12/26/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The La Brea - # 6 Fun to Dream (Final Odds 2.70) - "C+" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Ballet Dancing (2.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Malibu - # 6 Taiba (0.40*) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The American Oaks - # 1 Rhea Moon (Ire) (6.80) - "B" Selection

A great day for The Great Race Place, as well as for horse racing in general, as an enormous crowd turned out for Opening Day, and a record amount of money was handled.  It was a great day for Trainer Bob Baffert, who had five winners on the day.  However, some could say that, since he ran fourteen horses, some could argue that the day wasn't so great for Baffert, as he suffered nine losses.

There's no argument, however, that the day wasn't great for my "A" Selections; excepting, of course, the Baffert trained Taiba.  My top selection in the La Brea, # 1 Under the Stars (3.80) finished last.  My top pick in the second leg, # 9 Glenall (Ire) (10.80) finished 8th.  In the American Oaks, my top selection, # 5 Bellstreet Bridie (GB) (6.90), finished last.  Not exactly what you would call stellar handicapping.

And yet, despite all that, had I made Fun to Dream a "B" Selection instead of a "C+" Selection in the La Brea, I would have collected.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 3 / 6 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $87.05 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/26/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“We need to accept that we won’t always make the right decisions, that we’ll screw up royally sometimes; understanding that failure is not the opposite of success, it’s part of success.” - Arianna Huffington

I hope all of you who celebrate had a very merry Christmas; and I hope all of you who don't celebrate had a spectacular weekend as well.  And just as sun follows moon and moon follows sun, so too does Boxing Day follow Christmas Day.  And, as is traditional, Boxing Day brings with it Opening Day at Santa Anita, which is always a joyful occasion.  The card is chock full of Graded Stakes, the featured among them being the Grade 1 Malibu.  So with all that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Under the Stars (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 4 Midnight Memories (ML 5-2)+

C's

# 3 Ganadora (ML 4-1)

# 5 Ain't Easy (ML 6-1)

# 6 Fun to Dream (ML 5-1)+

# 7 Kirstenbosch (ML 15-1)
# 8 Awake At Midnyte (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 2 Hot Peppers (ML 8-1)

Midnight Memories defeated older horses in the Grade 2 Zenyatta over this main track last time out.  Despite that, I put Midnight Memories a shade beneath her stablemate Under the Stars, because I think that one turn racing favors Under the Stars.

Fun to Dream gets the plus sign for being two-for-two at the distance.  I decided to spring for the extra two bucks to use the rest of the field as straight "C" Selections, just because I'm not in the mood today for a first round knockout.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Glenall (Ire) (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Ballet Dancing (ML 4-1)

# 7 Myfavoritedaughter (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Precious Baby (ML 12-1)

# 4 Barrister's Ride (ML 15-1)

# 10 Leisurewear (Ire) (ML 8-1)+

# 11 Claddagh Cure (ML 20-1)

# 12 Karakatsie (ML 5-1)+

Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Maeve of Connaught (Ire) (ML 6-1) and # 14 Annaghiasa (Ire) (ML 7-2)

Glenall (Ire) seemed to really enjoy going nine furlongs last time out.  It won't take much improvement off that effort to win against this field, and that Morning Line, if it holds up, is a very attractive price.

Ballet Dancing fits well here with the conditions, and putting the blinkers on could help her stay focused in the stretch.  Myfavoritedaughter has a two race winning streak heading into today; perhaps Myfavoritedaughter is just a late bloomer who is now coming into her own.  I think those three should cover it in this leg, though, as you can see, I've also given out a couple of plus signs among the C's; sort of a "just in case" since I don't yet know how the turf course will play.

RACE 10 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Taiba (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Messier (ML 6-1)+

# 4 Nakatomi (ML 10-1)

You could just single Taiba in this leg and then turn your attention towards more important matters in your life and not have any fears that you've misread this race.  Me, I decided to give Messsier some consideration with the C+ designation.

Messier bled last time out at Keeneland (and, despite the great temptation, I am not going to go off on those who made that possible due to their irrational hatred of Lasix; at least, not right now); if that can be corrected, then perhaps Messier can improve to his prior form.  Note also the solid five furlong work from the gate a dozen days ago; a gate work which was faster than Taiba's non-gate work last week.  Finally, consider that, despite Messier finishing way, way, way back in each of his last two starts, Jockey Johnny V isn't jumping off his back.  I mean, that's gotta mean something.

RACE 11 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Bellstreet Bridie (GB) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Rhea Moon (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 2 Sprakle Blue (ML 8-1)

# 6 Miss En Scene (GB) (ML 4-1)+

# 9 Salimah (Ire) (ML 7-2)

C's

# 7 Skims (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 8 Pizza Bianca (ML 6-1)

# 11 School Dance (ML 15-1)+

A great race to close out the day, as this contest looks to me to be wide open.  If your bankroll will allow, feel free to spread even wider than I did in this leg.

I made Bellstreet Bridie (GB) my top selection here because I feel that Bellstreet Bridie has defeated tougher competition than other contenders in this field.  I see Miss En Scene (GB) as just a bit beneath Bellstreet Bridie.  Miss En Scene has great tactical speed, and Miss En Scene should get first run at the pacesetters.  But, I stress again, I see this contest as being wide open; so, as it so often is with turf races, trip could be the ultimate determinate today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 1 with 9 with 6 with 5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 3,7,9 with 6 with 1,2,5,6,9 $15.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,6 with 9,10,12 with 2,6 with 5,6,11 $27.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,8 with 9 with 6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,11 with 6 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 9 with 4 with 5 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 9 with 6 with 7,8 $1.00

Total: $49.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 5:35 EST / 2:35 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Merry Christmas!

“Everyone can experience the joy and blessing of generosity; because everyone has something to give." - Jan Grace

Here's hoping that Santa stuffed your stockings with enough good luck to overcome all your bad beats.  Merry Christmas!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/24/22 Tampa Bay Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 10 Something Natural (Final Odds 5.40) - "B" Selection

Race 6 - # 10 Saffron Moon (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 5 Bank Frenzy (2.50) - "C+" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 Mr. Kringle (1.90*) - "B+" Selection

Coulda, shoulda, woulda.  I originally had Bank Frenzy as a "B" Selection in the third leg, with # 3 Falk (16.80) as a "C+" Selection, only to switch them at a later stage of my handicapping.  Had I stayed with my original lineup, I collect.  For that matter, had I singled Saffron Moon in the second leg, I almost certainly would have had both Bank Frenzy and Falk on the main ticket; and then again I would have collected.

But, hey, it's Xmas Eve; how upset can you be?  Besides, Mr. Kringle won, proving that he'll be fast enough to visit everyone's home tonight.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 10 / 5 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $69.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/24/22 Tampa Bay Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more.” - Erica Jong

Merry Christmas Eve, everyone!  Hopefully all that reading this are warm and dry, safe and sound.  And, really, that's about all I have for an introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I turn my attention to the Sunshine State and take a run at The Late Pick Four at Tampa Bay Downs.

RACE 5 - OClm 12500 - Eight and Two Elevenths Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Greyzer (Morning Line 5-1)

B’s

# 2 Candy Cove (ML 10-1)

# 9 Pemaquid Pete (ML 15-1)

# 10 Something Natural (ML 10-1)

C's

# 4 Hard Lighting (ML 6-1)

# 6 Roan Mountain (ML 9-2)

# 7 Carmenootz (ML 12-1)

The Starter Allowance piece of this contest's conditions is that, either this year or last, the entrant must have started for a claiming price of $8k or less.  For those who note such things, the runners in this field who are in for the $12.5 claiming price are Hard Lighting, Roan Mountain, and Carmenootz.

Obviously the line maker at Tampa Bay Downs considered this to be a wide open affair, as the Morning Line Favorite in this ten horse field is listed as 9-2.  So those with the willingness and bankroll to spread wider than I have in this opening leg should do so without hesitancy, as there are many in this field who can be considered serious contenders.

On the other hand, if Greyzer, who was victorious in his only prior try over this main track, is ready to roll off the freshening, then this really won't be much of a contest at all; as Greyzer at his best should romp over this field.  So those are the opposing ways of looking at this event; and, well, I sorta copped out and chose a middle ground.

RACE 6 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 10 Saffron Moon (ML 6-5)

B's

# 7 Sweet Duchess (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Andor (Fr) (ML 9-2)

# 6 Byrdie Howe (ML 6-1)

# 14 Bazzarina (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 2 Summer At the Spa (ML 15-1); # 3 Feets of Feather (ML 15-1); # 9 Memphis Showboat (ML 10-1); # 11 Beauty Quist (ML 6-1); # 12 Standoff (ML 5-1); and # 13 Gabby Squared.

And so we go from a heavily contested contest to a field which contains a potentially legitimate single.  Saffron Moon, trained by Chad Brown, won by the length of the stretch last time out in her first try on the grass.  That was back in April at Kenneland.  Saffron Moon has not competed since that victory; but, as those conditioned by Chad Brown tend to do well first off the layoff, that extended vacation should not disadvantage Saffron Moon.

So why didn't I single Saffron Moon on the main ticket?  Nothing against Saffron Moon, but I really like Sweet Duchess with the class drop.  I still consider Saffron Moon the better selection; and I fully support those of the opinion that Saffron Moon should be singled.  But after long consideration, I believe that Sweet Duchess has a sufficient enough possibility of pulling off the upset that doubling the cost of the main ticket is justified.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Silver Style (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Falk (ML 8-1)+

C's

# 5 Bank Frenzy (ML 5-2)+

# 6 All Our Munny (ML 8-1)

# 7 Richiesonaroll (ML 9-2)

# 8 Fire Baron (ML 10-1)

# 9 Three Fold (ML 10-1)+

Silver Style has finished in the Trifecta in each of his four career starts.  Is that a positive or a negative?  In this case, I see that as a positive, primarily because in all but one of those starts Silver Style was not the Post Time Favorite.  Since he wasn't the public's top choice, it's reasonable to conclude that Silver Style didn't settle for a minor award, bur rather was defeated by a better runner.  Today I expect Silver Style to be the better runner.

Falk has shown good early speed in his races on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs; generally, speed on the synthetic tends to carry over to real dirt tracks.  If it does for Falk today, then Falk may be crossing under the wire before many of these hit their best stride.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 8 Justintimeforwine (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Rock the Stars (ML 7-2)
# 3 Mr. Kringle (ML 3-1)+

# 5 Verrazanointhesky (ML 20-1)

# 9 Willow Wood (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Great Britain (ML 12-1)

# 4 Pirate Parade (ML 8-1)
# 6 Anvil (ML 20-1)

# 7 Swing Low (ML 6-1)+

Scratch # 10 Ronstadt (ML 10-1) and # 11 Call Curt (ML 4-1)

Another wide open affair; or, at least, that's what I'm expecting it to be.  Use as many as you like and can afford.  The only comment that I'll make on this contest is that, on any other day, Mr. Kringle would rank much lower on my tickets, as Mr. Kringle has proven on many occasions that he prefers to settle for minor awards rather than having his picture taken.  But there is no way, just no way, that I'm going to fade Mr. Kringle on Xmas Eve.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 4 with 8 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,9,10 with 7,10 with 3,4 with 2,3,5,8,9 $40.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3,4,5,9 with 3,7,8 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 10 with 4 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,6,14 with 4 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 6,7,8 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 4 with 1,4,6 $1.50

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 2:29 EST / 11:29 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/18/22 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 4 Mighty Matt (Final Odds 2.10) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 5 Take a Leap (8.90) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Joe Don Looney (2.30*) - "C+" Selection

Race 10 - The King Glorious - # 1 Giver Not a Taker (0.60*) - "C" Selection

Well, all good things must come to an end.  Of course, all not so good things also come to an end; but, let's not get too philosophical.  Getting my "A" Selection Mighty Matt home was a great way to kick off the sequence.  And when my "A" Selection in the second leg, # 3 Talkative Gal (1.40*), grabbed the lead with less than a furlong to go, it appeared that things were getting even better.  But unfortunately for me, it all went downhill quickly from there, as Take a Leap got by Talkative Gal in the final strides of Race 8 to turn all my tickets into trash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 5 / 3 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $300.50 for their one dollar wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/18/22 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

"The ancient Greek definition of happiness was the full use of your powers along lines of excellence." - John F. Kennedy

As someone who (more or less) regularly follows the Southern California thoroughbred circuit, I used to play Los Alamitos Race Course when they assumed dates that previously had belonged to Hollywood Park (December), as well as those dates that had once belonged to Fairplex Park, aka Los Angeles County Fairgrounds (September).  But a few years back Los Alamitos Race Course decided to raise the minimum on my preferred wager, The Pick Four, from fifty cents to a dollar.  Which, quite frankly, puts the play outside my budget.

But, with my recent success, I figure now's a good a time as any to take a chance at the higher stakes.  Among the factors that went into my decision was the knowledge that I could blame the higher base wager should I be unsuccessful today.  Besides, it's closing day for the meet; and fun things tend to happen on closing days.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Mighty Matt (Morning Line 5-1)

B’s

# 7 Harper's Gem (ML 6-1)+

# 8 Catbernay (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Count Tolstoy (ML 30-1)

# 2 Sayers (ML 20-1)

# 3 Street Behavior (ML 30-1)

# 5 Swamp'n Ain't Ez (ML 9-5)

# 6  Rawhide Rawlins (ML 7-2)

A five and a half furlong sprint, with many of these runners often found circling this track at night.  This one could be wild.

As I'm sure you've already noticed, Morning Line Favorite Swamp'n Ain't Ez is not my top pick.  Granted, based upon his Show finish last time out at this approximate class level, Swamp'n Ain't Ez deserves strong consideration.  But Swamp'n Ain't Ez has had difficulty making the distance when competing during the day; including in his last victory over this track in its long stretch variation.  It's my opinion that Swamp'n Ain't Ez will be very much overused in the pools.

Okay; so if not Swamp'n Ain't Ez, then who?  Mighty Matt looks good off the class drop, as well as having a name that I could grow to love.  Harper's Gem is replicating many of the same steps that he followed  the last time that he won over this track at today's class level.  Catbernay is another that could thrive with the class relief.

All runners are being used in some fashion in this leg, as, again, this one has the potential for chaos written all over it.  Unless, of course, Swamp'n Ain't Ez shows no problems at all with getting the distance; in which case I will be shown to be very wrong in my analysis.

RACE 8 - (F) Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Talkative Gal (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Flat Out Joy (ML 7-2)

# 6 Rain Diva (ML 5-1)+

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  The only requirement for this contest is that the runner must be of the distaff variety, three years old or upward, and she must have started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less.  I see no timeline in the conditions as given in my Past Performances, so apparently that start for a claiming price of $12.5k or less could have happened anytime in the history of mankind.

Talkative Gal won by daylight over this track just eight days ago.  If Talkative Gal came out of that contest okay, then this isn't going to be much of a race.

Flat Out Joy returns off the freshening; and while Flat Out Joy is a solid contender in this field, Flat Out Joy settles for too many minor awards.  Rain Diva could be the speed of the speed.

RACE 9 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Prodigal Son (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Sawasdee (ML 9-2)+

# 5 Windribbon (ML 5-1)
# 7 Disko Tribute (ML 7-2)

# 8 Larry's Legend (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Head for Business (ML 12-1)

# 3 Joe Don Looney (ML 5-1)+

# 4 Alpine Thunder (ML 5-1)

For all those who take an interest in such matters, there are no entrants in this field which will be competing with the $20k claiming price tag hanging over their head.

As with the opening leg of this sequence, I'll be using all runners in this leg in some shape or form.  Part of the reason for the wide spread in this contest is because the first level Allowance Optional Claiming (OC/N1X) races on the SoCal circuit, both state bred and open company, tend to be very competitive.

If someone was looking to cut down on the cost of their Late Pick Four play, it would be very tempting to lean heavily on Prodigal Son and/or Sawasdee in this leg, as both turned in performances in their last out race which, if replicated, would almost certainly win today.  Personally, I think that Prodigal Son and Sawasdee have some minor question marks regarding how they will run today.  Specifically, both were claimed last time out.  Sawasdee will therefore be riding for a new barn; while Prodigal Son's claim was voided, and Prodigal Son then went on to spend the next three months on the sidelines.  Neither of these factoids, in my opinion, disqualifies either runner from being considered a top contender in this field; but it does, in my mind, confirm that spreading in this leg is not just prudent, but the better way to go.

RACE 10 - [S] The King Glorious $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Belly Up (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Geezer (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Giver Not a Taker (ML 2-1)

# 6 Amigo G A (ML 15-1)

# 8 Tom and Jazzy (ML 5-1)

Were this event a sprint, I would almost certainly be leaning heavily upon Giver Not a Taker in this leg.  But this stakes is not a sprint; and I have serious questions regarding Giver Not a Taker's ability to get all eight furlongs without running out of gas.  So it's Belly Up and Geezer on the main ticket, with Giver Not a Taker being used as a backup "C" Selection at the cost of a buck.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$5.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 6 with 4 $5.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,7,8 with 3 with 1,5,6,7,8 with 2,4 $30.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,7 with 3,6 with 1,3,6 with 4 $12.00

A's with One C

$1.00 P4: 1,2,3,5,6 with 3 with 6 with 4 $5.00

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 4 $1.00

$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,4 with 4 $2.00

$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 6 with 1,6,8 $3.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 6:12 EST / 3:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/15/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 11 Shortlist (Final Odds 8.85) - "B+" Selection

Race 6 - # 9 Ravella (4.64) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 7 Altered Shot (6.52) - "C+" Selection

Race 8 - # 10 Seize the Marquet (2.98) - "B+" Selection

Congrats to Trainer Billy Morey, who conditioned half the winners in the above sequence (Ravella and Seize the Marquet).  As for my play, I'll be honest; I'm not one hundred percent certain that I've hit upon the ticket building formula that works best for me.  But having it win twice in a row sure makes for a compelling case that this is the right way for me to go.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 12 Dear Beau (Ire) (2.24*) - $1,139.63 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 9 / 7 / 10  which paid $2,175.81 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $2,131.31 on my initial $44.50 investment, or approximate odds of 47.89-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/15/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"By failing, a lesson can be learned.  One can learn to avoid the mistake that caused the failure." - Glen Mizrahi

With the mistakes of this past Sunday as motivation, I've taken another small step into the 21st Century.  Specifically, I created an Excel spreadsheet to help me with my ticket construction.  Not for handicapping; I alone take all the blame for that.  But the spreadsheet should (hopefully) make sure that my tickets match my selections.  So, now that I have this new toy, I have to try it out.  So let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Crump (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Nathan Detroit (ML 12-1)

# 11 Shortlist (ML 8-1)+

C's

# 5 You Make Me Happy (ML 15-1)

# 8 Kunshan Bridge (ML 12-1)

# 9 Two Birds (ML 9-2)

Scratch #the Also Eligibles, # 13 Spectacular Gem (ML 12-1) and # 14 Quantum Leap (ML 15-1)

For those who note such things, the entrants in this field running with the $25k tag on their heads are Nathan Detroit; # 3 Viski Jones (ML 15-1); and Shortlist.

Crump has failed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six races; which is why I didn't single him in this leg on the main ticket.  Perhaps I shouldn't have made a money burner like Crump my top selection; but the talent is clearly there, and perhaps being gelded will help Crump to focus on business.

Nathan Detroit was victorious the only other time that he competed over this main track; that seems like a good enough reason to use a 12-1 shot.  Nathan Detroit is also getting some class relief here, as is Shortlist.

There looks to be a lot of early speed in this contest.  Among the anticipated front runners, You Make Me Happy and Two Birds could prove quickest.  Kunshan Bridge could get a nice pace pressing trip.

RACE 6 - MSW - (F) Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Ravella (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Anyquist (ML 5-1)+

# 13 Awesome Ally Vee (ML 30-1)

C's

# 1 Fiddle (ML 7-2)+

# 8 Spirit Dance (ML 15-1)+

# 11 Sweets Maker (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Blessing the Flag (ML 6-1) and # 12 Viewers Discretion (ML 20-1)

I may have spread too much in this leg.  But considering that there are a dozen runners in this field, and not one of them finished in the money last time out, suggests that chaos could be the story of this event.

Ravella didn't show much in her debut on the Keeneland dirt; but Ravella has been working well over the Turfway Park main track.  Anyquist was ambitiously placed last time out, going up against the boys.  Anyquist showed some quickness in that contest before throwing in the towel.

Awesome Ally Vee showed some improvement last time out with the front leg wraps removed; maybe she can build off that effort.  Fiddle wanted no part of the dirt last time out.  Spirit Dance could improve having to cover less real estate, while Sweets Maker might appreciate stretching out.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Miss T Too (ML 2-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Ride the Plan (ML 10-1)

# 7 Altered Shot (ML 6-1)+

# 8 Thunder Love (GB) (ML 5-2)

# 10 Varton (ML 10-1)

# 11 Off We Go (ML 20-1)+

# 12 Tiltingatwindmills (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Current Climate (ML 20-1) and # 14 Discreet Kitty (ML 20-1)

For those who wish to know, the only runner in this field in for the $40k tag is Tiltingatwindmills.

I thought long and hard about moving either or both of Altered Shot and Off We Go onto the main ticket; but I just don't think the added cost is justified.  I might have felt differently were I still using previous method of constructing tickets; but I think having the flexibility of the C+ designation works to my advantage here.  Anyway, we'll see.

I'm also using an above average number of C Selections.  This is the class level where runners are all can win with their best effort; indeed, all of these have found their way to the winner's circle against quality competition at least one other time in their respective careers.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 12 Dear Beau (Ire) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Honey Comb (ML 9-2)

# 10 Seize the Marquet (ML 8-1)+

C's

# 7 Girls House (ML 15-1)

# 11 Time for Cupid (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 5 Burnt Match (ML 15-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Miss Brightside (ML 6-1) and # 14 Flat Out Fay (ML 20-1)

Dear Beau (Ire) has been working her way down the class ladder; this could be the right place for her.  Honey Comb has hit the board in prior tries against more expensive stock.  Honey Comb also had a nice work over this main track earlier this month.

Seize the Marquet didn't show much in her debut last time out; but the class drop coupled with the change in surface could make Marquet a solid contender here.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 3 with 12 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,11 with 3,9,13 with 3 with 2,10,12 $13.50

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,11 with 1,3,8,9 with 3,7,11 with 10,12 $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,8,9 with 9 with 3 with 12 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 3 with 12 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 6,8,10,12 with 12 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 3 with 7,11 $1.00

Total: $44.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/11/22 Golden Gate Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - # 7 Never for Money (Final Odds 1.40*) - "B+" Selection

Race 10 - # 6 Royal 'n Rando (6.70) - "B+" Selection

Race 11 - The Miss America - # 8 Tiz An Edventure (2.70) - "A" Selection

Race 12 # 2 Papa Tiger (2.00*) - "A" Selection

Mistakes sometimes happen when you're trying something new.  Of course, mistakes sometimes happen even when you're not trying something new.  Mistakes are, quite simply, a part of life.

Before I go further, I want to state unhesitatingly, unequivocally, I am very happy with today's results.  And I'm not just saying that to say that.  I won; and I'm happy with the amount that I won.

But, due to a mistake, I didn't win all that I should have.

To save you the time and energy of having to scroll up, I'll copy and paste here one of tickets that I played Sunday:

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with all C+ Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 6,8 with 2,3,8 with 5,10,11 $18.00

Unfortunately, I failed to include all "A" Entries on that ticket.  Specifically, I failed to include my "A" Selection in the final leg, # 2 Papa Tiger.  So that ticket should have actually cost $24, and allowed me to collect twice Sunday instead of just once.

Still, I collected, thanks to the "All A Entries with All B Entries" ticket.  And I am very happy with my half loaf instead of a full loaf.  Mistakes happen in life.  The important thing is to learn, and move on.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Idiot’s Gold (4.90) - $332.60 Finish: 2nd

# 5 Impressive Curls (3.80) - $244.85 Finish: 4th

# 10 Way Too Hot (43.10) - $2,444.50 Finish: 11th

# 11 Havakash Ready (8.90) - $547.00 Finish: 6th

Had Impressive Curls won, I would have collected twice.  But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 6 / 8 / 2  which paid $170.35 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $108.85 on my initial $61.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.77-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/11/22 Golden Gate Late Pick Four - Preview

“What is malleable is always superior to that which is immovable.  This is the principle of controlling things by going along with them, of mastery through adaptation.” - Lao Tzu

Another Sunday, another closing day for a horse racing meeting.  Last weekend we saw the ending of Del Mar's Fall Meeting in Southern California.  This weekend we turn to Northern California, as Golden Gate Fields calls an end to activities until Boxing Day.  As is typically the case, everything must go on a meet's final day, including The Rainbow Pick Six, which is otherwise a jackpot wager, requiring that there be only one ticket in the universe with the winning sequence in order for the entire pool to pay out.  Normally I would be chasing said jackpot; however, I decided this go-round that I would stick with my more usual play, the Late Pick Four.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Marilyn's Smile (Morning Line 10-1)

B’s

# 4 Gettin Sideways (ML 6-1)

# 7 Never for Money (ML 5-2)+

# 9 Redstwirlingdancer (ML 10-1)

C's

# 10 Damn the Torpedoes (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 Do You Hear That (ML 12-1)

Marilyn's Smile was a winner over this track two starts back against $25k Claimers.  However, Marilyn's Smile raced again about three weeks after that victory, and then hasn't competed since.  Unless it comes to be that Marilyn's Smile is so out of shape Sunday that it can be visually discerned in the Post Parade, I can't imagine Marilyn's Post Time odds to be higher than 5-1; but, you never know.

Never For Money is the Morning Line Favorite; and while Never For Money appears to be a legitimate contender, I don't see her as a standout in this field.  If I anticipated Never For Money being a short priced Favorite, I would place her in the category of either being singled or tossed.  But I expect Never For Money to be more of a lukewarm Favorite, and I think I have her slotted correctly in my play.

Damn the Torpedoes is quick, and Damn the Torpedoes might appreciate the turnback in distance.  Personally, I don't think that's enough to consider Damn the Torpedoes a likely contender; but half a buck is a decent price to pay to see if this is going to be Damn the Torpedoes' lucky day.

RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 8 Kings River Knight (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Royal 'n Rando (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 J T's Watch (ML 30-1)+

# 2 Anitanewmercedes (ML 5-2)

# 3 Shotgun Express (Ire) (ML 2-1)

# 5 Derecho Dandy (ML 30-1)

# 7 House of Lords (ML 9-2)

# 9 Secret Club (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 4 Lost In Space (Ire) (No Line) and # 10 Runkerry (ML 30-1)

This was a tough one; not for determining the contenders, but for deciding how many spots to allocate for this leg on the main ticket.  In my opinion, Kings River Knight is a legitimate Favorite, worthy of consideration as a main ticket single.  Kings River Knight took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out, and I'm of the belief that if Kings River Knight replicates that effort today, then he'll be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is over.

So that being the case, why am I doubling the cost of my main ticket by adding another runner; especially a runner that was almost three lengths behind Kings River Knight at the wire last time out?  Short(ish) answer:  Royal 'n Rando's last race was his first after having been on the bench for over ninety days.  Since Royal 'n Rando shows a couple of five furlong workouts over this main track since that race, it means that he came out of that contest well.

Therefore, I see a lot of potential upside to Royal 'n Rando today.  Granted, you can't put potential on the bar and order drinks with it; but I think Royal 'n Rando has the opportunity to significantly improve over his last effort.  Combine that with the likelihood that Royal 'n Rando will be overlooked in the Late Pick Four pool due to the distance that he finished behind Kings River Knight, and I believe firmly that the cost of adding Royal 'n Rando to the main ticket is more than justified.

RACE 11 - (F) The Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Tiz an Edventure (ML 8-5)

B's

# 7 Sugar Fix (ML 8-1)

# 10 Northwest Factor (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Cowboys Daughter (ML 15-1)+
# 3 Clockstrikestwelve (ML 15-1)+

# 4 Natural Colour (GB) (ML 9-2)

# 6 Shezaghost (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 11 Le Reine's Legacy (ML 8-1)

I'm going three deep here, which includes the Morning Line 8-5 Favorite, Tiz an Edventure.  Truth be told, Tiz and Edventure's Morning Line Odds suggests that she should either be a single or a toss.  But I think I can make an exception to that guideline in this particular case due to the large(ish) size of this field, as well as the presence of several fresh faces.

Of course, the problem with adding runners to the main ticket in this type of situation is that, regardless of result, I quite likely will find myself feeling that I played this leg wrong.  That is, should Tiz an Edventure win, I'll be thinking that I should have made her a main ticket single; whereas if Tiz an Edventure should lose, lest it be by the slimmest of margins, I'll be second guessing my decision not to leave her off the main ticket.  So it is when it comes to handicapping; some decisions are going to look wrong regardless if you turn left or right, and there's no way to ever know for a certainty which course of action is the correct one to take is similar situations in the future.

RACE 12 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Papa Tiger (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Idiot's Gold (ML 7-2)

# 5 Impressive Curls (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 9 Sixtyfour G T O (ML 8-1)
# 10 Way too Hot (ML 15-1)+
# 11 Havakash Ready (ML 8-1)+

# 13 Shanagolden (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 12 Easter Tribute (ML 12-1) and # 14 The Sandy Surprise (ML 10-1)

To put it in polite terms, I disagree with this Morning Line in general, and its choice of Morning Line Favorite in particular.  Of course, when it comes down to nuts and bolts handicapping, a poorly made Morning Line is of no major concern.  Once you spot such a creature, you simply note in your mind that the public is unlikely to wager this race in that manner, and proceed accordingly.  Still, poorly made Morning Lines tend to make for interesting dinner table conversations.

As to my selections, I think I got this one right.  The presence of several in this race that are worthy of graduation by either replicating their last out performance, or just improving to the slightest degree, suggests that it will be formfully run.  That is, the presence of several solid contenders means that they all would have to regress in order for this contest to fall apart.  So if I make it this far in my play, I should be feeling confident in my selections (but, of course, never count your chickens before they've hatched).

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 2 with 8 with 8 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,7,9 with 6,8 with 7,8,10 with 1,2,5 $36.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 6,8 with 2,3,8 with 5,10,11 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 8 with 2 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5,7,9 with 8 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 4,6 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 8 with 9,13 $1.00

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/4/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Results

Race 4 - # 12 Blackened (Final Odds 5.80) - "B" Selection

Race 5 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 7 Speed Boat Beach (1.70*) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 8 Resilient (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 6 Regal Glory (0.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Tisquantum (7.90) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 5 Earls Rock (Ire) (2.70) - "B+" Selection

I thought that Speed Boat Beach wouldn't be able to keep his speed going for all eight furlongs on the turf in the Grade 3 Cecil B DeMille.  I thought wrong.  Still, that wasn't my only mistake Sunday, as I had no part at all of the winner of Race 8, Tisquantum; not even as a "C" Selection.  So, to bottom line Sunday, my day would have been much more profitable had I forsaken the multi-race wagers and just bet it all on my big ticket single, Regal Glory, winner of the Grade 1 Matriarch for the second year in a row.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of  12 / 7 / 8 / 6 / 6 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $1,002.92 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/4/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Preview

“When opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to go after it.” - Eddie Kennison

Sunday is closing day for Del Mar's I Hope You Brought a Jacket Because This Ain't The Summer Meet; so everything must go.  That includes the twenty cent jackpot Rainbow Pick Six; which, after the completion of Saturday's card, has a carryover of $513,150.  While the jackpot payout is the key attraction, the Sunday card in and of itself is worthy of attention, containing as it does a pair of Graded Stakes.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Tenacious Lady (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Cherry Chaos (ML 8-1)+

# 3 Prestigious (ML 6-1)

# 12 Blackened (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Nobe (ML 6-1)

# 6 Forest Acclamation (ML 12-1)

# 7 General Welfare (ML 8-1)

# 8 Short Journey (ML 12-1)

# 13 Sweet Hello (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Bruins Mastery (No Line); # 5 Hollywood Rumor (ML 15-1); and # 11 Miss Kaline (ML 8-1) EDIT - # 10 Lucky Vegas (ML 20-1) is also scratched

Tenacious Lady strikes me as a clear top choice; but I have enough question marks regarding Tenacious Lady to keep me from making her a single in this leg.  Cherry Chaos, dropping in for a tag for the first time, looks like a logical contender.  Prestigious and Blackened are first time starters; and for those with larger bankrolls wishing to add more runners to this leg, I would suggest that they give a good, long look to the other debut runners in this contest.  And since no one likes being knocked out in the opening leg, for this contest I've reverted to using all runners not on the big ticket as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 5 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 First Peace (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 Ransomware (ML 6-1) +

C's

# 1 Kolomio (ML 20-1)
# 4 Ah Jeez (ML 3-1)
# 5 Game Time (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ze'bul (ML 5-1)
# 7 Speed Boat Beach (ML 5-2)
# 8 Fleet Feet (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 9 Lloyds Logic (ML 20-1)

This the first of two Graded Stakes on the Sunday card; and note that both will be run over the turf course at a distance of one mile.  For this contest, juveniles will be trying to navigate two turns on the turf.  Six of the eight runners have one or fewer Wins; so it often goes in Graded Stakes for two year olds, even in December.

Personally, I think the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes belongs to one of the one Win entrants.  I'm skeptical of the Morning Line Favorite, Speed Boat Beach, being able to keep his speed going for all eight furlongs on the turf.  Still, since these are juveniles on the grass, Speed Boat Beach and all other entrants not on the main ticket, will be used as backup "C" Selections.  Oh, and note the + next to Ransomware (and Cherry Chaos in the opening leg).  I've added a B+ to the Selection process, as a (I hope) fine tuning element to my ticket construction.  For my play, a B+ will be included with the A's as a single ticket, but will not be used with the C's; at least for a few weeks, until I get a true feel for how it's working out.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Resilient (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Square Cat (ML 3-1)

# 7 Brace for Impact (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 I Know Cash Flow (ML 4-1)

# 3 Thirsty Always (ML 12-1)

# 4 Single Me Out (ML 5-1)

# 5 Holiday Arousal (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 12-1)

For those who take note of such things, Thirsty Always and Single Me Out are the only two runners in this field that will be competing with the $20k price tag on their head.

Were this a Pick 4 rather than a Pick 6, I would remove either Resilient or Square Cat off the big ticket.  However, I believe that with the additional two legs that a Pick 6 provides, that I can catch a separator in another race and just get through this one (hopefully); thus justifying the added cost (and the lessened value) to the main ticket.

RACE 7 - The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Regal Glory (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Bipartisanship (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 5 Hamwood Flier (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 8 Pizza Bianca (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 4 Gold for Kitten (ML 20-1) and # 7 Wakanaka (Ire) (ML 5-1)

Not much that I can do with this one.  Regal Glory looks to be very much the best here.  By way of disclaimer, I should mention that I also thought that Regal Glory looked to be very much the best last time out in the Breeders' Cup Mile; yet, somehow, nine other runners managed to get under the wire before Regal Glory in that event.

Anyway, while this contest drew quite well, Regal Glory does appear to be a standout; and I see no logical reason to double (or treble) the cost of my main ticket by adding runners in this leg.

RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Petruchio (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 Bright Leaf (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Street Art (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 5 Oncoming (ML 6-1)

# 8 Papale (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Candy for Carmel (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions.  For some reason, that information is often not included in the running lines of the Past Performances.

Bright Leaf looks good, but is by no means a standout.  Conversely, Papale has done reasonably well at this level, but Papale just doesn't appear to be fast enough for this bunch.  So Bright Leaf is a B+, Papale is a C, and fingers are solidly crossed.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Ready Soul (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Count of Amazonia (ML 6-1)

# 5 Earls Rock (Ire) (ML 3-1)+

# 7 Crew Dragon (ML 30-1)

# 10 Lincoln Hawk (Ire) (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 3 Flashiest (ML 12-1)

# 4 Mecklenburg (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Hudson Ridge (ML 6-1)

# 9 Zoffarelli (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Kanderel (ML 8-1)

Mecklenburg (Ire) and Ready Soul are the two in this field that are up for sale.  Ready Soul strikes me as one to use in the Win pool; especially if this is going to be your "get out" race for the weekend.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,9 with 2,3 with 7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 5,6,10 $14.40

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,3,9,12 with 2,3 with 2,7,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 1,5,6,7,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,6,7,8,13 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.00

$0.20 P6: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 6 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 1,3,4,5 with 6 with 2 with 6 $0.80

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 1,5,8 with 2 with 6 $0.60

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 5,8 with 6 $0.40

$0.20 P6: 9 with 3 with 8 with 6 with 2 with 3,4,8,9 $0.80

Total: $93.20

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:00 EST / 2:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo