Race 7 - # 4 Don't Stalk Me (Final Odds 1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Clocker's Corner - # 7 Conquest Tsunami (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Herunbridledpower (9.20) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Mesut (11.30) - "C" Selection
Jockey Giovanni Franco was on board the two winners that I did not have on the big ticket, as well as being on board my "A" Selection in the opening leg that finished fourth (# 4 J T's A. T. M. (3.90)). So had I better timed my Franco usage I would have collected; but instead, Sunday was a day for me to contribute.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 7 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $737.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 27, 2019
1/27/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Clocker's Corner Stakes, named for The Clockers' Corner at Santa Anita, is Sunday's featured race in Southern California. It's one of two contests in the final four races on the card scheduled to be contested over the downhill turf course. I'll be taking a look at both events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 J T's A. T. M. (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Treasure Hunter (ML 12-1)
# 4 Don't Stalk Me (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Big Shanty (ML 5-2)
# 3 My Heart Awakens (ML 20-1)
# 6 Joe Jackson (ML 3-1)
# 7 Honeymoonz Over (ML 7-2)
J T's A. T. M. won at this level last time out, and there's no good reason to suspect that he can't do it again. The change in barn may help Treasure Hunter rebound off his poor showing last time out. Don't Stalk Me re-joins the barn of Trainer Doug O'Neill, for who he's won in the past. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 Conquest Tsunami (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Secretary At War (ML 4-1)
# 5 Hunt (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 9 Calculator (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Regal Born (ML 30-1)
# 2 Cistron (ML 12-1)
# 3 Eddie Haskell (ML 4-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)
# 8 Blended Citizen (ML 12-1)
The restriction on this stakes is that an entrant cannot have won a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2018.
Secretary At War may do well in his first try navigating the Santa Anita hill. Conquest Tsunami looks to be in best form. Hunt (Ire) is too classy to leave off the big ticket; though I suspect that Hunt's best days are behind him. Calculator won last year's running of this event; an angle I probably overuse. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $10k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Duranga (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 9 Conquest Flatterme (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 She Began Again (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lucky Student (ML 3-1)
# 3 Magicalchic (ML 50-1)
# 5 Dancing Sunset (ML 20-1)
# 6 Eskenforadrink (ML 10-1)
# 7 Todos Santos (ML 8-1)
# 8 Herunbridledpower (ML 6-1)
# 10 Brookes All Mine (ML 6-1)
Duranga took the Show against more expensive last time out, and Duranga could benefit from the cutback in distance. Conquest Flatterme is getting significant class relief here, as she is being priced to sell. The backup "C" Selections are all other entrants.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 9 Shadow Sphinx (ML 4-1)
B's
# 5 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 6 Paddock Pick (ML 6-1)
# 11 Colosi (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 What'sontheagenda (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mesut (ML 8-1)
# 4 Montmartre (ML 10-1)
# 7 Erotic (ML 6-1)
# 8 Georgie Hyphen (Ire)
# 10 North County Guy (ML 7-2)
# 12 Placido (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Extrordinary Jerry (ML 15-1)
Shadow Spinx closed well to win in his first try charging down the hill last time out. Jungle Warfare and Paddock Pick filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Colosi fits well here with the contenders; though Colosi may need a race off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 7 with 4 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5 with 4,5,7,9 with 4,9 with 5,6,9,11 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,7 with 7 with 4 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,6,8 with 4 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 4 with 1,3,4,7,8,10,12 $3.50
Total: $61.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 J T's A. T. M. (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Treasure Hunter (ML 12-1)
# 4 Don't Stalk Me (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Big Shanty (ML 5-2)
# 3 My Heart Awakens (ML 20-1)
# 6 Joe Jackson (ML 3-1)
# 7 Honeymoonz Over (ML 7-2)
J T's A. T. M. won at this level last time out, and there's no good reason to suspect that he can't do it again. The change in barn may help Treasure Hunter rebound off his poor showing last time out. Don't Stalk Me re-joins the barn of Trainer Doug O'Neill, for who he's won in the past. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 Conquest Tsunami (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Secretary At War (ML 4-1)
# 5 Hunt (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 9 Calculator (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Regal Born (ML 30-1)
# 2 Cistron (ML 12-1)
# 3 Eddie Haskell (ML 4-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)
# 8 Blended Citizen (ML 12-1)
The restriction on this stakes is that an entrant cannot have won a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2018.
Secretary At War may do well in his first try navigating the Santa Anita hill. Conquest Tsunami looks to be in best form. Hunt (Ire) is too classy to leave off the big ticket; though I suspect that Hunt's best days are behind him. Calculator won last year's running of this event; an angle I probably overuse. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $10k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Duranga (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 9 Conquest Flatterme (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 She Began Again (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lucky Student (ML 3-1)
# 3 Magicalchic (ML 50-1)
# 5 Dancing Sunset (ML 20-1)
# 6 Eskenforadrink (ML 10-1)
# 7 Todos Santos (ML 8-1)
# 8 Herunbridledpower (ML 6-1)
# 10 Brookes All Mine (ML 6-1)
Duranga took the Show against more expensive last time out, and Duranga could benefit from the cutback in distance. Conquest Flatterme is getting significant class relief here, as she is being priced to sell. The backup "C" Selections are all other entrants.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 9 Shadow Sphinx (ML 4-1)
B's
# 5 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 6 Paddock Pick (ML 6-1)
# 11 Colosi (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 What'sontheagenda (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mesut (ML 8-1)
# 4 Montmartre (ML 10-1)
# 7 Erotic (ML 6-1)
# 8 Georgie Hyphen (Ire)
# 10 North County Guy (ML 7-2)
# 12 Placido (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Extrordinary Jerry (ML 15-1)
Shadow Spinx closed well to win in his first try charging down the hill last time out. Jungle Warfare and Paddock Pick filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Colosi fits well here with the contenders; though Colosi may need a race off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 7 with 4 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5 with 4,5,7,9 with 4,9 with 5,6,9,11 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,7 with 7 with 4 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,6,8 with 4 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 4 with 1,3,4,7,8,10,12 $3.50
Total: $61.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 19, 2019
1/19/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 7 Dessman (Final Odds 0.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Lil Milo (9.60) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Palos Verdes - # 7 Roy H (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Dearborn (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Using more than half the field in the second leg proved to be insufficient, as I still couldn't find the winner. Perhaps I should have given greater consideration to using Lil Milo in his turf debut based upon his breeding. Or perhaps I should have made the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite my "A" Selection in the opening leg. Doing either one of those things would have allowed me to collect. Instead I did neither, which made Saturday a day for me to contribute.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 8 / 7 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $116.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 8 Lil Milo (9.60) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Palos Verdes - # 7 Roy H (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Dearborn (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Using more than half the field in the second leg proved to be insufficient, as I still couldn't find the winner. Perhaps I should have given greater consideration to using Lil Milo in his turf debut based upon his breeding. Or perhaps I should have made the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite my "A" Selection in the opening leg. Doing either one of those things would have allowed me to collect. Instead I did neither, which made Saturday a day for me to contribute.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 8 / 7 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $116.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/19/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
“All progress is precarious, and the solution of one problem brings us face to face with another problem.” - Martin Luther King Jr.
As I type this, I'm trusting that the Arcadia weather will be dry enough Saturday for the down the hill races to remain on the grass. This may prove to be overly optimistic, as Friday's turf contests were moved to the main track, while Thursday's races were canceled in total; but we'll see how it plays out. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Norski (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Jumpin Thru Hoops (ML 5-1)
# 6 Scalper (ML 3-1)
# 7 Dessman (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)
# 5 Taos (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Adare (ML 8-1)
Norski is the only runner in this contest to have finished in the Trifecta, and he's done it twice. Jumpin Thru Hoops showed good early speed in his debut last time out.
Dessman, trained by Bob Baffert, is a first time starter that could be live; especially in a race with no clear standout. Scalper, also trained by Bob Baffert, could move forward in his second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 More Honor (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Cats Blame (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tigerbeach (ML 3-1)
# 5 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
# 9 Bedeviled (ML 12-1)
# 10 Lauren's Ladd (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Hot Perfection (ML 20-1)
# 3 Fortune of War (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Street to Indy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lil Milo (ML 12-1)
In addition to having started for a claiming price of $50k or less, entry here is limited to only those runners which have never won a state bred allowance or a race other than maiden or claiming. Which seems redundant to me; because if it's limited to runners which have only won maiden or claiming contests, then of course winners of a state bred allowance are not allowed. Anyway, the most important thing to note in these conditions is that there is no lifetime Win restriction for entry.
More Honor has finished in the Exacta every time that he has charged down the hill. Cats Blame is trained by Steve Knapp, whose runners typically need a race when returning from an approximate three month layoff. But Cats Blame's bullet work of 12/15 suggests that he may be ready to fire.
Tigerbeach took the Place at this class level last time out. Jimmy Chila could improve moving from the flats to the hill. Bedeviled goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such. Lauren's Ladd could improve returning to the turf. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Roy H (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
As I type this, I'm trusting that the Arcadia weather will be dry enough Saturday for the down the hill races to remain on the grass. This may prove to be overly optimistic, as Friday's turf contests were moved to the main track, while Thursday's races were canceled in total; but we'll see how it plays out. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Norski (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Jumpin Thru Hoops (ML 5-1)
# 6 Scalper (ML 3-1)
# 7 Dessman (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)
# 5 Taos (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Adare (ML 8-1)
Norski is the only runner in this contest to have finished in the Trifecta, and he's done it twice. Jumpin Thru Hoops showed good early speed in his debut last time out.
Dessman, trained by Bob Baffert, is a first time starter that could be live; especially in a race with no clear standout. Scalper, also trained by Bob Baffert, could move forward in his second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 More Honor (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Cats Blame (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tigerbeach (ML 3-1)
# 5 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
# 9 Bedeviled (ML 12-1)
# 10 Lauren's Ladd (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Hot Perfection (ML 20-1)
# 3 Fortune of War (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Street to Indy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lil Milo (ML 12-1)
In addition to having started for a claiming price of $50k or less, entry here is limited to only those runners which have never won a state bred allowance or a race other than maiden or claiming. Which seems redundant to me; because if it's limited to runners which have only won maiden or claiming contests, then of course winners of a state bred allowance are not allowed. Anyway, the most important thing to note in these conditions is that there is no lifetime Win restriction for entry.
More Honor has finished in the Exacta every time that he has charged down the hill. Cats Blame is trained by Steve Knapp, whose runners typically need a race when returning from an approximate three month layoff. But Cats Blame's bullet work of 12/15 suggests that he may be ready to fire.
Tigerbeach took the Place at this class level last time out. Jimmy Chila could improve moving from the flats to the hill. Bedeviled goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such. Lauren's Ladd could improve returning to the turf. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Roy H (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Touched by Autism (ML 20-1)
# 3 Kanthaka (ML 4-1)
# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Conquest Tsunami (ML 5-1)
# 6 Awesome Anywhere (ML 8-1)
# 6 Awesome Anywhere (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)
There are several fine runners in this contest; and while I think any one of them on their best day could pull off the upset Saturday against Roy H, I don't see any value in doubling or tripling the cost of the big ticket trying to beat the Favorite here. Roy H is a proven winner at this level and above, and in my opinion taking a stab with one or more of these others in an effort to beat him does not improve this play. So it's Roy H on the big ticket alone for this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Dearborn (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Daybreak (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Fuega (ML 12-1)
# 10 Strengthinnumbers (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Cat's Desire (ML 15-1)
# 3 Coldwater (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gattaia (ML 15-1)
# 3 Coldwater (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gattaia (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mela Jones (ML 15-1)
# 7 Sensible Thoughts (ML 5-1)
# 9 Baladera (ML 15-1)
Dearborn missed graduation by just a neck against non-Claiming Maidens the only prior time that she charged down the hill. Daybreak (GB) disappointed at short odds a couple of times in her native Great Britian; but Daybreak should appreciate the class relief here.
Fuega showed good early speed charging down the Santa Anita hill in her debut last time out. Strengthinnumbers could improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 7 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7 with 1,4,5,7,9,10 with 7 with 1,6,8,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 7 with 7 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,6,8 with 7 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,7,9 $3.00
Total: $57.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 13, 2019
1/13/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Forestation (Final Odds 5.70) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 10 Trapalanda (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Palladium (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Lieutenant Dan (4.60) - "B" Selection
In the preview I wrote that I should perhaps have more faith in Trapalanda in the second leg of Sunday's sequence. Yet while my faith was weak, the public's was strong, as Trapalanda was bet down from his Morning Line of 4-1 to Post Time Favoritism; and Trapalanda proved faithful, delivering the W. Had I used fewer in that second leg, perhaps I would have found the two winners that I missed on the big ticket in the first and third race; but that's a big unknown. What is known is that two out of four doesn't get it done; and so Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 2 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $537.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 10 Trapalanda (2.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Palladium (3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Lieutenant Dan (4.60) - "B" Selection
In the preview I wrote that I should perhaps have more faith in Trapalanda in the second leg of Sunday's sequence. Yet while my faith was weak, the public's was strong, as Trapalanda was bet down from his Morning Line of 4-1 to Post Time Favoritism; and Trapalanda proved faithful, delivering the W. Had I used fewer in that second leg, perhaps I would have found the two winners that I missed on the big ticket in the first and third race; but that's a big unknown. What is known is that two out of four doesn't get it done; and so Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 2 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $537.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/13/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Sunday in Arcadia is forecast to be significantly drier than Saturday was; but more importantly (at least, from my perspective) the final four races on Sunday are all scheduled to be run over the main track; so I need not concern myself with thoughts regarding contests coming off the lawn. So with that said, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 R B Eye (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Bold Mongolian (ML 12-1)
# 2 Forestation (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nations Hope (ML 12-1)
# 7 Empirical Data (ML 15-1)
# 8 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 9 Magic Bro (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jonathantoquick (ML 5-1)
# 11 Sooner Better (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Warrensdirtydancer (ML 12-1)
Were it not for being disqualified last time out, R B Eye would have finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last four starts. So R B Eye certainly has proven that he is a contender at this level; though it should also be said that R B Eye is quickly approaching the point it's clear that he is happy to settle for minor awards.
Fortnite Dance could move up with the class drop and the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Louden's Gray (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Tomasino (ML 15-1)
# 6 Doc Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Master Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 8 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 5-1)
# 9 Winning Road (ML 5-1)
# 10 Trapalanda (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Celebrate Life (ML 8-1)
# 4 Harrovian (ML 30-1)
# 5 Royal Seeker (ML 20-1)
As can be seen by the number of runners that I'm using in this leg, I really don't have a good handle on this race. The problem with this contest is that there is only one entrant in this field who finished in the Trifecta last time out; that being Master Ruler. But the main reason that Master Ruler ran so well last time out is because he only had to go five furlongs. In my opinion Master Ruler is extremely suspect beyond five and a half furlongs.
Louden's Gray is the Morning Line Favorite; but he's oh-for-seven since leaving the barn of Trainer Victor Garcia. Winning Road is taking a huge drop off the layoff; which is always suspect, but certainly not a disqualifier. Perhaps I should have more faith here in Trapalanda, and drop some others. Anyway, if you've got the budget you may do well to just buy this leg and move on.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mayan Warrior (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Bea's Boy (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Palladium (ML 4-1)
# 3 Poppy's C Note (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mad Mike (ML 15-1)
# 6 Saltarin (ML 7-2)
# 7 Knight's Cross (ML 5-1)
# 8 Irish Polo (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Mayan Warrior took the Show at this class level last time out; and Mayan Warrior ran well in his one prior try around two turns (albeit on the turf). Bea's Boy fits well here on class, and could do well stretching out for the first time. Saltarin is one that you might consider adding to your big ticket; though it seems to me that Mayan Warrior has Saltarin's number. All those not on the big ticket are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Posterize (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Grandpa Louie (ML 5-2)
# 7 Wild Bean (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lieutenant Dan (ML 4-1)
# 10 Toby Time (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Loud Mouth (ML 15-1)
# 2 Prodigal Son (ML 8-1)
# 3 Abusive Gary (ML 8-1)
# 9 Satchel Paige (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Viatorem (ML 20-1)
Posterize, Grandpa Louie, and Lieutenant Dan all hit the board at this class level in their respective debuts last time out. Wild Bean and Toby Time are a pair of first time starters that I believe deserve consideration. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 with 1,4 with 4,5,7,8,10 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,7,8,9,10,11 with 1 with 4 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,5 with 4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 1,2,3,9 $2.00
Total: $81.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 R B Eye (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Bold Mongolian (ML 12-1)
# 2 Forestation (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nations Hope (ML 12-1)
# 7 Empirical Data (ML 15-1)
# 8 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 9 Magic Bro (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jonathantoquick (ML 5-1)
# 11 Sooner Better (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Warrensdirtydancer (ML 12-1)
Were it not for being disqualified last time out, R B Eye would have finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last four starts. So R B Eye certainly has proven that he is a contender at this level; though it should also be said that R B Eye is quickly approaching the point it's clear that he is happy to settle for minor awards.
Fortnite Dance could move up with the class drop and the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Louden's Gray (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Tomasino (ML 15-1)
# 6 Doc Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Master Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 8 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 5-1)
# 9 Winning Road (ML 5-1)
# 10 Trapalanda (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Celebrate Life (ML 8-1)
# 4 Harrovian (ML 30-1)
# 5 Royal Seeker (ML 20-1)
As can be seen by the number of runners that I'm using in this leg, I really don't have a good handle on this race. The problem with this contest is that there is only one entrant in this field who finished in the Trifecta last time out; that being Master Ruler. But the main reason that Master Ruler ran so well last time out is because he only had to go five furlongs. In my opinion Master Ruler is extremely suspect beyond five and a half furlongs.
Louden's Gray is the Morning Line Favorite; but he's oh-for-seven since leaving the barn of Trainer Victor Garcia. Winning Road is taking a huge drop off the layoff; which is always suspect, but certainly not a disqualifier. Perhaps I should have more faith here in Trapalanda, and drop some others. Anyway, if you've got the budget you may do well to just buy this leg and move on.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mayan Warrior (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Bea's Boy (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Palladium (ML 4-1)
# 3 Poppy's C Note (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mad Mike (ML 15-1)
# 6 Saltarin (ML 7-2)
# 7 Knight's Cross (ML 5-1)
# 8 Irish Polo (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Mayan Warrior took the Show at this class level last time out; and Mayan Warrior ran well in his one prior try around two turns (albeit on the turf). Bea's Boy fits well here on class, and could do well stretching out for the first time. Saltarin is one that you might consider adding to your big ticket; though it seems to me that Mayan Warrior has Saltarin's number. All those not on the big ticket are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Posterize (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Grandpa Louie (ML 5-2)
# 7 Wild Bean (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lieutenant Dan (ML 4-1)
# 10 Toby Time (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Loud Mouth (ML 15-1)
# 2 Prodigal Son (ML 8-1)
# 3 Abusive Gary (ML 8-1)
# 9 Satchel Paige (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Viatorem (ML 20-1)
Posterize, Grandpa Louie, and Lieutenant Dan all hit the board at this class level in their respective debuts last time out. Wild Bean and Toby Time are a pair of first time starters that I believe deserve consideration. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 with 1,4 with 4,5,7,8,10 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,7,8,9,10,11 with 1 with 4 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,5 with 4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 1,2,3,9 $2.00
Total: $81.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 5, 2019
1/5/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Five - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Spokane Eagle (Final Odds 3.70) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 7 Next Shares (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Popular Kid (3.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Sham - # 6 Gunmetal Gray (3.70) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Derby Factor (12.30) - "C" Selection
I was correct to be skeptical of # 5 Coliseum (0.60*) in the Grade 3 Sham Saturday. Unfortunately, I was incorrect regarding which runner to put on the big ticket with Coliseum; as, contrary to my analysis in the preview, Gunmetal Gray proved to be very capable of coming off the pace and gaining ground in the drive. So for that and other reasons, Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Sergio (2.20) - $420.40 Finish: 8th
Incidentally, I suspect that the actual payout would have been higher than the above amount had Sergio won, as there was a late scratch in the nightcap (# 5 Paul's Diva), which means that Santa Anita calculates Will Pay's for the multi-race sequences for each runner with the presumption that they will be the Post Time Favorite.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of 7 / 7 / 7 / 6 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $8,830.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 7 Next Shares (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Popular Kid (3.30) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Sham - # 6 Gunmetal Gray (3.70) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Derby Factor (12.30) - "C" Selection
I was correct to be skeptical of # 5 Coliseum (0.60*) in the Grade 3 Sham Saturday. Unfortunately, I was incorrect regarding which runner to put on the big ticket with Coliseum; as, contrary to my analysis in the preview, Gunmetal Gray proved to be very capable of coming off the pace and gaining ground in the drive. So for that and other reasons, Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Sergio (2.20) - $420.40 Finish: 8th
Incidentally, I suspect that the actual payout would have been higher than the above amount had Sergio won, as there was a late scratch in the nightcap (# 5 Paul's Diva), which means that Santa Anita calculates Will Pay's for the multi-race sequences for each runner with the presumption that they will be the Post Time Favorite.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of 7 / 7 / 7 / 6 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $8,830.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/5/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Five - Preview
Just so you know, this was originally going to be a Rainbow Pick Six play; but after looking at the opening leg of that sequence (Race 5) I decided to make this a Pick Five instead. For those who haven't looked at it, Race 5 is a charge down the hill for Maiden three year olds, only one of whom has actually competed on the turf before. Also note that close to half the field in Race 5 are first time starters. So Late Pick Five it is.
Moving forward, the Kentucky Derby trail passes through Arcadia Saturday, with the Grade 3 Sham occupying the featured race position on the program. Saturday's card also contains the Grade 2 San Gabriel, a contest for older runners competing on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at both races below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Spokane Eagle (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Zatter (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Goren (ML 12-1)
# 2 Cool Bobby (ML 3-1)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coil Me Home (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 3 Sir Samson (ML 30-1)
Spokane Eagle seems to perform well no matter which barn he runs for, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with runners going first off the claim; so that looks like a nice fit. Zatter is returning from an extended layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 7 Next Shares (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Chicago Style (ML 3-1)
# 9 Big Bend (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Liam the Charmer (ML 4-1)
# 2 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 3 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Arms Runner (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 8 Big Score (ML 6-1)
Next Shares is facing softer than he has in recent contests. I'd have more confidence in Chicago Style if this contest was being run at Del Mar, as that's where Chicago Style seems to run his best. But coming off his win in the Hollywood Turf Cup, Chicago Style seems to be in top form, and he tends to run well regardless of distance.
Big Bend looks quickest here, which sorta underlines how little speed there is in this field. Anyway, Big Bend might get away with some soft fractions in the early going. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Popular Kid (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 The Big Train (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Mongolian Groom (ML 15-1)
# 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
# 3 Extraordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 4 Jamminwithbrandon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Show Me Da Lute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Liberty Park (ML 10-1)
# 9 Kylemore (ML 5-1)
For those who follow that angle, Lord Guinness, Jamminwithbrandon, Show Me Da Lute, and Liberty Park are all being reported as first time geldings.
Popular Kid tends to run well over this main track, and Popular Kid seems to be in top form. The Big Train, who seems to settle for far too many minor awards on the turf, ran away and hid from the field last time out in a contest that got kicked off the lawn; so maybe the surface switch is just what The Big Train needed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Coliseum (ML 1-1)
B's
# 2 Gray Magician (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Sueno (ML 20-1)
# 3 Savagery (ML 10-1)
# 4 Easy Shot (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gunmetal Gray (ML 5-2)
# 7 Much Better (ML 6-1)
This probably would have been a Pick Six play if I had more confidence in Coliseum as a big ticket single. But I don't see Coliseum getting to the lead early, and since this is his first time going around two turns, I don't know how well Coliseum will be running late. So ultimately I decided to double the cost of the big ticket by going two deep in this leg.
So having decided to go two deep in this leg, the question then becomes, "Who will be the "B" Selection?" I chose against Gunmetal Gray because I don't like the way that he has backed up in the stretch in his last two races. Sueno looked like a prime candidate for the spot, if only because Sueno will be a big price; but I couldn't convince myself that Sueno can do well at this class level.
Therefore, by process of elimination, I gave the "B" Selection spot to Gray Magician. I like the way that Gray Magician came from off the pace to graduate last time out, and I think that Gray Magician just might outrun Coliseum late. So Coliseum and Gray Magician go on the big ticket, and everyone else will be used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sergio (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Bitter Ring Home (ML 4-1)
# 5 Paul's Diva (ML 6-1)
# 7 Getaloadofthis (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Starship Chewy (ML 30-1)
# 2 Bless His Heart (ML 4-1)
# 6 Dude's Dude (ML 30-1)
# 8 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Violent Affair (ML 15-1)
# 10 Derby Factor (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Brahms Forest (ML 12-1) and # 12 Malibu Magic (ML 15-1)
Sergio drops in for a tag for the first time after taking the Show two starts back against non-claiming maidens. Bitter Ring Home has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Paul's Diva took the Place at this class level last time out. Getaloadofthis could move up with the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 4,7 with 5,7,9 with 5,7 with 2,5 with 3,4,5,7 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,2,5,6 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,10 with 7 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9 with 5 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $63.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:34 EDT / 2:34 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Moving forward, the Kentucky Derby trail passes through Arcadia Saturday, with the Grade 3 Sham occupying the featured race position on the program. Saturday's card also contains the Grade 2 San Gabriel, a contest for older runners competing on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at both races below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Spokane Eagle (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Zatter (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Goren (ML 12-1)
# 2 Cool Bobby (ML 3-1)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coil Me Home (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 3 Sir Samson (ML 30-1)
Spokane Eagle seems to perform well no matter which barn he runs for, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with runners going first off the claim; so that looks like a nice fit. Zatter is returning from an extended layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 7 Next Shares (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Chicago Style (ML 3-1)
# 9 Big Bend (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Liam the Charmer (ML 4-1)
# 2 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 3 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Arms Runner (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 8 Big Score (ML 6-1)
Next Shares is facing softer than he has in recent contests. I'd have more confidence in Chicago Style if this contest was being run at Del Mar, as that's where Chicago Style seems to run his best. But coming off his win in the Hollywood Turf Cup, Chicago Style seems to be in top form, and he tends to run well regardless of distance.
Big Bend looks quickest here, which sorta underlines how little speed there is in this field. Anyway, Big Bend might get away with some soft fractions in the early going. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Popular Kid (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 The Big Train (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
# 3 Extraordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 4 Jamminwithbrandon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Show Me Da Lute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Liberty Park (ML 10-1)
# 9 Kylemore (ML 5-1)
For those who follow that angle, Lord Guinness, Jamminwithbrandon, Show Me Da Lute, and Liberty Park are all being reported as first time geldings.
Popular Kid tends to run well over this main track, and Popular Kid seems to be in top form. The Big Train, who seems to settle for far too many minor awards on the turf, ran away and hid from the field last time out in a contest that got kicked off the lawn; so maybe the surface switch is just what The Big Train needed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Coliseum (ML 1-1)
B's
# 2 Gray Magician (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Sueno (ML 20-1)
# 3 Savagery (ML 10-1)
# 4 Easy Shot (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gunmetal Gray (ML 5-2)
# 7 Much Better (ML 6-1)
This probably would have been a Pick Six play if I had more confidence in Coliseum as a big ticket single. But I don't see Coliseum getting to the lead early, and since this is his first time going around two turns, I don't know how well Coliseum will be running late. So ultimately I decided to double the cost of the big ticket by going two deep in this leg.
So having decided to go two deep in this leg, the question then becomes, "Who will be the "B" Selection?" I chose against Gunmetal Gray because I don't like the way that he has backed up in the stretch in his last two races. Sueno looked like a prime candidate for the spot, if only because Sueno will be a big price; but I couldn't convince myself that Sueno can do well at this class level.
Therefore, by process of elimination, I gave the "B" Selection spot to Gray Magician. I like the way that Gray Magician came from off the pace to graduate last time out, and I think that Gray Magician just might outrun Coliseum late. So Coliseum and Gray Magician go on the big ticket, and everyone else will be used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sergio (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Bitter Ring Home (ML 4-1)
# 5 Paul's Diva (ML 6-1)
# 7 Getaloadofthis (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Starship Chewy (ML 30-1)
# 2 Bless His Heart (ML 4-1)
# 6 Dude's Dude (ML 30-1)
# 8 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Violent Affair (ML 15-1)
# 10 Derby Factor (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Brahms Forest (ML 12-1) and # 12 Malibu Magic (ML 15-1)
Sergio drops in for a tag for the first time after taking the Show two starts back against non-claiming maidens. Bitter Ring Home has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Paul's Diva took the Place at this class level last time out. Getaloadofthis could move up with the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 4,7 with 5,7,9 with 5,7 with 2,5 with 3,4,5,7 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,2,5,6 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,10 with 7 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9 with 5 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $63.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:34 EDT / 2:34 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
1/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 6 Red Lightning (Final Odds 24.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Joe Hernandez - # 8 Caribou Club (3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Lucky Student (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Irish Heatwave (7.20) - "C" Selection
I was correct to be skeptical of # 3 Stormy Liberal (0.90*) coming off the layoff in the Joe Hernandez; and I was correct about the nightcap being chaotic. But mistakes included going three deep in the third leg where there was a last out winner at the class level; and chaotic though it may have been, not having a prior turf victor on the main ticket with so many turf maidens was an avoidable error. So for those and other reasons, I begin the new year by contributing instead of collecting.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 8 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,042.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Joe Hernandez - # 8 Caribou Club (3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Lucky Student (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Irish Heatwave (7.20) - "C" Selection
I was correct to be skeptical of # 3 Stormy Liberal (0.90*) coming off the layoff in the Joe Hernandez; and I was correct about the nightcap being chaotic. But mistakes included going three deep in the third leg where there was a last out winner at the class level; and chaotic though it may have been, not having a prior turf victor on the main ticket with so many turf maidens was an avoidable error. So for those and other reasons, I begin the new year by contributing instead of collecting.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 8 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,042.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/1/19 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
“My greatest hope regarding the future rests on the mistakes I’ve made in the past, for those are the most effective things I’ve got to build with.” - Craig D. Lounsbrough
Welcome to 2019, everyone! I want to wish a Happy New Year to all, as well as a very Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. Hopefully everyone gets off to a smooth beginning in 2019 and no one stumbles out of the gate.
Please note that I will be cutting back significantly on my blogging in 2019. My current plan for most weekends this year is to post on either Saturday or Sunday, rather than both, as has been the case for the past few years. I don't have a firm schedule in mind just yet; though I anticipate that most weekends will see me posting on Saturdays, reserving the Sunday option for those occasions where there is a mandatory payout of a Jackpot Pick Six Pool. But as with all things in life this is subject to change, as I'll see how this setup plays out in practice rather than theory, and adjust accordingly.
Turning our attention to Tuesday's action, the featured race on the Acadia card is the Grade 3 Joe Hernandez, a charge down the Santa Anita hill for older runners. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Microrithms (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Solid Wager (ML 3-1)
# 3 Threefiveindia (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Apalachee Bay (ML 15-1)
# 5 Captain Scotty (ML 5-2)
# 6 Red Lightning (ML 8-1)
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-1)
The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 62.5k N2X is that runners who were winless last year can be entered here without fear of being claimed. Those in this field who managed to avoid the Winner's Circle in 2018 are Threefiveindia, Red Lightning, and Lord Simba. Note for the record that the only entrant in this field who is running for a tag is Solid Wager.
Microrithms looked solid enough in defeating a next out winner last time out that he should be able to handle the rise in class. Solid Wager won by as many as he wanted last time out by closing into a pace that wasn't all that fast.
Threefiveindia hasn't shown much since leaving the barn of Trainer Chad Brown; but Threefiveindia is getting some significant class relief here, and the return to the main track can only help. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Joe Hernandez (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Stormy Liberal (ML 8-5)
B's
# 7 Conquest Tsunami (ML 3-1)
# 8 Calibu Club (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Cistron (ML 12-1)
# 2 Calculator (ML 5-1)
# 4 Afleet Ascent (ML 20-1)
# 5 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 6-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)
Stormy Liberal would probably a big ticket single for me in this leg were he not coming off the layoff. Conquest Tsunami may find his best form by returning to the Santa Anita hill. Calibu Club has improved noticeably since Jockey Joe Talamo has jumped on his back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Lucky Student (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 2 Hero for Hire (ML 6-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Eskenforadrink (ML 8-1)
# 3 Ciao Luna (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sought More Pep (ML 6-1)
# 6 Tiger Mom (ML 10-1)
# 7 Forthenineteen (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lovely Linda (ML 30-1)
Lucky Student was victorious at this class level last time out at Del Mar, and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Hero for Hire could rebound off her poor showing last time out with the return to Arcadia. Princess Kendra took the Show against classier competition last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - [S] OC 50k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Teacher's Treasure (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Sayin Grace (ML 8-1)
# 6 Feeling Strong (ML 12-1)
# 7 Scouted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Takeo Squared (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Listing (ML 6-1)
# 4 Irish Heatwave (ML 8-1)
# 5 Principe Carlo (ML 20-1)
# 9 Eighty Proof (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grab the Munny (ML 12-1)
# 12 Offshore Affair (ML 12-1)
# 13 Just Hit Play (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Clem Labine (ML 8-1) and # 14 Whooping Jay (ML 3-1)
It seems like only yesterday that these runners were juveniles. Oh, wait; that was yesterday. Life comes at you fast.
Anyway, approximately half these runners have never been on the grass, and none of them have ever charged down the Santa Anita hill. So my best advice here is to go as deep as your budget allows. I've tried to use a mixture of those that have been running well with those whose breeding suggests they will improve by moving to the turf; but, seriously, pretty much anything can happen here. As almost always, the backup "C" Selections are those who aren't on the big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 3,7,8 with 2,4,8 with 2,3,6,7,8 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 3 with 8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 8 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 1,4,5,9,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $79.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Welcome to 2019, everyone! I want to wish a Happy New Year to all, as well as a very Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. Hopefully everyone gets off to a smooth beginning in 2019 and no one stumbles out of the gate.
Please note that I will be cutting back significantly on my blogging in 2019. My current plan for most weekends this year is to post on either Saturday or Sunday, rather than both, as has been the case for the past few years. I don't have a firm schedule in mind just yet; though I anticipate that most weekends will see me posting on Saturdays, reserving the Sunday option for those occasions where there is a mandatory payout of a Jackpot Pick Six Pool. But as with all things in life this is subject to change, as I'll see how this setup plays out in practice rather than theory, and adjust accordingly.
Turning our attention to Tuesday's action, the featured race on the Acadia card is the Grade 3 Joe Hernandez, a charge down the Santa Anita hill for older runners. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Microrithms (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Solid Wager (ML 3-1)
# 3 Threefiveindia (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Apalachee Bay (ML 15-1)
# 5 Captain Scotty (ML 5-2)
# 6 Red Lightning (ML 8-1)
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-1)
The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 62.5k N2X is that runners who were winless last year can be entered here without fear of being claimed. Those in this field who managed to avoid the Winner's Circle in 2018 are Threefiveindia, Red Lightning, and Lord Simba. Note for the record that the only entrant in this field who is running for a tag is Solid Wager.
Microrithms looked solid enough in defeating a next out winner last time out that he should be able to handle the rise in class. Solid Wager won by as many as he wanted last time out by closing into a pace that wasn't all that fast.
Threefiveindia hasn't shown much since leaving the barn of Trainer Chad Brown; but Threefiveindia is getting some significant class relief here, and the return to the main track can only help. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Joe Hernandez (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Stormy Liberal (ML 8-5)
B's
# 7 Conquest Tsunami (ML 3-1)
# 8 Calibu Club (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Cistron (ML 12-1)
# 2 Calculator (ML 5-1)
# 4 Afleet Ascent (ML 20-1)
# 5 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 6-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)
Stormy Liberal would probably a big ticket single for me in this leg were he not coming off the layoff. Conquest Tsunami may find his best form by returning to the Santa Anita hill. Calibu Club has improved noticeably since Jockey Joe Talamo has jumped on his back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Lucky Student (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 2 Hero for Hire (ML 6-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Eskenforadrink (ML 8-1)
# 3 Ciao Luna (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sought More Pep (ML 6-1)
# 6 Tiger Mom (ML 10-1)
# 7 Forthenineteen (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lovely Linda (ML 30-1)
Lucky Student was victorious at this class level last time out at Del Mar, and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Hero for Hire could rebound off her poor showing last time out with the return to Arcadia. Princess Kendra took the Show against classier competition last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - [S] OC 50k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Teacher's Treasure (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Sayin Grace (ML 8-1)
# 6 Feeling Strong (ML 12-1)
# 7 Scouted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Takeo Squared (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Listing (ML 6-1)
# 4 Irish Heatwave (ML 8-1)
# 5 Principe Carlo (ML 20-1)
# 9 Eighty Proof (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grab the Munny (ML 12-1)
# 12 Offshore Affair (ML 12-1)
# 13 Just Hit Play (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Clem Labine (ML 8-1) and # 14 Whooping Jay (ML 3-1)
It seems like only yesterday that these runners were juveniles. Oh, wait; that was yesterday. Life comes at you fast.
Anyway, approximately half these runners have never been on the grass, and none of them have ever charged down the Santa Anita hill. So my best advice here is to go as deep as your budget allows. I've tried to use a mixture of those that have been running well with those whose breeding suggests they will improve by moving to the turf; but, seriously, pretty much anything can happen here. As almost always, the backup "C" Selections are those who aren't on the big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 3,7,8 with 2,4,8 with 2,3,6,7,8 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 3 with 8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 8 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 1,4,5,9,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $79.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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