Last Fall, Applaudingcreatedquitea stir when, as a two year old filly, she set a new track record for six furlongs at Keeneland in her debut; defeating, among others, Sacristy, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes. Applauding was also victorious in her second career start at Fair Grounds, winning by six furlongs; thus proving that she could win on real dirt as well as the fake stuff.
And then came the scratches. She was removed from the Silverbulletday Stakes in January (where she was the 4-5 Morning Line favorite) when she experienced colic-like symptoms the morning of the race. Applauding was then scratched from the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (where she was again the Morning Line favorite) when Trainer Al Stall saw something he didn't like in her workout earlier that week.
“There’s nothing really wrong with her,” Stall said. “There was nothing bony, nothing to speak of. We’re going to regroup on her in 30 days, and by that time, I’ll get up to Kentucky, so I can get out and look at her. She was eating everything in sight down here, but I had trouble with her weight.”
Does this mean that Applauding is back? Well, working three furlongs is a long way from being entered in an actual race; and even if Applauding should make it back to the starting gate, there's no guarantee that she'll show her old form. But I've got to admit, I really like the idea that I might get to see this horse show her stuff on the track one more time.
# 9 Tap and Trade (Final Odds 2.5-1) grabbed the lead early in the seventh race at Ellis Park Saturday and never let it go, wiring the field and paying $7.00 / $4.20 / $3.60. # 10 Anillo (4.2-1) moved into second at first call and stayed there throughout, taking the Place a little more than four lengths behind the winner, and a little less than four lengths in front of the rest of the field. First time starter # 1 Unbridled Logic (12.4-1) was running late, gaining almost six lengths on the leader in the stretch to take the Show, a length and a quarter in front of first time starter # 8 Sammy's Bandit (5.7-1). # 12 Gefest (12.1-1) took the scenic route around the track, going four wide around the turn and finishing fifth, over ten lengths behind the winner.
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF version of events can be viewed here.
Saturday's Race 7 at Ellis Park is an MSW to be run at a distance of six furlongs on the dirt. As I write this, the race features a field of nine, as # 2 Bourbon Pride, # 5 Musicinthehouse and # 11 Gold Mate have all been scratched, while neither of the two AEs, # 13 Ledokol and # 14 Nestrovya, drew in.
Four of the horses in today's field are first time starters. Of those four, the one that I find most intriguing is # 8 Sammy's Bandit (Morning Line 6-1). Trained by Ken McPeek, Sammy's Bandit is sired by First Defence. As this is just the second crop of foals to be sired by First Defence, data is still limited, especially regarding first time starters. However, First Defence himself did win as a two year old; and the debut stats for Sammy's Bandit's Dam Sire, Dixieland Band, are more than acceptable.
Also worth a mention among the first time starters is # 1 Unbridled Logic (ML 15-1). While the inside post is hardly desirable for a first time starter, the rail is doing quite well so far this meet at Ellis Park (16.4% Win Rate in 55 sprints). Having Lion Heart as his sire would leave one to believe that Unbridled Logic will be ready to go at first asking; though Trainer Walter Bindner Jr does not seem to enjoy much success with first time starters.
All five of the experienced runners in today's race have run exactly one race each; and all five will have a new rider on board today. The mount for # 3 Glyn's Good Guy (ML 10-1) goes to Calvin Borel, who has gotten off to a rather slow start this current meet, winning only once in his first twenty-five rides.
# 7 Smokey Deputy (ML 8-1) and # 9 Tap and Trade (ML 4-1) both exit the same debut race, which was won by Circle Unbroken, who was also making his debut (Circle Unbroken went on the win the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes in his next start). It's worth noting that Tap and Trade has lower Morning Line odds than the Steve Asmussen trained Smokey Deputy, despite the fact that Smokey Deputy finished ahead of Tap and Trade in their only race. It will be interesting to see what final odds the public gives the two entrants today.
# 10 Anillo (ML 5-1) exits the same debut race as Glyn's Good Guy, where they finished 4th and 5th, respectively. Personally, I think Glyn's Good Guy made the better effort of the two in that contest, as GGG was up near the pace in the early part of the race before fading, while Anillo was well back throughout. Still, Anillo's trainer Eduardo Caramori does quite well in MSW races, as well as with today's move of adding blinkers to his horse.
The horse I landed on is # 12 Gefest (ML 8-1), the invader from Mountaineer. Of today's second time starters, Gefest is the only one to have finished in the money in his debut. Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko does quite well when he ships, and wins more than his fair share when bringing back a beaten favorite. The far outside post is a concern; but hopefully it will allow Gefest to avoid any of the potential trouble that often crops up when two year olds start bouncing off each other.
Post time is scheduled for 5:00 EDT / 2:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
As near as I can tell, Speedinthruthecity, the filly who beat the boys in her debut June 21, is the only other horse to exit the key race so far; as she took the Place, behind Executiveprivilege, in the LandaluceStakes on July 14. The other entrants in the key race, in their respective order of finish on June 21, are: Salutos Amigos; Rob's Pal; Collation; and Boozer.
# 5 Tribal Jewel (Final Odds 8.6-1) raced wide throughout, and lost serious ground in the turn. Tribal Jewel did move closer to the leaders in the stretch, but was never a serious threat to the winner, # 7 Grumpy Small Mouth.(6.6-1), finishing 6th, five and a quarter lengths back.
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version is available here.
The third race at Del Mar Friday is a first level allowance for state bred or sired three year olds and up, set to be run at a distance of five furlongs on some California grass. My play here is # 5 Tribal Jewel (Morning Line 8-1), a three year old gelding by Tribal Rule. Tribal Jewel won his debut over the dirt at Santa Anita in a race that went key when the 4th and 6th place finishers (Heart Fever and La Mano Nera, respectively) won their next time out.
The Del Mar turf tends to be a good surface for dirt winners, and there should be enough early speed in this race for Tribal Jewel to be coming at late. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does well enough with horses coming off a long layoff, and the price is sure to be right.
Post Time is scheduled for 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
# 4 French Alps (Final Odds 6.2-1) bumped at the start, bumped twice in the stretch, came from behind to win the 3rd Race at Del Mar Thursday by a length, paying $14.40 / $6.60 / $4.40. # 1 Flamboyance (3.2-1) lead most of the way, was passed by the winner in the stretch after the pair performed their version of The Bump, and held a clear second, nearly five lengths in front of # 9 Warren's Sugarbuzz (36.4-1), who nosed out the Post Time favorite, # 5 Ella Bea Awesome (1.1-1), for the Show. Meanwhile, the horse I landed on, # 12 Amy's Cashin In (6.2-1), was last at first call, five and a quarter lengths behind the leader, and finished seventh, nine lengths back.
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race may be found here, while the DRF version is available over here.
The 3rd Race at Del Mar Thursday is a $40k Maiden Claiming for two year old California bred (or sired) fillies, scheduled to be run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the not dirt main track. As I write this, the original field of twelve has already seen two scratches, including the # 7 It's Aine, who was discussed in the key race comment of 7/24 (below).
The Morning Line favorite at 3-1, # 5 Ella Bea Awesome, is making her first drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in her fourth career start (the most starts of any horse in today's field). Though well regarded in her last race as the Post Time favorite, Ella Bea Awesome failed to hit the board, posting the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of her career. She'll be adding blinkers today, a move which Trainer Doug O'Neill has used successfully in the past, connecting at a 14% Win Rate with a positive Return on Investment.
Also expected to draw a bit of money is # 1 Flamboyance (ML 7-2), if for no other reason than because she is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano; the pair are clicking at an approximate 30% Win Rate over their last two hundred joint ventures. However, Flamboyance draws the rail, which is always a tough assignment for those making their debut; and her sire, Heatseeker, has (according to DRF's Jim Kachulis in his "Closer Look" comments) yet to have one of his offspring win their first time out.
# 9 Warren's Sugarbuzz (ML 15-1) is the only horse in this group besides Ella Bea Awesome to be dropping down into the Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time. The combination of Unbridled as her Grand Sire and Thunder Gulch as her Dam Sire would indicate an affinity for synthetic surfaces; but her Tomlinson for the distance of 266 suggests that she'd prefer to run further than today's five and a half furlongs.
# 4 French Alps (ML 6-1) is sired by Swiss Yodeler, whose offspring win approximately 11% of the time at first asking. However, Trainer Barry Abrams' Win Rate Stats over the past couple of years indicate that two year old (3% winners) Maiden Claimers (5%) on synthetic surfaces (2%) are not exactly his forte.
Speaking of Win Rate Stats, # 11 Memo to Maggie (ML 8-1) has a lot of appeal based upon the success Trainer Steve Miyadi has had in all of today's categories. Memo to Maggie has the best Tomlinson rating in the field for today's distance, and the descendants of her sire, Memo, win at an 11% clip their first time out. However, the lack of energy in her workouts, along with the break between June 17 and July 8, does temper the enthusiasm somewhat. It's possible that this horse just may prefer non-synthetic surfaces.
The horse I landed on here is # 12 Amy's Cashin In (ML 4-1); who, like Ella Bea Awesome, is trained by Doug O'Neill. Amy's Cashin In exits a key race in her initial try two back (the same contest in which Restless Ruby debuted) and took the Show (with a troubled trip) at this level her last time out, with a Beyer that showed improvement over her premier outing.
Post Time is scheduled for 3:09 PM PDT. Good luck to all.
Just a brief note to report that Lakerville, a four year old colt sired by Unusual Heat, won the fourth race at Del Mar Wednesday at Final Odds of 1.9-1.
Why is that worth reporting? Well, in addition to being his fourth Win in five career starts (not to mention being Jockey Garrett Gomez's third winner on the day) the victory makes Lakerville the first winner of the current Del Mar meet to come back and win again. Lakerville's previous triumph had come exactly one week earlier, in the second race on July 18; which, like the 25th's affair, was a five furlong turf sprint in which Lakerville left the gate as the Post Time favorite.
Certainly Trainer Barry Abrams likes to bring 'em back quick; but, interestingly enough, Lakerville was not the freshest horse in Wednesday's field. That distinction belongs to the Show horse, Red Defense. Sired by Redattore out of Air Defense, Red Defense was making his first start for trainerCody Autry, who had claimed the five year old gelding out of the second race at Del Mar on July 20, just five days earlier.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Wednesday's race can be viewed here, while the DRF version is available over here.
In addition to making my wallet lighter (see the 7/22 entries below), Beholder's victory at Del Mar this past Sunday made the last race at Hollywood on June 28 a key race.
The June 28 race was an MSW for two year old fillies, run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the make believe dirt. Final time for the race was 1:04.71.
So far as I can tell, those are the only four to have raced since the June 28 affair. The remaining horses in the key race field, in their respective order of finish, are: Travesura; Irish Presence; Awesome Annie; It's Aine; and Branding.
Note that Awesome Annie (one of only two entrants in the key race field with racing experience prior to June 28) had finished second in each of her three races prior to the key race, including the Cinderella Stakes; one could take that as further testimony as to the quality of the key race. Also be advised that It's Aine, the other June 28 non-debuter, is entered in the 3rd Race at Del Mar on Thursday, July 26, where she'll be making the biggest class drop there is, going from Maiden Special Weight into the Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time.
Solar Eclipse (Final Odds 9.5-1) stalked the pace early, raced evenly throughout, and finished fourth, a comfortable seven lengths behind Beholder (2.3-1), one of three winners on the day for Jockey Garrett Gomez. Final time for the five and a half furlongs was 1:03.78.
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF chart may be viewed here.
The 6th Race at Del Mar Sunday is a MSW for two year old fillies, to be run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the plastic main track. There will be a field of ten, as all the Also Eligibles get to stay in the barn. Seventy percent of the field will be making their career debut. As none of the three experienced horses in the bunch (Silent Ride, Suncadia, and Beholder) have posted a Beyer Speed Figure within twenty points of par, it makes sense to lean towards one of the first time starters.
The horse I landed on is # 6 Solar Eclipse. Trained by Kristin Mulhall and ridden by Corey Nakatani, Solar Eclipse was sired by Malibu Moon, whose offspring (according to DRF's Jim Kachulis in his Closer Look comments) are hitting at an approximately 14% Win Rate their first time out. Solar Eclipse's Grand-sire is A. P. Indy, whose progeny have been known to do well on the fake stuff (see the July 15 entry below). Solar Eclipse's Tomlinson Rating for the distance is a more-than-acceptable 347.
Considering all the above, and factoring in that Trainer Mulhall has won with 12% of her last 34 first time starters, it's clear that Solar Eclipse's Morning Line odds of 12-1 would be very generous indeed. While I have no way of knowing how the actual wagering will go, I think Solar Eclipse is worth a play at even half those odds. At least, in my humble opinion.
The official announcement came Saturday that Union Rags, the 2012 winner of The Belmont Stakes, has been retired due to injury. While it had previously been hoped that Union Rags would be allowed to heal and then come back to race as a four year old, the announcement makes it clear that the son of Dixie Union will no longer compete on the track.
That's quite a resume; and yet, somehow, it seems like it should have been better. Perhaps that's unreasonable; perhaps it's just plain silly. But in much the same way some baseball fans look at Mickey Mantle'sHall of Famecareer and wonder what mighthavebeen, I must be honest and say that I have similar feelings regarding Union Rags career.
Perhaps the primary reason for feeling the way I do is the way Union Rags won the 2011 Champagne Stakes, I've posted the video below, so that you can see for yourself the remarkable effort this horse made to capture his first Grade 1 victory.
Truly an outstanding performance by the eventual Belmont Stakes winner; yet it set expectations for his future so high as to be, perhaps, unreasonable. In hindsight, it's perhaps best viewed for the remarkable race that it was, rather than being judged as a portend of things to come.
Good luck to Union Rags and his connections as he moves on to stud duty.
The full Associated Press story on Union Rags' retirement may be found here.
I feel that it should be noted that Rossi Reserve's and Kiss My Swiss' victories both came against lower grade competition than that which they faced on June 24. While entrants in the key race had been running for a tag of $20k-$18k, Kiss My Swiss was victorious at the slightly lower $16k-$14k level, while Rossie Reserve's win came against a field for sale for $8k-$7k. Make of that information what you will.
The rest of the field from the key race, as near as I can tell, has not yet come back from the June 24 contest. This includes the Exacta in that race, Classy Attraction and Fast Eydie, as well as the bottom two finishers, Ambitoness and Candy's Pleasure. Note that of those four, Fast Eydie was the only one not claimed out of the June 24 race.
Thursday's 6th race at Del Mar was won by the much desired (as demonstrated by her frequent claims) Miss Oops. In addition to being Miss Oops' fourth win in her last five attempts, her victory is also notable because it means that the 3rd race at Hollywood Park on June 24 is now officially a key race; as the fourth place finisher in that June 24 affair, Roman Charity, had previously come back to win her next race, the 5th race at BHP on the Fifth of July.
As near as I can tell, none of the other entrants in the June 24 event have raced since. They are, in their respective order of finish that day: Kalk Bay, Lil Miss Macky, and Searfavoritesecret.
Back on June 23, I recommended Paralyzing Eyes as a horse to keep an eye on. For those too lazy to scroll down that far, my recommendation was based on the fact that Paralyzing Eyes, after blowing the start, had run the final four furlongs of her debut at a speed closely approximating that of the race winner. Friday, Paralyzing Eyes ran in her second career race. The class conditions were the same as the debut (state bred MSW) as was the surface (grass). Friday's race was a mile in length, which represented a stretch out for Paralyzing Eyes from her six furlong debut. Paralyzing Eyes went to post at Final Odds of 71.3-1. She broke well from the gate and raced mid-pack for a half, before running out of gas and finishing ninth, seventeen and a half lengths behind the winner, Zanbo. So while Paralyzing Eyes did not take the big step forward that I was hoping (perhaps unreasonably) that she would, her race Friday was an improvement over her initial try. I think I'll keep an eye out for her in her next race; not for investment purposes, but just to see if she continues to progress. The Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version is available here. Peace and Love, Jimbo
And now it's New York's turn, as Friday marks Opening Day for SaratogaRace Course. Opened August 3, 1863, just one month after the battle of Gettysburg, Saratoga is the oldest race track in the United States. In fact, it's also the oldest organized sporting venue of any kind operating in the Good ol' U.S.A.
Saratoga is known as the "Graveyard of Champions", and for good reason. This is the race track where Man o' War suffered his only defeat, losing to a horse named Upset; it's where Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox lost the Travers Stakes to 100-1 shot Jim Dandy; and it's where the mighty Secretariat lost to Onion (see 7/7/12 entry below).
A part of that history is the 1982 Travers Stakes. The field that day contained the three horses that had won the Triple Crown races that year: Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol; Preakness winner Aloma's Ruler; and Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo. Who would win? Answer: None of the above.
Wednesday is Opening Day for Del Mar Race Track, California's Summer paradise, "Where the turf meets the Surf. Here, let "Der Bingle" tell you all about it:
Normally, this is the type of keyrace that I wouldn't bother writing about. Most of the field has already come back, including everyone that filled out the Super High Five. In addition, the winner of this particular key race, Sidepocket Kid, ran dead last in his next outing. But I decided that it was worth a post because it helps illustrate how quick the turnaround time can sometimes be between information being available, and being exploited.
So, if you're a key race adherent, and you're playing the California tracks, knowing the results of the 5th Race at Sacramento on Sunday prior to the running of the finale at Hollywood gives you that much of a leg up in your handicapping, and maybe lets you cash one more Win Ticket in your life (in fact, maybe you also hit the Exacta and/or Quinella, as the Place horse, Coranto, came out of that June 29 race as well). On the other hand, if you're a key race follower, but don't become aware of the results and/or significance of the Sacramento race until after Sunday's activities have ended, then you lost out on an opportunity to add a little extra padding to your bankroll.
Now, obviously, nobody should be losing any significant amount of sleep because they missed out on a chance to play a horse that paid $3.80 to Win. But the point is, in today's information age, there's no good reason not to have all the relevant data you can at your disposal as it becomes available.
The bottom line: it's not just the horses that need to be quick in this game. Don't wait for news to become stale before you incorporate it into your handicapping.
A couple of months back, Dan Illman, in his DRF blog post of April 25, 2012, provided a list of the top winning synthetic Beyer Speed Figures of all time (the topic was prompted by Wise Dan's victory in the Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland, for which he earned a Beyer of 117).
Having some spare time on my hands, I decided to create a spreadsheet showing the Sire, Grand Sire, and Dam Sire for each of the horses on the list. I then went and reviewed each of the charts for all the races on the list. I decided to add in the non-winners in the listed races who had Beyer's of 108 and above (based upon Beyer's Beaten Length Adjustment Chart, an online version of which can be found here).
Those horses whose Beyers were computed using the Beaten Length Adjustments Chart are noted with an "E" following their Speed Figure.
I also decided to toss in a few "Honorable Mentions" onto the list; that is, horses whose Beyers were below the 108 cutoff. Those so added were:
Street Sense (second to Hard Spun in the 2007 Kentucky Cup Classic)
Barbeque Eddie (second to In Summation in the 2008 Palos Verdes HC)
Henrythenavigator and Tiago (second and third, respectively, behind Raven's Pass in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic)
Model (second behind Zenyatta in the 2008 Clement L Hirsch HC).
Finally, I added three horses for which I do not have even an estimate of Beyer Speed Figures, but I thought belonged anyway:
Ball Four - Winner of the 2006 Kentucky Cup Classic (note that the 2005 and 2007 winners are on the list, while Ball Four's time in 2006 was faster than both of them; in fact, it was the track record for the distance at the time)
Carriage Trail - Winner of the 2008 Spinster Stakes, in which she set the track record that Wise Dan just broke (note that the horse that finished a distant second behind Carriage Trail that day was Model)
Applauding, Hammers Terror and Atigun - Both Applauding and Hammers Terror set new track records at Keeneland at their respective distances this past Fall as two year olds, while Atigun finished just a neck behind Hammers Terror.
There are several horses that made the list more than once; for those horses, I've left their initial spot on the list in normal text, while highlighting in yellow each of their subsequent appearances. For example, Cost of Freedom first makes the list with his 115 Beyer in the 2010 Miles Tyson Stakes. When you see Cost of Freedom three more times further on down the list, those entries are highlighted in yellow.
As you view the list, you'll notice that certain names crop up again and again. Here's a few more multiple occurrences that may not be readily apparent:
Northern Afleet (Amazombie's sire) and Stradivinsky have the same dam sire, Nureyev;
Whiskey Wisdom (Verne's Baby's sire) and Raven's Pass have the same dam sire, Lord At War (ARG);
Thunder Gulch (Go Between's grand sire) and Hard Spun have the same dam sire, Turkoman;
Thunderello's (Monterey Jazz's sire) dam sire was In Reality. In Reality sired Relaunch, Cost of Freedom's dam sire. Relaunch is also the dam sire of Ghostzapper, who sired Pacific Ocean.
Grindstone (Summer Bird's grand sire) was sired by Unbridled, who is the grand sire of Zensational and Fatal Bullet, and the dam sire of Pacific Ocean.
Forestry (Applauding's dam sire) and Tiago have the same dam sire, Pleasant Colony. Forestry's sire was Storm Cat, whose name is all over the spreadsheet. Storm Cat's sire was Storm Bird, who is the dam sire to Grindstone (see above). Storm Cat's dam sire was Secretariat, who was also the dam sire of Summer Squall. Summer Squall, the dam sire of Summer Bird, was sired by Storm Bird (which, by the way, means that Summer Squall and Storm Cat have the same sire and the same dam sire).
Anyway, I'm sure if you do some digging through the data, you'll find your own fair share of siblings, cousins, and what-not. Hopefully the spreadsheet will be easily accessible for everyone by clicking the link. As always, let me know if you think you spot any errors in my work.
As expected, Miss Empire (Final Odds 5.7-1) was running late, coming on after having been sixth at the half. Unfortunately, Executiveprivilege (0.3-1) was already in front of her at that point. So Miss Empire was chasing Executiveprivilege in the stretch; and when it was all over, Miss Empire was still chasing Executiveprivilege, finishing four and a half lengths behind her, in third (Speedinthruthecity (8.2-1) took the Place).
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race is here. The DRF chart can be viewed here, while a video of the race (along with an accompanying article by Steve Andersen) may be viewed here.
RACE 5 - Maiden Claiming $20k
Officer Bavetta (Final Odds 4.2-1) was within two lengths of the leader after three furlongs; at which point Officer Bavetta advanced to the rear, finishing seventh, eleven and a half lengths behind the winner, Devgru (2.3-1).
Oh well; onto the next race.
The Equibase chart of the race is here, while the DRF chart is available here.
RACE 7 - Claiming $16k Lifetime Non-Winners of Two
Ghost N Your Heart (Final Odds 7.4-1), over eleven lengths back at the quarter, and seven lengths back at the half, came on strong to win clear by over three lengths; thus making it look as if I might actually know what I'm talking about.
I hope you all had it with me.
The Equibase chart of the race is here, while the DRF chart is over here.
The bottom line: one out of three ain't bad; especially when that one has the highest odds of the trio. If you had bet $2 to Win on all three horses, you netted yourself $10.80 in profit; and that's a good result in anybody's book.
Looking at today's card at Hollywood Park, I think I see a few horses that could be live at a price.
RACE 4 - The Landluce Stakes
# 3 Miss Empire (Morning Line 4-1) is the only entrant in this field of two year olds with a stakes victory, having captured the $100k Cinderella Stakes over this track last month. The 77 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that win matches up well with the 79 Beyer earned by likely favorite (ML 6-5) Executiveprivilege in her debut on June 28. Expect Miss Empire to get first run at the leaders, and then try to hold off the late charging Executiveprivilege.
RACE 5 - Maiden Claiming $20k
# 4 Officer Bavetta (ML 6-1) owns the best Beyer on a synthetic surface in this bunch, with the 64 that he earned over this track back on December 1, 2011. Since that 64 is the highest of his career, and that race is his only one to date at Hollywood, there's a good possibility that Office Bavetta has an affinity for this track. His recent workouts don't show a break (6/3; 6/10; 6/17; 6/24; 7/1; 7/7), and he gets a bit of a class relief, dropping into this level for the first time from the Md $30k ranks.
RACE 7 - Claiming $16k Lifetime Non-Winners of Two
# 11 Ghost N Your Heart (ML 8-1) will be making her first start in over fifteen months; but her works have been steady, and the fact that she won her career debut (at 28.40-1) suggests that she can win off the bench. Note also that Trainer Paul Aguirre does quite well with horses coming off an extended layoff (though in a very small sample). Also note that Ghost N Your Heart's maiden win referenced above was at this track at today's distance; the only race of her career fitting that criteria. Finally, today's field contains several early speed types, which sets up well for a closer such as Ghost N Your Heart.
As I write this today's scratches and program changes for Hollywood Park have not yet been posted; so the information above could be subject to change.
Hollywood's 8th race on June 21 was a Maiden Claimer ($40k-$50k) for two year old fillies, run at a distance of four and a half furlongs over the plastic main track. Six of the nine entrants in that race, including all four horses in the Superfecta, were making their first career start. Wellington Beauty was the Place horse in the June 21 race, while Ruler of the Tribe took the Show.
The fourth place finisher in the key race, Amy's Cashin In, took the Show in Wellington Beauty's win on the Fourth of July. As near as I can tell, none of the other entrants in the key race have competed since. That includes Renee's Titan, the winner of the June 21 race by a comfortable four and a half lengths.
The race that La Frambuesa and Mardi's Tough Game exited was an $8k Maiden Claimer for fillies and mares, three years old and up, run at a distance of six furlongs over a fast dirt track. La Frambuesa had finished fourth in that race, while Mardi's Tough Game had taken the Place.
As near as I can tell, neither the winner of the key race, Shandy Gaff, nor the Show horse, Kisses for Kate, have raced since. On Line Sweetie, Florida Pearl, and Exotic Valley, the bottom finishers in the key race, have likewise (again, as near as I can tell) not competed since the June 24 race; while Go Formal and Smiles Contagious, fifth and sixth (respectively) behind Shandy Gaff in the key race, finished fourth and fifth (respectively) behind La Frambuesa in her win.
So do with this what you will; but remember, as always:
IF ANY INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG HELPS YOU WIN, I TAKE ALL OF THE CREDIT; HOWEVER, IF ANY INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG CAUSES YOU TO LOSE, I ACCEPT NONE OF THE BLAME.
Author Roger Kahn is quoted as having said, "Horse racing is animated roulette." Saturday's 10th Race at Hollywood Park offered a prime example of how one can easily come to such a conclusion.
The tenth and final race at Hollywood Park Saturday was a $20k Maiden Claiming Race for three year olds and up, run at a distance of six furlongs on the make believe dirt. Entered in the race, making his thirteenth career start, was Undaunted Rally, a five year old gelding owned and trained by Rafael A Martinez and ridden by jockey Amir Cedeno.
In his three most recent races, Undaunted Rally had finished 8th, 9th, and 9th, a combined sixty-six and a quarter lengths behind the winner. Listed in the Morning Line as the longest shot in Saturday's field at 30-1, Undaunted Rally, furthest from the rail, grabbed the early lead and, to quote from the official chart of the race, "...set all the early pace on the inside and won clear..." paying $55.20 / $23.80 / $10.40.
Now, it's not unusual for horses, especially of the cheaper variety, to simply play follow the leader in any given race, falling in line behind whichever member of the field gets to the front in the early going, never passing him until the race is over. Indeed, finding the horse most likely to grab the early lead out of the gate and playing him to Win is considered by many a key strategy when handicapping the lower level races.
So could one have reasonably foreseen that Undaunted Rally would be able to grab the early lead in Saturday's final race? Well, in his twelve prior career starts, Undaunted Rally had never broken from the gate on top before. In fact, in all his prior races, Undaunted Rally had never been in the lead before, at any point of call.
Normally, when a horse improves this dramatically, a change (such as in personnel, track, distance, etc.) can be cited as a contributing factor. But Undaunted Rally shows no obvious change. He had raced for the jockey/trainer combo of Cedeno and Martinez in his two prior starts, the results of which were mentioned above (prior to that, Undaunted Rally had been trained by Myung Kwon Cho). Martinez did take the blinkers off Undaunted Rally for Saturday's race; but Undaunted Rally had run three times previously without the hood, finishing 7th, 8th, and 5th, always more than six lengths behind the winner. Undaunted Rally had previously raced at Hollywood (six times), on a synthetic surface (nine times), at Saturday's distance (six times) and at this level (Md 20k, three times) with only one third place finish to show for his efforts.
So is there anything in Undaunted Rally's Past Performances that could have provided a clue that he was about to run the race of his life? Well, maybe.
Listed below is the most recent four furlong workout on a synthetic surface for each of Saturday's entrants:
:47 3/5 - 6/05/12 - Solana Soleil :48 1/5 - 6/07/12 - I'm a Hummer :48 2/5 - 6/30/12 - Undaunted Rally :48 4/5 - 6/29/12 - Lea Von :49 0/5 - 7/01/12 - Classical Hy :49 2/5 - 6/29/12 - Pretty Boy Troy :49 4/5 - 5/06/12 - Spot of Thunder :50 2/5 - 6/17/12 - Awesome Mike
While here is the most recent four furlong workout on a synthetic surface for each of Saturday's entrants:
1:00 3/5 - 2/18/12 - Awesome Mike 1:00 3/5 - 6/20/12 - Lea Von 1:01 3/5 - 6/23/12 - Undaunted Rally 1:01 4/5 - 6/01/12 - I'm a Hummer 1:02 2/5 - 6/26/12 - Solena Soleil 1:02 3/5 - 6/21/12 - Pretty Boy Toy 1:03 4/5 - 5/13/12 - Spot of Thunder 1:04 1/5 - 6/09/12 - Classical Hy
You'll note that only one horse made the top three in both lists.
So there was a sign that Undaunted Rally might be coming into top form. Granted, it's not much of a sign; and I would strongly caution against playing 26-1 shots in the future based solely on what we've discovered here. Better still, I'll let the late Tom Ainslie caution you, quoting from his book Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing:
"A longshot wins a race. A disappointed bettor consults his Form and discovers that the longshot had been timed at 36 seconds in a breezing three-furlong workout a couple of days ago. No other horse in the race had worked so rapidly so recently. Powie! A new system is born! The player now loses eight bets in a row on horses whose records contain that particular workout angle."
The bottom line: sometimes you just have to shrug your shoulders and say, "Oh well; onto the next race."
The Equibase chart of the race is here, while the DRF version may be viewed here.
