have been the only runner in the field to have previously finished in the money competing on turf.
Vow Me Over took the Show at today's distance at this class level last time out, when competing over the Del Mar Polytrack. Educating makes her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Satin Cinnamon is sired by Pioneerof the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 21% of their turf debuts.
RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Where's the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Believe Too (ML 5-1)
# 6 Kantune (ML 4-1)
# 7 Unblunted (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fame and Power (ML 4-1)
# 10 Cyrus Alexander (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Believe Too, Kantune, Unblunted, and Fame and Power have all taken the Place at least once at this class level. If I were to play the Win Pool I would give strong consideration to Kantune and/or Unblunted, as both have demonstrated in their brief careers the ability to close on the leader from off the pace; a trait not often found among juveniles.
Where's the Moon and Cyrus Alexander are first time starters conditioned by trainers (Peter Miller and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively) who win quite often with such. In addition, neither Where's the Moon nor Cyrus Alexander show significant gaps in their respective workout pattern. First time starters are generally not a good play when there are several experienced runners who have already finished in the money at this class level; however, the fact that none of the experienced runners in this field has come close to earning a speed figure at par for this level on a fast dirt track suggests that a debut runner could win this contest.
RACE 8 - [S](F) OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tangelo (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances. The Brisnet PPs have it as [S](F) OC 20k/b; but, really, if you look at the conditions, it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Tangelo and Chilada finished third and fourth (respectively) in the same contest last time out against $80k Optional Claiming company that wasn't restricted to state breds. Both were less than a length away from the winner, Royal Temptress, at the wire.
# 7 Toppers Sunshine (ML 12-1), # 10 Marina Del Heat (ML 10-1), and # 11 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1) all exit the same $25k open claimer. They are also the only three entrants in this race with a Win over this turf course. Normally these three would be regarded as top contenders under these race conditions; however, it's my opinion that Tangelo and Chilada have too great a class edge over the rest of this field to justify using any others as contenders.
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Condition (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sindys Luck (ML 4-1)
# 8 Roper (ML 3-1)
# 11 Sonic Fever (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
In his last start, the second of his career, Condition dropped in class from open company into the state bred ranks but failed to show improvement. However, Condition was up on the pace in that last contest, and today he adds blinkers; so he'll be speed on the rail, which must be respected.
Roper just missed graduation by a nose back in July. He then took a two and a half month vacation from competition, and failed miserably as the Post Time Favorite in his return to action. If Roper can return to the form that he showed in July he'll win easily; but if his connections thought that he could return to that July form, they probably wouldn't be dropping him in for a tag.
Sonic Fever took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out, and had a sharp workout over this main track on the 12th.
Sindys Luck is a first time starter sired by Lucky Pulpit, whose progeny win approximately 14.5% of their debuts. Sindys Luck is trained by Jeff Mullins, who wins approximately 29% of the time that he sends a first time starter out in a Maiden Claiming event. I don't like the gap between Sindys Luck's workouts from mid-August to mid-September; and I don't like that Trainer Mullins has only a .06 Winning Percentage with two year olds; but I don't see a clear standout in this field, so on that basis I'll be including Sindys Luck on my ticket.
Oh, yes, that's not a typo above: ticket in the singular is what I'll be playing today. You'll notice that I've slotted all contenders in the "A" slots above. I think these contests are competitive enough that there's little to be gained by separating the contenders into "A's" and "C's"; therefore, we'll be playing just the one caveman style ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,3,6,7,9,10 with 4,5 with 1,7,8,11 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Vow Me Over (Morning Line 3-1)
# 4 Educating (ML 7-2)
# 8 Satin Cinnamon (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
# 12 Madam Aamoura (Morning Line 2-1) did not draw in. If she had, she would have been the only runner in the field to have previously finished in the money competing on turf.
Vow Me Over took the Show at today's distance at this class level last time out, when competing over the Del Mar Polytrack. Educating makes her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Satin Cinnamon is sired by Pioneerof the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 21% of their turf debuts.
RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Where's the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Believe Too (ML 5-1)
# 6 Kantune (ML 4-1)
# 7 Unblunted (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fame and Power (ML 4-1)
# 10 Cyrus Alexander (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Believe Too, Kantune, Unblunted, and Fame and Power have all taken the Place at least once at this class level. If I were to play the Win Pool I would give strong consideration to Kantune and/or Unblunted, as both have demonstrated in their brief careers the ability to close on the leader from off the pace; a trait not often found among juveniles.
Where's the Moon and Cyrus Alexander are first time starters conditioned by trainers (Peter Miller and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively) who win quite often with such. In addition, neither Where's the Moon nor Cyrus Alexander show significant gaps in their respective workout pattern. First time starters are generally not a good play when there are several experienced runners who have already finished in the money at this class level; however, the fact that none of the experienced runners in this field has come close to earning a speed figure at par for this level on a fast dirt track suggests that a debut runner could win this contest.
RACE 8 - [S](F) OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tangelo (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances. The Brisnet PPs have it as [S](F) OC 20k/b; but, really, if you look at the conditions, it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Tangelo and Chilada finished third and fourth (respectively) in the same contest last time out against $80k Optional Claiming company that wasn't restricted to state breds. Both were less than a length away from the winner, Royal Temptress, at the wire.
# 7 Toppers Sunshine (ML 12-1), # 10 Marina Del Heat (ML 10-1), and # 11 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1) all exit the same $25k open claimer. They are also the only three entrants in this race with a Win over this turf course. Normally these three would be regarded as top contenders under these race conditions; however, it's my opinion that Tangelo and Chilada have too great a class edge over the rest of this field to justify using any others as contenders.
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Condition (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sindys Luck (ML 4-1)
# 8 Roper (ML 3-1)
# 11 Sonic Fever (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
In his last start, the second of his career, Condition dropped in class from open company into the state bred ranks but failed to show improvement. However, Condition was up on the pace in that last contest, and today he adds blinkers; so he'll be speed on the rail, which must be respected.
Roper just missed graduation by a nose back in July. He then took a two and a half month vacation from competition, and failed miserably as the Post Time Favorite in his return to action. If Roper can return to the form that he showed in July he'll win easily; but if his connections thought that he could return to that July form, they probably wouldn't be dropping him in for a tag.
Sonic Fever took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out, and had a sharp workout over this main track on the 12th.
Sindys Luck is a first time starter sired by Lucky Pulpit, whose progeny win approximately 14.5% of their debuts. Sindys Luck is trained by Jeff Mullins, who wins approximately 29% of the time that he sends a first time starter out in a Maiden Claiming event. I don't like the gap between Sindys Luck's workouts from mid-August to mid-September; and I don't like that Trainer Mullins has only a .06 Winning Percentage with two year olds; but I don't see a clear standout in this field, so on that basis I'll be including Sindys Luck on my ticket.
Oh, yes, that's not a typo above: ticket in the singular is what I'll be playing today. You'll notice that I've slotted all contenders in the "A" slots above. I think these contests are competitive enough that there's little to be gained by separating the contenders into "A's" and "C's"; therefore, we'll be playing just the one caveman style ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,3,6,7,9,10 with 4,5 with 1,7,8,11 $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, October 13, 2014
10/13/14 SA R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Paralyzing Eyes, the maiden mare trained by Bruce Jackson that we've been following, made her second start of 2014 Monday, in Race 5 at Santa Anita.
In her first start of 2014, in September Paralyzing Eyes had achieved her best career result, taking the Place in a field of ten. Perhaps because of the strain of that effort; perhaps because she had preferred the surface at Los Alamitos; or maybe because she enjoyed having Jockey Iggy Puglisi on her back that day; whatever the reason, Paralyzing Eyes did not build off that effort, but rather regressed to a result which we're more accustomed to on Monday; as Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 36.30) was no closer than seventh at any point in the running, and finished ninth, over seventeen lengths behind the winner, Full of Spice (6.30).
So it remains to be seen if the September success was just an abnormality, or if Paralyzing Eyes simply bounced off that effort, and can be expected to improve next time out. Either way, we'll be following.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
In her first start of 2014, in September Paralyzing Eyes had achieved her best career result, taking the Place in a field of ten. Perhaps because of the strain of that effort; perhaps because she had preferred the surface at Los Alamitos; or maybe because she enjoyed having Jockey Iggy Puglisi on her back that day; whatever the reason, Paralyzing Eyes did not build off that effort, but rather regressed to a result which we're more accustomed to on Monday; as Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 36.30) was no closer than seventh at any point in the running, and finished ninth, over seventeen lengths behind the winner, Full of Spice (6.30).
So it remains to be seen if the September success was just an abnormality, or if Paralyzing Eyes simply bounced off that effort, and can be expected to improve next time out. Either way, we'll be following.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 12, 2014
10/12/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 11 Cacica Dulima (Final Odds 53.10) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Hennythelovepenny (28.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Little Jerry (8.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Matzoh Ball Magic (3.00) - "C" Selection
Sometimes, there are no words; other than:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those few, those very few, who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 8 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $39,673.30 (thirty-nine thousand six hundred seventy-three dollars and thirty cents, for those thinking that might be a typo) for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Hennythelovepenny (28.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Little Jerry (8.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Matzoh Ball Magic (3.00) - "C" Selection
Sometimes, there are no words; other than:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those few, those very few, who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 8 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $39,673.30 (thirty-nine thousand six hundred seventy-three dollars and thirty cents, for those thinking that might be a typo) for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/12/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Hopefully everyone is enjoying their three-day weekend, be it for Columbus Day in the US or Thanksgiving in Canada. Maidens are featured in the late races on today's card at Santa Anita; indeed, three of the final four events are for non-winners ever.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 See Through (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tap Dancing (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Temeeku (ML 9-2)
# 8 Williams Bay (ML 9-2)
See Through has finished in the money in all three of her career starts, including two prior attempts at charging down the hill. Tap Dancing (Ire) makes her North American debut having previously finished in the money in four of her five grass starts in her native Ireland.
Temeeku is by Unusual Heat, while Williams Bay is by Kitten's Joy; so both have enough turf breeding to suggest that they should eventually be enjoying success on the grass.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 So You Say (ML 8-1)
# 7 One Gun (ML 7-2)
# 9 Fateer (ML 8-1)
# 11 Scandal (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 Miss Centerfold (ML 6-1)
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 See Through (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tap Dancing (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Temeeku (ML 9-2)
# 8 Williams Bay (ML 9-2)
See Through has finished in the money in all three of her career starts, including two prior attempts at charging down the hill. Tap Dancing (Ire) makes her North American debut having previously finished in the money in four of her five grass starts in her native Ireland.
Temeeku is by Unusual Heat, while Williams Bay is by Kitten's Joy; so both have enough turf breeding to suggest that they should eventually be enjoying success on the grass.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 So You Say (ML 8-1)
# 7 One Gun (ML 7-2)
# 9 Fateer (ML 8-1)
# 11 Scandal (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 Miss Centerfold (ML 6-1)
If there was one race in this sequence where I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button, this would be it. None of the experienced runners have come close to the speed figure par for this class level in any of their starts, while each of the debut runners seems to have significant flaws. This one has the potential in my opinion to be a real chaos race.
So You Say and Fateer, both trained by Bob Baffert, both finished in the money at this level their respective last time out. Indeed, So You Say has taken the Show at this level in each of her career starts. Fateer has been having problems breaking from the gate, something that you just don't normally see in Baffert-trained runners.
One Gun makes her second career start and adds blinkers for Trainer Simon Callaghan, who does reasonably well in the former category (approximately .15 Winning Percentage, with a positive ROI) and unreasonably poorly in the latter category (zero-for-his last nineteen when adding the hood).
Scandal is a first time starter for Trainer Richard Mandella, who wins with approximately 11% of such. Scandal was sired by Blame, whose progeny have been winning approximately 17% of their debuts.
She's a Big Winner is a first time starter who has been working well over this main track. She's a Big Winner also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. However, it should be noted that She's a Big Winner's conditioner, Peter Eurton, sees his debut runners win only approximately 5% of their attempts.
Miss Centerfold is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 31% of such. However, the offspring of Miss Centerfold's sire, Tiznow, win only approximately 7% of their debut efforts. In addition, Miss Centerfold's workouts have been, shall we say, unhurried.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Husband's Folly (ML 3-1)
# 4 Play Hard to Get (ML 4-1)
# 6 Christopher Street (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Mr Lexis (ML 9-2)
Husband's Folly misses by two noses and a neck of coming into this contest having won four of his last six. Husband's Folly is two-for-four in his career at today's distance, and will get a rider switch today to Rafael Bejarano.
Play Hard to Get faces winners for the first time today; yet despite that fact, Play Hard to Get has been one of the better money makers on grass in this field, with career earning per turf start better than most here. Also note that Play Hard to Get's graduation came at the same distance that they'll be running today.
Christopher Street will be dialing it back in distance today, after having taken the lead and then losing it in the stretch last time out at eleven furlongs. Christopher Street is a lifetime two-for-six on this turf course, making him just one of two in this field with multiple wins on the Santa Anita grass (Husband's Folly is the other).
Mr Lexis has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures since coming north from Peru; but he's yet to find the Winner's Circle in North America.
# 3 Ice Cream Truck (ML 7-2) took the Show two starts back in the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap; but that was on Polytrack. Ice Cream Truck's best shot here would seem to be to get to the lead early, and then smoke the grass before the others can get into gear.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Militant (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Salt of the Earth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Barbara's Passion (ML 10-1)
# 10 Matzoh Ball Magic (ML 4-1)
# 4 The Twelfth Man (ML 5-2) has been scratched
Militant takes a step down the class ladder and gains the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano.
Salt of the Earth looks to see if the thirteenth time will be the charm; normally not a good angle. But only two of Salt of the Earth's prior starts were at today's distance, and he took the Place in both of them.
Barbara's Passion makes his first start with a price tag on his head, as well as making his first start on dirt. Matzoh Ball Magic has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures since adding blinkers, and moves down to a lower class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1,5 with 1,4,6 with 8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 2 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 1,5,10 $36.00
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 11, 2014
10/11/14 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview
Switching it up a bit this Saturday by playing early instead of late, and taking a run at the Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 1 - Clm $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Hurricane Lake (Morning Line (8-5)
C's
# 4 Carlot Cowboy (ML 5-2)
# 1 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 12-1) and # 2 Uncle Dick (ML 5-2) are both competing on a fast dirt track for the first time in their respective careers. Looking at their most recent workouts, I can't see any reason to justify a belief that either of those two is going to take to the dirt today; so if either of those two win, I lose.
# 3 Atascaderan has had some success competing at Los Al, both during the afternoon and the evening. But this is by far the highest class level at which he's ever competed. Maybe Atascaderan can get a big early lead and cross the wire before the others can get going; but I'm betting that doesn't happen today.
Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field with a Win over this Santa Anita main track. Indeed, Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field to have finished in the Trifecta over the Santa Anita main track, and he's done it twice in four career starts. Hurricane Lake is a re-claim by Trainer Jeff Bonde, for whom Hurricane Lake recorded his last two victories.
Carlot Cowboy has been popular at the claim box, and took the Place at this level two starts back.
# 5 Perfect Set (ML 7-2) won at today's distance two starts back; but that was over the Del Mar Polytrack and against much, much cheaper competition. Perfect Set did not finish within a dozen lengths of the winner in either of his two prior starts on real dirt; so while his 9/29 workout over this main track was sharp, it's not enough to convince me that Perfect Set can win in this spot.
RACE 2 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Desert Dynamo (ML 3-1)
# 3 Stand and Salute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zendai (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Liberty First (ML 4-1)
# 4 Iancol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Masters Circle (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Desert Dynamo is a first time starter for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Desert Dynamo was sired by Desert Party, whose juvenile offspring win approximately 14% of their debut contests. Desert Dyanmo has been showing steady workouts since mid-August, including a pair of bullets over this main track last month.
Stand and Salute disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his debut, taking the Place in an un-Graded Stakes event upstate back in August. Expect him to improve in his return thanks to the rest he's received since that contest.
Zendai took the Place in his debut at this level, then tried restricted stakes company his last time out, where he led them most of the way before tiring. Zendai should benefit from the turnback in distance.
Liberty First is a first time starter from Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Liberty First was sired by Pulpit, whose juvenile progeny win approximately 13% of the time at first asking. The concern I have is with the gap between the 9/13 and 9/24 workouts. Perhaps it's a minor thing that should be overlooked; but this is a rather tough field for two year old maidens, and it looks like it's going to take a peak effort by one of these to win.
RACE 3 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 I'm Popeye (ML 4-1)
# 6 Top Drawer (ML 6-5)
C's
# 1 Cloudy River (ML 4-1)
# 5 One More Roll (ML 4-1)
If one of these juveniles figures out how to rate today, they are going to have a huge advantage over the rest of this field. I'm Popeye may already have that ability; since he won his only prior race, he's the only runner in this field to have not lost because he didn't make the early lead. I'm Popeye is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with placing his chargers that win their last time out, getting repeat winners approximately 28% of the time with such. A concern is the gap between the 9/14 and 9/28 workout; but otherwise I'm Popeye looks to improve off his debut effort.
Top Drawer has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field by a bunch, a number earned while taking the Show in the same restricted stakes event in which Zendai finished fourth. So while it won't help you when putting together a Pick Five or Pick Four play, perhaps you can gain some insight as to how Top Drawer will run here by how Zendai does in Race 2.
Cloudy River's lone Win came via DQ; but he did gain ground on the leader in his debut, so perhaps he can win off the pace today. One More Roll could be the speed of the speed here; if none of these rate, then One More Roll looks like the most likely to lead them gate to wire.
RACE 4 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Polytechnicien (ML 3-1)
# 7 Press Baron (GB) (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 Stoney Fleece (ML 4-1)
# 6 Compari (ML 3-1)
Polytechnicien won upstate his last time out; and though that victory came against much cheaper, it could be a signal that Polytechnicien is returning to the form that he showed earlier this year, when he defeated $75k claimers over this turf course.
Stoney Fleece finished in the money each of his last two time out, both against more expensive stock. Press Baron (GB) donned the blinkers last time out and took a Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who was aboard for that win, will be in the saddle again today.
Compari is obviously past his prime; but he has six Wins in his nine career starts over the Santa Anita grass, and such an obvious horse for the course must be respected, regardless of age.
RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 He's a Bling (ML 3-1)
# 7 Well Lawyered (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Majestic Charlie (ML 6-1)
# 4 Alfa Bird (ML 5-2)
He's a Bling has missed graduating by less than a length in each of his last three starts. Perhaps the rider switch to Mike Smith will give him that little extra that he needs to get past the wire first.
Well Lawyered makes his first start of 2014; Trainer Simon Callaghan wins with approximately 23% of those coming back from an extended leave of greater than six months. Well Lawyered has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, a number earned over this main track over today's distance. While away Well Lawyered underwent the ultimate equipment change, and will be making his first start today as a gelding.
Majestic Charlie is a first time starter for Trainer John Sadler, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Majestic Charlie was sired by Indian Charlie, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Majestic Charlie also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.
Alfa Bird took the Place in his debut at this level last time out. If they ran these races in the morning rather than in the afternoon Alfa Bird would be a cinch; note the two bullet workouts over the Santa Anita main track, as well as the bullet work over at Del Mar prior to his debut there. There's a good chance that I may regret making Alfa Bird a "C" Selection rather than an "A"; but Alfa Bird is trained by Victor Garcia, whose runners normally don't advance in their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 4 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 5 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 1,5 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 1,4 $12.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - Clm $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Hurricane Lake (Morning Line (8-5)
C's
# 4 Carlot Cowboy (ML 5-2)
# 1 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 12-1) and # 2 Uncle Dick (ML 5-2) are both competing on a fast dirt track for the first time in their respective careers. Looking at their most recent workouts, I can't see any reason to justify a belief that either of those two is going to take to the dirt today; so if either of those two win, I lose.
# 3 Atascaderan has had some success competing at Los Al, both during the afternoon and the evening. But this is by far the highest class level at which he's ever competed. Maybe Atascaderan can get a big early lead and cross the wire before the others can get going; but I'm betting that doesn't happen today.
Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field with a Win over this Santa Anita main track. Indeed, Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field to have finished in the Trifecta over the Santa Anita main track, and he's done it twice in four career starts. Hurricane Lake is a re-claim by Trainer Jeff Bonde, for whom Hurricane Lake recorded his last two victories.
Carlot Cowboy has been popular at the claim box, and took the Place at this level two starts back.
# 5 Perfect Set (ML 7-2) won at today's distance two starts back; but that was over the Del Mar Polytrack and against much, much cheaper competition. Perfect Set did not finish within a dozen lengths of the winner in either of his two prior starts on real dirt; so while his 9/29 workout over this main track was sharp, it's not enough to convince me that Perfect Set can win in this spot.
RACE 2 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Desert Dynamo (ML 3-1)
# 3 Stand and Salute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zendai (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Liberty First (ML 4-1)
# 4 Iancol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Masters Circle (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Desert Dynamo is a first time starter for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Desert Dynamo was sired by Desert Party, whose juvenile offspring win approximately 14% of their debut contests. Desert Dyanmo has been showing steady workouts since mid-August, including a pair of bullets over this main track last month.
Stand and Salute disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his debut, taking the Place in an un-Graded Stakes event upstate back in August. Expect him to improve in his return thanks to the rest he's received since that contest.
Zendai took the Place in his debut at this level, then tried restricted stakes company his last time out, where he led them most of the way before tiring. Zendai should benefit from the turnback in distance.
Liberty First is a first time starter from Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Liberty First was sired by Pulpit, whose juvenile progeny win approximately 13% of the time at first asking. The concern I have is with the gap between the 9/13 and 9/24 workouts. Perhaps it's a minor thing that should be overlooked; but this is a rather tough field for two year old maidens, and it looks like it's going to take a peak effort by one of these to win.
RACE 3 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 I'm Popeye (ML 4-1)
# 6 Top Drawer (ML 6-5)
C's
# 1 Cloudy River (ML 4-1)
# 5 One More Roll (ML 4-1)
If one of these juveniles figures out how to rate today, they are going to have a huge advantage over the rest of this field. I'm Popeye may already have that ability; since he won his only prior race, he's the only runner in this field to have not lost because he didn't make the early lead. I'm Popeye is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with placing his chargers that win their last time out, getting repeat winners approximately 28% of the time with such. A concern is the gap between the 9/14 and 9/28 workout; but otherwise I'm Popeye looks to improve off his debut effort.
Top Drawer has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field by a bunch, a number earned while taking the Show in the same restricted stakes event in which Zendai finished fourth. So while it won't help you when putting together a Pick Five or Pick Four play, perhaps you can gain some insight as to how Top Drawer will run here by how Zendai does in Race 2.
Cloudy River's lone Win came via DQ; but he did gain ground on the leader in his debut, so perhaps he can win off the pace today. One More Roll could be the speed of the speed here; if none of these rate, then One More Roll looks like the most likely to lead them gate to wire.
RACE 4 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Polytechnicien (ML 3-1)
# 7 Press Baron (GB) (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 Stoney Fleece (ML 4-1)
# 6 Compari (ML 3-1)
Polytechnicien won upstate his last time out; and though that victory came against much cheaper, it could be a signal that Polytechnicien is returning to the form that he showed earlier this year, when he defeated $75k claimers over this turf course.
Stoney Fleece finished in the money each of his last two time out, both against more expensive stock. Press Baron (GB) donned the blinkers last time out and took a Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who was aboard for that win, will be in the saddle again today.
Compari is obviously past his prime; but he has six Wins in his nine career starts over the Santa Anita grass, and such an obvious horse for the course must be respected, regardless of age.
RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 He's a Bling (ML 3-1)
# 7 Well Lawyered (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Majestic Charlie (ML 6-1)
# 4 Alfa Bird (ML 5-2)
He's a Bling has missed graduating by less than a length in each of his last three starts. Perhaps the rider switch to Mike Smith will give him that little extra that he needs to get past the wire first.
Well Lawyered makes his first start of 2014; Trainer Simon Callaghan wins with approximately 23% of those coming back from an extended leave of greater than six months. Well Lawyered has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, a number earned over this main track over today's distance. While away Well Lawyered underwent the ultimate equipment change, and will be making his first start today as a gelding.
Majestic Charlie is a first time starter for Trainer John Sadler, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Majestic Charlie was sired by Indian Charlie, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Majestic Charlie also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.
Alfa Bird took the Place in his debut at this level last time out. If they ran these races in the morning rather than in the afternoon Alfa Bird would be a cinch; note the two bullet workouts over the Santa Anita main track, as well as the bullet work over at Del Mar prior to his debut there. There's a good chance that I may regret making Alfa Bird a "C" Selection rather than an "A"; but Alfa Bird is trained by Victor Garcia, whose runners normally don't advance in their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 4 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 5 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 1,5 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 1,4 $12.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 5, 2014
10/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Zuma Beach - # 4 Luck of the Kitten (Final Odds 2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Winning Vision (11.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Surfer Girl - # 5 Her Emmynency (1.10*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Acceptance (5.50) - No Selection
One of the chances you take when you play against the Favorite (either by leaving them off the ticket completely or by making them a "C" Selection) is that, if they turn out to be legitimate, they can make you look awfully foolish. So it was when Emmynency, the only Favorite in the sequence that we did not use as an "A" Selection, became the only Favorite in the sequence to Win (indeed, the only Favorite in the sequence to finish in the money), as she was in the right place at the right time when the rail opened up out of the turn and she burst through it, winning The Surfer Girl by over two and a half lengths. Of course, the point became moot as far as our play was concerned when first time starter Acceptance, who was nowhere to be found on our tickets, won the finale by as many as he pleased, after being bet down by the public from his Morning Line of 12-1.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 11 / 5 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $908.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Winning Vision (11.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Surfer Girl - # 5 Her Emmynency (1.10*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Acceptance (5.50) - No Selection
One of the chances you take when you play against the Favorite (either by leaving them off the ticket completely or by making them a "C" Selection) is that, if they turn out to be legitimate, they can make you look awfully foolish. So it was when Emmynency, the only Favorite in the sequence that we did not use as an "A" Selection, became the only Favorite in the sequence to Win (indeed, the only Favorite in the sequence to finish in the money), as she was in the right place at the right time when the rail opened up out of the turn and she burst through it, winning The Surfer Girl by over two and a half lengths. Of course, the point became moot as far as our play was concerned when first time starter Acceptance, who was nowhere to be found on our tickets, won the finale by as many as he pleased, after being bet down by the public from his Morning Line of 12-1.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 11 / 5 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $908.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space." - Johnny Cash
Juveniles dominate the latter races at Santa Anita today, as three of the four legs of the Late Pick Four (including both stakes) are for two year olds; so it should be a competitive sequence. Let's get to it.
RACE 6 - The Zuma Beach $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Luck of the Kitten (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Dallas Skyline (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Highway Boss (ML 8-1)
Luck of the Kitten is yet another of the Kitten Joy brood, and we all know that those cats are tough to beat on the grass. Luck of the Kitten has been in the Exacta in all three of his career starts.
Dallas Skyline came from off the pace to win his turf debut, then tried to run on the lead in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes and gradually faded. Mike Smith gets the mount today.
Highway Boss closed well last time out in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf, his first try on the grass. Highway Boss was a stakes winner on dirt back in July in a state bred only event.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Sweet Marini (ML 3-1)
# 5 Rovenna (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 11 Winning Vision (ML 15-1)
Not sure why, but my copy of Brisnet Past Performances lists this one as an N2X. Curious if other PPs out there have the same error.
Sweet Marini won the state bred only Fleet Treat Stakes this Summer, took the Show in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap, and took the Place last time out at today's class level. However, all three of those contests were run over the Del Mar Polytrack; so we'll have to wait and see if that form carries over to real dirt today.
Rovenna won a pair of state bred only stakes over this main track earlier this year. Rovenna is four-for-five in her career when competing over a fast dirt track, including three-for-four on the Santa Anita dirt.
Winning Vision had the lead in the stretch last time out at this class level before settling for the Place. It'll be interesting to see if Jockey Kayla Stra can get Winning Vision to break clean without bumping her neighbors.
RACE 8 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Sea Mona (ML 6-1)
# 6 She's Complete (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bobbi Grace (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Devil's Beauty (ML 30-1)
Juveniles dominate the latter races at Santa Anita today, as three of the four legs of the Late Pick Four (including both stakes) are for two year olds; so it should be a competitive sequence. Let's get to it.
RACE 6 - The Zuma Beach $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Luck of the Kitten (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Dallas Skyline (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Highway Boss (ML 8-1)
Luck of the Kitten is yet another of the Kitten Joy brood, and we all know that those cats are tough to beat on the grass. Luck of the Kitten has been in the Exacta in all three of his career starts.
Dallas Skyline came from off the pace to win his turf debut, then tried to run on the lead in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes and gradually faded. Mike Smith gets the mount today.
Highway Boss closed well last time out in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf, his first try on the grass. Highway Boss was a stakes winner on dirt back in July in a state bred only event.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Sweet Marini (ML 3-1)
# 5 Rovenna (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 11 Winning Vision (ML 15-1)
Not sure why, but my copy of Brisnet Past Performances lists this one as an N2X. Curious if other PPs out there have the same error.
Sweet Marini won the state bred only Fleet Treat Stakes this Summer, took the Show in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap, and took the Place last time out at today's class level. However, all three of those contests were run over the Del Mar Polytrack; so we'll have to wait and see if that form carries over to real dirt today.
Rovenna won a pair of state bred only stakes over this main track earlier this year. Rovenna is four-for-five in her career when competing over a fast dirt track, including three-for-four on the Santa Anita dirt.
Winning Vision had the lead in the stretch last time out at this class level before settling for the Place. It'll be interesting to see if Jockey Kayla Stra can get Winning Vision to break clean without bumping her neighbors.
RACE 8 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Sea Mona (ML 6-1)
# 6 She's Complete (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bobbi Grace (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Devil's Beauty (ML 30-1)
# 5 Her Emmynency (ML 5-2)
She's Complete (Ire) and Sea Mona ran one-two in the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes their last time out on the track. Bobbi Grace (Ire) covered the course in good time while breaking her maiden last time out in her native Ireland.
Devil's Beauty won her debut easily (albeit for a tag) and should improve competing on some California grass. Her Emmynency just missed winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Debutante; but that was on the Polytrack, and I'm not convinced that Her Emmynency will hold her form in this, her turf debut.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Hot Lightening (ML 5-1)
# 10 Guy Code (ML 15-1)
# 12 Flexible (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Desert Express (ML 20-1)
# 13 General Dixie (ML 30-1)
Hot Lightening showed good early speed in her debut, and her trainer (Simon Callaghan) gets approximately 20% Winners from runners making their second career start.
Guy Code took the Show at this level last time out. Flexible took the Place at this level (in his debut) last time out.
Desert Express is a first time starter by Desert Party, who was a Graded Stakes winner at two. General Dixie is trained by Mike Puype, whose runners Win approximately 18% of their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 11 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 2,5 with 8,10,12 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 1,13 $12.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 4, 2014
10/4/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Swingtime - # 3 Rhagori (GB) (Final Odds 11.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship - # 2 Rich Tapestry (7.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - The City of Hope Mile - # 4 Big Bane Theory (2.80*) - A Selection
Race 10 - # 12 Compulsive (5.10) - No Selection
That wasn't just bad; that was ugly.
However, in fairness to us, we did have "A" Selections taking the Place in each of the three legs that we missed; indeed, in two of those legs our losing margin was less than a half length. Combined. And our reasoning for leaving out the eventual winners in the legs we missed sure seemed, well, reasonable.
For example, Rich Tapestry was making his first career start on a fast dirt track, going up against not just one but two defending Breeders' Cup winners on a fast dirt track; specifically, this fast dirt track. And while Compulsive was coming off two Show finishes against unrestricted claimers, those two efforts had come on the Del Mar Polytrack. Compulsive had finished out of the money each of the two prior times that he had competed against winners on a fast dirt track; specifically, this fast dirt track.
But reasonable or not, the bottom line is that we whiffed on three of the four races. And that is not a formula for success.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 4 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $3,195.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship - # 2 Rich Tapestry (7.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - The City of Hope Mile - # 4 Big Bane Theory (2.80*) - A Selection
Race 10 - # 12 Compulsive (5.10) - No Selection
That wasn't just bad; that was ugly.
However, in fairness to us, we did have "A" Selections taking the Place in each of the three legs that we missed; indeed, in two of those legs our losing margin was less than a half length. Combined. And our reasoning for leaving out the eventual winners in the legs we missed sure seemed, well, reasonable.
For example, Rich Tapestry was making his first career start on a fast dirt track, going up against not just one but two defending Breeders' Cup winners on a fast dirt track; specifically, this fast dirt track. And while Compulsive was coming off two Show finishes against unrestricted claimers, those two efforts had come on the Del Mar Polytrack. Compulsive had finished out of the money each of the two prior times that he had competed against winners on a fast dirt track; specifically, this fast dirt track.
But reasonable or not, the bottom line is that we whiffed on three of the four races. And that is not a formula for success.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 4 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $3,195.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/4/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the first Saturday in October; and that's pretty much all I've got as far as introductions go. There's a pair of Grade 1's in New York today where two year olds are learning how to run on a sloppy racetrack. There's beautiful weather at Keeneland where bettors are evaluating the new dirt surface. As for me, I'll be turning towards SoCal and taking a run at Santa Anita's Late Pick Four.
RACE 7 - [R] (F) The Swingtime $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Heat Du Jour (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Kathleen Rose (ML 5-2)
# 8 Theatre Star (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Premier Steps (Ire) (ML 5-1)
RACE 7 - [R] (F) The Swingtime $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Heat Du Jour (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Kathleen Rose (ML 5-2)
# 8 Theatre Star (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Premier Steps (Ire) (ML 5-1)
It'll be worth remembering when you see this contest in future Past Performance running lines that this is not an open event, but is restricted to fillies and mares that have not won a stakes of $60k at one mile or over, other than state bred, in 2014.
Heat Du Jour was impressive winning the Solana Beach at Del Mar two starts back, after being claimed for $32k back in May. Expect Heat Du Jour to sit back early and take one run at the leaders in the stretch. Meanwhile, expect Kathleen Rose to try to lead the field all the way around the track, much as she did her last time competing on this turf course in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine, which she just missed winning by a neck.
Theatre Star demonstrated a newfound ability to close from well off the pace in her last start; perhaps that trait will prove useful today if someone can keep the pressure on Kathleen Rose early. The bullet work on 9/27 suggests that Theatre Star will be moving quick once she does get into gear.
The last time Premier Steps (Ire) ran at today's distance over this turf course was in the Grade 3 Wilshire, in which she was able to take the Show.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Secret Circle (ML 7-5)
# 3 Goldencents (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Goldencents won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile here last year; the next day Secret Circle won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. Do you know which of these horses is going to win today? If you do, good for you; because I haven't got a clue, so I'm using them both.
RACE 9 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Mr. Commons (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big Bane Theory (ML 9-2)
# 12 Rock Me Baby (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 6 Trend (ML 15-1)
#10 Pepper Crown (ML 12-1)
Mr. Commons hasn't been able to find the Winner's Circle in his past dozen races. Despite that, Mr. Commons is a top earner on grass, so he should be competitive against this field; and his five finishes in the Exacta in his eight career tries on this turf course suggests that we may see a top performance from Mr. Commons today.
Big Bane Theory is three-for-five in his career on the Santa Anita grass. Rock Me Baby missed by a length of winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile two starts back.
Trend ships back in from upstate after winning a listed stakes two starts back.
Pepper Crown enters this event with a two race winning streak. Back in April, Pepper Crown won the San Francisco Mile. All that, however, was at Golden Gate. This will be Pepper Crown's first start at Santa Anita, so it remains to be seen how he'll handle the surface.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Pressure Time (ML 9-2)
# 5 Clubhouse Rock (ML 6-1)
# 10 Tancred (ML 30-1)
# 14 Malibu Colony (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Small Town Cop (ML 5-1)
# 13 Pillar of Strength (ML 8-1)
Pressure Time is one of several here dropping in class after a claim. Pressure Time just missed winning his only prior start on a fast dirt track by a neck.
Clubhouse Rock missed by just a head at this level over this main track two starts back. I think it's fair to say that Clubhouse Rock did not take to the Del Mar Polytrack last time out.
Tancred may be another that just didn't like the Del Mar Polytrack. Trancred's efforts on the the dirt, both here and at Santa Rosa, against more expensive stock, would certainly put him in the mix if repeated today.
Malibu Colony's only Win came in his only race over this main track, which was also at today's distance.
Small Town Cop won at first asking last time out, and was claimed for $20k. While this class level fits for a horse trying winners for the first time after defeating $20k maidens, the recognition by the new connections that this horse is not worth what they just paid for it suggests that it may have issues not yet publicly revealed.
Pillar of Strength also drops in class immediately off the claim; this after leaving the gate as the Post Time Favorite against more expensive stock last time out. This is the cheapest price tag Pillar of Strength has ever been run for in his career.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to playing our tickets via the Crist method, as usual, but with a twist: the "All A Entries" ticket will also be for the minimum fifty cents. I decided that I'd rather use the additional funds normal used to price protect our top selections to spread wider than our budget would normally allow in the finale. I can't say for certain that this is the best strategy; but based upon the large fields and the wide open nature of the last two legs of the sequence, it seems like the way to go. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 1,5,10,14 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 1,5,10,14 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 6,10 with 1,5,10,14 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 3,13 $18.00
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:16 EDT / 4:16 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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