3/29/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Secretsatmidnight (Final Odds 17.70) - No Selection

Race 7 - The American Beauty - # 1 Moone's My Name (GB) (4.40) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - The Tokyo City Cup - # 8 Majestic Harbor (5.80) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 12 Van Dien Avenue (3.60) - "A" Selection

My fear when drawing up today's play was that we could find ourselves missing out on cashing because we might end up with multiple "C" selections winning.  As it turned out such fears were unfounded; because the two races we missed, we missed big.

Secretsatmidnight reminded us of the dangers that one can encounter when ignoring the "other" Baffert.  It was the Baffert trained # 5 Taran Taran (5.80) with Gary Stevens aboard that drew the bettors attention, going off as third choice on the tote board, only to finish dead last.  Still, it's easy to forgive us and the rest of the betting public for overlooking Secretsatmidnight, a horse that entered today's contest oh-for-four over the Santa Anita main track; oh-for-three at today's distance; and oh-for-her career at crossing the Finish Line first, as her only prior victory had come via a DQ.

As feared, someone passed Blueskiesnrainbows (2.20*) in The Tokyo City Cup; and though there was still nearly a mile to go in the contest when it happened, we knew at that point that our "A" selection for the race was not going to win.  What we did not count on was the victor being the entrant with the lowest Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field.  Most definitely did not see that coming.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 1 / 8 / 12  were rewarded with a $1,430.10 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/29/14 The Louisiana Derby - Results

Fair Grounds Race 11 - The Louisiana Derby - # 6 Vicar's in Trouble (Final Odds 3.30)

There was no bad trip today; no taking the scenic route around the track; as Jockey Rosie Napravnik hustled Vicar's in Trouble straight to the lead right out of the gate, and together they took the rest of the field gate to wire, winning the one hundred first running of The Louisiana Derby by three and a half lengths.  # 1 Intense Holiday (1.90*) took the Place, while # 7 Commanding Curve (13.10) rounded out the Trifecta.

Vicar's in Trouble wasn't ignored in the betting as we had hoped following his third place finish in The Risen Star; in fact, he went off at less than his Morning Line Odds of 4-1.  But you'll hear no complaints here, for as my good buddy Sully would say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets.  I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/29/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“Champions keep playing until they get it right.” – Billie Jean King

It's Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park, and Louisiana Derby Day at the Fair Grounds; but I didn't like the weather forecast for today in South Florida and Louisiana, so I'll be once again turning my attention to the West and making my best attempt to hit the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Magic Mark (Morning Line 4-1)
# 10 I Don't Care Who (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 2 Mel's Game (ML 8-1)

Magic Mark takes a step up the class ladder after winning clear against California breds at the N1X level.  The Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that one certainly puts him in the mix here.  Note that both the Place and Show horse from his graduation both went on to win their next time out.

I Don't Care Who won for fun in each of his last two starts, with both victories coming over this main track.  I Don't Care Who is four-for-seven in his career on the Santa Anita dirt, and has the best last-out Beyer in this field.

Throw out all his races at less than seven furlongs and Mel's Game is a perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita main track, and falls just half a length shy of being four-for-five overall for his career.  This will be Mel's Game's first try routing; his record suggests that he'll appreciate the added distance.

RACE 7 - (F) The American Beauty $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Moone's My Name (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 4 Golden Production (ML 9-2)
# 6 Fanticola (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 3 Unusual Hottie (ML 5-1)
# 5 Bee Brave (GB) (ML 5-1)

Moone's My Name (GB) gets some much needed class relief.  Moone's My Name has had only two starts since coming to North America that weren't Graded Stakes; one she won clear, while the other, which was last year's running of this event, she lost by a neck.  Note also that Moone's My Name defeated Dancingtothestars in that North American victory, the same Dancingtothestars that defeated Fanticola last month.

Golden Production is a wildcard here as she is a stakes winner around two turns, but on dirt.  Golden Production has two Wins in the three times that's she's tried the grass, but all three efforts were sprints (including a win charging down the hill).  As many in this field have already failed at this level, I think it's worth taking a chance on putting Golden Production in as an "A" selection.

Fanticola is less than a combined length shy of coming into this one with a five race winning streak.  She certainly has the talent to win here; but the close margin of her defeats combined with the tight margins in her victories suggest that she may prefer running with others rather than ahead of them.

Unusual Hottie finished a length and a half behind Moone's My Name last time out in the Grade 2 Buena Vista, making for three straight starts where she's finished out of the Trifecta.  Unusual Hottie will be adding blinkers today; I'm not sure that will help, but I know that at her best she can win at this level.

Bee Brave (GB) won over this turf course at today's distance in her North American debut.  Bee Brave should have a pace advantage here, as many in this field prefer to race on the front end.  As with Golden Production, the fact that so many in this field have failed at this level adds to the appeal of the new shooters.

RACE 8 - The Tokyo City Cup (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Blueskiesnrainbows (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Ever Rider (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Segway (ML 4-1)
# 5 Toccetive (ML 30-1)
# 7 Niagara Falls (ML 12-1)

Blueskiesnrainbows is the only entrant here with Graded Stakes victories in his recent form.  The only thing keeping me from making Blueskiesnrainbows a pure single here is that he needs to lead; so if he gets passed at any time during this ten furlong marathon, there's a good chance that he'll just spit the bit and give up.

The "C" selections are all the entrants besides Blueskiesnrainbows with a Tomlinson Distance Rating above 300 for today's trip.  Yeah, sometimes the winner is just the last one still moving forward at the end.  Oh, I'll also be putting a couple of bucks on # 5 Toccetive in the Win Pool today, because I expect to get ridiculously high odds for the horse in this field who has actually won a stakes at a marathon distance on dirt.

RACE 9 - [S](F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Seraphic Slew (ML 3-1)
# 12 Van Dien Avenue (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 1 Turn On (ML 12-1)
# 2 Q' Viva (ML 15-1)
# 5 Warren's Cracker (ML 4-1)
# 11 Ready for Love (ML 8-1)

Seraphic Slew and Van Dien Avenue have both earned Beyer Speed Figures virtually equal to par for this class over this turf course at today's distance.  Turn On will be making her second career start; Trainer Neil Drysdale wins with approximately 23% of such.  Q' Viva is a daughter of Tribal Rule trying grass for the first time.  Warren's Cracker twice finished in the Trifecta at today's level over this turf course last year; a return to that form puts her right in the mix today.  Ready for Love returns after a twelve month vacation after showing some tactical speed in her two prior career starts.  Ready for Love is now trained by Vann Belvoir, who wins about a fifth of time when he sends out who have just come under his care.  Note that Belvoir also does quite well with those returning from an extended layoff, albeit in a very small sample size.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 9,12 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 9,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 3,5 with 6 with 9,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 2,4,5,7 with 9,12 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 1,2,5,11 $12.00

Total: $55.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/29/14 The Louisiana Derby - Preview

Just a quick look at today's Louisiana Derby (Race 11 @ Fairgrounds):

Personally I think # 10 Albano (ML 9-2) ran the much better race in The Risen Star than # 1 Intense Holiday (ML 2-1). While Intense Holiday was the one getting his picture taken at the end it was Albano who did all the heavy lifting, including putting away all the other front runners (note in the chart of that race that Albano was the only runner in the front five at the half that finished in the Superfecta).

Both Mike Beer and Dan Illman over at DRF.com like the boy from New York City, # 9 In Trouble. Certainly his Beyer Speed Figures fit well in this field, and there's no disgrace to his Show finish behind Samraat and Uncle Sigh in The Gotham Stakes. 

While this viewpoint is subject to change, for now I'm leaning towards # 6 Vicar's in Trouble (ML 4-1), the beaten Post Time Favorite in The Risen Star. Vicar's in Trouble took the scenic route around the track in The Risen Star, going four wide around both turns, along with running wide down the back stretch. Yet despite all that it was Vicar's in Trouble who made the first run at Albano and was getting to him before running out of gas. If the bettors ignore Vicar's in Trouble in favor of the other candidates, then he may very well turn out to be an excellent value play.

Post Time for The Louisiana Derby is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Kentucky Derby Future Pool 4 Morning Line Posted

To be honest, the title of this post is a little misleading; not just because Pool 4's Morning Line by Mike Battaglia was actually released Monday, but also because I really have no interest in a futures wager at this time.  I should also advise you not to expect any heavy analysis here; I don't think there's much to be gained by taking an in-depth look at all the major contenders as they currently stand.  What I wanted to do here was just jot down a few thoughts on my top Kentucky Derby contenders while they were still fresh in my mind, so that I have a point of reference to guide me over the next couple over weekends and help me start to bring the big race into focus.

My current top contender is Cairo Prince, winner of The Holy Bull and The Nashua and Place horse behind the recently injured Honor Code in the abomination that was The Remsen (where they walked the opening half mile in 52.74 before lightly jogging to 1:17.56 for the first six furlongs).  Cairo Prince is scheduled to compete Saturday in The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, which is expected have just a half dozen entrants (the draw will be Wednesday).  While a victory there would certainly solidify his position as top contender for The Kentucky Derby in my mind, I'm more interested in seeing how well he runs in what will be just his second start over the previous four months.

Shifting to the West Coast, the first Saturday in April will bring us The Santa Anita Derby, and with it the much anticipated match-up between Candy Boy and California Chrome.  My gut instinct is that Candy Boy is the better of the two; though, like most gut instincts, that's subject to change with my next meal.  It'll be interesting to see if one stands out above the other when they go head-to-head, or if they prove to be evenly matched.

Turning towards Arkansas, my personal opinion is that Tapiture was the best horse in The Rebel despite having to settle for the Place.  It seemed clear that Tapiture had a lot of run in him in while he was boxed in at the top of the stretch before he made his own clearing to give himself some running room alongside the eventual winner, Hoppertunity.  At this point in time I prefer Tapiture over Hoppertunity; but the picture is muddied due to the current investigations facing Tapiture's trainer Steve Asmussen.  The one thing I feel I can confidently take from The Rebel Stakes is that Ride On Curlin does not rank among the top contenders, as he was the only one of the top four finishers in that event without excuse, but could still finish no better than third.

So that's it for now.  As I said, just a few thoughts; a snapshot, if you will, of where I feel the top Kentucky Derby contenders currently stand in my mind.  If you guys have any comments right now that you'd like to share, I'd love to hear them.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/23/14 Sunland Park All-Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Sunland Park Oaks - # 5 Awesome Baby (Final Odds 0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The New Mexico Breeders' Oaks - # 8 Zasha (4.30) - No Selection
Race 10 - The La Coneja - # 6 Tricky R (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sunland Derby - # 9 Chitu (1.90*) - "A" Selection

Not much to say here, as there were no real surprises in the sequence; excepting, of course, the race we missed.  It was another big day for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins his fourth straight Sunland Park Oaks, along with his third overall victory in The Sunland Derby.  As for us, it was another learning experience, as we again find ourselves one Win shy of cashing.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 8 / 6 / 9  were rewarded with a $92.35 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/23/14 Sunland Park All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

It's Sunland Derby Day today, so we shift our focus approximately ten miles west of El Paso, TX to beautiful Sunland Park.  Among their many offerings today is a nice little All-Stakes Pick Four, which is where we'll be concentrating our efforts.

RACE 8 - (F) The Sunland Park Oaks $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Awesome Baby (Morning Line 6-5)

C's

# 1 Lucky for You (ML 5-2)

Awesome Baby, trained by Bob Baffert, is a two-time Graded Stakes winner in a field where she is the only entrant to have competed in Graded Stakes events.  Lucky for You, Trainer Todd Pletcher's entry, has yet to defeat winners; but her last out Beyer Speed Figure matches to Awesome Baby.  Lucky for You was also flattered by the Show horse in her graduation (She's Justified) graduating herself next time out with a late charge against non-claiming maidens at Gulfstream Park.

RACE 9 - [S](F) The New Mexico Breeders' Oaks $85k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 My Bikini Fell Off (ML 5-2)
# 6 Renewed Vows (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Rollsetroll (ML 7-2)

My Bikini Fell Off has a beautiful pair of Wins in her only two career starts, and comes into this contest with the best last out Beyer in the field.  The only question is will she go all the way.  Renewed Vows has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field.  Like My Bikini Fell Off, Renewed Vows is trained by Bart Hone.  Rollsetroll was wide in the turn and through the stretch while taking the Place behind My Bikini Fell Off the last time they competed; perhaps she'll benefit from the added distance.

RACE 10 - [S](F) The La Coneja $85k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Funnyoushouldask (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tricky R (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Funnyoushouldask took the Place in last year's running of this contest.  Toss out the try against open stakes company and Funnyoushouldask has looked good in her 2014 starts.  Tricky R enters this one riding a three race winning streak.  She's a career four-for-seven over this track, and might very well be the quickest of the bunch.

RACE 11 - The Sunland Derby (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Midnight Hawk (ML 5-2)
# 9 Chitu (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Commissioner (ML 7-2)
# 8 Rebranded (ML 12-1)

Midnight Hawk and Chitu are the Bob Baffert entries, and they seem to have a clear edge over the rest of the field.  The only question is can they make the distance without running each other into the ground.

Commissioner is one of the two Todd Pletcher entries.  Commissioner is adding blinkers today.  The DRF Past Performances note that "Pletcher is 0-for-14 the past five years with starters wearing blinkers for the first time in graded stakes races."  But even without that stat you would know that adding blinkers for a stakes race is a bad move.  Putting blinkers on a horse making it's second or third start makes sense; you want a horse learning how to compete to focus on the race and not its surroundings.  Adding blinkers also makes sense for horses in the claiming ranks, to see if you can shake them out of the doldrums and get a renewed effort from them.   Adding blinkers for a major stakes try does not make sense, because now is not the time to be trying to figure things out for your horse.

Despite all the above, Commissioner is simply too good to leave off the ticket.  His preferred running style of coming off the pace should suit him well against this field, and he already has two wins at today's distance.

Rebranded, previously trained by Todd Pletcher, is the local hero.  Rebranded is also adding blinkers today, so you can just repeat the above paragraph here.  But Rebranded took a major step forward in his three year old debut his last time out.  Odds are that he'll bounce off that effort; but if Rebranded can move forward off that try, then he could get his picture taken when this one is finished.

OK, that's the analysis; and, quite frankly, it looks heavy on the chalk side.  So since there's not much chance for a price, let's shake things up a bit and see if we can get an edge by pressing our best opinions.  

$2.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 5,6 with 7,9 $8.00
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4,6 with 5,6 with 7,9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,5,6 with 5,6 with 3,7,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 4,5,6 with 5,6 with 3,7,8,9 $24.00

Total: $49.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/22/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Mega Heat (Final Odds 1.90) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Big Wags (6.30) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Pasadena - # 1 Enterprising (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Lil Cheyenne (5.00) - No Selection

It was a competitive sequence, no doubt about it, as each leg was decided by less than a length.  Worth noting: even though only four went to the gate in Race 6 there was still Superfecta wagering; and if you simply boxed every horse in the field, you made a profit, as the bet returned $3.05 for a dime.  For posterity's sake, here are the Will Pays for the three horses to which we were alive going into the finale:

$1 Will Pays

# 7 Corinthian Melody - $245.30

# 8 Joint Attempt - $326.00

$0.50 Will Pay

# 9 Brandon’s Princess - $309.10

All three of the above made their way into the Super High Five, with # 9 Brandon's Princess (8.70) coming within a half length of making us winners; but such was not to be, as Lil Cheyenne's victory made our tickets worthless.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 2 / 1 / 6  were rewarded with a $247.20 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/22/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Spring is God's way of saying, 'One more time!'" - Robert Orben

So we come to the first Saturday in Spring and, surprise, surprise, it looks like no one will be winning a billion dollars of Warren Buffett's money.  But that's not our concern, as we shift our focus from the East to the West and take a run at today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - Clm $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Mega Heat (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Stoney Fleece (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 American Act (ML 12-1)
# 6 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 6-1)

Needless to say, # 5 El Commodore (ML 5-2), had he not been scratched, would have been an "A" contender.  Indeed, the scratch of El Commodore nearly led me to scrap this Pick Four play today, as the inability to lean on him as a standout in this contest meant having to make several hard choices in the later events.  The further scratch of # 7 Maxx the Giant (ML 12-1) forced the inclusion of Batti Man on the ticket; for while my original plan was to not use Batti Man in my play, the above two scratches have left him in position to be the controlling speed in this field.

Willyconker defeated Stoney Fleece rather convincingly at Hollywood Park back in December, though it's worth noting that Jockey Victor Espinoza, who was aboard Willyconker for that Win, will be riding Stoney Fleece today; while Corey Nakatani, who rode Stoney Fleece to his last victory, will be on top on Williconker in this event.  Mega Heat is the horse for the horse for the course, as well as being a specialist at today's distance.

EDIT - And now Willyconker and # 4 Hog's Hollow (ML 6-1) are both scratched as well (all four scratches are by order of the track Veterinarian).  So let's move Stoney Fleece up to the "A" list, and bring in American Act as a "C", so that all four remaining runners are on the ticket in some fashion.

RACE 7 - Clm $10k - Eight and a half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Twin Six (ML 5-1)
# 2 Big Wags (ML 6-1)
# 8 Graeme Crackerjack (ML 12-1)
# 11 Paseo Alegro (ML 7-2)
# 12 Tuckers Point (ML 5-1)

C's

None

This would have been a nice one to just hit the "ALL" button, as this certainly appears to be a very evenly matched field.  Tuckers Point won at this level last time out; Graeme Crackerjack won at this level three back; while Twin Six won against slightly more expensive two starts back.  Pasea Alegro moves up a rung on the class ladder; but he won convincingly last time out, and the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned fits right in with the rest of this field.  Big Wags gets some much needed class relief.  Note that Big Wags was defeating more expensive stock back in the Fall.

RACE 8 - The Pasadena $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Enterprising (ML 5-2)
# 4 Diamond Bachelor (3-1)

C's

# 6 Home Run Kitten (ML 5-1)

Enterprising and Diamond Bachelor are both stakes winners at today's distance on the grass.  Home Run Kitten is on the ticket primarily because of breeding/reputation.  Leaving Home Run Kitten completely off the ticket would save me ten bucks, or 12.5% of the play's total cost; we'll know later which was the correct move.  Hard to be confident here as several that have belonged on grass all along were diverted due to their connections contracting Kentucky Derby fever.  Once the top contenders here get a couple more grass races on their resumes we'll be in a better position to rank their respective abilities.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Corinthian Melody (ML 5-2)

# 8 Joint Attempt (ML 7-2)

C's

# 9 Brandon's Princess (ML 4-1)

Corinthian Melody has earned Beyer Speed figures in each of her last three contests that are equal to or better than par for today's class level.  Joint Attempt has finished in the money her last two times out, both at today's class level.  Today will be her first time trying the seven furlong distance.  Brandon's Princess should be quick early, and may be the one that they have to chase down.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 7,8 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 7,8 $20.00

$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 6 with 7,8 $10.00

$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 9 $10.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:02 EDT / 3:02 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/20/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Results

Race 5 - # 5 Solemnly Swear (Final Odds 2.90) - No Selection

Race 6 - # 1 Ulanbator (2.50) - No Selection

Race 7 - # 4 Amber Morning (8.90) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 8 Border Song (Fr) (2.70) - No Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Stormy Rush (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 6 Alguna (3.10) - "A" Selection

I wrote in the preview that if he beats me he beats me; well, Solemnly Swear beat me, as he knocked me out in the very first leg, passing # 4 Talon's of Tuscany (0.70*) in the turn and then holding off # 2 Joh's Gone Wild (2.60) in the stretch to win by a neck.  

# 7 Successful Runner (2.00*) lost the photo in Race 6 after leading most of the way.  He was over ten lengths clear of the Show horse, # 5 Mr. Besilu (2.20), at the wire.  In Race 8 we saw that # 7 Declan's Warrior (0.90*) needed the race off the long layoff, while our hopes that the lone speed of # 4 Closerwalk (6.30) would wire the field were dashed when that one faded in the stretch.  We had the winners in the final two legs; but the fact that they were both well clear at the wire suggests that we may have gone deeper in those two events than was necessary.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow 6 sequence of  5 / 1 / 4 / 8 / 7 / 6  were rewarded with a $3,288.82 payout for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.  As there were multiple winning tickets, there will be a carryover of $3,530,905 going into Friday's Rainbow Six pool at Gulfstream Park.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/20/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview

With the NCAA Basketball Tournament now underway, I wanted to be sure to wish good luck to all of you trying to win a billion dollars of Warren Buffet's money.  Indeed, I wish good luck to anyone trying to win just one dollar of Warren Buffet's money.  Meanwhile, I've been blessed with some free time in the middle of the week, and I decided that the best way to spend that free time was to take a run at today's Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park.

RACE 5 - OC 75k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Talon's of Tuscany (Morning Line 2-1)

C’s

None

# 5 Solemnly Swear (ML 9-5) is the Morning Line Favorite, and will no doubt get a lot of action due to the high Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out.  But I'm going to play against Solemnly Swear because, quite frankly, I don't believe that figure.  Solemnly Swear has run twice at today's class level on this main track and has twice finished out of the money by a combined twenty-five and a half lengths.  If Solemnly Swear beats me today, then so be it.

Talon's of Tuscany won his debut sprinting over this main track last month for Trainer Dale Romans.  Talon's of Tuscany now stretches out to two turns, and brings with him the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.  If Talon's of Tuscany shows the normal improvement one would expect from a second time starter moving to a distance more in line with his breeding, then he wins this one.  Otherwise, it will be a very short afternoon for our play.

RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Mr. Besilu (ML 5-2)
# 7 Successful Runner (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

I'm not sure what to make of the back and forth Mr. Besilu has done between turf and dirt in his career; and personally I don't like the fact that he has yet to be a serious threat to the winner in any of his five career starts.  But he's by A. P. Indy out of a Thunder Gulch mare, and that's just too much class to ignore.  Maybe today he figures it out.

Successful Runner has finished in the money in all four of his career starts, all at this level.  This will be Successful Runner's first try at eight furlongs.  I expect that the added distance makes it more likely that he grabs the early lead today and just keeps on going.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $25k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Amber Morning (ML 12-1)
# 5 Miss Livona (ML 5-2)
# 7 Lady Joyfull (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Amber Morning competed against non-claiming state-bred maidens in her career debut.  Since then it's been all turf routes, with not much to show for it.  In my opinion the return to a one turn sprint at a class level at which she should be competitive rates Amber Morning a longshot candidate.

Miss Livona has shown the ability to smoke the grass and grab the early lead against much more expensive stock.  If she gets loose early, this one could be over before they exit the turn.  Lady Joyfull took the Place the last time she competed at this class level.  Expect Jockey Luis Saez to seek out a stalking trip for Lady Joyfull right behind Miss Livona.

RACE 8 - Alw 35000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Closerwalk (ML 12-1)

# 7 Declan's Warrior (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

In case you're wondering how in the world Declan's Warrior, a horse that has never run for a tag in his life, qualifies to compete in a Starter Allowance, the conditions for this contest also allow for any horse that has not won since September 13; so there's the loophole.  Needless to say, Declan's Warrior is the clear class of this field; and if he's in any way ready to run after being on the shelf since August, then he should have no problem putting this field away.  I've included Closerwalk because I just couldn't bring myself to leave what looks to be the lone speed in the field off my ticket, even though it means doubling to cost of my play.

RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Imperial Robyn (ML 4-1)

# 3 Texas Rustler (ML 8-1)

# 4 Boltin' Out (ML 5-1)

# 5 Mish Mosh (5-2)

# 7 Stormy Rush (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Briefly, I'm using all except the two making their turf debuts.  All that I'm using have shown the ability to win or compete at today's level, with the exception of Imperial Robyn, who steps up to level for the first time today, but with an improving form that I believe justifies his inclusion among the contenders. 

RACE 10 - (F) Md $16k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Monjablanca (ML 5-1)

# 3 Sofialeonor (ML 3-1)

# 5 Double Interest (ML 20-1)

# 6 Alguna (ML 7-2)

# 9 Kikiy's Toni (ML 6-1)

# 10 Ah Honey Honey (ML 8-1)

C’s

None

Monjablanca took the field from gate to the shadow of the wire last time out at this level before settling for the Place.  Sofialeonor gave an effort two back at today's distance over this turf course at this class level that would get her picture taken today if repeated.  Double Interest was fighting for the early lead in her only prior turf try that was against more expensive stock; she should find things easier on the front end today.

Alguna has finished in the money in five of her nine career starts on the grass.  Today she competes at the lowest level of her career.  Kikiy's Toni showed steady speed both early and late last time out.  Ah Honey Honey is by Candy Ride (Arg) and drops a good number of rungs on the class ladder, all the way down from MSW company.

OK; that's the analysis.  We're playing it caveman style today, going with just "A's" and putting everyone on a single ticket; which looks like this:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 4,5,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,4,5,7 with 2,3,5,6,9,10 $72.00

Total: $72.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 3:01 EDT / 12:01 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/13/14 GG R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

After spending a little over two months away from the starting gate, City Chapel, the longshot claim by Trainer Victor Trujillo that we've been following, returned to competition Thursday in Race 4 at Golden Gate Fields.  Breaking from the four post, City Chapel (Final Odds 2.20) made a two wide move between horses in the turn, but then flattened out in the stretch, and settled for the Show.  For his efforts City Chapel earns $1440 for his connections, bringing his total earnings since being claimed back in August 2012 for $4,000 to $56,355.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/9/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 Mythical Storm (Final Odds 6.90) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - The Las Flores - # 3 Judy the Beauty (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Premier Steps (Ire) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 2 Goodbye Roselina - No Selection

Our single "A" in the opening leg, # 3 Nooten (3.60) seemed to have some difficulty negotiating the hill, and wound up sixth.  Judy the Beauty laughed at our analysis questioning her chances today, winning by nearly five lengths over # 4 Heir Kitty (3.90).  

For posterity's sake, the fifty cent Will Pays for the two horses to which we were alive:

# 4 Nueva Fortuna - $194.30

# 5 Swiss Peak -  $86.90

The finale was pretty much over as soon as the gates opened, as Goodbye Roselina shot out to the lead and was never headed, winning by five and a half lengths.  Swiss Peak (3.00*) tried to keep pace early but was done before they hit the stretch.  Nueva Fortuna (9.40) was stalking Goodbye Roselina right up to the point where Nueva Fortuna forgot to turn left entering the stretch, nearly wiping out the eventual Place horse, # 3 Coast Starlight (5.40).  

So again this weekend we find ourselves holding a Pick Four ticket with three winners on it; which, as you all know, pays just as much as a ticket with no winners.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 3 / 4 / 2  were rewarded with a $136.00 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/9/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the day after 'Big Cap Day, and it's the first day of Daylight Savings Time.  Yeah, I've got nothing; it's probably long past time to put these intros to rest.  So let's just get to it.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Nooten (Morning Line 5-1)

C’s

# 1 Mythical Storm (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bobby Z Man (ML 8-1)

Nooten took the Place against open company non-claiming maidens in his only prior turf sprint.  Mythical Storm is making his debut for Trainer Gary Mandella, who has won twice the last half dozen times that he's sent out a firster.  The presence of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle is an added plus.  Bobby Z Man is the only runner in the field with actual experience charging down the hill.

RACE 7 - (F) The Las Flores (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Kinz Funky Monkey (ML 8-1)
# 2 Warm Breeze (ML 4-1)
# 3 Judy the Beauty (ML 4-5)
# 4 Heir Kitty (ML 5-2)
# 5 Munnings Sister (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Judy the Beauty is clearly the classiest entrant in this field, and there's an excellent chance that when the afternoon is done I'll be regretting not just singling her in this spot.  But I can't bring myself to make her a sole "A" here, as there are just too many question marks.

I'm naturally suspicious of trainer intent whenever a top class runner returns from a layoff to compete in a Grade 3 event; and this is no exception.  It's obvious that Judy the Beauty's connections have entered her here as a prep to get her ready for the top events still to come.  And it's quite possible that while she won't be pushed to give her all, Judy the Beauty could still win today's contest on class alone.  But why ship her all the way from Gulfstream Park to run in California, except as an admission that the South Florida competition may be too much for her to handle right now?

Let's also not overlook the fact that Judy the Beauty is zero-for-six when it comes to racing on a fast dirt track.  And while there's no shame in taking the Place behind Groupie Doll, note that her previous two losses on a fast dirt track were to Starship Truffles and Beat the Blues; the only graded stakes wins for both of those horses.

Again, the most probable outcome is that Judy the Beauty flashes her class and shows the rest of the field her, well, backside, and gets her picture taken at the end of the race.  But there are just too many red flags here for me to single her in this contest.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Remise (Aus) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Premier Steps (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Oscar Party (ML 6-1)

# 10 Viva Carina (Arg) (ML 6-1)

Remise (Aus) has been competitive at this level when charging down the hill her last two times out.  If that form can carry over to the flats she'll definitely be in the mix at the end.  Premier Steps is a stakes winner at today's distance on the grass.  Note that the Jockey / Trainer combo of Gary Stevens / Tommy Proctor has a .29 Winning Percentage the last 103 times that they've joined forces.

Oscar Party just missed at this level last time out, though it's a tossup as to whether the turnback in distance will help or hurt.  Viva Carina (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed, but the nearly year long vacation is definitely a concern.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Nueva Fortuna (ML 5-1)

# 5 Swiss Peak (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 6 Ten in Excess (ML 15-1)

# 8 Chasing Hope (ML 8-1)

# 10 My Wish Come True (ML 5-1)

Nueva Fortuna debuts for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins a fourth of the time that he sends out first timers for a tag, to go with an overall .31 Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming events.  Swiss Peak took the Show at this level at today's distance over this main track last time out.

Ten in Excess flashed some early speed against more expensive stock in her debut last time out.  But that was almost a year ago, so the layoff is a concern.  Chasing Hope is by Candy Ride (Arg) whose progeny win approximately 13% of their debuts.  Also note that Chasing Hope's trainer, David Hofmans, is two for his last nine when sending out a first timer in a Maiden Claiming event.  My Wish Come True is sired by Tribal Rule, whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries 

$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 4,5 $20.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 4,5 $20.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 2,10 with 4,5 $10.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 6,8,10 $15.00

Total: $65.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:02 EDT / 3:02 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile - # 6 Winning Prize (Arg) (Final Odds 3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Santa Anita Handicap - # 7 Game On Dude (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Protocol (14.80) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 11 Abbey Vale (Ire) (2.60*) - "C" Selection

Our Pick Four play got off to the best start that you can hope for, as the higher price of our two "A" selections in each of the first two legs came out victorious.  By the way, a tip of the cap to Game On Dude, who showed he still has something left in the tank by making history, becoming the first horse to ever win the Santa Anita Handicap three times.

Neither of our "A" selections in Race 10, # 3 Oliver's Tale (3.20) and # 4 Got Even (2.00*), could make the early lead, and both finished off the board.  But we had used the winner, Protocol, as a "C" selection, so we were still alive to our two "A" selections in the final leg.  For posterity's sake, the fifty cent Will Pays for those two horses:

# 6 African Oil (Fr) - $1,464.30

# 7 Magic Channel - $3,482.40

African Oil (Fr) (7.50) was never involved; but we have no complaints regarding the effort given by Magic Channel (9.70) who ran his heart out while taking the Place, a length and a quarter behind the Winner.  So our play ends with two "A's" and two "C's", giving us two tickets with three Winners apiece.  

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 6 / 11  were rewarded with a $1,492.65 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/14 Santa Anita Mid Card Pick Three - Results

Race 5 - The San Felipe - # 4 California Chrome (Final Odds 1.40*) - No Selection

Race 6 - The China Doll - # 8 Diversy Harbor (2.60) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - The San Carlos - # 1 Sahara Sky (3.40) - No Selection

In the preview I wrote that if Sarah Sky beats me today, then so be it.  Well beat me he did, taking The San Carlos by a half length; while neither of my selections, # 10 Shakin It Up (1.40*) and # 6 Wild Dude (3.50), finished in the money.

Of course I was already beaten by that point, as California Chrome proved that he can indeed beat open company, winning The San Felipe by as many as he pleased, with our selection, # 9 Midnight Hawk (2.10) taking the Place.

So our Pick Three play produces just one out of three winners; and that's not going to get it done at any track on any day.  

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Three sequence of  4 / 8 / 1  were rewarded with a $60.00 payout for their one dollar wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

As promised earlier, here are some thoughts and selections for the Late Pick Four on Big 'Cap Day at Santa Anita:

RACE 8 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Za Approval (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 1 Lochte (ML 8-1)
# 2 Regally Ready (ML 8-1)
# 4 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Silentio (ML 7-2)

The only horse to finish in front of Za Approval in his last three races has been Wise Dan; that's what's known as keeping good company.  Winning Prize (Arg) won the Grade 2 Arcadia his last time out, which was his first time competing on the Santa Anita grass.

It seems odd to relegate the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 victory his last time out to "C" selection status, but I just wasn't impressed with the field that Lochte defeated in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  Regally Ready has yet to finish out of the money over this turf course.  Suggestive Boy (Arg) is the defending champ; but his lackluster effort last time out in the Arcadia keeps him from being an "A" selection.  Silentio was just a nose behind Suggestive Boy in last year's running of this event.

RACE 9 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Mucho Macho Man (ML 9-5)
# 7 Game On Dude (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 2-1)

A lone horse loose on the lead is always dangerous; even more so when that horse has won over $5.7 million in his career.  Game On Dude has been showing his age in his most recent efforts; but I don't see anyone in this field that can pose a serious challenge to him on the front end early; so it'll just be a matter of whether or not he can hold on late.  I expect Mucho Macho Man to be sitting right behind Game On Dude as they ride the backstretch into the final turn.  If Mucho Macho Man has to go after Game On Dude too soon, that will be to the 'Dude's advantage.  Will Take Charge may objectively be a better horse than both Mucho Macho Man and the 'Dude; but there just isn't enough pace in this one for Will Take Charge to show what he's truly capable of.

RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 Oliver's Tale (ML 3-1)
# 4 Got Even (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Protocol (ML 8-1)
# 8 Airfoil (ML 8-1)
# 10 Secretsatmidnight (6-1)

Oliver's Tale and Got Even are the quickest in this field; if either one can shake loose of the other early they should be home free.  If those two run each other into the ground, Protocol will be coming right up their backs, while Airfoil will be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace should totally collapse.  Secretsatmidnight is listed as a "C" selection because I didn't have the courage to leave a Martin Garcia / Bob Baffert runner completely off the ticket.

RACE 11 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 6 African Oil (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Magic Channel (ML 12-1)

C's

# 4 Kochees (ML 8-1)
# 9 Prospector's Trick (ML 12-1)
# 11 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 12 Presenceofagenius (ML 4-1)

African Oil (Fr) makes his North American debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, who is four of his last thirteen with such.  It's fair to presume that Magic Channel was injured either before or during his last race of 2013; toss that one and Magic Channel is riding a three race winning streak, including the charge down the hill last time out.

Kochees has taken the Show his last two times out at a class level approximating today's contest.  Kochess should appreciate the increased distance.  Prospector's Trick is stepping up in class to open company; but he displayed a late kick in his last effort that suggests that he can compete at this level.  Abbey Vale (Ire) gets Jockey Rafael Bejarano for his North American debut; an interesting move since Bejarano, among the best turf jockeys on the grounds, rarely rides for Trainer Mike Mitchell.  Presenceofagenius has yet to finish out of the money in his three race career, and just misses by a length and a head of having won all three.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 6,7 $16.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,9 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 6,7 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1 with 3,4 with 6,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 6,8,10 with 6,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 4,9,11,12 $16.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:30 EST / 3:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/14 Santa Anita Mid Card Pick Three - Preview

It's Big 'Cap Day at The Great Race Place; so we turn our eyes towards the West, as today will feature the 77th running of the Santa Anita Handicap.  The good people in Arcadia, California have put together a tremendous card for Saturday; along with the featured race with its $750k guaranteed purse there will be four other stakes, including three Grade 2's, plus the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile.  I'll be taking a look at the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita a bit later; but, for now, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on an all-stakes Pick Three in the middle of the card, Races 5 - 7.

RACE 5 - The San Felipe (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 9 Midnight Hawk (Morning Line 5-2)

C's

None

Needless to say, the entire complexion of this race changed with the scratch of # 6 Bayern, the original Morning Line Favorite (the odds contained in this post are courtesy of the revised Morning Line created after Bayern's scratch by Santa Anita's Jon White).

I expect # 7 Kristo (ML 5-2) to be leading the pack early; if it's an easy enough lead, he just might steal it on the front end.  But while Kristo broke his maiden at today's distance I think he's better suited to one turn contests; indeed, Kristo may have a better future on the East Coast, where he'd be able to compete in the one-turn miles offered in New York.  

# 4 California Chrome (ML 9-5) and Midnight Hawk should both be forwardly placed and striking the leader before they exit the final turn.  Midnight Hawk should have the edge in the stretch, as the wider post should allow him to avoid any traffic issues when the leaders start backing up.  Worth noting: California Chrome has taken on open company twice in his career, and has finished out of the money both times.

RACE 6 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 8 Diversity Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 11 On the Backstreets (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Sushi Empire (ML 10-1)
# 5 Screen Goddess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Savings Account (ML 8-1)
# 13 Full Ransom (ML 8-1)

On the Backstreets is a stakes winner over this turf course; in fact, On the Backstreets has won clear both times that she's competed on the California grass.  But both those races were won charging down the hill; so it's fair to have some concerns as to whether or not On the Backstreets form will transfer to the flats.  The same concern can be expressed for Diversy Harbor, who was impressive winning her debut here back in January, but must now prove that she can run equally well on level ground.

Sushi Empire, Savings Account, and Full Ransom have been taking turns beating each other this Winter.  I give a slight edge Savings Account based on the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Mike Smith and Tommy Proctor; but you could just throw a blanket over this trio when picking which will cross the wire first today.

Screen Goddess is another trained by Proctor, one of three in this field.  Screen Goddess looked impressive her last time out in her turf debut; a similar effort today would definitely give her a placing, if not necessarily the Win.

RACE 7 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 10 Shakin It Up (ML 3-1)

C's

# 6 Wild Dude (ML 7-2)

# 1 Sahara Sky (ML 4-1) is the defending champ; a position to which I normally give a great deal of respect.  But Sahara Sky came out flat his last time out in The Palos Verdes; and while it would be easy to just draw a line through that one because it came off the layoff, the facts are: 1) Sahara Sky had won The Palos Verdes last year off a similar long layoff; 2) Sahara Sky has a past history of performing quite well off the bench; 3) Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is known for having his charges ready to fire off a vacation.  So I'm going with the opinion that Sarah Sky's effort last time out in The Palos Verdes was not just a one off but a genuine reversal of form; and if Sarah Sky beats me today, then so be it.

Wild Dude is holding the hot hand, entering this one with a three race winning streak, including crossing the wire a neck in front of Secret Circle in the aforementioned Palos Verdes.  But I'm giving the edge here to the Bob Baffert trained Shakin It Up, who has yet to lose a Graded Stakes over this main track.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method (with a slight variation) we get:

All A Entries

$5.00 P3: 9 with 8,11 with 10 $10.00

A's with C's

$2.00 P3: 9 with 3,5,12,13 with 10 $8.00
$1.00 P3: 9 with 3,5,8,11,12,13 with 6 $6.00

Total: $24.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:00 EST / 2:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo