Race 1 - # 6 She's Flush (Final Odds 53.30) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 5 Tigah (GB) (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Thermal Nermal (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 4 Tara's Tango (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The Eddie Read - # 6 Tom's Tribute (2.30) - "B" Selection
Our "A" Selection in the first race, # 1 L T Reckless (0.90*), had the lead by over a length at the half, but then apparently injured himself and finished next to last. I presume that L T Reckless faded due to injury because his claim by Trainer Peter Miller was voided due to unsoundness, and he was returned back to the Diodoro barn. Our "B" Selection, # 2 When I'm Calling U (3.10) got the Place, just a half length behind the winner; though she did have to move a rival out of her way to do it (the stewards reviewed, but left the finish unchanged).
We spread wide in Race 4 looking for a price; perhaps foolishly so in retrospect, as Tara's Tango (with Mike Smith aboard) was an easy winner, setting a new track record in the process (EDIT - a very short-lived record, as it turns out, as Luminance breaks the record in Race 8). Race 5 saw Tom's Tribute earn his first Graded Stakes victory. Tom's Tribute is now five-out-of-six with Mike Smith as his rider; oh-for-six with all others on his back.
Returning to the opener, it was Deja Vu all over again as, just as on Thursday's Opening Day, we got knocked out in the first leg by a horse we could have only had by hitting the "ALL" button. She's Flush going into today's event had been oh-for-nine on synthetic surfaces, including oh-for-three on the Del Mar main track. In her twenty career starts prior to today, She's Flush had just one victory. Of course, there's no way to know for certain what the result would have been had L T Reckless not been injured during the running of the race; but we do know for certain what the result actually was, and it was us holding a pair of Pick Five tickets with only four winners on each.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 6 / 5 / 4 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $13,513.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, July 20, 2014
7/20/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Preview
Switching things up a bit today and taking a shot early instead of late; so with that, here are a few thoughts and selections for today's Pick Five at Del Mar.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 L T Reckless (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 2 When I'm Calling U (ML 7-2)
C's
# 7 Yodel Up a Storm (ML 5-1)
Yes, that's right; I'm using "B's" as well as the usual "A's" and "C's". Part of that is an attempt to fine tune my thinking on how I see these events, while another (perhaps larger) part of that is an attempt to just shake things up a bit to see if it improves results.
L T Reckless is a winner of four of her last five races, the last two victories coming against more expensive stock than what she will be facing today. Concerns are that she has just one Show finish in her two prior tries on a synthetic surface, and she finished out of the money in her only prior race over this main track.
When I'm Calling U ships in from Northern California with a career record of nine in the money finishes in ten prior races on synthetic surfaces. If the track is playing fair today, then the anticipated early speed battle up front should set up nicely for When I'm Calling U. Yodel Up a Storm is the only entrant in the field with a Win over this main track.
RACE 2 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tigah (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Mr T Bird (ML 8-1)
C's
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 L T Reckless (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 2 When I'm Calling U (ML 7-2)
C's
# 7 Yodel Up a Storm (ML 5-1)
Yes, that's right; I'm using "B's" as well as the usual "A's" and "C's". Part of that is an attempt to fine tune my thinking on how I see these events, while another (perhaps larger) part of that is an attempt to just shake things up a bit to see if it improves results.
L T Reckless is a winner of four of her last five races, the last two victories coming against more expensive stock than what she will be facing today. Concerns are that she has just one Show finish in her two prior tries on a synthetic surface, and she finished out of the money in her only prior race over this main track.
When I'm Calling U ships in from Northern California with a career record of nine in the money finishes in ten prior races on synthetic surfaces. If the track is playing fair today, then the anticipated early speed battle up front should set up nicely for When I'm Calling U. Yodel Up a Storm is the only entrant in the field with a Win over this main track.
RACE 2 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tigah (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Mr T Bird (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Would You (ML 12-1)
Zimmer won at this level his last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita. Zimmer also was a winner in his only prior try on the Del Mar turf.
Tigah (GB) drops in for the lowest tag of his career. As Tigah has just one win in the previous twenty-nine months, it's fair to presume that Trainer John Sadler is just looking to get this horse into the Winner's Circle.
Mr T Bird is another dropping to the lowest selling price of his career. Mr. T Bird has won off the bench in the past, and the six furlong bullet work at Santa Anita suggests that he's in racing shape.
Would You gave a career best performance last time out, and it put him on the shelf for six months. But Would You has shown the ability to run well off the bench in the past, and there's no arguing with Trainer Phillip D'Amato's record with those coming back from an extended layoff, as well with winners last time out looking to repeat.
RACE 3 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 7-2)
# 9 Itz a Saint (ML 5-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Magic Number (ML 10-1)
Thermal Nermal has shown herself to be competitive at higher levels on both dirt and turf, so hopefully the form will hold in her first try on a synthetic surface.
Itz a Saint travels in from upstate with a record of three wins in eight tries on a synthetic surface. Itz a Saint took the Place her last time out against more expensive stock, and has finished in the money in all seven prior contests at today's distance.
Magic Number has won two of her four career starts on a synthetic surface, and took the Show while routing against more expensive stock two starts back.
RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
# 4 Tara's Tango (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Southern Lady (ML 10-1)
# 8 Diva Express (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 6 Daddy's Duo (ML 9-2)
# 9 Windy Forecast (ML 7-2) and #10 Queen of Kings (ML 8-1) have been scratched.
Maybellene is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia; Tara's Tango is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith. If you follow Southern California racing, that's pretty much all you need to know as to why those two horses are "A" contenders. Baffert has a .23 Winning Percentage with first time starters, a .26 Winning Percentage with two year olds, and a .30 Winning Percentage when giving Martin Garcia the leg up at Del Mar over the past two years. Hollendorfer has a .32 Winning Percentage with first time starters, a .25 Winning Percentage with two year olds, and a .27 overall Winning Percentage over the past two years when Mike Smith rides one of his horses.
Southern Lady is by Yes It's True, whose offspring tend to be precocious. Trainer Cody Aubrey has down extremely well with both first time starters and with juveniles, albeit in small sample sizes.
Diva Express was purchased at auction this past March for $260k. Diva Express has shown a couple of bullet works over the past six weeks, including one from the gate over this main track.
Daddy's Duo, trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, took the Place at this level over the synthetic surface at Arlington Park in her debut. Daddy's Duo is the only experienced runner in today's field.
RACE 5 - The Eddie Read (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Summer Front (ML 8-5)
B's
# 6 Tom's Tribute (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Horizontalyspeakin (ML 3-1)
Summer Front won the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale at Gulfstream Park back in January, and took the Place in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile his last time out.
Tom's Tribute finished a half length back of Summer Front last time out in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Tom's Tribute has yet to find the Winner's Circle in a Graded Stakes, but he has shown the ability to compete at this level, and this is not the strongest of Grade 1 fields. Jockey Mike Smith, who was on Tom's Tribute back for each of his four prior career wins, gets the mount again today.
Horizontally Speaking is the only horse in this field with a victory on the Del Mar turf. Horizontally Speaking should be forwardly placed today.
Unbridled Command won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby back in November 2012; and has had only two starts since. Unbridled Command showed absolutely nothing in his prep race last month. If he's in top shape he's a contender; but there's little to justify believing that he's in top shape, and since this is the final leg of the play we can't look at the tote board to see what kind of action he's getting. So if Unbridled Command wins today, he beats me.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $12.00
A's with One B
$1.00 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $8.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $8.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $8.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P5: 2 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 6 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 7 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 6 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 6 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 4 $4.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, July 18, 2014
7/18/14 Monmouth Park Early Pick Four - Results
Race 3 - # 1 Groovy Dancer (Final Odds 1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 4 Dodging (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Gypsy Baron (5.80) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Happy Easter (5.20) - No Selection
For the second time in less than a week we have lost a Pick Four in the final leg when the odds-on favorite on our ticket lost a photo finish. Today it was # 5 Killington (0.70*) who couldn't hold on at the wire and lost the head bob. I can't tell you for certain what the Will Pay would have been had Killington held on to win, as it was given as $177.05 for fifty cents prior to the gate scratch of # 3 Elissa Town; which meant that everyone who was alive to Elissa Town in the last leg was given Killington in her place. Of course, if no one was alive to Elissa Town in the Pick Four, then the $177.05 would have remained the payout.
For the record, we were also alive to # 6 My Princess Diana (2.60) in the final leg; had she won the Pick Four would have paid $487.40 for fifty cents. But that's just what might have been.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Early Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,035.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 4 - # 4 Dodging (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Gypsy Baron (5.80) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Happy Easter (5.20) - No Selection
For the second time in less than a week we have lost a Pick Four in the final leg when the odds-on favorite on our ticket lost a photo finish. Today it was # 5 Killington (0.70*) who couldn't hold on at the wire and lost the head bob. I can't tell you for certain what the Will Pay would have been had Killington held on to win, as it was given as $177.05 for fifty cents prior to the gate scratch of # 3 Elissa Town; which meant that everyone who was alive to Elissa Town in the last leg was given Killington in her place. Of course, if no one was alive to Elissa Town in the Pick Four, then the $177.05 would have remained the payout.
For the record, we were also alive to # 6 My Princess Diana (2.60) in the final leg; had she won the Pick Four would have paid $487.40 for fifty cents. But that's just what might have been.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Early Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,035.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/18/14 Monmouth Park Early Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Day at Saratoga; Del Mar has a six figure Pick Six carryover; but for me, I'm going after the Pick Four carryover at Monmouth Park today, because those are just too rare to let one go by. So let's get to it:
RACE 3 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Groovy Dancer (Morning Line 6-1)
# 3 Daddy's Boo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Knoxy (Morning Line 3-2)
C’s
# 2 Shewreckstheplace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Circle of Rossetti (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
Quite frankly, this contest strikes me as a wide open affair; not because I see the field as especially contentious, but because, even for this level of maidens, there seems to be a dearth of desire to win.
Groovy Dancer could be the inside speed on the rail here; but she'll be losing the blinkers today, which may stunt her early speed. Groovy Dancer also faded against state-bred competition her last time out, and her works after that race suggest that she may not be in top shape.
Daddy's Boo is a first time starter. Having a horse make its debut in a claiming event could be a red flag, but since she's a home bred from a sire with a $5k fee, she could be well meant in this spot; especially since there isn't a lot of competition among the experienced runners. Also note the one mile work just four days ago; it's safe to presume that Daddy's Boo is in shape. However, it's also worth noting that she has a full brother (He's Precocious) who's a year older than her and hasn't yet made it to the starting gate; though he did work three furlongs at Fairplex this past Monday.
Knoxy appears to be the most talented in the field, and she has finished in the money twice at this level. But the only time that she's ever had the lead in her career was when competing against turf horses in a race that was taken off the grass; so, even at this level, it's hard to generate a lot of confidence in her direction.
Shewreckstheplace is oh-for-twenty-seven, and I don't know of any handicapper that shows a profitable ROI playing the "The twenty-eighth time's the charm" angle. On the other hand, she's only had three prior tries on a fast dirt track, and all of those were at Aqueduct; so maybe she'll improve if her connections will just keep her off the grass.
RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Class Bopper (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sky Masterson (ML 3-1)
# 4 Dodging (ML 7-2)
# 7 Folk Singer (ML 5-2)
C's
None
RACE 3 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Groovy Dancer (Morning Line 6-1)
# 3 Daddy's Boo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Knoxy (Morning Line 3-2)
C’s
# 2 Shewreckstheplace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Circle of Rossetti (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
Quite frankly, this contest strikes me as a wide open affair; not because I see the field as especially contentious, but because, even for this level of maidens, there seems to be a dearth of desire to win.
Groovy Dancer could be the inside speed on the rail here; but she'll be losing the blinkers today, which may stunt her early speed. Groovy Dancer also faded against state-bred competition her last time out, and her works after that race suggest that she may not be in top shape.
Daddy's Boo is a first time starter. Having a horse make its debut in a claiming event could be a red flag, but since she's a home bred from a sire with a $5k fee, she could be well meant in this spot; especially since there isn't a lot of competition among the experienced runners. Also note the one mile work just four days ago; it's safe to presume that Daddy's Boo is in shape. However, it's also worth noting that she has a full brother (He's Precocious) who's a year older than her and hasn't yet made it to the starting gate; though he did work three furlongs at Fairplex this past Monday.
Knoxy appears to be the most talented in the field, and she has finished in the money twice at this level. But the only time that she's ever had the lead in her career was when competing against turf horses in a race that was taken off the grass; so, even at this level, it's hard to generate a lot of confidence in her direction.
Shewreckstheplace is oh-for-twenty-seven, and I don't know of any handicapper that shows a profitable ROI playing the "The twenty-eighth time's the charm" angle. On the other hand, she's only had three prior tries on a fast dirt track, and all of those were at Aqueduct; so maybe she'll improve if her connections will just keep her off the grass.
RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Class Bopper (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sky Masterson (ML 3-1)
# 4 Dodging (ML 7-2)
# 7 Folk Singer (ML 5-2)
C's
None
The "B" conditions for the event are that it's restricted to horses which have not won a race since October 18, 2013 OR horses which have not won four races (excluding races where the horse was entered for $5k or less). I'm going to presume that jump races (or hurdles, if you prefer) are also excluded, else otherwise Class Bopper, who appears to be a class standout here, would not qualify.
Folk Singer and Sky Masterson exit the same contest earlier this month where they took the Place and the Show, respectively. While the $12.5k price tag in that event was lower than today's selling price, that race was unrestricted, so I feel that this is at worst a lateral move for these two on the class ladder.
Dodging comes back from an extended vacation, having last raced eight months ago; however, Trainer Hugh McMahon wins his fair share (approximately 18%) with such. Also note the timing of Dodging's last win, which came on October 9, 2013; just a little more than a week before the deadline.
RACE 5 - OC 12k/SAL 6k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Indefinable Humor (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 3 Gypsy Baron (ML 5-1)
# 8 Small Giant (ML 5-1)
Indefinable Humor has been in the Exacta in all four of his prior races on this main track. Indefinable Humor defeated open claimers his last time out, and now makes his first start for Trainer Hugh McMahon.
Gypsy Barron gets some class relief after showing early speed against more expensive stock. I would not be surprised to see him change barns after this race is over. Small Giant has been running with the pace setters in his most recent races; but his past performances show an ability to win from off the pace, an ability that could prove to be quite useful here.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $35k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Killington (ML 8-5)
# 6 My Princess Diana (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 8 When We Act (ML 10-1)
Killington drops in for a tag for the first time in her career after finishing in the money in three of her five career starts against non-claiming maidens. My Princess Diana has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures throughout her career, and was within two lengths of the winner at this class level her last time out. When We Act took the Show at this level down at Gulfstream Park back in February.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 3,8 with 5,6 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 8 $6.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 3 is 1:50 EDT / 10:50 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, July 17, 2014
7/17/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 1 Know Plans (Final Odds 25.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Oceanside - # 9 Enterprising (2.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Passing Game (30.40) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Affrettando (4.30) - "A" Selection
You could say that a Win by Post Time Favorite Enterprising suggests that the Oceanside wasn't as wide open as we had thought. But I think the fact that Enterprising had to go from last to first and then run the final furlong in 10.84 seconds (using the simplified calculation of taking the time of the quarter of 11.79 and then subtracting 1/5 of a second for each length that Enterprising gained on the leader; something that I failed to do earlier, and thus requiring this edit) to win by just a neck over # 1 Argyle Cut (4.50) is evidence that this was indeed a very competitive event.
Passing Game was certainly deserving of more attention than we gave him, considering that he was one-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar main track going into today's race, along with being three-for-six for his career on all synthetic surfaces. But the only way we would have had Know Plans on our tickets would have been to hit the "ALL" button for that leg. In his eight career starts prior to today, Know Plans's position at first call was 10th / 8th / 10th / 10th / 6th / 5th / 9th / 6th; yet today he led the field from gate to wire. Prior to today Know Plans had twice in his career competed on a synthetic surface, both times on this Del Mar main track. In those two races Know Plans had finished 9th and 6th. In his most recent race going into today Know Plans had finished 6th; three of the horses who finished in front of him that day competed against him again today. When a horse like Know Plans beats you, the only proper response is:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 9 / 10 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $19,831.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Oceanside - # 9 Enterprising (2.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Passing Game (30.40) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Affrettando (4.30) - "A" Selection
You could say that a Win by Post Time Favorite Enterprising suggests that the Oceanside wasn't as wide open as we had thought. But I think the fact that Enterprising had to go from last to first and then run the final furlong in 10.84 seconds (using the simplified calculation of taking the time of the quarter of 11.79 and then subtracting 1/5 of a second for each length that Enterprising gained on the leader; something that I failed to do earlier, and thus requiring this edit) to win by just a neck over # 1 Argyle Cut (4.50) is evidence that this was indeed a very competitive event.
Passing Game was certainly deserving of more attention than we gave him, considering that he was one-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar main track going into today's race, along with being three-for-six for his career on all synthetic surfaces. But the only way we would have had Know Plans on our tickets would have been to hit the "ALL" button for that leg. In his eight career starts prior to today, Know Plans's position at first call was 10th / 8th / 10th / 10th / 6th / 5th / 9th / 6th; yet today he led the field from gate to wire. Prior to today Know Plans had twice in his career competed on a synthetic surface, both times on this Del Mar main track. In those two races Know Plans had finished 9th and 6th. In his most recent race going into today Know Plans had finished 6th; three of the horses who finished in front of him that day competed against him again today. When a horse like Know Plans beats you, the only proper response is:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 9 / 10 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $19,831.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/17/14 SAC R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, picked up his fifth win Thursday for Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo since having been claimed some twenty-three months ago for $4,000 out of this race, in which City Chapel went to post at odds of 29.8-1. Thursday's race, a six furlong Starter Allowance on the dirt in which City Chapel went to post at odds of 11.5-1, was worth $9,650 to the Winner. That brings City Chapel's total purse earnings for the Trujillo barn to $82,605.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/17/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Day @ Del Mar! Sing it Bing!
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Sir Macho (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Romar Success (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Sir Macho earned the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, missed the Win by less than half a length against unrestricted $40k claimers. Sir Macho took the Place in his only other try on a synthetic surface, and his one career Win came at eight furlongs.
Romar Success has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed on a synthetic surface in his career, and missed by less than a length of winning at this level last time out.
RACE 8 - [R] The Oceanside $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 9-2)
# 2 G. G. Ryder (ML 12-1)
# 7 Aotearoa (ML 20-1)
# 9 Enterprising (ML 7-2)
# 12 Forever Juanito (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Argyle Cut has finished in the Exacta all five times that he's competed at today's distance on the turf. G. G. Ryder, Aotearoa, and Enterprising are all stakes winners on the grass at today's distance. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner on the grass, albeit while charging down the Santa Anita hill.
I did not use # 5 Patriots Rule (ML 8-1) or # 10 Texas Ryano (ML 4-1) because they are both one-run closers, and I don't think that this contest suits their running style. But I think I might toss them onto an extra ticket, just in case.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Magic Beam (ML 8-1)
# 9 Diamond of Blue (ML 5-2)
C's
None
All five of Magic Beam's career victories have come over a synthetic surface. Magic Beam has also won three of his seven contests on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money in all but one of those seven events. Diamond of Blue has won at this level in two of his last three races; the only three times that he has competed over this main track.
RACE 10 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Buenos Dias (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Woodmans Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Affrettando (ML 6-1)
# 9 Godard (ML 5-1)
# 13 Causeithertz (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Buenos Dias (Ire) has earned the following Beyers when competing over the Del Mar turf (in order from first to most recent): 84 / 90 / 92 / 90 / 85 / 95 . Any one of those figures puts him right in the mix today.
Fun facts regarding Woodmans Luck: 1) He won the last race ever run at Hollywood Park; 2) That race was run on the grass at today's distance; 3) Prior to today, that was Woodmans Luck only career race on the grass at eight and a half furlongs.
Affrettando has two Wins in four career races on the Del Mar turf. Godard is running for a tag for the first time in his career. Causeithertz is probably a false favorite; but he runs for the Trainer / Jockey tandem of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, and there is absolutely no way that I'm losing today's Pick Four because I didn't cover a Baffert/Smith horse in the finale.
Okay, that's the analysis. You'll notice that I didn't designate any "C" selections above; that's because I believe these races to be wide open enough that attempting to separate the contenders would be a fool's errand. Yet in a way I will engage in a bit of a fool's errand, as in addition to playing one caveman style ticket, I will also be punching in an additional ticket in order to cover Patriots Rule and Texas Ryano in The Oceanside, as well as to allow for the chalk sweeping the sequence. So with that, our two tickets will be:
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,7,9,12 with 8,9 with 6,7,8,9,13 $50.00
Additional Ticket
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5,9,10 with 9 with 13 $1.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:11 EDT / 5:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Sir Macho (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Romar Success (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Sir Macho earned the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, missed the Win by less than half a length against unrestricted $40k claimers. Sir Macho took the Place in his only other try on a synthetic surface, and his one career Win came at eight furlongs.
Romar Success has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed on a synthetic surface in his career, and missed by less than a length of winning at this level last time out.
RACE 8 - [R] The Oceanside $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 9-2)
# 2 G. G. Ryder (ML 12-1)
# 7 Aotearoa (ML 20-1)
# 9 Enterprising (ML 7-2)
# 12 Forever Juanito (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Argyle Cut has finished in the Exacta all five times that he's competed at today's distance on the turf. G. G. Ryder, Aotearoa, and Enterprising are all stakes winners on the grass at today's distance. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner on the grass, albeit while charging down the Santa Anita hill.
I did not use # 5 Patriots Rule (ML 8-1) or # 10 Texas Ryano (ML 4-1) because they are both one-run closers, and I don't think that this contest suits their running style. But I think I might toss them onto an extra ticket, just in case.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Magic Beam (ML 8-1)
# 9 Diamond of Blue (ML 5-2)
C's
None
All five of Magic Beam's career victories have come over a synthetic surface. Magic Beam has also won three of his seven contests on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money in all but one of those seven events. Diamond of Blue has won at this level in two of his last three races; the only three times that he has competed over this main track.
RACE 10 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Buenos Dias (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Woodmans Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Affrettando (ML 6-1)
# 9 Godard (ML 5-1)
# 13 Causeithertz (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Buenos Dias (Ire) has earned the following Beyers when competing over the Del Mar turf (in order from first to most recent): 84 / 90 / 92 / 90 / 85 / 95 . Any one of those figures puts him right in the mix today.
Fun facts regarding Woodmans Luck: 1) He won the last race ever run at Hollywood Park; 2) That race was run on the grass at today's distance; 3) Prior to today, that was Woodmans Luck only career race on the grass at eight and a half furlongs.
Affrettando has two Wins in four career races on the Del Mar turf. Godard is running for a tag for the first time in his career. Causeithertz is probably a false favorite; but he runs for the Trainer / Jockey tandem of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, and there is absolutely no way that I'm losing today's Pick Four because I didn't cover a Baffert/Smith horse in the finale.
Okay, that's the analysis. You'll notice that I didn't designate any "C" selections above; that's because I believe these races to be wide open enough that attempting to separate the contenders would be a fool's errand. Yet in a way I will engage in a bit of a fool's errand, as in addition to playing one caveman style ticket, I will also be punching in an additional ticket in order to cover Patriots Rule and Texas Ryano in The Oceanside, as well as to allow for the chalk sweeping the sequence. So with that, our two tickets will be:
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,7,9,12 with 8,9 with 6,7,8,9,13 $50.00
Additional Ticket
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5,9,10 with 9 with 13 $1.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:11 EDT / 5:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 12, 2014
7/12/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 3 Rowdy Dylan (Final Odds 0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 5 Fiesta Express (9.40) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Great Lady M. - # 7 Doinghardtimeagain (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Jeffrey's Pride (6.50) - "C" Selection
"Relatively Correct is clearly the best of those remaining, and by the time the betting is done may go down in history as the worst horse ever to go off at odds well below even money....personally, I don't have enough faith in a horse like Relatively Correct to make him a single, as all too often these horses manage to find a way to lose."
Sadly prophetic words, as # 1 Relatively Correct (Final Odds 0.20*) loses the photo in the finale, sending our play into the dustbin. For the record, had Relatively Correct held on at the wire, the Late Pick Four would have paid $74.65.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 7 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $512.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 5 Fiesta Express (9.40) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The Great Lady M. - # 7 Doinghardtimeagain (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Jeffrey's Pride (6.50) - "C" Selection
"Relatively Correct is clearly the best of those remaining, and by the time the betting is done may go down in history as the worst horse ever to go off at odds well below even money....personally, I don't have enough faith in a horse like Relatively Correct to make him a single, as all too often these horses manage to find a way to lose."
Sadly prophetic words, as # 1 Relatively Correct (Final Odds 0.20*) loses the photo in the finale, sending our play into the dustbin. For the record, had Relatively Correct held on at the wire, the Late Pick Four would have paid $74.65.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 5 / 7 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $512.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/12/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap Great Lady M Stakes is being run at its new home at Los Al today; it's the third leg of today's Late Pick Four sequence. So let's get to it:
RACE 5 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rowdy Dylan (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Popsracer (ML 4-1)
# 7 Dr. Vincentstein (ML 7-2)
Rowdy Dylan took the Place in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (Peter Miller) who gets approximately 18% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Popsracer took the Show in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (David Hofmans) who gets approximately 19% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Dr. Vincentstein shows a good gate work over this track back on June 27; and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Paul Aguirre / Iggy Puglisi do good work together.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N1Y - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Ghost N Your Heart (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sizzling Lassie (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Metaxa (ML 7-2)
# 5 Fiesta Express (ML 4-1)
The last time Ghost N Your Heart posted a Beyer Speed Figure below 60 on a dirt track was in her second career start back in January 2011; but that was also her only prior career start at seven furlongs, which may or may not be a coincidence. Guns N Your Heart gets a good helping of class relief, moving from open claimers to this conditioned contest. Likewise for Sizzling Lassie, who has finished in the money in her last three events, all against non-conditioned claimers.
Metaxa and Fiesta Express are both coming back on short rest and could be live. Note that Fiesta Express earned his career best dirt Beyer in his only prior contest at today's distance.
RACE 7 - The Great Lady M. (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
I'm not ashamed to admit it; I found this event inscrutable. The only horse I would toss would be # 2 Concave (ML 10-1); but if you can only find one horse to toss, then there's no excuse not to use them all. # 1 Tres Belle (ML 3-1) runs for the Baffert / Garcia Trainer / Jockey tandem and shows steadily increasing Beyers, earning a number last time out that virtually matches her career best Beyer, which she earned in her debut. # 3 Clearly Confused (ML 4-1) is a specialist at today's distance, having finished in the Exacta in each of her five career starts at six and a half furlongs.
# 4 Heir Kitty (ML 5-2), winner of the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes last December, will appreciate not having to again go up against Judy the Beauty. # 5 Amaranth (ML 8-1) could be the speed of the speed here, and may very well be worth a play in the Win Pool if she gets overlooked in the betting. # 6 Sagebrush Queen (ML 5-1) just misses by a half length of having four Wins in her last five tries, and has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. If # 7 Doinghardtimeagin (ML 5-1) returns to the form that she showed last year when winning the Hollywood Oaks then she could very well crush this field.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Relatively Correct (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Jeffery's Pride (ML 15-1)
# 6 Warren's Concept (ML 20-1)
# 7 It's Superman (ML 20-1)
# 2 Friendly Hays (ML 15-1); # 4 Doubledeesonthetee (ML 6-5); and # 5 Bright Ocean (ML 3-1) have all been scratched.
The four horses remaining in this field went off at the following odds in their last respective race: 14.30; 20.80; 23.10; 54.30. Relatively Correct is clearly the best of those remaining, and by the time the betting is done may go down in history as the worst horse ever to go off at odds well below even money. If you want, you can cut down substantially on the cost of this play by eliminating the "C" contenders; but personally, I don't have enough faith in a horse like Relatively Correct to make him a single, as all too often these horses manage to find a way to lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $7.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 3,6,7 $21.00
Total: $56.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rowdy Dylan (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Popsracer (ML 4-1)
# 7 Dr. Vincentstein (ML 7-2)
Rowdy Dylan took the Place in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (Peter Miller) who gets approximately 18% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Popsracer took the Show in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (David Hofmans) who gets approximately 19% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Dr. Vincentstein shows a good gate work over this track back on June 27; and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Paul Aguirre / Iggy Puglisi do good work together.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N1Y - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Ghost N Your Heart (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sizzling Lassie (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Metaxa (ML 7-2)
# 5 Fiesta Express (ML 4-1)
The last time Ghost N Your Heart posted a Beyer Speed Figure below 60 on a dirt track was in her second career start back in January 2011; but that was also her only prior career start at seven furlongs, which may or may not be a coincidence. Guns N Your Heart gets a good helping of class relief, moving from open claimers to this conditioned contest. Likewise for Sizzling Lassie, who has finished in the money in her last three events, all against non-conditioned claimers.
Metaxa and Fiesta Express are both coming back on short rest and could be live. Note that Fiesta Express earned his career best dirt Beyer in his only prior contest at today's distance.
RACE 7 - The Great Lady M. (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
I'm not ashamed to admit it; I found this event inscrutable. The only horse I would toss would be # 2 Concave (ML 10-1); but if you can only find one horse to toss, then there's no excuse not to use them all. # 1 Tres Belle (ML 3-1) runs for the Baffert / Garcia Trainer / Jockey tandem and shows steadily increasing Beyers, earning a number last time out that virtually matches her career best Beyer, which she earned in her debut. # 3 Clearly Confused (ML 4-1) is a specialist at today's distance, having finished in the Exacta in each of her five career starts at six and a half furlongs.
# 4 Heir Kitty (ML 5-2), winner of the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes last December, will appreciate not having to again go up against Judy the Beauty. # 5 Amaranth (ML 8-1) could be the speed of the speed here, and may very well be worth a play in the Win Pool if she gets overlooked in the betting. # 6 Sagebrush Queen (ML 5-1) just misses by a half length of having four Wins in her last five tries, and has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. If # 7 Doinghardtimeagin (ML 5-1) returns to the form that she showed last year when winning the Hollywood Oaks then she could very well crush this field.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Relatively Correct (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Jeffery's Pride (ML 15-1)
# 6 Warren's Concept (ML 20-1)
# 7 It's Superman (ML 20-1)
# 2 Friendly Hays (ML 15-1); # 4 Doubledeesonthetee (ML 6-5); and # 5 Bright Ocean (ML 3-1) have all been scratched.
The four horses remaining in this field went off at the following odds in their last respective race: 14.30; 20.80; 23.10; 54.30. Relatively Correct is clearly the best of those remaining, and by the time the betting is done may go down in history as the worst horse ever to go off at odds well below even money. If you want, you can cut down substantially on the cost of this play by eliminating the "C" contenders; but personally, I don't have enough faith in a horse like Relatively Correct to make him a single, as all too often these horses manage to find a way to lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $7.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 3,6,7 $21.00
Total: $56.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, July 6, 2014
7/6/14 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - # 3 Purely Boy (Final Odds 5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Salvator Mile - # 7 Itsmyluckyday - (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Mr. Viber (6.90) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The United Nations - # 5 Main Sequence (8.00) - "C" Selection
Certainly not one of our better days, as the only "A" Selection we get home is a Post Time Favorite that we didn't single. On the positive side, we did peg # 4 Picozza (1.20*) as a vulnerable Favorite in Race 9; and, as we did yesterday, we did have all the winners among our selections. But the bottom line is the bottom line, and ours went in the wrong direction today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 5 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $830.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Salvator Mile - # 7 Itsmyluckyday - (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Mr. Viber (6.90) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The United Nations - # 5 Main Sequence (8.00) - "C" Selection
Certainly not one of our better days, as the only "A" Selection we get home is a Post Time Favorite that we didn't single. On the positive side, we did peg # 4 Picozza (1.20*) as a vulnerable Favorite in Race 9; and, as we did yesterday, we did have all the winners among our selections. But the bottom line is the bottom line, and ours went in the wrong direction today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 5 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $830.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/6/14 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Preview
On the final day of this beautiful Fourth of July weekend we turn now from west to east, and try our hand at Monmouth Park on United Nations Day. Since Late Pick Fours come early on the East Coast analysis will be much more sparse than usual; hopefully, though, the selections will not be lacking.
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Strategic Keeper (Morning Line 9-2)
# 4 Picozza (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mythical Man (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Purely Boy (ML 6-1)
# 5 Best Play (ML 4-1)
# 6 Kwacha (ML 6-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Strategic Keeper (Morning Line 9-2)
# 4 Picozza (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mythical Man (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Purely Boy (ML 6-1)
# 5 Best Play (ML 4-1)
# 6 Kwacha (ML 6-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)
Picozza is the Morning Line Favorite, and is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by Joe Bravo; for that reason alone he must be respected. But it's telling that Picozza's best effort (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) came in his one career race that was off the turf. Perhaps even more telling is the fact that the class drop from Graded Stakes to Allowance company produced no noticeable improvement in either Beyer or placing. Again, the connections must be respected, which is why I have Picozza as an "A" rather than a "C"; but in my opinion this race is in fact very wide open.
RACE 10 - The Salvator Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Dawly (ML 6-1)
# 7 Itsmyluckyday (ML 3-1)
# 10 Valid (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 4 Raging Daoust (ML 30-1)
Dawly enters this contest with the best last out Beyer, a figure that is not greatly above the others that he has earned this year. Itsmyluckyday is the class standout here and comes into this event having won his last two, including a stakes win over this main track. Valid may get hung wide in the turn due to the Post Position draw; but he has shown in the past the ability to win when not on the lead. Raging Daoust, who paid $69 when he won this contest last year, in on the ticket because sometimes lighting does strike twice in the same place.
RACE 11 - OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Ain't Got Time (ML 4-1)
# 6 On the Loose Again (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 5 Mr. Viber (ML 10-1)
# 7 Untamed (ML 12-1)
# 8 Inmyfathersimage (ML 7-2)
# 11 Jazz Maxx (ML 9-2)
Ain't Got Time tries winners (but not older horses) for the first time; but he's worked well since graduating, and this looks to be about as soft a spot as you can land from an MSW win without being put up for sale. If On the Loose Again returns to the form that he showed in his routes last Fall, then he could be an easy winner here.
RACE 12 - The United Nations (Grade 1) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Twilight Eclipse (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Ghurair (ML 3-1)
# 5 Main Sequence (ML 8-1)
# 7 Kaigun (ML 5-1)
Twilight Eclipse is a Graded Stakes winner at today's distance, having taken the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida earlier this year. If Twilight Eclipse is allowed to get loose on the front end, then this one could be over well before they hit the wire.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 4 with 2,6 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 5,7,8,11 with 3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 2,5,7 $27.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:41 EDT / 1:41 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 5, 2014
7/5/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Crux (Final Odds 6.20) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Tough Business (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - Los Alamitos Derby - # 5 Shared Belief (0.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Lucky S. J. (9.10) - "A" Selection
As sometimes happens, we had 'em all, but not all on the same ticket. While it's easy to look back at the first two legs and shake our heads at the mistakes that were made, the real error came in the big race; and that mistake was not recognizing Shared Belief for the standout that he was. A ticket that had singled Shared Belief while using all our other selections (both "A's" and "C's") in the other three legs would have cost $48 and would have cashed. But such was not to be.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 5 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $443.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Tough Business (4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - Los Alamitos Derby - # 5 Shared Belief (0.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Lucky S. J. (9.10) - "A" Selection
As sometimes happens, we had 'em all, but not all on the same ticket. While it's easy to look back at the first two legs and shake our heads at the mistakes that were made, the real error came in the big race; and that mistake was not recognizing Shared Belief for the standout that he was. A ticket that had singled Shared Belief while using all our other selections (both "A's" and "C's") in the other three legs would have cost $48 and would have cashed. But such was not to be.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 5 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $443.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/5/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
Hopefully all of you are enjoying your Independence Day Weekend and you all managed to shoot off your fireworks last night without requiring a trip to the emergency room or a visit from the local fire department. Belmont Park has put together an excellent card today, including five Graded Stakes; indeed, three of the Late Pick Four races will be Graded Stakes. But two of those Graded Stakes are scheduled for the grass, as is the card’s finale; and Friday saw buckets of rain dumped on the turf; and since a few races were kept on the grass today, the turf got pretty beat up. Now, the weather in the New York City area is much, much better today than it was yesterday; and I understand that the maintenance crew at Belmont Park has done a fine job of getting the turf ready for today's action. But I decided that turf condition was a variable that I just didn't want to have to deal with today; so instead of looking to the East I decided to turn to the West and take a shot at Los Al's Thoroughbred Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Opsec (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 4 Good Deal (ML 10-1)
# 7 Crux (ML 6-1)
# 9 Radiant Dancer (ML 5-2)
Opsec is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Martin Garcia; and it's tempting to stop the analysis right there and proclaim, "Good enough for me!" But you can also factor in that Opsec is by Pioneer of the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Also note that Opsec shows a steady workout pattern since early April, and has the second best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field, behind only Good Deal.
If you're playing the Win Pool, Good Deal is appropriately named, especially if he should go to post at his Morning Line odds. Good Deal runs for the combo of Trainer Tom Proctor and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke, who have been doing very good work together. First time starters by Smart Strike, Good Deal's sire, win approximately 14% of their tries. Good Deal shows a steady workout pattern going back to mid-April, and, as mentioned above, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the Distance in this field. While I feel that Opsec rates a clear edge over Good Deal, if Good Deal goes to post at anything close to 10-1 you can be certain that he'll have at least some of my money on his nose.
Crux is the only experienced runner in this field, and has flashed some early speed in some of his previous outings. Radiant Dancer has been firing bullets in the morning, and goes for a trainer (Jeff Bonde) who gets approximately 21% winners from his first time starters; but the gaps in the workouts are a concern.
RACE 7 - (F) Alw 25000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Rhodium (ML 3-1)
# 5 Creditcardroulette (ML 4-1)
# 7 Appealing Resume (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Tough Business (ML 4-1)
The first thing to note is that, unlike the Starter Allowances run at Santa Anita, this one is not restricted to horses who have yet to win two races in their career (N2L). It's an important distinction; though, sadly, not one that you'll find in the DRF Past Performances. For example, note the June 1 race for # 3 La Quillotana (ML 10-1) and note especially that there is no N2L designation in the DRF Past Performances for that Starter Allowance, even though the chart of that race makes it clear that the race was restricted to runners who had fewer than two lifetime wins.
Toss Rhodium's last race, which was charging down the grass hill at Santa Anita; obviously something that she did not enjoy, but which Trainer Peter Miller was no doubt using to get her back into shape after a brief vacation (note that Miller shows a flat bet profit when moving his runners from turf to dirt). Rhodium has shown herself to be competitive at a class level above today's contest, and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke wins approximately 23% of the time that he sits on top of a Peter Miller horse.
Creditcardroulette will be making her first start on a fast dirt track, and there's every reason to expect her to handle it well, as her sire, Northern Afleet, was a Graded Stakes winner on dirt. Appealing Resume is another where I'm willing to toss her last race, as a return to her form prior to that contest puts her right in the mix today. But caution is warranted here, as Resume is seven years old, and that last outing may be the first sign of an age-related decline.
Tough Business looks to be a young improving runner who may continue to step up her game as she moves up the class ladder, though the barn change is a bit of a concern.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
# 6 Top Fortitude (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Can the Man (ML 6-1)
# 4 Friendswith K Mill (ML 10-1)
# 7 Candy Boy (ML 5-2)
If Shared Belief runs his race, he wins, as the two-time Graded Stakes winner stands out as much the best in this field. While Shared Belief has never gone this far in competition, I doubt that the distance will present him with any problems. The main concern is that this will be Shared Belief's first outing on a real dirt track; and the fact that he's been working on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate in preparation for this contest does little to alleviate that concern. Therefore, I thought it was a good idea to spread a little wide in this event.
Bayern is the only reason that Top Fortitude is not also a two-time Graded Stakes winner. Note that the Beyer Speed Figure that Top Fortitude earned last time out in the Woody Stephens is a virtual match for his career best Beyer that he earned in his two year old debut, suggesting that he may be ready to take a big step forward off that number. Oh, also note that if you got your online DRF PP's at around the same time that I did, the closer look comments for Top Fortitude actually belongs under Candy Boy, and vice-versa.
Can the Man, going for the Trainer Bob Baffert / Jockey Martin Garcia duo, has earned steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures in each of his five career starts. Note also that Can the Man has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field.
Friendswith K Mill took the Place last time out behind Can the Man in the Grade 3 Affirmed. If the pace gets too hot up front Friendswith K Mill may be the one swooping in late to get his picture taken. Candy Boy is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt, though I suspect that his best may be a cut below what others in this field have to offer.
RACE 9 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs
A’s
# 1 Lucky S. J. (ML 6-1)
# 3 Swiss Intrigue (ML 7-2)
# 7 Our Love Affair (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Inflamed (ML 15-1)
# 8 Yodelmesomemagic (ML 5-1)
# 9 Grace Victoria (ML 3-1)
Lucky S. J. shows some serious gaps in his published works, and goes for a conditioner (Philip D'Amato) that gets only 6% winners from his debut runners. So why do I have him as an "A" selection? Call it more hunch than logic; though positives in Lucky S. J.'s favor include the 12.5% Winning Percentage for first timers sired by Lucky J. H., along with the fact that Martin Garcia does quite well when running for this barn.
Swiss Intrigue is by Swiss Yodeler, who gets approximately 11% winners from his first time starters. Note also the lack of gaps in Swiss Intrigue's published works.
Our Love Affair Is sired by Cyclotron, whose progeny win a little less than 17% of their debuts, and trained by Bruce Headley, who wins approximately 13% of the time (with a $4.04 ROI) with first time starters. Also note that Our Love Affair has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Inflamed returns to the track after a nearly two year absence. The gap in the public works between April 10 and June 4 is a concern, though a return to the form that she showed in her debut puts her in the mix for this one.
Yodelmesomemagic makes her three year old debut after being away from the track for over a year. The barn switch can be viewed as a positive, but the one month gap in published works from May 17 to June 17 could be a concern.
Grace Victoria flashed some early speed in her debut, taking the Show (albeit in a four horse field). The concern is that runners for Trainer Doug O'Neil don't often improve in their second attempt if they fail to win their first time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7,9 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 3,4,7 with 1,3,7 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 2,8,9 $9.00
Total: $70.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Opsec (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 4 Good Deal (ML 10-1)
# 7 Crux (ML 6-1)
# 9 Radiant Dancer (ML 5-2)
Opsec is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Martin Garcia; and it's tempting to stop the analysis right there and proclaim, "Good enough for me!" But you can also factor in that Opsec is by Pioneer of the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Also note that Opsec shows a steady workout pattern since early April, and has the second best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field, behind only Good Deal.
If you're playing the Win Pool, Good Deal is appropriately named, especially if he should go to post at his Morning Line odds. Good Deal runs for the combo of Trainer Tom Proctor and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke, who have been doing very good work together. First time starters by Smart Strike, Good Deal's sire, win approximately 14% of their tries. Good Deal shows a steady workout pattern going back to mid-April, and, as mentioned above, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the Distance in this field. While I feel that Opsec rates a clear edge over Good Deal, if Good Deal goes to post at anything close to 10-1 you can be certain that he'll have at least some of my money on his nose.
Crux is the only experienced runner in this field, and has flashed some early speed in some of his previous outings. Radiant Dancer has been firing bullets in the morning, and goes for a trainer (Jeff Bonde) who gets approximately 21% winners from his first time starters; but the gaps in the workouts are a concern.
RACE 7 - (F) Alw 25000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Rhodium (ML 3-1)
# 5 Creditcardroulette (ML 4-1)
# 7 Appealing Resume (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Tough Business (ML 4-1)
The first thing to note is that, unlike the Starter Allowances run at Santa Anita, this one is not restricted to horses who have yet to win two races in their career (N2L). It's an important distinction; though, sadly, not one that you'll find in the DRF Past Performances. For example, note the June 1 race for # 3 La Quillotana (ML 10-1) and note especially that there is no N2L designation in the DRF Past Performances for that Starter Allowance, even though the chart of that race makes it clear that the race was restricted to runners who had fewer than two lifetime wins.
Toss Rhodium's last race, which was charging down the grass hill at Santa Anita; obviously something that she did not enjoy, but which Trainer Peter Miller was no doubt using to get her back into shape after a brief vacation (note that Miller shows a flat bet profit when moving his runners from turf to dirt). Rhodium has shown herself to be competitive at a class level above today's contest, and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke wins approximately 23% of the time that he sits on top of a Peter Miller horse.
Creditcardroulette will be making her first start on a fast dirt track, and there's every reason to expect her to handle it well, as her sire, Northern Afleet, was a Graded Stakes winner on dirt. Appealing Resume is another where I'm willing to toss her last race, as a return to her form prior to that contest puts her right in the mix today. But caution is warranted here, as Resume is seven years old, and that last outing may be the first sign of an age-related decline.
Tough Business looks to be a young improving runner who may continue to step up her game as she moves up the class ladder, though the barn change is a bit of a concern.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
# 6 Top Fortitude (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Can the Man (ML 6-1)
# 4 Friendswith K Mill (ML 10-1)
# 7 Candy Boy (ML 5-2)
If Shared Belief runs his race, he wins, as the two-time Graded Stakes winner stands out as much the best in this field. While Shared Belief has never gone this far in competition, I doubt that the distance will present him with any problems. The main concern is that this will be Shared Belief's first outing on a real dirt track; and the fact that he's been working on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate in preparation for this contest does little to alleviate that concern. Therefore, I thought it was a good idea to spread a little wide in this event.
Bayern is the only reason that Top Fortitude is not also a two-time Graded Stakes winner. Note that the Beyer Speed Figure that Top Fortitude earned last time out in the Woody Stephens is a virtual match for his career best Beyer that he earned in his two year old debut, suggesting that he may be ready to take a big step forward off that number. Oh, also note that if you got your online DRF PP's at around the same time that I did, the closer look comments for Top Fortitude actually belongs under Candy Boy, and vice-versa.
Can the Man, going for the Trainer Bob Baffert / Jockey Martin Garcia duo, has earned steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures in each of his five career starts. Note also that Can the Man has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field.
Friendswith K Mill took the Place last time out behind Can the Man in the Grade 3 Affirmed. If the pace gets too hot up front Friendswith K Mill may be the one swooping in late to get his picture taken. Candy Boy is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt, though I suspect that his best may be a cut below what others in this field have to offer.
RACE 9 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs
A’s
# 1 Lucky S. J. (ML 6-1)
# 3 Swiss Intrigue (ML 7-2)
# 7 Our Love Affair (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Inflamed (ML 15-1)
# 8 Yodelmesomemagic (ML 5-1)
# 9 Grace Victoria (ML 3-1)
Lucky S. J. shows some serious gaps in his published works, and goes for a conditioner (Philip D'Amato) that gets only 6% winners from his debut runners. So why do I have him as an "A" selection? Call it more hunch than logic; though positives in Lucky S. J.'s favor include the 12.5% Winning Percentage for first timers sired by Lucky J. H., along with the fact that Martin Garcia does quite well when running for this barn.
Swiss Intrigue is by Swiss Yodeler, who gets approximately 11% winners from his first time starters. Note also the lack of gaps in Swiss Intrigue's published works.
Our Love Affair Is sired by Cyclotron, whose progeny win a little less than 17% of their debuts, and trained by Bruce Headley, who wins approximately 13% of the time (with a $4.04 ROI) with first time starters. Also note that Our Love Affair has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Inflamed returns to the track after a nearly two year absence. The gap in the public works between April 10 and June 4 is a concern, though a return to the form that she showed in her debut puts her in the mix for this one.
Yodelmesomemagic makes her three year old debut after being away from the track for over a year. The barn switch can be viewed as a positive, but the one month gap in published works from May 17 to June 17 could be a concern.
Grace Victoria flashed some early speed in her debut, taking the Show (albeit in a four horse field). The concern is that runners for Trainer Doug O'Neil don't often improve in their second attempt if they fail to win their first time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7,9 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 3,4,7 with 1,3,7 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 2,8,9 $9.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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