Author Roger Kahn is quoted as having said, "Horse racing is animated roulette." Saturday's 10th Race at Hollywood Park offered a prime example of how one can easily come to such a conclusion.
The tenth and final race at Hollywood Park Saturday was a $20k Maiden Claiming Race for three year olds and up, run at a distance of six furlongs on the make believe dirt. Entered in the race, making his thirteenth career start, was Undaunted Rally, a five year old gelding owned and trained by Rafael A Martinez and ridden by jockey Amir Cedeno.
In his three most recent races, Undaunted Rally had finished 8th, 9th, and 9th, a combined sixty-six and a quarter lengths behind the winner. Listed in the Morning Line as the longest shot in Saturday's field at 30-1, Undaunted Rally, furthest from the rail, grabbed the early lead and, to quote from the official chart of the race, "...set all the early pace on the inside and won clear..." paying $55.20 / $23.80 / $10.40.
Now, it's not unusual for horses, especially of the cheaper variety, to simply play follow the leader in any given race, falling in line behind whichever member of the field gets to the front in the early going, never passing him until the race is over. Indeed, finding the horse most likely to grab the early lead out of the gate and playing him to Win is considered by many a key strategy when handicapping the lower level races.
So could one have reasonably foreseen that Undaunted Rally would be able to grab the early lead in Saturday's final race? Well, in his twelve prior career starts, Undaunted Rally had never broken from the gate on top before. In fact, in all his prior races, Undaunted Rally had never been in the lead before, at any point of call.
Normally, when a horse improves this dramatically, a change (such as in personnel, track, distance, etc.) can be cited as a contributing factor. But Undaunted Rally shows no obvious change. He had raced for the jockey/trainer combo of Cedeno and Martinez in his two prior starts, the results of which were mentioned above (prior to that, Undaunted Rally had been trained by Myung Kwon Cho). Martinez did take the blinkers off Undaunted Rally for Saturday's race; but Undaunted Rally had run three times previously without the hood, finishing 7th, 8th, and 5th, always more than six lengths behind the winner. Undaunted Rally had previously raced at Hollywood (six times), on a synthetic surface (nine times), at Saturday's distance (six times) and at this level (Md 20k, three times) with only one third place finish to show for his efforts.
So is there anything in Undaunted Rally's Past Performances that could have provided a clue that he was about to run the race of his life? Well, maybe.
Listed below is the most recent four furlong workout on a synthetic surface for each of Saturday's entrants:
:47 3/5 - 6/05/12 - Solana Soleil
:48 1/5 - 6/07/12 - I'm a Hummer
:48 2/5 - 6/30/12 - Undaunted Rally
:48 4/5 - 6/29/12 - Lea Von
:49 0/5 - 7/01/12 - Classical Hy
:49 2/5 - 6/29/12 - Pretty Boy Troy
:49 4/5 - 5/06/12 - Spot of Thunder
:50 2/5 - 6/17/12 - Awesome Mike
While here is the most recent four furlong workout on a synthetic surface for each of Saturday's entrants:
1:00 3/5 - 2/18/12 - Awesome Mike
1:00 3/5 - 6/20/12 - Lea Von
1:01 3/5 - 6/23/12 - Undaunted Rally
1:01 4/5 - 6/01/12 - I'm a Hummer
1:02 2/5 - 6/26/12 - Solena Soleil
1:02 3/5 - 6/21/12 - Pretty Boy Toy
1:03 4/5 - 5/13/12 - Spot of Thunder
1:04 1/5 - 6/09/12 - Classical Hy
You'll note that only one horse made the top three in both lists.
So there was a sign that Undaunted Rally might be coming into top form. Granted, it's not much of a sign; and I would strongly caution against playing 26-1 shots in the future based solely on what we've discovered here. Better still, I'll let the late Tom Ainslie caution you, quoting from his book Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing:
"A longshot wins a race. A disappointed bettor consults his Form and discovers that the longshot had been timed at 36 seconds in a breezing three-furlong workout a couple of days ago. No other horse in the race had worked so rapidly so recently. Powie! A new system is born! The player now loses eight bets in a row on horses whose records contain that particular workout angle."
The bottom line: sometimes you just have to shrug your shoulders and say, "Oh well; onto the next race."
The Equibase chart of the race is here, while the DRF version may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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