Race 7 - The Shoemaker Mile - # 5 Hunt (Ire) (Final Odds 9.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Love a Honeybadger (5.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Pulpitinthesky (5.00) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Monrovia - # 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (1.80*) - "A" Selection
The winner of the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, Hunt (Ire), had been a "B" Selection on the early drafts of my Late Pick Four play on Monday. But I can't truly berate myself for not sticking with my initial instincts in that leg, as those early drafts also had Love a Honeybadger, the winner of Race 8, as a "C" Selection. Of course, I could have just bit the bullet and spent the additional thirty-two dollars to have them both on the big ticket. But I didn't, and for that (and other) reasons Monday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 7 / 1 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $869.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, May 28, 2018
5/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day. I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it. We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison
It's Memorial Day (formerly Decoration Day) in the USA, and my hope for each of you on this holiday, wherever you may be, is that you are free to peacefully enjoy this day and every day in a manner of your own choosing. For me, a large part of the enjoyment this day and everyday comes from playing the ponies; so with that, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - The Shoemaker Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Heart to Heart (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 5-2)
# 8 Next Shares (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Blackjackcat (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Pavel (ML 8-1), who finished fourth Saturday in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita.
Heart to Heart is the best horse in this field, and would probably be a big ticket single were he not oh-for-three lifetime over the Santa Anita turf course. Bowies Hero misses by half a length of entering this event with a three race winning streak, all against Graded Stakes company. Next Shares could be the one running best late.
Hunt (Ire) probably needs more distance to show his best. Hunt also would probably much prefer having this race run at Del Mar rather than Santa Anita. But Hunt has shown good tactical speed since adding the blinkers, and if he can find a good position early he may be able to get under the wire in time. Blackjackcat is quick enough out of the gate that Jockey Kent Desormeaux should have him well placed in the early going.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] OC 16k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Wandering Patrol (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Wonderful Lie (ML 5-2)
# 3 Donut Girl (ML 8-1)
# 7 Love a Honeybadger (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Red Stich (ML 6-1)
# 5 Batiquitos (ML 9-2)
# 6 Mixed Emotions (ML 6-1)
Wandering Patrol won her debut last time out, and she could probably win again today with a repeat of that effort. Wonderful Lie could improve with a move to the main track. Wonderful Lie is also going first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.
Donut Girl could improve with a reduction in real estate. Love a Honeybadger will be quick early and then try to hold on late. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bragging Rights (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Pulpitinthesky (ML 6-1)
# 5 Smart Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 9 Purdue (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Apaixonada (ML 20-1)
# 10 Heloise (ML 4-1)
# 11 Power Booked (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 3 Stylist (ML 20-1)
Bragging Rights has finished in the Trifecta at this class level or higher in each of her last three races. Pulpitinthesky drops in for a tag for the first time, and just might ride the rail on the lead from gate to wire. Smart Rachel took the Place at this class level last time out. Purdue had a nice gate work a couple of days ago, and could move up with the class drop.
Apaixonada could improve with a move to the main track. Heloise and Power Booked are a pair of first time starters that could be ready to roll at first asking.
RACE 10 - (F) The Monrovia (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Coniah (ML 5-2)
# 6 Ancient Secret (ML 4-1)
# 8 Causeway Carolyn (ML 30-1)
C's
It's Memorial Day (formerly Decoration Day) in the USA, and my hope for each of you on this holiday, wherever you may be, is that you are free to peacefully enjoy this day and every day in a manner of your own choosing. For me, a large part of the enjoyment this day and everyday comes from playing the ponies; so with that, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - The Shoemaker Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Heart to Heart (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 5-2)
# 8 Next Shares (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Blackjackcat (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Pavel (ML 8-1), who finished fourth Saturday in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita.
Heart to Heart is the best horse in this field, and would probably be a big ticket single were he not oh-for-three lifetime over the Santa Anita turf course. Bowies Hero misses by half a length of entering this event with a three race winning streak, all against Graded Stakes company. Next Shares could be the one running best late.
Hunt (Ire) probably needs more distance to show his best. Hunt also would probably much prefer having this race run at Del Mar rather than Santa Anita. But Hunt has shown good tactical speed since adding the blinkers, and if he can find a good position early he may be able to get under the wire in time. Blackjackcat is quick enough out of the gate that Jockey Kent Desormeaux should have him well placed in the early going.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] OC 16k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Wandering Patrol (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Wonderful Lie (ML 5-2)
# 3 Donut Girl (ML 8-1)
# 7 Love a Honeybadger (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Red Stich (ML 6-1)
# 5 Batiquitos (ML 9-2)
# 6 Mixed Emotions (ML 6-1)
Wandering Patrol won her debut last time out, and she could probably win again today with a repeat of that effort. Wonderful Lie could improve with a move to the main track. Wonderful Lie is also going first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.
Donut Girl could improve with a reduction in real estate. Love a Honeybadger will be quick early and then try to hold on late. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bragging Rights (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Pulpitinthesky (ML 6-1)
# 5 Smart Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 9 Purdue (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Apaixonada (ML 20-1)
# 10 Heloise (ML 4-1)
# 11 Power Booked (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 3 Stylist (ML 20-1)
Bragging Rights has finished in the Trifecta at this class level or higher in each of her last three races. Pulpitinthesky drops in for a tag for the first time, and just might ride the rail on the lead from gate to wire. Smart Rachel took the Place at this class level last time out. Purdue had a nice gate work a couple of days ago, and could move up with the class drop.
Apaixonada could improve with a move to the main track. Heloise and Power Booked are a pair of first time starters that could be ready to roll at first asking.
RACE 10 - (F) The Monrovia (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Coniah (ML 5-2)
# 6 Ancient Secret (ML 4-1)
# 8 Causeway Carolyn (ML 30-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 7 Classy Tune (ML 12-1)
Belvoir Bay (GB) has won three of the four times in her career that she's charged down the Santa Anita hill, most recently in the Grade 3 San Simeon. Coniah took the Place behind Belvoir Bay last time out, and could move up with a better break.
Ancient Secret has run well in each of her last two trips on the downhill turf course. Causeway Carolyn could rebound off her prior effort.
And I'm over budget. Well, that happens sometimes. Hopefully it won't all go down the drain.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 4 with 4 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 2,3,4,7 with 1,4,5,9 with 1,3,6,8 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 4 with 4 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,5,6 with 4 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 7,10,11 with 3 $1.50
Total: $101.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:46 EDT / 3:46 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 27, 2018
5/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Calimonco Action (Final Odds 13.90) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Black Pearl - # 6 Factorofwon (6.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Desert Stormer - # 5 Marley's Freedom (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Jimmy Chila (2.10*) - "A" Selection
How do you find winners at a nice price? Calimonco Action, while well beaten last time out, did finish in the Trifecta at today's class level. Factorofwon was a beneficiary of The Rebound Factor, going third off a layoff of at least forty-five days after having finished in the Trifecta in her return race, and then regressing in her second race off the layoff (that is, her most recent race prior to today). I learned of both of those handicapping angels many, many years ago thanks to the writings of Mark Cramer. Were I to more consistently follow the suggestions of Cramer I would almost certainly spend more time cashing my tickets instead of trashing them.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Stonegate (11.00) - $1,117.15 Finish: 6th
# 5 Data Central (3.50) - $790.65 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Paddock Pick (2.30) - $470.05 Finish: 2nd
# 9 Brighton Boy (24.10) - $1,488.55 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 5 / 4 which paid $382.65 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $315.15 on my initial $67.50 investment, or approximate odds of 4.67-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Black Pearl - # 6 Factorofwon (6.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Desert Stormer - # 5 Marley's Freedom (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Jimmy Chila (2.10*) - "A" Selection
How do you find winners at a nice price? Calimonco Action, while well beaten last time out, did finish in the Trifecta at today's class level. Factorofwon was a beneficiary of The Rebound Factor, going third off a layoff of at least forty-five days after having finished in the Trifecta in her return race, and then regressing in her second race off the layoff (that is, her most recent race prior to today). I learned of both of those handicapping angels many, many years ago thanks to the writings of Mark Cramer. Were I to more consistently follow the suggestions of Cramer I would almost certainly spend more time cashing my tickets instead of trashing them.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Stonegate (11.00) - $1,117.15 Finish: 6th
# 5 Data Central (3.50) - $790.65 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Paddock Pick (2.30) - $470.05 Finish: 2nd
# 9 Brighton Boy (24.10) - $1,488.55 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 5 / 4 which paid $382.65 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $315.15 on my initial $67.50 investment, or approximate odds of 4.67-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The featured race on Sunday's card in Arcadia is the Desert Stormer, a Grade 3 sprint for fillies and mares to be run over the main track. The Desert Stormer did find its way into the final four contests on the program; which is somewhat surprising, as it did only draw five entrants. Be that as it may, I will be taking a look at the Desert Stormer below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Saint Tropez (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 6 Irish Cream N Kate (ML 6-1)
# 8 Baby Brown (ML 5-2)
# 9 Calimonco Action (ML 10-1)
C's
None
Saint Tropaez tumbles all the way down the class ladder after showing good early speed in each of her two starts against non-Claiming Maidens. Irish Cream N Kate could move up with the cutback in distance. Baby Brown took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. Calimonco Action took the Show at this class level last time out.
RACE 7 - (F) The Black Pearl $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 Special Purpose (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Ahimsa (ML 5-2)
# 6 Factorofwon (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Cute Knows Cute (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sappho (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Sappho (Ire) (ML 5-1)
Special Purpose makes her North American debut here, as well as her first start in 2018. Special Purpose took the Show in a Group 3 outing two starts back, so she certainly fits here on class; now it's just a question of how she'll do navigating the downhill course.
Ahimsa did quite well in her first turf try last time out. Factorofwon, fifth in that contest, could improve going third off the layoff.
Cute Knows Cute had to drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in order to graduate last time out; still, Cute Knows Cute should be forwardly placed, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Sappho (Ire) appears to be the one that will be running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) The Desert Stormer (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Miss Sunset (ML 6-5)
# 5 Marley's Freedom (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Cuyathy (ML 10-1)
# 2 Classy Tune (ML 4-1)
# 2 Classy Tune (ML 4-1)
# 3 Yuvetsi (ML 8-1)
Miss Sunset and Marley's Freedom are the two best horses in this contest; and while picking one and ditching the other is a very tempting proposition (as it would halve the cost of the big ticket), there's just not enough difference between the two (in my opinion) to justify the selection of one over the other. The "C" Selections are everyone else; because in a five horse field, why not?
RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Stonegate (ML 8-1)
# 5 Data Central (ML 4-1)
# 8 Paddock Pick (ML 3-1)
# 9 Brighton Boy (ML 6-1)
# 9 Brighton Boy (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Breakers Isle (ML 15-1)
# 7 King Caymus (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Hollywood Square (ML 10-1)
Jimmy Chila failed last time out in his first try charging down the Santa Anita hill; perhaps the experience will serve him well. Stonegate and Brighton Boy are a pair of first time starters that could be ready to roll. Data Central took the Place in his debut last time out routing on the Del Mar turf course.
Paddock Pick tries the grass for the first time, after having finished in the Trifecta in three of his last four races at this class level over the main track. Breakers Isle could move forward in his second career start. King Caymus showed nothing in his debut last time out; but as a son of Kitten's Joy, King Caymus deserves at least a few more chances on the turf.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9 with 2,6,7 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,8,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,5 with 4,5 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 1,2,3 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 3,7 $2.00
Total: $67.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 26, 2018
5/26/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Charlie Whittingham - # 6 Itsinthepost (Fr) (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Fashionably Fast (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Gamely - # 4 Sophie P (GB) (14.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 It's a New Year (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Looking for chaos in the incorrect leg of the sequence was what doomed my Late Pick Four play Saturday; as the nightcap (in which I had gone "ALL") proved to be the opposite of competitive, with the Post Time Favorite winning by a comfortable margin; while the third leg, the Grade 1 Gamely, produced the upset winner. Of course, while the above was a tragic error, it need not have been a fatal error; for had Place finisher and "B" Selection # 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) gotten to the wire just a bit sooner in the Gamely, I would have collected instead of contributed Saturday. How close did I come to collecting? That close.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $357.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Fashionably Fast (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Gamely - # 4 Sophie P (GB) (14.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 It's a New Year (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Looking for chaos in the incorrect leg of the sequence was what doomed my Late Pick Four play Saturday; as the nightcap (in which I had gone "ALL") proved to be the opposite of competitive, with the Post Time Favorite winning by a comfortable margin; while the third leg, the Grade 1 Gamely, produced the upset winner. Of course, while the above was a tragic error, it need not have been a fatal error; for had Place finisher and "B" Selection # 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) gotten to the wire just a bit sooner in the Gamely, I would have collected instead of contributed Saturday. How close did I come to collecting? That close.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $357.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/26/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Saturday kicks off a three day holiday weekend in the US, and an unofficial beginning to Summer in the States. Hopefully it will also kick off a fun and exciting period for us all, along with a time of good fortune and good fun. The card in Arcadia is brimming with Graded Stakes, including a pair which have found their way into the final four contests on the program. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The Charlie Whittingham (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Itsinthepost (Fr) (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 4 What a View (ML 6-1)
# 8 Syntax (Ire) (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 2 Full of Luck (Chi) (ML 12-1), who will be running in the Grade 1 Gold Cap at Santa Anita (Race 5) on the main track. Also scratch # 7 Ritzy A. P. (ML 20-1).
Itsinthepost (Fr) looks clearly best here, and if Itsinthepost runs his race Saturday, he wins. Flamboyant (Fr) and Syntax (Ire), both talented runners, will be trying yet again to get to the wire in front of Itsinthepost; perhaps today one or both of them will. What a View appears to be the quickest of this bunch, and will try to steal it on the front end.
RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Baby Grock (ML 6-5)
B's
# 2 Fashionably Fast (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Old Indian Trick (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cayate (ML 6-1)
# 5 Git On Your Pulpit (ML 6-1)
Baby Grock took the Place at this class level in each of his last two races. Fashionably Fast showed good form in his debut two starts back, and appears to have recovered from whatever caused him to be vanned off last time out.
Old Indian Trick took the Show in his debut last time out, five lengths behind Baby Grock; perhaps Old Indian Trick can make up the distance today. Cayate has shown the ability in the past to hit the board at this level; perhaps today Cayate can take the next step forward. Git On Your Pulpit might improve with the blinkers being added.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Mopotism (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Midnight Crossing (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Sophie (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Uni (GB) (ML 3-1)
Beau Recall (Ire), winner of the Grade 2 Royal Heroine last time out, could improve with the increase in real estate. Hawksmoor (Ire) may be in the throes of a touch of seconditis; but Hawksmoor certainly fits here on class.
Madam Dancealot (Ire) could be the one running best late. Mopotism, the only North American bred in this field, is trying grass for the first time. Her breeding suggests that she'll handle the surface switch just fine.
The C Selections are everyone else. Uni (GB) was a clear standout here; and while I don't consider this a chaos race with Uni out of the picture, it is a contest that could produce an unexpected winner.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Imagineiamfastest (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 North County Guy (ML 9-2)
# 2 Katzumoto (ML 6-1)
# 3 Livin On Prayer (ML 12-1)
# 5 Derby Factor (ML 50-1)
# 6 Catability (ML 20-1)
# 7 It's a New Year (ML 7-2)
# 8 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 6-1)
# 9 For a Good Cause (ML 12-1)
# 10 Flynn (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Imagineiamfastest found seven furlongs just a bit too far to run last time out, and could improve with the shortened distance. The "B's" are everyone else. No reason to get cute here, as this is a very competitive contest with over half the field being legitimate Win candidates.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,7 with 1,3,6,7 with ALL $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,8 with 7 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,5 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 2,4,8 with 4 $1.50
Total: $49.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - The Charlie Whittingham (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Itsinthepost (Fr) (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 4 What a View (ML 6-1)
# 8 Syntax (Ire) (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 2 Full of Luck (Chi) (ML 12-1), who will be running in the Grade 1 Gold Cap at Santa Anita (Race 5) on the main track. Also scratch # 7 Ritzy A. P. (ML 20-1).
Itsinthepost (Fr) looks clearly best here, and if Itsinthepost runs his race Saturday, he wins. Flamboyant (Fr) and Syntax (Ire), both talented runners, will be trying yet again to get to the wire in front of Itsinthepost; perhaps today one or both of them will. What a View appears to be the quickest of this bunch, and will try to steal it on the front end.
RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Baby Grock (ML 6-5)
B's
# 2 Fashionably Fast (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Old Indian Trick (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cayate (ML 6-1)
# 5 Git On Your Pulpit (ML 6-1)
Baby Grock took the Place at this class level in each of his last two races. Fashionably Fast showed good form in his debut two starts back, and appears to have recovered from whatever caused him to be vanned off last time out.
Old Indian Trick took the Show in his debut last time out, five lengths behind Baby Grock; perhaps Old Indian Trick can make up the distance today. Cayate has shown the ability in the past to hit the board at this level; perhaps today Cayate can take the next step forward. Git On Your Pulpit might improve with the blinkers being added.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Mopotism (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Midnight Crossing (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Sophie (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Uni (GB) (ML 3-1)
Beau Recall (Ire), winner of the Grade 2 Royal Heroine last time out, could improve with the increase in real estate. Hawksmoor (Ire) may be in the throes of a touch of seconditis; but Hawksmoor certainly fits here on class.
Madam Dancealot (Ire) could be the one running best late. Mopotism, the only North American bred in this field, is trying grass for the first time. Her breeding suggests that she'll handle the surface switch just fine.
The C Selections are everyone else. Uni (GB) was a clear standout here; and while I don't consider this a chaos race with Uni out of the picture, it is a contest that could produce an unexpected winner.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Imagineiamfastest (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 North County Guy (ML 9-2)
# 2 Katzumoto (ML 6-1)
# 3 Livin On Prayer (ML 12-1)
# 5 Derby Factor (ML 50-1)
# 6 Catability (ML 20-1)
# 7 It's a New Year (ML 7-2)
# 8 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 6-1)
# 9 For a Good Cause (ML 12-1)
# 10 Flynn (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Imagineiamfastest found seven furlongs just a bit too far to run last time out, and could improve with the shortened distance. The "B's" are everyone else. No reason to get cute here, as this is a very competitive contest with over half the field being legitimate Win candidates.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,7 with 1,3,6,7 with ALL $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,8 with 7 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,5 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 2,4,8 with 4 $1.50
Total: $49.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 20, 2018
5/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Cool Green (Final Odds 3.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Beas Wild Cat (24.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Life of Illusion (4.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Crystal Water - # 4 Soi Phet (47.40) - No Selection
Saturday I missed cashing my Late Pick Four play by just a neck. Sunday I missed cashing by, well, let's just say by more than a neck. But miss by an inch or miss by a mile, the net result is still the same.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $14,718.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Beas Wild Cat (24.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Life of Illusion (4.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Crystal Water - # 4 Soi Phet (47.40) - No Selection
Saturday I missed cashing my Late Pick Four play by just a neck. Sunday I missed cashing by, well, let's just say by more than a neck. But miss by an inch or miss by a mile, the net result is still the same.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $14,718.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Crystal Water, a two turn romp in the grass for state bred runners, is Sunday's featured race in Arcadia. And that's about all I have by way of introduction; so let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $40k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 R Cha Cha (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Closing Time (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 4 Smuggler Union (ML 12-1)
# 7 Souter (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 8 General Match Four (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Awesome Heights (ML 8-1)
R Cha Cha took the Place at this class level last time out, and will now go first off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who tends to do well with such. Closing Time has shown good tactical speed in the past, and could be the one running best late.
Smuggler Union seems to prefer the flats to the hill; but Smuggler Union's talent must be respected. Souter (GB) is getting some class relief in his return from an extended layoff. General Match Four took the Show behind R Cha Cha last time out, and could move up with a cleaner trip.
Awesome Heights showed absolutely nothing in his last race; but Awesome Heights has run well charging down the Santa Anita hill in the past, so maybe that race is a toss.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Naughty Sophie (ML 3-1)
# 9 Baby Brown (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Tengs Rhythm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Takes Two to Tenga (ML 5-1)
C's
# 7 A Little Romance (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Copper Cowgirl (ML 15-1)
Naughty Sophie and Tengs Rhythm filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Baby Brown took the Place in her debut last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.
Takes Two to Tenga took the Show at this class level last time out. A Little Romance could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Life of Illusion (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Smiling Tigress (ML 5-1)
# 4 Libby's Tail (ML 5-2)
# 5 We All Have Dreams (ML 3-1)
C's
# 7 Conquest Flatterme (ML 5-1)
Life of Illusion has been showing steady improvement, and should have no problem with the distance. Smiling Tigress has been running well against state bred competition, and should be able to handle open company at this level. Libby's Tail ships in from the East, and has been training well over this main track.
We All Have Dreams won by the length of the stretch the last time Flavien Pratt was on her back. Conquest Flatterme has won by daylight each of her last two times competing over this main track; but seven furlongs may be a bridge too far for Conquest Flatterme.
RACE 9 - [S] The Crystal Water $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 B Squared (ML 6-1)
# 2 Accountability (ML 15-1)
# 7 Ward 'n Jerry (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tule Fog (ML 12-1)
# 9 Rye (ML 4-1)
# 12 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Anatolian Heat (ML 15-1)
Ashleyluvssugar is making his 2018 debut here, and has a clear class edge over the rest of this field. B Squared won at this class level last time out, albeit sprinting over the main track. Accountability took a big step forward last time out; which suggests that he might regress off that effort today.
Ward 'n Jerry probably needed that last race, and could be competitive today with a return to the form that he showed earlier this year. Tule Fog should be forwardly placed early. Rye may need more distance to show his best. Camino Del Paraiso has been working well for this.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 11 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,7,8 with 3,4,5,9 with 2,4,5,6 with 11 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 6 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 7 with 6 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 1,2,7,8,9,12 $12.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EDT / 3:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Clm $40k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 R Cha Cha (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Closing Time (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 4 Smuggler Union (ML 12-1)
# 7 Souter (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 8 General Match Four (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Awesome Heights (ML 8-1)
R Cha Cha took the Place at this class level last time out, and will now go first off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who tends to do well with such. Closing Time has shown good tactical speed in the past, and could be the one running best late.
Smuggler Union seems to prefer the flats to the hill; but Smuggler Union's talent must be respected. Souter (GB) is getting some class relief in his return from an extended layoff. General Match Four took the Show behind R Cha Cha last time out, and could move up with a cleaner trip.
Awesome Heights showed absolutely nothing in his last race; but Awesome Heights has run well charging down the Santa Anita hill in the past, so maybe that race is a toss.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Naughty Sophie (ML 3-1)
# 9 Baby Brown (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Tengs Rhythm (ML 4-1)
# 5 Takes Two to Tenga (ML 5-1)
C's
# 7 A Little Romance (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Copper Cowgirl (ML 15-1)
Naughty Sophie and Tengs Rhythm filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Baby Brown took the Place in her debut last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.
Takes Two to Tenga took the Show at this class level last time out. A Little Romance could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Life of Illusion (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Smiling Tigress (ML 5-1)
# 4 Libby's Tail (ML 5-2)
# 5 We All Have Dreams (ML 3-1)
C's
# 7 Conquest Flatterme (ML 5-1)
Life of Illusion has been showing steady improvement, and should have no problem with the distance. Smiling Tigress has been running well against state bred competition, and should be able to handle open company at this level. Libby's Tail ships in from the East, and has been training well over this main track.
We All Have Dreams won by the length of the stretch the last time Flavien Pratt was on her back. Conquest Flatterme has won by daylight each of her last two times competing over this main track; but seven furlongs may be a bridge too far for Conquest Flatterme.
RACE 9 - [S] The Crystal Water $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 B Squared (ML 6-1)
# 2 Accountability (ML 15-1)
# 7 Ward 'n Jerry (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tule Fog (ML 12-1)
# 9 Rye (ML 4-1)
# 12 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 5 Anatolian Heat (ML 15-1)
Ashleyluvssugar is making his 2018 debut here, and has a clear class edge over the rest of this field. B Squared won at this class level last time out, albeit sprinting over the main track. Accountability took a big step forward last time out; which suggests that he might regress off that effort today.
Ward 'n Jerry probably needed that last race, and could be competitive today with a return to the form that he showed earlier this year. Tule Fog should be forwardly placed early. Rye may need more distance to show his best. Camino Del Paraiso has been working well for this.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 11 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,7,8 with 3,4,5,9 with 2,4,5,6 with 11 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 6 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 7 with 6 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 3,9 with 6 with 1,2,7,8,9,12 $12.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EDT / 3:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 19, 2018
5/19/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Fran's Valentine - # 8 Cordiality (Final Odds 4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 12 Nova (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Two Thirty Five (6.40) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - # 6 Ky. Colonel (10.40) - No Selection
In the nightcap at Santa Anita, "A" Selection # 1 Broken Up (7.50) took the lead in the home stretch away from # 8 Secreto Primero (3.00*); but Broken Up couldn't last until the wire, being passed in the final strides by # 6 Ky Colonel (10.40), who hit the line a neck in front of Broken Up to win the nightcap. And that neck was the difference Saturday between collecting and contributing, as a Broken Up victory would have meant cashing one of the backup tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Broken Up (7.50) - $1,231.80 Finish: 2nd
# 12 General Ike (3.80) - $777.05 Finish: 6th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 12 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,154.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - # 12 Nova (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Two Thirty Five (6.40) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - # 6 Ky. Colonel (10.40) - No Selection
In the nightcap at Santa Anita, "A" Selection # 1 Broken Up (7.50) took the lead in the home stretch away from # 8 Secreto Primero (3.00*); but Broken Up couldn't last until the wire, being passed in the final strides by # 6 Ky Colonel (10.40), who hit the line a neck in front of Broken Up to win the nightcap. And that neck was the difference Saturday between collecting and contributing, as a Broken Up victory would have meant cashing one of the backup tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Broken Up (7.50) - $1,231.80 Finish: 2nd
# 12 General Ike (3.80) - $777.05 Finish: 6th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 12 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,154.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/19/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Preakness Day! And while I'll be wishing the best of luck to Justify in Baltimore, my handicapping time will be spent on the Saturday card in Arcadia, California; specially the final four events, which I'll be analyzing below. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Fran's Valentine $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Moonless Sky (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Cordiality (ML 6-1)
B's
# 9 Shy Carmelita (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Speakers (ML 12-1)
# 7 Desert Steel (ML 12-1)
# 10 How About Zero (ML 4-1)
# 11 Barbara Beatrice (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Coco Kisses (ML 30-1) and # 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)
Moonless Sky, winner of this event via DQ last year, has been training well for this contest and should have plenty of pace to chase. Cordiality should be forwardly placed early and could have enough tactical speed to hold off the closers late. Shy Carmelita ran well while winning last time out in her first try on the Santa Anita turf, and Shy Carmelita's form should hold switching from the hill to the flats.
Speakers could be the one running best late. Desert Steel fits well her on class, though Desert Steel's ability to handle the distance is a concern. How About Zero and Barbara Beatrice should improve with the return to the turf.
RACE 10 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Nova (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Poise to Strike (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Perfect Wager (ML 7-2)
# 3 Iron Curtain (ML 8-1)
# 8 North County Guy (ML 4-1)
# 9 Bless His Heart (ML 5-1)
# 11 Cyclolite (ML 30-1)
Nova took the Place against open company last time out. Poise to Strike showed good early speed in his debut last time out, taking the Show behind a next out winner. The concern with Poise to Strike is that debut was back in August, and he hasn't raced since.
Perfect Wager drops in for a tag for the first time. Iron Curtain, returning after an extended layoff, should be forwardly placed. North County Guy took the Place against open company last time out. Bless His Heart flashed good early speed in his debut last time out, and has been working well leading up to this contest. Cyclolite is a first time starter out of Summer Lite, who has produced four winners from four starters.
RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Downtowner (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 8 Swayze (ML 5-1)
# 9 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 11 Arch Prince (ML 10-1)
C's
RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Fran's Valentine $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Moonless Sky (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Cordiality (ML 6-1)
B's
# 9 Shy Carmelita (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Speakers (ML 12-1)
# 7 Desert Steel (ML 12-1)
# 10 How About Zero (ML 4-1)
# 11 Barbara Beatrice (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Coco Kisses (ML 30-1) and # 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)
Moonless Sky, winner of this event via DQ last year, has been training well for this contest and should have plenty of pace to chase. Cordiality should be forwardly placed early and could have enough tactical speed to hold off the closers late. Shy Carmelita ran well while winning last time out in her first try on the Santa Anita turf, and Shy Carmelita's form should hold switching from the hill to the flats.
Speakers could be the one running best late. Desert Steel fits well her on class, though Desert Steel's ability to handle the distance is a concern. How About Zero and Barbara Beatrice should improve with the return to the turf.
RACE 10 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Nova (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Poise to Strike (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Perfect Wager (ML 7-2)
# 3 Iron Curtain (ML 8-1)
# 8 North County Guy (ML 4-1)
# 9 Bless His Heart (ML 5-1)
# 11 Cyclolite (ML 30-1)
Nova took the Place against open company last time out. Poise to Strike showed good early speed in his debut last time out, taking the Show behind a next out winner. The concern with Poise to Strike is that debut was back in August, and he hasn't raced since.
Perfect Wager drops in for a tag for the first time. Iron Curtain, returning after an extended layoff, should be forwardly placed. North County Guy took the Place against open company last time out. Bless His Heart flashed good early speed in his debut last time out, and has been working well leading up to this contest. Cyclolite is a first time starter out of Summer Lite, who has produced four winners from four starters.
RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Downtowner (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 8 Swayze (ML 5-1)
# 9 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 11 Arch Prince (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Sheer Flattery (ML 12-1)
# 2 Magical Mystery (ML 20-1)
# 3 Two Thirty Five (ML 8-1)
# 6 Plum Daddy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Kid Charming (ML 10-1)
# 7 Kid Charming (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 4 Spokane Eagle (ML 12-1) and # 5 Super Duper Cooper (ML 15-1)
Downtowner graduated by daylight for Trainer Bob Baffert last time out, and looks well meant here. Swayze goes second off the layoff for Trainer Phil D'Amato, who tends to do well with such.
Ike Walker has run well in the past at today's distance, and could move up with the class drop. Arch Prince has shown steady improvement in each of his last three starts.
Sheer Flattery fits well here on class, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. Magical Mystery is on the ticket because everyone else is. Two Thirty Five had a nice work over this main track back on the 8th. Plum Daddy has been working well for his return off the extended layoff. Kid Charming could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 12 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Broken Up (ML 8-1)
# 12 General Ike (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Trifecta (ML 6-1)
# 3 Crown the Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 8 Secreto Primero (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 11 Aventador (FR) (ML 12-1)
Broken Up took the Show against more expensive stock last time out. General Ike took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit charging down the Santa Anita Hill.
Trifecta was victorious at this class level two starts back. Crown the Kitten seems to settle for too many minor awards; but Crown the Kitten certainly has the talent to win here today. Secreto Primero rejoins the barn of Trainer Mike Machowsky, for whom he has run well in the past.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,8 with 12 with 10 with 1,12 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,8,9 with 4,12 with 8,9,10,11 with 1,2,3,8,12 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,7,10,11 with 12 with 10 with 1,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 1,3,8,9,11 with 10 with 1,12 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 12 with 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,12 $10.00
Total: $88.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 18, 2018
5/18/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 4 Tough It Out (Final Odds 2.50) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Explorer (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Popular Kid (3.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Winning Element (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Fours were certainly wild in The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita. But that was about all that was wild in the final four contests on Friday's card, as the results were quite formful, with half the events being won by the Post Time Favorite, and no winner in the sequence paying above $9.40.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Hot American (1.50) - $89.50 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Taniko (5.40) - $198.50 Finish: 7th
# 6 Dreams of Valor (10.20) - $320.65 Finish: 4th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 which paid $55.95 for a fifty cent wager. Since my initial investment was $81, I cash at a loss of twenty-five dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 4 Explorer (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Popular Kid (3.70) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Winning Element (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Fours were certainly wild in The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita. But that was about all that was wild in the final four contests on Friday's card, as the results were quite formful, with half the events being won by the Post Time Favorite, and no winner in the sequence paying above $9.40.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 2 Hot American (1.50) - $89.50 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Taniko (5.40) - $198.50 Finish: 7th
# 6 Dreams of Valor (10.20) - $320.65 Finish: 4th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 which paid $55.95 for a fifty cent wager. Since my initial investment was $81, I cash at a loss of twenty-five dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/18/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Preakness weekend, with the Black-Eyed Susan running today and the middle jewel of The Triple Crown on tap for Saturday. But there'll be no Pimlico picks from me over the next couple of days, because the Baltimore track is presently a quagmire, with even more rain in the forecast prior to the big event. So with things soggy in the East I will turn my attention to the West; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 5 - Hcp 16000s - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 My Man Chuckles (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Tough It Out (ML 4-1)
# 7 El Tovar (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Muchos Besos (ML 8-1)
# 9 Lewis Vale (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Beaumarchais (ML 4-1) and # 3 Unusual Meeting (ML 20-1)
My Man Chuckles is undefeated in two starts since joining the barn of Trainer Richard Baltas. Tough It Out won over this turf course at today's distance last time out. El Tovar, winner of each of his last two races, goes first off the claim for Trainer David Jacobson, who has been doing well with such.
Muchos Besos projects to be the early speed, and will try to steal this one on the front end. Lewis Vale fits well here on class, and has shown the ability in the past to win on the grass.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Explorer (ML 4-1)
# 10 Beneficent (ML 5-2)
# 11 Julius (ML 6-1)
B's
# 9 Flagstaff (ML 8-1)
C's
EDIT - # 7 Runaway Saturday (ML 6-1) has been scratched. The tickets below have been updated accordingly.
This non-Winners of One contest drew very well; and it would not surprise were this event to turn into a key race.
RACE 5 - Hcp 16000s - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 My Man Chuckles (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Tough It Out (ML 4-1)
# 7 El Tovar (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Muchos Besos (ML 8-1)
# 9 Lewis Vale (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Beaumarchais (ML 4-1) and # 3 Unusual Meeting (ML 20-1)
My Man Chuckles is undefeated in two starts since joining the barn of Trainer Richard Baltas. Tough It Out won over this turf course at today's distance last time out. El Tovar, winner of each of his last two races, goes first off the claim for Trainer David Jacobson, who has been doing well with such.
Muchos Besos projects to be the early speed, and will try to steal this one on the front end. Lewis Vale fits well here on class, and has shown the ability in the past to win on the grass.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Explorer (ML 4-1)
# 10 Beneficent (ML 5-2)
# 11 Julius (ML 6-1)
B's
# 9 Flagstaff (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Henry County (ML 8-1)
# 5 Holiday Bay (ML 12-1)
# 6 Calabasas (ML 12-1)
EDIT - # 7 Runaway Saturday (ML 6-1) has been scratched. The tickets below have been updated accordingly.
This non-Winners of One contest drew very well; and it would not surprise were this event to turn into a key race.
In my opinion, this race goes through the Morning Line Favorite, Beneficent. Beneficent disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, winning the speed duel but running out of gas before the wire, and just holding on for the Place. The two runners Beneficent finished between in that contest, Kidmon and King Cause, both ran well their next time out; and Beneficent has worked well since that race in preparation for this event.
The concern with Beneficent is that he may find himself in yet another speed duel today, as there are several here that look to be at least as quick as he. And while Beneficent has been working well, it is a bit of a concern that it took him nearly two months to find his way back into the starting gate. Finally, as good a trainer as Art Sherman is, his runners often don't move forward in their second start; and I believe Beneficent will need to improve off that initial effort if he is to get his picture taken today.
So, weighting the pros and cons, I decided to spread a bit in this leg. Explorer and Julius are a pair of first time starters for Trainer Bob Baffert. Flagstaff is a debut runner for Trainer John Sadler. Both trainers are accustomed to winning with those competing for the first time, and all three runners have been working well.
Runaway Saturday took the Show in his debut last time out behind Bolt d'Oro after stumbling badly at the start. The backup "C" Selections are three more first time starters that look like they're ready to roll.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Popular Kid (ML 3-1)
# 5 Trapalanda (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Shaymin (ML 9-2)
Jay Makes Us Laugh fits well here on class; now it's just a question of can he make the distance. Popular Kid ran well in defeat last time out, and could improve with the blinkers being added.
Trapalanda won at this class level the last time today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, was on his back. Shaymin took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - OC 32k/N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Dreams of Valor (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 2 Hot American (ML 5-2)
# 4 Winning Element (ML 2-1)
# 5 Taniko (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 7 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)
This contest is an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, and it's written as follows: first requirement is the runner must have started for a claiming price of $50k or less. That's the Starter Allowance provision. After that hurdle is cleared, it's an N2L Optional Claimer; if your horse has just one victory, then it runs without fear of being claimed. More than one lifetime Win, and he runs with a $40k price tag on his head. For the record, # 1 For Him (ML 12-1) is the only runner in this contest with more than one visit to the Winner's Circle, and therefore eligible to be claimed.
Dreams of Valor has run well in the past against classier competition at today's distance. Hot American won his debut by daylight over this turf course last time out. Winning Element took the Place behind a next out winner last time out. Taniko looks to be the one that will be running best late.
And I'm over budget. Oh well; sometimes that can't be helped.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4,10,11 with 7 with 6 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7 with 4,9,10,11 with 4,5,7 with 2,4,5,6 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,9 with 4,10,11 with 7 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6 with 7 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,10,11 with 2 with 6 $1.50
Total: $81.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:30 EDT / 2:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 13, 2018
5/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Midnight Soot (Final Odds 1.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Multiplier (6.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Harrovian (20.20) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Amazon Cry (4.00) - "B" Selection
In retrospect, all things considered, this probably would have been a good weekend to have played Golden Gate instead.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 5 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $1,628.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Multiplier (6.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Harrovian (20.20) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Amazon Cry (4.00) - "B" Selection
In retrospect, all things considered, this probably would have been a good weekend to have played Golden Gate instead.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 5 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $1,628.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"She raised us with humor, and she raised us to understand that not everything was going to be great-but how to laugh through it." - Liza Minnelli
Happy Mother's Day! Here's wishing a blessed day to all the moms and future moms out there, and offering the hope that all the special people in your life realize just how special you are. And with that let's get to today's action in Arcadia, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Jump the Tracks (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 2 Midnight Soot (ML 7-2)
# 4 Jack and I (ML 10-1)
# 5 It's a New Year (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 June Two Four (ML 10-1)
# 10 Write Me a Song (ML 4-1)
Jump the Tracks should move up with the return to the main track, as suggested by his most recent work on the 7th. Midnight Soot took the Show at this class level last time out, and has done well in the past when competing around two turns. Jack and I drops in class and switches surfaces; if the early foot that Jack and I showed in his last race follows him to the main track, then he will do well here today.
It's a New Year has run well in the past when competing around two turns on this main track. June Two Four seems to fit well at this class level; but June Two Four's ability to make the distance is a concern. Write Me a Song looks talented enough to win at this level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Ritzy A. P. (ML 6-1)
# 6 Mr. Roary (ML 6-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Bird Is the Word (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lifeline (ML 5-1)
# 8 Multiplier (ML 12-1)
# 9 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 2 Fabozzi (ML 6-1)
Fabozzi seems to fit well here on class, and may move up with the increase in real estate. Ritzy A. P. may have needed the last race off the layoff. Mr. Roary has run well in the past at today's distance. Bird Is the Word fits well here on class, but may not be in top form. Lifeline has run well in the past at today's distance, but Lifeline may be outclassed here.
Multiplier, the winner of last year's Illinois Derby and no races since, is trying grass for the first time. While the surface switch may be motivated more by his recent results over the main track rather than by a desire to take advantage of his turf breeding, Multiplier is a talented enough runner that he should not be totally overlooked. Oscar Dominguez (Ire) won comfortably enough last time out that it's fair to consider him a possible contender while moving up in class.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Hackleton (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Saint Dermot (ML 2-1)
# 7 Awe (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Giant Mark (ML 20-1)
# 3 Limited Responses (ML 20-1)
Hackleton crossed under the wire first at this class level last time out, though a DQ forced Hackleton to settle for the Place. Saint Dermot is being priced to sell, and should move up with the class drop. Awe goes first off the claim for Trainer Genaro Vallejo, who tends to do well with such. Saint Mark and Limited Responses are two that could improve with the increase in real estate.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Starting Bloc (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Kopitar (ML 3-1)
# 4 Impression (ML 5-2)
# 5 Amazon Cry (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Hoover Tower (ML 12-1)
# 6 He's Like Violence (ML 20-1)
# 9 Maxinamillion (ML 10-1)
EDIT: Scratch # 1 Elevate (ML 15-1) and # 8 Indian Gulch (ML 12-1). The tickets below have been adjusted.
Starting Bloc goes first off an extended layoff for Trainer Richard Mandella, who tends to do well with such. Kopitar and Impression fit well here on class; though both seem to settle for too many minor awards. Note that Impression and Kopitar have failed as the Post Time Favorite a combined seven times. The hope is that if it comes down to these two in the stretch, one will have to get the victory, unless they both come to a complete stop.
Amazon Cry took the Place at this class level last time out, and could benefit from the cutback in distance. Elevate deserves a second chance after getting injured in his first try at competition. Hoover Tower could be the one running best late. He's Like Violence is on the ticket because everyone else is. Indian Gulch and Maxinamillion are two first time starters that appear ready to roll at first asking.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 8 with 7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5 with 3,6 with 6,7,8 with 3,4,5,7 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 3,6 with 8 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,7,8,9 with 8 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 2,3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 8 with 2,6,9 $3.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Mother's Day! Here's wishing a blessed day to all the moms and future moms out there, and offering the hope that all the special people in your life realize just how special you are. And with that let's get to today's action in Arcadia, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Jump the Tracks (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 2 Midnight Soot (ML 7-2)
# 4 Jack and I (ML 10-1)
# 5 It's a New Year (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 June Two Four (ML 10-1)
# 10 Write Me a Song (ML 4-1)
Jump the Tracks should move up with the return to the main track, as suggested by his most recent work on the 7th. Midnight Soot took the Show at this class level last time out, and has done well in the past when competing around two turns. Jack and I drops in class and switches surfaces; if the early foot that Jack and I showed in his last race follows him to the main track, then he will do well here today.
It's a New Year has run well in the past when competing around two turns on this main track. June Two Four seems to fit well at this class level; but June Two Four's ability to make the distance is a concern. Write Me a Song looks talented enough to win at this level, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Ritzy A. P. (ML 6-1)
# 6 Mr. Roary (ML 6-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Bird Is the Word (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lifeline (ML 5-1)
# 8 Multiplier (ML 12-1)
# 9 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 2 Fabozzi (ML 6-1)
Fabozzi seems to fit well here on class, and may move up with the increase in real estate. Ritzy A. P. may have needed the last race off the layoff. Mr. Roary has run well in the past at today's distance. Bird Is the Word fits well here on class, but may not be in top form. Lifeline has run well in the past at today's distance, but Lifeline may be outclassed here.
Multiplier, the winner of last year's Illinois Derby and no races since, is trying grass for the first time. While the surface switch may be motivated more by his recent results over the main track rather than by a desire to take advantage of his turf breeding, Multiplier is a talented enough runner that he should not be totally overlooked. Oscar Dominguez (Ire) won comfortably enough last time out that it's fair to consider him a possible contender while moving up in class.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Hackleton (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Saint Dermot (ML 2-1)
# 7 Awe (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Giant Mark (ML 20-1)
# 3 Limited Responses (ML 20-1)
Hackleton crossed under the wire first at this class level last time out, though a DQ forced Hackleton to settle for the Place. Saint Dermot is being priced to sell, and should move up with the class drop. Awe goes first off the claim for Trainer Genaro Vallejo, who tends to do well with such. Saint Mark and Limited Responses are two that could improve with the increase in real estate.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Starting Bloc (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Kopitar (ML 3-1)
# 4 Impression (ML 5-2)
# 5 Amazon Cry (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Hoover Tower (ML 12-1)
# 6 He's Like Violence (ML 20-1)
# 9 Maxinamillion (ML 10-1)
EDIT: Scratch # 1 Elevate (ML 15-1) and # 8 Indian Gulch (ML 12-1). The tickets below have been adjusted.
Starting Bloc goes first off an extended layoff for Trainer Richard Mandella, who tends to do well with such. Kopitar and Impression fit well here on class; though both seem to settle for too many minor awards. Note that Impression and Kopitar have failed as the Post Time Favorite a combined seven times. The hope is that if it comes down to these two in the stretch, one will have to get the victory, unless they both come to a complete stop.
Amazon Cry took the Place at this class level last time out, and could benefit from the cutback in distance. Elevate deserves a second chance after getting injured in his first try at competition. Hoover Tower could be the one running best late. He's Like Violence is on the ticket because everyone else is. Indian Gulch and Maxinamillion are two first time starters that appear ready to roll at first asking.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 8 with 7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5 with 3,6 with 6,7,8 with 3,4,5,7 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 9,10 with 3,6 with 8 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,7,8,9 with 8 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 2,3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,6 with 8 with 2,6,9 $3.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 12, 2018
5/12/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Ya Gotta Wanna (Final Odds 7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Trojan Time (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Angels Flight - # 4 Emboldened (14.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Katherine (19.70) - "C" Selection
Troubled trips were at least partially to blame for the failure of my "A" Selections to make it home in the first and third legs Saturday; as # 1 Show It N Moe It (5.10) had to steady midway on the backstretch in the Angels Flight; while # 4 Conquest Typhoon (2.00*) was steadied not once, not twice, but three separate times while taking the Show in the opening stanza.
But as I feared while making my selections, the final leg was a contest destined for chaos, as my three "A" Selections in that race, # 5 What's Bruin (4.90), # 12 Unchained Melody (GB) (2.70*), and # 9 Token Vow (3.60), finished in the bottom three slots of chart, crossing under the wire 10th, 9th, and 8th, respectively. Perhaps the randomness of the day was best epitomized by Trainer Bob Baffert, for the first time since anyone can remember, getting home a thirty dollar winner; and that thirty dollar winner not even being the highest priced winner in the sequence.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 7 / 4 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $7,910.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 7 Trojan Time (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Angels Flight - # 4 Emboldened (14.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Katherine (19.70) - "C" Selection
Troubled trips were at least partially to blame for the failure of my "A" Selections to make it home in the first and third legs Saturday; as # 1 Show It N Moe It (5.10) had to steady midway on the backstretch in the Angels Flight; while # 4 Conquest Typhoon (2.00*) was steadied not once, not twice, but three separate times while taking the Show in the opening stanza.
But as I feared while making my selections, the final leg was a contest destined for chaos, as my three "A" Selections in that race, # 5 What's Bruin (4.90), # 12 Unchained Melody (GB) (2.70*), and # 9 Token Vow (3.60), finished in the bottom three slots of chart, crossing under the wire 10th, 9th, and 8th, respectively. Perhaps the randomness of the day was best epitomized by Trainer Bob Baffert, for the first time since anyone can remember, getting home a thirty dollar winner; and that thirty dollar winner not even being the highest priced winner in the sequence.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 7 / 4 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $7,910.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/12/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the catch your breath Saturday between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and so we turn our full attention back to Santa Anita. The featured race in Arcadia today is the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera, which, unfortunately, did not find its way into the final four races on the card. However, we do get a Listed Stakes in the form of the Angels Flight; a contest which I'll be looking at below as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Conquest Typhoon (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Hawks Peak (ML 10-1)
# 6 Lucky Bryan (ML 4-1)
# 8 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 7-2)
Conquest Typhoon goes second off the layoff; Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with such. Ronald R (Ire), a victor upstate last time out, fits well here on class.
Hawks Peak is out of a Giant's Causeway mare, and therefore should do well with the move to the lawn. Lucky Bryan may still need a race after the extended layoff; but Lucky Bryan can certainly win at this class level. Ya Gotta Wanna has shown steady improvement in each of his three turf starts.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Trojan Time (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Awesome E K (ML 3-1)
# 8 Downside Up (ML 2-1)
# 9 Lion Command (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Trojan Time took the Show against more expensive stock last time out. Awesome E K was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out. Downside Up may be best here; but Downside Up seems to settle for too many minor awards. Lion Command has taken the Show each of the two prior times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track.
RACE 8 - (F) The Angels Flight $75k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Show It N Moe It (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Moonshine Memories (ML 5-2)
# 6 Uppercut (ML 7-2)
# 9 Thirteen Squared (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Embolden (ML 8-1)
# 7 Highland Lass (ML 12-1)
# 8 True Royalty (ML 8-1)
Show It N Moe It, the most experienced runner in this field of three year old fillies, misses by just a neck at being a perfect three-for-three for 2018. Moonshine Memories is making her three year old debut here, and if she is ready to run off the layoff she could certainly get her picture taken today.
Uppercut, Show runner in the Beaumont last time out, could move up with the return to her home track. Thirteen Squared should benefit from not having to compete against Midnight Bisou again; though it's unclear if the return to one turn racing will help or hurt Thirteen Squared.
Embolden, well beaten by Show It N Moe It last time out, could move up off the freshening. Highland Lass and True Royalty were just a neck apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta last time out, and both look like they will be able to handle the extra half furlong distance.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 What's Bruin (ML 3-1)
# 9 Token Vow (ML 4-1)
# 12 Unchaining Melody (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Star Kissed (ML 20-1)
# 2 Camino Song (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Don't Blame Judy (ML 8-1)
# 7 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 8 Thalia (ML 15-1)
# 10 Katherine (ML 12-1)
# 11 Love of Art (Ire) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Lucky Outcome (ML 15-1) and # 6 Baladera (ML 20-1)
What's Bruin took the Place at this class level on the main track last time out. What's Bruin's breeding suggests that she will handle the surface switch well. Token Vow took the Show at this class level while charging down the Santa Anita hill in her debut last time out. Unchaining Melody (GB) closed well in her first try down the hill last time out.
Star Kissed and Katherine are on the ticket because everyone else is. Camino Song (Ire), one of three here trained by Phil D'Amato, could move up off the layoff. Don't Blame Judy, Journal Entry, Thalia, and Love of Art (Ire) are a quartet of first time starters that could be ready at first asking in a field that doesn't appear to have a true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,2,6,9 with 5,9,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 4,7,8 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 1,2,4,7,8,10,11 $3.50
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Conquest Typhoon (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Hawks Peak (ML 10-1)
# 6 Lucky Bryan (ML 4-1)
# 8 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 7-2)
Conquest Typhoon goes second off the layoff; Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with such. Ronald R (Ire), a victor upstate last time out, fits well here on class.
Hawks Peak is out of a Giant's Causeway mare, and therefore should do well with the move to the lawn. Lucky Bryan may still need a race after the extended layoff; but Lucky Bryan can certainly win at this class level. Ya Gotta Wanna has shown steady improvement in each of his three turf starts.
RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Trojan Time (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Awesome E K (ML 3-1)
# 8 Downside Up (ML 2-1)
# 9 Lion Command (ML 4-1)
None
Trojan Time took the Show against more expensive stock last time out. Awesome E K was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out. Downside Up may be best here; but Downside Up seems to settle for too many minor awards. Lion Command has taken the Show each of the two prior times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track.
RACE 8 - (F) The Angels Flight $75k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Show It N Moe It (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Moonshine Memories (ML 5-2)
# 6 Uppercut (ML 7-2)
# 9 Thirteen Squared (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Embolden (ML 8-1)
# 7 Highland Lass (ML 12-1)
# 8 True Royalty (ML 8-1)
Show It N Moe It, the most experienced runner in this field of three year old fillies, misses by just a neck at being a perfect three-for-three for 2018. Moonshine Memories is making her three year old debut here, and if she is ready to run off the layoff she could certainly get her picture taken today.
Uppercut, Show runner in the Beaumont last time out, could move up with the return to her home track. Thirteen Squared should benefit from not having to compete against Midnight Bisou again; though it's unclear if the return to one turn racing will help or hurt Thirteen Squared.
Embolden, well beaten by Show It N Moe It last time out, could move up off the freshening. Highland Lass and True Royalty were just a neck apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta last time out, and both look like they will be able to handle the extra half furlong distance.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 What's Bruin (ML 3-1)
# 9 Token Vow (ML 4-1)
# 12 Unchaining Melody (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Star Kissed (ML 20-1)
# 2 Camino Song (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Don't Blame Judy (ML 8-1)
# 7 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 8 Thalia (ML 15-1)
# 10 Katherine (ML 12-1)
# 11 Love of Art (Ire) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Lucky Outcome (ML 15-1) and # 6 Baladera (ML 20-1)
What's Bruin took the Place at this class level on the main track last time out. What's Bruin's breeding suggests that she will handle the surface switch well. Token Vow took the Show at this class level while charging down the Santa Anita hill in her debut last time out. Unchaining Melody (GB) closed well in her first try down the hill last time out.
Star Kissed and Katherine are on the ticket because everyone else is. Camino Song (Ire), one of three here trained by Phil D'Amato, could move up off the layoff. Don't Blame Judy, Journal Entry, Thalia, and Love of Art (Ire) are a quartet of first time starters that could be ready at first asking in a field that doesn't appear to have a true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,2,6,9 with 5,9,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 4,7,8 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 1,2,4,7,8,10,11 $3.50
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 6, 2018
5/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Operandi (Final Odds 4.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Adoration - # 7 Fault (0.60*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Achira (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Surfside Sunset (2.00) - "A" Selection
My main ticket single, # 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (1.70), just didn't have it Sunday, and finished well back of Fault in the Adoration. However, despite that setback I still could have collected had my "A" Selection in the opening leg, # 8 Paprika (1.00*), not been a neck too slow in getting to the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 7 / 1 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $64.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Adoration - # 7 Fault (0.60*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Achira (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Surfside Sunset (2.00) - "A" Selection
My main ticket single, # 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (1.70), just didn't have it Sunday, and finished well back of Fault in the Adoration. However, despite that setback I still could have collected had my "A" Selection in the opening leg, # 8 Paprika (1.00*), not been a neck too slow in getting to the wire.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 7 / 1 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $64.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Back to handicapping sunny Southern California, where the track is Fast and the turf is Firm. The featured race on the Sunday card in Arcadia is the Grade 3 Adoration, a contest for fillies and mares to be competed over the main track. I'll be looking at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Paprika (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Charmingslew (ML 7-2)
# 3 Venue (ML 3-1)
# 7 Whata Flirt (ML 15-1)
# 9 Operandi (ML 10-1)
C's
RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Paprika (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Charmingslew (ML 7-2)
# 3 Venue (ML 3-1)
# 7 Whata Flirt (ML 15-1)
# 9 Operandi (ML 10-1)
C's
# 6 Sea Sensation (ML 8-1)
Paprika took the Place while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out. Charmingslew could improve off the freshening. Venue is a first time starter who has been working well over the main track.
Whata Flirt tries turf for the first time; since her dam has already produced two grass winners, it's fair to presume that Whata Flirt will do well with the surface switch. Operandi could move up with a return to the hill. Sea Sensation closed well last time out in her debut on the synthetic main track upstate.
RACE 7 - (F) The Adoration (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Fault (ML 6-5)
Scratch #1 Dalsaros (ML 20-1)
Fault, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Margarita last time out, has done nothing wrong in her two prior 2018 starts, and appears to be in top condition. But in my opinion Vale Dori (Arg), the defending champ of this event, is clearly better, and Vale Dori's works over this main track in April suggest that she's ready to run. So Vale Dori gets the "A" spot, Fault gets relegated to the backup "C" spot, and, well, we'll see how that works out.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Achira (ML 9-5)
# 4 Speakers (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Battleground State (ML 15-1)
# 3 Spy Ring (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Spy Ring (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Helen Hillary (ML 8-1)
# 8 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Achira has missed victory by just a neck in each of her last two starts at this class level. Speakers is the only last out winner in this field. Siberian Iris (Ire) has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last three starts.
Battleground State could move up with the cutback in distance. Spy Ring (Ire) is getting some much needed class relief. Helen Hillary is making her 2018 debut for Trainer Phil D'amato, who tends to do well with runners returning from an extended vacation.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Jerry's Thunder (ML 5-1)
# 7 Surfside Sunset (ML 5-2)
# 9 Vegas Itch (ML 2-1)
# 9 Vegas Itch (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Duke of Fallbrook (ML 8-1)
# 5 Hidden Crook (ML 15-1)
# 5 Hidden Crook (ML 15-1)
C's
# 6 Siege of Vicksburg (ML 15-1)
# 8 Red Obsession (ML 8-1)
Jerry's Thunder could improve with the increase in real estate. Surfside Sunset is being priced to sell, and should move up with the drop in class. Vegas Itch has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Duke of Fallbook took the Show behind a next out winner at this class level last time out. Hidden Crook broke well in his debut last time out.
Siege of Vicksburg could move up with the class drop and surface switch. Red Obsession could move up while covering more ground.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7,8,9 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2,3,5,7,9 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,4 with 6,8 $2.00
Total: $89.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:16 EDT / 3:16 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 5, 2018
2018 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up
Just a (relatively) brief observation from examining the chart of the Kentucky Derby: Justify ran very well against the in-race pace bias; the pace shape of the race, if you will.
Notice that Justify was right up on or near the pace throughout the running of the race. Justify was never further back than second, never more than half a length off the lead, at any of the points of call from out of the gate.
Now compare that to the other runners that were on or close to the lead early. Or even to those that were just in the front half of the field. Here are the runners who were first through tenth (the front half of the twenty horse field) at the 3/4 (six furlong) mark, with their final position:
1 - Promises Fulfilled - 15
2 - Justify - 1
3 - Bolt d’Oro - 12
4 - Flameaway - 13
5 - Good Magic - 2
6 - Firenze Fire - 11
7 - Noble Indy - 17
8 - Free Drop Billy - 16
9 - Mendelssohn - 20
10 - Lone Sailor - 8
So of the horses that were in the front half of the field at the six furlong mark, only Justify, Good Magic, and Lone Sailor were still in the front half of the field at the wire. Or, looking at the data another way, the top ten finishers in the Kentucky Derby at the six furlong mark were (in order):
2nd / 5th / 12th / 17th / 20th / 11th / 15th / 10th / 18th / 19th
In a race where the leaders were fading and the back half of the field was closing, Justify was right up in front early and stayed right up in front right to the end; not backing up; not getting caught.
A very fine effort indeed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Notice that Justify was right up on or near the pace throughout the running of the race. Justify was never further back than second, never more than half a length off the lead, at any of the points of call from out of the gate.
Now compare that to the other runners that were on or close to the lead early. Or even to those that were just in the front half of the field. Here are the runners who were first through tenth (the front half of the twenty horse field) at the 3/4 (six furlong) mark, with their final position:
1 - Promises Fulfilled - 15
2 - Justify - 1
3 - Bolt d’Oro - 12
4 - Flameaway - 13
5 - Good Magic - 2
6 - Firenze Fire - 11
7 - Noble Indy - 17
8 - Free Drop Billy - 16
9 - Mendelssohn - 20
10 - Lone Sailor - 8
So of the horses that were in the front half of the field at the six furlong mark, only Justify, Good Magic, and Lone Sailor were still in the front half of the field at the wire. Or, looking at the data another way, the top ten finishers in the Kentucky Derby at the six furlong mark were (in order):
2nd / 5th / 12th / 17th / 20th / 11th / 15th / 10th / 18th / 19th
In a race where the leaders were fading and the back half of the field was closing, Justify was right up in front early and stayed right up in front right to the end; not backing up; not getting caught.
A very fine effort indeed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/5/18 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The American Turf - # 10 Maraud (Final Odds 8.40) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Pat Day Mile - # 4 Funny Duck (39.70) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 9 Yoshida (Jpn) (9.90) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 7 Justify (2.90*) - "A" Selection
My play started well and ended well, with "A" Selections on both ends. But as was the case last year, # 10 Beach Patrol (1.60*) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the Turf Classic, taking the Place less than a length behind the winner. Which was probably just as well as far as my play was concerned, because there was no way I was finding the winner of the Pat Day Mile, the aptly named (for the weather) Funny Duck, nor the Place finisher in that contest, # 3 New York Central (31.50), without hitting the "ALL" button.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Congrats to Justify, a magnificent runner, as well as to Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey Mike Smith, and Owners China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing, and Winstar Farms.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of 10 / 4 / 9 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $69,885.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Pat Day Mile - # 4 Funny Duck (39.70) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 9 Yoshida (Jpn) (9.90) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 7 Justify (2.90*) - "A" Selection
My play started well and ended well, with "A" Selections on both ends. But as was the case last year, # 10 Beach Patrol (1.60*) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the Turf Classic, taking the Place less than a length behind the winner. Which was probably just as well as far as my play was concerned, because there was no way I was finding the winner of the Pat Day Mile, the aptly named (for the weather) Funny Duck, nor the Place finisher in that contest, # 3 New York Central (31.50), without hitting the "ALL" button.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Congrats to Justify, a magnificent runner, as well as to Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey Mike Smith, and Owners China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing, and Winstar Farms.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of 10 / 4 / 9 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $69,885.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/5/18 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview
The first Saturday in May has arrived, the culmination of all those winter and early spring prep races designed to determine who is the best three year old horse in the land. It's undoubtedly the biggest day of the year in North American horse racing, as even those who have to stop and think about how many legs your average equine runner has will be turning their attention to this contest. So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Speed Franco (Morning Line 6-1)
# 10 Maraud (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Inscom (ML 15-1)
# 3 Threeandfourpence (ML 4-1)
# 6 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 8 Arawak (ML 20-1)
# 11 Untamed Domain (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 12 Rushing Fall (ML 5-1), Place finisher in yesterday's Edgewood. Also Scratch # 15 Alternative Route (ML 30-1) from the Also Eligible list; but bring in # 16 Tiz Mischief (30-1).
Maraud and Speed Franco filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Palm Beach back in March, and it would not surprise were they to do the same today. River Boyne (Ire) and Inscom filled out the Exacta in the Pasadena last time out for both runners. Threeandfourpence should appreciate the return to the turf.
Arawak removes the hood and gets back on the lawn; both moves should help. Untamed Domain is another that looks to improve with the return to grass.
RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Mask (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 National Flag (ML 4-1)
# 5 Mississippi (ML 10-1)
# 7 Madison's Luna (ML 5-1)
C's
# 10 Seahenge (ML 15-1)
# 11 Sporting Chance (ML 8-1)
# 12 Restoring Hope (ML 9-2)
Mask took a nice step forward while winning the Mucho Macho Man last time out, and has been doing well with his starts spaced out. National Flag was very much the best in the Grade 3 Bay Shore last time out. Mississippi should benefit greatly from the cutback in distance, and has shown good tactical speed in the past. Madison's Luna undefeated in two tries, should hold his form with the added distance.
Seahenge is a wildcard that could be running well late. Sporting Chance should benefit from the reduced real estate, though it is a concern that Sporting Chance doesn't seem to have moved forward from his Hopeful victory last Fall. Restoring Hope is another here that should benefit from cutting back in distance.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Beach Patrol (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Deauville (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Maker (ML 10-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 5-1)
If Beach Patrol is ready to run off the layoff (and runners for Trainer Chad Brown typically are ready to run off a long layoff) then this is a very easy race, as Beach Patrol is very much the best in this field. However, if Beach Patrol is not ready to run off the layoff, then this is a very complicated race, as there are quite a few runners in here who do quite well at the lower class levels, but have not yet shown that they can consistently compete at the Grade 1 level. So here's hoping that when all is said and done this turns out to have been a very easy race.
Deauville (Ire) took the Show behind Beach Patrol last Fall in the Arlington Million. Kurilov (Chi) missed the Winner's Circle by just a neck last time out in his first try over North American turf. Channel Maker has run well each of the last two times that Javier Castellano was on his back. Synchrony could be the one running best late.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Audible (ML 8-1)
# 7 Justify (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 8-1)
B's
# 6 Good Magic (ML 12-1)
# 14 Mendelssohn (ML 5-1)
# 16 Magnum Moon (ML 6-1)
# 17 Solomini (ML 30-1)
C's
# 1 Firenze Fire (ML 50-1)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (ML 30-1)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (ML 30-1)
# 4 Flameaway (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lone Sailor (ML 50-1)
# 9 Hofburg (ML 20-1)
# 10 My Boy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 12 Enticed (ML 30-1)
# 13 Bravazo (ML 50-1)
# 15 Instilled Regard (ML 50-1)
# 18 Vino Rosso (ML 12-1)
# 19 Noble Indy (ML 30-1)
# 20 Combatant (ML 50-1)
Scratch # 21 Blended Citizen, who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Audible has done nothing but improve in each of his five career starts, culminating in his win in the Florida Derby. Justify may do to this Kentucky Derby field with Bob Baffert trainees have done to the Travers fields each of the past two years; but I suspect that, like Curlin during his Triple Crown season, Justify is a great horse that is not quite there yet. Bolt d'Oro just might prove today that he has been the best all along.
Good Magic looked solid while winning the Blue Grass. Mendelssohn was unquestionably the best last time out in his first try on dirt. Magnum Moon didn't look pretty drifting out while winning the Arkansas Derby, but he should overcome that today. Solomini is the "other" Baffert; and I remind you that 1998 Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet was the "other" Baffert, as the Baffert trained Indian Charlie was the Post Time Favorite in that contest.
The "C" Selections are everyone else. If The Almighty should allow me to enter this final leg holding three Aces, I want to be sure that I collect.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10 with 1,5,7,8 with 10 with 5,6,7,11,14,16,17 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 10,11,12 with 10 with 5,7,11 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 1,3,5,7 with 5,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,12,13,15,18,19,20 $13.00
Total: $113.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Speed Franco (Morning Line 6-1)
# 10 Maraud (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Inscom (ML 15-1)
# 3 Threeandfourpence (ML 4-1)
# 6 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 8 Arawak (ML 20-1)
# 11 Untamed Domain (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 12 Rushing Fall (ML 5-1), Place finisher in yesterday's Edgewood. Also Scratch # 15 Alternative Route (ML 30-1) from the Also Eligible list; but bring in # 16 Tiz Mischief (30-1).
Maraud and Speed Franco filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Palm Beach back in March, and it would not surprise were they to do the same today. River Boyne (Ire) and Inscom filled out the Exacta in the Pasadena last time out for both runners. Threeandfourpence should appreciate the return to the turf.
Arawak removes the hood and gets back on the lawn; both moves should help. Untamed Domain is another that looks to improve with the return to grass.
RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Mask (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 National Flag (ML 4-1)
# 5 Mississippi (ML 10-1)
# 7 Madison's Luna (ML 5-1)
C's
# 10 Seahenge (ML 15-1)
# 11 Sporting Chance (ML 8-1)
# 12 Restoring Hope (ML 9-2)
Mask took a nice step forward while winning the Mucho Macho Man last time out, and has been doing well with his starts spaced out. National Flag was very much the best in the Grade 3 Bay Shore last time out. Mississippi should benefit greatly from the cutback in distance, and has shown good tactical speed in the past. Madison's Luna undefeated in two tries, should hold his form with the added distance.
Seahenge is a wildcard that could be running well late. Sporting Chance should benefit from the reduced real estate, though it is a concern that Sporting Chance doesn't seem to have moved forward from his Hopeful victory last Fall. Restoring Hope is another here that should benefit from cutting back in distance.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Beach Patrol (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Deauville (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Maker (ML 10-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 5-1)
If Beach Patrol is ready to run off the layoff (and runners for Trainer Chad Brown typically are ready to run off a long layoff) then this is a very easy race, as Beach Patrol is very much the best in this field. However, if Beach Patrol is not ready to run off the layoff, then this is a very complicated race, as there are quite a few runners in here who do quite well at the lower class levels, but have not yet shown that they can consistently compete at the Grade 1 level. So here's hoping that when all is said and done this turns out to have been a very easy race.
Deauville (Ire) took the Show behind Beach Patrol last Fall in the Arlington Million. Kurilov (Chi) missed the Winner's Circle by just a neck last time out in his first try over North American turf. Channel Maker has run well each of the last two times that Javier Castellano was on his back. Synchrony could be the one running best late.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Audible (ML 8-1)
# 7 Justify (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 8-1)
B's
# 6 Good Magic (ML 12-1)
# 14 Mendelssohn (ML 5-1)
# 16 Magnum Moon (ML 6-1)
# 17 Solomini (ML 30-1)
C's
# 1 Firenze Fire (ML 50-1)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (ML 30-1)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (ML 30-1)
# 4 Flameaway (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lone Sailor (ML 50-1)
# 9 Hofburg (ML 20-1)
# 10 My Boy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 12 Enticed (ML 30-1)
# 13 Bravazo (ML 50-1)
# 15 Instilled Regard (ML 50-1)
# 18 Vino Rosso (ML 12-1)
# 19 Noble Indy (ML 30-1)
# 20 Combatant (ML 50-1)
Scratch # 21 Blended Citizen, who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Audible has done nothing but improve in each of his five career starts, culminating in his win in the Florida Derby. Justify may do to this Kentucky Derby field with Bob Baffert trainees have done to the Travers fields each of the past two years; but I suspect that, like Curlin during his Triple Crown season, Justify is a great horse that is not quite there yet. Bolt d'Oro just might prove today that he has been the best all along.
Good Magic looked solid while winning the Blue Grass. Mendelssohn was unquestionably the best last time out in his first try on dirt. Magnum Moon didn't look pretty drifting out while winning the Arkansas Derby, but he should overcome that today. Solomini is the "other" Baffert; and I remind you that 1998 Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet was the "other" Baffert, as the Baffert trained Indian Charlie was the Post Time Favorite in that contest.
The "C" Selections are everyone else. If The Almighty should allow me to enter this final leg holding three Aces, I want to be sure that I collect.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10 with 1,5,7,8 with 10 with 5,6,7,11,14,16,17 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 10,11,12 with 10 with 5,7,11 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 1,3,5,7 with 5,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,12,13,15,18,19,20 $13.00
Total: $113.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)