9/29/22 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Red Devil (Final Odds 0.70*) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 3 Twice the Price (6.20) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 Chikara (2.60) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Ragan's Jet (2.00) - "A" Selection

On the down side, going five deep (in a seven horse field) just to watch the odds-on Post Time Favorite win the opening leg by daylight is not exactly expert handicapping.  In my defense, had I known that Red Devil would go to Post at 0.70* (off a 5-2 Morning Line) I would have adjusted my play accordingly.

On the up side, I was correct to play against Morning Line & Post Time Favorite # 7 Cole Spur (1.90*) in the second leg, as Cole Spur had to settle for the Show dough.  Unfortunately, I didn't select the correct runner in the second leg, as I did not expect Twice the Price, who entered Thursday's contest with a Lifetime record of one-for-twenty-one, to decide that tonight was the night for him to capture career victory number two.

Additional pluses included getting two "A" Selections home (including my big ticket single) to end the sequence, neither of whom was the Post Time Favorite.  Add up all those pluses, and Thursday was still a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 3 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $111.15 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/29/22 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"Theory looks well on paper, but does not amount to anything without practice." - Josh Billings

Less than twenty-four hours away from Opening Day @ Santa Anita; and while I'm looking forward to the Fall Meeting in Arcadia, I decided that I would like try my hand at a little nighttime racing this Thursday evening.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 I'm Crenshaw (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 2 Spirit of Spoatie (ML 6-1)

# 4 Red Devil (ML 5-2)

# 6 Hit One Out (ML 9-2)

# 7 Canonize (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Hopgun (ML 15-1)

# 5 Mr Oklahoma City (ML 5-1)

I'm Crenshaw took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out.  Whether the additional seventy yards that I'm Crenshaw will have to travel tonight will prove to be a blessing or a curse remains to be seen.

Spirit of Spoatie, returning from a multi-month vacation, is a multi-time winner over this main track.  Spirit of Spoatie fits well here with the contenders.  Red Devil graduated by daylight over this main track last time out.

Hit One Out projects to be the early leader here, and Hit One Out could be the one that they'll have to run down in the stretch to win.  Canonize closed well last time out; perhaps Canonize is sitting on a big one.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Directional (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Weird Year (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Twice the Price (ML 6-1)

# 4 Elusive Freud (ML 15-1)

# 5 Golden Zip (ML 20-1)

# 6 True Diamond (ML 8-1)

# 7 Cole Spur (ML 5-2)

# 8 God Help Us (ML 8-1)

# 9 Texas Prado (ML 10-1)

Note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $10k; at least, that's what is says in the conditions.  However, Oklahoma bred Golden Zip is listed in the program as being for sale at the same $7.5k as everyone else; so make of that what you will.

Directional, trained by Steve Asmussen, returns to competition after being on the bench for over a year.  Directional's workout at Louisiana Downs earlier this month suggests that he's ready to roll.  Weird Year took the Place at this class level last time out, and Weird Year could move up going second off the layoff.

I decided to fade the Morning Line Favorite Cole Spur in this contest.  Typically I go out of my way to back class droppers, and Cole Spur certainly falls into that category in this event, having taken the Place against much more expensive stock at Churchill Downs back in June.  However, after that race at CD Cole Spur had to take some time off; and when he showed up at Saratoga Cole Spur certainly wasn't the same horse that he had been; and now Cole Spur turns up at Remington Park priced to sell.

If Cole Spur returns to the form that he showed earlier this year, then I'm going to look very foolish for not using him on my main ticket.  But this is the stand that I'm taking, as I relegate Cole Spur to backup "C" Selection status.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $15k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Chikara (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Summer Sangria (ML 4-1)

# 7 Miss B (ML 8-1)

# 10 Casino Queen (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Becky's Tattoo (ML 15-1)

# 2 Visual Magic (ML 15-1)

# 8 Faded Memories (ML 15-1)

# 9 Stalemate (ML 12-1)

# 11 Skycat (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Shedialed Burreaux (ML 8-1) and # 6 Telling Time (ML 10-1)

Note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this race is $20k; so if you wish to purchase Casino Queen, it will cost you an extra $5k.

Chikara, trained by Steve Asmussen, drops in class and cuts back in distance; both of which should work to Chikara's favor.  Chikara also boasts a couple of solid works over the main track in preparation for this contest.

Summer Sangria took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit for a different barn.  Miss B should benefit from having to travel only five furlongs tonight.  Casino Queen did a lot of the heavy lifting on the front end last time out; perhaps Casino Queen moves up off that effort.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] ALW NC - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Ragan's Jet (ML 5-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 La Morena (ML 8-1)
# 2 Bring It On Baby (ML 10-1)

# 4 Sunday Flashback (ML 6-5)

# 5 Stormieis Blue (ML 12-1)

# 6 Our Bet (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 3 Sinnin N Grinnin (ML 6-1)

There are no conditions for this allowance race.  So any Oklahoma bred filly or mare, three years old or upward, could have been entered here.

So here's where I decided to single.  Sunday Flashback is the Morning Line Favorite; but I don't think Sunday Flashback is quick enough to stay with Ragan's Jet at the five and a half furlong distance.  Our Bet could be a pace presence early; but I don't think Our Bet is in the same class as Ragan's Jet; at least, not yet.  So for this leg it's Ragan's Jet solo on the big ticket, with all other entrants being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 3 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7 with 1,2 with 3,4,7,10 with 7 $20.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 3 with 7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3 with 7 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 1,2,8,9,11 with 7 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 $2.50

Total: $30.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/20/22 Presque Isle Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 4 Elsa's Rocket (Final Odds 11.10) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 3 Shammah (0.70*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Tudox Rue Majestic (3.50) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Believeinholidays (10.70) - "B" Selection

Make Elsa's Rocket a "B" Selection, and I cash.  Or make Believeinholidays an "A" Selection, and I cash.  But since neither of those things happened Tuesday, I contribute.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 11 Holy Truth (9.00) - $415.45 Finish: 4th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 1 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $1,107.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/20/22 Presque Isle Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

"Life always offers you a second chance. It's called tomorrow." - Dylan Thomas

Yes, I know.  Yesterday (Monday) was the big day for the Presque Isle Downs meet, as the card featured several Stakes, chief among them the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters.  By the way, congrats to Artie's Princess, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr and ridden by Jose Ortiz, who won that contest by a length and a half at Final Odds of 3.10.

So, having acknowledged that Monday was the big event day, why play Tuesday?  To be honest, I would have preferred to play on the big day; but real life (in the form of rescheduled appointments as well as other obligations) had other plans.  Having missed the big day, I didn't want to wait until the weekend to analyze a multi-race play.  Besides, whether it's Monday, Tuesday, or the weekend, the money is just as green.  And whatever the day, the goal remains the same: collect at a profit while contributing as small an amount as possible to the pool.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Presque Isle Downs.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Aztec Princess (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 2 Girl Afraid (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Chica Chula (ML 20-1)

# 3 Warrior's Ransom (ML 3-1)

# 4 Elsa's Rocket (ML 8-1)
# 5 Keystone Warrior (ML 15-1)
# 6 By the Yard (ML 7-2)

# 7 Wings of a Song (ML 12-1)

# 9 Honey Hauler (ML 6-1)

These are juveniles, though all are experienced at competition, with the exception of By the Yard.  Aztec Princess missed graduation by just a nose last time out at today's distance.  Girl Afraid did all the heavy lifting on the front end last time out before fading to fourth.  As that was Girl Afraid's first try at a route distance, it's fair to presume that Girl Afraid will improve off that effort.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 6 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Shammah (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 6 I Once Stood Alone (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Legend of Charlie (ML 5-1)

# 2 Camino de Santiago (ML 2-1)

# 4 Dontinvademyspace (ML 6-1)

# 5 Uncle Jock (ML 8-1)

# 7 Brumba Waffle Toes (ML 10-1)

As with Race 6, these combatants are also juveniles, except males rather than females.  Also note that all are PA bred, with the exception of Camino de Santiago and Shammah, both of whom are trained by Tim Hamm.  Further note that the two Hamm trainees are the only two runners that are not in for the $62.5k tag; this despite the fact that all entrants have seen the inside of the winner's circle just once in their respective careers.

Camino de Santiago and Shammah, as mentioned above, are the two runners in this field trained by Tim Hamm.  Including both on the main ticket would go a long way towards insuring that I have the winner in this leg; but it would also go a long way towards ensuring that the main ticket would hold little value.  Therefore I have decided to place just one of the two on my main ticket.

A key factor in my decision as to which of the Hamm pair to use was that I followed Jockey Pablo Morales.  Morales is the leading rider at Presque Isle Downs for the current meet.  In addition, Morales has ridden both Camino de Santiago and Shammah in all their career races (three for Camino de Santiago, two for Shammah).  It's fair to presume that Morales was given his choice as to which of Trainer Hamm's chargers he could ride here; and while jockeys are just as fallible at picking winners as the rest of us, I'm going to trust Morales' opinion and go with Shammah over Camino de Santiago.

But not as a single.  I find I Once Stood Alone intriguing here.  I Once Stood Alone's current form is much improved from that which he displayed over this main track back in the Spring.  Now, that improvement could be because of the change of surface; but I'm going to gamble that I Once Stood Alone will be able to bring his dirt form with him upon his return to PID.  So it'll be two deep for me in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Tudox Rue Majestic (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Ady's Munny (ML 6-1)

# 7 Sachmo (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Youmustbea Weasley (ML 5-2)
# 5 Skydiving (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bishi (ML 15-1)

# 8 Shoot Your Cuffs (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Fightin Phil (ML 10-1)

Tudox Rue Majestic, a big margin victor last time out, is two-for-seven lifetime over this main track, and looks well poised to take on the boys here.  Ady's Munny graduated against open company last time out; Trainer Brandon Kulp tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Sachmo was a winner at a nice price over the Penn National turf course last time out.  If Sachmo can bring his turf form to the synthetic then he will be tough to beat here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k B - Eight and a Third Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Holy Truth (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Believeinholidays (ML 4-1)

# 3 On Base (ML 5-2)

# 5 C the King (ML 8-1)

# 9 Tempus (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Castle King (ML 12-1)

# 4 Jingle Bells (ML 8-1)

# 6 Lebasi (ML 15-1)

# 7 Farat (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 10 Marsac (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to runners who have either:

1) Not won two races since March 20, 2022; OR

2) Which have not won three races since 2021-2022; OR

3) Which have never won four races.

Holy Truth has finished in the Exacta at this class level in each of his last two races.  In a field that doesn't boast a lot of early speed, Believeinholidays looks to be quickest, and Believeinholidays could be the one that they'll have to run down if they want to win.

On Base was a daylight winner over this track last time out after finally receiving some much needed class relief.  C the King took the Place at this class level last time out.  Tempus could move up with the drop down the class ladder.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 3,6 with 1,2,7 with 2,3,5,8,9 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,7,9 with 3 with 1 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 1 with 8 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 4,5,6,8 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1 with 1,4,6,7 $2.00

Total: $41.00

Post Time for Race  is 3:18 EDT / 12:18 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/11/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Getthemoney (Final Odds 3.60) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 9 Creative Peak (14.00) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 1 Angel Nadeshiko (15.60) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The Del Mar Juvenile Turf - # 9 Packs A Wahlop (8.00) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The Del Mar Futurity - # 7 Cave Rock (0.40*) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - # 4 Weegee (8.60) - "B" Selection

The good news is that I had a couple of very nice prices on my main ticket in the form of Creative Peak (14-1) and Weegee (8-1).  The bad news is that the previous sentence is pretty much the entirety of the good news.  Neither of my singles was able to find their way to the winner's circle, and despite going six deep in the Juvenile Turf I still couldn't find the winner in that leg.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of  8 / 9 / 1 / 9 / 7 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $54,946.48 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/11/22 Del Mar Rainbow Pick Six - Preview

"Bravery is when you walk into a battle you are not sure of winning." - Jeffrey Fry

It's closing day for the Summer Meet at Del Mar, which means mandatory payouts in all pools, including the Jackpot Pick Six.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Doinitthehardway (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Princess Bettina (ML 10-1)

# 3 Spicybug (ML 7-2)

# 4 Firsttimeforever (ML 12-1)

# 5 Lily Poo (ML 15-1)
# 6 Blessed Touch (ML 6-1)

# 7 Divinely Bolt (ML 15-1)

# 8 Getthemoney (ML 5-1)

# 9 Fourth Street (ML 12-1)

# 10 Gila (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 1 Diamonds Danzing (ML 5-1); # 12 Half Nelson (ML 20-1); # 13 Three Strands (ML 7-2); and # 14 Muteki (ML 4-1)

Singling right in the very first leg; with, unfortunately, a runner that will be on virtually everyone else's tickets anyway.  Doinitthehardway, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out, after doing all the heavy lifting on the front end.  If you're of a mind to add another to your tickets, Getthemoney is one to consider, as Getthemoney disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in her debut last time out after showing good early foot.  But for me it's Doinitthehardway solo on the main ticket, with Getthemoney and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Forgiving Spirit (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 9 Creative Peak (ML 6-1)

# 12 Atomic Drop (ML 4-1)

# 13 Evenerevenworse (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Square Cat (ML 12-1)

# 4 Brix (ML 12-1)
# 5 Essential Business (ML 12-1)

# 6 Who's Candy (ML 4-1)

# 7 Lil Richards Bello (ML 12-1)
# 8 Crosskirk (ML 20-1)
# 10 Head for Business (ML 15-1)

# 11 In Vronsky Style (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 3 Count Tolstoy (No Line) and # 14 Golden Image (ML 30-1)

For those who note such things, none of the runners in this field will be leaving the gate with the $20k price tag on their head.

Forgiving Spirit wanted no part of the main track last time out.  Look for Forgiving Spirit to improve with the return to turf.  Creative Peak will definitely be in the mix if he can bring his dirt form over to the grass.

Atomic Drop fits well at this class level, though it appears that Atomic Drop may be settling for too many minor awards.  Evenevenworse can win on any surface, and the outside draw should help Evenevenworse get a clean trip.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Princess Adaleigh (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Angel Nadeshiko (ML 5-1)
# 2 Runninwiththeboyz (ML 10-1)

# 3 Classy (ML 15-1)
# 4 Karin With an I (ML 10-1)
# 5 Infinite Empire (ML 5-1)
# 6 Brocade (ML 10-1)

# 7 Censorship (ML 4-1)
# 9 Kura (ML 12-1)

# 10 Too Bossy (ML 6-1)

My second single on the big ticket, Princess Adaleigh, missed graduation by just a neck in her debut last time out.  A repeat of that effort puts Princess Adaleigh in the winner's circle today.

Those looking to expand in this leg can consider adding the Bob Baffert trained Censorship to their tickets, as it's reasonable to expect Censorship to improve with the return to one turn racing.  But for me it'll be Princess Adaleigh all by her lonesome on my main ticket, with Censorship and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - The Del Mar Juvenile Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 De la Luna (ML 12-1)

B's

# 1 Ah Jeez (ML 8-1)

# 2 Wound Up (ML 12-1)

# 6 Dandy Man Shines (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 8 Ti Sento (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 14 Valiancer (ML 20-1)

C's

# 4 Don'tthinkjustdoit (ML 5-1)
# 5 Syntactic (ML 20-1)
# 7 Stone Point (ML 20-1)

# 9 Packs a Wahlop (ML 8-1)
# 10 President Z (ML 20-1)
# 11 Park City (ML 5-1)
# 12 Mas Rapido (GB) (ML 15-1)

# 13 Tahoma (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Buffett (ML 20-1) and # 16 Taltariate (ML 12-1)

Two year olds on the grass.  I really don't have much to type here that would constitute solid analysis.  I put De la Luna in the top slot because my opinion is that, with a cleaner trip in his debut last time out, De la Luna wins easily and would probably be favored by the public today.  In addition, if this race is going to be as wide open as I suspect it will be, might as well shoot for a price.  So it's a half-dozen runners for me on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - The Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 8 Havnameltdown (ML 4-1)

B's

# 6 Newgate (ML 4-1)

# 7 Cave Rock (ML 6-5)

# 9 The Big Wam (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Classical Cat (ML 8-1)
# 2 Agency (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mixto (ML 20-1)

# 4 Skinner (ML 8-1)
# 5 Pop d'Oro (ML 50-1)

Havnameltdown, Newgate, and Cave Rock are the three entries from the barn of Trainer Bob Baffert.  Havnameltdown garners the top spot courtesy of his already being a Graded Stakes winner.

The Big Wam seems to have improved each time he was given more distance to conquer.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Flint Stroll (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 4 Weegee (ML 5-1)

# 7 National Road (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Calsson (ML 12-1)

# 2 The Key Is Unity (ML 15-1)

# 6 Barnfield (ML 12-1)

# 8 Uncle Jeff (ML 4-1)
# 9 Halfbarberbingle (ML 15-1)
# 10 Kant Beat the Rock (ML 12-1)
# 12 Canelo (ML 6-1)
# 13 Tuskegee Cat (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Hoop Dream (No Line); # 11 El Joy (NL); and # 14 Jonas' Dream (NL)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions.  For some reason, that information is often not including in the running lines of the Past Performances.

National Road and Flint Stroll filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out.  I give the edge to Flint Stroll today because I think the added real estate works to Flint Stroll's advantage.

Weegee goes first off the claim for Trainer Jeff Mullins, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 11 with 1 with 8 with 3 with 8 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 11 with 1,9,12,13 with 8 with 1,2,3,6,8,14 with 6,7,8,9 with 3,4,7 $57.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 1 with 8 with 3 with 8 with 3 $1.80

$0.20 P6: 11 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,10,11 with 8 with 3 with 8 with 3 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 11 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 3 with 8 with 3 $1.80

$0.20 P6: 11 with 1 with 8 with 4,5,7,9,10,11,12,13 with 8 with 3 $1.60

$0.20 P6: 11 with 1 with 8 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 3 $1.00

$0.20 P6: 11 with 1 with 8 with 3 with 8 with 1,2,6,8,9,10,12,13 $1.60

Total: $68.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/3/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 8 Toto Fino (Chi) (Final Odds 8.30) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - The Del Mar Derby - # 2 Slow Down Andy (6.70) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 5 Flightline (0.30*) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The Del Mar Handicap - # 2 Gold Phoenix (Ire) (3.80) - "B" Selection

For those who had their doubts, Saturday's Pacific Classic proved that Flightline is the real deal.  The official margin of victory was nineteen and a quarter lengths; but as impressive as that may be, it doesn't nearly come close to expressing just how dominating Flightline's win was.  Just an absolutely incredible performance; one that will be remembered for many years to come.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 9 Master Piece (Chi) (2.20*) - $308.10 Finish: 2nd

# 10 Masteroffoxhounds (5.50) - $444.80 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 2 / 5 / 2  which paid $334.35 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $302.85 on my initial $31.50 investment, or approximate odds of 9.61-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/3/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“When everything seems to be against you, remember that an airplane takes-off against the wind, not with it.” - Henry Ford

It's a Holiday Weekend in the US and Canada; but hopefully all reading this are making a holiday of today.  Saturday is also a celebratory day in Southern California horse racing, as Del Mar hosts its premier event of its Summer Meet, the Pacific Classic.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as well as a couple of other Graded Stakes, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Todo Fino (Chi) (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Mr. Impossible (ML 8-1)

# 5 Redline (ML 7-2)

# 9 Exaulted (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Sunrise Journey (ML 6-1)

# 3 Finneus (ML 8-1)
# 4 Conundrum (ML 8-1)
# 6 Super Curioso (ML 30-1)
# 7 Joker Boy (ML 15-1)

# 10 Disc Jockey (ML 5-1)

For those who note such things, Sunrise Journey is the only entrant in this field that is eligible to be claimed for $40k.

Todo Fino (Chi) will be making his North American debut Saturday; Trainer Amador Sanchez tends to do well with such.  I like the way Todo Fino has been working in the AM, first at Gulfstream Park and then at Del Mar.  I especially like the gate work on 8/21.  If Todo Fino can bring that morning energy to the afternoon competition, then he stands an excellent chance of getting his picture taken when this contest is over.

Mr. Impossible returns to action after a thirteen month vacation.  The last time that Mr. Impossible competed, he took the Place at this class level over this main track.

Redline took the Place at this class level last time out.  Exaulted took the Show at this class level last time out.  Note that Exaulted will be going second off the layoff for the first time since February-March of 2021.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Cabo Spirit (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Slow Down Andy (ML 8-1)

# 3 War At Sea (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Spycatcher (ML 30-1)

# 5 Dandy Warhol (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 St Anthony (ML 30-1)

# 7 Mackinnon (ML 3-1)
# 8 Barsabas (ML 20-1)

# 9 Balnikhov (Ire) (ML 5-2)

Cabo Spirit, winner of the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course last time out, is the only runner in this field with a Graded Stakes victory on the grass.  Slow Down Andy, a two time Graded Stakes winner on dirt, will be making his turf debut here.  If Slow Down Andy can carry his speed from the main track over to the turf course, then Slow Down Andy may be getting his picture taken before the late chargers can shift into gear.

War At Sea got under the wire ahead of Cabo Spirit back in June on the Santa Anita turf course.  Morning Line Favorite Balnikhov (Ire) seems to struggle when competing beyond eight furlongs.  For that reason I'll be using Balnikhov as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Flightline (ML 1-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Extra Hope (ML 30-1)

# 2 Country Grammer (ML 4-1)
# 3 Royal Ship (Brz) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Express Train (ML 12-1)

# 6 Stilleto Boy (ML 20-1)

One of the wisest adages in horse racing is a warning to punters to not accept odds that are too short on a horse trying something for the first time.  Saturday Flightline will be competing around two turns for the first time in his career, at a distance at which he has never before battled.  In addition, Saturday may mark the first time that Flightline will need to bide his time behind the pace, patiently waiting for the proper time to pass the early speedsters.  So, per the adage, I will not accept odds too short on Flightline.

So what odds would be too short on Flightline in Saturday's Pacific Classic?  In my humble opinion, I would say 1-50.

Yeah, I think Flightline is that good.  Granted, it's still a horse race; so anything can happen.  But I see nothing to be gained by trying to beat Flightline in Saturday's contest.  So for me it's Flightline solo on the big ticket in this leg, with all other entrants to be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Master Piece (Chi) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Gold Phoenix (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 10 Masteroffoxhounds (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Dicey Mo Chara (GB) (ML 15-1)

# 3 Gregdar (ML 5-1)

# 4 Red King (ML 8-1)

# 5 Tango Tango Tango (ML 20-1)

# 6 Tizamagician (ML 4-1)

# 7 Order and Law (ML 30-1)
# 8 Tesoro (ML 20-1)

# 11 Heywoods Beach (ML 8-1)

Master Piece (Chi) won the Grade 2 Eddie Read last time out over this turf course by open lengths at a very nice price.  Master Piece also took the Place in the 2021 running of this event.

After winning his debut at a nice price, Gold Phoenix (Ire) has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in half of his North American races.  Perhaps if Gold Phoenix is a price Saturday then he'll run to his best ability.

Masteroffoxhounds ran out of gas in the stretch last time out in the Eddie Read.  However, I'm going to presume that Masteroffoxhounds needed that race off the layoff.  Masteroffoxhounds has won previously at Saturday's distance, and I see no solid reason why he can't do it again.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8,9 with 1,2,3 with 5 with 2,9,10 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7,10 with 1 with 5 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,5,6,7,8,9 with 5 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 9 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,11 $4.00

Total: $31.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:40 EDT / 4:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo