14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge

For those of you who like your action cheap: Registration is now open for the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge.  Registration is free; all that is required is that you be a Brisnet member, and membership is free.  Brisnet will provide free Ultimate Past Performances for every contest race.  Participation is free, as results are determined based upon a mythical two dollar Win and Place wager on your selections.

So for anyone looking for reward without the risk, this is a fine opportunity to test your handicapping skills without having to invest anything more than your time.  The contest date is Saturday, December 15.  The Grand Prize winner gets an entry into the 2013 Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas as well as $1,000 in cash and a $300 Brisnet.com credit.

Full details are available here.  Good luck to all who choose to compete.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/25/12 BHP - Race 6 - Results

Appealing Tale (Final Odds 7.8-1) made a tremendous late run in Sunday's Race 6 at BHP, making up ten lengths in the final two furlongs of the six furlong sprint; but it wasn't enough, as Appealing Tale finished fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Distinctiv Passion (3.1-1).  Belvin took the Place (2.2-1) while Manando (2.6-1) finished third.

So if you were smart enough to take the four horses in the field of eleven that I mentioned in my preview and box them in a dime Superfecta, your $2.40 investment returned $16.67.  And if you were smarter still, you ignored my selection and boxed the other three horses for a buck in the Trifecta, getting back $41.40 for your six dollar bet.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Race Form version of events is available here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/25/12 BHP - Race 6 - Preview

Race 6 at Hollywood Park Sunday is a Maiden Special Weight contest for two years olds, scheduled to be run at a distance of six furlongs over the main make believe dirt track.  The race has drawn a field of eleven, of which all but two (# 5 Distinctiv Passion (ML 3-1) and # 11 Manando (ML 5-2)) are first time starters.

The horse I have my eye on here is # 6 Appealing Tale (Morning Line 6-1).  He has the best Tomlinson Rating (395) and the best Brisnet Rating (112, tied with # 10 Belvin (ML 6-1)) for the distance in this field.  Offspring of his sire, Tale of the Cat, win approximately 17% of their debuts.  The tandem of Jockey Garrett Gomez and Trainer Peter Miller has been clicking for a Winning Percentage above 30% with an ROI of over three dollars.  Appealing Tale also shows an unbroken string of weekly workouts beginning September 24.

Granted, Miller does better when he debuts his horses in Maiden Claimers rather than MSWs; and going up against debuting two year olds from both Baffert and O'Neill is no easy row to hoe; but I think Appealing Tale is a horse that could be live at a price.

Post Time for Race 6 at Hollywood Park is 3:06 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/23/12 GG Race 8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel is one of the longshot claims that we've been following on this blog since Trainer Victor Trujillo scooped him up out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields on August 26.  Since that race, a $4,000 Claiming for non-winners of two lifetime races (NW2L), City Chapel has been competing, and competing well, against higher class competition.  He took the Place October 8 and again October 20, both times running with a price tag double that for which he had been purchased; in the former race against restricted company (NW2L) but in the latter against an open (unrestricted) field.

On Friday City Chapel again competed as part of a field of unrestricted $8,000 Claimers, in Race 8 at Golden Gate.  Like his previous race on October 20, Friday's contest was run at a distance of eight furlongs over some California grass.  City Chapel broke sixth from the gate, and, according to the chart caller, was boxed in from the half-mile pole, not getting clear until mid-stretch, at which point he had nothing left to offer.  City Chapel finished third, less than two lengths behind the winner, Outdoorsman Gene, paying $3.20 to Show.  City Chapel's share of Friday's purse for finishing third was $1440.00, bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for four thousand dollars to $6,150.00.

For those interested, the Equibase chart of Friday's race is available here, while those who prefer their charts Daily Racing Form style may view theirs here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/21/12 CD Race 8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Applauding found her way back to the starting gate, and shortly thereafter found her way back to the Winner's Circle, crossing the finish line a length and a quarter ahead of five rivals in Race 8 at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.  Making her first start in almost a year, Applauding (Final Odds 0.5-1) drifted out at the start, set the pace, battled into the stretch, and won driving, paying $3.00 / $2.20 / $2.10.

While it wasn't the dominating performance that her first two victories had been, Applauding displayed the heart of a competitor, battling Georgie's Angel (winner of last year's Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes) into the stretch before leaving that one in her wake.  Applauding's final time of 1:10.84 for the six furlongs seems somewhat less than impressive, especially when compared to the 1:10.92 Statesboro Blues put up in covering the same distance over the same track three days earlier while winning an $8k NW2L Claiming Race.  Of course, those are raw times; I haven't yet seen what Speed Figure (Beyer or otherwise) Applauding earned for her effort; it's possible that they may tell a different tale.

So what's next for this three year old filly?  Jennie Rees, in this article in The Courier-Journal, quotes Trainer Al Stall as saying that he'll be taking Applauding to Oaklawn Park for their winter meet (for those who like to speculate, here's Oaklawn's 2013 Stakes Schedule - note the American Beauty Stakes on January 20; again, just speculating). If Applauding runs her next race at Oaklawn, it will make four different tracks for each of her four career starts.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.  The important thing for now is that this talented filly has made her way back onto the racetrack.  Here's hoping she has continued success.

For those interested, the Equibase chart of Wednesday's race is available here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events can be seen here.  And be sure to check out the video of Wednesday's contest, which may be viewed here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Happy Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving Day is a jewel, to set in the hearts of honest men; but be careful that you do not take the day, and leave out the gratitude."

~ E.P. Powell


We can always find something to be thankful for, and there may be reasons why we ought to be thankful for even those dispensations which appear dark and frowning.

— Albert Barnes







Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Applauding Entered to Race Again

It's the moment we've all been waiting for (OK; it's the moment I've been waiting for):  Applauding has been entered in Race 8 at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, November 21. 

Here's a not-so-brief recap to bring everyone up to speed:  Thirteen months ago, Applauding, then a two year old filly, set a new track record at Keeneland in her debut, finishing nine lengths ahead of Sacristy.  Applauding made her real dirt debut seven weeks later in her second career start, winning by six lengths at Final Odds of 0.1-1.

Applauding was then entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes in January and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (and was the Morning Line favorite in both) but ran in neither.  Colic-like symptoms were blamed for her scratch from the former, while she was scratched from the latter because Trainer Al Stall saw something in her workout that he didn't like.

And then came nothing.  Applauding spent the next few months just handing out at Clairborne Farm in Kentucky.  Quoting Al Stall:

"There's nothing really wrong with her.  There was nothing bony, nothing to speak of.  We're going to regroup on her in thirty days, and by that time I'll get up to Kentucky, so I can get out and look at her.  She was eating everything in sight down here, but I had trouble with her weight."

Applauding returned to track workouts July 28, breezing three furlongs at Keeneland in 38.2 (22/28).  She did three furlongs again on August 5, then four furlongs on each of the next five Saturdays.  She then took a break, not working again until Columbus Day.  Her works have been steady since:

10/08 - Kee - 4F - 49.6 - 16/28
10/14 - Kee - 4F - 48.6 - 17/32
10/20 - Kee - 4F - 47.4 - 1/45
10/28 - CD  - 4F - 48.2 - 2/77
11/03 - CD  - 4F - 49.6 - 29/80 (from the gate)
11/10 - CD  - 5F - 62.4 - 33/48
11/16 - CD  - 4F - 49.0 - 12/35

Of course, as her past history shows, the fact that Applauding is entered in a race is no guarantee that she will actually run.  And, needless to say, if she does run, there's no guarantee that she'll show the same form that she did when she last competed, nearly one year ago.  But I, for one, am thrilled at the prospect of this filly displaying her talent on the track again, and am hopeful that she'll reach the heights that she seemed destined for as a two year old.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/16/12 BHP Race 5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Hey, did you hear?  Zenyatta's half-sister, Eblouissante, won her debut in Race 4 at Hollywood Park on Friday.  Which, needless to say, is not what this post is about.  Instead, we'll be focusing on the race after that one, as we continue to follow the exploits of Crown Over.

To briefly recap, Crown Over is a four year old gelding that was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff out of the ninth race at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 for $25,000.  What made the claim notable was that Crown Over had gone to post at final odds of 32.2-1.  

Normally, when a horse is claimed out of a race, the claimed horse is either the favorite or one of the other short odds entrants.  Which makes sense; after all, if you're going to purchase a horse out of a specific race, and all the horses in that race have the same price tag, it makes sense that you would pick one of the better ones (as determined by the amounts wagered).  For a trainer and/or owner to claim a horse out of a race in which the horse ran at long odds, especially odds greater than 30-1, indicates the trainer/owner believes that he sees something (ability; earning potential; etc.) in the horse that the betting public (not to mention the horse's prior connections) do not. Following the horse's career post-claim gives us the opportunity to see if the new connections were correct in their assessment.

In his first two starts for Kasparoff, both in Starter Allowance races, Crown Over finished seventh and seventh.  Friday, Kasparoff dropped Crown Over down in class, into a claiming race, non-winners of two lifetime, with a price tag of $16k.

That's right; in his third race following the claim, Crown Over's new connections decided to offer the horse for sale for nine thousand dollars less than what they had paid.

There were no takers.

As to the race itself, Crown Over, with Joe Talamo aboard, left the gate at Final Odds of 3.4-1, and was last at first call and next-to-last at the half.  Crown Over came on towards the end, splitting horses at mid-stretch and winning the photo for third by a nose, paying $3.20 to Show.  Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing third was $2,160; bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for $25,000 to $2,860.

So it seems safe to say, at least so far, that whatever his new connections thought they saw in Crown Over when they purchased him for $25k was probably a mirage.  We'll continue to track Crown Over while he remains in the Kasparoff barn and follow this story to the end; 'cos, who knows?  Maybe Crown Over turns it around.  After all, this is horse racing, and stranger things have happened.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/11/12 HAW R9 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Back on September 30, I wrote in this blog about Big Man in Black; no, not myself, but rather a three year old bay colt by Southern Image out of Beartrack Cove.  Big Man in Black was placed on our watch list after Race 2 at Santa Anita on September 29, a Maiden Claiming ($20k) in which he went off at final odds of 10.6-1 and finished eighth in a field of thirteen (as loyal readers of this blog are all too aware, I have a more than mild fascination with longshot claims that finish as would be expected by their final odds).

Big Man in Black's new owner Leonard M Friedman (on the claim, joined by Wexler Racing Stables for Sunday's entry) took him out of Southern California, where the colt was oh-for-four lifetime, and brought him to Hawthorne.  Carla Gaines had been listed as the new trainer on the claim, but with the shift to Illinois Big Man in Black was placed in the care of Trainer Frank Kirby, with Jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr getting the mount for Sunday's Race 9 at Hawthorne.

As you can see, Sunday's race was an MSW restricted to Illinois bred horses, run over a distance of eight and a half furlongs on the turf.  So with a change in distance, surface, and locale, going against the weaker state bred competition, it becomes clear what Friedman's plan was when he claimed Big Man in Black at long odds at Santa Anita.  Practically defining the phrase "well intended" Big Man in Black did not disappoint, finishing first by a length and three-quarters, paying $10.60 / $5.60 / $3.60.  Big Man in Black's Winner's Share of the purse was $19,800.00, just two hundred dollars shy of the $20k for which he had been claimed six weeks earlier.

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2 - 11/3 SA - 2012 Breeders' Cup Recap

Well, not a full recap; rather just a few stray observations regarding the two day event, with the hope that some of this information may prove useful next year.

For example, of the fifteen Breeders' Cup winners on Friday and Saturday, four were favorites:

Royal Delta (1.7-1) - BC Ladies' Classic
Groupie Doll (0.7-1) - BC Filly & Mare Sprint
Shanghai Bobby (1.3-1) - BC Juvenile
Wise Dan (1.8-1) - BC Mile

If you expect favorites to win about a third of the time, then those numbers are about right, being just one winner shy of 33.33%.

Only two jockeys had multiple Breeders' Cup wins this year: Rajiv Maragh and Mike Smith, each with two.  Smith's two victories make him the all-time leader among jockeys with seventeen BC wins.  In addition, Smith was also the winner of the Bill Shoemaker Award for being the outstanding jockey of this year's Breeders' Cup.

There was a great deal of speculation over the two days as to whether or not Trainer Bill Mott would be able to repeat his 2011 sweep of the BC Ladies' Classic / BC Classic Double.  He would not; for while Royal Delta once again won the Ladies' Classic, that would be Mott's only victory over the two days.  In fact, no trainer was able to notch two victories in this year's Breeders' Cup races, as each of the fifteen events featured a different trainer in the winner's circle, none of whom was Bob Baffert.

Nine of the fifteen BC races (60%) were won by horses that had lost their last time out; four of those nine having finished out of the money.  This group includes the D Wayne Lukas-trained Hightail, the first maiden to win a Breeders' Cup race.

Of the nine BC races run on the dirt, only two were won by horses that had previously raced over the Santa Anita main track: the BC Juvenile Fillies (won by Beholder) and the BC Dirt Mile (won by Tapizar).  Of the six turf races, only one, the BC Turf Sprint, was won by a horse (Mizdirection) that had previously raced over the Santa Anita grass.  So twelve of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races (80%) were won by horses making their debut on either the Santa Anita main track or the Santa Anita turf.  So much for the "horse for the course" angle.

My personal winner for most shocking 2012 Breeders' Cup moment was Little Mike winning the BC Turf.  It's not so much that he won; for, while his final odds were 17.3-1, he was a multi-time graded stakes winner, and therefore certainly belonged with this field; it's that Little Mike won by coming from behind.  I'd never thought that I would see Little Mike win a race where he did not lead wire-to-wire.  I was, obviously, mistaken.

As regards my handicapping, while Day 2 was certainly an improvement over Day 1, I still ended up writing the overall net results in red ink.  While disappointing, I can't call the results upsetting; after all, the Breeders' Cup events are the most difficult group of races of the year to handicap; so losses are to be expected.  I am, however, annoyed at one large error I made in my placement of wagers.  On Day 2, I had a saver wager of $2 across on Trinniberg at 13.7-1 in the BC Sprint (YAH!); I had the Late Double of Wise Dan and Fort Larned (an $18 Ticket of 2, 6, 9 / 1, 4, 5 that paid $55.80; again YAH!) along with $10 across on Fort Larned at 9.4-1 (YAH!); but for God only knows what reason, I had no part of the Trinniberg / Wise Dan / Fort Larned Pick 3 that paid $210.05 for fifty cents.  I guess I could blame fatigue; but, man, what a total brain fart.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Breeders' Cup Day One Results

Obviously not one of my better efforts, as the opposition pitched a shutout today.  Well, not a complete shutout, as tickets were cashed; but each race saw its bottom line written in red ink.  Total Net Loss on the day was $267.75.

Oh well; onto the next race.

I think I'll be passing on the live blogging tomorrow.  Not because it interfered with my handicapping; indeed, in retrospect, it might have been a better day if something had interfered with my handicapping.  Rather, it just proved to be too much to have to do between races, as in addition to posting here I was also texting and emailing out my plays to some close friends.  Again, not blaming that for the results; just stating that it's a lot more work than I had anticipated.  

More importantly, there's really not much worth reading in the live posts.  As there was no time for true analysis, or even for a decent review, there's really not anything of lasting value in those posts; and I believe the same would be true even if the results were successful.  So I think I'll go a little easier on myself tomorrow and skip this part; but we'll see.

Congrats to all who came out ahead on the day.  May your good fortune continue tomorrow.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 10 - Preview

Final race of the day; see if we can close on an up note.  Using a little trip handicapping to form my opinion.

$5 WPS 6 Old Time Hockey
$2 EX BX 6 / 2 Speaking of Which (Ire)

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 9 - Preview

Swinging for the fences; going with the invader from the North.  Hoping that the pace is fast and furious.

$5 WPS 3 Class Included
$2 WPS 1 Grace Hall
$1 EX BX 1 / 3 / 5
$1 EX 5, 6 / 1, 3, 5, 6
$0.50 TRI BX 1 / 3/ 5

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 8 - Preview

Price too good to pass up; going with # 6 Lady of Shamrock.  Two consecutive Grade 1 wins should be tough to beat.

$10 WPS 6
$2 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 4 / 6 / 9
$1 TRI BX 4 / 6 / 9

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 7 - Preview

Going with Executiveprivilege; I think she's just much the best.

$5 WPS 2

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 6 - Preview

Wide open race; looking at jockeys in a large field.  Tossing in the undefeated horse for the exotics.

$5 WPS 8 (Tara From the Cape)
$2 WPS 10 (Waterway Run)
$1 EX BX 5 / 8 / 10
$1 TRI BX 5 / 8 / 10

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 5 - Preview

Going with # 5 Jaycito; though not crazy about his lack of a win on a dirt track.  Swinging for the fences with the Exacta.  May regret leaving # 1 Atigun out of top spot; I'm betting that he doesn't last the distance; we'll see.

$5 WPS 5
$2 WPS 10
$1 EX BX 5 / 10 / 14
$1 EX 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10, 14

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo 

11/2/12 SA - Race 4 - Preview

Chalking out; well, mostly:

$5 WPS 3 (Merit Man)
$2 WPS 6 (Hazardous)
$2 EX 3 / 6
$1 EX 6 / 3
$2 DBL 3, 6 / 1, 5, 10

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 3 - Preview

Throwing # 8 Sir Allison (ML 6-1) into the mix because I like the change of pace in his last race.

$5 WPS 1
$2 EX BX 1 / 7
$1 EX BX 1 / 7 / 8
$1 TRI BX 1 / 7 /8
$2DBL 1, 7, 8 / 3

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 2 - Preview

# 9 Magical Band (ML 8-1) looks to have a pace advantage.  Have to respect the favorite, # 7 Big Tiz (ML 2-1).  # 5 Warren's Amber (ML 5-1) gets some class relief and goes back to her preferred surface.

$5 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 7 / 9
$1 EX BX 5 / 7 / 9
#1 EX 7, 9 / 5, 7, 9, 10
$0.10 SPR BX 5 / 7 / 9 / 10

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/12 SA - Race 1 - Preview

The first race of the day and the last race of the day are notorious for being overbet; and I suspect I've fallen into that trap.  I'm betting that # 11 Quail Hill (ML 6-1) will jump to the front early, and then lead the pack home.  With that in mind, my plays for Race 1 on this Breeders' Cup Friday are as follows:

$5 WPS 11
$2 DBL 11 / 7, 9, 10
$1 PK3 11 / 7 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK3 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK5 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8 / 3, 6 / 5

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2012 Breeders' Cup - Preview

It's Friday, Day One of The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita, America's Day (well, now Days) at the Races.

If you've come here looking for a run down and analysis of each of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races, I'm about to disappoint you.  Quite frankly, that's just too many races with too many horses for me to give a preview that would actually be worth reading; not to mention that almost anything I would write about each entrant would be pretty much a regurgitation of what somebody else on the net has already written.  

If you're looking for quality race-by-race analysis for free, I can point you towards the Brisnet web site, which has some Grade One insights into Friday's and Saturday's events.  If you're willing to divulge your name and email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide, containing insights from such respected analysts as Steve Byk, Jennie Rees, Mike Battaglia, and Dick Jerardi.  So while I could post several thousand words of analysis about the big races over the next two days, it's unlikely that I can top anything that's already out there.

Since my plans to be in Vegas today and tomorrow have fallen through, what I hope to do instead, Good Lord willing, is live blog how I'll be playing each of the races today, posting prior to each post time the wagers that I'll be making.  Depending on how it goes, this could be a source of later acclaim; or it could prove to be something that many will be able to point to and laugh; time will tell.

One tiny bit of insight that I can tell you is this: that which makes The Breeders' Cup races unique, is that each field is comprised of nothing but top of the line horses; so no matter who you land on in any given race, you're going to be betting on a quality horse.  Because of that, these races are a bargain hunter's dream.  For example, where else but in a Breeders' Cup race are you going to find a horse like Lady of Shamrock, winner of Grade One races her last two times out, and just a nose away from five consecutive stakes victories, with Morning Line odds of 12-1?  Or My Miss Aurelia, six-for-six lifetime, half of those coming in Grade One races, with a Morning Line of 4-1?  So if you're the type that likes to swing for the fences and go for price, these races are for you.

The other tip I would give to all who are reading this is: be flexible.  Be ready to change your plans if and when new data becomes available.  Remember the Life At Ten Incident; sometimes key information doesn't become known until just a few minutes prior to post.  So be alert to how the track is playing; watch the board to see which horses are getting ignored by the public; observe which jockey(s) seems to know exactly which lane to take to the finish line in the stretch; and don't be afraid to re-think your opinion in light of new facts.

And finally, above all: HAVE FUN.  If you're a horse player, these are your events.  This is where you get to see the best compete against the best, in pretty much every category imaginable.  Enjoy the competition; enjoy the improvement of the breed; enjoy watching these great athletes strut their stuff; enjoy yourself; because if you're not having fun, why bother?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo