2015 Breeders' Cup - Preview

It's just about Post Time for the Breeders' Cup; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark.  Good Lord willing I will be spending the next few days at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, NV, enjoying great service courtesy of Bert Cirincione, the Director of the Race and Sports Operations, along with the company of great friends.  I may be able to get a few Tweets out during that time; but I can virtually guarantee that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.

As regards advice, I recommend as always that you take advantage of the free resources offered on the internet.  Be sure to check out the usual spots that I link to in my Saturday morning tweets, as I'm sure that they will each be filled with Breeders' Cup insights.  I'll just mention a few here:

- Free DRF Formulator PPs for the Breeders' Cup Distaff as well as the Breeders' Cup Classic, along with video analysis by Dan Illman along with Mike Beer and/or Matt Bernier will be available at Drf.com's Race of the Day;

- Free Brisnet PPs for the Breeders' Cup races (along with a whole host of other contests) can be found by going to to this blog post and clicking the appropriate links by owner, trainer, or sire (for example, clicking the link for Trainer Graham Motion would lead you here, where you will find links for every race where a horse trained by Graham Motion is entered);

- If you're willing to divulge your email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2015 Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Mike Battaglia, Bob Neumeier, and others;

- Candice Hare and Derbyologist host a Breeders' Cup Round Table discussion that's available here on You Tube, along with a Breeders' Cup preview that can be found here;

- Claire Novak, Ellis Starr, and Tom LaMarra preview the Breeders' Cup Classic on Blood-Horse's That Handicapping Show on You Tube.

As for me, I just have two bits of advice to offer.  The first is to remember that, because of the nature of the Breeders' Cup races, virtually every horse entered has a legitimate chance to win.  No one is prepping in these contests; all runners will be trying their best.  Therefore, don't be afraid to take a shot on a horse that hasn't been heavily touted, and pay close attention to those runners that are being ignored on the board.

My second, and more important piece of advice, is HAVE FUN!  The Breeders' Cup is the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; these are your days, carved out of the calendar just for you.  Enjoy them!  Because, quite frankly, if you're not having fun, why bother?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Carlsbad Mountain (Final Odds 4.00) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Win the Space (5.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Pay the Fine (3.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Cass in Stone (1.90*) - "B" Selection

We started well and ended well, but the in between was not so well.  Not much to say about today other than to point out the obvious, which is that you're not going to cash a lot of tickets if you can't get any of your "A" Selections home.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 4 / 11 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $408.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Since the Breeders' Cup will be elsewhere this year, Sunday is the final day of the current meet at Santa Anita.  The Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy is on the card today; should be a good one, but since it'll be run as Race 5 it won't be a part of our play, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 American Blend (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Planet Sunshine (ML 7-2)
# 8 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 6-1)
# 10 Qatar's Pearl (ML 8-1)

C's

# 7 Captain Corrigan (ML 8-1)

# 4 Cant Do the Danse (ML 4-1) and # 6 Dekko (Arg) (ML 5-1) have been scratched.

American Blend was less than a length behind the winner at the wire while taking the Place two starts back at this class level.  Planet Sunshine took the Show against more expensive two starts back; but that's been Plant Sunshine's only in the money finish since leaving the barn of Trainer Art Sherman.

Carlsbad Mountain could be the quickest in this field out of the gate.  Qatar's Pearl missed by just a neck at this class level two starts back.  Captain Corrigan had a nice bullet work over this main track last Sunday; but the jump up the class ladder is a concern.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 China Girl Lover (ML 4-1)
# 11 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 7 Got Even (ML 9-2)

# 5 You Know I Know (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

China Girl Lover has won both of his 2015 starts, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track.  Chief of Staff missed winning at this class level last time out by just a neck.  Perhaps today will be the day that Got Even decides not to settle for a minor award.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Odin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Global Magician (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Wildcat Sailor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Circle the Moon (ML 15-1)
# 9 Smokey's Legacy (ML 8-1)

Odin took the Place at this class level the last time he charged down the hill.  Global Magician has shown the ability to compete at this level and higher; though Global Magician has also settled for more than his fair share of minor awards.

Wildcat Sailor tries the turf for the first time; his pedigree suggests that he should handle it well.  Circle the Moon drops in cheap after an extended vacation; while that's certainly a red flag, the fact that Mike Smith will be on board means that Circle the Moon's chances must be respected.  Smokey's Legacy should improve with the return to turf.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Travel Bound (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lucky Reality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Popsracer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Cass in Stone (ML 7-2)
# 9 Resistanceisfutile (ML 6-1)
# 14 Where's Bubba (ML 4-1)

C's

# 7 Da Jenius (ML 12-1)

# 3 Born to Serve (No Line) and # 13 Cape Royal (NL) are program scratches.

Travel Bound should improve with the return to dirt, along with the drop in class.  Lucky Reality may also improve with the return to dirt.  

Popsracer wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the class drop.  Cass in Stone has taken the Place in each of his last two races, both at today's class level.  Where's Bubba looks to be quickest, but with the outside draw he may have to work out a stalking trip.

Resistanceisfutile took the Show at this class level last time out.  Da Jenius drops in for a tag for the first time in his career.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,8,10 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 4,5,6,8,9,14 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 4,6,9 with 5,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 7 $2.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:43 EDT / 3:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/24/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Jury (Final Odds 2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Twilight Derby - # 3 Om (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Big Bear - # 5 Dortmund (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Canada (3.90) - "B" Selection

We spread pretty wide in the first two legs in an effort to beat the chalk; so when the Favorites won each of those contests by daylight, we were left with a pretty large ticket promising some pretty small payouts.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Mr. Roary (19.80) - $ 119.85 Finish: 7th
# 3 Opening Roads (26.00) - $168.80 Finish: 9th
# 5 Strong Values (7.00) - $70.15 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Unapologetic (10.30) - $80.65 Finish: 6th
# 8 Quality Line (12.00) - $109.70 Finish: 5th
# 9 Above Board (12.30) - $81.05 Finish: 10th
# 10 British Bulldog (2.70*) - $37.05 Finish: 8th
# 11 Aztec Warrior (4.70) - $36.45 Finish: 4th

Since British Bulldog was our "A" Selection, we would have had his payout trebled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket.

But all that is what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 3 / 5 / 7  which paid $41.15 for a fifty cent wager.  As our investment was $57.00, we cash at a loss.  Which, while significantly preferable to not cashing at all, was not our goal when we placed our wagers.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/24/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

After a one week excursion to the East, our action returns to the left coast, just in time for the final weekend of the Santa Anita Fall Meet.  The featured event Saturday is the former Oak Tree Derby, now known as The Twilight Derby; it's Race 7 on the card, so we'll be giving it a close look as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Iron Rob (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Jury (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Jes Jaa (ML 5-1)
# 2 Arabian Leopard (ML 7-2)
# 3 Police Escort (ML 8-1)
# 5 Papa Papa Papa (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oppidum (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Xanto (ML 15-1)
# 7 Nothingelsematters (ML 6-1)

Iron Rob has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; in fact, either of Iron Rob's Beyers from his past two races would be career bests for anyone else in this field.

So why the big spread?  Well, while Iron Rob's Beyers stand above the rest of the field, they are a significant distance away from par for this class of competition.  In addition, Iron Rob has finished in the Trifecta only once in his four race career; and that was two starts back, when he was a well beaten second, finishing close to a half dozen lengths behind the winner.

So Iron Rob has yet to earn a Beyer Speed Figure close to par, has finished out of the money in three of his four career starts, and, because he has already made four starts, does not appear to be a candidate to make a significant move forward.  For what he's done so far combined with what should be good odds Iron Rob merits being an "A" Selection; but the unlikelihood of Iron Rob improving significantly over his past efforts means that we need to cover ourselves here with a wide spread.

Jury is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano.  The descendants of Jury's sire, Tale of the Cat, win more than their fair share of debut efforts.

Jes Jaa and Police Escort are a pair of first time starters trained by John Sadler and Bob Baffert respectively.  Jes Jaa and Police Escort are both by sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

Arabian Leopard, trained by Bob Baffert, has disappointed badly as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts.  Still, Arabian Leopard merits another chance based upon the troubled trips he has received.  

Papa Papa Papa, trained by Mark Glatt, and Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, are each making their second career start after having shown good early speed in their respective debuts.  Xanto and Nothingelsematters are on the ticket because they're the only two runners left in the field who aren't "A" or "B" Selections; so now we'e got all bases covered.

RACE 7 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Om (ML 9-5)

B's

# 2 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 1 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Soul Driver (ML 9-2)

# 4 Ground Rules (ML 6-1) and # 7 Daddy D T (ML 12-1) have been scratched.

Om, winner of the Del Mar Derby last time out, probably won't get a trip as smooth as he did in that event; but Om looks to be at the top of his game, so he may not need it.  Mister Brightside (Ire) makes his North American debut after winning a pair of Handicap Stakes at Newmarket.  Mister Brightside showed good early foot in his contests in Great Britain; those who do so tend to do well in North America.  Conversely, Hunt (Ire) and Soul Driver, look to be the ones who will be running best late if it should all fall apart on the front end.

RACE 8 - The Big Bear $70k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Dortmund (ML 4-5)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Point Piper (ML 4-1)

# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 9-2) has been scratched.

Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, makes his first start after finishing fourth in The Preakness back in May.  Dortmund's works were far from sharp up to and including the five furlongs he put in on September 25; however, after skipping a week, Dortmund came back to scorch the morning track with a pair of bullets.

Dortmund is the clear class of this field, and has shown the ability in the past to win off just works.  On the other hand, this will be Dortmund's first time facing older horses.  It's also fair to wonder just how hard Dortmund will be ridden today, as his connections certainly didn't put him back into training just to win a $70k listed stake.

So for those reasons, it seems prudent to have a backup on the ticket.  If Dortmund should fail to fire, Point Piper, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the best of the rest.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 British Bulldog (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Canada (ML 4-1)
# 8 Quality Line (ML 10-1)
# 9 Above Board (ML 8-1)
# 11 Aztec Warrior (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 12-1)
# 3 Opening Roads (ML 15-1)

British Bulldog took the Place at this class level at today's distance in his debut last time out, though he seemed to have had some difficulty making it the full eight furlongs.

Strong Values, Unapologetic, and Canada, each have two career starts, and each appears capable of making a significant move forward.  Quality Line tries turf for the first time; if his early speed from the main track carries over, Quality Line could really smoke the grass today.

Above Board, trained by Bob Baffert, and Aztec Warrior, trained by Doug O'Neill and sired by Kitten's Joy, are a pair of first time starters who look to be ready to run.  Mr. Roary and Opening Roads are another pair of debut runners who could find themselves in the Winner's Circle today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 with 2,3 with 5 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $49.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 5 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 1,6 with 5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 3 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 1,3 $2.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/18/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 9 Lewis Bay (Final Odds 1.35*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Tammy the Torpedo (1.45*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Joking (2.80) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Catapult (3.70) - "B" Selection

We were right to be suspicious of the chances of # 2 Grand Bili (0.60*) in Race 9, who wound up taking the Place.  Unfortunately, we were suspicious with the wrong back up runners, as we had no part of the winner in that contest; and therefore, for the second day in a row, found ourselves holding a ticket with just three out of four winners.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 1 / 5 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $177.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/18/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

In an interesting twist on the weather front, Sunday is forecast to be dry in New York, while late afternoon showers are predicted for Southern California.  So we're going to finish the weekend as we began, by taking a run at The Late Pick Four at Belmont Park.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Wicked One (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 2 Thundering Sky (ML 15-1)
# 3 Verve's Tale (ML 151)
# 9 Lewis Bay (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Estelle / #1A Spinstress (ML 5-1)

Wicked One showed good early interest in her debut last time out.  Wicked One is trained by Mark Casse, who tends to do quite well with runners making their second attempt to graduate.  Thundering Sky and Verve's Tale are by a pair of stallions (Sky Mesa and Tale of Ekati, respectively) whose offspring tend to do well at first asking.  

Lewis Bay just missed graduating in her debut last time out; but that was on an off track, which her breeding suggests she should handle well; so Lewis Bay may not move forward with the switch to a non-wet surface.  Spinstress is sired by Hard Spun, whose progeny seem to win more than their fair share at the seven furlong distance.

RACE  8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A's

# 1 Tammy the Torpedo (ML 3-1)
# 8 Morning Star (ML 8-1)

B's

# 4 Achnaha (ML 10-1)
# 5 Ortiga (Ire) (ML 12-1)

C's

# 9 Gigi's Kitten (ML 7-2)
# 12 Coming Attraction (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 2 Vale Ridge (ML 50-1) and # 11 Tennessee Whiskey (ML 15-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Love's Illusion (ML 20-1) nor # 14 De Marquee (ML 30-1).  And on a beautiful day like today, the Main Track Onlies, # 15 Piccolo Flats (ML 3-1) and # 16 Jules N Rome (ML 2-1), get the afternoon off.

Tammy the Torpedo returns to action after a one year absence for Trainer Chad Brown, who wins with close to 30% of those coming back from an extended vacation.  Morning Star has taken the Place in three of her last four starts at this class level, and may find herself with a good stalking trip behind # 7 Elementsofharmony (ML 20-1).

Achnaha (Ire) has been within two lengths of the winner at the wire at this class level in each of her last two starts.  Ortiga (Ire) took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Ortiga also showed good early speed in her starts in Ireland; it would be very helpful to her cause if Ortiga could return to that running style here today.

Gigi's Kitten got away with very soft fractions when she broke her maiden last time out; still, her connections and her bloodlines warrant respect here.  Coming Attraction would normally receive strong consideration as an "A" Selection in a field of this quality; but I feel that the far outside post may be too great a handicap for her to overcome in this course configuration.

RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Grand Bili (ML 3-5)

B’s

# 1 Nubin Ridge (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Second City (ML 12-1)
# 7 Songa (ML 8-1)

# 6 Padre Graz (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Grand Bili drops into the Optional Claiming ranks from Graded Stakes company after failing to hit the board in either of his last two starts.  If Grand Bili returns to the form that he displayed this Summer then he'll win easily here.  However, if Grand Bili runs as he did last time out at Parx, well, he may still win, but it'll be a much closer affair.

Nubin Ridge defeated open $50k Claimers last time out, with Second City just a head behind.  Nubin Ridge has shown a steadily improving form since joining the barn of Trainer Chris Englehart this past Summer.  Songa has shown good tactical speed (albeit against cheaper) and could get a nice stalking trip here.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course

A’s

# 4 Giant Run (ML 8-1)
# 10 War Order (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Snag (ML 5-1)
# 9 Catapult (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Vulcan's Forge (ML 20-1)
# 11 Oscar Mike (ML 6-1)

Giant Run took the Place on the dirt at this class level last time out.  Since Giant Run is by Giant's Causeway, it's fair to presume that his form will hold with the switch to the turf.  

War Order has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two prior career starts at this class level.  Snag, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a first time starter sired by Harlan's Holiday, whose get tend to do rather well in their initial career tries.  Catapult is a first time starter by Kitten's Joy, and everyone knows that those cats are tough on the grass.

Vulcan's Forge showed some late interest in his debut last time out.  Oscar Mike tries two turns for the first time after taking the Show at this class level in each of his two prior career starts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 2 with 4,10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,9 with 1,4,5,8 with 1,2 with 3,4,9,10 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 2 with 4,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 9,12 with 2 with 4,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 3,7 with 4,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 2 with 6,11 $2.00

Total: $78.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/17/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 3 All Over Me (Final Odds 3.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 S'maverlous (1.65*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Athenia - # 1 Stellar Path (Fr) (5.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Jan's Reserve (4.70) - "B" Selection

The opening leg of the sequence saw our "A" Selection, # 1 Jax Heritage (2.20*) receive a brutal trip, being blocked and steadied multiple times on his way to a fourth place finish.  And that was the difference between us cashing or trashing, as we had the other three winners on our big ticket.  But that's the chance you take when you play a turf horse on the rail who doesn't have good early speed.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  3 / 9 / 1 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $518.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/17/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

Shaking it up a bit this Saturday (well, perhaps more than a bit) as we're moving our action from one coast to another.  I expect this to be a one-off due to scheduling concerns forcing me to get my playing in during the earlier part of the day.  But hopefully that's going to work to our advantage, as we can capitalize on what projects to be a beautiful autumn day in New York City.  So with that, let's take a run Saturday at Belmont Park's Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A's

# 1 Jax Heritage (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 12 Sonnyandpally (ML 10-1)

C's

# 9 Harbor King (ML 10-1)

# 13 He Has Charm (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List, and will therefore have more time to prepare for tonight's opening game of the NLDS.

Jax Heritage has only finished out of the Trifecta twice in his eight career starts, and in each of those two races Jax Heritage had problems with the break.  Sonnyandpally's form over his past half dozen contests looks much, much better when you toss the two times that he tried to go nine furlongs.

Because he relies on his early speed, Harbor King probably won't appreciate the move away from the inner turf course.  But Harbor King should be well positioned here, and will perhaps have something left for the drive.

RACE  8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 9 S'maverlous (ML 4-1)

B's

# 11 Longfor the City (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Saratoga Wildcat (ML 15-1)

# 8 Furyofthenorsemen (ML 12-1)

# 2 Power Nap (ML 30-1) has been scratched.

If the Beyer Speed Figures are to be believed, then S'maverlous should have no problems today, as the numbers that he has earned over his last several starts comfortably exceed those earned by his rivals.  Longfor the City took the Show at this class level last time out, and has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over his last few races.

Saratoga Wildcat projects to be the early inside speed, so if the rail is live today he should be the one best positioned to take advantage of it.  Furyofthenorsemen graduated on a fast dirt track last year, so it's reasonable to expect his recent turf form, which has shown him to be competitive at this class level, to carry over onto the main track.

RACE 9 - (F) The Athenia (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A’s

# 10 Coffee Clique (ML 7-2)

# 13 Lady Lara (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Stellar Path (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 2 Speed Seeker (ML 20-1)

# 3 A Little Bit Sassy (ML 12-1)

# 9 Tango Time (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 12 Faufiler (Ire) (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Perhaps this one isn't as complicated as I'm making it out to be; but it looks to me as if the best runners here have all drawn the outside Post Positions, which is not a desirable place to be in contests starting on the turn on the inner turf course.

Coffee Clique and Lady Lara are both solid Graded Stakes competitors, and appear to be the best two entrants in this event.  Normally we would just stop right there and move onto analyzing the next race; but as mentioned above, the outside draw each received is a concern; so it seems prudent to spread here.

Stellar Path (Fr) has finished in the Superfecta in each of her four North American starts.  Speed Seeker projects to be the one setting the early fractions, and her Place finish in the Lady Baltimore suggests that she could steal this one on the front end.  A Little Bit Sassy has been showing steady improvement in each of her 2015 starts.

Tango Time (Ire) showed an exceptional closing kick his last time out; but this is perhaps not the best venue for her to show how well she can run late.  Faufiler (Ire) makes her North American debut after winning a pair of stakes in France.

RACE 10 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 2 Light the Night (ML 3-1)

# 11 War of Ideas (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Jan's Reserve (ML 6-1)

# 10 Publishanditerate (ML 12-1)

C's

# 5 Armando Big (ML 15-1)

# 8 Wave Warrior (ML 20-1) has been scratched.  In addition, none of the Also Eligibles (# 13 Snag (ML 4-1); # 14 Abiding Star (ML 15-1); # 15 Late Breaking News (ML 30-1); # 16 Midnight Surfer (ML 6-1)) draw in.

Light the Night has finished in the money at this class level on the grass in each of his two prior career starts.  War of Ideas is a first time starter for Trainer Chad Brown, who does quite well with such.

Jan's Reserve earned this field's career best Beyer Speed Figure the last time he ran without the hood.  Publishanditerate debuts for Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who wins with about a quarter of the first time starters that he sends out.  Armando Big (ML 15-1) is making his second career start and his turf debut, and should improve off his initial effort.  EDIT - This is incorrect, as Armando Big's debut was on turf.  My apologies for the error. - Jimbo

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 9 with 10,13 with 2,11 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,12 with 9,11 with 1,2,3,9,10,12,13 with 2,4,10,11 $56.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 9 with 9 with 10,13 with 2,11 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,8 with 10,13 with 2,11 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 9 with 10,13 with 5 $1.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/11/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 6 Greyson and John (Final Odds 2.00*) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 7 Aloha Ke Akua (2.80) - "C" Selection
Race 3 - # 7 Lindeza (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 4 - # 7 Riri (4.20) - "B" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Ladies Man (0.90*) - "A" Selection

For the record, # 2 Flexible Ethics (3.20) crossed the wire first in Race 2, but was disqualified and placed fifth.

Needless to say, you're not going to win a lot of Pick Five plays where you only get one of your "A" Selections home.  On the other hand, one of our two "A" selections in the opening leg, # 5 Unbridled Rocket (2.30) just missed catching the winner at the wire.  Had Unbridled Rocket won that photo we would have frustratingly had all the winners, without having them all on any one ticket.  So today was probably best described as a day to pick your poison.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five  sequence of  6 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $1,294.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/11/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

"Sometimes it's the smallest decisions that can change your life forever." - Keri Russell

Going to change things up a bit today, and shift my action from the back portion of the Santa Anita card to the front.  I guess I'm just in the mood for some Maiden races, as four of the first five contests on the program are for non-winners of one.  So with that, let's take a run at The Pick Five at The Great Race Place.

RACE 1 - Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Kelly With a Twist (Morning Line 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled Rocket (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Rincon (ML 12-1)

Kelly With a Twist showed good early speed last time out in what was his first foray into the maiden claiming ranks.  Unbridled Rocket has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Kelly With a Twist and Unbridled Rocket are both making their first starts since having undergone the ultimate equipment change.  Rincon has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his four career starts.

RACE 2 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Myrna Lou (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Foxy Lover (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fab Four Ever (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Flexible Ethics (ML 6-1)
# 6 Oleanderpolarbear (ML 8-1)
# 7 Aloha Ke Akua (ML 4-1)

# 4 Elusive Mistress (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Myrna Lou took the Place last time out at this class level, and was victorious in her only prior try over this main track.

Foxy Lover and Fab Four Ever are tied for the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  So why are neither one an "A" Selection?  Well, Foxy Lover was claimed in that last contest, and now goes for a barn that is oh-for-twenty when sending out a runner the first time off a claim.  As for Fab Four Ever, she is making a pretty significant move up the class ladder; for while Fab Four Ever was in for a higher price tag in her last race ($16k) that contest was limited to runners who had not yet won two races in their careers; while this claiming event is without conditions.

Oleanderpolarbear could be quickest early.  Aloha Ke Akua goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins with nearly a third of such.  Flexible Ethics is on the ticket because I won't use "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race wager.

RACE 3 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Unbridled Summer (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Lindeza (ML 4-1)

Unbridled Summer has taken the Place at this class level in each of her two prior career starts.  Lindeza is a first time starter sired by Harlan's Holiday, whose progeny tend to do well in their first attempts.

RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Lemon Drop Sis (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Dreamarcher (ML 4-1)
# 7 Riri (ML 5-1)
# 9 Winemenow (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Martha's Kid (ML 50-1)

The Also Eligibles (# 12 Perfect Drama (ML 6-1); # 13 Last Resort (ML 9-2); # 14 Friulian (ML 5-1)) get to stay in the barn and argue about whether to watch the NFL games or the MLB playoffs.

Lemon Drop Sis showed good early speed on the dirt in her debut last time out.  Dreamarcher took the Show in her debut at this class level last time out.  Riri is a first time starter sired by Speightstown, whose offspring tend to do well in their first attempts and when competing on grass.

Winemenow is also from a sire whose offspring do rather well at first asking.  Martha's Kid showed absolutely nothing in her debut on dirt last time out; but, as a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, it's fair to expect her to improve with the move to the turf.

RACE 5 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Xerxes (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ladies Man (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Son of Eleanor (ML 8-1)
# 8 Warren My Boy (ML 4-1)

C's

# 12 Spirit World (ML 12-1)

Xerxes took the Show at this class level last time out, and could be the quickest out of the gate in this field.  Ladies Man missed by less than a length at this class level in each of his last two races.

Son of Eleanor was much improved last time out, and could win today with a similar effort.  Warren My Boy's form looks a lot better if you toss that one try around two turns.  First time starter Spirit World is out of Rita Rucker, who has produced multiple winners, including multiple stakes winner Private World; but the fact that Spirit World is being offered for sale in his debut for just one third of what it cost for him to be sired can't be viewed as a positive.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 2,6,7,9 with 4,5,7,8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 1 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 2,6,7 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 7 with 6 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 3 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 12 $1.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Surfer Girl - # 2 Stays in Vegas (Final Odds 7.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Dr. Dorr (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Brimstoned (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Incline Village (25.10) - No Selection

We caught "A's" in the first three legs, so it's understandable that we were confident regarding our chances of cashing heading into the finale.  But we had no part whatsoever of Incline Village.  Should we have?  

Well, Incline Village was dropping in for a tag for the first time since last September.  But in fairness to us (and everyone else, for that matter, as he did leave the gate at double his Morning Line odds) Incline Village's Beyer Speed Figures were light compared to the shorter priced runners in the field.  And while Incline Village was dropping in class, it's not like he was all that competitive at the higher levels.  Indeed, prior to today he had only two finishes in the past year in the Exacta, and both those came vs. N2L company.

On the other hand, we also had no part of the Place finisher in the finale, # 2 Second Proposal (11.50).  So matter what Incline Village did or didn't do, we weren't cashing today.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 5 Toledo Eddie (9.30) - $584.45 Finish: 8th
# 6 Giant Ego (6.90) - $256.50 Finish: 4th
# 10 Turnover (1.20*) - $118.75 Finish: 6th (Dead Heat)
# 11 Ain't No Other (15.10) - $393.15 Finish: 3rd

Since Toledo Eddie and Turnover were our "A" Selections, we would have had their payouts tripled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket.

But such was not to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  2 / 6 / 5 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $1,035.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Kids on the grass comprise today's featured events at Santa Anita.  Two year old males will be competing on the turf in The Zuma Beach, which goes as Race 5; while the juvenile fillies get their chance to play on the lawn in The Surfer Girl.  The latter is carded as Race 7, so we'll be taking a look at it below. as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Stays in Vegas (Morning Line 8-1)
# 5 Jakaby Jade (GB) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Aguacate (ML 20-1)
# 7 Lucky Folie (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Mirage (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 10 One Last Shot (ML 6-1)

Stays in Vegas, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, makes her turf debut after winning a pair of stakes upstate on the dirt.  Jakaby Jade (GB), trained by Doug O'Neill, won the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf last month her North American debut.  

Aguacate, while still a maiden, showed a good closing kick last time out in her turf debut.  Lucky Folie, sired by Distorted Humor, tries grass for the first time after earning this field's best career Beyer Speed Figure in her debut last time out.

Mirage (Ire), trained by Simon Callaghan, makes her North American debut after closing well to win her initial try.  One Last Shot, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place behind Jakaby Jade last time out in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Iron Rob (ML 8-1)

# 6 Dr. Dorr (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Let's Meet in Rio (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Shut the Box (ML 15-1)

# 2 Ski Utah (ML 30-1) and # 13 Drefong (ML 6-1) are program scratches.  # 11 Miner's Light (ML 5-2) has also been scratched.

Iron Rob took the Place at this class level last time out.  Iron Rob looks to be the quickest of the two experienced runners in this field.  The other experienced runner, Shut the Box, didn't show much in his debut last time, but he may show more early interest this time as he adds blinkers and draws the rail.

Let's Meet in Rio and Dr. Dorr are a pair of first time starters trained by Bob Baffert.  I give the edge to Dr. Dorr due to his quicker workouts and the greater success enjoyed by the progeny of his sire (Lookin At Lucky) in their debuts compared with the descents of Flatter, the sire of Let's Meet in Rio.

RACE 9 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Brimstoned (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 10 Avanti Bello (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Storm Comin Thru (ML 6-1)

# 9 Prince Charmant (ML 12-1)

Brimstoned, winner of his last two contests by a combined seventeen lengths, enters this race with the field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure.  Avanti Bello took the Show in the state bred only E.B. Johnston Stakes last time out.

Storm Comin Thru has been earning steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over his last three races.  Prince Charmant has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races.

RACE 10 - Clm $32k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Toledo Eddie (ML 12-1)

# 10 Turnover (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 6 Giant Ego (ML 6-1)

C's

# 11 Ain't No Other (ML 6-1)

# 7 Pure Loyalty (ML 12-1) is a program scratch.

Toledo Eddie took the Place against more expensive back in June, the last time that he charged down the hill.  Turnover took the Place in his turf debut last time out against more expensive.

Giant Ego took the Place against more expensive last time out.  Ain't No Other missed by less than a length against more expensive last time out, albeit for different connections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 5,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,7 with 4,5,6 with 5,10 with 5,6,10 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 5,6 with 5 with 5,10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 1 with 5 with 5,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 5,6 with 1,9 with 5,10 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 11 $2.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:14 EDT / 4:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/3/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 10 Just Kidding (Final Odds 14.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship - # 6 Wild Dude (2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Swingtime - # 5 Alexis Tangier (4.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Story to Tell (11.20) - No Selection

The sequence ended as it began, with us losing a tight one; as the Opening Leg saw # 2 Got Even (9.80) hit the Finish Line a head too late, while one of our three "A" Selections in the finale, # 13 Great Lou (1.70*) gained the lead in the stretch only to hand it right back to his rival in the shadow of the wire.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  10 / 6 / 5 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $1,935.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/3/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Super Saturday Part II across North American, with a final round of Graded Stakes taking place in preparation of the upcoming Breeders' Cup.  Out in SoCal the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship is the featured event.  It goes as Race 8 on the card, and will be examined below, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Tiz Dynamic (Morning Line 15-1)
# 9 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Big Tire (ML 4-1)
# 2 Got Even (ML 6-1)
# 5 Tried and True (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Skip Tony (ML 8-1)

# 11 Spud Spivens (ML 20-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

The conditions limit this contest to runners which:

1) Have never won $10k other than maiden, claiming, or starter; OR

2) Have never won two races; OR

3) Will run for a claiming price of $40k.

For the record, the only two going for a tag are Tiz Dynamic and Skip Tony.

Only one of Tiz Dynamic's ten races so far in 2015 has been on a fast dirt track; and that one just happens to be the race where Tiz Dynamic earned his best Beyer Speed Figure of this year, a number which is probably good enough to get the job done today.  Chief of Staff, one of two in this contest trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over his last three races.

Big Tire has proven to be competitive at this approximate class level, though he does settle for a great many minor awards.  Got Even looks to be the speed of the speed here.  Tried and True could improve with the return to dirt.  Skip Tony, the "other" Hollendorfer, took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.

RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Masochistic (ML 9-5)

# 6 Wild Dude (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Glacken Too (ML 20-1)

# 4 Kobe's Back (ML 8-1)

# 5 Distinctiv Passion (ML 6-1)

# 1 San Onofre (ML 6-1) is a program scratch.  # 7 Indexical (ML 20-1) and # 8 Gimmie Da Lute (ML 3-1) have also been scratched.

In the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar in July, Wild Dude crossed the wire first with Masochistic taking the Place.  In the Grade 1 Triple Bend run over this main track back in June, it was Masochistic getting the Win with Wild Dude taking the Show.  These appear to be the classiest two runners in this field, and I don't see much to choose from between the two.

Distinctiv Passion's early speed may take him closer to the wire today than it did in The Bing Crosby; his workout on 9/27 suggests that he'll be ready to fly today.  Kobe's Back looks to be the one who will be running best late.  Glacken Too, trained by Phil D'Amato, is on the ticket because I won't let myself use "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race sequence.

RACE 9 - [R] (F) The Swingtime $70k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Gender Agenda (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Alexis Tangier (ML 4-1)

C's

# 9 Intoxicating Move (ML 12-1)

# 11 Colonel Joan (ML 15-1) is a program scratch.

This one is restricted to fillies and mares which have not won a stakes at eight furlongs or greater for more than $60k in 2015, excluding state bred only stakes.

Gender Agenda (GB) enters this contest with a two race winning streak.  While those two victories came with Gender Agenda up near the pace, it was her late kick that got the job done in both those races.

Alexis Tangier should appreciate the class relief.  Intoxicating Move has finished in the Trifecta eight of the ten times that she's competed on this turf course.

RACE 10 - Clm $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Krsto Skye (ML 15-1)

# 3 Mr. Jay D (ML 4-1)

# 13 Great Lou (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 9 Henry's Holiday (ML 6-1)

# 12 Where Y'at Joe Joe (ML 8-1)

C's

None

# 8 Exemplar (ML 30-1) is a program scratch.

Krsto Skye looked good against ungraded stakes company in his one prior try on a fast dirt track, finishing just behind Mr. Jay D.  I'm presuming that Mr. Jay D just didn't like the grass his last time out.  Great Lou, four-for-five in his career on the Santa Anita main track, goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

Henry's Holiday took the Place the last time that he competed at today's class level.  Where Y'at Joe Joe has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,9 with 2,6 with 3 with 2,3,13 $12.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,9 with 2,6 with 3,5 with 2,3,9,12,13 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,6 with 3 with 2,3,13 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3,4,5 with 3 with 2,3,13 $9.00

$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 2,6 with 9 with 2,3,13 $6.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:12 EDT / 4:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo