"Approach the New Year with resolve to find the opportunities hidden in each new day." - Michael Josephson
Happy New Year everyone; along with a Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds! As we begin a new year, I just want to take a moment to toss out a sincere thank you to everyone who has stopped by to read these comments and share their thoughts; it is all very much appreciated. Turning back to thoughts on the day, take note that both Santa Anita and Golden Gate had to cancel their respective cards today due to weather concerns. I don't know if we should take that as simply a hangover from 2022, or a sign that 2023 is going to be another strange year. Anyway, onward we go, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 7 - OC 50k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Safe Trip Home (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Jin Tong (ML 15-1)
# 4 Aristocracy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Eldest Son (ML 8-1)
# 8 Mendel's Secret (ML 5-2)+
C's
# 10 Olazabal (ML 3-1)
# 11 Mardukas (ML 20-1)+
Scratch # 9 Steele Money (ML 30-1)
For those who wish to know, with the scratch of Steele Money, there are no entrants in this field that will be running with the $50k price tag on their head.
These are newly minted three year olds, runners that less than twenty-four hours ago were juveniles. Since all are in various stages of the maturation process, and also since this contest looks competitive on its merits alone, I decided that a wide stance was in order. Perhaps I could have gone wider still and made room for Olazabal on the main ticket; but the only prior time that Olazabal tried to go eight furlongs was on the real dirt at Ellis Park; and Olazabal barely picked up his feet in that contest. So fifty cents is all that I'll be investing on Olazabal today despite his short Morning Line odds. We'll know in a few hours if that was the correct decision.
RACE 8 - MSW - (F) Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Classic Coyne (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Awesome Ally Vee (ML 8-1)
# 7 Partyline (ML 3-1)
# 8 Tiana (ML 6-1)+
C's
# 5 Culdee (ML 5-1)+
# 10 Quiero Mas (ML 7-2)+
Scratch # 6 Lady Pele (ML 20-1)
I went back and forth between Classic Coyne and Tiana as to which should receive designation as the top selection in this leg; point being that I believe that both runners could be live at very nice prices. Yes, I'm sticking with Awesome Ally Vee; and why not? Awesome Ally Vee did rather well last time out in her first try over the synthetic surface.
I could be making a mistake in not slotting Quiero Mas into a higher position; but, in my opinion Quiero Mas shows all the signs of a filly with a lot of talent and not a lot of interest in competing. She'll keep hitting the board, as she's simply too good not to; but Quiero Mas strikes me as a horse that will also break a lot of hearts as she continues to settle for minor awards. But again, I could be wrong; and today just may be the day that Quiero Mas decides that winning is preferable to losing.
RACE 9 - The Holiday Cheer $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Visitant (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Ready for a Fight (ML 15-1)
# 5 Thanks Mr. Eidson (ML 10-1)
# 5 Thanks Mr. Eidson (ML 10-1)
# 6 Johnny Unleashed (ML 20-1)
# 8 Outadore (ML 7-2)+
Scratch # 1 Nobody Listens (ML 4-1)
So just how hard should you try to defeat what appears to be a legitimate Favorite? Visitant looks to be clearly the best in this field; perhaps not much the best, but clearly the best. Outadore certainly deserves consideration; but how much? Do you double the cost of your main ticket by including Outadore with Visitant in this leg? Or does Outadore deserve only the fifty-cent investment being given to other hope and a prayer entrants? I decided on the middle ground, giving Outadore the C+ ranking in this field.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Mucino (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Uncle Reg (ML 5-1)
# 9 Eye Witness (ML 4-1)+
C's
# 1 Royally Measured (ML 15-1)
# 3 Smart Prize (ML 20-1)
# 4 Quadra Island (ML 8-1)+
# 4 Quadra Island (ML 8-1)+
# 5 Southern Crush (ML 30-1)
# 6 Event Detail (ML 3-1)+
# 10 Face Value (ML 15-1)
# 11 First Class Harlow (ML 15-1)
# 12 Crossing (ML 20-1)
# 13 Ocean Pointe (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Good Soul (ML 30-1) and # 14 Yes Point (ML 15-1)
Not much to say here. Including everyone in some form or another just on a hunch; as I really don't like the chances of all, especially the first time runners (Royally Measured and Crossing). But, again, just a hunch that it may be better to spend an extra couple of bucks on the play rather than enduring any unnecessary agita later.
Trying something a little different with this new year; including how the above Selections look in chart form. Lemme know what you think:
OK, that's the analysis. Additional tweaking has been done to the ticket structure. So with all that, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 9 with 7 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,8 with 8,9 with 7 with 7,9 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,8 with 3,7,8,9 with 7 with 7,8,9 $30.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 11 with 8,9 with 7 with 7,9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 5,10 with 7 with 7,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 8,9 with 8 with 7,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 8,9 with 7 with 4,6 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 7 with 7 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 9 with 3,5,6 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 9 with 7 with 1,3,5,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $58.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 3:45 EST / 12:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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