1/25/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Results

Race 4 - # 12 Fast Gal (Final Odds 7.86) - "C" Selection

Race 5 - # 2 Puffin (3.09*) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 7 Ms Temptation - (15.07) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 4 Hard Rye Guy - (4.36) - "C+" Selection

Race 8 - # 13 Deise Delight (Ire) - (3.12*) - "B" Selection

As can be seen above, only one runner from my main ticket managed to find their way into the winner's circle Wednesday.  Still, in the interests of fairness, I feel that I should point out that my handicapping of Wednesday evening's card wasn't quite the disaster that the above may infer.

For example, my "A" Selection in the opening leg (Race 4), # 5 Timely Secret (5.36), was only a neck  in back of the winner at the wire.  Additionally, in the preview of the third leg (Race 6) I wrote that:

"I'm against the short priced runners here (Code For Success; Casa de Goat; and Halo of Fire) because I'm not sold on their ability to handle the surface."

As it turned out, this assessment was spot on, as can be seen by how that trio of runners fared:

# 1 Code for Success (3.51) - Finish: 5th

# 4 Casa de Goat (3.09*) - Finish: 6th

# 10 Halo of Fire (3.68) - Finish: 7th

And it further turned out that the pair that I tied my fortune to for that contest, "B+" Selection # 9 Two Sixtyone (3.18) and "A" Selection # 8 Current Climate (5.59), both finished ahead of the above listed trio.  Unfortunately for me, neither Two Sixtyone nor Current Climate were able to finish in front of Ms Temptation, as they instead filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta behind Ms Temptation, taking the Place and Show (respectively).

So there were some bright spots in the analysis of Wednesday's card.  There just weren't enough of them.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  12 / 2 / 7 / 4 / 13  were rewarded with a payout of $4,830.65 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five correct collect $56.61.  May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/25/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence.  Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.  Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.  Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts.  Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent." - Calvin Coolidge

Having been unable to decide on a big ticket single in my prior attempts at Turfway Park's Pick Five, I was able to find, not one, but two on Wednesday evening's card.  Unfortunately, that number was halved by the scratch of the Jonathan Wong trained # 10 Cast No Stone in the nightcap.  Still, I like that hand I'm holding; though I really need to start getting the cost of these plays down.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $15k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Timely Secret (ML 10-1)

B's

# 13 Her Time Is Now (ML 7-2) +

C's

# 1 Satis (ML 9-2) +

# 7 Simpering Smile (ML 7-2) +

# 11 Marsanne (ML 4-1)

# 12 Fast Gal (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 2 Vivi Brass (ML 30-1); # 3 Madly (ML 15-1); # 6 Affront (ML 6-1); # 8 Heavenly Hash (ML 8-1); # 9 One Stormy Lady (ML 30-1); # 10 Rhythm Forever (ML 30-1); and # 14 Midnight Society (ML 8-1)

If not for the change of barn, Her Time Is Now would almost certainly be a big ticket single for me.  No offense to Trainer Sergio Baez, who claimed Her Time Is Now in her debut last time out; but running his stable on synthetic surfaces is not how Baez puts food on his table.

In my opinion Her Time Is Now still deserves to be highly regarded here based upon how well she ran in her debut; but I'm going to put the class dropping Timely Secret on the top of my Selections.  And if Timely Secret is hovering anywhere near his Morning Line Odds of 10-1, or for that matter even at odds half that, I anticipate backing up my play here with a Win wager on Timely Secret.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Friction (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Luna Moth (ML 8-1)

# 2 Puffin (ML 10-1)
# 4 Golden Runner (ML 15-1)

# 6 Cute Khloe (ML 4-1) +

# 7 Dogtown Diva (ML 15-1)
# 8 Dias Alegres (ML 3-1)

# 14 Lucky Ana (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 La Village Lumiere (ML 20-1) and # 13 Silent Revenge (ML 30-1)

Here's my big ticket single for the sequence, the Brad Cox trained Friction.  Those with larger bankrolls may wish to consider ranking the Jonathan Wong trained Ruis Racing owned Cute Khloe higher in their play than I did; but I'm comfortable with using Friction solo, while hedging by using the rest of the field on backup tickets.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Current Climate (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 9 Two Sixtyone (ML 4-1) +

C's

# 1 Code For Success (ML 3-1) +

# 3 Silver Stick Stair (ML 20-1)

# 4 Casa de Goat (ML 7-2) +

# 7 Ms Temptation (ML 10-1)

# 10 Halo of Fire (ML 4-1) +

For those who wish to know, the distaff runners in this field that are in for a tag are # 3 Silver Stick Stair; # 6 Easyonmyeyes (ML 15-1); and # 8 Current Climate.

Hey, another 10-1 Morning Line sitting on top of my selections!  Be nice if those were the Post Time odds.  Anyway, I'm against the short priced runners here (Code For Success; Casa de Goat; and Halo of Fire) because I'm not sold on their ability to handle the surface.  So we'll see how that works out for them (and for me).

RACE 7 - Clm $30k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Blue Norther (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 2 Fort Defiance (ML 6-1) +

# 9 Beyblader (ML 12-1) +

# 10 Yono (ML 15-1)

C's

# 3 Lemonadeatthelatch (ML 8-1)

# 4 Hard Rye Guy (ML 6-1) +

# 5 Freeze Pop (ML 8-1) +

# 6 Summer Anthem (ML 10-1)

# 12 Jay Vee Bee (ML 8-1) +

Scratch # 1 Haloo (ML 4-1); # 7 Keen Response (ML 30-1); # 8 El Ahijado (ML 20-1); # 13 Button Boy (ML 10-1); # 14 Gun Rush (ML 30-1)

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be wide open.  I feel confident that, were this a Pick Four play rather than a Pick Five, that even more runners in this field would be on my main ticket.  Feel free to use as many as your bankroll will allow for this leg.  By the way, to further underline how wide open this event is, while that 9-2 price may look appetizing at the top of my selections above, that is, in fact, the Morning Line Favorite (among the unscratched runners).

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Brooklyn Dabomb (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Green Bananas (ML 5-1)

# 12 Gin N Sin (ML 10-1)
# 13 Deise Delight (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 14 Rich Relations (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Friend (ML 20-1)
# 3 Awesome Lawson (ML 6-1)
# 5 Star of Shanghai (ML 12-1)

# 6 My Tommy Lee (ML 20-1)

# 7 She Ranup the Amex (ML 30-1)
# 8 Evie (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 4 U So Money Baby (ML 6-1) and # 10 Cast No Stones (ML 8-5)

As alluded to in the intro, the scratch of Cast No Stones turned this into a much more expensive play for me, as my main ticket went from one runner in this leg to five.  Still, it helps to look at the bright side of situations like this; and the bright side here is the potential to catch a much better payout now that the obvious Favorite has been removed from the sequence.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $12.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,10,11 with 1,9,12,13,14 $40.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 1,7 with 9 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 6 with 8,9 with 2,9,11 with 9 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 1,4,10 with 2,9,11 with 9 $9.00

$0.50 P5: 5,13 with 9 with 8,9 with 4,5,12 with 9 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 11,12 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 1,2,4,7,8,14 with 8 with 11 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 3,7 with 11 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 3,6 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 9 with 8 with 11 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 $3.00

Total: $89.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/21/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Results

Race 4 - # 10 Eclipsed (Final Odds 2.49) - "A" Selection

Race 5 - # 7 Tammy Tap Tap Tap (10.35) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - The Leonatus - # 3 Funtastic Again (1.13*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Ocean Atlantique (3.43) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Military Force (4.09) - "A" Selection

In the second leg (Race 5) I made a conscious decision to fade the first time starters in the field, and concentrate my play upon the experienced runners; specifically # 5 Shewillghostu (2.38*) and # 4 Popnfizz (5.85).

Well, the experienced runners let me down, as Popnfizz, prominent early, ran out of gas in the drive and finished 8th; while Shewillghostu waited too long to shift into gear, and, despite showing good foot late, could do no better than 4th.  Still, I feel my strategy vindicated, at least to some small extent, by the fact that the winner of Race 5, while a first time starter, was not one of the two primary debut runners in the eyes of the betting public: the Wesley Ward trained # 10 Opening Act (3.03), who would finish third; and the Brad Cox trained # 8 Cash 'Em In (6.91) who crossed under the wire next to last.  So I was correct in my assessment of the Ward and Cox pair.  Unfortunately, it made no difference to my bottom line.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  10 / 7 / 3 / 1 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $1,502.02 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five correct collect $17.98; myself included, as I had four out of five on three of my tickets.  So I get back $53.94 of my $98.50 investment.  

May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/21/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“If you don’t learn constantly, you don’t grow and you will wither.  Too many people wither on the vine.  Sure, it gets a little harder as you get older, but new experiences and new challenges keep it fresh.” - Iris Apfel

For a time Friday, it seemed highly probable that there would be a carryover of The Early Pick Five into Saturday's Late Pick Five.  Such turned out not to be; but, having enjoyed the challenge of playing The Late Pick Five Wednesday, coupled with getting paid thrice for having four out of five that night, I decided to stick with the quintet sequence.  No promises as to how long this phase will last, but for now join me as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $5k N3L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Eclipsed (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Blue Grass Anna (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 C V Thunder (ML 6-1)

# 6 Lady Jenneviere (ML 20-1)

# 11 Miracle Drug (Ire) (ML 5-2)+

Scratch # 2 Ain't She a Pistol (ML 12-1) and # 12 Five Roses Luna (ML 30-1)

As was the case Wednesday evening, I couldn't zero in on a big ticket single in this sequence.  And if there's one thing that will cause me to discontinue playing the Pick Five on a regular basis, it would be a regular inability to land a big ticket single.  While big ticket singles on a Pick Four play are nice but unnecessary, an optimal Pick Five play will have at least one big ticket single.

I didn't include the Morning Line Favorite Miracle Drug (Ire) on my main ticket.  Miracle Drug, like Eclipsed and Blue Grass Ana, is moving up the class ladder, all three having won at the $5k N2L Claiming level last time out.  Of those three, I am of the opinion that Eclipsed faced the toughest competition, while Blue Grass Anna earned the best Speed Figure according to the multiple Past Performances which I reviewed.  Factoring in my inability to find a big ticket single in any of the subsequent legs, I decided that three deep was one too many deep for this leg; all the more so because these three will, in some order, be the three most bet runners in this field.  So for me it'll be two deep on my main ticket.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Shewillghostu (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Popnfizz (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 I Had That One Too (ML 20-1)
# 2 Royal Words (ML 15-1)

# 3 Icy Stare (ML 15-1)+

# 7 Tammy Tap Tap Tap (ML 10-1)

# 8 Cash 'Em In (ML 7-2)

# 9 No Tappin Out (ML 8-1)
# 10 Opening Act (ML 3-1)

# 11 Varsity Blonde (ML 6-1)+

# 12 A Star for Cora (ML 30-1)

# 14 Lily's Home (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 6 Dona Witch (ML 20-1) and # 13 Will Virginia Dare (30-1)

All runners are being used in this leg; not so much because I believe all to be worthy, but because when I first sorted out my selections, I saw that there was only three entrants unassigned.  So for an extra buck-fifty, those three were added to the "C" Selections.

Trainers Brad Cox and Wesley Ward both have a first time starter in this field (Cash 'Em In for Cox; Opening Act for Ward).  I decided to effectively fade them both, as I think that the two experienced runners that I am using on my main ticket both ran well enough last time out that a repeat performance would allow them to graduate today.

RACE 6 - The Leonatus $125k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Funtastic Again (ML 5-2)

B's

# 8 Raise Cain (ML 3-1)+

C's

# 1 Accident (ML 20-1)

# 2 American Speed (ML 10-1)+

# 4 Ironsides (ML 30-1)

# 5 Mendel's Secret (ML 5-1)+

# 6 Itzos (ML 9-2)

# 7 Hayes Strike (ML 9-2)

# 9 Saturn Boy (ML 20-1)

Unlike the previous leg, here I'm giving the Wesley Ward trainee, Funtastic Again, prominence in my selections.  Raise Cain, having finished in the money in two prior Listed Stakes, gets a spot on my main ticket as well as the plus sign.  This should be a good one to watch, as well as one to watch the winner going forward.

RACE 7 - ALW N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 7 Win the Day (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Ocean Atlantique (ML 7-2)

# 5 Cool Rags (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Mohaafeth (ML 15-1)

# 3 Gunton Roe (ML 8-1)
# 4 Rogue Element (ML 30-1)

# 6 Vivar (ML 15-1)
# 8 Kentucky Mist (ML 30-1)

# 9 Rupp N Ready (ML 6-1)+

# 10 Bullseye Bun (ML 5-1)+

No surprises here, as I expect this one to be pretty formful.  Ocean Atlantique was a borderline call for me, as Ocean Atlantique may have run out of chances at this class level, having settled for too many minor awards.  But Ocean Atlantiques fired bullets in his two most recent workouts over this main track; so onto my main ticket he goes.

RACE 8 - Clm $30k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Military Force (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 5 Empire Builder (ML 4-1)+

# 6 Tuanis (ML 10-1)

# 7 Test Pilot (ML 6-1)+

# 9 Haig Point (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Nineties Country (ML 12-1)

# 4 Runaway Harry (ML 12-1)

# 8 Kunshan Bridge (ML 8-1)

# 10 Cheyenne's Colonel (ML 20-1)
# 11 Big Paper (ML 10-1)

# 12 Future Victory (ML 6-1)
# 13 My Boy Paddy (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 3 Papa's Lucky Seven (ML 20-1) and # 14 Artie's Lady (ML 20-1)

Haig Point was the borderline call in this leg; and, as in the prior leg with Ocean Atlantiques, Haig Point's two most recent workouts were the determining factor in squeezing him onto my main ticket.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 10 with 5 with 3 with 7 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 10 with 5 with 3,8 with 7 with 2,5,7 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 4,10 with 4,5 with 3,8 with 1,5,7 with 2,5,7,6,9 $60.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 11 with 5 with 3,8 with 7 with 2,5,7 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 3,11 with 3,8 with 7 with 2,5,7 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5 with 2,5 with 7 with 2,5,7 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5 with 3,8 with 9,10 with 2,5,7 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 1,6 with 5 with 3 with 7 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 1,2,7,8,9,10,12,14 with 3 with 7 with 2 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5 with 1,4,6,7,9 with 7 with 2 $2.50

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5 with 3 with 2,3,4,6,8 with 2 $2.50

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5 with 3 with 7 with 1,4,8,10,11,12,13 $3.50

Total: $98.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/18/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Results

Race 4 - # 5 Spears Mill (Final Odds 1.29*) - "A" Selection

Race 5 - # 1 Garden Belle (23.09) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 2 Night Time (2.10*) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - # 4 Ravella (1.28*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 13 Chippewa (5.02) - "A" Selection

If you scroll down to my preview for this sequence, you'll see my pre-race comments stating my reasons for playing against Night Time in Race 6.  As sometimes happens in such situations, I was wrong in my assessment of Night Time's chances this Wednesday.  Very wrong.  Had I been bullish rather than bearish on Night Time, and made this Post Time Favorite my "A" Selection for the third leg of the sequence, I would have cashed for the big prize.  Instead, I did not.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  5 / 1 / 2 / 4 / 13  were rewarded with a payout of $2,980.79 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five collect $14.98.  Since I had four out of five correct on two of my tickets; specifically, these two:

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: (5),9 with 5,7 with (2),8 with (4) with 6,(13) $8.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: (5) with (1),2,9,11 with 3 with (4) with (13) $2.00

I collect that consolation payout three times (the top ticket has two combinations containing four of the five winners).  Which means that I get back $44.94 of my $110.50 investment.  Which, while not winning, is much, much better than getting back $0.00 of my $110.50 investment.

May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/18/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“Challenges are what make life interesting and overcoming them is what makes life meaningful.” - Joshua J. Marine

Since everyone whiffed on The Late Pick Five @ Turfway Park on Saturday, January 14, there will be a carryover of $32,413.50 fed into Wednesday's Late Pick Five pool.  While I certainly prefer playing The Pick Four, free money is, well, free money; and sometimes you just have to take up the challenge and give it a shot.  Though, to be honest, I may have squandered more bullets than necessary in this shot, as I was unable to designate any of my "A" Selections as a main ticket single.  So with all that as prelude let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Spears Mill (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 9 Wishing On a Star (ML 7-2)+

C's

# 1 Broadband (ML 30-1)

# 3 Poronui (ML 9-2)

# 6 Missoni (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 2 Reverb (ML 8-1) and # 7 Awesome Ally Vee (ML 6-1)

Apologies in advance, but as time has slipped away from me, comments will be truncated.  The scratch of Awesome Ally Vee was unfortunate, as Awesome Ally Vee showed signs of being live at a price.  I'm looking for this leg to be mostly formful, though I am against Missoni, as I don't think Missoni will graduate at a two turn distance without dropping in for a tag.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Daring Do (ML 3-1)

B's

# 7 Wild Acclaim (ML 5-2)+

C's

# 1 Garden Belle (ML 20-1)

# 2 Public Garden (ML 6-1)

# 6 Sweet Sweetfantasy (ML 30-1)+

# 9 Lady Lowery (ML 15-1)

# 11Pigalle (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 8 Who Runs the World (ML 7-2), along with the Also Eligibles, # 13 Tammy Tap Tap Tap (ML 8-1) and # 14 A Star for Cora (ML 30-1)

These were juveniles less than a month ago, and more than half of this field are making their debut tonight.  Daring Do is the one trained by Wesley Ward; which is why Daring Do is occupying the top spot among my selections.

RACE 6 - OC 50k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Bad Beat Brian (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Rustler (ML 15-1)

# 5 Ready for a Fight (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Gun It (ML 8-1)

# 2 Night Time (ML 2-1)+

# 6 Friar Laurence (ML 15-1)

# 7 Bakers Bay (ML 6-1)

# 8 Blue Kentucky (ML 5-1)+

For those who note such things, none in this field are in for the $50k price tag.

Night Time needed a quick pace to close into last time out; I don't see Night Time getting that same pace setup tonight.  Also note that Night Time's last win was in an off the turf contest run over a sealed main track.  As a sealed track is perhaps the exact opposite of an all-weather synthetic surface, I'm not optimistic regarding Night Time's chances tonight.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Ravella (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Worry Free (ML 9-2)

# 6 Lucy's Cakes Fly (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Brittle and Yoo (ML 10-1)

# 7 In My Opinion (ML 20-1)

# 9 Foxy Diva (ML 30-1)
# 10 Quaria Brava (ML 20-1)

# 11 Story Hour (ML 15-1)

# 12 Wicked Intent (ML 20-1)

# 13 Social Mandate (ML 15-1)+

# 14 Hattie M (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 Scenic Masterpiece (ML 5-1); # 3 With Bells On (ML 5-1); and # 8 Sake (Fr) (ML 5-1)

I was hoping to go two deep here; Ravella with With Bells On.  But the scratch of With Bells On changed all that.  I probably should have only elevated one of Worry Free and Lucy's Cakes Fly; but, being unable to choose between the two, both find their way onto my main ticket.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 13 Chippewa (ML 5-1)

B's

# 6 Reina Bella (ML 8-1)+

# 9 Teshima (ML 7-2)
# 10 Proud Performer (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Queen Tapiture (ML 4-1)+

# 2 For the Biscuit (ML 12-1)

# 3 Ms. the Law (ML9-2)

# 5 Recite (ML 20-1)

# 7 Lution (ML 20-1)

# 8 Now Heres the Plan (ML 20-1)

# 11 All the Envy (ML 12-1)+

# 12 Story Channel (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Yoga (ML 8-1) and # 14 Midnight Favorite (ML 5-1)

Were I of the mind to invest more in this play, this is the leg where I would go deeper.  Or maybe I would single, and just roll the dice with Chippewa.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 5 with 3 with 4 with 13 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 5,7 with 3 with 4 with 6,13 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,7 with 3,4,5 with 4,5,6 with 6,9,10,13 $72.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 3 with 4 with 6,13 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,7 with 2,8 with 4 with 6,13 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,7 with 3 with 13 with 6,13 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5,7 with 3 with 4 with 1,11 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,6 with 5 with 3 with 4 with 13 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,9,11 with 3 with 4 with 13 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 1,6,7 with 4 with 13 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 3 with 2,7,9,10,11,12,14 with 13 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 3 with 4 with 2,3,5,7,8,12 $3.00

Total: $110.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/16/23 Golden Gate Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Miss Arrowhead (Final Odds 2.50) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Pretty Thirsty (5.20) - "C+" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Sally's Sassy (2.80) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 5 Explain This Audit (4.50) - "C" Selection

All the news was not negative Monday, as I did get one of my big ticket singles home (Sally's Sassy), and she wasn't the Post Time Favorite.  However, my overall impression of how the sequence would play out was very much incorrect; for while I was expecting a very formful set of races, the running yielded not one winning Favorite.  So perhaps it was for the best that I didn't invest too much into my play; as in retrospect it's clear that I didn't have a handle on the sequence.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 2 / 4 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $303.45 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/16/23 Golden Gate Late Pick Four - Preview

“Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking.  There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions.  Nothing pains some people more than having to think.” - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Santa Anita may have cancelled their card, but California is not without thoroughbred racing this holiday Monday, as Golden Gate Fields is up and running.  So without further ado let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Jaycee (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Nan Elizabeth (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Tiz a Tiger (ML 10-1)+

# 3 Simply Perfect (ML 30-1)

# 4 Miss Arrowhead (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Tropicana Girl (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 6 Austrian Navy (ML 7-2)

Going through Monday's sequence, I found myself finding very little to dislike about most of the short priced Morning Line Favorites.  While that would cause many to pass on the sequence, I'm optimistic that I can get a profit from either having a low paying winning play multiple times, or perhaps getting lucky with one of my backup tickets.  Either way, there was a conscious effort on my part to make this play as inexpensive as possible.  Yes, I know, not spending any more than necessary on a play is always the goal; but normally a play will include an expectation of chaos breaking out in at least one of the legs in the sequence.  I'm not seeing that here today.  Well, not really.

So having said all that, why am I doubling the cost of the main ticket by including Nan Elizabeth?  Primarily I like that Nan Elizabeth, despite being lightly raced, knows where the winner's circle is at this track, having visited it twice in just five tries.  I also think that Nan Elizabeth, who prefers to come from behind, will get a favorable pace set up today.  So it's two deep for me in this leg on the main ticket.  Also note that, in this leg and the three which follow, that everyone in the field is being used in some shape or form.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Dallas Alice (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Pretty Thirsty (ML 8-1)+

# 3 Night Cruiser (ML 15-1)

# 4 She's So Fancy (ML 10-1)+

# 5 Lily Pad Lake (ML 6-1)

# 6 Forever Lovely (ML 12-1)+

# 7 Forest Acclamation (ML 4-1)

# 8 Parting Ways (ML 3-1)+

Dallas Alice is one of the entrants that I had in mind when I said that there's very little to dislike about the short priced Morning Line Favorites in this sequence.  Granted, there are some upset possibilities in this field; indeed, one could make a case for several that I will not be adding to my main ticket.  I am simply of the opinion that Dallas Alice has a very strong likelihood of winning today; and if Dallas Alice wins today, I don't want to be sitting here having invested a significant amount in my play.  So it's Dallas Alice solo on my main ticket.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 50k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Sally's Sassy (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Electric Lettuce (ML 7-2)+

# 3 Thread Count (ML 9-2)

# 5 Rousing Jewel (ML 5-2)+

# 6 Majestic Oops (ML 12-1)

# 7 Ketanji (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Patsy Montana (ML 15-1)

For those who note such things, Ketanji is the only runner in this field that will be competing with the $50k price tag on her head.

Compelling cases can be made for the inclusion on the main ticket of virtually all entrants in this field who are not Sally's Sassy.  But therein is the problem; for once you open that floodgate, where do you close it?  For example, other than via coin toss, if I was to add Rousing Jewel to the main ticket because she has a prior victory at this class level, then what's my excuse for not including Majestic Oops, who also has a prior win at this class level?  Or, for that matter, why wouldn't I also include Electric Lettuce, who took the Place at this class level last time out, and who also won for fun in her only other prior race (besides last time out) over this main track?

In my opinion, Sally's Sassy has a clear edge over the rest of this field.  Not an overwhelming edge; but a clear one.  And since I just singled a 2-1 Morning Line runner in the previous leg, that means that, should Sally's Sassy win this event, the sequence is unlikely to produce a juicy payout.  So Sally's Sassy goes solo onto my main ticket in this leg.

RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Big Spin (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 3 Gabby Hayes (ML 6-1)+

# 6 Rio King (ML 8-1)

# 7 L'Enfant Dit (ML 15-1)+

C's

# 1 You Kidding Me (ML 3-1)+

# 2 Asano's Back (ML 15-1)

# 4 Sproston (ML 6-1)

# 5 Explain This Audit (ML 8-1)

# 10 Auspicious Style (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Midnight Metal (ML 12-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total.

As can be seen, this is my spread race, the contest where I sought some coverage.  This is because, in my opinion, the Morning Line Favorite, You Kidding Me, is quite vulnerable, as You Kidding Me has been hanging around this class level for quite awhile without finding his way to the winner's circle.  So You Kidding Me is excluded from my main ticket; a few prices are added in his place; and, well, we'll see what comes to pass.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 3,7,8 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 1 with 4 with 3,6,7,8 $4.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 1 with 4 with 3,7,8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6,8 with 4 with 3,7,8 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,5 with 3,7,8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 1 $0.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1 with 4 with 8 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,7 with 4 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 3,6,7 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 4 with 2,4,5,10 $2.00

Total: $26.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:20 EST / 3:20 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/14/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 11 Forglo (Final Odds 9.98) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 2 Gallant Guy (17.67) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - The Likely Exchange - # 9 Bella Conchita (16.96) - No Selection

Race 8 - # 9 Amazon Queen (2.88) - "A" Selection

So I got an "A" Selection home that wasn't the Post Time Favorite.  Unfortunately, that's pretty much it as far as positive news goes regarding my play.  And even that silver lining comes with a bit of a cloud, as I got my top selection home in the leg where I went deepest on the primary ticket; meaning that greater faith in my top pick would have yielded either a lower cost play, or a wider spread in the other legs where, as can be seen, a wider spread would have been justified.

Speaking of spreading wider, I could say that there was another positive in my play; in that my Late Pick Four play paid the same amount as if I had put it all on my big ticket single, # 6 Kate's Kingdom (1.16*) in Race 7.  To put it in the kindest terms, Saturday wasn't Kate's Kingdom day, as she finished sixth, approximately seven length in back of the winner.  So had I bet it all on Kate's Kingdom in Race 7, I would have gotten back the same amount as I received with my Late Pick Four play.

Somewhat more seriously, it could be said that a larger positive is being overlooked.  I've frequently written in this blog that, if you're gonna miss, you might as well miss big; because miss one, miss two, miss 'em all, it's all the same as far as the amount that you collect.  So perhaps having whiffed on the first three legs of Saturday's sequence can be seen as a cleansing, of sorts; while getting my "A" Selection home in the final leg provided momentum leading into my next multi-race play.  So the future remains bright; even though Saturday's results can be summed up with the phrase:

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 2 / 9 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $14,094.87 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/14/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“We must use time creatively, in the knowledge that the time is always ripe to do right.” - Martin Luther King Jr.

Weather has created some difficulties this holiday weekend for those who are fans of thoroughbred horse racing in Southern California, as Santa Anita has cancelled their card for Saturday, January 14, and Monday, January 16 (as I type this, Santa Anita is still optimistic that they will be running on Sunday).  Meanwhile, in Florence, KY, providence has brought good weather, along with a nice card featuring the $125k Likely Exchange for older fillies and mares.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Safe Travels (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 5 San Nicola Star (ML 3-1)

# 7 Taperinea (ML 5-1)+

# 9 Moonlight Rain (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Top Hat Boss (ML 20-1)
# 2 I Likem (ML 12-1)+

# 4 Singsong Bird (ML 12-1)+

# 6 Miss Super Saint (ML 20-1)

# 8 Narrows Bridge (ML 20-1)

# 11 Forglo (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 3 Clever Tale (ML 12-1)

As can be seen by my selections, I expect this race to be competitive, yet formful.  Still, all runners are being used in some capacity in this leg, because I didn't wake up this early on a Saturday just to be knocked out in the first round.

RACE 6 - ALW N3L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 3 Lucci (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Purple Dream (ML 3-1)+

C's

# 2 Gallant Guy (ML 20-1)

# 4 Unpredictable Bay (ML 4-1)+

# 5 Johny's Fireball (ML 8-1)+

# 6 Holiday House (ML 15-1)
# 7 Stubbornkindafella (ML 15-1)
# 8 Willtorun (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 9 Zoombie (ML 20-1)

Another contest that I expect to be formful, though much less competitive than its immediate predecessor.  That's primarily because the Wesley Ward trained Lucci had a very fine work over this track last Saturday, suggesting that he is ready to roll off the extended layoff, as well as demonstrating that Lucci's turf form should carryover to the synthetic surface.

Still, I chose not to single Lucci; because while Lucci has worked well over this track, Purple Dreams has shown an affinity for this surface under actual gameday conditions.  If Purple Dreams can repeat either of his two prior tries over this main track, the Purple Dreams will be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is completed.

With that, I think that two deep on the main ticket gives me sufficient coverage for this leg.  But, perhaps out of laziness, as I did in the opening leg, I've chosen to use every runner in this field in some capacity.  Just in case.

RACE 7 - (F) The Likely Exchange $125k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Kate's Kingdom (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Temper Time (ML 6-1)
# 3 Maybe Later (ML 5-1)
# 5 Grand Ave Girl (ML 6-1)
# 10 Fair Game (ML 8-1)

Nope; I'm not going to try to beat Kate's Kingdom.  I just don't see anything in her form that I could seriously count as a strike against her.  Kate's Kingdom has won over this track; she's won at today's distance; and she appears to be in top form.  Kate's Kingdom has been defeating higher quality opponents while running better races than the rest of the field in this event.

Kate's Kingdom is pretty much the epitome of a legitimate Favorite.  Because it's horse racing, where anything can happen, I've tossed in a few "C" Selections.  But as far as the primary ticket goes, it's Kate's Kingdom solo in this leg for me.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Amazon Queen (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Eiswein (ML 15-1)

# 2 Aunt Ruth (ML 12-1)

# 7 Only Time (ML 5-1)+

# 10 Loma Vista (ML 2-1)

C's

# 8 Trick Hat (ML 10-1)

# 12 Freedom Machine (ML 5-1)+

Scratch # 11 Knelcock (ML 20-1), but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Tap the Line (ML 15-1) and # 14 Decree of Love (ML 3-1), because they're scratched as well.

I'm not against Morning Line Favorite Loma Vista, as is evidenced by her presence on my main ticket.  I'm just of the opinion that Loma Vista is not the most likely winner of this contest.  But it's probably a moot point, as I think it's very unlikely that Loma Vista emerges from the gate as the Post Time Favorite.

As for prices in this leg, I was hoping that Knelcock would be the one to light up the tote board today.  But Knelcock has been benched; so if I should need a price in this leg, I'll be looking to either Only Time early or Eiswein late.  Or maybe Aunt Ruth will shock the crowd.  Anyway, those of you who enjoy playing the intra-race exotics should have a lot of fun with this contest.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 3 with 6 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 7,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 7,9 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 1,2,7,9,10 $20.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7,9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 7,10 with 4,5 with 6 with 7,9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 7,10 with 1,3 with 6 with 12 $2.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,11 with 3 with 6 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,6,7,8 with 6 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 1,3,5,10 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 3 with 6 with 8 $0.50

Total: $45.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 2:45 EST / 11:45 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/11/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 11 Miss Peabody (Final Odds 3.04) - "B+" Selection

Race 6 - # 10 Land Remembered (4.16) - "B+" Selection

Race 7 - # 3 Roc's Princess (9.72) - "C+" Selection

Race 8 - # 10 Joker On Jack (1.37*) - "A" Selection

And that's why you play backup tickets: so that when your big ticket single finishes sixth, you can still collect.  In other news, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. 😎

Getting a bit more into specifics, the possibility of the two best horses in Race 7, # 13 Laugh and Play (3.40) and # 6 Her World (1.16*) dueling each other into exhaustion was definitely seen as a possibility when that leg was handicapped.  That's why the eventual winner, Roc's Princess, was upgraded to "C+" status rather than just regular "C"; because of her ability to close.  I should also add, in the interests of full discloser, that being able to close was the reason why # 12 Seize the Marquet (13.38) was also upgraded to "C+" status.  The difference, however, is that Seize the Marquet got too close to the fast pace and wound up going backwards instead of forward.  Fortunately for me, Roc's Princess began Race 7 well towards the back, and then moved up, so much so that Roc's Princess got her picture taken when the race was over.

Since Joker On Jack was the only runner to which I would have collected in the nightcap, there are no alternate Will Pay(s) to share.  There's just what actually came to be, which was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 10 / 3 / 10  which paid $675.15 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $630.15 on my initial $45.00 investment, or approximate odds of 14-1.  Which is much, much better odds (and a much, much better return) than if I had just bet the $45.00 on my big ticket single, Laugh and Pray, as Laugh and Pray finished sixth.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/11/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"Nobody ever lost money taking a profit." - Bernard Baruch

Looking at tonight's program in Florence, Kentucky, it soon becomes clear that the back portion of the card is akin to a referendum on Trainer Wesley Ward.  Ward has an entrant is each of the final three races tonight (# 9 Sense Shines in Race 6; # 6 Her World in Race 7; and # 10 Joker on Jack in Race 8) and each one is the Morning Line Favorite in their respective contest.

I was tempted to simply build my play around the three Ward runners; that is, just key those three Morning Line Favorites, and do some combination of socking it in on what would undoubtedly be a very low paying sequence, along with digging for value in the opening leg, Race 5.  Indeed, if one wants to spin the bottle and pray for a Race 5 upset, one could go "ALL" in Race 5, and then single the Ward runner in each of the next three legs; total cost $5.50 for a fifty cent incremental play.  Or one could forsake The Late Pick Four and just play a Wesley Ward Pick Three, singling each Ward runner in the final three contests on the card, and pounding that ticket for however much one should desire.

Anyway, those were the options that I was considering until the Michael Maker trained # 13 Laugh and Play drew in off the Also Eligible List in Race 7.  That changed everything, at least for me, because in my humble opinion Laugh and Play has a greater likelihood of winning Race 7 than the Wesley Ward trained # 6 Her World does; and that's before getting to the matter of their respective odds.

So with all of the above as prelude let's get to it; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Bolts Babe (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 6 Harmonica (ML 9-2)+

# 10 Time to Race (ML 12-1)

# 11 Miss Peabody (ML 3-1)+

C's

# 1 Spring Lilacs (ML 20-1)

# 3 Happy Helen (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mischievous Doll (ML 10-1)+

# 5 Call Me Toni (ML 30-1)+

# 7 Kiss It Goodbye (ML 15-1)+

# 9 Giving Spirit (ML 10-1)

# 14 Chasing After You (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 8 Kate's Concerto (ML 5-1); # 12 Mally's Monsoon (ML 20-1); and # 13 Iguazu Falls (ML 6-1)

Based upon budget, I could go deeper in this opening leg; that is, put more runners on the main ticket (though I am using all runners in some capacity on my tickets in this race).  But I don't think that the expected payout of this sequence justifies a greater investment; but, of course, others are free to think otherwise.

I had some back and forth with myself as to which entrant should be top selection in this contest.  I was leaning heavily towards Harmonica, as the runners who are coming to Turfway Park from the other tracks on the Kentucky circuit (especially Churchill Downs and Keeneland) seem to have been doing a fine job of holding their form on the Turfway Park synthetic track.

But ultimately I went with Bolts Babe, because Trainer Jonathan Wong has been doing such an excellent job at Turfway Park with the crop of runners that he has brought with him from California.  I also like that Ruis Racing Ltd apparently has opted to retain ownership in Bolts Babe while transferring conditioning duties from Shelbe Ruis to Wong; suggesting that Ruis Racing is quite confident in this filly's ability to succeed, even when running for another barn.  So bottom line is four from this leg go onto the main ticket; all are being used in some capacity; and Bolts Babe is my top selection for Race 5.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Sense Shines (ML 1-1)

B’s

# 7 Fomo (ML 5-1)

# 10 Land Remembered (ML 9-2)+

C's

# 1 Froome (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 2 Tradeoff (ML 20-1)

# 6 Thispointintime (ML 15-1)

# 8 Where's Lucky (ML 15-1)+

Scratch # 4 De Joria (ML 6-1); # 10 Belperron (ML 15-1); and # 14 Two Sixtyone (ML 8-1)

Intuitively, that looks wrong; that is, using an even money ML Favorite as a top selection, but still going three deep.  But ultimately I believe it to be justified because Sense Shines fits into an intriguing slot.  On the one hand, there are enough questions surrounding Sense Shines to make him a vulnerable Favorite: Sense Shines has never competed on a synthetic surface; his works over this track have been no great shakes; and Sense Shines lone victory was almost twenty months ago.

But on the other hand, Sense Shines is taking an incredible class drop; so much so that you would think that Trainer Wesley Ward was allergic to him.  Such a class edge is difficult to ignore.

But on the third hand, class alone doesn't win races; you still have to get to the line ahead of the rest of the field.  So three deep here seems like a good way to go.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 13 Laugh and Play (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Roc's Princess (ML 15-1)+
# 5 Silver Sea (ML 20-1)

# 6 Her World (ML 1-1)+

# 7 Only Kidding (ML 4-1)

# 12 Seize the Marquet (ML 15-1)+

As I mentioned in the introduction, had Laugh and Play not drawn in off the Also Eligible List, then the Wesley Ward  trained Her World would have been my big ticket single in this leg.  But Laugh and Play did draw in; so it's her solo on the main ticket, with Her World relegated to backup status.

RACE 8 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Joker On Jack (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 9 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Markitoff (ML 3-1)

# 4 Snake Bite (ML 12-1)+

# 5 Awesome D J (ML 15-1)

# 11 El Cheapo (ML 15-1)

# 12 Fulco (ML 20-1)
# 13 Reux (GB) (ML 12-1)+

Scratch # 2 Luckyinkentucky (ML 20-1) and # 14 American Nightmare (ML 12-1)

Jocker on Jack is another member of tonight's fire sale by Trainer Wesley Ward.  The only reason why I didn't make Joker on Jack a big ticket single is because this will be Joker on Jack's first attempt at covering a mile; so that's by Takafumi (Brz), who fits well here on class, joins Joker on Jack on the main ticket.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 9 with 13 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 13 with 10 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,10,11 with 7,9,10 with 13 with 9,10 $12.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 9,10 with 13 with 10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 8 with 13 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 3,6,12 with 10 $9.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 13 with 4,13 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,9,14 with 9 with 13 with 10 2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,6 with 13 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 5,7 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 13 with 3,5,11,12 $2.00

Total: $45.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/5/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 6 Miranda Rights (Final Odds 1.11*) - "A" Selection

Race 6 - # 3 Maybe Later (2.93) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - # 6 Charlee O (7.05) - "B+" Selection

Race 8 - # 8 Bobbie Sox (14.18) - "C+" Selection

I was surprised that the public made Miranda Rights the Post Time Favorite in the opening leg.  As I wrote in the preview, I really thought that # 1 Donegal Arrow (2.35), who took the Place behind Miranda Rights, would get the lion's share of the Win Pool.  Sill, while my reasoning was off, my selection was right, as I had Miranda Rights as my top pick.  So a nice bit of good luck there.

Unfortunately, I wasn't quite as lucky as the sequence went on.  Maybe Later really should have been on the big ticket, just from what I wrote about her in the preview.  Charlee O deserved stronger consideration as my "A" Selection in the third leg, based upon how much she was dropping in class.

And yet, despite all that, I was still alive heading into the nightcap.  So all things considered, I have nothing to complain about; especially as regards luck.  Meaning that the best way to wrap this up is to just say:

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the two runners to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 4 Three Sport Coats (7.58) - $647.83 Finish: 6th

# 5 Miss J D (2.98) - $186.01 Finish: 12th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 3 / 6 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $938.91 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/5/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“Work like there is someone working 24 hours a day to take it away from you.” - Mark Cuban

I really don't have anything to say by way of introduction here.  Oh, I know; I can reiterate something I Tweeted earlier under the #TDiHR; that being, that on this day, January 5, forty-three years ago, Spectacular Bid won the Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita.  No, seriously; that's all I've got.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Miranda Rights (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Scat Tu Tap (ML 6-1)+

# 4 Accidental Hero (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Donegal Arrow (ML 7-2)+
# 3 Monba Quake (ML 50-1)

# 5 Noted Talent (ML 5-1)+

# 8 Raven's Nest (ML 20-1)

# 9 Connect Me (ML 20-1)
# 12 Yes Point (ML 15-1)+

Scratch # 7 Accident (ML 6-1); # 13 River in Egypt (ML 12-1); and # 14 Boudin (ML 15-1)

Okay, here's the way I see it: In my humble opinion, you either single the Brad Cox first time starter Donegal Arrow, or you leave him off the big ticket.  There's just little point in multiplying the cost of a big ticket that contains Donegal Arrow, because he is going to draw a ton of money, thus making for a severe downward effect on the pool's payout should he win.

With that being said, as you can see from my selections, there are other directions that you could go in this leg should you desire to fade Donegal Arrow.  Scat Tu Tap has shown enough early foot in each of his two turf starts to suggest that he will be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  Miranda Rights took the Place while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  Connect Me seemed to show a fondness for the surface in his first try over the synthetic last time out, albeit against cheaper stock.

So considering the large amount of money Donegal Arrow is expected to pull, should you wish to play against Donegal Arrow and try to win with one or more of the experienced runners, you stand a chance of being well rewarded.  In my opinion those are the primary options in this leg: either single Donegal Arrow, or fully fade Donegal Arrow and leave him off your main ticket.  Me?  I've chosen the latter, because I'm in a dice rolling mood.  I can imagine feeling very foolish after this contest is over should Donegal Arrow prove to be the real deal; but that's the way that I've chosen to play it.

RACE 6 - (F) ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 2 Bali Belle (ML 2-1)

B's

# 5 Crystal Ship (ML 10-1)

# 6 Tap Dancing Lady (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Legerity (ML 10-1)

# 3 Maybe Later (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Heavenly Hellos (ML 6-1)+

Maybe Later could possibly be moved up in status onto the main ticket; but I didn't think four deep was the right way to go in this leg, as Bali Belle looks like she could be legit.  Indeed, I should probably drop Crystal Ship down a notch; but if the Morning Line holds true, 10-1 on Crystal Ship is just too good to pass up.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $30k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Quick Conversation (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 5 Eclipsed (ML 12-1)

# 6 Charlee O (ML 9-2)+

C's

# 2 Miss Matchmaker (ML 4-1)

# 7 Seeking Seca (ML 6-1)+

# 9 Wicked Wonder (ML 9-2)+

# 10 Fredericia (ML 30-1)+

# 11 Abitibi (ML 7-2)+

Scratch # 1 Je Suis Rapide (ML 20-1) and # 4 It's Greek to Me (ML 30-1)

Quick Conversation took the Place at this class level last time out.  Charlee O is making a significant class drop.  Maybe Eclipsed can grab the early lead and hold on for dear life.  Had I singled Donegal Arrow in the opening leg I probably would have gone deeper here.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Miss J D (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Three Sport Coats (ML 5-1)+

# 9 Miss Lizzy (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Optimize (ML 20-1)
# 3 Forty Winks (ML 15-1)

# 6 Chica Chula (ML 9-2)+

# 7 Inside Girl (ML 15-1)

# 8 Bobbie Sox (ML 10-1)+

# 13 Ms. the Law (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 12 Midnight Mercy (ML 12-1)

Not much to say here.  All three of my big ticket inclusions have finished in the money at this class level.  Miss J D appears to have the biggest upside; but there's no way to know for sure until after the race is run.  Another leg where I may have gone deeper had I singled Donegal Arrow.

Since it met with such positive response when introduced last time out, here's how the above selections look in chart form:

OK, that's the analysis.  With the hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 8 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 6,8 with 4,5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6 with 2,5,6 with 5,6,8 with 4,5,9 $40.50

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1,5,12 with 2 with 6,8 with 4,5 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 3,7 with 6,8 with 4,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 7,9,10,11 with 4,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 6,8 with 6,8 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,8,9 with 2 with 8 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 8 with 5 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 2 with 5 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 8 with 1,3,7,13 $2.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo